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NASA NTRS1990

Laser ranging error budget for the Topex/Poseidon satellite

A laser ranging error budget is detailed, and a specific error budget is derived for the Topex/Poseidon satellite. A ranging uncertainty of 0.76 cm is predicted for Topex/Poseidon at 20 deg elevation using the presently designed laser retroreflector array and only modest improvements in present system operations. Atmospheric refraction and satellite attitude effects cause the predicted range error to vary with satellite elevation angle from 0.71 cm at zenith to 0.76 cm at 20 deg elevation. This a priori error budget compares well with the about 1.2-cm rms a posteriori polynomial orbital fit using existing data taken for an extant satellite of similar size and orbit.

Schwartz, Jon A.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Preliminary power train design for a state-of-the-art electric vehicle

The state-of-the-art (SOTA) of electric vehicles built since 1965 was reviewed to establish a base for the preliminary design of a power train for a SOTA electric vehicle. The performance of existing electric vehicles were evaluated to establish preliminary specifications for a power train design using state-of-the-art technology and commercially available components. Power train components were evaluated and selected using a computer simulation of the SAE J227a Schedule D driving cycle. Predicted range was determined for a number of motor and controller combinations in conjunction with the mechanical elements of power trains and a battery pack of sixteen lead-acid batteries - 471.7 kg at 0.093 MJ/Kg (1040 lbs. at 11.7 Whr/lb). On the basis of maximum range and overall system efficiency using the Schedule D cycle, an induction motor and 3 phase inverter/controller was selected as the optimum combination when used with a two-speed transaxle and steel belted radial tires. The predicted Schedule D range is 90.4 km (56.2 mi). Four near term improvements to the SOTA were identified, evaluated, and predicted to increase range approximately 7%.

Ross, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Spectrometric Estimation of Total Nitrogen Concentration in Douglas-Fir Foliage

Spectral measurements of fresh and dehydrated Douglas-fir foliage, from trees cultivated under three fertilization treatments, were acquired with a laboratory spectrophotometer. The slope (first-derivative) of the fresh- and dry-leaf absorbance spectra at locations near known protein absorption features was strongly correlated with total nitrogen (TN) concentration of the foliage samples. Particularly strong correlation was observed between the first-derivative spectra in the 2150-2170 nm region and TN, reaching a local maximum in the fresh-leaf spectra of -0.84 at 2 160 nm. Stepwise regression was used to generate calibration equations relating first derivative spectra from fresh, dry/intact, and dry/ground samples to TN concentration. Standard errors of calibration were 1.52 mg g-1 (fresh), 1.33 (dry/intact), and 1.20 (dry/ground), with goodness-of-fit 0.94 and greater. Cross-validation was performed with the fresh-leaf dataset to examine the predictive capability of the regression method; standard errors of prediction ranged from 1.47 - 2.37 mg g(exp -1) across seven different validation sets, prediction goodness of fit ranged from .85-.94, and wavelength selection was fairly insensitive to the membership of the calibration set. All regressions in this study tended to select wavelengths in the 2100-2350 nm region, with the primary selection in the 2142-2172 nm region. The study provides positive evidence concerning the feasibility of assessing TN status of fresh-leaf samples by spectrometric means. We assert that the ability to extract biochemical information from fresh-leaf spectra is a necessary but insufficient condition regarding the use of remote sensing for canopy-level biochemical estimation.

Johnson, Lee F.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Observational Needs for Improving Ocean and Coupled Reanalysis, S2S Prediction, and Decadal Prediction

Developments in ocean data assimilation (DA) and observing system technologies are intertwined. New observation types lead to new DA methods, and new DA methods such as Coupled Data Assimilation can change the value of existing observations or indicate where new observations can have greater utility for monitoring and prediction. Practitioners are encouraged to make better use of observations that are already available, for example in strongly coupled data assimilation where ocean observations can be used to improve atmospheric analyses and vice versa. Ocean reanalyses are useful for the analysis of climate,as well as initializing operational long-range prediction models. There are remaining challenges for ocean reanalyses due to biases and abrupt changes in the ocean observing system throughout its history, the presence of biases and drifts in models, and simplifying assumptions made in the DA methods. From a governance point of view, more support is needed to interface the observing community and the ocean DA community. For prediction applications, the ocean DA community must work with the ocean observing community to establish protocols for rapid communication of ocean observing data on NWP timescales. There is potential for new observations to enhance the observing system by supporting prediction on multiple timescales, ranging from the typical timescale of numerical weather prediction covering hours to weeks, out to multiple decades. It is highly encouraged that communication be fostered between thesecommunities to allow operational prediction centers the ability to provide guidance to the design of a sustained and adaptive observing network.

