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At least 37 records · Page 2

Compilation and Evaluation of Data from Groundwater Impounded within the U12n and U12t Tunnels, Rainier and Aqueduct Mesas, Nevada National Security Site

The Department of Defense (DOD) Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Environmental Management Nevada Program (EM NV) conducted routine physical and geochemical monitoring of water impounded behind impermeable structures placed within the U12n and U12t tunnels on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) (formerly the Nevada Test Site [NTS]). Desert Research Institute (DRI) conducted a semiquantitative evaluation of pressure data to determine the extent to which the tunnels have been inundated and a qualitative evaluation of monitored geochemical parameters to determine if trends exist that were indicative of hydrologic and/or geochemical processes operating behind the tunnel plugs. Data were also evaluated to determine if monitored radiological parameters exceeded primary standards associated with the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) (40 C.F.R. § 141.66).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASCAP modelling computations on large optics spacecraft in geosynchronous substorm environments

The NASA Charging Analyzer Program (NASCAP) is used to evaluate qualitatively the possibility of such enhanced spacecraft contamination on a conceptual version of a large satellite. The evaluation is made by computing surface voltages on the satellite due to encounters with substorm environments and then computing charged particle trajectories in the electric fields around the satellite. Particular attention is paid to the possibility of contaminants reaching a mirror surface inside a dielectric tube because this mirror represents a shielded optical surface in the satellite model used. Deposition of low energy charged particles from other parts of the spacecraft onto the mirror was found to be possible in the assumed moderate substorm environment condition. In the assumed severe substorm environment condition, however, voltage build up on the inside and edges of the dielectric tube in which the mirror is located prevents contaminants from reaching the mirror surface.

Stevens, N. J.↗

Integration of Propulsion-Airframe-Aeroacoustic Technologies and Design Concepts for a Quiet Blended-Wing-Body Transport

This paper summarizes the results of studies undertaken to investigate revolutionary propulsion-airframe configurations that have the potential to achieve significant noise reductions over present-day commercial transport aircraft. Using a 300 passenger Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) as a baseline, several alternative low-noise propulsion-airframe-aeroacoustic (PAA) technologies and design concepts were investigated both for their potential to reduce the overall BWB noise levels, and for their impact on the weight, performance, and cost of the vehicle. Two evaluation frameworks were implemented for the assessments. The first was a Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) process that used a Pugh Evaluation Matrix coupled with the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). This process provided a qualitative evaluation of the PAA technologies and design concepts and ranked them based on how well they satisfied chosen design requirements. From the results of the evaluation, it was observed that almost all of the PAA concepts gave the BWB a noise benefit, but degraded its performance. The second evaluation framework involved both deterministic and probabilistic systems analyses that were performed on a down-selected number of BWB propulsion configurations incorporating the PAA technologies and design concepts. These configurations included embedded engines with Boundary Layer Ingesting Inlets, Distributed Exhaust Nozzles installed on podded engines, a High Aspect Ratio Rectangular Nozzle, Distributed Propulsion, and a fixed and retractable aft airframe extension. The systems analyses focused on the BWB performance impacts of each concept using the mission range as a measure of merit. Noise effects were also investigated when enough information was available for a tractable analysis. Some tentative conclusions were drawn from the results. One was that the Boundary Layer Ingesting Inlets provided improvements to the BWB's mission range, by increasing the propulsive efficiency at cruise, and therefore offered a means to offset performance penalties imposed by some of the advanced PAA configurations. It was also found that the podded Distributed Exhaust Nozzle configuration imposed high penalties on the mission range and the need for substantial synergistic performance enhancements from an advanced integration scheme was identified. The High Aspect Ratio Nozzle showed inconclusive noise results and posed significant integration difficulties. Distributed Propulsion, in general, imposed performance penalties but may offer some promise for noise reduction from jet-to-jet shielding effects. Finally, a retractable aft airframe extension provided excellent noise reduction for a modest decrease in range.

