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Report and supplementary materials present method for estimating maximum distance which Spartan free flyer seen by star trackers on Space Shuttle. Brightness, and visible range calculated by using simplified model of object as reflector, taking into consideration orientation of object and predicted relative positions of Shuttle and Sun.
Reusable surface insulation materials, which were developed as heat shields for the space shuttle, were tested over a range of conditions including heat-transfer rates between 160 and 620 kW/sq m. The lowest of these heating rates was in a range predicted for the space shuttle during reentry, and the highest was more than twice the predicted entry heating on shuttle areas where reusable surface insulation would be used. Individual specimens were tested repeatedly at increasingly severe conditions to determine the maximum heating rate and temperature capability. A silica-base material experienced only minimal degradation during repeated tests which included conditions twice as severe as predicted shuttle entry and withstood cumulative exposures three times longer than the best mullite material. Mullite-base materials cracked and experienced incipient melting at conditions within the range predicted for shuttle entry. Neither silica nor mullite materials consistently survived the test series with unbroken waterproof surfaces. Surface temperatures for a silica and a mullite material followed a trend expected for noncatalytic surfaces, whereas surface temperatures for a second mullite material appeared to follow a trend expected for a catalytic surface.
ABSTRACT Temperature has a primary influence on phytoplankton physiology and ecology. We grew 12 strains of Gephyrocapsa huxleyi isolated from different‐temperature regions for ~45 generations (2 months) and characterised acclimated thermal response curves across a temperature range. Even with similar temperature optima and overlapping cell size, strain growth rates varied between 0.45 and 1 day −1 . Thermal niche widths varied from 16.7°C to 24.8°C, suggesting that strains use distinct thermal response mechanisms. We investigated the implications of this thermal intraspecific diversity using an ocean ecosystem simulation resolving phytoplankton thermal phenotypes. Model analogues of thermal ‘generalists’ and ‘specialists’ resulted in a distinctive global biogeography of thermal niche widths with a nonlinear latitudinal pattern. We leveraged model output to predict ranges of the 12 lab‐reared strains and demonstrated how this approach could broadly refine geographic range predictions. Our combination of observations and modelled biogeography highlights the capacity of diverse groups to survive temperature shifts.
Near-real-time validation of ranging system data is currently restricted to multiple range acquisitions during single passes (Pseudo-DRVID). A technique (Differential Range Validation) which utilizes predicted range and doppler pseudo-residuals to validate two-station, contiguous-pass range acquisitions down to the 10-meter level is described.
Until recently, all operational meteorological data has been made available to forecasters in a variety of different forms. Predictions based upon these different data formats have been complicated by the inability of forecasters to easily assimilate, in real-time, all data to provide an optimum decision regarding future weather occurrences. By March 1980, a joint NASA/NOAA effort had been initiated to develop the Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS). The primary objectives of this joint project are related to an improvement of the overall severe storm forecast and warning procedure and to a demonstration of the operational utility of techniques developed within the applied research community. CSIS is to utilize the Man Computer Interactive Data Access System (McIDAS). The present investigation is concerned with one of the first attempts to employ the CSIS system for the evaluation of a new research technique involving the prediction of thunderstorms over a forecast period of 12-48 hours.
Techniques for remote sensing of particles, from cloud droplet to hailstone size, using optical and microwave frequencies are reviewed. The inherent variability of atmospheric particulates is examined to delineate conditions when the signal can give information to be effectively utilized in a forecasting context. The physical limitations resulting from the phase, size, orientation and concentration variability of the particulates are assessed.
Range pseudo-residuals may be improved to the level required for data validation by a measurement updating process which utilizes Bierman's adaptation of the Kalman filter measurement updating algorithms together with process noise compensation to account for model errors. This algorithm involves combining the currently available range predictions and measurements to produce an updated range residual measurement whose accuracy is constrained by the range data quality and by the estimated error in the prediction. The algorithm is compact and fast, and is thus suitable for on-line applications in network control or at the station.
A laser ranging error budget is detailed, and a specific error budget is derived for the Topex/Poseidon satellite. A ranging uncertainty of 0.76 cm is predicted for Topex/Poseidon at 20 deg elevation using the presently designed laser retroreflector array and only modest improvements in present system operations. Atmospheric refraction and satellite attitude effects cause the predicted range error to vary with satellite elevation angle from 0.71 cm at zenith to 0.76 cm at 20 deg elevation. This a priori error budget compares well with the about 1.2-cm rms a posteriori polynomial orbital fit using existing data taken for an extant satellite of similar size and orbit.
