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DOE OSTI2026

Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP)

Anthropogenic climate change is unfolding rapidly, yet its regional manifestation can be obscured by internal variability. A primary goal of climate science is to identify the externally forced climate response from among the noise of internal variability. Separating the forced response from internal variability can be addressed in climate models by using a large ensemble to average over different possible realizations of internal variability. However, with only one realization of the real world, it is a major challenge to isolate the forced response directly in observations. In the Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP), contributors used existing and newly developed statistical and machine learning methods to estimate the forced response over 1950–2022 within individual realizations of the climate system. Participants used neural networks, linear inverse models, fingerprinting methods, and low-frequency component analysis, among other approaches. These methods were trained using large ensembles from multiple climate models and then applied to observations. Here, we evaluate method performance within large ensembles and investigate the estimates of the forced response in observations. Our results show that many different types of methods are skillful for estimating the forced response in climate models, though the relative skill of individual methods varies depending on the variable and evaluation metric. Methods with comparable skill in models can give a wide range of estimates of the forced response pattern in observations, illustrating the epistemic uncertainty in forced response estimates. ForceSMIP gives new insights into the forced response in observations, its uncertainty, and methods for its estimation.

Climate attribution↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simplified Approximations of Direct Cumulus Entrainment and Detrainment

Abstract In recent years, direct calculations of simulated cumulus entrainment and detrainment have facilitated new physical insights into these highly elusive but critically important processes. However, these calculations require substantial computational resources that may limit their widespread usage. To facilitate such calculations, two simplified approximations of direct cumulus entrainment and detrainment are examined herein. The first approximation, termed the “semidirect” method, follows a standard bulk approach but makes more realistic assumptions about the sources of entrained and detrained air near the cloud edges. In contrast, the second approximation (the “projection” method) uses the governing equations of motion to project whether grid points near the cloud edge will entrain or detrain as the mean cloud ascends by one grid point. Verification exercises using large-eddy simulations reveal that both methods generally agree better with corresponding direct entrainment/detrainment estimates than the traditional bulk formulation, with the projection method outperforming the semidirect method. The two methods can be used in a synergistic fashion, with the semidirect method helping to optimize the projection method, to suit a wide range of applications. Because the latter incorporates the essential dynamics of entrainment and detrainment at the local scale, it can be used to gain physical insight into the causal mechanisms regulating these complex processes.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Online Voltage Control for Unbalanced Distribution Networks Using Projected Newton Method

Not provided.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development, Implementation, and Verification of Partially-Ionized Collisional Multifluid Plasma Models in Drekar

We consider the development of multifluid models for partially ionized multispecies plasmas. The models are composed of a standard set of five-moment fluid equations for each species plus a description of electromagnetics. The most general model considered utilizes a full set of fluid equations for each charge state of each atomic species, plus a set of fluid equations for electrons. The fluid equations are coupled through source terms describing electromagnetic coupling, ionization, recombination, charge exchange, and elastic scattering collisions in the low-density coronal limit. The form of each of these source terms is described in detail, and references for required rate coefficients are identified for a diverse range of atomic species. Initial efforts have been made to extend these models to incorporate some higher-density collisional effects, including ionization potential depression and three- body recombination. Some reductions of the general multifluid model are considered. First, a reduced multifluid model is derived which averages over all of the charge states (including neutrals) of each atomic species in the general multifluid model. The resulting model maintains full consistency with the general multifluid model from which it is derived by leveraging a quasi-steady-state collisional ionization equilibrium assumption to recover the ionization fractions required to make use of the general collision models. Further reductions are briefly considered to derive certain components of a single-fluid magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model. In this case, a generalized Ohm's law is obtained, and the standard MHD resistivity is expressed in terms of the collisional models used in the general multifluid model. A number of numerical considerations required to obtain robust implementations of these multifluid models are discussed. First, an algebraic flux correction (AFC) stabilization approach for a continuous Galerkin finite element discretization of the multifluid system is described in which the characteristic speeds used in the stabilization of the fluid systems are synchronized across all species in the model. It is demonstrated that this synchronization is crucial in order to obtain a robust discretization of the multifluid system. Additionally, several different formulations are considered for describing the electromagnetics portion of the multifluid system using nodal continuous Galerkin finite element discretizations. The formulations considered include a parabolic divergence cleaning method and an implicit projection method for the traditional curl formulation of Maxwell's equations, a purely- hyperbolic potential-based formulation of Maxwell's equations, and a mixed hyperbolic-elliptic potential-based formulation of Maxwell's equations. Some advantages and disadvantages of each formulation are explored to compare solution robustness and the ease of use of each formulation. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of various components of our implementation. Analytic solutions for a spatially homogeneous damped plasma oscillation are derived in order to verify the implementation of the source terms for electromagnetic coupling and elastic collisions between fluid species. Ionization balance as a function of electron temperature is evaluated for several atomic species of interest by comparing to steady-state calculations using various sets of ionization and recombination rate coefficients. Several test problems in one and two spatial dimensions are used to demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the discretization and stabilization approach for the fluid components of the multifluid system. This includes standard test problems for electrostatic and electromagnetic shock tubes in the two-fluid and ideal shock-MHD limits, a cylindrical diocotron instability, and the GEM challenge magnetic reconnection problem. A one-dimensional simplified prototype of an argon gas puff configuration as deployed on Sandia's Z-machine is used as a demonstration to exercise the full range of capabilities associated with the general multifluid model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The ZTF Source Classification Project. I. Methods and Infrastructure

