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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic analysis and network design for CO 2 conversion to jet fuels in the United States

The conversion of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into jet fuel holds significant potential for reducing CO 2 emissions, providing an alternative to carbon-based resources, and offering a renewable means of energy storage. The objective of this study is to conduct a techno-economic analysis and optimize the supply chain network for converting CO 2 to jet fuel in the United States, aiming to minimize total costs while assessing the environmental and economic feasibility of two CO 2 conversion pathways. This first pathway is based on Fischer-Tropsch synthesis (FTS), and the other one is based on the valorization and upgrading of light methanol (MeOH). Incorporating spatial and techno-economic data, a mixed-integer linear programming model was developed to select source plants and conversion pathways, locations of conversion refinery sites, and the amount of captured CO 2 across the United States. The optimal results indicate that the FTS pathway is adopted at all selected refineries when the hydrogen price is 1000 dollars/t and the operating cost, mainly electricity used in conversion, is reduced to 5 % of its current level. Under this scenario, the total annual profit is 8 billion dollars, and the net carbon emissions are -88,783,284 tons. The sensitivity analyses reveal that the prices of electricity and hydrogen significantly contribute to total production costs. The CO 2 recycle percentage of the FTS pathway influences the choice of applied pathways at refineries. Additionally, a higher conversion rate holds a substantial promise for reducing the total production cost and can make the MeOH pathway a viable choice.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatial Optimization of Multiscale Biorefinery Deployment for a Diversified Bioeconomy in the United States

Strategic biorefinery siting is critical for a diversified bioeconomy, yet industry, policy, and research often focus on either large-scale biofuel plants or smaller-scale specialty bioproduct facilities, with limited coordination across scales. We address this gap by modeling biorefinery deployment spanning a 28-fold difference in capacity. We developed an open-source, spatially explicit framework integrating techno-economic analysis with logistics and refinery cost surrogate models to evaluate multiscale miscanthus-derived biorefineries across the rainfed U.S. for the production of ethanol, succinic acid, lactic acid, potassium sorbate, and acrylic acid. Overall costs change little as feedstock density increases, while transport distances decrease by ∼30 to 67% (∼100 km) and siting flexibility improves. Specifically, a 5-fold feedstock density increase (2% to 10% of suitable land) reduces minimum selling prices by <10% (e.g., 0.27 USD·gal –1 for ethanol). This limited economic sensitivity suggests dense planting is not required for competitive deployment, particularly for smaller-scale facilities. Representing collection areas as irregular rather than circular expands the feasible space under low-density scenarios. While large-scale refineries anchor regional supply chains, smaller facilities retain spatial flexibility even when large refineries are established. These findings highlight the importance of spatial representation and multiscale coordination for robust, regionally tailored biomanufacturing networks to advance renewable carbon integration without extensive land conversion.

biorefinery siting↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Separation-Enhanced Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry to Enable Increased Renewable Carbon Content in Transportation Fuels (CRADA 525)