The state-of-the-art (SOTA) of electric vehicles built since 1965 was reviewed to establish a base for the preliminary design of a power train for a SOTA electric vehicle. The performance of existing electric vehicles were evaluated to establish preliminary specifications for a power train design using state-of-the-art technology and commercially available components. Power train components were evaluated and selected using a computer simulation of the SAE J227a Schedule D driving cycle. Predicted range was determined for a number of motor and controller combinations in conjunction with the mechanical elements of power trains and a battery pack of sixteen lead-acid batteries - 471.7 kg at 0.093 MJ/Kg (1040 lbs. at 11.7 Whr/lb). On the basis of maximum range and overall system efficiency using the Schedule D cycle, an induction motor and 3 phase inverter/controller was selected as the optimum combination when used with a two-speed transaxle and steel belted radial tires. The predicted Schedule D range is 90.4 km (56.2 mi). Four near term improvements to the SOTA were identified, evaluated, and predicted to increase range approximately 7%.
Spectral measurements of fresh and dehydrated Douglas-fir foliage, from trees cultivated under three fertilization treatments, were acquired with a laboratory spectrophotometer. The slope (first-derivative) of the fresh- and dry-leaf absorbance spectra at locations near known protein absorption features was strongly correlated with total nitrogen (TN) concentration of the foliage samples. Particularly strong correlation was observed between the first-derivative spectra in the 2150-2170 nm region and TN, reaching a local maximum in the fresh-leaf spectra of -0.84 at 2 160 nm. Stepwise regression was used to generate calibration equations relating first derivative spectra from fresh, dry/intact, and dry/ground samples to TN concentration. Standard errors of calibration were 1.52 mg g-1 (fresh), 1.33 (dry/intact), and 1.20 (dry/ground), with goodness-of-fit 0.94 and greater. Cross-validation was performed with the fresh-leaf dataset to examine the predictive capability of the regression method; standard errors of prediction ranged from 1.47 - 2.37 mg g(exp -1) across seven different validation sets, prediction goodness of fit ranged from .85-.94, and wavelength selection was fairly insensitive to the membership of the calibration set. All regressions in this study tended to select wavelengths in the 2100-2350 nm region, with the primary selection in the 2142-2172 nm region. The study provides positive evidence concerning the feasibility of assessing TN status of fresh-leaf samples by spectrometric means. We assert that the ability to extract biochemical information from fresh-leaf spectra is a necessary but insufficient condition regarding the use of remote sensing for canopy-level biochemical estimation.
Here, we present a successful realization of sneutrino tribrid inflation model based on a gauged U(1)_B-L extension of Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). A single interaction term involving the B-L Higgs field and the right-handed neutrinos serves multiple purposes. These include the generation of heavy Majorana masses for the right-handed neutrinos to provide an explanation for the tiny neutrino masses via the seesaw mechanism, a realistic scenario for reheating and non-thermal leptogenesis with a reheat temperature as low as 10 6 GeV, and a successful realization of inflation with right-handed sneutrino as the inflaton. The matter parity which helps avoid rapid proton decay survives as a Z 2 subgroup of a U(1) R-symmetry. Depending on the choice of model parameters yields the following predicted range of the tensor to scalar ratio, 3 x 10 -11 ≲ r≲ 7x 10 -4 (6 x 10 -7 ≲ r ≲ 0.01), and the running of the scalar spectral index, -0.00022 ≲ dn_s/dln k ≲ -0.0026 (-0.00014 ≲ dn_s/dln k ≲ 0.005), along with the B-L breaking scale, 3 x 10 14 ≲ M/ GeV≲ 5 x 10 15 (6 x 10 15 ≲ M/ GeV≲ 2 x 10 16 ), calculated at the central value of the scalar spectral index, n_s =0.966, reported by Planck 2018. The possibility of realizing metastable cosmic strings in a grand unified theory setup is briefly discussed. The metastable cosmic string network admits string tension values in the range 10 -8 ≲ Gμ s ≲ 10 -6 , and predicts a stochastic gravitational wave background lying within the 2-σ bounds of the recent NANOGrav 12.5-yr data.
