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Measurement and interpretation of crustal deformation rates associated with postglacial rebound

This project involves obtaining GPS measurements in Scandinavia and using the measurements to estimate the viscosity profile of the earth's mantle and to correct tide-gauge measurements for the rebound effect. We report on several aspects of this project. The DSGS was not scheduled to be reoccupied with DOSE receivers during the report period. The permanent network set up by Onsala Space Observatory continues to operate, and the data are being evaluated. An important technical advance we intend for this project is to use the full three dimensional site velocity information for inferring geophysical parameters. During the report period, two papers have been been accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research and will be published in April. Reprints of these papers are contained in the Appendix.

Davis, James L.↗

Measurement and Interpretation of Crustal Deformation Rates Associated with Postglacial Rebound

This project involves obtaining GPS measurements in Scandinavia, and using the measurements to estimate the viscosity profile of the Earth's mantle and to correct tide-gauge measurements for the rebound effect. Many aspects of this project have been reported in the literature (see Section III). In Section II, we report on the primary geodetic results from this project.

Davis, James L.↗

Research on Earth's rotation and the effect of atmospheric pressure on vertical deformation and sea level variability

The work done under NASA grant NAG5-485 included modelling the deformation of the earth caused by variations in atmospheric pressure. The amount of deformation near coasts is sensitive to the nature of the oceanic response to the pressure. The PSMSL (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level) data suggest the response is inverted barometer at periods greater than a couple months. Green's functions were constructed to describe the perturbation of the geoid caused by atmospheric and oceanic loading and by the accompanying load-induced deformation. It was found that perturbation of up to 2 cm are possible. Ice mass balance data was used for continental glaciers to look at the glacial contributions to time-dependent changes in polar motion, the lod, the earth's gravitational field, the position of the earth's center-of-mass, and global sea level. It was found that there can be lateral, non-hydrostatic structure inside the fluid core caused by gravitational forcing from the mantle, from the inner core, or from topography at the core/mantle or inner core/outer core boundaries. The nutational and tidal response of a non-hydrostatic earth with a solid inner core was modeled. Monthly, global tide gauge data from PSMSL was used to look at the 18.6-year ocean tide, the 14-month pole tide, the oceanic response to pressure, the linear trend and inter-annual variability in the earth's gravity field, the global sea level rise, and the effects of post glacial rebound. The effects of mantle anelasticity on nutations, earth tides, and tidal variation in the lod was modeled. Results of this model can be used with Crustal Dynamics observations to look at the anelastic dissipation and dispersion at tidal periods. The effects of surface topography on various components of crustal deformation was also modeled, and numerical models were developed of post glacial rebound.

Wahr, John↗

Effects on post-glacial rebound from the hard rheology in the transition zone

The effect of an increase of viscosity in the earth-mantle's transition zone between 420 and 670 km on the geophysical signatures induced by postglacial rebound was analyzed using a self-gravitating model consisting of an elastic lithosphere, a three-layer viscoelastic mantle, and an inviscid core. Results show that the horizontal displacements and velocities as well as the stress pattern are extremely sensitive to the viscosity increase and to the chemical stratification of the transition zone. The findings indicate that geodetic data on intraplate deformation can be used to put constraints on the viscosity increase in the transition zone and on the amount of chemical stratification in the mantle.

Spada, Giorgio↗

Global Velocities from VLBI

Precise geodetic Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) measurements have been made since 1979 at about 130 points on all major tectonic plates, including stable interiors and deformation zones. From the data set of about 2900 observing sessions and about 2.3 million observations, useful three-dimensional velocities can be derived for about 80 sites using an incremental least-squares adjustment of terrestrial, celestial, Earth rotation and site/session-specific parameters. The long history and high precision of the data yield formal errors for horizontal velocity as low as 0.1 mm/yr, but the limitation on the interpretation of individual site velocities is the tie to the terrestrial reference frame. Our studies indicate that the effect of converting precise relative VLBI velocities to individual site velocities is an error floor of about 0.4 mm/yr. Most VLBI horizontal velocities in stable plate interiors agree with the NUVEL-1A model, but there are significant departures in Africa and the Pacific. Vertical precision is worse by a factor of 2-3, and there are significant non-zero values that can be interpreted as post-glacial rebound, regional effects, and local disturbances.

