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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Increasing temperature weakens the positive effect of genetic diversity on population growth

Abstract Genetic diversity and temperature increases associated with global climate change are known to independently influence population growth and extinction risk. Whether increasing temperature may influence the effect of genetic diversity on population growth, however, is not known. We address this issue in the model protist system Tetrahymena thermophila . We test the hypothesis that at temperatures closer to the species’ thermal optimum (i.e., the temperature at which population growth is maximal, or T opt ), genetic diversity should have a weaker effect on population growth compared to temperatures away from the thermal optimum. To do so, we grew populations of T . thermophila with varying levels of genetic diversity at increasingly warmer temperatures and quantified their intrinsic population growth rate, r . We found that genetic diversity increases population growth at cooler temperatures, but that as temperature increases, this effect weakens. We also show that a combination of changes in the amount of expressed genetic diversity (G) in r , plastic changes in population growth across temperatures (E), and strong G × E interactions underlie this temperature effect. Our results uncover important but largely overlooked temperature effects that have implications for the management of small populations with depauperate genetic stocks in an increasingly warming world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying the Impact of Metal Population Distribution in MFI-Supported Mo Catalysts for Methane Dehydroaromatization

Precise evaluation of intrinsic kinetic behavior in Mo/MFI catalysts for methane dehydroaromatization (MDA) is confounded by variations in Mo dispersion and speciation, which are influenced by metal loading and zeolite acidity. This work advances the utility of H 2 -temperature programmed reduction (H 2 -TPR) for characterizing Mo/MFI catalysts by enabling quantitative comparison of MoO x populations distinguished by reduction behavior and linked to initial catalytic performance. A comprehensive H 2 reduction pathway is established through systematic H 2 - TPR studies varying catalyst composition (1–10 wt % Mo, Si/Al = 15, 40, ∞), supplemented by UV-Raman spectroscopy, X-ray powder diffraction, N 2 physisorption, NH 3 -TPD, and advanced spectroscopic analysis (in situ XAS with principal component analysis/multivariate curve resolution—alternating least squares). Two low-temperature H 2 -TPR regions capture distinct Mo populations undergoing initial Mo(VI)→Mo(IV) reduction: a lower-temperature population (Mo-RI) associated primarily with highly dispersed, anchored MoO x species expected to predominantly reside within MFI channels, and a higher-temperature population (Mo-RII) corresponding to a broader set of MoO x species that becomes increasingly bulk-like/extrazeolitic at higher Mo loading. Quantification of these populations provides practical, kinetically relevant descriptors for comparing initial MDA rates across catalysts with varying Mo loading, Si/Al ratio, and MoO x heterogeneity. Application of lower-temperature Mo-RI estimates to kinetic measurements reveals a minimum threshold of ∼0.12 × 10 –3 mol Mo-RI/g cat , above which initial forward benzene rates normalized to this population converge despite differences in metal loading and zeolite Brønsted acidity. This threshold coincides with a transition toward a common C 2 -mediated benzene-forming regime, as indicated by approach-to-equilibrium analysis of methane-to-ethane, ethane-to-ethylene, and ethylene-to-benzene reaction steps. Above this threshold, normalized initial benzene rates are nearly invariant with increasing Mo-RII/Mo-RI population ratio, indicating that excess Mo-RII populations, including bulk-like/extrazeolitic MoO x domains present at higher loading, do not measurably suppress benzene formation associated with anchored and mostly channel-confined Mo population under the initial-rate conditions examined.

Mo/MFI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Different Spatiotemporal Patterns in Global Human Population and Built‐Up Land

Abstract Population concentration and built‐up land expansion are two prominent features of contemporary urbanization. Existing literature on the population aspect of urbanization has mostly focused on national and regional aggregates, and literature on the land development aspect has often relied on spatial case studies of individual cities or their meta‐analyses. Using newly‐available data, here we conduct the first global‐coverage, spatial analysis of the relationship between (changes in) population and built‐up land at multiple spatial scales, and compare to existing common beliefs about urbanization based on individual city studies. We find that population and built‐up land show distinctly different spatial and temporal patterns (with a global correlation coefficient around 0.6). Contrary to common impressions, our results show that during recent decades, developed and developing regions across the world experienced comparable amounts of built‐up land expansion. While meta‐analyses have reported that built‐up land in urban areas expands globally on average twice as fast as population grows, our results show the global change rates of built‐up land and population are similar. Also, most global population, including what national statistics agencies call urban population, reside in areas with low land development levels (which are frequently less than 5% built up). These changes in perspective suggest that urbanization's potential large‐scale impacts may need to be re‐evaluated, and lead to best‐practice recommendations for urbanization modeling and analysis. Especially, the common practice in large‐scale earth system modeling of assuming demographically‐defined urban population resides in areas with medium to high built‐up land development levels should change.

