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Results for “power modeling and estimation”

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NASA NTRS2003

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, sigma(sub 2), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index sigma(sub 2) greater than sigma(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter sigma(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (Pl) consistency (asymptotically unbiased), (P2) efficiency (asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only be ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum- detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However, the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are stained in practice are investigated.

Howell, L. W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Spectroscopic Study of Solar Transition Region Oscillations in the Quiet-Sun Observed By IRIS Using the Si IV Spectral Line

In this paper, we use the Si IV 1393.755 Å spectral line observed by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) in the quiet-Sun (QS) to determine the physical nature of the solar transition region (TR) oscillations. We analyse the properties of these oscillations using wavelet tools (e.g. power, cross-power, coherence, and phase difference) along with the stringent noise model (i.e. power law + constant). We estimate the period of the intensity and Doppler velocity oscillations at each chosen location in the QS and quantify the distribution of the statistically significant power and associated periods in one bright region and two dark regions. In the bright TR region, the mean periods in intensity and velocity are 7 min and 8 min, respectively. In the dark regions, the mean periods in intensity and velocity are 7 min and 5.4 min, respectively. We also estimate the phase difference between the intensity and Doppler velocity oscillations at each location. The statistical distribution of the phase difference is estimated, which peaks at −119° ± 13°, 33° ± 10°, 102° ± 10° in the bright region and at −153° ± 13°, 6° ± 20°, 151° ± 10° in the dark regions. The statistical distribution reveals that the oscillations are caused by propagating slow magneto-acoustic waves encountered with the TR. Some of these locations may also be associated with standing slow waves. Moreover, in the given time domain, several locations exhibit the presence of both propagating and standing oscillations at different frequencies.

MHD – Sun: oscillations↗

NASA NTRS2007

System Modeling of Lunar Oxygen Production: Mass and Power Requirements

A systems analysis tool for estimating the mass and power requirements for a lunar oxygen production facility is introduced. The individual modeling components involve the chemical processing and cryogenic storage subsystems needed to process a beneficiated regolith stream into liquid oxygen via ilmenite reduction. The power can be supplied from one of six different fission reactor-converter systems. A baseline system analysis, capable of producing 15 metric tons of oxygen per annum, is presented. The influence of reactor-converter choice was seen to have a small but measurable impact on the system configuration and performance. Finally, the mission concept of operations can have a substantial impact upon individual component size and power requirements.

Steffen, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Washington, D.C. & Maryland Energy: Estimating Solar Potential Using NASA POWER Data to Inform Renewable Energy Policy for Washington, D.C.

In line with the Sustainable D.C. 2.0 plan to combat climate change, Washington D.C. aims to decrease its greenhouse gas emissions by 100% by 2050. As solar energy is a clean, renewable energy form, its integration into the region’s power grids lowers energy costs and incentivizes sustainable development. We partnered with the Washington D.C. Department of Energy & Environment (DOEE) to determine how urban areas surrounding D.C. can better be incorporated into decisions regarding renewable energy policy. The team used NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) solar data and a Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) derived digital surface model, to estimate and visualize rooftop solar potential for Maryland’s Prince George’s and Montgomery counties. POWER provided solar irradiance data adjusted for tilt angle while the digital surface model contributed aspect and slope data. This methodology factored out areas that were unsuitable for solar panel installation while displaying areas that possess a high potential for energy return. The team found the total rooftop solar potential for the study area to be almost 32 million kW, which is equivalent to roughly 660 kW per building. The methodology used to generate the solar potential maps can be applied to other regions of the country seeking to efficiently utilize solar energy. The end users at the DOEE can use our resulting solar potential map and data table to effectively target buildings that have the highest potential to generate solar energy.

Edward Cronin↗

NASA NTRS2011

Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) Model Development: Final Report

Power management and distribution (PMAD) models were developed in the early 1990's to model candidate architectures for various Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) missions. They were used to generate "ballpark" component mass estimates to support conceptual PMAD system design studies. The initial set of models was provided to NASA Lewis Research Center (since renamed Glenn Research Center) in 1992. They were developed to estimate the characteristics of power conditioning components predicted to be available in the 2005 timeframe. Early 90's component and device designs and material technologies were projected forward to the 2005 timeframe, and algorithms reflecting those design and material improvements were incorporated into the models to generate mass, volume, and efficiency estimates for circa 2005 components. The models are about ten years old now and NASA GRC requested a review of them to determine if they should be updated to bring them into agreement with current performance projections or to incorporate unforeseen design or technology advances. This report documents the results of this review and the updated power conditioning models and new transmission line models generated to estimate post 2005 PMAD system masses and sizes. This effort continues the expansion and enhancement of a library of PMAD models developed to allow system designers to assess future power system architectures and distribution techniques quickly and consistently.

