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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Shuttle Program Loads Integration: Going From Concept to Operations and Staying Successful

From the beginning of the Shuttle Program to its end, integrated loads and dynamics analyses and tests have been critical in shaping the vehicle design and operational decisions for NASA and its customers. Starting with scaled models and simple mathematical simulations of the structural dynamics, engineers defined the required structural stiffness and predicted the limit loads for each element of the system. Early structural tests provided reasonable confidence that the models and predictions were good. The first launch of the Space Shuttle brought surprises, though, when the ignition overpressure event caused a forward fuel tank support strut to buckle, among several unexpected effects. The launch pad and other ground equipment became an integral part of the system integration, especially where the acoustic and pressure environments of ignition and lift-off were concerned. Following the Challenger accident, operating limits were changed in response to new understandings of how the integrated system performed. Controlling loads while maximizing performance was a key tenet of the Performance Enhancement design process, which enabled construction of the International Space Station. During the return to flight after the Columbia accident, engineers grew to understand that loads during the roll maneuver were also important to the vehicle s structural margin and life. At this point the crawler transport from the Vehicle Assembly Building to the launch pad also became a part of the integrated loads analysis. Even in the last years of the Space Shuttle Program, new data still provided interesting insights into this complicated and fascinating spaceship. This paper will present some examples of the important findings by the team of specialists that supported the Integrated Loads and Dynamics Panel for the Space Shuttle Program.

Bernstein, Karen↗
NASA NTRS2014

Nanoscale Compositional Relations in Lunar Rock Patina: Deciphering Sources for Patina Components on an Apollo 17 Station 6 Boulder

Space weathering on the Moon and other airless bodies modifies the surfaces of regolith grains as well as the space-exposed surfaces of larger rocks and boulders. As space weathering witness plates, rocks and boulders are distinguished from regolith grains based on their ability to persist as physically intact substrates over longer time scales before being disaggregated by impact processes. Because lunar surfaces, including exposed rocks, quickly develop an optically thick layer of patina, it is important to understand the compositional relationship between patinas and their underlying rock substrates, particularly to support remote-sensing of rocky lunar terrains. Based on analytical TEM techniques, supported by focused ion beam (FIB) cross-sectioning, we have begun to systematize the multi-layer microstructural complexity of patinas on rock samples with a range of space exposure histories. Our on-going work has particularly focused on lunar rock 76015, both because it has a long (approx. 22 my) exposure history, and because its surface was exposed to patina development approximately 1 m off the regolith surface on a boulder in the Apollo 17 Station 6 boulder field. Potential sources for the 76015 patina therefore include impact-melted and vaporized material derived from the local rock substrate, as well as from the mix of large boulders and regolith in the Station 6 area. While similar, there are differences in the mineralogy and chemistry of the rocks and regolith at Station 6. We were interested to see if these, or other sources, could be distinguished in the average composition, as well as the compositional nanostratigraphy of the 76015 patina. To date we have acquired a total of 9 TEM FIB cross-sections from the 76015 patina, giving us reasonable confidence of being able to arrive at an integrated average for the patina major element composition based on analytical TEM methods.

Christoffersen, R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Characterizing DSN System Frequency Stability with Spacecraft Tracking Data

This paper describes a recent effort in characterizing frequency stability performance of the ground system in the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN). Unlike the traditional approach where performance is obtained from special calibration sessions that are both time consuming and require manual setup, the new method taps into the daily spacecraft tracking data. This method significantly increases the amount of data available for analysis, roughly by two orders of magnitude; making it possible to conduct trend analysis with reasonable confidence. Since the system is monitored daily, any significant variation in performance can be detected timely. This helps the DSN maintain its performance commitment to customers.

performance analysis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification of Expected Time-of-Arrival in UAV Flight Trajectory