Ocean reanalysis↗

NASA NTRS2003

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Richon, K.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Theory of ultrasonic diffraction by damage developed in thin laminated composites

The apparent attenuation which would result if certain damage states (transverse cracks and delaminations) are introduced into a graphite/epoxy laminate through which an ultrasonic wave passes is investigated. Experimental data for two different laminates are presented which shows changes in the apparent attenuation of about one db. These changes generally occur at loads which correspond to the range predicted for the formation of the damage. The predicted changes in the attenuation for several simple and common damage states are well within the range of experimental values.

Hayford, D. T.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Predictability of quasi-geostrophic planetary waves in global and hemispheric domains

Factors which affect the long term predictability, and also the feasibility of defining an ultimate level of weather predictability, are discussed. It is noted that current models yield a one week forecast at the best. Long range predictability, however, is a restriction on the knowledge of evolutive processes of the atmosphere, and does not characterize the prediction of specific atmospheric quantities. The influences of local phenomena such as cyclones and other nonlinear processes can cause planetary waves which affect the predictability of weather everywhere. It is suggested that any successful prediction model will necessarily account for the evolution of ultralong waves. Although significant differences in predictions have been found between hemispheric and global predictions, the location of the errors in extrapolating the hemispheric to the global scale have been identified.

Roads, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Crossflow-vortex instability and transition on a 45 deg swept wing

A crossflow vortex experiment on a 45 deg swept wing is currently being conducted in the Arizona State University Unsteady Wind Tunnel. The experimental apparatus is designed to produce crossflow-dominated transition by simulating infinite swept wing flow using contoured end liners in a closed throat wind tunnel. Stationary fixed-wavelength crossflow vortices are observed at several chord Reynolds numbers. The vortex wavelength which is fixed for a given Reynolds number varies with Reynolds number approximately as predicted by linear stability theory, but with the predicted wavelengths about 30 percent larger than the observed wavelengths. Travelling waves are observed both in the frequency range predicted by linear stability theory and at higher frequencies. These higher frequency waves may be harmonics of the primary crossflow waves generated by a nonlinear parametric resonance phenomena.

Dagenhart, J. Ray↗

NASA NTRS1997

Possible Evidence for Relativistic Shocks in Gamma-Ray Bursts

Relativistic shock models of gamma-ray bursts may be tested by comparing their predicted low-energy asymptotic spectral indices s to observations. Synchrotron radiation theory predicts that the instantaneous spectrum has s = 1/3, and the spectrum integrated over the radiative decay of the electrons' energies has s = 1/2 with other cases lying between these limits. We examine the spectra of 11 bursts obtained by the Large Area Detectors on BATSE. One agrees with the predicted instantaneous spectrum, as does the initial portion of a second, and three are close to the predicted integrated spectrum. All of the observed asymptotic spectral slopes lie in the predicted range. This evidence for relativistic shocks is independent of detailed models of bursts and of assumptions about their distances. Radiation observed with the predicted instantaneous spectrum has a comparatively smooth time dependence, consistent with the necessarily long radiation time, while radiation observed with the predicted integrated spectrum has a spiky time dependence, consistent with the necessarily short radiation time.

Cohen, E.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Reliability Analysis in the Presence of Aleatory Uncertainty

This paper proposes a method for modeling a system’s response using data. In contrast to approaches that identify a limit state function, we focus on the case in which not all uncertain parameters affecting the response are observable and the measured response is corrupted by noise. To this end, the system response is not characterized by a limit state function but instead by a Random Predictor Model (RPM) having a nonparametric structure. Consequently, the resulting failure probability is not a scalar but a random variable. This variable accounts for the aleatory contributions of the model-form uncertainty and the measurement noise into the response. Furthermore, we propose a framework that enables trading off the predicted range of failure probabilities resulting from such an analysis with a measure of risk. In this context, risk is the percentage of all predicted outcomes the analyst is willing to ignore. The reliability analysis of an aeroelastic structure subject to flutter is used to illustrate the ideas proposed.

Crespo, L. G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

On identified predictive control

Self-tuning control algorithms are potential successors to manually tuned PID controllers traditionally used in process control applications. A very attractive design method for self-tuning controllers, which has been developed over recent years, is the long-range predictive control (LRPC). The success of LRPC is due to its effectiveness with plants of unknown order and dead-time which may be simultaneously nonminimum phase and unstable or have multiple lightly damped poles (as in the case of flexible structures or flexible robot arms). LRPC is a receding horizon strategy and can be, in general terms, summarized as follows. Using assumed long-range (or multi-step) cost function the optimal control law is found in terms of unknown parameters of the predictor model of the process, current input-output sequence, and future reference signal sequence. The common approach is to assume that the input-output process model is known or separately identified and then to find the parameters of the predictor model. Once these are known, the optimal control law determines control signal at the current time t which is applied at the process input and the whole procedure is repeated at the next time instant. Most of the recent research in this field is apparently centered around the LRPC formulation developed by Clarke et al., known as generalized predictive control (GPC). GPC uses ARIMAX/CARIMA model of the process in its input-output formulation. In this paper, the GPC formulation is used but the process predictor model is derived from the state space formulation of the ARIMAX model and is directly identified over the receding horizon, i.e., using current input-output sequence. The underlying technique in the design of identified predictive control (IPC) algorithm is the identification algorithm of observer/Kalman filter Markov parameters developed by Juang et al. at NASA Langley Research Center and successfully applied to identification of flexible structures.

