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A series of outlines and graphs describing NASA's Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) technology prioritization are presented. Prioritization criteria and preliminary critical technology priorities for a first lunar outpost and a Mars and permanently-manned lunar mission are addressed.
This report details the observations from a two-day virtual workshop, held May 12-13, 2020, focused on whether, and how, artificial intelligence (AI) could assist humans in strategic planning, specifically in science and technology prioritization. The participants identified several “key challenges” that AI might tackle in this area. To further understand the value of these key challenges the workshop then developed related test cases that would demonstrate specifically how AI/machine learning (ML) could provide assistance to humans. Approximately 40 subject matter experts (SMEs), with backgrounds in AI, strategic planning for science, and scientific data, were gathered for the conference. This report collates the details of the output of the workshop. The “best” test cases include (in no particular order):Use of AI to assist in selecting Decadal Survey priorities. * Use of AI to identify new, or previously unidentified, science topics for prioritization. * Using AI to better label and increase discoverability of scientific literature and proposals. * Use of AI to enhance current observation capabilities for scientific missions. * Using AI to mitigate biases in selection of proposal reviewers and membership of advisory committees. Examination of these test cases indicates that Natural Language Processing (NLP) is a common capability found in most of the ”best” (top-rated) test cases and is a valuable, multi-purpose tool which enables ML in this area.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have potential to augment significantly the current labor-intensive processes of science prioritization, specifically by the National Academies’ Decadal Survey on behalf of NASA and NSF. Here we summarize what we believe to be the first exploratory demonstration-of-concept results from an application of AI/ML to Survey science prioritization. Specifically, we applied Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and Natural Language Processing (NLP) to reveal trends in published astrophysics research that may indicate science priorities and which could be applied to strategic planning. For the purpose of the work that we summarize here, AI/ML is able to analyze – that is, to “understand,” in a manner of speaking – a vast amount of text to reveal complex relationships among research topics, including the growth or decline of science community activities in those topics over time. We trained ourselves and AI/ML algorithms by using ~400,000 abstracts in the period 1998 to 2010 to “forecast” the Academies’ Astro2010 recommendations and compare with the solicited white papers. Comparing our results with actual Astro2010 recommendations allowed us to identify candidate metrics that better predicted the actual results of the Survey. We found, for example, that Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of papers published in a topic area is a good proxy measure for importance of this topic area of research. With this training complete, we identified candidate astrophysics astrophysics science priorities for the 2021+ period using the research during 2007 - 2019 . We conclude that appropriate application of AI can potentially significantly reduce the current workload of the Decadal Survey processes and reveal otherwise unrecognized characteristics in the body of astronomical research. We emphasize throughout the exploratory nature of our work, encouraging colleagues to pursue promising results further. Our most critical governing assumption was that increased (or decreased) research activity can be used to identify scientific or technology topic areas worthy of increased (or decreased) future emphasis. We discuss advantages, limitations, and recognize the “black box” nature of our technique. We note ethics issues associated, for example, with using AI/ML to reveal “hidden” meanings and biases in published work. Furthermore, inevitable improvements in AI may soon enable widespread and welcome identification of and advocacy for science and technology priorities by disparate and diverse groups and organizations. Consequently, we continue to urge a near-term, in-depth evaluation of appropriate applications of AI, including implications and consequences, as well as support for multiple follow-on assessments, of which ours is only a beginning.
This report outlines a framework for selecting structural and cladding materials for the Nuclear Science User Facilities (NSUF) SAM-3 neutron irradiation campaign to support the advancement of nuclear energy technologies. The document begins with an introduction that provides background context, highlights the motivations for launching a new irradiation campaign, and defines the overall objectives. The core of the report describes the design considerations for the irradiation campaign, including capsule configurations, irradiation temperature ranges, and target dose levels (defined by displacements per atom, or dpa). The material recommendation was guided by the Specimen Identification and Prioritization (SIP) Working Group, a multidisciplinary team of experts representing national laboratories, academia, industry, federal government and agency. This group played a central role in identifying candidate materials, evaluating technical justifications, and ensuring alignment with boarder programmatic goals. A detailed set of criteria for material prioritization is then presented, taking into account reactor relevance, performance gaps, advanced manufacturing methods, and emerging material classes. Based on the input of SIP working group, specific materials were selected and justified for inclusion in the irradiation campaign by the NSUF leadership and its U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)-Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) management. The final section provides recommended capsule designs, summarizing critical parameters such as material type, fabrication method, sample geometry, irradiation conditions, and specimen quantities. This report serves as a foundation for executing a focused and high-impact neutron irradiation campaign aimed at addressing key materials challenges for both existing and advanced nuclear reactors.