Stable isotope ratio measurements of carbon atoms using isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) can be an effective tool for quantifying biogenic carbon in co-processed fuels, with results approaching the precision and accuracy of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). The lower cost of an IRMS may enable deployment to refineries, improving access and analysis turnaround times (≤2 hours), and, by extension, provide data that can allow process optimization to maximize renewable carbon in desired refinery products. This project explored the integration of chemical separation with IRMS analyses to enable highly detailed tracking of biogenic carbon into fuel product streams separated by boiling point range, chemical class, or specific compound. Forty-nine fuels and fuel components of fossil and biogenic origin, spanning gasoline and diesel boiling point ranges, were received from three refiners and were analyzed for their δ 13 C values via IRMS. Results spanned a 13 C range from ca. 10‰ to 44‰ and reflect materials derived from sustainable sources (e.g., C4 or C3 plants, animal-based pathways, syngas) or from fossil-derived fuels. Common ranges are approximately 18‰ to 9‰ and approximately 30‰ to 20‰ for C4 and C3 plants, respectively, and approximately 34‰ to 24‰ and approximately 70‰ to 33‰ for petroleum-derived fuels and methane, respectively. Fuel-like standards were developed and tested using direct-injection elemental analyzer (EA) IRMS for liquid fuels. This method was compared with the published methods, yielding statistically similar results. Four blend curve sets were produced ranging from 0% to 100% of a fuel containing biogenic carbon, focusing on 0% to 10% biogenic carbon. Linear fits were the most applicable for two of the four blend curve sets; however, two sets were found to exhibit slightly quadratic behavior, which was more pronounced in low biogenic blend samples, necessitating second-order fits. The origin of the slight quadratic behavior remains unclear; however, the discussion points to possible interpretations. CanmetENERGY thoroughly characterized a majority of the samples using one- and two-dimensional gas chromatography (GC and GC×GC, respectively) and other analyses. Selected samples were subjected to solid phase extraction (SPE) for saturate, olefin, aromatic, and polar (SOAP) analysis, and the resulting solvent-diluted fractions containing saturates and aromatics were returned to Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), where the solvent was removed via evaporation or physical separation using GC techniques. Characterization and separations provided an understanding of saturate and aromatic content, as well as boiling point ranges for each sample and sample fraction. Samples resulting from SPE were examined using EA-IRMS and gas chromatography combustion IRMS (GC-C-IRMS) analyses. Both approaches suggest that the range in values between end-members can be increased by selecting the paraffinic or aromatic fraction of the end-member or by selecting among individual compounds resulting from GC separation of the paraffinic fractions. Considerable work remains to put these approaches into practice and statistically validate the benefit for using a fraction or individual compound over bulk analysis of a sample. However, initial results suggest that separations provide advantages for samples having blend ratios of less than 10% biogenic blendstocks. 13 C results showed statistically similar biofuel blend results to those obtained at PNNL, although additional work is needed to obtain better reproducibility. Select samples were sent to Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for IRMS measurements and Beta Analytics for AMS measurements. This work suggests that IRMS and AMS yield closely comparable results and in some circumstances, IRMS could serve as a surrogate for AMS. While additional work is needed to better resolve statistical advantages for separations and better show the comparable nature of IRMS and AMS in both the biogenic carbon analysis of bulk chemical classes, initial results from this study suggest that these should be pursued in order to proliferate this approach for quantifying biogenic carbon in transportation fuels to the refinery level, thereby potentially enabling process optimization in co-processing scenarios.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Filling the Cellulosic Bio-economy Gap by Utilizing a Wedge Approach Combined with Stakeholder Collaboration

The price gap between the market and breakeven prices of cellulosic biomass for farmers represents a significant barrier to the development of a low-carbon cellulosic bioeconomy. Using a bottom-up, agent-based modeling tool that replicates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, this study analyzes the emergence of a cellulosic bioeconomy at the local scale through a wedge approach that examines an integrated portfolio of multiple policy options, including subsidies for small-scale bioproducts and environmental credits. The role of collaboration among multiple stakeholders, such as biomass producers (farmers), bio-refinery industry, government, and society, is assessed for filling the price gap. Using the Sangamon River Basin as a case study site, we evaluate the effectiveness of the wedge approach by comparing simulation results from multiple scenarios, each incorporating different combinations of bioeconomy wedges, with and without stakeholder collaboration. Results underscore that active collaboration among stakeholders acts as a catalyst enlarging the effectiveness of bioeconomy wedges. Including the carbon credits and environmental value in the policy portfolio is found to bridge the price gap through collective contributions from diverse stakeholders, where the cellulosic biofuel and bioproduct industry plays a pivotal role. Although this study is conducted at the local watershed scale, the methodology and findings offer valuable insights for market development in other watersheds and the potential scaling of local markets to regional and national levels.

Economics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analyzing Tradeoffs Associated with the Manufacture of Refined Fuels by Comparing Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Emissions Model Results with Carbon Impacts

A first-of-its kind, publicly-available model for estimating emissions of volatile organic compounds from operations along the supply chain of liquid fuels and refinery products is presented and demonstrated. This standardized model permits comprehensive, reproducible, and comparable evaluation of the supply chain/life cycle VOC emissions of liquid fuels and refinery products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

2016 U.S. Petroleum Fuels Life Cycle Baseline

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has performed a well-to-wheels life cycle assessment (LCA) of petroleum production and refining for the United States (US), both from international and domestic oil sources. This analysis largely follows the same methods and framework established by Cooney et al., which performed a greenhouse gas (GHG) LCA of crude products for the 2014 data year (Cooney et al., 2017). Results are presented for six major petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil, coke, bunker/residual fuel oil) across each of the five Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs) and at the national US level. However, there are at least seven other refinery outputs (liquified petroleum gas, refinery fuel gas, hydrogen, petrochemical feedstocks, asphalt, sulfur) that are modeled but not shown in this report for brevity. Petroleum product amounts are compared against those reported by US Energy Information Administration (EIA) for each region.