Gao, Jing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sulfur Geochemistry Destabilizes Population Oscillations of Wild Rice ( Zizania palustris )

Abstract Elevated inputs of sulfate to freshwater systems can increase sulfide concentrations in anoxic soils and subsequently destabilize aquatic plant populations, but the interactions between sulfate, other geochemical cycles, and interannual plant population cycles are poorly understood. Increased sulfate loading increases mineralization of nitrogen from litter, but the sulfide produced during this process can limit nitrogen uptake by plants. In some cases, iron may mitigate sulfide's impacts on plants by precipitating iron sulfide. We examined the interannual effects of sulfate loading on mesocosm populations of wild rice, an emergent aquatic plant that undergoes population oscillations and is sensitive to sulfide. Using experimental mesocosms with self‐perpetuating populations, we investigated how population dynamics respond to manipulations of surface water sulfate (10 mg L −1 or 300 mg L −1 ), sediment iron (4.3 mg g −1 or 10.9 mg g −1 dry weight), and shoot litter (present or removed). Populations exposed to constant 10 mg L −1 sulfate concentrations had stable biomass oscillations of approximately 3‐year periods, consistent with previous studies that demonstrated litter‐driven oscillations in nitrogen availability. Populations exposed to 300 mg L −1 sulfate concentrations produced fewer and smaller seeds and declined to extinction in 6 years or less. We did not find a strong effect of iron loading or litter removal on wild rice biomass or seed production. Our observations show the potential of elevated surface water sulfate to rapidly destabilize wild rice populations under varying iron and organic carbon concentrations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cell Population–resolved Multiomics Atlas of the Developing Lung

The lung is a vital organ that undergoes extensive morphological and functional changes during postnatal development. To disambiguate how different cell populations contribute to organ development, we performed proteomic and transcriptomic analyses of four sorted cell populations from the lung of human subjects aged 0 to 8 years-old with a focus on early life. The cell populations analyzed included epithelial, endothelial, mesenchymal, and immune cells. Our results revealed distinct molecular signatures for each of the sorted cell populations that enable the description of molecular shifts occurring in these populations during post-natal development. Here, we confirmed that the proteome of the different cell populations was distinct regardless of age and identified functions specific to each population. We identified a series of cell population protein markers, including those located at the cell surface, that show differential expression and distribution on RNA in situ hybridization and immunofluorescence imaging. We validated the spatial distribution of AT1 and endothelial cell surface markers. Temporal analyses of the proteome of each of the four populations revealed processes modulated during postnatal development and disambiguating results obtained on whole tissue proteome. Finally, the proteome was compared to a transcriptomics survey performed on the same lung samples to evaluate processes under post-transcriptional control.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Building a framework to genetically characterize “feather spots” and understand demographic impacts of solar energy sites on migratory bird populations