The Department of Energy (DOE) complex manages a significant inventory of excess nuclear materials for which disposition pathways have not been identified, commonly referred to as "To Be Determined" (TBD) items. The Disposition Pathways Program, initiated in FY2018, provides a standardized framework for identifying viable disposition pathways for these materials. In 2023, the program undertook a comprehensive review and systematic analysis of the remaining TBD material groups, updating the assessment from the 2020 TBD Study using the 2022 fiscal year-end Nuclear Material Inventory Assessment (NMIA) as the primary data source. This effort aimed to utilize quantitative analysis to down-select from a wide range of potential disposition options and prioritize the remaining pathways to facilitate informed, risk-based decision-making for future programmatic funding and execution. This paper details the alternative analysis methodology used for screening and prioritization, highlighting the key criteria, ranking process, and resultant recommendations. The study successfully narrowed fifty-two potential disposition options down to nineteen, providing a focused path forward for addressing a longstanding challenge within the DOE complex.
START is a tool to optimize research and development primarily for NASA missions. It was developed within the Strategic Systems Technology Program Office, a division of the Office of the Chief Technologist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. START is capable of quantifying and comparing the risks, costs, and potential returns of technologies that are candidates for funding. START can be enormously helpful both in selecting technologies for development -- within the constraints of budget, schedule, and other resources -- and in monitoring their progress. START's methods are applicable to everything from individual tasks to multiple projects comprising entire programs of investigation. They can address virtually any technology assessment and capability prioritization issue. In this report, START is used to analyze the capability needs using data from NASA's Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS).
Products are often discarded when they fail or no longer meet user needs. These outcomes are frequently shaped by early design decisions. While remanufacturing offers a sustainable alternative by restoring products to like‐new condition, its potential is often limited by designs that do not consider remanufacturing from the outset. This research addresses that challenge by introducing a structured Design for Remanufacturing (DfRem) methodology and a CAD‐integrated tool to support real‐time design decisions. The DfRem framework introduces a new primary design function focused on preserving product functionality across its life cycle. It is supported by a fault tree that identifies failure modes that limit remanufacturing potential and a hierarchy of design principles including Prevent, Minimize, Relocate, Restore, and others. Each principle is linked to actionable design rules that help engineers reduce the need for remanufacturing or improve its efficiency when necessary. To operationalize this framework, we developed CAD plugins for Autodesk Inventor and PTC Creo. These tools use a state machine model to present prioritized design rules based on selected failure modes and user input. By embedding DfRem logic directly into widely used CAD environments, the tool enables engineers to make sustainability‐informed decisions without disrupting existing workflows. Furthermore, this approach highlights the critical role of design in enabling circular and resource‐efficient product development, making remanufacturing a more practical and accessible strategy during the early stages of product design.
This study aims to support the prioritization of research and development (R&D) pathways of an anaerobic technology leveraging hydrogel-encapsulated biomass to treat high-strength organic industrial wastewaters, enabling decentralized energy recovery and treatment to reduce organic loading on centralized treatment facilities. To characterize the sustainability implications of early-stage design decisions and to delineate R&D targets, an encapsulated anaerobic process model was developed and coupled with design algorithms for integrated process simulation, techno-economic analysis, and life cycle assessment under uncertainty. Across the design space, a single-stage configuration with passive biogas collection was found to have the greatest potential for financial viability and the lowest life cycle carbon emission. Through robust uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, we found technology performance was driven by a handful of design and technological factors despite uncertainty surrounding many others. Hydraulic retention time and encapsulant volume were identified as the most impactful design decisions for the levelized cost and carbon intensity of chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal. Encapsulant longevity, a technological parameter, was the dominant driver of system sustainability and thus a clear R&D priority. Ultimately, we found encapsulated anaerobic systems with optimized fluidized bed design have significant potential to provide affordable, carbon-negative, and distributed COD removal from high strength organic wastewaters if encapsulant longevity can be maintained at 5 years or above.
MOTIVATION: Metabolic engineering is rapidly evolving as a result of new advances in synthetic biology tools and automation platforms that enable high throughput strain construction, as well as the development of machine learning tools (ML) for biology. However, selecting genetic engineering targets that effectively guide the metabolic engineering process is still challenging. ML can provide predictive power for synthetic biology, but current technical limitations prevent the independent use of ML approaches without previous biological knowledge. RESULTS: Here, we present FluxRETAP, a simple and computationally inexpensive method that leverages the prior mechanistic knowledge embedded in genome-scale models for suggesting targets for genetic overexpression, downregulation or deletion, with the final goal of increasing the production of a desired metabolite. This method can provide a list of desirable engineering targets that can be combined with current ML pipelines. FluxRETAP captured 100% of reaction targets experimentally verified to improve Escherichia coli isoprenol production, 50% of targets that experimentally improved taxadiene production in E. coli and ∼60% of genetic targets from a verified minimal constrained cut-set in Pseudomonas putida, while providing additional high priority targets that could be tested. Overall, FluxRETAP is an efficient algorithm for identifying a prioritized list of testable genetic and reaction targets. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: FluxRETAP is implemented in python and released under the creative commons license. The implementation and code are freely available at: https://github.com/JBEI/FluxRETAP.