02 PETROLEUM↗
NASA NTRS1977

Alternative fuels

Potential problems related to the use of alternative aviation turbine fuels are discussed and both ongoing and required research into these fuels is described. This discussion is limited to aviation turbine fuels composed of liquid hydrocarbons. The advantages and disadvantages of the various solutions to the problems are summarized. The first solution is to continue to develop the necessary technology at the refinery to produce specification jet fuels regardless of the crude source. The second solution is to minimize energy consumption at the refinery and keep fuel costs down by relaxing specifications.

Grobman, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Model for refining operations

Program predicts production volumes of petroleum refinery products, with particular emphasis on aircraft-turbine fuel blends and their key properties. It calculates capital and operating costs for refinery and its margin of profitability. Program also includes provisions for processing of synthetic crude oils from oil shale and coal liquefaction processes and contains highly-detailed blending computations for alternative jet-fuel blends of varying endpoint specifications.

Dunbar, D. N.↗
NASA NTRS1978

High performance, high density hydrocarbon fuels

The fuels were selected from 77 original candidates on the basis of estimated merit index and cost effectiveness. The ten candidates consisted of 3 pure compounds, 4 chemical plant streams and 3 refinery streams. Critical physical and chemical properties of the candidate fuels were measured including heat of combustion, density, and viscosity as a function of temperature, freezing points, vapor pressure, boiling point, thermal stability. The best all around candidate was found to be a chemical plant olefin stream rich in dicyclopentadiene. This material has a high merit index and is available at low cost. Possible problem areas were identified as low temperature flow properties and thermal stability. An economic analysis was carried out to determine the production costs of top candidates. The chemical plant and refinery streams were all less than 44 cent/kg while the pure compounds were greater than 44 cent/kg. A literature survey was conducted on the state of the art of advanced hydrocarbon fuel technology as applied to high energy propellents. Several areas for additional research were identified.

Frankenfeld, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Jet fuel property changes and their effect on producibility and cost in the U.S., Canada, and Europe

The effects of changes in properties and blending stocks on the refinery output and cost of jet fuel in the U.S., Canada, and Europe were determined. Computerized refinery models that minimize production costs and incorporated a 1981 cost structure and supply/demand projections to the year 2010 were used. Except in the West U.S., no changes in jet fuel properties were required to meet all projected demands, even allowing for deteriorating crude qualities and changes in competing product demand. In the West U.S., property changes or the use of cracked blendstocks were projected to be required after 1990 to meet expected demand. Generally, relaxation of aromatics and freezing point, or the use of cracked stocks produced similar results, i.e., jet fuel output could be increased by up to a factor of three or its production cost lowered by up to $10/cu m. High quality hydrocracked stocks are now used on a limited basis to produce jet fuel. The conversion of U.S. and NATO military forces from wide-cut to kerosene-based jet fuel is addressed. This conversion resulted in increased costs of several hundred million dollars annually. These costs can be reduced by relaxing kerosene jet fuel properties, using cracked stocks and/or considering the greater volumetric energy content of kerosene jet fuel.