The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) has been observing the entire northern sky since the start of 2018 down to a magnitude of 20.5 (5σ for 30 s exposure) in the g, r, and i filters. Over the course of two years, ZTF has obtained light curves of more than a billion sources, each with 50–1000 epochs per light curve in g and r, and fewer in i. To be able to use the information contained in the light curves of variable sources for new scientific discoveries, an efficient and flexible framework is needed to classify them. In this paper, we introduce the methods and infrastructure that will be used to classify all ZTF light curves. Our approach aims to be flexible and modular and allows the use of a dynamical classification scheme and labels, continuously evolving training sets, and the use of different machine-learning classifier types and architectures. Finally with this setup, we are able to continuously update and improve the classification of ZTF light curves as new data become available, training samples are updated, and new classes need to be incorporated.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating eigenvalue computation for nuclear structure calculations via perturbative corrections

Subspace projection methods utilizing perturbative corrections have been proposed for computing the lowest few eigenvalues and corresponding eigenvectors of large Hamiltonian matrices. In this paper, we build upon these methods and introduce the term Subspace Projection with Perturbative Corrections (SPPC) method to refer to this approach. We tailor the SPPC for nuclear many-body Hamiltonians represented in a truncated configuration interaction subspace, i.e., the no-core shell model (NCSM). We use the hierarchical structure of the NCSM Hamiltonian to partition the Hamiltonian as the sum of two matrices. The first matrix corresponds to the Hamiltonian represented in a small configuration space, whereas the second is viewed as the perturbation to the first matrix. Eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the first matrix can be computed efficiently. Because of the split, perturbative corrections to the eigenvectors of the first matrix can be obtained efficiently from the solutions of a sequence of linear systems of equations defined in the small configuration space. These correction vectors can be combined with the approximate eigenvectors of the first matrix to construct a subspace from which more accurate approximations of the desired eigenpairs can be obtained. We show by numerical examples that the SPPC method can be more efficient than conventional iterative methods for solving large-scale eigenvalue problems such as the Lanczos, block Lanczos and the locally optimal block preconditioned conjugate gradient (LOBPCG) method. The method can also be combined with other methods to avoid convergence stagnation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nonlinear, real-time optimization for actuator management in tokamaks

Experiments in DIII-D have been carried out to test a novel actuator management approach in tokamaks. Here, the actuator management scheme is posed as a nonlinear-optimization problem in which the actuator commands are calculated in real time according to the changing control priorities, plasma state, and actuator availability. Such optimization problem is solved using the augmented Lagrangian method, combined with a gradient projection method and a conjugate-gradient iteration algorithm. The algorithmic approach followed in this work does not depend on the particular control objectives or actuators considered, which facilitates its integration with other independently-designed control components within a plasma-control system. In addition, the actuator-management algorithm is able to handle the optimization problem in a computationally efficient manner, making it suitable for real-time implementations. Initial DIII-D results in the steady-state high-q min scenario have demonstrated the capabilities of the actuator manager to perform both simultaneous multiple mission and repurposing sharing, which will be required in ITER.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A machine learning decision criterion for reducing scan time for hyperspectral neutron computed tomography systems