Metcalf, Kenneth J.↗

NASA NTRS1985

How many Earth-approaching asteroids are there?

The discovery process of Earth-approaching asteroids is formulated as a periodic sampling problem from an urn with replacement. It presumes as unchanging number of such objects over recent historical times, a fixed limiting magnitude/angular speed combination for detection probability, and allows for the possibility of the lack of detection or the lack of sufficient observations to refine an orbit at the first noticed apparition. While simple, the model is sufficiently powerful to show that an estimate of the number of Earth-approaching minor planets is impossible. This conclusion is insensitive to uncertainties in perturbing influences, celestial mechanics, or a model for the distribution of the orbital element sets of these minor planets.

Taff, L. G.↗

NASA NTRS1986

How many earth-approaching asteroids are there?

The discovery process of earth-approaching asteroids is formulated as a periodic sampling problem from an urn with replacement. It presumes as unchanging number of such objects over recent historical times, a fixed limiting magnitude/angular speed combination for detection probability, and allows for the possibility of the lack of detection or the lack of sufficient observations to refine an orbit at the first noticed apparition. While simple, the model is sufficiently powerful to show that an estimate of the number of earth-approaching minor planets is impossible. This conclusion is insensitive to uncertainties in perturbing influences, celestial mechanics, or a model for the distribution of the orbital element sets of these minor planets.

Taff, L. G.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Circuit transients due to negative bias arcs on a high-voltage solar array in low Earth orbit

Arcing to negatively biased, exposed solar cell interconnects on solar arrays placed in plasma environments was established. Arcing, however, may cause damaging interference with the operation of electrical power systems in spacecraft planned to be driven with high-voltage solar arrays. An analytical model was developed to estimate the effects of netagive bias arcs on solar array power system performance. Solar cell characteristics, plasma interactions, and power system features are modeled by a linear, lumped element transient circuit, and the time domain equations are solved. Numerical results for solar array common mode and load voltage transients are calculated for typical conditions. Acceptable load transients are found for a range of arc current amplitudes and time constants.

Metz, R. N.↗

NASA NTRS1994

On determining the spectrum of primordial inhomogeneity from the COBE DMR sky maps: Results of two-year data analysis

A new technique of Fourier analysis on a cut sky has been applied to the two-year Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Differential Microwave Radiometer (DMR) 53 and 90 GHz sky maps. The Bayesian power spectrum estimation results are consistent with the Harrison-Zel'dovich n = 1 model. The maximum likelihood estimates of the usual parameters defining the power spectrum of primordial perturbations are n = 1.22 (1.02) and Q(sub rms-PS) = 17 (20) microK including (excluding) the quadrupole. A spectral-index-independent normalization is naturally expressed for the two-year maps in terms of the multipole amplitude a(sub 9) = 8.2 (8.3) microK (to approximately 12 sigma significance). The marginal likelihood function on n obtained by intergration with respect to a(sub 9) renders n = 1.17 +/- 0.31 (0.96 +/- 0.36).

Gorski, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Modeling SMAP Spacecraft Attitude Control Estimation Error Using Signal Generation Model

Two ground simulation software are used to model the SMAP spacecraft dynamics. The CAST software uses a higher fidelity model than the ADAMS software. The ADAMS software models the spacecraft plant, controller and actuator models, and assumes a perfect sensor and estimator model. In this simulation study, the spacecraft dynamics results from the ADAMS software are used as CAST software is unavailable. The main source of spacecraft dynamics error in the higher fidelity CAST software is due to the estimation error. A signal generation model is developed to capture the effect of this estimation error in the overall spacecraft dynamics. Then, this signal generation model is included in the ADAMS software spacecraft dynamics estimate such that the results are similar to CAST. This signal generation model has similar characteristics mean, variance and power spectral density as the true CAST estimation error. In this way, ADAMS software can still be used while capturing the higher fidelity spacecraft dynamics modeling from CAST software.

