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Quantum Computing Strategy 2026

Quantum computing (QC) is a rapidly maturing technology with the potential for revolutionary impacts on stockpile stewardship science and national security. Recent developments in fault-tolerant architectures have compressed vendor roadmaps, and predictions of a production-ready quantum computer by the mid-2030s are becoming increasingly credible. This strategy provides a roadmap for integrating QC into the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program by investing in four strategic focus areas: 1. Develop Capabilities in Mission-Relevant Quantum Applications: ASC will prioritize developing quantum-ready applications in mission areas that have shown significant promise for quantum advantage, including simulations of materials in extreme environments, nuclear dynamics, solving linear and nonlinear partial differential equations, and uncertainty quantification. These applications directly support stockpile stewardship science and modernization objectives. 2. Conduct R&D in Algorithms, Software, and Hardware: Sustained research into quantum algorithms, robust software tools, and quantum hardware is essential. ASC will develop efficient quantum algorithms; invest in quantum compilers, debuggers, and performance tools; and explore specialized quantum hardware tailored to NNSA’s unique requirements. 3. Engage with Vendors and Partners: Early and active collaboration with commercial quantum hardware vendors and academic partners is critical. Through testbeds, co-design agreements, and quantum demonstration facilities, ASC will influence hardware design, gain early access to emerging technologies, and ensure that quantum platforms evolve to meet mission needs. 4. Build Knowledge, Experience, and Workforce: Expanding and upskilling the quantum-trained workforce is essential to long-term success. This includes hiring, internal training, university outreach, and postdoctoral support to ensure ASC maintains the expertise required to operate, program, and integrate quantum systems as they become available. While quantum computing will never replace classical computing, it has the potential to solve certain problems with speed and accuracy that would be unachievable using any conceivable classical high-performance computing (HPC) system. By investing strategically in QC, ASC will help propel the emergent QC industry, maintain U.S. technological leadership, ensure mission readiness, and position itself to rapidly adopt quantum technologies as they mature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Computational Performance Bounds Prediction in Quantum Computing With Unstable Noise

Quantum computing has significantly advanced in recent years, boasting devices with hundreds of quantum bits (qubits), hinting at its potential quantum advantage over classical computing. Yet, noise in quantum devices poses significant barriers to realizing this supremacy. Understanding noise’s impact is crucial for reproducibility and application reuse; moreover, the next-generation quantum-centric supercomputing essentially requires efficient and accurate noise characterization to support system management (e.g., job scheduling), where ensuring correct functional performance (i.e., fidelity) of jobs on available quantum devices can even be higher-priority than traditional objectives. However, noise fluctuates over time, even on the same quantum device, which makes predicting the computational bounds for on-the-fly noise is vital. Noisy quantum simulation can offer insights but faces efficiency and scalability issues. Here, in this work, we propose a data-driven workflow, namely QuBound, to predict computational performance bounds. It decomposes historical performance traces to isolate noise sources and devises a novel encoder to embed circuit and noise information processed by a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. For evaluation, we compare QuBound with a state-of-the-art learning-based predictor, which only generates a single performance value instead of a bound. Experimental results show that the result of the existing approach falls outside of performance bounds, while all predictions from our QuBound with the assistance of performance decomposition better fit the bounds. Moreover, QuBound can efficiently produce practical bounds for various circuits with over 106 speedup over simulation; in addition, the range from QuBound is over 10× narrower than the state-of-the-art analytical approach.

Li, Jinyang [George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA (Unit

Enhancing quantum utility: Simulating large-scale quantum spin chains on superconducting quantum computers

We present the quantum simulation of the frustrated quantum spin- 1 2 antiferromagnetic Heisenberg spin chain with competing nearest-neighbor ( J 1 ) and next-nearest-neighbor ( J 2 ) exchange interactions in the real superconducting quantum computer with qubits ranging up to 100. In particular, we implement the Hamiltonian with the next-nearest neighbor exchange interaction in conjunction with the nearest-neighbor interaction on IBM's superconducting quantum computer and carry out the time evolution of the spin chain by employing the first-order Trotterization. Furthermore, our implementation of the second-order Trotterization for the isotropic Heisenberg spin chain, involving only nearest-neighbor exchange interaction, enables precise measurement of the expectation values of staggered magnetization observable across a range of up to 100 qubits. Notably, in both cases, our approach results in a constant circuit depth in each Trotter step, independent of the number of qubits. Our demonstration of the accurate measurement of expectation values for the large-scale quantum system using superconducting quantum computers designates the quantum utility of these devices for investigating various properties of many-body quantum systems. This will be a stepping stone to achieving the quantum advantage over classical ones in simulating quantum systems before the fault tolerance quantum era. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