One of the foremost requirements for accurate in-flight safety monitoring of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is tracking of their flight trajectory. Existing UAVs leverage autonomous flight functionalities based on trajectory generation algorithms developed in robotic applications such as polynomial or spline curves in order to facilitate kinematic smoothness, minimum vibrations and fuel efficiency. However in practice, the actual path may be subjected to unexpected local weather conditions, unexpected obstacles along the path or abrupt traffic changes in the low-altitude airspace resulting in large errors of the predicted time-of-arrival at way-points. In this study, an approach to quantify and propagate uncertainty in 4D trajectories is proposed. The paper presents a simple error interval propagation method based on the expected cruise speed of the UAV and its associated uncertainty. The uncertainty is then propagated in time to estimate reasonable confidence intervals on the times-of-arrival of the vehicle at each way-point as well as along the entire flight-path. The uncertainty propagation is demonstrated on a state-of-the-art trajectory generation algorithm based on non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) curves. Further, the effect of a stationary wind field is incorporated in the uncertainty propagation approach. The proposed method is implemented on synthetic and real data obtained from flight experiments with a small UAV.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
NASA NTRS2020

Validation on the Europa Clipper Mission in the Formulation Phase

The Europa Clipper mission will perform a detailed investigation of Europa’s environment and habitability by placing a spacecraft into a looping orbit around Jupiter and performing repeated close Europa flybys. The Europa Clipper Project Verification and Validation (V&V) team is responsible for verifying that the Project System is compliant with the science and engineering requirements levied on it and validating that it is capable of meeting the mission objectives. Europa Clipper has developed a V&V framework to ensure that mission capabilities are realized at a reasonable confidence level prior to launch. The V&V team will coordinate the validation activities defined by this framework throughout the project lifecycle as the spacecraft evolves from design to implementation and operations. Validation of space missions is typically grouped into three categories: 1) requirements validation, 2) model validation, and 3) system validation. System validation, along with verification activities, are often the primary focus of V&V programs and these efforts peak in the implementation phase. However, the increasing reliance of exploration missions on models and simulations, and the complexity of the Europa Clipper mission, have dictated attention to requirements and model validation in the formulation phase. This paper discusses the development of the Europa Clipper V&V framework with emphasis on the validation of models and simulations, and of requirements. Approaches include the adaptation of institutional guidelines, such as those in the NASA-STD-7009 document, to create a Project Model V&V Plan and the use of tools such as DOORS NG to plan model validation and derive requirement quality metrics.

Srivastava, Priyanka↗
DOE OSTI2024

Initial PIP-II Beam Current Monitor Fault Case Analyses & Beam Position Monitor Linearity Studies in CST Studio Suite

The use of non-invasive sensors & systems to measure particle beam characteristics is a crucial part of modern accelerator control systems due to their ability to return real time beam data while minimizing negative effects on beam quality. To ensure that one can be reasonably confident these sensors will behave as desired upon be-ing implemented within the beamline, simulations pre-dicting the performance of these sensors under beamline conditions can be used as a valuable tool for checking sensor functionality without a physical test bench. This paper details the design, testing, and results of two sensor models developed using CST Studio Suite soft-ware designed to mimic two sensors to be implemented within the PIP-III beamline: an elliptical, large-aperture beam position monitor (BPM) for which vertical & hori-zontal position signal linearity was analyzed, and an AC current transformer (ACCT) beam current monitor (BCM) used to search for potential fault cases within the BCM and beam pipe flange gaps. Special focus is given to the discovery of linearity variations within the BPM and the use of frequency domain techniques in the BCM fault case analyses.

Rouzky, A. R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

Denney, Ewen↗
DOE OSTI2024

Durability testing of actual Hanford waste glasses and their non-radioactive simulant glasses

The low-activity waste (LAW) fraction of Hanford tank waste will be converted to glass at the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) and disposed on the Hanford site. The chemical durability of LAW glasses has been researched for decades to satisfy contract requirements. Most LAW glass durability data has been generated on non-radioactive simulant glasses fabricated via crucible melts. These non-radioactive glasses were chosen due to safety and cost reasons with confidence that radioactive waste glasses would exhibit similar behavior. To reduce the risk of significant differences in laboratory test response data between WTP melter waste glass and simulant glass, Product Consistency Tests (PCT, i.e., ASTM C1285-21) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 1313 durability tests were performed on actual and simulant LAW glasses fabricated using laboratory-scaled melters. Actual and simulant glass durability test results are presented and statistically compared. Finally, differences in test responses were found to be within experimental uncertainty.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1972