The lack of data on the impact of utility-scale solar facilities on avian species and populations adds to the cost of siting and operation. As much as 32 percent of the avian biological material (feathers and carcasses) recovered from solar facilities remain unidentified, because they often take the form of “feather spots”. Feather spots are remains of impacted animals that can be separated into two broad categories: 1) those remains that may be visually identified to a species, or 2) those that cannot be visually identified to a species due to degradation from the environment and/or scavenger activity (listed as “unknown”). Even when feather spots can be identified to species, they cannot be visually assigned to particular breeding populations. In some cases, it is unknown whether multiple feather spots represent single or multiple individuals. This project’s objectives were to: 1. Use a developed, genetic-based technique to identify and determine the species, population of origin, and number of individuals found in feather spots recovered from solar facilities. 2. Implement collected data and resulting analyses to develop a publicly accessible web-based decision-making tool that can be used by the solar industry, regulators and other stakeholders to inform siting, mitigation, and conservation management efforts. 3. Establish a not-for-profit fee-for-service center at UCLA to ensure collection and identification of feather spots continue after the project period of performance. During the Project Period, we proposed to establish a pipeline for collecting, transporting, and storing of avian biological material collected at solar facilities and the collection and identification of feather spots to species and individual. We proposed the development of a genetic-based framework that would recover viable DNA from feather spots, amplify this DNA (i.e., make millions of copies of the original DNA), and use it to match the resulting sequences to a national database of known species of birds. The result would be the identification of feathers spots that were previously unidentified, and the incorporation of these samples into a larger database that included all samples recovered from solar facilities. The resulting report (below) details the result of this work and its alignment with proposed activities. We proposed the use of the data collected to assess the comparative risk to specific species or populations of species from solar facilities. For some species, we have already identified genomic markers of specific breeding populations and developed “genoscapes,” maps of unique genetic variation across the full breeding range of a species. We used these (previously and newly developed) genoscapes to probabilistically link a feather spot to the specific breeding populations from which it originated (assignment probabilities range from 75%-100% depending on species and population groups). For those species without genoscapes, we developed a vulnerability and susceptibility estimate that determines the relative local and regional risk to populations that are in geographic proximity to solar facilities, using citizen science data (Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and eBird). These two feather spot processing pipelines (see Figure 1 below) provide quantitative estimates as to the numbers of individuals from a given population of origin that are affected by solar facilities, and ultimately can reduce costs to the consumer by reducing the industry costs associated with mitigation and siting strategies for future solar energy development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update: Jamaica After Hurricane Melissa (V1)

During a natural disaster such as Hurricane Melissa, understanding where people are located is critical for situational awareness, operational planning and humanitarian support and consequence assessment. Traditional population datasets focus on mapping populations based on residential, or "business-as-usual" scenarios. However, natural disasters can create disruptions in daily routines of population in addition to the magnitude of the population displacement, depending on the type, duration, context, and location of the event. The Geospatial Science and Human Security Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) produced this latest LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update for Jamaica following Hurricane Melissa, a category 5 hurricane that made landfall on Jamaica on October 28 2025. This Rapid Population Update captures the immediate population displacement following the hurricane using a combination of open-source building damage assessment data from Microsoft, flood exposure data from the Global Flood Monitoring service, reported population displacement information, and humanitarian shelter locations from the Jamaican Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management and the underlying LandScan Mosaic Jamaica as a base population.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2008

Population Simulation, AKA: Grahz, Rahbitz and Fawkzes

In an effort to give students a more visceral experience of science and instill a deeper working knowledge of concepts, activities that utilize hands-on, laboratory and simulated experiences are recommended because these activities have a greater impact on student learning, especially for Native American students. Because it is not usually feasible to take large and/or multiple classes of high school science students into the field to count numbers of organisms of a particular species, especially over a long period of time and covering a large area of an environment, the population simulation presented in this paper was created to aid students in understanding population dynamics by working with a simulated environment, which can be done in the classroom. Students create an environment and populate the environment with imaginary species. Then, using a sequence of "rules" that allow organisms to eat, reproduce, move and age, students see how the population of a species changes over time. In particular, students practice collecting data, summarizing information, plotting graphs, and interpreting graphs for such information as carrying capacity, predator prey relationships, and how specific species factors impact population and the environment. Students draw conclusions from their results and suggest further research, which may involve changes in simulation parameters, prediction of outcomes, and testing predictions. The population Simulation has demonstrated success in the above student activities using a "board game" version of the population simulation. A computer version of the population simulation needs more testing, but preliminary runs are promising. A second - and more complicated - computer simulation will simulate the same things and will add simulated population genetics.