Ma, Chopo↗

Postglacial rebound observed by Lageos and the effective viscosity of the lower mantle

Sixty-four observations of the orbital node made by the Lageos satellite over a five year time interval reveal an acceleration of (-8.1 + or 1.8) x 10 to the -8 power arcseconds day/2 due to a source which is not presently modeled in the GEODYN orbit determination computer program. This acceleration cannot be explained by the ocean tide with 18.6 year period, assuming it to be an equilibrium tide. Instead it seems to be due to postglacial rebound, which changes the J(2) coefficient in the spherical harmonic expansion of the earth's gravitational field at the rate of (-8.2 + or - 18) x 10 to the -19th power/s; this in turn accelerates the node. This rate does not agree with the -32 x 10 to the -19th power/s predicted by Wu and Peltier's (1982) L2 model, which has upper and lower mantle effective viscosities of 10 to the 21st and 22nd powers Pa's, respectively. it does agree well with their L1 model, which gives about 10 x 10 to the 19th power/s. Since the effective viscosity is 10 to the 21st power Pa s throughout the entire mantle in the L1 model, the results support the contentions that the effective viscosity is near 10 to the 21st power Pa s everywhere in the mantle, and this relatively low value for the effective viscosity may have permitted several degrees of polar wander due to glaciation during the Quaternary Ice Age.

Rubincam, D. P.↗

Postglacial rebound observed by Lageos and the effective viscosity of the lower mantle

Sixty-four observations of the orbital node made by the Lageos satellite over a five year time interval reveal an acceleration of (-8.1 + or - 1.8) x 10 to the -8 power arcseconds day/2 due to a source which is not presently modeled in the GEODYN orbit determination computer program. This acceleration cannot be explained by the ocean tide with 18.6 year period, assuming it to be an equilibrium tide. Instead it seems to be due to postglacial rebound, which changes the J(2) coefficient in the spherical harmonic expansion of the earth's gravitational field at the rate of (-8.2 + or - 18) x 10 to the -19th power/s; this in turn accelerates the node. This rate does not agree with the -32 x 10 to the -19th power/s predicted by Wu and Peltier's (1982) L2 model, which has upper and lower mantle effective viscosities of 10 to the 21st and 22nd powers Pa's, respectively. It does agree well with their L1 model, which gives about 10 x 10 to the 19th power/s. Since the effective viscosity is 10 to the 21st power Pa s throughout the entire mantle in the L1 model, the results support the contentions that the efective viscosity is near 10 to the 21st power Pa s everyhere in the mantle, and this relatively low value for the effective viscosity may have permitted several degrees of polar wander due to glaciation during the Quaternary Ice Age. Previously announced in STAR as N84-13705

Rubincam, D. P.↗

Modeling suggests SARS-CoV-2 rebound after nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment is driven by target cell preservation coupled with incomplete viral clearance

In a subset of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals treated with the antiviral nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, the virus rebounds following treatment. The mechanisms driving this rebound are not well understood. We used a mathematical model to describe the longitudinal viral load dynamics of 51 individuals treated with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, 20 of whom rebounded. Target cell preservation, either by a robust innate immune response or initiation of N-R near the time of symptom onset, coupled with incomplete viral clearance, appears to be the main factor leading to viral rebound. Moreover, the occurrence of viral rebound is likely influenced by the time of treatment initiation relative to the progression of the infection, with earlier treatments leading to a higher chance of rebound. A comparison with an untreated cohort suggests that early treatments with nirmatrelvir-ritonavir may be associated with a delay in the onset of an adaptive immune response. Nevertheless, our model demonstrates that extending the course of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment to a 10-day regimen may greatly diminish the chance of rebound in people with mild-to-moderate COVID-19 and who are at high risk of progression to severe disease. Altogether, our results suggest that in some individuals, a standard 5-day course of nirmatrelvir-ritonavir starting around the time of symptom onset may not completely eliminate the virus. Thus, after treatment ends, the virus can rebound if an effective adaptive immune response has not fully developed. These findings on the role of target cell preservation and incomplete viral clearance also offer a possible explanation for viral rebounds following other antiviral treatments for SARS-CoV-2.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Stress Testing California's Hydroclimatic Whiplash: Potential Challenges, Trade‐Offs and Adaptations in Water Management and Hydropower Generation