The risk of solar proton events to space missions

The total dose in rads-tissue from solar protons was tabulated for weekly time intervals, and the number of weeks which gave a dose above 25 rads behind 10 g/sq cm of aluminum for the active 6 years of the 19th cycle were called dangerous or large event weeks. The number of such event weeks was found to be only 3 weeks for the past 20 years. Even though the chance for smaller events is examined, it was found that for any reasonable, high confidence level (95%), the smaller events could be ignored. Consequently, the total particle flux for the 19th cycle was divided by a factor of 3 and determined a single large event week. Using this spectrum, the tissue dose in rads is calculated at the center of an aluminum spherical shell.

Burrell, M. O.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Frequency and site selection criteria for MST radars, part 5.1A

The majority of mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere (MST) and ST radars are located in or near mountainous terrain. When measuring horizontal velocities, the terrain is a small factor, but when measuring vertical velocities, the meteorological noise induced by rough terrain can severely limit the usefulness of the observations. When the variance of the vertical velocity is too large, it is not possible to suitably filter the data to detect the small synoptic-scale signal with reasonable statistical confidence. The variance of vertical velocity at all tropospheric levels is directly related to the low level wind speed during flow over rough terrain. It is suggested that the synoptic-scale vertical velocity can be measured by ST radars where the terrain is smooth. The large-scale vertical velocity cannot always be reliably determined from MST radar data when the underlying terrain is rough. The vertical velocity is potentially on of future radar site selections, taking into account the desired meteorological applications of the data and engineering design factors. If the synoptic-scale vertical velocity is a desired variable, the radar should not be located near mountains.

Nastrom, G. D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Challenges of Sustaining the International Space Station Through 2020 and Beyond: Reassessing Confidence Targets for System Availability

The International Space Station (ISS) was originally designed to operate until 2015 with a plan for deorbiting the ISS in 2016. Currently, the international partnership has agreed to extend the operations until 2020 and discussions are underway to extend the life even further to 2028. Each partner is responsible for the sustaining engineering, sparing, and maintenance of their own segments. National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) challenge is to purchase the needed number of spares to maintain the functional availability of the ISS systems necessary for the United States On-Orbit Segment s contribution. This presentation introduces an analytical approach to assessing uncertainty in ISS hardware necessary to extend the life of the vehicle. Some key areas for consideration are: establishing what confidence targets are required to ensure science can be continuously carried out on the ISS, defining what confidence targets are reasonable to ensure vehicle survivability, considering what is required to determine if the confidence targets are too high, and whether sufficient number of spares are purchased. The results of the analysis will provide a methodological basis for reassessing vehicle subsystem confidence targets. This analysis compares the probability of existing spares exceeding the total expected unit demand of the Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) in functional hierarchies approximating the vehicle subsystems. In cases where the functional hierarchies' availability does not meet subsystem confidence targets, the analysis will further identify which ORUs may require additional spares to extend the life of the ISS. The resulting probability is dependent upon hardware reliability estimates. However, the ISS hardware fleet carries considerable epistemic uncertainty which must be factored into the development and execution of sparing risk postures. In addition, it is also recognized that uncertainty in the assessment is due to disconnects between modeled functions and actual subsystem operations. Perhaps most importantly, it is acknowledged that conservative confidence targets per subsystem are currently accepted. This presentation will also discuss how subsystem confidence targets may be relaxed based on calculating the level of uncertainty for each corresponding ORU-function. The presentation will conclude with the various strengths and limitations for implementing the analytical approach in sustaining the ISS through end of life; 2020 and beyond.