Bangert, Tyler R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Probing the X-Ray Binary Populations of the Ring Galaxy NGC 1291

We present Chandra studies of the X-ray binary (XRB) populations in the bulge and ring regions of the ring galaxy NGC 1291. We detect 169 X-ray point sources in the galaxy, 75 in the bulge and 71 in the ring, utilizing the four available Chandra observations totaling an effective exposure of 179 ks. We report photometric properties of these sources in a point-source catalog. There are approx. 40% of the bulge sources and approx. 25% of the ring sources showing > 3(sigma) long-term variability in their X-ray count rate. The X-ray colors suggest that a significant fraction of the bulge (approx. 75%) and ring (approx. 65%) sources are likely low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs). The spectra of the nuclear source indicate that it is a low-luminosity AGN with moderate obscuration; spectral variability is observed between individual observations. We construct 0.3-8.0 keV X-ray luminosity functions (XLFs) for the bulge and ring XRB populations, taking into account the detection incompleteness and background AGN contamination. We reach 90% completeness limits of approx.1.5 x 10(exp 37) and approx. 2.2 x 10(exp 37) erg/s for the bulge and ring populations, respectively. Both XLFs can be fit with a broken power-law model, and the shapes are consistent with those expected for populations dominated by LMXBs. We perform detailed population synthesis modeling of the XRB populations in NGC 1291 , which suggests that the observed combined XLF is dominated by aD old LMXB population. We compare the bulge and ring XRB populations, and argue that the ring XRBs are associated with a younger stellar population than the bulge sources, based on the relative over-density of X-ray sources in the ring, the generally harder X-ray color of the ring sources, the overabundance of luminous sources in the combined XLF, and the flatter shape of the ring XLF.

Luo, B.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Sustainable Development in Algeria’s Urban Areas: Population Growth and Land Consumption

We analyzed the urban development sustainability in five major urban areas of Algeria by the standard of the UN Sustainability Development Goal indicator SDG 11.3.1, which focuses on the ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate. We utilized the annual global artificial impervious area (GAIA) dataset to characterize land-use and population data from the two censuses carried out by the National Office of Statistics (ONS) for 2008 and 2018. We discuss the prevailing relationship between urban land consumption rate and population growth rate at the smallest territorial and population census unit scale. We confirm that the indicator SDG 11.3.1 is nonlinear and that while, for example, the wilaya of Tlemcen as a whole appears to be on a sustainable path, twenty-one of its communes are not. We found that overall, and for most of its communes, the wilaya of Oran seems to have an urban land use commensurable to its population growth, but in the wilaya of Algiers, out of fifty-seven communes, only fourteen have a tendency towards sustain-able development. However, the latter wilaya hosts the country’s capital and includes government buildings that are uninhabited but are accounted for as land consumed, and as such, the relationship between urban land consumption and population growth is biased. The wilaya of Annaba showed large discrepancies in terms of land use and population growth rates, and the evolution of these quantities is not homogenous across communes and not sustainable. In the Saharan wilaya of Ghardaia, the development is not homogeneous in all communes, with smaller communes undergoing buildup increases of more than 150% over the decade. Finally, in all communes where population growth exceeded urban land growth, there will be overcrowding, an aspect neither the SDG 11.3.1 nor the impervious surface per capita indicator captures. This result, in addition to other limitations, makes SDG 11.3.1 incomplete for the determination of the sustainable development in urban areas.

Algeria↗
DOE OSTI2024

Restoring freshwater habitat mosaics to promote resilience of vulnerable salmon populations

Phenotypic diversity and abundance drive salmon resilience in the face of increasing environmental variability. But what happens when human activities fundamentally alter the habitat complexity that drives this diversity? And how can we restore habitats to recover both diversity and abundance to support salmon persistence in a warming climate? Here, we looked at the impact of a large watershed restoration effort on the abundance and climate resilience of the three remaining core natural spring-run Chinook Salmon populations in the California Central Valley (Butte, Mill, and Deer Creek). Butte Creek fish, which have floodplain access, had higher overall productivity and faster juvenile growth compared with Mill and Deer Creek populations, and the proportion of floodplain inundation was positively correlated with Butte Creek adult abundance two years later. While Butte Creek exhibited significant increases in abundance post-restoration (~2000%), it generally exhibited lower phenotypic diversity and only a marginal increase in population stability after restoration based on the coefficient of variation (CV). In particular, Butte Creek salmon tended to exhibit larger drops in escapement following dry years (e.g., return years 2010, 2017) compared with Mill and Deer Creek populations, presumably due to limited inundation of its downstream floodplain. The late-migrating juvenile strategy (i.e., yearling), which disproportionately supported Mill and Deer Creek populations during droughts, was uncommon among Butte Creek adults (averaging 60% of returns for Mill and Deer Creek vs. 0.3% for Butte Creek). Increased spring-run stock complex stability was found, post-restoration, when combining the three spring-run populations (i.e., lower aggregate CV). However, among-river pairwise correlations also suggested increased synchronization in population abundances post-restoration, potentially due to increasing frequency and severity of extreme climatic events (e.g., droughts and ocean warming). This study underscores the importance of restoring a connected mosaic of aquatic habitats across modified landscapes, such as cold water refugia and floodplains, to preserve multiple (across-population) life history pathways for increasing salmon stock complex stability and abundance. These landscape-scale process-based habitat restoration efforts are likely to be crucial for the successful long-term recovery of vulnerable species in a rapidly changing climate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accumulation of Large Ion Populations with High Ion Densities and Effects Due to Space Charge in Traveling Wave-Based Structures for Lossless Ion Manipulations (SLIM) IMS-MS