Soil Moisture Active Passive↗

NASA NTRS1978

Three-dimensional effects on pure tone fan noise due to inflow distortion

Two dimensional, quasi three dimensional and three dimensional theories for the prediction of pure tone fan noise due to the interaction of inflow distortion with a subsonic annular blade row were studied with the aid of an unsteady three dimensional lifting surface theory. The effects of compact and noncompact source distributions on pure tone fan noise in an annular cascade were investigated. Numerical results show that the strip theory and quasi three-dimensional theory are reasonably adequate for fan noise prediction. The quasi three-dimensional method is more accurate for acoustic power and model structure prediction with an acoustic power estimation error of about plus or minus 2db.

Kobayashi, H.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Spectroscopic Study of Solar Transition Region Oscillations in the Quiet-Sun Observed By IRIS Using Si IV Spectral Line

In the present paper, we use Si IV 1393.755 Å spectral line observed by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS) in the quiet-Sun to determine physical nature of the solar transition region (TR) oscillations. We analyze the properties of these oscillations using wavelet tools (e.g., power, cross-power, coherence, and phase difference) along with the stringent noise model (i.e., power-law + constant). We estimate the period of the intensity and Doppler velocity oscillations at each chosen location in the quiet-Sun (QS) and quantify the distribution of the statistically significant power and associated periods in one bright and two dark regions. In the bright TR region, the mean periods in intensity and velocity are 7 min, and 8 min respectively. In the dark region, the mean periods in intensity and velocity are 7 min, and 5.4 min respectively. We also estimate the phase difference between the intensity and Doppler velocity oscillations at each location. The statistical distribution of phase difference is estimated, which peaks at -119°± 13°, 33°± 10°, 102°± 10° in the bright region, while at -153°± 13°, 6°± 20°, 151°± 10° in the dark region. The statistical distribution reveals that the oscillations are caused by propagating slow magnetoacoustic waves encountered with the TR. Some of these locations may also be associated with the standing slow waves. Even, in the given time domain, several locations exhibit presence of both propagating and standing oscillations at different frequencies.

Sun: oscillations↗

NASA NTRS1973

Thermal control of the solar electric propulsion stage

The thermal control requirements consist of functional requirements related to the various mission phase natural environments, operational requirements of induced power loadings by the solar electric propulsion stage subsystems, and design temperature limits for performance and reliability. The design approach utilizes passive thermal control techniques combining insulation, surface coatings, and sunshields with thermostatically controlled louvers. Heaters are used to regulate certain temperatures for extreme conditions. Details regarding the thruster array thermal control design are discussed, giving attention to the parameters used in the mathematical model, questions of conductive coupling, and thruster estimated power distribution.

Ruttner, L. E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Lunar PMAD technology assessment

This report documents an initial set of power conditioning models created to generate 'ballpark' power management and distribution (PMAD) component mass and size estimates. It contains converter, rectifier, inverter, transformer, remote bus isolator (RBI), and remote power controller (RPC) models. These models allow certain studies to be performed; however, additional models are required to assess a full range of PMAD alternatives. The intent is to eventually form a library of PMAD models that will allow system designers to evaluate various power system architectures and distribution techniques quickly and consistently. The models in this report are designed primarily for space exploration initiative (SEI) missions requiring continuous power and supporting manned operations. The mass estimates were developed by identifying the stages in a component and obtaining mass breakdowns for these stages from near term electronic hardware elements. Technology advances were then incorporated to generate hardware masses consistent with the 2000 to 2010 time period. The mass of a complete component is computed by algorithms that calculate the masses of the component stages, control and monitoring, enclosure, and thermal management subsystem.

Metcalf, Kenneth J.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Use of Satellite-Measured Aerosol Optical Depth to Constrain Biomass Burning Emissions Source Strength in a Global Model GOCART

