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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic Permafrost Thawing Enhances Sulfide Oxidation

Permafrost degradation is altering biogeochemical processes throughout the Arctic. Thaw-induced changes in organic matter transformations and mineral weathering reactions are impacting fluxes of inorganic carbon (IC) and alkalinity (ALK) in Arctic rivers. However, the net impact of these changing fluxes on the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (pCO 2 ) is relatively unconstrained. Resolving this uncertainty is important as thaw-driven changes in the fluxes of IC and ALK could produce feedbacks in the global carbon cycle. Enhanced production of sulfuric acid through sulfide oxidation is particularly poorly quantified despite its potential to remove ALK from the ocean-atmosphere system and increase pCO 2 , producing a positive feedback leading to more warming and permafrost degradation. In this work, we quantified weathering in the Koyukuk River, a major tributary of the Yukon River draining discontinuous permafrost in central Alaska, based on water and sediment samples collected near the village of Huslia in summer 2018. Using measurements of major ion abundances and sulfate (SO 4 2- ) sulfur ( 34 S/ 32 S) and oxygen ( 18 O/ 16 O) isotope ratios, we employed the MEANDIR inversion model to quantify the relative importance of a suite of weathering processes and their net impact on pCO 2 . Calculations found that approximately 80% of SO 4 2- in mainstem samples derived from sulfide oxidation with the remainder from evaporite dissolution. Moreover, 34 S/ 32 S ratios, 13 C/ 12 C ratios of dissolved IC, and sulfur X-ray absorption spectra of mainstem, secondary channel, and floodplain pore fluid and sediment samples revealed modest degrees of microbial sulfate reduction within the floodplain. Weathering fluxes of ALK and IC result in lower values of pCO 2 over timescales shorter than carbonate compensation (~10 4 yr) and, for mainstem samples, higher values of pCO 2 over timescales longer than carbonate compensation but shorter than the residence time of marine (~10 7 yr). Furthermore, the absolute concentrations of and Mg 2+ in the Koyukuk River, as well as the ratios of SO 4 2- and Mg 2+ to other dissolved weathering products, have increased over the past 50 years. Through analogy to similar trends in the Yukon River, we interpret these changes as reflecting enhanced sulfide oxidation due to ongoing exposure of previously frozen sediment and changes in the contributions of shallow and deep flow paths to the active channel. Overall, these findings confirm that sulfide oxidation is a substantial outcome of permafrost degradation and that the sulfur cycle responds to permafrost thaw with a timescale-dependent feedback on warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Forcing & Feedbacks by Fires, Forests, Fossil Energy & Food Production: Observations are Key to Predictions [Slides]

Human emitted GHGs (long lived, cumulative) that trap more heat (IR) and aerosols (short lived, steady) that reflect sunlight (Vis) have altered Earth’s radiation budget and warmed our climate measurably and predictably. Our complex dynamic climate system has trapped 400 ZettaJ (10 21 ) and has many positive feedbacks. Regions are changing at unprecedented rates and crossing thresholds as BAU will lock us into 8.5 W m -2 in 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Very High Efficiency Dedicated Outdoor Air System Field Site Re-Evaluation

The study reported here evaluated the long-term performance of Very High Efficiency (VHE) Dedicated Outside Air Systems (DOASs) installed at eight sites that participated in field evaluation studies performed by the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) and Institute for Market Transformation (IMT) from 2015 through 2020. The study compared the energy performance of the systems in 2021-2022 to the findings of the original evaluation. It also evaluated the indoor environmental quality (IEQ) as perceived by occupants and building operator feedback before and after the system conversion. The findings of the study are important for building owners and managers who are considering adopting VHE DOASs. The study found that the systems: (1) consistently saved energy over the long term, (2) improved occupant comfort, and (3) received positive feedback from building operators. All of the sites had similar or improved energy savings over the pre-conversion system compared to the original evaluation savings, and only one site had a small reduction in energy savings. The sites averaged 48 percent whole site energy savings compared to the pre-conversion system. The continued energy performance of these sites provides strong evidence that the energy savings achieved by VHE DOAS retrofits will be sustained long term. The study also investigated the changes in occupant comfort resulting from the VHE DOAS retrofit. Responses to a survey sent to the sites’ occupants revealed that the conversion resulted in a better indoor environment for the occupants. Most respondents reported that their satisfaction increased, and dissatisfaction decreased post-conversion. Overall occupants were 43 percent more satisfied and 30 percent less dissatisfied post-conversion compared to pre-conversion. The study's findings suggest that a VHE DOAS can be a solution to improve the energy efficiency, reduce energy costs, and increase occupant comfort in buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Contributions From Cloud Morphological Changes to the Interannual Shortwave Cloud Feedback Based on MODIS and ISCCP Satellite Observations