Abstract Inter‐annual precipitation in California is highly variable, and future projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic “whiplash.” Understanding the implications of these shocks on California's water system and its degree of resiliency is critical from a planning perspective. Therefore, we quantify the resilience of reservoir services provided by water and hydropower systems in four basins in the western Sierra Nevada. Using downscaled runoff from 10 climate model outputs, we generated 200 synthetic hydrologic whiplash sequences of alternating dry and wet years to represent a wide range of extremes and transitional conditions used as inputs to a water system simulation model. Sequences were derived from upper (wet) and lower (dry) quintiles of future streamflow projections (2030–2060). Results show that carryover storage was negatively affected in all basins, particularly in those with lower storage capacity. All basins experienced negative impacts on hydropower generation, with losses ranging from 5% to nearly 90%. Reservoir sizes and inflexible operating rules are a particular challenge for flood control, as in extremely wet years spillage averaged nearly the annual basins' total discharge. The reliability of environmental flows and agricultural deliveries varied depending on the basin, intensity, and duration of whiplash sequences. Overall, wet years temporarily rebound negative drought effects, and greater storage capacity results in higher reliability and resiliency, and lesser volatility in services. We highlight potential policy changes to improve flexibility, increase resilience, and better equip managers to face challenges posed by whiplash while meeting human and environmental needs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Spectroscopic analysis of global tide gauge sea level data

Yearly and monthly global tide-gage sea-level data are fitted to numerically generated tidal data in order to search for the 18.6-yr lunar nodal tide and 14-month pole tide. Both of these tides are clearly evident, with amplitudes and phases that are consistent with a global equilibrium response. The ocean's response to atmospheric pressure is studied with the least-squares fit technique. Consideration is given to the global rise in sea level, the effects of postglacial rebound, and the possible causes of the enhanced pole tides in the North Sea, the Baltic Sea, and the Gulf of Bothnia. The results support O'Connor's (1986) suggestion that the enhanced pole tide in these regions is due to meteorological forcing rather than a basin-scale resonance. Also, the global average of the tide-gage data show an increase in sea level over tha last 80 yr of between 1.1 and 1.9 mm/yr.

Trupin, A.↗

Unified model of short- and long-term HIV viral rebound for clinical trial planning

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. Typically suspension of therapy is rapidly followed by rebound of viral loads to high, pre-therapy levels. Indeed, a recent study showed that approximately 90% of treatment interruption study participants show viral rebound within at most a few months of therapy suspension, but the remaining 10%, showed viral rebound some months, or years, after ART suspension. Some may even never rebound. We investigate and compare branching process models aimed at gaining insight into these viral dynamics. Specifically, we provide a theory that explains both short- and long-term viral rebounds, and post-treatment control, via a multitype branching process with time-inhomogeneous rates, validated with data from Li et al. We discuss the associated biological interpretation and implications of our best-fit model. To test the effectiveness of an experimental intervention in delaying or preventing rebound, the standard practice is to suspend therapy and monitor the study participants for rebound. We close with a discussion of an important application of our modelling in the design of such clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Orthogonal stack of global tide gauge sea level data

Yearly and monthly tide gauge sea level data from around the globe are fitted to numerically generated equilibrium tidal data to search for the 18.6 year lunar tide and 14 month pole tide. Both tides are clearly evident in the results, and their amplitudes and phases are found to be consistent with a global equilibrium response. Global, monthly sea level data from outside the Baltic sea and Gulf of Bothnia are fitted to global atmospheric pressure data to study the response of the ocean to pressure fluctuations. The response is found to be inverted barometer at periods greater than two months. Global averages of tide gauge data, after correcting for the effects of post glacial rebound on individual station records, reveal an increase in sea level over the last 80 years of between 1.1 mm/yr and 1.9 mm/yr.

Trupin, A.↗

Trajectories and energy transfer of saltating particles onto rock surfaces : application to abrasion and ventifact formation on Earth and Mars

The interaction between saltating sand grains and rock surfaces is assessed to gauge relative abrasion potential as a function of rock shape, wind speed, grain size, and planetary environment. Many kinetic energy height profiles for impacts exhibit a distinctive increase, or kink, a few centimeters above the surface, consistent with previous field, wind tunnel, and theoretical investigations. The height of the kink observed in natural and wind tunnel settings is greater than predictions by a factor of 2 or more, probably because of enhanced bouncing off hard ground surfaces. Rebounded grains increase the effective flux and relative kinetic energy for intermediate slope angles. Whether abrasion occurs, as opposed to simple grain impact with little or no mass lost from the rock, depends on whether the grain kinetic energy (EG) exceeds a critical value (EC), as well as the flux of grains with energies above EC. The magnitude of abrasion and the shape change of the rock over time depends on this flux and the value of EG > EC. Considering the potential range of particle sizes and wind speeds, the predicted kinetic energies of saltating sand hitting rocks overlap on Earth and Mars. However, when limited to the most likely grain sizes and threshold conditions, our results agree with previous work and show that kinetic energies are about an order of magnitude greater on Mars.