We present the first machine learning-based autonomous hyperspectral neutron computed tomography experiment performed at the Spallation Neutron Source. Hyperspectral neutron computed tomography allows the characterization of samples by enabling the reconstruction of crystallographic information and elemental/isotopic composition of objects relevant to materials science. High quality reconstructions using traditional algorithms such as the filtered back projection require a high signal-to-noise ratio across a wide wavelength range combined with a large number of projections. This results in scan times of several days to acquire hundreds of hyperspectral projections, during which end users have minimal feedback. To address these challenges, a golden ratio scanning protocol combined with model-based image reconstruction algorithms have been proposed. This novel approach enables high quality real-time reconstructions from streaming experimental data, thus providing feedback to users, while requiring fewer yet a fixed number of projections compared to the filtered back projection method. In this paper, we propose a novel machine learning criterion that can terminate a streaming neutron tomography scan once sufficient information is obtained based on the current set of measurements. Our decision criterion uses a quality score which combines a reference-free image quality metric computed using a pre-trained deep neural network with a metric that measures differences between consecutive reconstructions. The results show that our method can reduce the measurement time by approximately a factor of five compared to a baseline method based on filtered back projection for the samples we studied while automatically terminating the scans.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Coordinate transformation methodology for simulating quasistatic elastoplastic solids

Molecular dynamics simulations frequently employ periodic boundary conditions where the positions of the periodic images are manipulated in order to apply deformation to the material sample. For example, Lees-Edwards conditions use moving periodic images to apply simple shear. Here, we examine the problem of precisely comparing this type of simulation to continuum solid mechanics. We employ a hypo-elastoplastic mechanical model, and develop a projection method to enforce quasi-static equilibrium. We introduce a simulation framework that uses a fixed Cartesian computational grid on a reference domain, and imposes deformation via a time-dependent coordinate transformation to the physical domain. As a test case for our method, we consider the evolution of shear bands in a bulk metallic glass using the shear transformation zone theory of amorphous plasticity. We examine the growth of shear bands in simple shear and pure shear conditions as a function of the initial preparation of the bulk metallic glass.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Three-dimensional thermo-mechanical simulations of heterogeneous solid propellants

Here in this work, we present a numerical framework that describes thermo-mechanical deformations in a burning heterogeneous solid propellant. These deformations are quasi-static at time scales associated with combustion, and the resulting thermo-mechanical formulation is discretized on a Cartesian grid using a hypoelastic law. We use a weak form of Chorin-type projection method to deal with large difference in shear modulus of the constituent materials. Extending our previous two-dimensional work, grid convergence studies for a three-dimensional propellant configuration are presented for the stress, velocity, and reference map components. Finally, simulations are carried out for a random propellant pack that is coupled to a gas phase, and we present results for the pack undergoing combustion, with and without deformations.

