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PQML: Enabling the Predictive Reproducibility on NISQ Machines for Quantum ML Applications

Quantum computing represents a groundbreaking approach to high-performance computing. In recent years, quantum computers have progressed from single-qubit processors to systems boasting over 400 qubits. The presence of such a large number of qubits offers significant advantages, including enhanced computational speed—a capability beyond classical computing methods. However, the current stage of quantum computing is referred to as the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era. The existence of noise in this era presents challenges in testing quantum computing applications, leading to considerable variance in application results. Furthermore, the diverse noise characteristics observed across different machines exacerbate this issue, complicating the selection of the appropriate machine for application execution. In response to these challenges, we introduce our Predictive Quantum Machine Learning (PQML) tool. This tool is designed to predict outcomes when executing identical quantum machine learning applications—specifically, a critical suite of variational quantum algorithms—across various quantum computers during the NISQ era. This effort relies on data collected over a 12-month period. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first attempt to ensure reproducibility across quantum computers for complex circuits. Additionally, we have developed a model capable of forecasting the accuracy of quantum computers for variational quantum algorithms, with a particular emphasis on quantum machine learning as a case study.

Senapati, Priyabrata [Kent State University]

Application of an airfoil stall flutter computer prediction program to a three-dimensional wing: Prediction versus experiment

An aerodynamic computer code, capable of predicting unsteady and C sub m values for an airfoil undergoing dynamic stall, is used to predict the amplitudes and frequencies of a wing undergoing torsional stall flutter. The code, developed at United Technologies Research Corporation (UTRC), is an empirical prediction method designed to yield unsteady values of normal force and moment, given the airfoil's static coefficient characteristics and the unsteady aerodynamic values, alpha, A and B. In this experiment, conducted in the PSU 4' x 5' subsonic wind tunnel, the wing's elastic axis, torsional spring constant and initial angle of attack are varied, and the oscillation amplitudes and frequencies of the wing, while undergoing torsional stall flutter, are recorded. These experimental values show only fair comparisons with the predicted responses. Predictions tend to be good at low velocities and rather poor at higher velocities.

Muffoletto, A. J.

Limits on the prediction of helicopter rotor noise using thickness and loading sources: Validation of helicopter noise prediction techniques

The techniques of helicopter rotor noise prediction attempt to describe precisely the details of the noise field and remove the empiricisms and restrictions inherent in previous methods. These techniques require detailed inputs of the rotor geometry, operating conditions, and blade surface pressure distribution. The Farassat noise prediction techniques was studied, and high speed helicopter noise prediction using more detailed representations of the thickness and loading noise sources was investigated. These predictions were based on the measured blade surface pressures on an AH-1G rotor and compared to the measured sound field. Although refinements in the representation of the thickness and loading noise sources improve the calculation, there are still discrepancies between the measured and predicted sound field. Analysis of the blade surface pressure data indicates shocks on the blades, which are probably responsible for these discrepancies.

Succi, G. P.

Predictability of time averages. I - Dynamical predictability of monthly means. II - The influence of the boundary forcings

The physical basis for the dynamic prediction of monthly means in weather parameters is examined in two papers. In the first paper, an attempt is made to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed nonfluctuating external forcings. In the second paper, the physical mechanisms through which changes in the boundary forcings of SST, soil moisture, albedo, and snow influence atmospheric circulation are discussed. On the basis of both studies, the essential requirements for establishing the physical basis for dynamical prediction of monthly means are to show that: (1) fluctuations of monthly means are larger than can be expected due to sampling of day-to-day weather changes; (2) there are low frequency planetary scale components of circulation which remain predictable beyond the limits of synoptic scale predictability; and (3) the influences of the slowly varying boundary conditions of SST, soil moisture, snow, sea ice are large enough to produce significant and detectable changes in the monthly mean circulations. Observational and numerical evidence which support these requirements are presented.

Shukla, J.

