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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Geometry versus growth: Internal consistency of the flat ΛCDM model with KiDS-1000

Here, we carry out a multi-probe self-consistency test of the flat Lambda Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) model with the aim of exploring potential causes of the reported tensions between high- and low-redshift cosmological observations. We divide the model into two theory regimes determined by the smooth background (geometry) and the evolution of matter density fluctuations (growth), each governed by an independent set of ΛCDM cosmological parameters. This extended model is constrained by a combination of weak gravitational lensing measurements from the Kilo-Degree Survey, galaxy clustering signatures extracted from Sloan Digital Sky Survey campaigns and the Six-Degree Field Galaxy Survey, and the angular baryon acoustic scale and the primordial scalar fluctuation power spectrum measured in Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. For both the weak lensing data set individually and the combined probes, we find strong consistency between the geometry and growth parameters, as well as with the posterior of standard ΛCDM analysis. In the non-split analysis, for which one single set of parameters was used, tension in the amplitude of matter density fluctuations as measured by the parameter S 8 persists at around 3σ, with a 1.5% constraint of S 8 = 0.776$_{–0.008}^{+0.016}$ for the combined probes. We also observe a less significant preference (at least 2σ) for higher values of the Hubble constant, H 0 = 70.5$_{–1.5}^{+0.7}$ km s –1 Mpc –1 , as well as for lower values of the total matter density parameter Ω m = 0.289$_{–0.005}^{+0.007}$ compared to the full Planck analysis. Including the subset of the CMB information in the probe combination enhances these differences rather than alleviate them, which we link to the discrepancy between low and high multipoles in Planck data. Our geometry versus growth analysis does not yet yield clear signs regarding whether the origin of the discrepancies lies in ΛCDM structure growth or expansion history but holds promise as an insightful test for forthcoming, more powerful data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

3D Multiresolution Velocity Model Fusion with Probability Graphical Models

ABSTRACT The variability in spatial resolution of seismic velocity models obtained via tomographic methodologies is attributed to many factors, including inversion strategies, ray-path coverage, and data integrity. Integration of such models, with distinct resolutions, is crucial during the refinement of community models, thereby enhancing the precision of ground-motion simulations. Toward this goal, we introduce the probability graphical model (PGM), combining velocity models with heterogeneous resolutions and nonuniform data point distributions. The PGM integrates data relations across varying resolution subdomains, enhancing detail within low-resolution (LR) domains by utilizing information and prior knowledge from high-resolution (HR) subdomains through a maximum posterior problem. Assessment of efficacy, utilizing both 2D and 3D velocity models—consisting of synthetic checkerboard models and a fault-zone model from Ridgecrest, California—demonstrates noteworthy improvements in accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art fusion techniques. Specifically, we find reductions of 30% and 44% in computed travel-time residuals for 2D and 3D models, respectively, as compared to conventional smoothing techniques. Unlike conventional methods, the PGM’s adaptive weight selection facilitates preserving and learning details from complex, nonuniform HR models and applies the enhancements to the LR background domain.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistically-informed deep learning for gravitational wave parameter estimation

We introduce deep learning models to estimate the masses of the binary components of black hole mergers, $(m_1,m_2)$, and three astrophysical properties of the post-merger compact remnant, namely, the final spin, $a_\mathrm f$, and the frequency and damping time of the ringdown oscillations of the fundamental $\ell = m = 2$ bar mode, $(\omega_\mathrm R, \omega_\mathrm I)$. Our neural networks combine a modified WaveNet architecture with contrastive learning and normalizing flow. We validate these models against a Gaussian conjugate prior family whose posterior distribution is described by a closed analytical expression. Upon confirming that our models produce statistically consistent results, we used them to estimate the astrophysical parameters $(m_1,m_2, a_\mathrm f, \omega_\mathrm R, \omega_\mathrm I)$ of five binary black holes: GW150914, GW170104, GW170814, GW190521 and GW190630. We use PyCBC Inference to directly compare traditional Bayesian methodologies for parameter estimation with our deep learning based posterior distributions. Our results show that our neural network models predict posterior distributions that encode physical correlations, and that our data-driven median results and 90% confidence intervals are similar to those produced with gravitational wave Bayesian analyses. This methodology requires a single V100 NVIDIA GPU to produce median values and posterior distributions within two milliseconds for each event. Furthermore, this neural network, and a tutorial for its use, are available at the Data and Learning Hub for Science.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Residual-based error correction for neural operator accelerated infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems

We explore using neural operators, or neural network representations of nonlinear maps between function spaces, to accelerate infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs) with models governed by nonlinear parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). Neural operators have gained significant attention in recent years for their ability to approximate the parameter-to-solution maps defined by PDEs using as training data solutions of PDEs at a limited number of parameter samples. The computational cost of BIPs can be drastically reduced if the large number of PDE solves required for posterior characterization are replaced with evaluations of trained neural operators. However, reducing error in the resulting BIP solutions via reducing the approximation error of the neural operators in training can be challenging and unreliable. We provide an a priori error bound result that implies certain BIPs can be ill-conditioned to the approximation error of neural operators, thus leading to inaccessible accuracy requirements in training. To reliably deploy neural operators in BIPs, we consider a strategy for enhancing the performance of neural operators: correcting the prediction of a trained neural operator by solving a linear variational problem based on the PDE residual. We show that a trained neural operator with error correction can achieve a quadratic reduction of its approximation error, all while retaining substantial computational speedups of posterior sampling when models are governed by highly nonlinear PDEs. The strategy is applied to two numerical examples of BIPs based on a nonlinear reaction–diffusion problem and deformation of hyperelastic materials. We demonstrate that posterior representations of the two BIPs produced using trained neural operators are greatly and consistently enhanced by error correction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Persistent Sampling: Enhancing the Efficiency of Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers are powerful tools for Bayesian inference but suffer from high computational costs due to their reliance on large particle ensembles for accurate estimates. We introduce persistent sampling (PS), an extension of SMC that systematically retains and reuses particles from all prior iterations to construct a growing, weighted ensemble. By leveraging multiple importance sampling and resampling from a mixture of historical distributions, PS mitigates the need for excessively large particle counts, directly addressing key limitations of SMC such as particle impoverishment and mode collapse. Crucially, PS achieves this without additional likelihood evaluations-weights for persistent particles are computed using cached likelihood values. This framework not only yields more accurate posterior approximations but also produces marginal likelihood estimates with significantly lower variance, enhancing reliability in model comparison. Furthermore, the persistent ensemble enables efficient adaptation of transition kernels by leveraging a larger, decorrelated particle pool. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian mixtures, hierarchical models, and non-convex targets demonstrate that PS consistently outperforms standard SMC and related variants, including recycled and waste-free SMC, achieving substantial reductions in mean squared error for posterior expectations and evidence estimates, all at reduced computational cost. PS thus establishes itself as a robust, scalable, and efficient alternative for complex Bayesian inference tasks.

Karamanis, Minas↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multimodality in the Search for New Physics in Pulsar Timing Data and the Case of Kination-amplified Gravitational-wave Background from Inflation

We investigate the kination-amplified inflationary gravitational-wave background (GWB) interpretation of the signal recently reported by various pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments. Kination is a post-inflationary phase in the expansion history dominated by the kinetic energy of some scalar field, characterized by a stiff equation of state w = 1. Within the inflationary GWB model, we identify two modes that can fit the current data sets (NANOGrav and EPTA) with equal likelihood: the kination-amplification (KA) mode and the ordinary, no-kination-amplification (no-KA) mode. The multimodality of the likelihood motivates a Bayesian analysis with nested sampling. We analyze the free spectra of current PTA data and mock free spectra constructed with higher signal-to-noise ratios using nested sampling. The analysis of the mock spectrum designed to be consistent with the best fit to the NANOGrav 15 yr (NG15) data successfully reveals the expected bimodal posterior for the first time while excluding the reheating mode that appears in the fit to the current NG15 data, making a case for our correct and comprehensive treatment of potential multimodal posteriors arising from future PTA data sets. The resultant Bayes factor is $\mathcal{B}$ $\equiv$ Z no–KA /Z KA = 2.9 ± 1.9, indicating comparable statistical significance between the two modes. Given the theoretical model-building challenges of producing highly blue-tilted primordial tensor spectra, the KA mode has the advantage of requiring less blue primordial spectra, compared with the no-KA mode. The synergy between future cosmic microwave background polarization, pulsar timing, and laser interferometer measurements of gravitational waves will help resolve the ambiguity implied by the multimodal posterior in PTA-only searches.

Cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Updated Visual Orbit of the Directly Imaged Exoplanet 51 Eridani b and Prospects for a Dynamical Mass Measurement with Gaia

We present a revision to the visual orbit of the young, directly imaged exoplanet 51 Eridani b using four years of observations with the Gemini Planet Imager. The relative astrometry is consistent with an eccentric (e=0.53{sub -0.13}{sup +0.09}) orbit at an intermediate inclination (i=136{sub -11}{sup +10} °), although circular orbits cannot be excluded due to the complex shape of the multidimensional posterior distribution. We find a semimajor axis of 11.1{sub -1.3}{sup +4.2} au and a period of 28.1{sub -4.9}{sup +17.2} yr, assuming a mass of 1.75 M{sub ⊙} for the host star. We find consistent values with a recent analysis of VLT/SPHERE data covering a similar baseline. We investigate the potential of using the absolute astrometry of the host star to obtain a dynamical mass constraint for the planet. The astrometric acceleration of 51 Eri derived from a comparison of the Hipparcos and Gaia catalogs was found to be inconsistent at the 2σ–3σ level with the predicted reflex motion induced by the orbiting planet. Potential sources of this inconsistency include a combination of random and systematic errors between the two astrometric catalogs and the signature of an additional companion within the system interior to current detection limits. We also explored the potential of using Gaia astrometry alone for a dynamical mass measurement of the planet by simulating Gaia measurements of the motion of the photocenter of the system over the course of the extended 8 yr mission. We find that such a measurement is only possible (>98% probability) given the most optimistic predictions for the Gaia scan astrometric uncertainties for bright stars and a high mass for the planet (≳3.6 M {sub Jup}).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying uncertainties and correlations in the nuclear-matter equation of state

We perform statistically rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) for chiral effective field theory (χ EFT) applied to infinite nuclear matter up to twice nuclear saturation density. The equation of state (EOS) is based on high-order many-body perturbation theory calculations with nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon interactions up to fourth order in the χ EFT expansion. From these calculations our newly developed Bayesian machine-learning approach extracts the size and smoothness properties of the correlated EFT truncation error. Furthermore, we then propose a novel extension that uses multitask machine learning to reveal correlations between the EOS at different proton fractions. The inferred in-medium χ EFT breakdown scale in pure neutron matter and symmetric nuclear matter is consistent with that from free-space nucleon-nucleon scattering. These significant advances allow us to provide posterior distributions for the nuclear saturation point and propagate theoretical uncertainties to derived quantities: the pressure and incompressibility of symmetric nuclear matter, the nuclear symmetry energy, and its derivative. Our results, which are validated by statistical diagnostics, demonstrate that an understanding of truncation-error correlations between different densities and different observables is crucial for reliable UQ. The methods developed here are publicly available as annotated Jupyter notebooks.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Cosmology from cosmic shear two-point correlation functions