simulations↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

This report documents the initial findings from the Nuclear Regulatory commission (NRC)-sponsored research project Methods for Estimating Joint Probabilities of Coincident and Correlated Flooding Mechanisms for Nuclear Power Plant Flood Hazard Assessments.1 This research project is a part of NRC’s Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Program and will aid the development of guidance on the use of PFHA methods to evaluate infrastructure safety for existing and proposed US nuclear power plants (NPPs). More specifically, this project intends to provide technical background for the development of flood hazard curves for multi-mechanism floods (MMFs). MMFs are flood events caused by more than one flooding mechanism (e.g., flood events due to the simultaneous occurrence of precipitation-induced river flooding and storm surge). Project activities include three main tasks: Task 1—Survey of current concepts and methods in assessing MMF hazards; Task 2—Critical assessment of selected methods and approaches for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk; Task 3—Development of example case studies to illustrate best practices for quantifying probabilistic MMF hazard risk The initial findings from Tasks 1 and 2 are documented in this report. Task 1 comprised a survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to understand and assess flood hazards due to MMFs. Task 2 involved a critical review of the selected approaches and methods. To that end, the scope of this report includes documentation of (1) a reconnaissance-level survey of the current state of concepts and practice for MMF hazard assessment; (2) a generalized MMF assessment framework to address the distinctions among various types of flood-forcing phenomena, flood mechanisms (grouped into three mechanism types), and flood severity metrics; (3) a wide-ranging survey of approaches and methods that have been applied to various flooding phenomena and settings; and (4) a critical assessment of MMF hazard assessment methods. Studies were identified involving MMFs related to coastal flooding mechanisms, fluvial (rivers/streams) flooding mechanisms, and associated combinations of coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms. Studies were also identified that address MMFs involving coastal and fluvial flooding mechanisms as well as coastal flooding mechanisms along with extreme precipitation (without specific attribution to fluvial or pluvial mechanisms). The studies identified for review in this report included assessments at varying spatial scales (from local to global) with differing geographic regions of focus using both observed and synthetic data. The majority of studies identified and reviewed were site-specific assessments focusing on relatively short return periods. Studies considered a range of flood severity metrics, made differing assumptions regarding the occurrence of extrema, and used multiple statistical techniques; the use of copulas for the development of joint distributions was a particularly popular analysis technique. The literature review highlighted the differences among existing studies relative to terminology used, means of presenting results, framework and techniques employed, and level of sophistication regarding the number and types of variables considered. Despite the significant diversity in existing studies, the review identified several promising techniques that will be considered in future work under this project, including the development of joint distributions for MMFs using copula and Bayesian-motivated approaches.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

Subspace recursive Fermi-operator expansion strategies for large-scale DFT eigenvalue problems on HPC architectures

Quantum mechanical calculations for material modeling using Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) involve the solution of a nonlinear eigenvalue problem for N smallest eigenvector-eigenvalue pairs, with N proportional to the number of electrons in the material system. Here, these calculations are computationally demanding and have asymptotic cubic scaling complexity with the number of electrons. Large-scale matrix eigenvalue problems arising from the discretization of the Kohn–Sham DFT equations employing a systematically convergent basis traditionally rely on iterative orthogonal projection methods, which are shown to be computationally efficient and scalable on massively parallel computing architectures. However, as the size of the material system increases, these methods are known to incur dominant computational costs through the Rayleigh–Ritz projection step of the discretized Kohn–Sham Hamiltonian matrix and the subsequent subspace diagonalization of the projected matrix. This work explores the potential of polynomial expansion approaches based on recursive Fermi-operator expansion as an alternative to the subspace diagonalization of the projected Hamiltonian matrix to reduce the computational cost. Subsequently, we perform a detailed comparison of various recursive polynomial expansion approaches to the traditional approach of explicit diagonalization on both multi-node central processing unit and graphics processing unit architectures and assess their relative performance in terms of accuracy, computational efficiency, scaling behavior, and energy efficiency.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Critical Review of Current Practice and Approaches

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A fourth order sharp immersed method for the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with stationary and moving boundaries and interfaces

We propose a fourth order Navier-Stokes solver based on the immersed interface method (IIM), for flow problems with stationary and one-way coupled moving boundaries and interfaces. Our algorithm employs a Runge-Kutta-based projection method that maintains high-order temporal accuracy in both velocity and pressure for steady and unsteady velocity boundary conditions. Fourth order spatial accuracy is achieved through a novel fifth order IIM discretization scheme for the advection term, as well as existing high-order interface-corrected finite difference schemes for the other differential operators. Using a set of manufactured flow problems with stationary and moving boundaries, we demonstrate fourth order convergence of velocity and pressure in the infinity norm, both inside the domain and on the immersed boundaries. The solver’s performance is further validated through a range of practical flow simulations, highlighting its efficiency over a second order scheme. Finally, we showcase the ability of our immersed discretization scheme to handle interface-coupled multiphysics problems by solving a conjugate heat transfer problem with multiple immersed solids. Overall, the proposed approach robustly combines the efficiency of high order discretization schemes with the flexibility of immersed discretizations for flow problems with complex, moving boundaries and interfaces.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Direct Nonlinear Approximation for Security Region Boundary of Integrated Energy Systems: A Polynomial Chaos Expansion Solution

The strong interdependence of electricity, gas, and heating systems can facilitate fault propagation within integrated energy systems (IESs), posing significant challenges to secure operation. This paper proposes a polynomial chaos expansion (PCE)-based approximation method to accurately characterize the IES security region boundary (IES–SRB). By integrating the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions with PCE theory, the IES-SRB approximation problem is reformulated as a set of nonlinear equations concerning the approximation coefficients. Using the Galerkin projection method, these equations are further transformed into a system of projection equations that govern the polynomial approximation coefficients in the IES-SRB approximation. To reduce computational complexity while maintaining high approximation accuracy, a piecewise polynomial approximation method is proposed. Numerical studies on the E39-G20-H6 and E118-G96-H52 IES test systems demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately and effectively construct IES security regions.