Lutomski, Michael G.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Method for Generating Expert Derived Confidence Scores

We executed a pilot demonstration of a methodology for developing a new confidence metric to help operators calibrate their trust in ML event classifiers. This confidence metric was derived from domain expert judgment and was accompanied with a qualitative description describing the reason for each confidence rating. After learning the boundaries of an ML’s performance by studying a subset of events an SME rated his confidence in the ML’s ability to classify similar events and provided an explanation for his ratings. To demonstrate this methodology, we developed our expert driven confidence scores for the ML event classifier within the ESAMS. Next, we assessed the accuracy of the human expert confidence scores relative to the ML’s uncertainty quantification scores. This report includes a description of our methodology, summary of our findings and future directions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1993

The coming technological singularity: How to survive in the post-human era

The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur): (1) the development of computers that are 'awake' and superhumanly intelligent (to date, most controversy in the area of AI relates to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is 'yes, we can', then there is little doubt that beings more intelligent can be constructed shortly thereafter); (2) large computer networks (and their associated users) may 'wake up' as a superhumanly intelligent entity; (3) computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent; and (4) biological science may find ways to improve upon the natural human intellect. The first three possibilities depend in large part on improvements in computer hardware. Progress in computer hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based largely on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years.

Vinge, Vernor↗
NASA NTRS1978

Wind profiles for Space Shuttle loads analysis

The small scale wind velocity perturbations in vertical wind profiles at Cape Kennedy, Florida were analyzed in order to derive information for simulations of space shuttle ascent through the perturbed atmosphere. The available statistical data does not permit specification of various aspects of idealized singularities and wavelike perturbations with a reasonable degree of confidence. The information developed as a result of the analysis described in Section 3 of this report is suitable for the further development of idealized models. The term perturbation is used instead of the more common term, gust. According to the conventional approach, a gust profile is calculated by applying a high pass digital filter to a Jimsphere profile; all the speeds in the filtered profile are defined as gusts. The high pass filtered profile is defined as a residual profile and the maximum residual in the vicinity of a specified reference height is defined as the gust. Gusts defined in this manner represent the perturbation peaks. A detailed discussion of the calculation of residual profiles and gusts is given. The meteorological coordinate system, the data sample, and Jimsphere profiles are also described. Recommendations and conclusions are presented.

Adelfang, S. I.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Comparison of Model Calculation and Measurement of Absorbed Dose for Proton Irradiation

With the increase in the amount of time spent EVA that is necessary to complete the construction and subsequent maintenance of ISS, it will become increasingly important for ground support personnel to accurately characterize the radiation exposures incurred by EVA crewmembers. Since exposure measurements cannot be taken within the organs of interest, it is necessary to estimate these exposures by calculation. To validate the methods and tools used to develop these estimates, it is necessary to model experiments performed in a controlled environment. This work is such an effort. A human phantom was outfitted with detector equipment and then placed in American EMU and Orlan-M EVA space suits. The suited phantom was irradiated at the LLUPTF with proton beams of known energies. Absorbed dose measurements were made by the spaceflight operational dosimetrist from JSC at multiple sites in the skin, eye, brain, stomach, and small intestine locations in the phantom. These exposures are then modeled using the BRYNTRN radiation transport code developed at the NASA Langley Research Center, and the CAM (computerized anatomical male) human geometry model of Billings and Yucker. Comparisons of absorbed dose calculations with measurements show excellent agreement. This suggests that there is reason to be confident in the ability of both the transport code and the human body model to estimate proton exposure in ground-based laboratory experiments.

Zapp, N.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Lessons Learned from Numerical Simulations of the F-16XL Aircraft at Flight Conditions

Nine groups participating in the Cranked Arrow Wing Aerodynamics Project International (CAWAPI) project have contributed steady and unsteady viscous simulations of a full-scale, semi-span model of the F-16XL aircraft. Three different categories of flight Reynolds/Mach number combinations were computed and compared with flight-test measurements for the purpose of code validation and improved understanding of the flight physics. Steady-state simulations are done with several turbulence models of different complexity with no topology information required and which overcome Boussinesq-assumption problems in vortical flows. Detached-eddy simulation (DES) and its successor delayed detached-eddy simulation (DDES) have been used to compute the time accurate flow development. Common structured and unstructured grids as well as individually-adapted unstructured grids were used. Although discrepancies are observed in the comparisons, overall reasonable agreement is demonstrated for surface pressure distribution, local skin friction and boundary velocity profiles at subsonic speeds. The physical modeling, steady or unsteady, and the grid resolution both contribute to the discrepancies observed in the comparisons with flight data, but at this time it cannot be determined how much each part contributes to the whole. Overall it can be said that the technology readiness of CFD-simulation technology for the study of vehicle performance has matured since 2001 such that it can be used today with a reasonable level of confidence for complex configurations.