Here, we perform a blinded cosmology analysis with cosmic shear two-point correlation functions measured from more than 25 million galaxies in the Hyper Suprime-Cam three-year shear catalog in four tomographic redshift bins ranging from 0.3 to 1.5. After conservative masking and galaxy selection, the survey covers 416 deg 2 of the northern sky with an effective galaxy number density of 15 arcmin –2 over the four redshift bins. The 2PCFs adopted for cosmology analysis are measured in the angular range; 7.1 <θ/arcmin < 56.6 for ξ + and 31.2 < θ/arcmin < 248 for ξ – , with a total signal-to-noise ratio of 26.6. We apply a conservative, wide, flat prior on the photometric redshift errors on the last two tomographic bins, and the relative magnitudes of the cosmic shear amplitude across four redshift bins allow us to calibrate the photometric redshift errors. With this flat prior on redshift errors, we find Ω m = 0.25⁢6$^{+0.056}_{–0.044}$ and S 8 ≡ σ 8 ⁢$\sqrt{Ω_{m}/0.3}$ = 0.76⁢9$^{+0.031}_{–0.034}$ (both 68% C.I.) for a flat Λ cold dark matter cosmology. We find, after unblinding, that our constraint on S 8 is consistent with the Fourier space cosmic shear and the 3 × 2 pt analyses on the same HSC dataset. We carefully study the potential systematics from astrophysical and systematic model uncertainties in our fiducial analysis using synthetic data, and report no biases (including projection bias in the posterior space) greater than 0.5σ in the estimation of S 8 . Our analysis hints that the mean redshifts of the two highest tomographic bins are higher than initially estimated. In addition, a number of consistency tests are conducted to assess the robustness of our analysis. Comparing our result with Planck-2018 cosmic microwave background observations, we find a ~2σ tension for the Λ ⁢CDM model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A flexible event reconstruction based on machine learning and likelihood principles

Event reconstruction is a central step in many particle physics experiments, turning detector observables into parameter estimates; for example estimating the energy of an interaction given the sensor readout of a detector. A corresponding likelihood function is often intractable, and approximations need to be constructed. Here, in our work, we first show how the full likelihood for a many-sensor detector can be broken apart into smaller terms, and secondly how we can train neural networks to approximate all terms solely based on forward simulation. Our technique results in a fast, flexible, and close-to-optimal surrogate model proportional to the likelihood and can be used in conjunction with standard inference techniques allowing for a consistent treatment of uncertainties. We illustrate our technique for parameter inference in neutrino telescopes based on maximum likelihood and Bayesian posterior sampling. Given its great flexibility, we also showcase our method for geometry optimization enabling to learn optimal detector designs. Lastly, we apply our method to realistic simulation of a ton-scale water-based liquid scintillator detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improved limits on the tensor-to-scalar ratio using BICEP and P l a n c k data

In this study, we present constraints on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r using a combination of BICEP/Keck 2018 (BK18) and Planck PR4 data allowing us to fit for r consistently with the six parameters of the Λ CDM model. We discuss the sensitivity of constraints on r to uncertainties in the Λ CDM parameters as defined by the Planck data. In particular, we are able to derive a constraint on the reionization optical depth τ and thus propagate its uncertainty into the posterior distribution for r . While Planck sensitivity to r is slightly lower than the current ground-based measurements, the combination of Planck with BK18 and baryon-acoustic-oscillation data yields results consistent with r = 0 and tightens the constraint to r < 0.032 at 95% confidence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Standard Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant Using Gravitational-wave Events from the First Three LIGO/Virgo Observing Runs and the DESI Legacy Survey

We present a new constraint on the Hubble constant H 0 using a sample of well-localized gravitational-wave (GW) events detected during the first three LIGO/Virgo observing runs as dark standard sirens. In the case of dark standard sirens, a unique host galaxy is not identified, and the redshift information comes from the distribution of potential host galaxies. From the third LIGO/Virgo observing run detections, we add the asymmetric-mass binary black hole GW190412 and the high-confidence GW candidates S191204r, S200129m, and S200311bg to the sample of dark standard sirens analyzed in Palmese et al. Our sample contains the top 20% (based on localization) GW events and candidates to date with significant coverage by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Legacy Survey. We combine the H 0 posterior for eight dark siren events, finding H 0 = $79.8^{+19.1}_{-12.8}$ km s -1 Mpc -1 (68% highest density interval) for a prior in H 0 uniform between [20, 140] km s -1 Mpc -1 . This result shows that a combination of eight well-localized dark sirens combined with an appropriate galaxy catalog is able to provide an H 0 constraint that is competitive (~20% versus 18% precision) with a single bright standard siren analysis (i.e., assuming the electromagnetic counterpart) using GW170817. When combining the posterior with that from GW170817, we obtain H 0 = $72.77^{+11.0}_{-7.55}$ km s -1 Mpc -1 . This result is broadly consistent with recent H 0 estimates from both the cosmic microwave background and supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sequential Monte Carlo for Cut-Bayesian Posterior Computation