S-QGPU: Shared quantum gate processing unit for distributed quantum computing

We propose a distributed quantum computing (DQC) architecture in which individual small-sized quantum computers are connected to a shared quantum gate processing unit (S-QGPU). The S-QGPU comprises a collection of hybrid two-qubit gate modules for remote gate operations. In contrast to conventional DQC systems, where each quantum computer is equipped with dedicated communication qubits, S-QGPU effectively pools the resources (e.g., the communication qubits) together for remote gate operations, and, thus, significantly reduces the cost of not only the local quantum computers but also the overall distributed system. Our preliminary analysis and simulation show that S-QGPU's shared resources for remote gate operations enable efficient resource utilization. When not all computing qubits (also called data qubits) in the system require simultaneous remote gate operations, S-QGPU-based DQC architecture demands fewer communication qubits, further decreasing the overall cost. Alternatively, with the same number of communication qubits, it can support a larger number of simultaneous remote gate operations more efficiently, especially when these operations occur in a burst mode.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC

Quantum tensor network algorithms for evaluation of spectral functions on quantum computers

We investigate quantum algorithms derived from tensor networks to simulate the static and dynamic properties of quantum many-body systems. Using a sequentially prepared quantum circuit representation of a matrix product state (MPS) that we call a quantum tensor network (QTN), we demonstrate algorithms to prepare ground and excited states on a quantum computer and apply them to molecular nanomagnets (MNMs) as a paradigmatic example. In this setting, we develop two approaches for extracting the spectral correlation functions measured in neutron-scattering experiments: (a) a generalization of the SWAP test for computing wave function overlaps and, (b) a generalization of the notion of matrix product operators to the QTN setting which generates a linear combination of unitaries. The latter method is discussed in detail for translationally invariant spin-half systems, where it is shown to reduce the qubit resource requirements compared with the SWAP method and may be generalized to other systems. We demonstrate the versatility of our approaches by simulating spin-1/2 and spin-3/2 MNMs, with the latter being an experimentally relevant model of a Cr$^{3+}_{8}$ ring. Here, our approach has qubit requirements that are independent of the number of constituents of the many-body system and scale only logarithmically with the bond dimension of the MPS representation, making them appealing for implementation on near-term quantum hardware with mid-circuit measurement and reset.

Neutron scattering

Quantum Computing for Energy-Related Applications

Growing interest in quantum computing and simulations have created opportunities for its deployment to improve processes pertaining to energy production, distribution, and consumption. While quantum computing is considered as a paradigm shift in our basic understanding of physical computation, effective implementation of quantum computing in energy applications also depends on progress and development in the dimensions of both quantum computing hardware and quantum computing algorithms. To fully address the status and future challenges of quantum information science (QIS) applied within the energy sector, in this presentation, we firstly summarize recent advancements on the applications of quantum computing to energy infrastructure and materials, complex energy system processes, advanced manufacturing, and energy system security. Then, we will demonstrate the results of quantum computing both on a simulator and a quantum device accessing from OLCF. Our first example is to use the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) with a unitary coupled cluster with singles and doubles (UCCSD) ansatz to simulate a series of LixHyq molecules (q=-1, 0, +1). The obtained results showed that the quantum computing VQE-UCCSD is comparable to classical CCSD for small systems like LiH with respect to full configuration interaction (FCI). Targeting on CO2 capture application, our second example is to use VQE to quantify molecular vibrational energies and reaction pathways between CO2 and a simplified amine-based solvent model—NH3 to form H2NCOOH. This research showcases quantum computing applications in the study of CO2 capture reactions.

Duan, Yuhua

Radiative processes on a quantum computer

Radiative processes, where a photon/neutrino is emitted as a result of a collision or decay of a particle, play a central role in atomic, nuclear, and particle physics. Their rate is determined by certain off-diagonal matrix elements between different initial and final states. We propose a method to compute them using quantum computers. It relies on a single extra qubit that, in a certain sense, represents the photon/neutrino. The generic formula relating this matrix element to the amplitude and frequency of oscillations of the extra qubit is derived for the near-resonance case. Furthermore, we demonstrate the feasibility of the method by using it in actual quantum computations and simulations of simple systems.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Lie-algebraic classical simulations for quantum computing

The classical simulation of quantum dynamics plays an important role in our understanding of quantum complexity and in the development of quantum technologies. Efficient techniques such as those based on the Gottesman-Knill theorem for Clifford circuits, tensor networks for low entanglement-generating circuits, or Wick's theorem for fermionic Gaussian states have become central tools in quantum computing. In this work, we contribute to this body of knowledge by presenting a framework for classical simulations, dubbed “𝔤-sim”, which is based on the underlying Lie algebraic structure of the dynamical process. When the dimension of the algebra grows at most polynomially in the system size, there exist observables for which the simulation is efficient. Indeed, we show that 𝔤-sim enables new regimes for classical simulations, is able to deal with certain forms of noise in the evolution, as well as can be used to tackle several paradigmatic variational and nonvariational quantum computing tasks. For the former, we perform Lie-algebraic simulations to train and optimize parametrized quantum circuits (thus effectively showing that some variational models can be dequantized), design enhanced parameter initialization strategies, solve tasks of quantum circuit synthesis, and train a quantum-phase classifier. For the latter, we report large-scale noiseless and noisy simulations on benchmark problems. By comparing the limitations of 𝔤-sim and certain Wick's theorem-based simulations, we find that the two methods become inefficient for different types of states or observables, hinting at the existence of distinct, nonequivalent resources for classical simulation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Benchmarking quantum computers