The surface temperature-mediated change in cloud properties, referred to as the cloud feedback, continues to dominate the uncertainty in climate projections. A larger number of contemporary global climate models (GCMs) project a higher degree of warming than the previous generation of GCMs. This greater projected warming has been attributed to a less negative cloud feedback in the Southern Ocean. Here, we apply a novel “double decomposition method” that employs the “cloud radiative kernel” and “cloud regime” concepts, to two data sets of satellite observations to decompose the interannual cloud feedback into contributions arising from changes within and shifts between cloud morphologies. Our results show that contributions from the latter to the cloud feedback are large for certain regimes. We then focus on interpreting how both changes within and between cloud morphologies impact the shortwave cloud optical depth feedback over the Southern Ocean in light of additional observations. Results from the former cloud morphological changes reveal the importance of the wind response to warming increases low- and mid-level cloud optical thickness in the same region. Results from the latter cloud morphological changes reveal that a general shift from thick storm-track clouds to thinner oceanic low-level clouds contributes to a positive feedback over the Southern Ocean that is offset by shifts from thinner broken clouds to thicker mid- and low-level clouds. Our novel analysis can be applied to evaluate GCMs and potentially diagnose shortcomings pertaining to their physical parameterizations of particular cloud morphologies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Star formation efficiency and AGN feedback in narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies with fast X-ray nuclear winds

ABSTRACT We present the first systematic study of the molecular gas and star formation efficiency in a sample of ten narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies selected to have X-ray Ultra Fast Outflows and, therefore, to potentially show AGN feedback effects. CO observations were obtained with the IRAM 30-m telescope in six galaxies and from the literature for four galaxies. We derived the stellar mass, star formation rate, AGN, and FIR dust luminosities by fitting the multi-band spectral energy distributions with the CIGALE code. Most of the galaxies in our sample lie above the main sequence (MS), and the molecular depletion time is one to two orders of magnitude shorter than the one typically measured in local star-forming galaxies. Moreover, we found a promising correlation between the star formation efficiency and the Eddington ratio, as well as a tentative correlation with the AGN luminosity. The role played by the AGN activity in the regulation of star formation within the host galaxies of our sample remains uncertain (little or no effect? positive feedback?). Nevertheless, we can conclude that quenching by the AGN activity is minor and that star formation will likely stop in a short time due to gas exhaustion by the current starburst episode.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microbial abundances and carbon use under ambient temperature or experimental warming in a southern boreal peatland

Abstract Organic peat soils occupy relatively little of the global land surface area but store vast amounts of soil carbon in northern latitudes where climate is warming at a rapid pace. Warming may result in strong positive feedbacks of carbon loss and global climate change driven by microbial processes if warming alters the balance between primary productivity and decomposition. To elucidate effects of warming on the microbial communities mediating peat carbon dynamics, we explored the abundance of broad microbial groups and their source of carbon (i.e. old carbon versus more recently fixed photosynthate) using microbial lipid analysis (δ 13 C PLFA) of peat samples under ambient temperatures and before/after initiation of experimental peat warming (+ 2.25, + 4.5, + 6.75, and + 9 °C). This analysis occurred over a profile to 2 m depth in an undrained, ombrotrophic peat bog in northern Minnesota. We found that the total microbial biomass and individual indicator lipid abundances were stratified by depth and strongly correlated to temperature under ambient conditions. However, under experimental warming, statistically significant effects of temperature on the microbial community were sporadic and inconsistent. For example, 3 months after experimental warming the relative abundance of Gram-negative bacterial indicators across depth combined and > 50 cm depth and Gram-positive bacterial indicators at 20–50 cm depth showed significant positive relationships to temperature. At that same timepoint, however, the relative abundance of Actinobacterial indicators across depth showed a significant negative relationship to temperature. After 10 months of experimental warming, the relative abundance of fungal biomarkers was positively related to temperature in all depths combined, and the absolute abundance of anaerobic bacteria declined with increasing temperature in the 20–50 cm depth interval. The lack of observed response in the broader microbial community may suggest that at least initially, microbial community structure with peat depth in these peatlands is driven more by bulk density and soil water content than temperature. Alternatively, the lack of broad microbial community response may simply represent a lag period, with more change to come in the future. The long-term trajectory of microbial response to warming in this ecosystem then could either be direct, after this initial lag time, or indirect through other physical or biogeochemical changes in the peat profile. These initial results provide an important baseline against which to measure long-term microbial community and carbon-cycling responses to warming and elevated CO 2 .