Prediction of forces and moments for flight vehicle control effectors. Part 1: Validation of methods for predicting hypersonic vehicle controls forces and moments

Many types of hypersonic aircraft configurations are currently being studied for feasibility of future development. Since the control of the hypersonic configurations throughout the speed range has a major impact on acceptable designs, it must be considered in the conceptual design stage. The ability of the aerodynamic analysis methods contained in an industry standard conceptual design system, APAS II, to estimate the forces and moments generated through control surface deflections from low subsonic to high hypersonic speeds is considered. Predicted control forces and moments generated by various control effectors are compared with previously published wind tunnel and flight test data for three configurations: the North American X-15, the Space Shuttle Orbiter, and a hypersonic research airplane concept. Qualitative summaries of the results are given for each longitudinal force and moment and each control derivative in the various speed ranges. Results show that all predictions of longitudinal stability and control derivatives are acceptable for use at the conceptual design stage. Results for most lateral/directional control derivatives are acceptable for conceptual design purposes; however, predictions at supersonic Mach numbers for the change in yawing moment due to aileron deflection and the change in rolling moment due to rudder deflection are found to be unacceptable. Including shielding effects in the analysis is shown to have little effect on lift and pitching moment predictions while improving drag predictions.

Maughmer, Mark D.

Simulating boundary layer transition with low-Reynolds-number k-epsilon turbulence models. I - An evaluation of prediction characteristics. II - An approach to improving the predictions

The capability of two k-epsilon low-Reynolds number (LRN) turbulence models, those of Jones and Launder (1972) and Lam and Bremhorst (1981), to predict transition in external boundary-layer flows subject to free-stream turbulence is analyzed. Both models correctly predict the basic qualitative aspects of boundary-layer transition with free stream turbulence, but for calculations started at low values of certain defined Reynolds numbers, the transition is generally predicted at unrealistically early locations. Also, the methods predict transition lengths significantly shorter than those found experimentally. An approach to overcoming these deficiencies without abandoning the basic LRN k-epsilon framework is developed. This approach limits the production term in the turbulent kinetic energy equation and is based on a simple stability criterion. It is correlated to the free-stream turbulence value. The modification is shown to improve the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the transition predictions.

Schmidt, R. C.

The effects of history and predictive information on the ability of the transport aircraft pilot to predict an alert

The early detection of a developing aircraft-subsystem fault has the potential to lessen its ultimate severity. The lack of capability for such early detection is becoming critical in the aviation community. In the commercial sector, for example, twin-engine aircraft are being used for extended transport operations over water. One method to decrease the severity of a developing problem is to predict its behavior and to take appropriate corrective action. In order to investigate pilots' ability to predict events, an experiment was conducted where eighteen airline pilots predicted the time to an alert using three different displays of dials and three different time profile complexities. The three displays of dials were as follows: standard, resembling current aircraft dial presentations; history, indicating the value five seconds in the past; and predictive, indicating the value five seconds into the future. The time profiles describing the behavior of the parameter consisted of constant velocity profiles, decelerating profiles, and accelerating then decelerating profiles. Although pilots indicated that they preferred the predictive dial, the objective data did not support its use. The objective data did show that the time profiles had the most significant effect on performance in estimating the time to an alert.

Trujillo, Anna C.

Effects of historical and predictive information on ability of transport pilot to predict an alert

In the aviation community, the early detection of the development of a possible subsystem problem during a flight is potentially useful for increasing the safety of the flight. Commercial airlines are currently using twin-engine aircraft for extended transport operations over water, and the early detection of a possible problem might increase the flight crew's options for safely landing the aircraft. One method for decreasing the severity of a developing problem is to predict the behavior of the problem so that appropriate corrective actions can be taken. To investigate the pilots' ability to predict long-term events, a computer workstation experiment was conducted in which 18 airline pilots predicted the alert time (the time to an alert) using 3 different dial displays and 3 different parameter behavior complexity levels. The three dial displays were as follows: standard (resembling current aircraft round dial presentations); history (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec in the past); and predictive (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec into the future). The time profiles describing the behavior of the parameter consisted of constant rate-of-change profiles, decelerating profiles, and accelerating-then-decelerating profiles. Although the pilots indicated that they preferred the near term predictive dial, the objective data did not support its use. The objective data did show that the time profiles had the most significant effect on performance in estimating the time to an alert.