Rizzi, Arthur↗
NASA NTRS2009

What was Learned from Numerical Simulations of F-16XL (CAWAPI) at Flight Conditions

Nine groups participating in the CAWAPI project have contributed steady and unsteady viscous simulations of a full-scale, semi-span model of the F-16XL aircraft. Three different categories of flight Reynolds/Mach number combinations were computed and compared with flight-test measurements for the purpose of code validation and improved understanding of the flight physics. Steady-state simulations are done with several turbulence models of different complexity with no topology information required and which overcome Boussinesq-assumption problems in vortical flows. Detached-eddy simulation (DES) and its successor delayed detached-eddy simulation (DDES) have been used to compute the time accurate flow development. Common structured and unstructured grids as well as individually-adapted unstructured grids were used. Although discrepancies are observed in the comparisons, overall reasonable agreement is demonstrated for surface pressure distribution, local skin friction and boundary velocity profiles at subsonic speeds. The physical modeling, be it steady or unsteady flow, and the grid resolution both contribute to the discrepancies observed in the comparisons with flight data, but at this time it cannot be determined how much each part contributes to the whole. Overall it can be said that the technology readiness of CFD-simulation technology for the study of vehicle performance has matured since 2001 such that it can be used today with a reasonable level of confidence for complex configurations.

Rizzi, Arthur↗
NASA NTRS2014

Data Mining of Historical Human Data to Assess the Risk of Injury due to Dynamic Loads

The NASA Occupant Protection Group is charged with ensuring crewmembers are protected during all dynamic phases of spaceflight. Previous work with outside experts has led to the development of a definition of acceptable risk (DAR) for space capsule vehicles. The DAR defines allowable probability rates for various categories of injuries. An important question is how to validate these probabilities for a given vehicle. One approach is to impact test human volunteers under projected nominal landing loads. The main drawback is the large number of subject tests required to attain a reasonable level of confidence that the injury probability rates would meet those outlined in the DAR. An alternative is to mine existing databases containing human responses to impact. Testing an anthropomorphic test device (ATD) at the same human‐exposure levels could yield a range of ATD responses that would meet DAR. As one aspect of future vehicle validation, the ATD could be tested in the vehicle's seat and suit configuration at nominal landing loads and compared with the ATD responses supported by the human data set. This approach could reduce the number of human‐volunteer tests NASA would need to conduct to validate that a vehicle meets occupant protection standards. METHODS: The U.S. Air Force has recorded hundreds of human responses to frontal, lateral, and spinal impacts at many acceleration levels and pulse durations. All of this data are stored on the Collaborative Biomechanics Data Network (CBDN), which is maintained by the Wright Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB). The test device for human occupant restraint (THOR) ATD was impact tested on WPAFB's horizontal impulse accelerator (HIA) matching human‐volunteer exposures on the HIA to 5 frontal and 3 spinal loading conditions. No human injuries occurred as a result of these impact conditions. Peak THOR response variables for neck axial tension and compression, and thoracic‐spine axial compression were collected. Maximal chest deflection was determined from motion capture video of the impact test. HIC‐ 15 and BRIC were calculated from head acceleration responses. Given the number of human subjects for each test condition a confidence interval of injury probability will be obtained. RESULTS: Results will be discussed in terms of injury‐risk probability estimates based on the human data set evaluated. Also, gaps in the data set will be identified. These gaps could be one of two types. One is areas where additional THOR testing would increase the comparable human data set, thereby improving confidence in the injury probability rate. The other is where additional human testing would assist in obtaining information on other acceleration levels or directions. DISCUSSION: The historical human data showed validity of the THOR ATD for supplemental testing. The historical human data are limited in scope, however. Further data are needed to characterize the effects of sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight on risk of injury

Wells, Jesica↗