Varga, G. M., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1989

High speed commercial transport fuels considerations and research needs

NASA is currently evaluating the potential of incorporating High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft in the commercial fleet in the beginning of the 21st century. NASA sponsored HSCT enabling studies currently underway with airframers and engine manufacturers, are addressing a broad range of technical, environmental, economic, and related issues. Supersonic cruise speeds for these aircraft were originally focused in the Mach 2 to 5 range. At these flight speeds, both jet fuels and liquid methane were considered potential fuel candidates. For the year 2000 to 2010, cruise Mach numbers of 2 to 3+ are projected for aircraft fuel with thermally stable liquid jet fuels. For 2015 and beyond, liquid methane fueled aircraft cruising at Mach numbers of 4+ may be viable candidates. Operation at supersonic speeds will be much more severe than those encountered at subsonic flight. One of the most critical problems is the potential deterioration of the fuel due to the high temperature environment. HSCT fuels will not only be required to provide the energy necessary for flight, but will also be subject to aerodynamic heating and, will be required to serve as the primary heat sink for cooling the engine and airframe. To define fuel problems for high speed flight, a fuels workshop was conducted at NASA Lewis Research Center. The purpose of the workshop was to gather experts on aviation fuels, airframe fuel systems, airport infrastructure, and combustion systems to discuss high speed fuel alternatives, fuel supply scenarios, increased thermal stability approaches and measurements, safety considerations, and to provide directional guidance for future R and D efforts. Subsequent follow-up studies defined airport infrastructure impacts of high speed fuel candidates. The results of these activities are summarized. In addition, an initial case study using modified in-house refinery simulation model Gordian code (1) is briefly discussed. This code can be used to simulate different types of refineries, emphasizing jet fuel production and relative cost factors.

Lee, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1946

Effect of Fuel Composition, Engine Operating Variables, and Spark-Plug Type and Condition on Preignition-Limited Performance of an R-2800 Cylinder

The preignition characteristics of the R-2800 cylinder, as effected by fuel consumption, engine operating variables, and spark plug type and condition, were evaluated. The effects on preignition-limited performance of various percentages of aromatics (benzene, toluene, cumene, xylene) in a base fuel of triptane were investigated. Two paraffins (triptane and S + 6.0 ml TEL/gal) and two refinery blends (28-R and 33-R) were preignition rated. The effect of changes in the following engine operating variables on preignition limit was determined: inlet-air temperature, rear spark plug gasket temperature, engine speed, spark advance, tappet clearance, and oil consumption. Preignition limits of the R-2800 cylinder using Champion C34S and C35S and AC-LS86, LS87, and LS88 spark plugs were established and the effect of spark plug deterioration was investigated. No definite trends in preignition-limited indicated mean effective pressure were indicated for aromatics as a class when increased percentages of different aromatics were added to a base fuel of triptane. Three types of fuel (aromatics, paraffins, and refinery blends) showed a preignition range for this cylinder from 65 to 104 percent when based on the performance of S plus 6.0 ml TEL per gallon as 100 percent. The R-2800 cylinder is therefore relatively insensitive to fuel composition when compared to a CFR F-4 engine, which had a pre-ignition range from 72 to 100 percent for the same fuels. Six engine operating variables were investigated with the following results: preignition-limited indicated mean effective pressure decreased, with increases in engine speed, rear spark plug gasket temperature, inlet-air temperature, and spark advance beyond 20 F B.T.C. and was unaffected by rate of oil consumption or by tappet clearance. Spark plugs were rated over a range of preignition-limited indicated mean effective pressure from 200 to 390 pounds per square inch at a fuel-air ratio of 0.07 in the following order of increased resistance to preignition: AC-LS97, AC-LS88, Champion C358, AC-LS86, and Champion C34S. Spark plug deterioration in the form of cracks in the porcelain had been broken away from the center electrode and were retained in the spark plug cavity, the preignition limit was decreased as much as 57 percent. When the broken pieces had been removed, the preignition limit increased from that of the undamaged porcelain as the weight of removed porcelain was increased.