Trujillo, Anna C.

Generalized Predictive and Neural Generalized Predictive Control of Aerospace Systems

The research work presented in this thesis addresses the problem of robust control of uncertain linear and nonlinear systems using Neural network-based Generalized Predictive Control (NGPC) methodology. A brief overview of predictive control and its comparison with Linear Quadratic (LQ) control is given to emphasize advantages and drawbacks of predictive control methods. It is shown that the Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) methodology overcomes the drawbacks associated with traditional LQ control as well as conventional predictive control methods. It is shown that in spite of the model-based nature of GPC it has good robustness properties being special case of receding horizon control. The conditions for choosing tuning parameters for GPC to ensure closed-loop stability are derived. A neural network-based GPC architecture is proposed for the control of linear and nonlinear uncertain systems. A methodology to account for parametric uncertainty in the system is proposed using on-line training capability of multi-layer neural network. Several simulation examples and results from real-time experiments are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.

Kelkar, Atul G.

FLAPS (Fatigue Life Analysis Programs): Computer Programs to Predict Cyclic Life Using the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning and Other Life Prediction Methods

This manual presents computer programs FLAPS for characterizing and predicting fatigue and creep-fatigue resistance of metallic materials in the high-temperature, long-life regime for isothermal and nonisothermal fatigue. The programs use the Total Strain version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP), and several other life prediction methods described in this manual. The user should be thoroughly familiar with the TS-SRP and these life prediction methods before attempting to use any of these programs. Improper understanding can lead to incorrect use of the method and erroneous life predictions. An extensive database has also been developed in a parallel effort. The database is probably the largest source of high-temperature, creep-fatigue test data available in the public domain and can be used with other life-prediction methods as well. This users' manual, software, and database are all in the public domain and can be obtained by contacting the author. The Compact Disk (CD) accompanying this manual contains an executable file for the FLAPS program, two datasets required for the example problems in the manual, and the creep-fatigue data in a format compatible with these programs.

Arya, Vinod K.

Electronic clinical predictive thermometer using logarithm for temperature prediction

A thermometer that rapidly predicts body temperature based on the temperature signals received from a temperature sensing probe when it comes into contact with the body. The logarithms of the differences between the temperature signals in a selected time frame are determined. A line is fit through the logarithms and the slope of the line is used as a system time constant in predicting the final temperature of the body. The time constant in conjunction with predetermined additional constants are used to compute the predicted temperature. Data quality in the time frame is monitored and if unacceptable, a different time frame of temperature signals is selected for use in prediction. The processor switches to a monitor mode if data quality over a limited number of time frames is unacceptable. Determining the start time on which the measurement time frame for prediction is based is performed by summing the second derivatives of temperature signals over time frames. When the sum of second derivatives in a particular time frame exceeds a threshold, the start time is established.

Cambridge, Vivien J.

Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.

model structure uncertainty

HydraGNN_Predictive_GFM_2024 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for ground state atomistic materials modeling

