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Supporting Hazard Analysis for Wildfire Response Using fmdtools and MIKA

The System Wide Safety (SWS) Safety Demonstrator (SD) Series drives development of an increasingly capable In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) focusing on humanitarian applications, starting with wildfire response (SD-1). The goals of this report are to (1) provide an early hazard analysis and mitigation evaluation of wildfire response to support these efforts and (2) provide a demonstration of capabilities of the Fault Model Design Tools (fmdtools) and Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) tools. fmdtools provides a modeling, simulation, and resiliency analysis framework in which a wildfire response model, the System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (SMARt-STEReO), is built. MIKA is an intelligent knowledge manager with several capabilities, including assisting in hazard analysis by extracting and analyzing hazards from historical incident reports. The following topics are covered in the report: Understanding Wildfire Hazard Dynamics. We provide a description and simulated examples of how hazards occur in the SMARt-STEReO model of wildfire response and their effect on its outcome. This provides a common mental model and focuses the analysis presented in the remainder of the report. Wildfire Hazard Identification. MIKA identifies wildfire hazards from three relevant datasets: the ICS-209-PLUS, SAFECOM, and SAFENET. Hazards are manually organized into a taxonomy and MIKA analyzes each hazard’s effects, likelihood, severity, and risk. Evaluating Mitigation Strategies. The SMARt-STEReO wildfire response model built in fmdtools evaluates a subset of identified hazards. Specifically, we simulate the effect of communications faults and equipment faults on operator safety, the effect of changing winds and flammability, and a scenario with multiple ignition points and heavy smoke. Tool Limitations and Usage Considerations. We provide a discussion of appropriate tool use cases as well as limitations and considerations for usage. The tool findings are used to synthesize recommendations for wildfire response operations, which can be captured as part of an IASMS. Key recommendations are as follows: Hazards are identified from a broad spectrum of sources including aircraft subsystems, operational sources, and ground crew operations. Highest risk operational environment hazards identified are Evacuations. The highest risk manned aerial operations hazard categorized is Jumper Operations Mishap. Ground crew hazards that are highest risk are Burns, Cargo Operations Overhead, Dehydration, Entrapment, Falling Objects, Heart Attacks, Heat Exhaustion, Inadequate Training or Certification, Vehicle Breakdown, and Vehicle Collision. Modelled containment failures arise from a mismatch between the difficulty of the firefighting scenario and the capacity (e.g., speed, effectiveness, awareness) of the response. In firefighting scenarios where containment is possible (e.g., because the fire does not spread too quickly), these mismatches can occur because of a change in environmental conditions (e.g., wind, flammability, etc) or because of planning, equipment, or communications faults. Improvements to communications increase the capacity of the firefighting response by reducing the time needed to respond to the fire. While surveillance does not increase this capacity by itself, it increases operator safety by increasing state awareness, enabling firefighters to evade approaching fires. Increasing both has a synergistic effect. In general, these performance and resilience increases generalize over fault scenarios as well as unforeseen changes to circumstances (i.e., wind, aridity, etc.). However, these improvements need to be designed so as not to make the system prone to persistent large-scale communications outages, which can reduce performance.

Hazard analysis

Control Modes of the ST7 Disturbance Reduction System Flight Validation Experiment

The Space Technology 7 experiment will perform an on-orbit system-level validation of two specific Disturbance Reduction System technologies: a gravitational reference sensor employing a free-floating test mass and a set of micro-Newton colloidal thrusters. The ST7 Disturbance Reduction System is designed to maintain the spacecraft s position with respect to a free-floating test mass to less than 10 nm/the square root of Hz over the frequency range of 1 to 30 mHz. This requirement will help ensure that the residual accelerations on the test masses (beyond gravitational acceleration) will be below the ST7 goal of 300 (1 + [f/3 mHz](sup 2)) pm/s(sup 2)/the square root of Hz. This paper presents the overall design and analysis of the spacecraft drag-free and attitude controllers being designed by NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center. These controllers close the loop between the GRS and the micro-Newton colloidal thrusters. The ST7 DRS comprises three control systems: the attitude control system to maintain a sun-pointing attitude, the drag free control to center the spacecraft about the test masses, and the test mass suspension control. There are five control modes in the operation of the ST7-DRS, starting from the attitude-only mode and leading to the challenging science mode. The design and analysis of each of the control modes are presented. An 18-DOF model is developed to capture the essential dynamics of the ST7-DRS package. It includes all rigid-body dynamics of the spacecraft and two test masses (three translations and three rotations for the spacecraft and each of the test masses). Actuation and measurement noise and major disturbance sources acting on the spacecraft and test masses are modeled.