Felice, Mark↗
DOE OSTI2025

Shot‐Noise‐Driven Macroscopic Vibrations and Displacement Transduction in Quantum Tunnel Junctions

Back‐action is an inevitable result of quantum measurement. Although the microscopic impacts of shot‐noise back‐action have been explored, macroscopic evidence is seldom documented, especially in the field of electrical transport. Tunneling shot‐noise has been shown to excite the fundamental flexural mode of the host crystal using a sub‐GHz lumped‐element radio‐frequency quantum point contact (QPC). Here, in this study, this aspect of shot‐noise back‐action is examined at much higher operational frequencies and wider bandwidths by employing a GaAs QPC integrated into a planar superconducting cavity within the circuit‐QED framework, leading to the observation of the excitation of multiple mechanical modes. The device operates in the shot‐noise‐limited regime. Constructed on a piezoelectric platform, there is positive feedback between the electrical and mechanical degrees of freedom within the QPC. Shot‐noise excites piezoelectric vibrational modes; concurrently the resulting polarization charges enhance tunneling and develop peaks in the shot‐noise spectra at the modal frequencies. The excitation of vibrational modes is a macroscopic demonstration of measurement back‐action, and the amplitudes of the noise‐peaks enable us to calibrate the displacement sensitivity of the QPC‐resonator systems, which is in the range $≈ 35 fm/√ Hz$, making it an excellent sensor for ultra‐sensitive and rapid strain/displacement detection.

Kumbhakar, Prasanta [Indian Institute of Science E↗
DOE OSTI2022

Minerals limit the deep soil respiration response to warming in a tropical Andisol

Tropical regions hold one third of the world’s soil organic carbon, but few experiments have warmed tropical soils in situ. The vulnerability of these soils to climate change-induced losses is uncertain with many hypothesizing these soils would be less sensitive to climate change because already-high temperatures in tropical systems might limit microbial sensitivity or due to increased mineral protection of organic carbon in highly weathered tropical soils. Here we present the results of a deep soil (0–100 cm) warming experiment in a tropical Andisol. Andisols can store large, persistent pools of soil carbon that are protected from decomposition by poorly and non-crystalline minerals (PNCM). In 20 cm depth intervals, we measured key soil properties including carbon, nitrogen, pH, PNCM, bacterial and fungal richness along with temperature, moisture, and CO 2 production. Over a year of soil warming, CO 2 production significantly increased by 50–300% per degree of warming, but only in the top 40 cm of the soil profile in contrast to the results of other deep soil warming experiments. Multimodal analysis supported our hypothesis that high concentrations of PNCM was the primary driver of the lack of CO 2 response, followed by high relative soil moisture and low bacterial richness, which may be a proxy for organic carbon availability. The lack of elevated CO 2 production in response to warming suggests a limited positive feedback to climate change in Andisols driven by their strong mineral protection of organic matter. Therefore, Andisols should be considered high priority restoration or protection areas when considering the management of soil carbon stocks as part of climate action.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Warming but not elevated CO 2 depletes soil organic carbon in a temperate rice paddy