The rapid pace of development in quantum computing technology has sparked a proliferation of benchmarks to assess the performance of quantum computing hardware and software. However, not all benchmarks are of equal merit. Good ones empower scientists, engineers, programmers and users to understand the power of a computing system, whereas bad ones can misdirect research and inhibit progress. In this Perspective, we survey the science of quantum computer benchmarking. Here, we discuss the role of benchmarks and benchmarking and how good benchmarks can drive and measure progress towards the long-term goal of useful quantum computations, known as quantum utility. We explain how different kinds of benchmark quantify the performance of different parts of a quantum computer, discuss existing benchmarks, examine recent trends in benchmarking, and highlight important open research questions in this field.

Proctor, Timothy James [Sandia National Laboratori

Energy and physical resource impacts of quantum computing merit greater attention

Quantum computing research and development is growing worldwide; yet the energy and physical resource demands of future quantum-accelerated data centres are unknown. Planning for quantum computing requires strong collaboration between research communities across engineering, physics, environmental sciences, economics, policy, and energy systems and scenario modelling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Quantum Computing Market Report

The quantum computing market is entering a rapid growth phase. Growth was originally driven by private investment interest in high value applications such as drug discovery, materials science, and finance. Currently the main market drivers include technical advances, continued private investment, and rising public funding. The quantum computing market is poised for explosive growth — with its market size estimated at $1.42 billion USD in 2024, and an expected compound annual growth rate of 20.5% from 2025 to 2030 [4]. Superconducting qubits are the largest qubit type by revenue. However, alternative approaches such as trapped ion, neutral atom, spin based, and photonic qubits are also attracting investment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

How Do You Hear a Quantum Computer Whisper?

Quantum transduction is the process of upconverting microwave quantum signals into optical signals to develop quantum networks through optical fibers outside the dilution refrigerator, enabling connections between quantum technologies on the quantum internet. In this project, upconversion is achieved by directing an optical laser and the microwave quantum signal into an electro-optic bulk crystal. The crystal is housed within a Superconducting Radio Frequency (SRF) cavity designed to maximize the overlap between the microwave field and the crystal volume. In the presence of microwaves, the refractive index of the crystal changes through the Pockels effect. This change in refractive index modifies the propagation of the optical field within the crystal, allowing the quantum information carried by the microwave field to be transferred to the optical field. This study focuses on coupling laser light from suspended waveguide chips into the whispering-gallery modes (WGMs) of the crystal to enable transduction. The coupling efficiency between the optical field in the suspended waveguide and the WGM depends on the position of the laser spot on the crystal. To address this challenge, a feedback-based algorithm is being developed to fine-tune the waveguide position so that the optical signal is coupled efficiently into the crystal. After passing through the crystal, the optical signal is detected by a photodiode connected to an oscilloscope. The algorithm evaluates the coupling quality and iteratively adjusts the waveguide position to maximize coupling efficiency. The expected outcome is an automated waveguide alignment method that improves optical coupling and enables more efficient microwave-to-optical quantum transduction.

Karanastasis, Mihael [Fermilab]

ARQUIN: Architectures for Multinode Superconducting Quantum Computers

Many proposals to scale quantum technology rely on modular or distributed designs wherein individual quantum processors, called nodes, are linked together to form one large multinode quantum computer (MNQC). One scalable method to construct an MNQC is using superconducting quantum systems with optical interconnects. However, internode gates in these systems may be two to three orders of magnitude noisier and slower than local operations. Surmounting the limitations of internode gates will require improvements in entanglement generation, use of entanglement distillation, and optimized software and compilers. Still, it remains unclear what performance is possible with current hardware and what performance algorithms require. In this article, we employ a systems analysis approach to quantify overall MNQC performance in terms of hardware models of internode links, entanglement distillation, and local architecture. We show how to navigate tradeoffs in entanglement generation and distillation in the context of algorithm performance, lay out how compilers and software should balance between local and internode gates, and discuss when noisy quantum internode links have an advantage over purely classical links. Here, we find that a factor of 10–100× better link performance is required and introduce a research roadmap for the co-design of hardware and software towards the realization of early MNQCs. While we focus on superconducting devices with optical interconnects, our approach is general across MNQC implementations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC