Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “projection”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) - A Project Assessment Framework in Support of Strategic Decision Making

Research and development organizations that push the innovation edge of technology frequently encounter challenges when attempting to identify an investment strategy and to accurately forecast the cost and schedule performance of selected projects. Fast moving and complex environments require managers to quickly analyze and diagnose the value of returns on investment versus allocated resources. Our Project Assessment Framework through Design (PAFTD) tool facilitates decision making for NASA senior leadership to enable more strategic and consistent technology development investment analysis, beginning at implementation and continuing through the project life cycle. The framework takes an integrated approach by leveraging design principles of useability, feasibility, and viability and aligns them with methods employed by NASA's Independent Program Assessment Office for project performance assessment. The need exists to periodically revisit the justification and prioritization of technology development investments as changes occur over project life cycles. The framework informs management rapidly and comprehensively about diagnosed internal and external root causes of project performance.

Depenbrock, Brett T.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Synthesizing Earth System Knowledge for Probabilistic Climate Projections

Over the last decades, climate science has evolved rapidly across multiple expert domains. Our best tools to capture state-of-the-art knowledge in an internally self-consistent modelling framework are the increasingly complex fully coupled Earth System Models (ESMs). However, computational limitations and the structural rigidity of ESMs mean that the full range of uncertainties across multiple domains are difficult to capture with ESMs alone. The tools of choice are instead more computationally efficient reduced complexity models (RCMs), which are structurally flexible and can span the response dynamics across a range of domain-specific models and ESM experiments. Here we present Phase 2 of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP Phase 2), the first comprehensive intercomparison of RCMs that are probabilistically calibrated with key benchmark ranges from specialized research communities. Unsurprisingly, but crucially, we find that models which have been constrained to reflect the key benchmarks better reflect the key benchmarks. Under the low-emissions SSP1-1.9 scenario, across the RCMs, median peak warming projections range from 1.3 to 1.7°C (relative to 1850-1900, using an observationally-based historical warming estimate of 0.8°C between 1850-1900 and 1995-2014). Further developing methodologies to constrain these projection uncertainties seems paramount given the international community's goal to contain warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial in the long-term. Our findings suggest that users of RCMs should carefully evaluate their RCM, specifically its skill against key benchmarks and consider the need to include projections benchmarks either from ESM results or other assessments to reduce divergence in future projections.

Climate↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗
NASA NTRS2003

Managing a project's legacy: implications for organizations and project management

Organizations that rely on projects to implement their products must find effective mechanisms for propagating lessons learned on one project throughout the organization. A broad view of what constitutes a project's 'legacy' is presented that includes not just the design products and leftover parts, but new processes, relationships, technology, skills, planning data, and performance metrics. Based on research evaluating knowledge reuse in innovative contexts, this paper presents an approach to project legacy management that focuses on collecting and using legacy knowledge to promote organizational learning and effective reuse, while addressing factors of post-project responsibility, information obsolescence, and the importance of ancillary contextual information. .

risk management↗
NASA NTRS2021

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6°C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Last Interglacial climate↗
DOE OSTI2025

Highly Resolved Reference Projections of Building Energy Use for the Contiguous United States: Building Sector Energy Baselines, Projection Methods, and Results

This report describes one methodology of projecting energy consumption of the US residential and commercial building sectors using NREL's ResStock™ and ComStock™ as well as growth rates derived from EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). The impetus for this work is to provide an intermediate method for compiling demand-side sectoral energy projections that is suitable for grid-scale analysis, such as NREL's Standard Scenarios. ResStock and ComStock are physics-based and statistically representative building stock models of the US residential and commercial sector, respectively. Using the 2012 actual meteorological year (AMY) weather data, the sectoral energy baselines are simulated and then segmented along key dimensions (e.g., geography, dwelling/building type). The segmented results are then scaled using the corresponding annual growth rates derived from the 2021 AEO reference case to produce energy projections out to 2050. The compiled result is a demand-side grid model (dsgrid) data set suitable for use in NREL's large-scale grid models, such as the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS). This simple projection method does not endogenously represent how the building stock could evolve through time. Most notably, it does not reflect large-scale electrification, for example, the conversion of space heating, water heating, clothes drying, and cooking from primary fossil fuels to electricity, as this is not part of AEO's reference case assumptions. Nonetheless this approach is more resolved and potentially extensible compared to the current method used by Standard Scenarios's reference case, which augments a sector's total load based on a single growth rate from AEO.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Project Accounting to Report the Full Impact of Combined Heat and Power Projects

Well-applied combined heat and power (CHP) is the most efficient method of generating electricity and useful thermal energy, producing substantially less emissions per MWhe compared to other combustion-based power generation technologies. This report explains how to apply the Greenhouse Gas Protocol for Project Accounting (Project Protocol) to quantify and report reductions in emissions resulting from onsite CHP projects that reduces electricity generated on the grid. Use of the Project Protocol captures the full emissions reduction impact realized from CHP systems, including impacts outside the boundaries of the host facility.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Project Management Approach to Using Simulation for Cost Estimation on Large, Complex Software Development Projects

It is very difficult for project managers to develop accurate cost and schedule estimates for large, complex software development projects. None of the approaches or tools available today can estimate the true cost of software with any high degree of accuracy early in a project. This paper provides an approach that utilizes a software development process simulation model that considers and conveys the level of uncertainty that exists when developing an initial estimate. A NASA project will be analyzed using simulation and data from the Software Engineering Laboratory to show the benefits of such an approach.