In this article, global climate change has the potential to alter soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in rice paddies, because increases in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO 2 ]) both influence the primary input (i.e., net primary production, NPP) and output (i.e. heterotrophic respiration) of carbon (C). We used two types of open-top chambers representing present conditions (+0°C, +0 ppm CO 2 ) and projected climate change conditions (+2°C, +200 ppm CO 2 ) to investigate the net effect of climate change on SOC stock in rice paddy. Additional chambers with elevated temperature only (+2°C, +0 ppm CO 2 ) allowed us to quantify the individual effects of temperature and [CO 2 ]. We calculated changes in SOC stock using net ecosystem C balance (NECB) analysis (i.e., the balance between C inputs and outputs). Compared to present conditions, projected climate change did not change grain yield due to a trade-off between the effects of warming and [CO 2 ] on grain yield components. NPP during the fallow season significantly decreased under combined warming and CO 2 , as the impact of warming outweighed that of elevated [CO 2 ]. However, rice NPP remained unchanged during the cropping season. Warming plus elevated CO 2 increased SOC mineralization by 157–429 %, particularly through warming-induced soil CO 2 emission during the fallow season. Consequently, climate change conditions decreased (119–271 %) NECB values compared to present conditions, primarily through the response to warming. Our findings demonstrate that rice paddies represent positive feedback on climate change, because accelerated C release from warmed soils will override C gains from NPP under elevated CO 2 . Reducing SOC depletion in rice paddy agriculture under a changing climate therefore requires conservative soil management practices during the fallow season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The role of oak species in long-term soil P loss in a humid river bottomland

There is a gap in our understanding of if and how bottomland forest type will affect long-term nutrient cycling and loss. This study aims to determine how different forests affect soil hydrologic variability and whole-soil P loss in a humid-subtropical setting. Here, we used replicate-sampling and measured soil physical, chemical, and mineralogical properties at 12 sites in two forest ecosystems, post oak (Quercus stellata) and cherry bark oak (Quercus pagoda) in Clarks River National Wildlife Refuge in Western Kentucky. We hypothesize that wetting–drying events in redox soils of forested bottomlands can cause positive feedback in whole-soil P loss. Trees with greater P demand (e.g., post oak) take up more water creating more frequent and pronounced episodes in swelling and shrinking of expandable clays. Repeated swelling and shrinking of clays occlude the surface of Fe-Mn oxides from further adsorption of P in acidic soil. This can lead to greater loss or plant uptake of available P. Our results show (i) a significant difference in mean whole-soil P loss between the oak species with more loss in soils underlying the post oak forest, and (ii) a difference in the total P found in the sap- and heartwood of the two oak species. Soil analysis reveals that the clay mineralogy of the post and cherry bark oak sites are similar, and thus, may only play a minor role in governing the whole-soil P loss difference. However, the leaf data analysis suggests that the post oak site could be P and nitrogen-limited, while the cherry bark is only nitrogen limited. Our study shows that differences in the oak forest ecosystem may affect the long-term balance in water and nutrient uptake and may alter the redistribution of nutrients in the canopy and the underlying soils.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-level Force-dependent Allosteric Enhancement of αE-catenin Binding to F-actin by Vinculin

Classical cadherins are transmembrane proteins whose extracellular domains link neighboring cells, and whose intracellular domains connect to the actin cytoskeleton via β-catenin and α-catenin. The cadherin-catenin complex transmits forces that drive tissue morphogenesis and wound healing. In addition, tension-dependent changes in αE-catenin conformation enables it to recruit the actin-binding protein vinculin to cell-cell junctions, which contributes to junctional strengthening. How and whether multiple cadherin-complexes cooperate to reinforce cell-cell junctions in response to load remains poorly understood. Here, we used single-molecule optical trap measurements to examine how multiple cadherin-catenin complexes interact with F-actin under load, and how this interaction is influenced by the presence of vinculin. We show that force oriented toward the (-) end of the actin filament results in mean lifetimes 3-fold longer than when force was applied towards the barbed (+) end. We also measured force-dependent actin binding by a quaternary complex comprising the cadherin-catenin complex and the vinculin head region, which cannot itself bind actin. Binding lifetimes of this quaternary complex increased as additional complexes bound F-actin, but only when load was oriented toward the (-) end. In contrast, the cadherin-catenin complex alone did not show this form of cooperativity. Furthermore, these findings reveal multi-level, force-dependent regulation that enhances the strength of the association of multiple cadherin/catenin complexes with F-actin, conferring positive feedback that may strengthen the junction and polarize F-actin to facilitate the emergence of higher-order cytoskeletal organization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