We propose a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method to efficiently and accurately compute cut-Bayesian posterior quantities of interest, variations of standard Bayesian approaches constructed primarily to account for model misspecification. We prove finite sample concentration bounds for estimators derived from the proposed method along with a linear tempering extension and apply these results to a realistic setting where a computer model is misspecified. We then illustrate the SMC method for inference in a modular chemical reactor example that includes submodels for reaction kinetics, turbulence, mass transfer, and diffusion. The samples obtained are commensurate with a direct-sampling approach that consists of running multiple Markov chains, with computational efficiency gains using the SMC method. Overall, the SMC method presented yields a novel, rigorous approach to computing with cut-Bayesian posterior distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep inference of simulated strong lenses in ground-based surveys

The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future astronomical surveys will likely enhance the value of strong gravitational lensing as a cosmic probe of dark energy and dark matter. However, leveraging the increased statistical power of such large samples will require further development of automated lens modeling techniques. We show that deep learning and simulation-based inference (SBI) methods produce informative and reliable estimates of parameter posteriors for strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys. We present the examination and comparison of two approaches to lens parameter estimation for strong galaxy-galaxy lenses — Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs). We perform inference on 1-, 5-, and 12-parameter lens models for ground-based imaging data that mimics the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that NPE outperforms BNNs, producing posterior distributions that are more accurate, precise, and well-calibrated for most parameters. For the 12-parameter NPE model, the calibration is consistently within <10% of optimal calibration for all parameters, while the BNN is rarely within 20% of optimal calibration for any of the parameters. Similarly, residuals for most of the parameters are smaller (by up to an order of magnitude) with the NPE model than the BNN model. This work takes important steps in the systematic comparison of methods for different levels of model complexity.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Tutorial on Bayesian analysis of linear shock compression data

Gas gun and other shock compression experiments often produce shock wave velocity measurements that are linearly associated with particle velocity. Traditionally, this empirical relationship is quantified with a single Hugoniot curve that is estimated using least squares regression. However, for downstream modeling and simulation tasks, it is often more useful to have multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the data. We employ Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods as a framework for propagating measurement uncertainty through to model parameters and predictions. Specifically, this Tutorial shows how to sample multiple Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane that are consistent with the shock wave-particle velocity measurements in a two-step Bayesian approach. First, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution of the linear model parameters using Bayesian linear regression. Second, we propagate samples from the posterior distribution through the Rankine–Hugoniot equations to yield Hugoniot curves in the pressure–volume plane. The procedure is demonstrated with publicly available data on argon, copper, and nickel, and compared against bootstrapping and linear regression. The Bayesian procedure is shown to be interpretable, computationally inexpensive, and less sensitive than an alternative bootstrapping approach to the removal of the point in the copper dataset that has the largest particle velocity. As a Tutorial on Bayesian methodology for the shock compression community, we provide several derivations and explanations that make this paper self-contained, and make all code and data available at github.com/llnl/BALSCD.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank approximation of Hessians in inverse problems, with application to ice sheet model initialization