planet sufraces↗

The Transition From Rebound to Bonding in High-Velocity Metallic Microparticle Impacts: Jetting-Associated Power-Law Divergence

A metallic microparticle impacting a metallic substrate with sufficiently high velocity will adhere, assisted by the emergence of jetting—the splash-like extrusion of solid matter at the periphery of the impact. In this work, we compare real-time observations of high-velocity single-microparticle impacts to an elastic–plastic model to develop a more thorough understanding of the transition between the regimes of rebound and bonding. We first extract an effective dynamic yield strength for copper from prior experiments impacting alumina spheres onto copper substrates. We then use this dynamic yield strength to analyze impacts of copper particles on copper substrates. We find that up to moderate impact velocities, impacts and rebound velocities follow a power-law behavior well-predicted on the basis of elastic-perfectly plastic analysis and can be captured well with a single value for the dynamic strength that subsumes many details not explicitly modeled (rate and hardening effects and adiabatic heating). However, the rebound behavior diverges from the power-law at higher impact velocities approaching bonding, where jetting sets on. This divergence is associated with additional lost kinetic energy, which goes into the ejection of the material associated with jetting and into breaking incipient bonds between the particle and substrate. These results further support and develop the idea that jetting facilitates bonding where a critical amount of bond formation is required to effect permanent particle deposition and prevent the particle from rebounding.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Monitoring Global Sea Level: Eustatic Variations, Local Variations, and Solid Earth Effects

Project BIFROST (Baseline Inferences for Fennoscandian Rebound Observations. Sea-level and Tectonics) combines networks of continuously operating CPS receivers in Sweden and Finland to measure ongoing crustal deformation due to glacial isostatic adjustment, (CIA). We present an analysis of data collected in the years 1993-1998. We compare the CPS determinations of three-dimensional crustal motion to predictions calculated using the high resolution Fennoscandian deglaciation model recently proposed by Lambeck et al. We find that the the maximum observed uplift rate (approx. 10 mm/ yr) and the maximum predicted uplift rate agree to better than 1 mm/ yr. The patterns of uplift also agree quite well, although differences are discernible. The chi(exp 2) difference between predicted and GPS-observed radial rates is reduced by a factor of 5-6 compared to that for the "null" (no uplift) model, depending on whether a mean difference is first removed. The north components of velocity agree at about the same relative level. whereas the agreement for the east components is worse, a problem possibly related to the lack of bias fixing. We have also compared the values for the observed radial deformation rates to those based on sea-level rates from Baltic tide gauges. The weighted RMS difference between CPS and tide-gauge rates (after removing a mean) is 0.6 mm/ yr, giving an indication of the combined accuracy of the CPS and tide-gauge measurement systems. Spectral analysis of the time series of position estimates yields spectral indices in the range -1 to -2. An EOF analysis indicates, however, that much of this power is correlated among the sites. The correlation appears to be regional and falls off only slightly with distance. Some of this correlated noise is associated with snow accumulation on the antennas or, for those antennas with radomes, on the radomes. This problem has caused us to modify the radomes used several times, leading to one of our more significant sources of uncertainty.

Davis, James L.↗

Constraints on the rheological structure of the mantle

Rheological models of the mantle are at present limited to radial symmetry, usually with homogeneous linearly viscous or viscoelastic incompressible layers. While such models are probably overly simple, they readily allow calculation of geophysical effects, such as post glacial rebound and related changes in the Earth's shape. They are also directly applicable to problems of global mantle flow and plate motions.

Oconnell, R. J.↗

Mechanical and Structural Behavior of Granular Material Packed Beds for Space Life Support System Applications