In situ feature analysis for large-scale multiphase flow simulations

The study of multiphase flow is essential for designing chemical reactors such as fluidized bed reactors (FBR), as a detailed understanding of hydrodynamics is critical for optimizing reactor performance and stability. An FBR allows scientists to conduct different types of chemical reactions involving multiphase materials, especially interaction between gas and solids. During such complex chemical processes, the formation of void regions in the reactor, generally termed as bubbles, is an important phenomenon. The study of these bubbles has a deep implication in predicting the reactor’s overall efficiency. But physical experiments needed to understand bubble dynamics are costly and non-trivial due to the technical difficulties involved and harsh working conditions of the reactors. Therefore, to study such chemical processes and bubble dynamics, a state-of-the-art computational simulation MFIX-Exa is being developed. Despite the proven accuracy of MFIX-Exa in modeling bubbling phenomena, the large-scale output data prohibits the use of traditional post hoc analysis capabilities in both storage and I/O time. Herein, to address these issues and allow the application scientists to explore the bubble dynamics in an efficient and timely manner, we have developed an end-to-end analytics pipeline that enables in situ detection of bubbles, followed by a flexible post hoc visual exploration methodology of bubble dynamics. The proposed method enables interactive analysis of bubbles, along with quantification of several bubble characteristics, enabling experts to understand the bubble interactions in detail. Positive feedback from the experts has indicated the efficacy of the proposed approach for exploring bubble dynamics in very-large-scale multiphase flow simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Arctic ice-ocean interactions in an 8-to-2 kilometer resolution global model

In the last decades, the Arctic climate has changed dramatically, with the loss of multiyear sea ice one of the clearest consequences. These changes have occurred on relatively rapid timescales, and both accurate short-term Arctic prediction (e.g., 10 days to three months) and climate projection of future Arctic scenarios present ongoing challenges. Here we describe a representation of the Arctic ocean and sea ice in a ultrahigh resolution simulation in which the horizontal grid mesh reduces from 8 km at the equator to 2 km at the poles (UH8to2) for the years 2017-2020. We find the simulation reproduces observed distributions of seasonal sea-ice thickness and concentration realistically, although concentration is biased low in the spring and summer and low biases in thickness are found in the central and eastern basins in the fall. Volume, fresh water, and heat transports through key passages are realistic, lying within observationally determined ranges. Climatological comparisons reveal that the UH8to2 Atlantic Water is shallower, warmer, and saltier than the World Ocean Atlas 2018 climatology for 2005-2017 in the eastern basin. Our analysis suggests that these biases, combined with a lack of stratification in the upper 100 m of the simulated ocean, contribute to the winter biases in modeled sea ice thickness. This relationship between biases in the sea ice and ocean points to a potential positive feedback within the model, illuminating challenges for long term model predictive power in a changing Arctic climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An agent-based modeling tool supporting bioenergy and bio-product community communication regarding cellulosic bioeconomy development

The emergence of the cellulosic bioeconomy requires not only adequate technological, economic, and policy advances, but also effective communication and coordination among the multiple stakeholders in the bioeconomy community. Aiming to facilitate stakeholder communication and collaboration for cellulosic bioeconomy growth, an agent-based model is developed as a community communication tool in this study. The tool simulates the behaviors and interactions of key stakeholders, as well as the responses and interactions between the stakeholders and biophysical, socioeconomic, and environmental conditions. The agent behavior rules are developed and validated based on behavior and economic theories and information attained from a stakeholder focus group study and a land use survey. A pilot study in a Central Illinois watershed shows stakeholder synergies, i.e., positive feedback loops across multiple stakeholders. The modeling tool's role in facilitating community communication is demonstrated via the focus group study. A comparison of policy scenarios suggests that the cellulosic bioeconomy development is fastest under a portfolio of policies combining the views of the multiple stakeholders. Critically, subsidy for small-scale bio-facilities is essential as it rapidly initializes an early market for cellulosic feedstocks and the adoption of Miscanthus. As a result, the communication tool is applied to bringing stakeholders and researchers together to develop shared visions, assess barriers, and explore solution portfolios to initialize and speed up the regional cellulosic bioeconomy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Freshwater Flux Variability Lengthens the Period of the Low-Frequency AMOC Variability