Obtaining lightweight and accurate approximations of discretized objective functional Hessians in inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) is essential to make both deterministic and Bayesian statistical large-scale inverse problems computationally tractable. The cubic computational complexity of dense linear algebraic tasks, such as Cholesky factorization, that provide a means to sample Gaussian distributions and determine solutions of Newton linear systems is a computational bottleneck at large-scale. These tasks can be reduced to log-linear complexity by utilizing hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank (HODLR) matrix approximations. In this work, we show that a class of Hessians that arise from inverse problems governed by PDEs are well approximated by the HODLR matrix format. In particular, we study inverse problems governed by PDEs that model the instantaneous viscous flow of ice sheets. In these problems, we seek a spatially distributed basal sliding parameter field such that the flow predicted by the ice sheet model is consistent with ice sheet surface velocity observations. Here, we demonstrate the use of HODLR Hessian approximation to efficiently sample the Laplace approximation of the posterior distribution with covariance further approximated by HODLR matrix compression. Computational studies are performed which illustrate ice sheet problem regimes for which the Gauss–Newton data-misfit Hessian is more efficiently approximated by the HODLR matrix format than the low-rank (LR) format. We then demonstrate that HODLR approximations can be favorable, when compared to global LR approximations, for large-scale problems by studying the data-misfit Hessian associated with inverse problems governed by the first-order Stokes flow model on the Humboldt glacier and Greenland ice sheet.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Lens Model Accuracy in the Expected LSST Lensed AGN Sample

Strong gravitational lensing of active galactic nuclei (AGN) enables measurements of cosmological parameters through time-delay cosmography (TDC). With data from the upcoming LSST survey, we anticipate using a sample of O(1000) lensed AGN for TDC. To prepare for this dataset and enable this measurement, we construct and analyze a realistic mock sample of 1300 systems drawn from the OM10 (Oguri & Marshall 2010) catalog of simulated lenses with AGN sources at $z<3.1$ in order to test a key aspect of the analysis pipeline, that of the lens modeling. We realize the lenses as power law elliptical mass distributions and simulate 5-year LSST i-band coadd images. From every image, we infer the lens mass model parameters using neural posterior estimation (NPE). Focusing on the key model parameters, $θ_E$ (the Einstein Radius) and $γ_{lens}$ (the projected mass density profile slope), with consistent mass-light ellipticity correlations in test and training data, we recover $θ_E$ with less than 1% bias per lens, 6.5% precision per lens and $γ_{lens}$ with less than 3% bias per lens, 8% precision per lens. We find that lens light subtraction prior to modeling is only useful when applied to data sampled from the training prior. If emulated deconvolution is applied to the data prior to modeling, precision improves across all parameters by a factor of 2. Finally, we combine the inferred lens mass models using Bayesian Hierarchical Inference to recover the global properties of the lens sample with less than 1% bias.

Venkatraman, Padmavathi [Illinois U., Urbana; KIPA↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systematic Bayesian evaluation of resonance parameters in 19 Ne for the 15 O ⁡(𝛼, 𝛾)⁢ 19 Ne and 18 F ⁡(𝑝, 𝛼)⁢ 15 O reactions

Here, we present a comprehensive evaluation of the nuclear structure properties of 19 Ne using a novel and rigorous Bayesian statistical framework. Precise characterization of 19 Ne resonance parameters is critical for accurately determining reaction rates of the astrophysically significant 15 O ⁡(𝛼, 𝛾)⁢ 19 Ne and 18 F ⁡(𝑝, 𝛼)⁢ 15 O reactions, which govern breakout from the hot CNO cycle in x-ray bursts and influence 𝛾-ray emission in novae, respectively. By reconstructing likelihood functions from published experimental data—including asymmetric uncertainties and upper or lower limits—we derive posterior distributions for resonance energies, decay widths, and branching ratios. Our Bayesian approach systematically incorporates previously reported discrepancies among measurements, providing a statistically robust and consistent treatment of these uncertainties. The evaluated resonance parameters and associated uncertainties provide crucial input for stellar nucleosynthesis modeling, contributing to a refined understanding of explosive astrophysical phenomena.

Kim, Sohyun H. [Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon (Republi↗