The accumulation of very large ion populations in traveling wave (TW)-based Structures for Lossless ion Manipulations (SLIM) has been studied to better understand aspects of ‘in-SLIM’ ion accumulation, and particularly its use in conjunction with ion mobility spectrometry (IMS). A linear SLIM ion path was implemented that had a ‘gate’ for blocking and accumulating ions for arbitrary time periods. Removing the gate potential caused ions to exit and the spatial distributions of accumulated ions were examined. The ion populations for a set of peptides were observed to increase with increased accumulation times until space change effects became significant, after which the peptide precursor ion populations decreased due to growing space charge-related ion activation, reactions, and losses. Ions closest to the gate were preferentially activated, and increasingly so with added storage times, TW amplitude, and the size of the total ion population. For analytical applications, we found that relatively weak TWs in the accumulation/storage region should be utilized to prevent or minimize ion losses and/or ion heating effects that can also lead to fragmentation. Our results further indicate that an accumulation region close to the SLIM entrance is advantageous for both speeding accumulation, minimizing ion heating, and avoiding ion population profiles that result in IMS peak tailing. Importantly, space charge-driven separations were observed for large populations of accumulated species and attributed to the opposing effects of space charge and the TW. In these separations, ion species form distributions or peaks, sometimes moving against the TW, and ordered in the SLIM based on their mobilities. Such separations may offer utility for ion pre-fractionation of ions and increasing the dynamic range measurements, increasing the resolving power of IMS separations by decreasing peak widths for accumulated ion populations, and other purposes benefitting from separations of extremely large ion populations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Population Aging and Heat Exposure in the 21st Century: Which U.S. Regions Are at Greatest Risk and Why?

Abstract Background and Objectives The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure. We estimate county-level variations in older populations’ heat exposure in the early (1995–2014) and mid (2050) 21st century. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. Research Design and Methods We estimate older adults’ heat exposure in 3,109 counties in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Analyses use NASA NEX Global Daily Downscaled Product (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data and county-level projections for the size and distribution of the U.S. age 69+ population. Results Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the United States, with particular “hotspots” in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions. Discussion and Implications Interventions to address the impacts of temperature extremes on older adult well-being should consider the geographic distribution and drivers of this exposure. In historically cooler areas where climate change is driving exposures, investments in warning systems may be productive, whereas investments in health care and social services infrastructures are essential in historically hot regions where exposures are driven by population aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Describing patterns of familial cancer risk in subfertile men using population pedigree data