Developments in ocean data assimilation (DA) and observing system technologies are intertwined. New observation types lead to new DA methods, and new DA methods such as Coupled Data Assimilation can change the value of existing observations or indicate where new observations can have greater utility for monitoring and prediction. Practitioners are encouraged to make better use of observations that are already available, for example in strongly coupled data assimilation where ocean observations can be used to improve atmospheric analyses and vice versa. Ocean reanalyses are useful for the analysis of climate,as well as initializing operational long-range prediction models. There are remaining challenges for ocean reanalyses due to biases and abrupt changes in the ocean observing system throughout its history, the presence of biases and drifts in models, and simplifying assumptions made in the DA methods. From a governance point of view, more support is needed to interface the observing community and the ocean DA community. For prediction applications, the ocean DA community must work with the ocean observing community to establish protocols for rapid communication of ocean observing data on NWP timescales. There is potential for new observations to enhance the observing system by supporting prediction on multiple timescales, ranging from the typical timescale of numerical weather prediction covering hours to weeks, out to multiple decades. It is highly encouraged that communication be fostered between thesecommunities to allow operational prediction centers the ability to provide guidance to the design of a sustained and adaptive observing network.
We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.
The impact of Ar and He bulk gases on laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) real-time monitoring of trace Xe and Kr was assessed. LIBS is being developed as a monitoring tool for measuring noble gas transport in molten salt systems, in which traditional sensors may face challenges associated with radiation, corrosive materials, and/or mixed phases. The plasma temperature and electron densities of LIBS plasmas were measured in both static and various flowing Ar and He streams (0–5 L min −1 ). The use of an Ar bulk gas resulted in higher plasma temperature, greater electron densities by an order of magnitude, and extended plasma lifetime compared with when He bulk gas was used. Gas flow rate was found to have little impact on plasma temperature; however, its effect on electron density was significant, indicating the need to consider flow rate–specific models. Matrix effects on emission peaks were reported for both bulk gases. Due to these matrix effects, multivariate models were developed for Xe and Kr ranging from 0 to 700 ppm in both bulk gases. Although the predictive behavior was similar (root mean square error of prediction ranging from 11.1 to 20.6 ppm), the limits of detection were superior in He (Xe: 22.9 ppm, Kr: 30.4 ppm). Furthermore, these models were employed in demonstrative real-time tests (>1 h), which showed strong predictive precision (relative standard deviation <5 %) regardless of the bulk gas. Ultimately, this study provides a guide for the considerations required when developing gaseous LIBS models for real-time monitoring.
A two-dimensional material – Mg 2 B 4 C 2 , belonging to the family of the conventional superconductor MgB 2 , is theoretically predicted to exhibit superconductivity with critical temperature T c estimated in the 47–48 K range (predicted using the McMillian-Allen-Dynes formula) without any tuning of external parameters such as doping, strain, or substrate-induced effects. The origin of such a high intrinsic T c is ascribed to the presence of strong electron-phonon coupling and large density of states at the Fermi level. This system is obtained after replacing the chemically active boron-boron surface layers in a MgB 2 slab by chemically inactive boron-carbon layers. Hence, the surfaces of this material are inert. Our calculations confirm the stability of 2D Mg 2 B 4 C 2 . We also find that the key features of this material remain essentially unchanged when its thickness is increased by modestly increasing the number of inner MgB 2 layers.
The apparent attenuation which would result if certain damage states (transverse cracks and delaminations) are introduced into a graphite/epoxy laminate through which an ultrasonic wave passes is investigated. Experimental data for two different laminates are presented which shows changes in the apparent attenuation of about one db. These changes generally occur at loads which correspond to the range predicted for the formation of the damage. The predicted changes in the attenuation for several simple and common damage states are well within the range of experimental values.
Factors which affect the long term predictability, and also the feasibility of defining an ultimate level of weather predictability, are discussed. It is noted that current models yield a one week forecast at the best. Long range predictability, however, is a restriction on the knowledge of evolutive processes of the atmosphere, and does not characterize the prediction of specific atmospheric quantities. The influences of local phenomena such as cyclones and other nonlinear processes can cause planetary waves which affect the predictability of weather everywhere. It is suggested that any successful prediction model will necessarily account for the evolution of ultralong waves. Although significant differences in predictions have been found between hemispheric and global predictions, the location of the errors in extrapolating the hemispheric to the global scale have been identified.
A crossflow vortex experiment on a 45 deg swept wing is currently being conducted in the Arizona State University Unsteady Wind Tunnel. The experimental apparatus is designed to produce crossflow-dominated transition by simulating infinite swept wing flow using contoured end liners in a closed throat wind tunnel. Stationary fixed-wavelength crossflow vortices are observed at several chord Reynolds numbers. The vortex wavelength which is fixed for a given Reynolds number varies with Reynolds number approximately as predicted by linear stability theory, but with the predicted wavelengths about 30 percent larger than the observed wavelengths. Travelling waves are observed both in the frequency range predicted by linear stability theory and at higher frequencies. These higher frequency waves may be harmonics of the primary crossflow waves generated by a nonlinear parametric resonance phenomena.