Maghami, P. G.

Preliminary Screening Techno-Economic Analysis of Industrial SOFC/SOEC and Reversible SOC Integration

National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) provides system-level process, cost, and market analyses on solid oxide cell (SOC) based technologies. Specifically, techno-economic analyses (TEA), market assessments, and other technology evaluations serve to guide the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) Reversible Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (R-SOFC) Program technology goals and objectives. These studies are key to describing how the technologies contribute to improving domestic energy infrastructure in a clean, efficient manner. This effort seeks to elucidate the potential integration opportunities between reversible SOCs and industrial systems which would aid in SOC commercialization and deployment. These preliminary screening-level results show what opportunities exist for power generating SOFCs, hydrogen producing SOECs, and point-source carbon capture. Improvements can be seen through changes in cost of electricity, cost of hydrogen, and cost of carbon capture.

reversible SOC

Portable Fourier Transform Spectroscopy for Analysis of Surface Contamination and Quality Control

Progress has been made into adapting and enhancing a commercially available infrared spectrometer for the development of a handheld device for in-field measurements of the chemical composition of various samples of materials. The intent is to duplicate the functionality of a benchtop Fourier transform infrared spectrometer (FTIR) within the compactness of a handheld instrument with significantly improved spectral responsivity. Existing commercial technology, like the deuterated L-alanine triglycine sulfide detectors (DLATGS), is capable of sensitive in-field chemical analysis. This proposed approach compares several subsystem elements of the FTIR inside of the commercial, non-benchtop system to the commercial benchtop systems. These subsystem elements are the detector, the preamplifier and associated electronics of the detector, the interferometer, associated readout parameters, and cooling. This effort will examine these different detector subsystem elements to look for limitations in each. These limitations will be explored collaboratively with the commercial provider, and will be prioritized to meet the deliverable objectives. The tool design will be that of a handheld gun containing the IR filament source and associated optics. It will operate in a point-and-shoot manner, pointing the source and optics at the sample under test and capturing the reflected response of the material in the same handheld gun. Data will be captured via the gun and ported to a laptop.

Pugel, Diane

A Categorization of Dynamic Analyzers

Program analysis techniques and tools are essential to the development process because of the support they provide in detecting errors and deficiencies at different phases of development. The types of information rendered through analysis includes the following: statistical measurements of code, type checks, dataflow analysis, consistency checks, test data,verification of code, and debugging information. Analyzers can be broken into two major categories: dynamic and static. Static analyzers examine programs with respect to syntax errors and structural properties., This includes gathering statistical information on program content, such as the number of lines of executable code, source lines. and cyclomatic complexity. In addition, static analyzers provide the ability to check for the consistency of programs with respect to variables. Dynamic analyzers in contrast are dependent on input and the execution of a program providing the ability to find errors that cannot be detected through the use of static analysis alone. Dynamic analysis provides information on the behavior of a program rather than on the syntax. Both types of analysis detect errors in a program, but dynamic analyzers accomplish this through run-time behavior. This paper focuses on the following broad classification of dynamic analyzers: 1) Metrics; 2) Models; and 3) Monitors. Metrics are those analyzers that provide measurement. The next category, models, captures those analyzers that present the state of the program to the user at specified points in time. The last category, monitors, checks specified code based on some criteria. The paper discusses each classification and the techniques that are included under them. In addition, the role of each technique in the software life cycle is discussed. Familiarization with the tools that measure, model and monitor programs provides a framework for understanding the program's dynamic behavior from different, perspectives through analysis of the input/output data.