Bialasiewicz, Jan T.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Jet Noise Modeling for Suppressed and Unsuppressed Aircraft in Simulated Flight

This document describes the development of further extensions and improvements to the jet noise model developed by Modern Technologies Corporation (MTC) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The noise component extraction and correlation approach, first used successfully by MTC in developing a noise prediction model for two-dimensional mixer ejector (2DME) nozzles under the High Speed Research (HSR) Program, has been applied to dual-stream nozzles, then extended and improved in earlier tasks under this contract. Under Task 6, the coannular jet noise model was formulated and calibrated with limited scale model data, mainly at high bypass ratio, including a limited-range prediction of the effects of mixing-enhancement nozzle-exit chevrons on jet noise. Under Task 9 this model was extended to a wider range of conditions, particularly those appropriate for a Supersonic Business Jet, with an improvement in simulated flight effects modeling and generalization of the suppressor model. In the present task further comparisons are made over a still wider range of conditions from more test facilities. The model is also further generalized to cover single-stream nozzles of otherwise similar configuration. So the evolution of this prediction/analysis/correlation approach has been in a sense backward, from the complex to the simple; but from this approach a very robust capability is emerging. Also from these studies, some observations emerge relative to theoretical considerations. The purpose of this task is to develop an analytical, semi-empirical jet noise prediction method applicable to takeoff, sideline and approach noise of subsonic and supersonic cruise aircraft over a wide size range. The product of this task is an even more consistent and robust model for the Footprint/Radius (FOOTPR) code than even the Task 9 model. The model is validated for a wider range of cases and statistically quantified for the various reference facilities. The possible role of facility effects will thus be documented. Although the comparisons that can be accomplished within the limited resources of this task are not comprehensive, they provide a broad enough sampling to enable NASA to make an informed decision on how much further effort should be expended on such comparisons. The improved finalized model is incorporated into the FOOTPR code. MTC has also supported the adaptation of this code for incorporation in NASA s Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP).

Stone, James R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Flight Deck Weather Avoidance Decision Support: Implementation and Evaluation

Weather related disruptions account for seventy percent of the delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). A key component in the weather plan of the Next Generation of Air Transportation System (NextGen) is to assimilate observed weather information and probabilistic forecasts into the decision process of flight crews and air traffic controllers. In this research we explore supporting flight crew weather decision making through the development of a flight deck predicted weather display system that utilizes weather predictions generated by ground-based radar. This system integrates and presents this weather information, together with in-flight trajectory modification tools, within a cockpit display of traffic information (CDTI) prototype. that the CDTI features 2D and perspective 3D visualization models of weather. The weather forecast products that we implemented were the Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) and the Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM), both developed by MIT Lincoln Lab. We evaluated the use of CIWS and CWAM for flight deck weather avoidance in two part-task experiments. Experiment 1 compared pilots' en route weather avoidance performance in four weather information conditions that differed in the type and amount of predicted forecast (CIWS current weather only, CIWS current and historical weather, CIWS current and forecast weather, CIWS current and forecast weather and CWAM predictions). Experiment 2 compared the use of perspective 3D and 21/2D presentations of weather for flight deck weather avoidance. Results showed that pilots could take advantage of longer range predicted weather forecasts in performing en route weather avoidance but more research will be needed to determine what combinations of information are optimal and how best to present them.