Wu, Chenghao [Northeast Electric Power University]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Observations and seismoacoustic simulations of earthquake-generated infrasound waves in non-epicentral regions

We analysed infrasound waves associated with the Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) that occurred on 2016 September 12, in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. For infrasound wave detection, the Progressive Multichannel Correlation method was applied to the infrasound data set recorded at seven arrays operating in South Korea at epicentral distances ranging from 178 to 472 km. Based on the back-projection method constrained by array-dependent celerity and azimuth deviation models, the source regions were identified in both the epicentral and non-epicentral regions. Remarkably, the non-epicentral secondary sources of this earthquake were located in regions with shallow water depths: (i) the western coastal area in the Yellow Sea and (ii) the shallow ocean basin and bank in the East Sea. The location results obtained from the earthquake could be corroborated through its foreshock (ML 5.1), yielding location results consistent with those of the main shock. The generation of infrasound waves over shallow water depths was fortuitously validated by direct recordings of dominant single-frequency (~0.3 Hz) infrasound waves at close range via temporary sensors near the ocean basin and bank. We interpreted that low-frequency infrasound signals could be generated from interactions among the ocean floor, shallow seawater and atmosphere. We performed numerical simulations of seismoacoustic fields to predict ground motions on the seafloor and acoustic transmission efficiency between the water and air interface. The simulations quantified the energy transfer through different media and clarified our observational results. We found that because this solid Earth‒water‒atmosphere coupled air wave has a relatively low frequency (~0.3 Hz), it can survive propagation over long distances compared with high-frequency infrasound waves generated in inland and mountain regions. In this study, we extend our understanding of water‒atmosphere coupling and the monitoring framework for earthquake-associated non-epicentral infrasound waves, encompassing not only inland ground shaking but also shallow sea regions located far from the epicentre.

Earthquake monitoring and test-ban treaty verifica↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of Artificial Compressibility Methods for Coupled Laminar Fluid Flow and Heat Transfer

Artificial compressibility (AC) methods for incompressible flows perturb the mass continuity equation by the time derivative of the pressure field to achieve direct coupling between pressure and velocity without the need for a projection method. Several variations of the original AC method have been proposed (e.g., the entropically damped artificial compressibility [EDAC] method) that can, in some scenarios, improve on the original model. In this paper, we methodically compare the results of the original AC model and the EDAC model for both steady-state and transient problems with coupling between the momentum and energy equations. We demonstrate that the EDAC model and the AC model yield similar numerical results, and the EDAC model is 10%-20% faster than the AC model for a given problem.

Oz, Furkan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000265831724)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Nonintrusive projection-based reduced order modeling using stable learned differential operators

Nonintrusive projection-based reduced order models (ROMs) are essential for dynamics prediction in multi-query applications where underlying governing equations are known but the access to the source of the underlying full order model (FOM) is unavailable; that is, FOM is a glass-box. This article proposes a learn-then-project approach for nonintrusive model reduction. In the first step of this approach, high-dimensional stable sparse learned differential operators (S-LDOs) are determined using the generated data. In the second step, the ordinary differential equations, comprising these S-LDOs, are used with suitable dimensionality reduction and low-dimensional subspace projection methods to provide equations for the evolution of reduced states. This approach allows easy integration into the existing intrusive ROM framework to enable nonintrusive model reduction while allowing the use of Petrov–Galerkin projections. The applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated for Galerkin and LSPG projection-based ROMs through four numerical experiments: 1-D scalar advection, 1-D Burgers, 2-D scalar advection and 1-D scalar advection–diffusion–reaction equations. In conclusion, the results indicate that the proposed nonintrusive ROM strategy provides accurate and stable dynamics prediction.

42 ENGINEERING↗