Hill, G. A.↗

PSA 2025 DPRA for Cyber Optimization

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Evaluating defense options should include quantitative evaluation of overall effectiveness to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation and have difficulty with time dependent scenarios. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related integrity is a requirement set by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. But companies are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want reliability analysis while optimizing cost, which requires more than safety modeling methods. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with timing and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues such as state-base explosion found in Markov-based tools. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Low Cost Large Core Vehicle Structures Assessment

Boeing Information, Space, and Defense Systems executed a Low Cost Large Core Vehicle Structures Assessment (LCLCVSA) under contract to NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) between November 1997 and March 1998. NASA is interested in a low-cost launch vehicle, code named Magnum, to place heavy payloads into low earth orbit for missions such as a manned mission to Mars, a Next Generation Space Telescope, a lunar-based telescope, the Air Force's proposed space based laser, and large commercial satellites. In this study, structural concepts with the potential to reduce fabrication costs were evaluated in application to the Magnum Launch Vehicle (MLV) and the Liquid Fly Back Booster (LFBB) shuttle upgrade program. Seventeen concepts were qualitatively evaluated to select four concepts for more in-depth study. The four structural concepts selected were: an aluminum-lithium monocoque structure, an aluminum-lithium machined isogrid structure, a unitized composite sandwich structure, and a unitized composite grid structure. These were compared against a baseline concept based on the Space Shuttle External Tank (ET) construction. It was found that unitized composite structures offer significant cost and weight benefits to MLV structures. The limited study of application to LFBB structures indicated lower, but still significant benefits. Technology and facilities development roadmaps to prepare the approaches studied for application to MLV and LFBB were constructed. It was found that the cost and schedule to develop these approaches were in line with both MLV and LFBB development schedules. Current Government and Boeing programs which address elements of the development of the technologies identified are underway. It is recommended that NASA devote resources in a timely fashion to address the specific elements related to MLV and LFBB structures.

Hahn, Steven E.↗

Effects of antenna orientation on GPS carrier phase

The observed carrier phase in the Global Positioning System depends on the orientation of the antennas of the transmitter and the receiver as well as the direction of the line of sight. Two equivalent analytic formulas are derived for the correction based on the property of circularly polarized wave. The magnitude of the correction is evaluated with a simulation. Result from a GPS experiment is shown for the effect of the phase correction. A general formula useful for qualitative evaluation of the differenced measurements is given in terms of the solid angles subtended at the center of the earth by the receivers and transmitters involved.

Wu, J. T.↗

Flame Movement and Pressure Development in an Engine Cylinder

This investigation describes a visual method for making stroboscopic observations, through a large number of small windows, of the spread of flame throughout the combustion chamber of a gasoline engine. Data, secured by this method on a small engine burning gaseous fuels, are given to show the effects of mixture ratio, spark advance, engine speed, charge density, degree of dilution, compression ratio, and fuel composition on flame movement in the cylinder. Partial indicator diagrams showing pressure development during the combustion period are included. Although present knowledge is not sufficient to permit qualitative evaluation of the separate effects on flame movement of chemical reaction velocity, thermal expansion of burned gases, resonance, turbulence, and piston movement, the qualitative influence of certain of these factors on some of the diagrams is indicated.

Marvin, Charles F , Jr↗

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A statistical evaluation and comparison of VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data

In order to account for the temporal and spatial discrepancies between the VAS and rawinsonde soundings, the rawinsonde data were adjusted to a common hour of release where the new observation time corresponded to the satellite scan time. Both the satellite and rawinsonde observations of the basic atmospheric parameters (T Td, and Z) were objectively analyzed to a uniform grid maintaining the same mesoscale structure in each data set. The performance of each retrieval algorithm in producing accurate and representative soundings was evaluated using statistical parameters such as the mean, standard deviation, and root mean square of the difference fields for each parameter and grid level. Horizontal structure was also qualitatively evaluated by examining atmospheric features on constant pressure surfaces. An analysis of the vertical structure of the atmosphere were also performed by looking at colocated and grid mean vertical profiles of both the satellite and rawinsonde data sets. Highlights of these results are presented.

Jedlovec, G. J.↗

Evaluation of the electro-optic direction sensor

Evaluation of a no-moving-parts single-axis star tracker called an electro-optic direction sensor (EODS) concept is described and the results are given in detail. The work involved experimental evaluation of a breadboard sensor yielding results which would permit design of a prototype sensor for a specific application. The laboratory work included evaluation of the noise equivalent input angle of the sensor, demonstration of a technique for producing an acquisition signal, constraints on the useful field-of-view, and a qualitative evaluation of the effects of stray light. In addition, the potential of the silicon avalanche-type photodiode for this application was investigated. No benefit in noise figure was found, but the easily adjustable gain of the avalanche device was useful. The use of mechanical tuning of the modulating element to reduce voltage requirements was also explored. The predicted performance of EODS in both photomultiplier and solid state detector configurations was compared to an existing state-of-the-art star tracker.