Small particles in the atmosphere, called "atmospheric aerosol" have a direct effect on Earth climate through scattering and absorbing sunlight, and also an indirect effect by changing the properties of clouds, as they interact with solar radiation as well. Aerosol typically stays in the atmosphere for several days, and can be transported long distances, affecting air quality, visibility, and human health not only near the source, but also far downwind. Smoke from vegetation fires is one of the main sources of atmospheric aerosol; other sources include anthropogenic pollution, dust, and sea salt. Chemistry transport models (CTMs) are among the major tools for studying the atmospheric and climate effects of aerosol. Due to the considerable variation of aerosol concentrations and properties on many temporal and spatial scales, and the complexity of the processes involved, the uncertainties in aerosol effects on climate are large, as is featured in the latest report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. Reducing this uncertainty in the models is very important both for predicting future climate scenarios and for regional air quality forecasting and mitigation. During vegetation fires, also called biomass burning (BB) events, complex mixture of gases and particles is emitted. The amount of BB emissions is usually estimated taking into account the intensity and size of the fire and the properties of burning vegetation. These estimates are input into CTMs to simulate BB aerosol. Unfortunately, due to large variability of fire and vegetation properties, the quantity of BB emissions is very difficult to estimate and BB emission inventories provide numbers that can differ by up to the order of magnitude in some regions. Larger uncertainties in data input make uncertainties in model output larger as well. A powerful way to narrow the range of possible model estimates is to compare model output to observations. We use satellite observations of aerosol properties, specifically aerosol optical depth, which is directly proportional to the amount of aerosol in the atmosphere, and compare it to the model output. Assuming the model represents aerosol transport and particle properties correctly, the amount of BB emissions determines the simulated aerosol optical depth. In this study, we explore the regional performance of 13 commonly used emission estimates. These are each input to global Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. We then evaluate how well each emission estimate reproduces the smoke aerosol optical depth measured by the MODIS instrument. We compared GOCART-simulate aerosol optical depth with that measured from the satellite for 124 fire cases around the world during 2006 and 2007. We summarize the regional performance of each emission inventory and discuss reasons for their differences by considering the assumptions made during their development. We also show that because stronger wind disperses smoke plumes more readily, in cases with stronger wind, a larger increase in emission amount is needed to increase aerosol optical depth. In quiet, low-wind-speed environments, BB emissions produce a more significant increase in aerosol optical depth, other things being equal. Using the region-specific, quantitative relationships derived in our paper, together with the wind speed obtained from another source for a given fire case, we can constrain the amount of emission required in the model to reproduce the observations. The results of this paper are useful to the developers of BB emission inventories, as they show the strengths and weaknesses of individual emission inventories in different regions of the globe, and also for modelers who use these inventories and wish to improve their model results.

Petrenko, Mariya↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Helioseismic Measurements of Convective Power in Solar Cycle 24

Constraining the parameters under which convection in the solar interior operates has important implications for describing how energy is transported by plasma motions, and various physical models have been employed to provide some theoretical estimates on the expected power spectrum. Past attempts to measure the convective power distributed among large spatial scales have, however, found differing and incompatible values. Here, we present measurements of the convective power spectrum in the upper convection zone for Carrington rotations in Solar Cycle 24 obtained from the helioseismic signal corresponding to East-West flows. We also perform calibration on synthetic data using the global acoustic GALE code to make assessments of the flow velocities at various length scales without the need for performing inversions. This allows us to derive the convective power spectrum from the flow maps and to compare with the results from the raw travel times. These results are compared against predictions of convective power in global models of convection produced by the EULAG code. Finally, we show how the steps in our analysis procedure (for example data segmentation, filtering, etc.) affect our estimates of the convective power by comparing with the synthetic data from the GALE code.

Heliophysics↗

NASA NTRS2000

A Recommended Procedure for Estimating the Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameter of a Simple Power Law

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index a(f(sub i)) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GQ proton flux at energies below 1013 eV. Two procedures for estimating a(f(sub i)), referred as (1) the method of moments, and (2) maximum likelihood, are developed and their statistical performance compared. I concluded that the maximum likelihood procedure attains the most desirable statistical properties and is hence the recommended statistic estimation procedure for estimating a1. The maximum likelihood procedure is then generalized for application to a set of real cosmic ray data and thereby makes this approach applicable to existing cosmic ray data sets. Several other important results, such as the relationship between collecting power and detector energy resolution, as well as inclusion of a non-Gaussian detector response function, are presented. These results have many practical benefits in the design phase of a cosmic ray detector because they permit instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of one of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, Leonard W.↗

NASA NTRS1987

RSMASS: A simple model for estimating reactor/shield masses

A comparison was completed of the reactor/shield masses obtained from detailed calculations by the proposers of space power reactors. This comparison included a variety of liquid metal cooled, gas cooled and thermionic reactors. An initial goal for agreement between RSMASS (reactor/shield mass model) calculated masses and the masses obtained from detailed calculations was chosen to be a factor of 2. The preliminary comparison demonstrated that the reactor/shield masses estimated by RSMASS agree with the masses obtained from detailed calculations within 50 percent. It can be concluded that RSMASS can provide good estimates of reactor/shield masses for a broad variety of reactor concepts proposed for MMW space power applications. RSMASS is being used to compare the masses of various reactor types and is providing some insights into the mass advantages and disadvantages for the various concepts as a function of operating conditions and reactor or shield parameters. Some mass estimates obtained with RSMASS are presented.

Marshall, Albert C.↗