Long-term human mission to space, such as living in International Space Station (ISS), Lunar, and Martian bases, and travel to Mars, must m ake use of Advanced Life Support Systems (ALSS) to generate and recycle critical life supporting elements like oxygen and water. Oxygen Gen eration Assembly (OGA) and Water Processor Assembly (WPA), critical c omponents of ALSS, make use of series of granular material packed beds for generation and recycling of oxygen and water. Several granular m aterials can be used for generation, recycling, processing and recovery of oxygen and water. For example, they may include soft bed media, e.g. ion exchange resins for oxygen generation assembly and hard bed media such as, activated alumina, magchem (Magnesium oxide) and activa ted carbon to remove organic species like ethanol, methanol, and urea from wastewater in Water recovery/processing assembly. These beds are generally packed using a plate-spring mechanism to provide sufficien t compaction to the bed media throughout the course of operation. This paper presents results from an experimental study of a full-scale, 3 8.1 cm (15 inches) long and 3.7 cm (1.44 inches) diameter. activated alumina bed enclosed in a cylinder determining its force-displacement behavior, friction mobilizing force, and axial normal stress distribu tion under various axially applied loads and at different levels of packing. It is observed that force-displacement behavior is non-linear for low compaction level and becomes linear with increase in compaction of the bed media. Axial normal stress distribution along the length of the bed media decreased non-linearly with increase in depth from the loading end of the granular media. This paper also presents experimental results on the amount of particulates generated corresponding to various compaction levels. Particulates generated from each of the tests were measured using standard US sieves. It was found that the p articulates and the overall displacement of the bed media increased with decrease in initial compaction of the bed media. This effect could be attributed to the greater tendency for inter-particle sliding/rub bing due to smaller internal friction angles, as seen from the shear tests, at lesser initial compacted levels. Upon unloading, it was obse rved that there was no change in displacement (especially rebounding) in the bed media. This effect could be attributed to the fact that th e porous activated alumina particles fracture/break upon increase in applied load (during loading phase) and occupy void spaces in between the material grains; thereby leading to settling of the media. The lo ad-displacement curve becomes more linear with increase in initial compaction of the bed media. It is concluded that compaction considerabl y affects the load-displacement behavior of the bed media. A series of tests were also conducted on the packed bed media to determine the f orce required to mobilize the friction between the bed media and the housing cylinder. The results from these tests showed the existence of significant friction between the bed media and the encasing stainles s steel cylinder. Further, it was found that friction effects were more pronounced for media with higher initial compaction. Internal frict ion of the granular media was measured using direct shear apparatus. It was observed that the internal friction increased with increase in initial compaction of the bed media. In this study, a computational m odel (CM) is also developed using finite element software ANSYS to verify experimental results obtained for the distribution of the axial n ormal stress and axial displacement along the length of the full-scal e activated alumina bed media. In the computational model, the granular material is considered to have appropriate failure and frictional c ontact exists between the wall and the granular media. It is observed that the model predicts results closely with the experimental method. The compational results show that the axial normal stress distribution along the length of the activated alumina media decreases non-linea rly from the loading end and is negligible beyond a certain depth. Th is can be attributed to the existence of friction between the walls and the media and that the friction takes up most of the applied load.

Malla, Ramesh B.↗

Results of a Soil Flushing Treatability Test for Hanford Site Hexavalent Chromium Removal - 20446

U.S. Department of Energy contractor CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company has made significant progress remediating hexavalent chromium in groundwater near the Columbia River through the operation of pump and treat facilities and source removal activities. To mitigate risks associated with hexavalent chromium contamination, which was identified in a CERCLA interim action record of decision as the primary groundwater contaminant of concern for the 100-KR-4 Operable Unit from discharging to the Columbia River, three ion-exchange pump and treat systems were installed between 1997 and 2009. Between 2010 and 2016, operation of the K West pump and treat system, located near the former 105K West plutonium production reactor, reduced concentrations below the groundwater remediation target for hexavalent chromium. In 2016, a rebound study was performed to evaluate the effectiveness of the pump and treat remedy and assess the potential for any residual hexavalent chromium sources continuing to contribute to groundwater contamination. As a result of the rebound study, a source of continued groundwater contamination was identified. To address this condition, a soil flushing treatability test was written and approved by the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The test included saturating about a 1-acre area of soil with treated water with the goal of forcing the residual hexavalent chromium to groundwater where existing extraction wells could remove it for treatment, accelerating the cleanup process. In spring and summer 2019, CH2M Hill Plateau Remediation Company installed and began operating a shallow underground leach system to support the treatability test. Preliminary sampling data show the test was effective in removing the residual contamination. Following further evaluation and analysis from the initial test, the process will be considered for implementation elsewhere on the Hanford Site, particularly at locations where there is a known or suspected continuing contamination source in the soil column. The paper will cover the goals of the study, as well as more details about the following: - Overview of pump and treat exit strategy (using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guidance); - The design and installation of the soil flushing technology in the 100-K Area; - The testing process and results of sampling data; - Post-study evaluation and potential for implementation in other locations at the Hanford Site. Innovative solutions for cleanup, such as the soil flushing technology, have resulted in substantial progress in the removal of groundwater contaminants at the Hanford Site, potentially shortening the time frame required to meet cleanup goals and resulting in significant cost savings. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