Johnson, A. R.↗

Demonstrating the viability of Lagrangian in situ reduction on supercomputers

Performing exploratory analysis and visualization of large-scale time-varying computational science applications is challenging due to inaccuracies that arise from under-resolved data. In recent years, Lagrangian representations of the vector field computed using in situ processing are being increasingly researched and have emerged as a potential solution to enable exploration. However, prior works have offered limited estimates of the encumbrance on the simulation code as they consider “theoretical” in situ environments. Further, the effectiveness of this approach varies based on the nature of the vector field, benefitting from an in-depth investigation for each application area. With this study, an extended version of Sane et al. (2021), we contribute an evaluation of Lagrangian analysis viability and efficacy for simulation codes executing at scale on a supercomputer. We investigated previously unexplored cosmology and seismology applications as well as conducted a performance benchmarking study by using a hydrodynamics mini-application targeting exascale computing. Here, to inform encumbrance, we integrated in situ infrastructure with simulation codes, and evaluated Lagrangian in situ reduction in representative homogeneous and heterogeneous HPC environments. To inform post hoc accuracy, we conducted a statistical analysis across a range of spatiotemporal configurations as well as a qualitative evaluation. Additionally, our study contributes cost estimates for distributed-memory post hoc reconstruction. In all, we demonstrate viability for each application — data reduction to less than 1% of the total data via Lagrangian representations, while maintaining accurate reconstruction and requiring under 10% of total execution time in over 90% of our experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Experimental investigation of three helicopter rotor airfoils designed analytically

Three helicopter rotor airfoils designed analytically were investigated in a wind tunnel at Mach numbers from about 0.30 to 0.90 and Reynolds from about 0.8 to 2.3 x 10 to the 6th power. The airfoils had thickness-to-chord ratios of 0.08, 0.10, and 0.12 with maximum thickness at 40 percent chord. The camber distribution of each section was the same with maximum camber at 35 percent chord. The 10-percent-thick airfoil was also investigated at Reynolds numbers from 4.8 to 9.4 x 10 to the 6th power. The drag divergence Mach number of the 10-percent-thick airfoil is about 0.83 at a normal-force coefficient of 0 and about 0.72 at a normal-force coefficient of 0.6 at Reynolds numbers near 9 x 10 to the 6th power. The maximum normal-force coefficient is slightly less than that of the NACA 0012 airfoil tested in the same facility. The results indicate that a qualitative evaluation of the drag divergence can be made at normal-force coefficients up to the onset of boundary-layer separation by analytically predicting the onset of sonic flow at the airfoil crest. The qualitative results are conservative with respect to experimental values with the experimental drag divergence Mach number up to 0.05 higher than that indicated by analysis.

Bingham, G. J.↗

Food System Trade Study for a Near-Term Mars Mission

This paper evaluates several food system options for a near-term Mars mission, based on plans for the 120-day BIO-Plex test. Food systems considered in the study are based on the International Space Station (ISS) Assembly Phase and Assembly Complete food systems. The four systems considered are: 1) ISS assembly phase food system (US portion) with individual packaging without salad production; 2) ISS assembly phase food system (US portion) with individual packaging, with salad production; 3) ISS assembly phase food system (US portion) with bulk packaging, with salad production; 4) ISS assembly complete food system (US portion) with bulk packaging with salad and refrigeration/freezing. The food system options are assessed using equivalent system mass (ESM), which evaluates each option based upon the mass, volume, power, cooling and crewtime requirements that are associated with each food system option. However, since ESM is unable to elucidate the differences in psychological benefits between the food systems, a qualitative evaluation of each option is also presented.

Levri, Julie↗

Evaluation of change detection techniques for monitoring coastal zone environments

The author has identified the following significant results. Four change detection techniques were designed and implemented for evaluation: (1) post classification comparison change detection, (2) delta data change detection, (3) spectral/temporal change classification, and (4) layered spectral/temporal change classification. The post classification comparison technique reliably identified areas of change and was used as the standard for qualitatively evaluating the other three techniques. The layered spectral/temporal change classification and the delta data change detection results generally agreed with the post classification comparison technique results; however, many small areas of change were not identified. Major discrepancies existed between the post classification comparison and spectral/temporal change detection results.