STUDY QUESTION Can we simultaneously assess risk for multiple cancers to identify familial multicancer patterns in families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men? SUMMARY ANSWER Here, distinct familial cancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in familial cancer risk by both type of subfertility and within subfertility type. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Subfertile men and their relatives show increased risk for certain cancers including testicular, thyroid, and pediatric. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION A retrospective cohort of subfertile men (N = 786) was identified and matched to fertile population controls (N = 5674). Family members out to third-degree relatives were identified for both subfertile men and fertile population controls (N = 337 754). The study period was 1966–2017. Individuals were censored at death or loss to follow-up, loss to follow-up occurred if they left Utah during the study period. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Azoospermic (0 × 10 6 /mL) and severely oligozoospermic (<1.5 × 10 6 /mL) men were identified in the Subfertility Health and Assisted Reproduction and the Environment cohort (SHARE). Subfertile men were age- and sex-matched 5:1 to fertile population controls and family members out to third-degree relatives were identified using the Utah Population Database (UPDB). Cancer diagnoses were identified through the Utah Cancer Registry. Families containing ≥10 members with ≥1 year of follow-up 1966–2017 were included (azoospermic: N = 426 families, 21 361 individuals; oligozoospermic: N = 360 families, 18 818 individuals). Unsupervised clustering based on standardized incidence ratios for 34 cancer phenotypes in the families was used to identify familial multicancer patterns; azoospermia and severe oligospermia families were assessed separately. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE Compared to control families, significant increases in cancer risks were observed in the azoospermia cohort for five cancer types: bone and joint cancers hazard ratio (HR) = 2.56 (95% CI = 1.48–4.42), soft tissue cancers HR = 1.56 (95% CI = 1.01–2.39), uterine cancers HR = 1.27 (95% CI = 1.03–1.56), Hodgkin lymphomas HR = 1.60 (95% CI = 1.07–2.39), and thyroid cancer HR = 1.54 (95% CI = 1.21–1.97). Among severe oligozoospermia families, increased risk was seen for three cancer types: colon cancer HR = 1.16 (95% CI = 1.01–1.32), bone and joint cancers HR = 2.43 (95% CI = 1.30–4.54), and testis cancer HR = 2.34 (95% CI = 1.60–3.42) along with a significant decrease in esophageal cancer risk HR = 0.39 (95% CI = 0.16–0.97). Thirteen clusters of familial multicancer patterns were identified in families of azoospermic men, 66% of families in the azoospermia cohort showed population-level cancer risks, however, the remaining 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 2-7 cancer types. Several of the clusters with elevated cancer risks also showed increased odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages with six clusters showing increased odds of adolescent and young adult (AYA) diagnosis [odds ratio (OR) = 1.96–2.88] and two clusters showing increased odds of pediatric cancer diagnosis (OR = 3.64–12.63). Within the severe oligozoospermia cohort, 12 distinct familial multicancer clusters were identified. All 12 clusters showed elevated risk for 1–3 cancer types. An increase in odds of cancer diagnoses at young ages was also seen in five of the severe oligozoospermia familial multicancer clusters, three clusters showed increased odds of AYA diagnosis (OR = 2.19–2.78) with an additional two clusters showing increased odds of a pediatric diagnosis (OR = 3.84–9.32). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION Although this study has many strengths, including population data for family structure, cancer diagnoses and subfertility, there are limitations. First, semen measures are not available for the sample of fertile men. Second, there is no information on medical comorbidities or lifestyle risk factors such as smoking status, BMI, or environmental exposures. Third, all of the subfertile men included in this study were seen at a fertility clinic for evaluation. These men were therefore a subset of the overall population experiencing fertility problems and likely represent those with the socioeconomic means for evaluation by a physician. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS This analysis leveraged unique population-level data resources, SHARE and the UPDB, to describe novel multicancer clusters among the families of azoospermic and severely oligozoospermic men. Distinct overall multicancer risk and familial multicancer patterns were observed in the azoospermia and severe oligozoospermia cohorts, suggesting heterogeneity in cancer risk by type of subfertility and within subfertility type. Describing families with similar cancer risk patterns provides a new avenue to increase homogeneity for focused gene discovery and environmental risk factor studies. Such discoveries will lead to more accurate risk predictions and improved counseling for patients and their families. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) This work was funded by GEMS: Genomic approach to connecting Elevated germline Mutation rates with male infertility and Somatic health (Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD): R01 HD106112). The authors have no conflicts of interest relevant to this work.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unravelling the orbits of cluster galaxy populations according to their dominant gas ionization source