Systems in which many data sources are multiplexed over a single communication channel are considered. Data from all the sources are generated in fixed-length packets, and are stored in a common buffer with finite capacity. Packets overflowed or removed from the buffer prior to transmission are lost. The system performance measure is the set of packet loss probabilities associated with the sources. Queueing disciplines vary depending on the stringency of prioritization and the utilization of system resources. The set of all possible performances is characterized as the set of all queueing disciplines is spanned. Whether a given performance is possible can be deduced. Strategies that achieve the minimum overall loss probability are identified. The extreme disciplines are specified, and their performances are calculable by means of a given algorithm.
Systems in which many data sources are multiplexed over a single communication channel are considered. Data from all the sources are generated in fixed-length packets and are stored in a common buffer with finite capacity. Packets that overflowed or were removed from the buffer prior to transmission are lost. The system performance measure is the set of packet loss probabilities associated with the sources. Queueing disciplines vary depending on the stringency of prioritization and the utilization of the system resources. The set of all possible performances is characterized as the set of all queueing disciplines is spanned. Whether a given performance is possible can be deduced. Strategies that achieve the minimum overall loss probability are identified. The extreme disciplines are specified, and their performances are calculable by means of a given algorithm.
The applicability of a real-time information prioritization technique to the development of a decision support system for control and automation of Space Station operations is considered. The steps involved in the technique are described, including the definition of abnormal scenarios and of attributes, measures of individual attributes, formulation and optimization of a cost function, simulation of test cases on the basis of the cost function, and examination of the simulation scenerios. A list is given comparing the intrinsic importances of various Space Station information data.
The Manipulator Emulator Testbed (MET) is to provide a facility capable of hosting the simulation of various manipulator configurations to support concept studies, evaluation, and other engineering development activities. Specifically, the testbed is intended to support development of the Space Station Remote Manipulator System (SSRMS) and related systems. The objective of this study is to evaluate the math models developed for the MET simulation of a manipulator's rigid body dynamics and the servo systems for each of the driven manipulator joints. Specifically, the math models are examined with regard to their amenability to pipeline and parallel processing. Based on this evaluation and the project objectives, a set of prioritized recommendations are offered for future work.
The authors present a singularity-robust task-prioritized reformulation of the configuration control for redundant robot manipulators. This reformation suppresses large joint velocities to induce minimal errors in the task performance by modifying the task trajectories. Furthermore, the same framework provides a means for assignment of priorities between the basic task of end-effector motion and the user-defined additional task for utilizing redundancy. This allows automatic relaxation of the additional task constraints in favor of the desired end-effector motion when both cannot be achieved exactly.
This project served to define an appropriate methodology for effective prioritization of technology efforts required to develop replacement technologies mandated by imposed and forecast legislation. The methodology used is a semiquantitative approach derived from quality function deployment techniques (QFD Matrix). This methodology aims to weight the full environmental, cost, safety, reliability, and programmatic implications of replacement technology development to allow appropriate identification of viable candidates and programmatic alternatives. The results will be implemented as a guideline for consideration for current NASA propulsion systems.
This project serves to define an appropriate methodology for effective prioritization of efforts required to develop replacement technologies mandated by imposed and forecast legislation. The methodology used is a semiquantitative approach derived from quality function deployment techniques (QFD Matrix). This methodology aims to weigh the full environmental, cost, safety, reliability, and programmatic implications of replacement technology development to allow appropriate identification of viable candidates and programmatic alternatives. The results are being implemented as a guideline for consideration for current NASA propulsion systems.
The paper describes an experiment whose objectives were to: (1) make initial inferences about categories into which pilots place information; and (2) empirically determine how pilots mentally represent flight deck information, and how their cognitive processes of categorization and prioritization act upon those representations.
This methodology serves to define a system for effective prioritization of efforts required to develop replacement technologies mandated by imposed and forecast legislation. The methodology used is a semi quantitative approach derived from quality function deployment techniques (QFD Matrix). QFD is a conceptual map that provides a method of transforming customer wants and needs into quantitative engineering terms. This methodology aims to weight the full environmental, cost, safety, reliability, and programmatic implications of replacement technology development to allow appropriate identification of viable candidates and programmatic alternatives.