Mizell, Carolyn↗
DOE OSTI2025

Project "Right Way" Next Generation Melt Project: Phase 1 Performance Report Narrative (PRN)

In November 2024, AMERICAN entered into a Cooperative Agreement with the Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED) regarding the Industrial Decarbonization and Emissions Reduction Demonstration-To-Deployment Funding Opportunity for the “Right Way” Next Generation Melt Project (“Project”). This report encompasses initial planning and analysis activities to ensure that the project is viable.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1974

AAFE man-made noise experiment project. Volume 2: Project and experiment discussions

An experiment for the acquisition and processing of man-made noise interference data on earth orbital altitudes is discussed. The objectives of the project are to confirm the results of analytical studies concerning radio frequency man-made noise in space. It is stated that the measurements of the amounts and types of noise in frequency bands of interest could allow the allocation and utilization of frequencies to be optimized and would also contribute to the engineering objective of optimizing flight receiving systems. A second objective of the project was to design and fabricate a noise measuring receiver which would demonstrate the feasibility of the experiment design under the project. The procedures for acquiring and processing the electromagnetic radiation data are discussed.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1976

Tracking and data systems support for the Helios project. Volume 1: Project development through end of mission, phase 2

The overall evolution of the Helios Project is summarized from its conception through to the completion of the Helios-1 mission phase 2. Beginning with the project objectives and concluding with the Helios-1 spacecraft entering its first superior conjunction (end of mission phase 2), descriptions of the project, the mission and its phases, international management and interfaces, and Deep Space Network-spacecraft engineering development in telemetry, tracking, and command systems to ensure compatibility between the U.S. Deep Space Network and the German-built spacecraft are included.

Goodwin, P. S.↗
NASA NTRS1988

ART/Ada design project, phase 1: Project plan

The plan and schedule for Phase 1 of the Ada based ESBT Design Research Project is described. The main platform for the project is a DEC Ada compiler on VAX mini-computers and VAXstations running the Virtual Memory System (VMS) operating system. The Ada effort and lines of code are given in tabular form. A chart is given of the entire project life cycle.

Allen, Bradley P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Report 15: Technical uncertainty and project complexity as correlates of information use by US industry-affiliated aerospace engineers and scientists: Results of an exploratory investigation

An exploratory study was conducted that investigated the influence of technical uncertainty and project complexity on information use by U.S. industry-affiliated aerospace engineers and scientists. The study utilized survey research in the form of a self-administered mail questionnaire. U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists on the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) mailing list served as the study population. The adjusted response rate was 67 percent. The survey instrument is appendix C to this report. Statistically significant relationships were found to exist between technical uncertainty, project complexity, and information use. Statistically significant relationships were found to exist between technical uncertainty, project complexity, and the use of federally funded aerospace R&D. The results of this investigation are relevant to researchers investigating information-seeking behavior of aerospace engineers. They are also relevant to R&D managers and policy planners concerned with transferring the results of federally funded aerospace R&D to the U.S. aerospace industry.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Issues in NASA Program and Project Management. Special Report: 1997 Conference. Project Management Now and in the New Millennium

Topics Considered Include: NASA's Shared Experiences Program; Core Issues for the Future of the Agency; National Space Policy Strategic Management; ISO 9000 and NASA; New Acquisition Initiatives; Full Cost Initiative; PM Career Development; PM Project Database; NASA Fast Track Studies; Fast Track Projects; Earned Value Concept; Value-Added Metrics; Saturn Corporation Lessons Learned; Project Manager Credibility.

Hoffman, Edward J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Exercise Countermeasures Demonstration Project During the Lunar-Mars Life Support Test Project Phase 2A

This demonstration project assessed the crew members' compliance to a portion of the exercise countermeasures planned for use onboard the International Space Station (ISS) and the outcomes of their performing these countermeasures. Although these countermeasures have been used separately in other projects and investigations, this was the first time they'd been used together for an extended period (60 days) in an investigation of this nature. Crew members exercised every day for six days, alternating every other day between aerobic and resistive exercise, and rested on the seventh day. On the aerobic exercise days, subjects exercised on an electronically braked cycle ergometer using a protocol that has been previously shown to maintain aerobic capacity in subjects exposed to a space flight analogue. On the resistive exercise days, crew members performed five major multijoint resistive exercises in a concentric mode, targeting those muscle groups and bones we believe are most severely affected by space flight. The subjects favorably tolerated both exercise protocols, with a 98% compliance to aerobic exercise prescription and a 91% adherence to the resistive exercise protocol. After 60 days, the crew members improved their peak aerobic capacity by an average 7%, and strength gains were noted in all subjects. These results suggest that these exercise protocols can be performed during ISS, lunar, and Mars missions, although we anticipate more frequent bouts with both protocols for long-duration spaceflight. Future projects should investigate the impact of increased exercise duration and frequency on subject compliance, and the efficacy of such exercise prescriptions.

Lee, Stuart M. C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Project - line interaction implementing projects in JPL's Matrix

Can programmatic and line organizations really work interdependently, to accomplish their work as a community? Does the matrix produce a culture in which individuals take personal responsibility for both immediate mission success and long-term growth? What is the secret to making a matrix enterprise actually work? This paper will consider those questions, and propose that developing an effective project-line partnership demands primary attention to personal interactions among people. Many potential problems can be addressed by careful definition of roles, responsibilities, and work processes for both parts of the matrix -- and by deliberate and clear communication between project and line organizations and individuals.

project line partnership↗