ABSTRACT We investigate the kinematical and dynamical properties of cluster galaxy populations classified according to their dominant source of gas ionization, namely: star-forming (SF) galaxies, optical active galactic nuclei (AGNs), mixed SF plus AGN ionization (transition objects, T), and quiescent (Q) galaxies. We stack 8892 member galaxies from 336 relaxed galaxy clusters to build an ensemble cluster and estimate the observed projected profiles of numerical density and velocity dispersion, $\sigma _P(R)$, of each galaxy population. The MAMPOSSt code and the Jeans equations inversion technique are used to constrain the velocity anisotropy profiles of the galaxy populations in both parametric and non-parametric ways. We find that Q (SF) galaxies display the lowest (highest) typical cluster-centric distances and velocity dispersion values. Transition galaxies are more concentrated and tend to exhibit lower velocity dispersion values than SF galaxies. Galaxies that host an optical AGN are as concentrated as Q galaxies but display velocity dispersion values similar to those of the SF population. MAMPOSSt is able to find equilibrium solutions that successfully recover the observed $\sigma _P(R)$ profile only for the Q, T, and AGN populations. We find that the orbits of all populations are consistent with isotropy in the inner regions, becoming increasingly radial with the distance from the cluster centre. These results suggest that Q galaxies are in equilibrium within their clusters, while SF galaxies have more recently arrived in the cluster environment. Finally, the T and AGN populations appear to be in an intermediate dynamical state between those of the SF and Q populations.

Valk, Greique A. (ORCID:0009000827731299)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Population Genomics of Pseudocercospora griseola Reveals New Groups in the Middle American Clade and the Presence of the Endophytic Bacterium Achromobacter xylosoxidans

Angular leaf spot (ALS), caused by Pseudocercospora griseola is an important disease of common beans. P. griseola, is highly variable and has co-evolved with its host. In this study, 48 isolates of P. griseola from Puerto Rico, Guatemala, Honduras and Tanzania were sequenced (3RADseq), resulting in the de novo assembly of 42,214 contigs. Phylogenomic, population genetic structure and principal component analyses using 1,260 SNPs divided these isolates into two populations, Andean and Middle American, while the Middle American population was further divided into three sub-populations. There were moderate to high levels of differentiation between P. griseola populations, with pairwise Fst values ranging from 0.11 to 0.95. The Andean population was composed of isolates from Tanzania, and was separated from the Middle American population (Fst = 0.95). The Middle American population was separated into 3 subpopulations including isolates from: 1. Guatemala and Honduras, 2. Tanzania, and 3. Puerto Rico. Pathogenicity testing of 27 isolates from Puerto Rico, using 12 common bean differential lines, identified ten races, but these races were not associated with SNPs found in virulence genes. DNA of an endophytic bacterium (Achromobacter xylosoxidans) was found in seven mildly virulent isolates suggesting a possible role of the bacterium in the observed virulence patterns. To understand the evolution and diversity of P. griseola, further study of the virulence genes and the interactions among the endophytic bacterium, the fungus, and the host plant is required. Such information is critical to inform breeding strategies for the development of resistant germplasm and cultivars.

Serrato-Diaz, Luz M. [U.S. Department of Agricultu↗
DOE OSTI2026

Satellite Embedding-Based Population Imputation for Areas with Missing Building Footprint Data: A Computer Vision-Based Approach

High-resolution population modeling is important for supporting effective decision-making across diverse sectors. LandScan Mosaic generates population estimates at the level of individual buildings and aggregates them to 3 arc-second grids, and this approach performs well in regions where building footprint data are comprehensive and reliable. However, large portions of the globe still suffer from incomplete, sparse, or entirely missing building stock datasets, creating a structural limitation for strictly building-based population models. To address this research gap, this study proposes a computer vision-based framework that employs Google Earth Engine satellite embeddings and UNet, which allows us to directly impute grid-level population estimates in building-data-deficient areas. Applied to Taiwan as a case study, the framework achieved strong predictive performance with R$^{2}$ of 0.89, RMSE of 18.70, and MAE of 8.41, outperforming traditional machine learning approaches. Notably, the proposed framework effectively addressed building false-positive errors inherent in Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) data, correctly identifying uninhabited areas that were erroneously classified as populated. The framework also offers significant advantages for global population mapping, particularly in terms of scalability and temporal consistency, thereby extending the coverage and accuracy of high-resolution population products in data-scarce regions worldwide. Urban planners, decision makers, and related stakeholders can obtain granular population distributions to support more accurate and targeted infrastructure investment, service delivery, resource allocation, and risk assessment decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