We provide the ensemble of fifteen pre-trained graph foundation models (GFMs) for atomistic materials modeling applications. Each one of the fifteen GFMs has been trained on five open-source datasets that (once aggregated) amount to over 154 million atomistic structures, which cover over two-thirds of the natural elements of the periodic table and that comprises a broad set of organic and inorganic compounds. This vast set of atomistic structures comprises ground state configurations that are dynamically stable (i.e., equilibrated structures with atomic forces approximately close to zero values) as well as dynamically unstable structures (i.e., non-equilibrium structures with non-negligible non-zero values of atomic forces). The ensemble of datasets aggregated does NOT include excited states. The datasets have been curated to remove atomistic structures with spectral norm of the force tensor above 100 eV/angstrom. Moreover, a linear term of the energy was computed for each dataset using a linear regression model that uses the chemical concentration of each natural element as regressor. The linear term predicted by the linear regression model has been subtracted from each original energy value to perform a re-alignment of the energy values across different electronic structures approximation theories performed to generate the diverse multi-source, multi-fidelity datasets. The folder "ADIOS_files" contains the set of pre-processed datasets in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used for the development and training of GFMs in this work. The "ADIOS_files" directory contains 6 sub-directories named as follows: - ANI1x-v3.bp - MPTrj-v3.bp - OC2020-20M-v3.bp - OC2020-v3.bp - OC2022-v3.bp - qm7x-v3.bp Each sub-directory contains the pre-processed datasets converted in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used to the development, training, and performance testing of the ensemble go predictive graph foundation models. Each GFM was developed using HydraGNN (https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN) as underlying graph neural network (GNN) architecture. The multi-task learning (MTL) capability of HydraGNN was used to simultaneously train the GFMs on labeled values for direct predictions of energy (a total system property of an atomistic structure that measures the chemical stability) and atomic forces (an atomic level property of an atomistic structure that measures the dynamical stability). The hyper parameters of the GFM have been tuned using scalable hyperparameter optimization (HPO) algorithms implemented in the software DeepHyper (https://github.com/deephyper/deephyper). The pre-training of each HPO trial was performed using distributed data parallelism (DDP) to scale the training across 128 compute nodes of the exascale OLCF supercomputer Frontier. Each HPO trial was trained only for 10 epochs and an early stopping was performed to avoid wasting significant computational resources on GNN architectures that were clearly underperforming. For each HPO trial, the 'omnistat' tool developed by (AMD Research - Advanced Micro Device) was used to measure the total energy consumption in kWh. The ensemble of GFMs was obtained by selecting the fifteen best performing HPO trials. Four models have been selected for their clear advantage in accuracy, and these are the GFMs with IDs 229, 156, 147, 260. Additional eleven models have been selected based on judicious balance between accuracy and energy consumption needed for training, and these are the GFMs with IDs 165, 78, 137, 1, 175, 171, 181, 67, 179, 167, 351. Each selected GFM of the ensemble was continued to cumulate a total of at most 30 epochs. In some cases, the total number of epochs actually performed was les than 30 due to two combined factors: (1) the size of the GFM (i.e., the number of model parameters to train) and (2) the total wall-clock time for which the computational resources could be allocated on OLCF-Frontier. The "Ensemble_of_models" directory contains 15 sub-directories named as follows: - gfm_0.229 - gfm_0.156 - gfm_0.147 - gfm_0.260 - gfm_0.165 - gfm_0.78 - gfm_0.137 - gfm_0.1 - gfm_0.175 - gfm_0.171 - gfm_0.181 - gfm_0.67 - gfm_0.179 - gfm_0.167 - gfm_0.351 Each one of these sub-directories refers to one of the fifteen HPO trials that have been selected to continue the pre-training with at most 30 epochs. With each sub-directory associated with a specific HPO trial, the following files can be found: - config.json: file for argument parsing to develop and train an HydraGNN architecture - gfm_0.ID_epoch_N.pk: file with model parameters for HPO ID trial after N epochs of training The ensemble of fifteen GFM architectures was used for (1) ensemble averaging to stabilize the predictions of energy and atomic forces after pre-training for post-processing analysis and (2) ensemble uncertainty quantification (UQ). The code used to develop, pre-train, and load the pre-trained models for post-processing analysis is available on the ORNL-GitHub at the following link: https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/tree/Predictive_GFM_2024

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

HydraGNN_OPF_GFM_2026 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for power grid applications