CWAM↗

NASA NTRS1994

Computational modelling of Er(3+): Garnet laser materials

The Er(3+) ion has attracted a lot of interest for four reasons: (1) Its (4)I(sub 13/2) yields (4)I(sub 15/2) transition lases in the eyesafe region near 1.5 micron; (2) the (4)I(sub 13/2) transition lases near 2.8 micron, an important wavelength for surgical purposes; (3) it displays surprisingly efficient upconversion with lasing observed at 1.7, 1.2, 0.85, 0.56, 0.55, and 0.47 micron following 1.5 micron pumping; and (4) it has absorption bands at 0.96 and 0.81 micron and thus can be diode pumped. However, properties desirable for upconversion reduce the efficiency of 1.5 and 3 micron laser operation and vice versa. Since all of the processes are influenced by the host via the crystal field induced stark splittings in the Er levels, this project undertook modelling of the host influence on the Er lasinng behavior. While growth and measurement of all ten Er(3+) doped garnets is the surest way of identifying hosts which maximize upconversion (or conversly, 1.5 and 3 micron performance), it is also expensive - costing approximately $10,000/material or approximately $100,000 for the materials computationally investigated here. The calculations were performed using a quantum mechanical point charge model developed by Clyde Morrison at Harry Diamond Laboratories. The programs were used to fit the Er:YAG experimental energy levels so that the crystal field parameters, B(sub nm) could be extracted. From these radial factors, rho (sub n) were determined for Er(3+) in garnets. These, in combination with crystal field components, Anm, available from X-ray data, were used to predict energy levels for Er in the other nine garnet hosts. The levels in Er:YAG were fit with an rms error of 12.2/cm over a 22,000/cm range. Predicted levels for two other garnets for which literature values were available had rms errors of less than 17/cm , showing the calculations to be reliable. Based on resonances between pairs of calculated stark levels, the model predicts GSGG as the best host for 1.5 micron laser operation, GSGG or YSAG as the best host for a 2.8 micron operation, and LuGG as the best host for an upconversion material.

Spangler, Lee H.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Effects of atmospheric variations on acoustic system performance

Acoustic propagation over medium to long ranges in the atmosphere is subject to many complex, interacting effects. Of particular interest at this point is modeling low frequency (less than 500 Hz) propagation for the purpose of predicting ranges and bearing accuracies at which acoustic sources can be detected. A simple means of estimating how much of the received signal power propagated directly from the source to the receiver and how much was received by turbulent scattering was developed. The correlations between the propagation mechanism and detection thresholds, beamformer bearing estimation accuracies, and beamformer processing gain of passive acoustic signal detection systems were explored.

Nation, Robert↗

NASA NTRS1979

Assessment and preliminary design of an energy buffer for regenerative braking in electric vehicles

Energy buffer systems, capable of storing the vehicle energy during braking and reusing this stored energy during acceleration, were examined. Some of these buffer systems when incorporated in an electric vehicle would result in an improvement in the performance and range under stop and go driving conditions. Buffer systems considered included flywheels, hydropneumatic, pneumatic, spring, and regenerative braking. Buffer ranking and rating criteria were established. Buffer systems were rated based on predicted range improvements, consumer acceptance, driveability, safety, reliability and durability, and initial and life cycle costs. A hydropneumatic buffer system was selected.

Buchholz, R.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Entry, Descent, and Landing Performance of the Mars Phoenix Lander

On May 25, 2008, the Mars Phoenix Lander successfully landed on the northern arctic plains of Mars. An overview of a preliminary reconstruction analysis performed on each entry, descent, and landing phase to assess the performance of Phoenix as it descended is presented and a comparison to pre-entry predictions is provided. The landing occurred 21 km further downrange than the predicted landing location. Analysis of the flight data revealed that the primary cause of Phoenix s downrange landing was a higher trim total angle of attack during the hypersonic phase of the entry, which resulted in Phoenix flying a slightly lifting trajectory. The cause of this higher trim attitude is not known at this time. Parachute deployment was 6.4 s later than prediction. This later deployment time was within the variations expected and is consistent with a lifting trajectory. The parachute deployment and inflation process occurred as expected with no anomalies identified. The subsequent parachute descent and powered terminal landing also behaved as expected. A preliminary reconstruction of the landing day atmospheric density profile was found to be lower than the best apriori prediction, ranging from a few percent less to a maximum of 8%. A comparison of the flight reconstructed trajectory parameters shows that the actual Phoenix entry, descent, and landing was close to pre-entry predictions. This reconstruction investigation is currently ongoing and the results to date are in the process of being refined.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Random Predictor Models for Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification: Part 2

This and a companion paper propose techniques for constructing parametric mathematical models describing key features of the distribution of an output variable given input-output data. By contrast to standard models, which yield a single output value at each value of the input, Random Predictors Models (RPMs) yield a random variable at each value of the input. Optimization-based strategies for calculating RPMs having a polynomial dependency on the input and a linear dependency on the parameters are proposed. These formulations yield RPMs having various levels of fidelity in which the mean, the variance, and the range of the model's parameter, thus of the output, are prescribed. As such they encompass all RPMs conforming to these prescriptions. The RPMs are optimal in the sense that they yield the tightest predictions for which all (or, depending on the formulation, most) of the observations are less than a fixed number of standard deviations from the mean prediction. When the data satisfies mild stochastic assumptions, and the optimization problem(s) used to calculate the RPM is convex (or, when its solution coincides with the solution to an auxiliary convex problem), the model's reliability, which is the probability that a future observation would be within the predicted ranges, is bounded rigorously.

Crespo, Luis G.↗