Weismiller, R. A.↗

Functional Relevance of CASP16 Nucleic Acid Predictions as Evaluated by Structure Providers

ABSTRACT Accurate biomolecular structure prediction enables the prediction of mutational effects, the speculation of function based on predicted structural homology, the analysis of ligand binding modes, experimental model building, and many other applications. Such algorithms to predict essential functional and structural features remain out of reach for biomolecular complexes containing nucleic acids. Here, we report a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of nucleic acid structures for the CASP16 blind prediction challenge by 12 of the experimental groups who provided nucleic acid targets. Blind predictions accurately model secondary structure and some aspects of tertiary structure, including reasonable global folds for some complex RNAs; however, predictions often lack accuracy in the regions of highest functional importance. All models have inaccuracies in non‐canonical regions where, for example, the nucleic‐acid backbone bends, deviating from an A‐form helix geometry, or a base forms a non‐standard hydrogen bond (not a Watson‐Crick base pair). These bends and non‐canonical interactions are integral to forming functionally important regions such as RNA enzymatic active sites. Additionally, the modeling of conserved and functional interfaces between nucleic acids and ligands, proteins, or other nucleic acids remains poor. For some targets, the experimental structures may not represent the only structure the biomolecular complex occupies in solution or in its functional life cycle, posing a future challenge for the community.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

Open Source Evaluation Framework for Solar Forecasting

The Solar Forecast Arbiter is an open-source evaluation framework for solar forecasting. The framework enables evaluations of solar irradiance, solar power, and net-load forecasts that are impartial, repeatable and auditable. The Solar Forecast Arbiter addresses stakeholder-informed use cases including evaluation of forecast skill, comparisons to reference data sets, private forecast trials, and evaluation of probabilistic forecast skill. The framework includes a data validation toolkit, reference data sources, data privacy protocols, and benchmark forecast capabilities for intra-hour and day ahead forecast horizons. Reports and metrics communicate the relative merits of the test and benchmark forecasts. The reports are created from standardized templates and include graphics for qualitatively evaluating deterministic and probabilistic forecasts and standard metrics for quantitatively evaluating forecasts. The Solar Forecast Arbiter is designed to support all solar forecasting stakeholders, including Solar Forecasting 2 Topic Area 2 and Topic Area 3 teams.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A ductility metric for refractory-based multi-principal-element alloys

We propose a quantum-mechanical dimensionless metric, the local-lattice distortion (LLD), as a reliable predictor of ductility in refractory multi-principal-element alloys (RMPEAs). The LLD metric is based on electronegativity differences in localized chemical environments and combines atomic-scale displacements due to local lattice distortions with a weighted average of valence-electron count. To evaluate the effectiveness of this metric, we examined body-centered cubic (bcc) refractory alloys that exhibit ductile-to-brittle behavior. Our findings demonstrate that local-charge behavior can be tuned via composition to enhance ductility in RMPEAs. With finite-sized cell effects eliminated, the LLD metric accurately predicted the ductility of arbitrary alloys, which compares well with existing tensile-elongation experiments. To validate further, we qualitatively evaluated the ductility of two refractory RMPEAs, i.e., NbTaMoW and Mo 72 W 13 Ta 10 Ti 2.5 Zr 2.5 , through the observation of crack formation under indentation, again showing excellent agreement with LLD predictions. Additionally, a comparative study of three refractory alloys provides further insights into the electronic-structure origin of ductility in refractory RMPEAs. This proposed metric enables rapid and accurate assessment of ductility behavior in the vast RMPEA composition space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Integrating Cambium Marginal Costs into Electric Sector Decisions: Opportunities to Integrate Cambium Marginal Cost Data into Berkeley Lab Analysis and Technical Assistance

NREL’s Cambium tool generates forward-looking simulations of marginal wholesale electricity costs associated with NREL’s Standard Scenarios. The scenarios include growing shares of variable renewable energy (VRE, i.e. wind and solar), among other power sector assumptions, between 2018 and 2050. The tool’s primary output—hourly costs at more than 130 balancing areas—could serve as public and transparent data source that supports electric-sector decision-making processes across the U.S. Berkeley Lab conducts a large range of analyses that use historical and forward-looking wholesale electricity prices to inform electric-sector decisions. In this report, Berkeley Lab uses its expertise to evaluate the Cambium cost data. We compare Cambium data with historical wholesale prices for the year 2018 and other modeled prices for the year 2030. We then present eight case studies in which Berkeley Lab researchers use Cambium data to replicate previous analyses based on other price datasets. We describe where primary findings and underlying key price dynamics align or differ, and highlight possible novel insights from the Cambium data. Finally, we qualitatively evaluate the suitability of Cambium costs in ten additional Berkeley Lab studies, though a direct comparison with alternative price data was not feasible at this time. The goal is to inform how electric-sector decision-makers and DOE program offices may be able to use this cohesive dataset, and to highlight what improvements to Cambium may make it even more useful.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