Pfender, John F.↗
NASA NTRS2016

NASA's Hydrogen Outpost: The Rocket Systems Area at Plum Brook Station

"There was pretty much a general knowledge about hydrogen and its capabilities," recalled former researcher Robert Graham. "The question was, could you use it in a rocket engine? Do we have the technology to handle it? How will it cool? Will it produce so much heat release that we can't cool the engine? These were the questions that we had to address." The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Glenn Research Center, referred to historically as the Lewis Research Center, made a concerted effort to answer these and related questions in the 1950s and 1960s. The center played a critical role transforming hydrogen's theoretical potential into a flight-ready propellant. Since then NASA has utilized liquid hydrogen to send humans and robots to the Moon, propel dozens of spacecraft across the universe, orbit scores of satellite systems, and power 135 space shuttle flights. Rocket pioneers had recognized hydrogen's potential early on, but its extremely low boiling temperature and low density made it impracticable as a fuel. The Lewis laboratory first demonstrated that liquid hydrogen could be safely utilized in rocket and aircraft propulsion systems, then perfected techniques to store, pump, and cleanly burn the fuel, as well as use it to cool the engine. The Rocket Systems Area at Lewis's remote testing area, Plum Brook Station, played a little known, but important role in the center's hydrogen research efforts. This publication focuses on the activities at the Rocket Systems Area, but it also discusses hydrogen's role in NASA's space program and Lewis's overall hydrogen work. The Rocket Systems Area included nine physically modest test sites and three test stands dedicated to liquid-hydrogen-related research. In 1962 Cleveland Plain Dealer reporter Karl Abram claimed, "The rocket facility looks more like a petroleum refinery. Its test rigs sprout pipes, valves and tanks. During the night test runs, excess hydrogen is burned from special stacks in the best Oklahoma oil field tradition." Besides the Rocket Systems Area, Plum Brook Station also included a nuclear test reactor, a large vacuum tank, a hypersonic wind tunnel, and a full-scale upper-stage rocket stand. The Rocket Systems Area operated from 1961 until NASA shut down all of Plum Brook in 1974. The center reopened Plum Brook in the late 1980s and continues to use several test facilities. The Rocket Systems Area, however, was not restored. Today Plum Brook resembles a nature preserve more than an oil refinery. Lush fields and forests separate the large test facilities. Until recently, the abandoned Rocket Systems Area structures and equipment were visible amongst the greenery. These space-age ruins, particularly the three towers, stood as silent sentinels over the sparsely populated reservation. Few knew the story of these mysterious facilities when NASA removed them in the late 2000s.

Rocket Systems↗
NASA NTRS2019

Ceramic Industry at Morbi as a Large Source of SO2 Emissions in India

Observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI), onboard the NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura satellite, reveal a large SO2 "hotspot" over Morbi, Gujarat, India, while the available emissions inventories do not report any major sources in this region. There are no industries that are typically associated with the elevated SO2 such as large power plants, smelters, or oil refineries in the Morbi region. Our analysis shows that the elevated SO2 source is attributed to the ceramic industries in an area of ~7 × 7 km2 near the city. OMI-estimated SO2 emissions from the Morbi ceramic industries have been near or above 100 kt y1 since 2009, which are similar to emission levels from larger Indian oil refineries (such as Essar and Jamnagar) and power stations (such as Mundra Thermal Power Station and Ultra Mega Power Plant) located in Gujarat, India. According to OMI measurements, the SO2 emissions from the Morbi ceramic industries are presently five times higher than they were in 2005. This study demonstrates that in the absence of any other information about SO2 emissions from the ceramic industry, these satellite-based estimates can fill the gap in emission inventories in a timely fashion.

S K Kharol↗
DOE OSTI2026

Simultaneous Determination of Halogens and Metals in Waste Plastic Pyrolysis Oil by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry

A major barrier to integrating pyrolysis-derived oil into conventional refinery technology is the presence of impurities, particularly halogens and metals, that can deactivate catalysts. This study presents a novel, cost-effective approach for the simultaneous analysis of a subset of halogens, metals, nonmetals, and metalloids in complex, industrially relevant distilled pyrolysis oil samples, this was previously achievable only through multiple techniques. Excellent results were obtained using a widely accessible inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) method with helium gas mode and standard laboratory consumables, enabling high-throughput analysis and efficient evaluation of adsorbent performance. Sample preparation is straightforward, requiring only dilution in a compatible matrix, and provides accurate and precise quantification, with 75%–137% spike recovery for Be, Ti, V, Cr, Fe, Ni, Co, Cu, As, Se, Mo, Cd, Sb, Tl, and Pb, and 62%–65% spike recovery for Cl and 109%–133% spike recovery for Br. Additionally, an enhanced version of the method using ICP-MS/MS and hydrogen gas is described, which has higher accuracy with 69%–112% spike recovery for Be, B, Ti, V, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, As, Se, Mo, Cd, Sb, Tl, and Pb, with 85%–102% spike recovery for Cl and 63%–93% spike recovery for Br. Helium mode detection limits for industrially relevant elements (V, Fe, Ni, Cu, As, and Pb) are less than 1.7 µg/kg, and less than 0.2 mg/kg for Br and Cl. Furthermore, this methodology facilitates rapid systematic evaluation of adsorption capacities of materials under time-on-stream conditions and supports robust comparisons across diverse operating environments.

Lazarcik, James [University of Wisconsin-Madison, ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogenolysis Versus Hydrocracking for Polyolefin Upcycling

Global plastic production has reached 413.8 million metric tons in 2024 and is forecasted to surpass 1.2 billion metric tons by 2050. Polyolefins, mainly polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), dominate single-use packaging and account for approximately 55% of global plastic waste. The chemical inertness that makes these materials desirable for commercial applications also renders them persistent in the environment. Current recycling technologies have proven to be insufficient to divert plastic waste from landfills or environmental loss due to technical limitations and poor economic incentives. Conventional mechanical recycling is a form of downcycling, in which the polymer remelting process results in products with inferior material properties and reduced market value. Pyrolysis, a thermochemical route used for the chemical recycling of plastic wastes into refinery feedstock, requires severe conditions, typically 400–600 °C in an oxygen-free environment. The high temperature drives up energy costs and produces a wide range of poorly defined products, including undesirable light gases and heavy tars that pose challenges for downstream processing. As an alternative, catalytic chemical recycling offers a promising route for converting waste polyolefins back into value-added hydrocarbons—such as fuels, lubricant base oils, and other chemical feedstocks—at temperatures typically below 300 °C. This opinion article focuses on two dominant pathways in heterogeneous catalysis that are used to cleave the C–C bonds of polyolefins: hydrogenolysis and hydrocracking. Both catalytic pathways have the potential to selectively convert polyolefin waste into valuable fuels and chemical feedstocks under mild conditions. Notably, while hydrocracking primarily yields branched hydrocarbon products, hydrogenolysis predominantly produces linear hydrocarbons. Here, we compare the mechanisms and catalyst designs for hydrocracking and hydrogenolysis, analyze critical technical challenges from catalyst stability to process engineering, and provide an outlook on how these complementary pathways can be used to repurpose plastic waste into valuable products.

Zhang, Ruoxi [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United S↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-objective Decisions on Integrated Energy Systems Planning and Operation for Industrial Combined Heat and Power Supply

Unlike the power sector—which can transmit electricity over long distances via established grids—the industrial sector poses a unique challenge due to its geographically concentrated large-scale heat processes. Enhancing energy security in such industrial parks provides a dual benefit: reduced exposure to volatile fossil fuel prices and improved economic viability, largely driven by economies of scale in energy supply and distribution. This study presents a comprehensive technoeconomic analysis of a nuclear energy hub, employing a mechanism-focused approach to evaluate uncertainties in operational strategies and capacity optimization. Load profiles from three major energy intesive industries—chemical, refinery, and steelmaking—are examined, each presenting unique challenges and opportunities for nuclear energy integration. We adopt a multi-objective optimization framework, converting multiple objectives into a single objective function through the e-constraint method. The findings highlight clear trade-offs between system conditions and varying levels of energy independence. Overall, this analysis is granular enough to address industry-specific concerns yet sufficiently generalizable to provide actionable insights into the feasibility of nuclear-based clean heat solutions for the industrial sector.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Filling the cellulosic bio-economy gap by utilizing a wedge approach combined with stakeholder collaboration

The price gap between the market and breakeven prices of cellulosic biomass for farmers represents a significant barrier to the development of a low-carbon cellulosic bioeconomy. Using a bottom-up, agent-based modeling tool that replicates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, this study analyzes the emergence of a cellulosic bioeconomy at the local scale through a wedge approach that examines an integrated portfolio of multiple policy options, including subsidies for small-scale bioproducts and environmental credits. Here, the role of collaboration among multiple stakeholders, such as biomass producers (farmers), bio-refinery industry, government, and society, is assessed for filling the price gap. Using the Sangamon River Basin as a case study site, we evaluate the effectiveness of the wedge approach by comparing simulation results from multiple scenarios, each incorporating different combinations of bioeconomy wedges, with and without stakeholder collaboration. Results underscore that active collaboration among stakeholders acts as a catalyst enlarging the effectiveness of bioeconomy wedges. Including the carbon credits and environmental value in the policy portfolio is found to bridge the price gap through collective contributions from diverse stakeholders, where the cellulosic biofuel and bioproduct industry plays a pivotal role. Although this study is conducted at the local watershed scale, the methodology and findings offer valuable insights for market development in other watersheds and the potential scaling of local markets to regional and national levels.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