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exhibits interdecadal to multidecadal variability, yet the extent to which the surface freshwater flux (FWF) variability affects the AMOC variability remains unclear. This study isolates the contribution of FWF variability in modulating AMOC through a partially coupled experiment, in which the FWF effect from the atmosphere and sea ice are disabled. It is demonstrated that the FWF effect can remarkably enhance the persistence of positive salinity anomalies in the Labrador Sea, and sustain the dense water formation that was initiated by the cold temperature anomalies. Therefore, the FWF variability serves as a positive feedback on AMOC and lengthens the period of the AMOC oscillation. Further lead-lag regressions of atmospheric and oceanic variables onto the AMOC time series illuminate that the persistent salinity anomalies are generated through two pathways: i) the phase lag between temperature and salinity anomalies in the Labrador Sea; and ii) a downstream propagation of extra high-salinity anomaly along the East Greenland Current, due to the reduced sea ice melting flux associated with an atmosphere forcing over the southern Greenland tip.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Intercomparison of Large‐Eddy Simulations of a Convection Cloud Chamber Using Haze‐Capable Bin and Lagrangian Cloud Microphysics Schemes

Abstract Recent in situ observations show that haze particles exist in a convection cloud chamber. The microphysics schemes previously used for large‐eddy simulations of the cloud chamber could not fully resolve haze particles and the associated processes, including their activation and deactivation. Specifically, cloud droplet activation was modeled based on Twomey‐type parameterizations, wherein cloud droplets were formed when a critical supersaturation for the available cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) was exceeded and haze particles were not explicitly resolved. Here, we develop and adapt haze‐capable bin and Lagrangian microphysics schemes to properly resolve the activation and deactivation processes. Results are compared with the Twomey‐type CCN‐based bin microphysics scheme in which haze particles are not fully resolved. We find that results from the haze‐capable bin microphysics scheme agree well with those from the Lagrangian microphysics scheme. However, both schemes significantly differ from those from a CCN‐based bin microphysics scheme unless CCN recycling is considered. Haze particles from the recycling of deactivated cloud droplets can strongly enhance cloud droplet number concentration due to a positive feedback in haze‐cloud interactions in the cloud chamber. Haze particle size distributions are more realistic when considering solute and curvature effects that enable representing the complete physics of the activation process. Our study suggests that haze particles and their interactions with cloud droplets may have a strong impact on cloud properties when supersaturation fluctuations are comparable to mean supersaturation, as is the case in the cloud chamber and likely is the case in the atmosphere, especially in polluted conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Effect of Indian Ocean Temperature on the Pacific Trade Winds and ENSO

Abstract A notable shift in the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been observed in the early 21st century, characterized by an increased prevalence of Central Pacific (CP) events and strengthened Pacific trade winds. This shift may be attributed to the warming tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). To investigate this, we conduct perturbation experiments using the Insitut Pierre Simon Laplace climate model and nudge TIO surface temperatures to induce warming or cooling effects. Our findings reveal that TIO warming (or cooling) leads to amplified (weakened) mean trade winds and surface warming (cooling) in the Pacific region. Surprisingly, ENSO variability increases in both TIO cooling and warming scenarios. This result is linked to stronger positive feedbacks and a less stable Bjerknes index for either TIO forcing. Additionally, we find that TIO warming leads to more frequent CP events, meridional widening of wind anomalies, and broadening of the ENSO power spectrum toward lower frequencies.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2022

The influence of recent and future climate change on spring Arctic cyclones

In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced rapid atmospheric warming and sea ice loss, with an ice-free Arctic projected by the end of this century. Cyclones are synoptic weather events that transport heat and moisture into the Arctic, and have complex impacts on sea ice, and the local and global climate. However, the effect of a changing climate on Arctic cyclone behavior remains poorly understood. This study uses high resolution (4 km), regional modeling techniques and downscaled global climate reconstructions and projections to examine how recent and future climatic changes alter cyclone behavior. Results suggest that recent climate change has not yet had an appreciable effect on Arctic cyclone characteristics. However, future sea ice loss and increasing surface temperatures drive large increases in the near-surface temperature gradient, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and convection during cyclones. The future climate can alter cyclone trajectories and increase and prolong intensity with greatly augmented wind speeds, temperatures, and precipitation. Such changes in cyclone characteristics could exacerbate sea ice loss and Arctic warming through positive feedbacks. The increasing extreme nature of these weather events has implications for local ecosystems, communities, and socio-economic activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