This dataset supports research on graph foundation models for optimal power flow (OPF) on electric grids using HydraGNN. It contains heterogeneous graph representations of PGLib-OPF cases spanning systems from 14 to 13,659 buses, together with packed HDF5 datasets for pretraining, feasibility classification, and N-1 contingency analysis. The release includes OPF solution data, downstream fine-tuning datasets, pretrained HeteroSAGE and HeteroHEAT model checkpoints, hyperparameter-optimization summaries across multiple heterogeneous GNN architectures, and aggregated fine-tuning results for sample-efficiency studies. The dataset is designed to enable scalable training, evaluation, and transfer-learning studies for OPF surrogate modeling, including node-level AC-OPF solution prediction, graph-level prediction, feasibility classification, operating-condition generalization, and contingency-response tasks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Shuttle program. Solar activity prediction of sunspot numbers, predicted solar radio flux

A solar activity prediction technique for monthly mean sunspot numbers over a period of approximately ten years from February 1979 to January 1989 is presented. This includes the predicted maximum epoch of solar cycle 21, approximately January 1980, and the predicted minimum epoch of solar cycle 22, approximately March 1987. Additionally, the solar radio flux 10.7 centimeter smooth values are included for the same time frame using a smooth 13 month empirical relationship. The incentive for predicting solar activity values is the requirement of solar flux data as input to upper atmosphere density models utilized in mission planning satellite orbital lifetime studies.

Johnson, G. G.

Statistical prediction of dynamic distortion of inlet flow using minimum dynamic measurement. An application to the Melick statistical method and inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction without RMS measurements

The Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is outlined. A hypothetic vortex model is used as the basis for the mathematical formulations. The main variables are identified by matching the theoretical total pressure rms ratio with the measured total pressure rms ratio. Data comparisons, using the HiMAT inlet test data set, indicate satisfactory prediction of the dynamic peak distortion for cases with boundary layer control device vortex generators. A method for the dynamic probe selection was developed. Validity of the probe selection criteria is demonstrated by comparing the reduced-probe predictions with the 40-probe predictions. It is indicated that the the number of dynamic probes can be reduced to as few as two and still retain good accuracy.

Schweikhard, W. G.

A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 1: Theoretical development and application to yearly predictions for selected cities in the United States

A rain attenuation prediction model is described for use in calculating satellite communication link availability for any specific location in the world that is characterized by an extended record of rainfall. Such a formalism is necessary for the accurate assessment of such availability predictions in the case of the small user-terminal concept of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The model employs the theory of extreme value statistics to generate the necessary statistical rainrate parameters from rain data in the form compiled by the National Weather Service. These location dependent rain statistics are then applied to a rain attenuation model to obtain a yearly prediction of the occurrence of attenuation on any satellite link at that location. The predictions of this model are compared to those of the Crane Two-Component Rain Model and some empirical data and found to be very good. The model is then used to calculate rain attenuation statistics at 59 locations in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) for the 20 GHz downlinks and 30 GHz uplinks of the proposed ACTS system. The flexibility of this modeling formalism is such that it allows a complete and unified treatment of the temporal aspects of rain attenuation that leads to the design of an optimum stochastic power control algorithm, the purpose of which is to efficiently counter such rain fades on a satellite link.

Manning, Robert M.

Aircraft noise prediction program theoretical manual: Rotorcraft System Noise Prediction System (ROTONET), part 4

This document describes the theoretical methods used in the rotorcraft noise prediction system (ROTONET), which is a part of the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP). The ANOPP code consists of an executive, database manager, and prediction modules for jet engine, propeller, and rotor noise. The ROTONET subsystem contains modules for the prediction of rotor airloads and performance with momentum theory and prescribed wake aerodynamics, rotor tone noise with compact chordwise and full-surface solutions to the Ffowcs-Williams-Hawkings equations, semiempirical airfoil broadband noise, and turbulence ingestion broadband noise. Flight dynamics, atmosphere propagation, and noise metric calculations are covered in NASA TM-83199, Parts 1, 2, and 3.

Weir, Donald S.