Lujan, Michelle R.

Prediction Interval Development for Wind-Tunnel Balance Check-Loading

Results from the Facility Analysis Verification and Operational Reliability project revealed a critical gap in capability in ground-based aeronautics research applications. Without a standardized process for check-loading the wind-tunnel balance or the model system, the quality of the aerodynamic force data collected varied significantly between facilities. A prediction interval is required in order to confirm a check-loading. The prediction interval provides an expected upper and lower bound on balance load prediction at a given confidence level. A method has been developed which accounts for sources of variability due to calibration and check-load application. The prediction interval method of calculation and a case study demonstrating its use is provided. Validation of the methods is demonstrated for the case study based on the probability of capture of confirmation points.

Landman, Drew

Energy-efficient carbon capture from industrial point sources via commercially available green solvent and hollow fiber membrane contactors

Solvent-based absorption systems have emerged in the carbon capture space due to their high absorption capacities, reusability, and favorable energy requirements. Using diethyl sebacate as a solvent for pre- and post-combustion carbon capture has advantages over other solvents, including high hydrophobicity, low viscosity, low vapor pressure, high CO 2 solubility, high CO 2 selectivity, and being commercially available in large quantities. Despite these advantageous properties, the use of diethyl sebacate as a solvent for post-combustion carbon capture has not been studied in detail. To examine the capability of diethyl sebacate, a scalable, energy-efficient, hollow fiber membrane (microporous polypropylene and polyvinylidene fluoride) contactor (HFMC)-based process with low-cost and high surface area is investigated. A purity of 95.3 % CO 2 with 46 % recovery in one absorption stage was achieved, with a permeate flux over one magnitude greater than using a deep eutectic solvent in the same system. Technoeconomic analysis determined a ∼ 0.8 GJ per ton of CO 2 at a processing cost of ∼$93 per ton of CO 2 . Results from this work underscore the potential for utilizing green solvents in HFMC-based separation processes for effective carbon capture and provide a pathway towards practical deployment.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Imaging Three-Dimensional Molecular Structure and Dynamics with Multiparticle Covariance and Cumulant Coulomb Explosion Analysis

Coulomb explosion imaging (CEI) provides a direct means of imaging molecular geometry by correlating fragment ion momenta following the fragmentation of a molecular polycation. Here, we demonstrate the use of three-body covariance and four-body cumulant analysis to extract three-dimensional (3D) structural information from the X-ray-induced Coulomb explosion of tert-butyl iodide (C4H9I). Site-selective ionization at the iodine 4d edge with intense femtosecond soft X-ray pulses from an X-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) enables rapid charge buildup and molecular breakup. By correlating ionic fragments in the molecular frame, we isolate complete dissociation channels and reveal subtle structural changes, such as umbrella-type motion of the branched alkyl chain, during the ionization process. Comparison with point-charge simulations of the Coulomb explosion shows close agreement, validating the approach. Furthermore, these results establish covariance/cumulant mapping as a powerful strategy for imaging complex three-dimensional molecular structures and point the way toward time-resolved CEI using both XFEL and tabletop sources for capturing ultrafast structural dynamics.

Imaging

Direct flue gas capture for algae cultivation and subsequent valorization: evaluating life cycle emissions and costs

Algae cultivation and processing is an important pathway under discussion within the broader CO 2 capture and utilization umbrella. Here, we discuss the results of a life-cycle analysis and techno-economic analysis of a pilot-scale photobioreactor that uses flue gas directly from natural gas or biogas combustion at 3–5% CO 2 concentration. The system requires minimal freshwater use as it has been successfully run with industrial wastewater and has a much smaller areal footprint compared with open pond cultivation. Introducing the flue gas directly to the photobioreactor avoids the need for CO 2 separation and pressurization, which is undertaken in many other algae cultivation systems. For the end-use of the biomass, the default case assumes conversion of algae to liquid fuels via hydrothermal liquefaction. The results indicate that the pilot-scale system has a higher cost, and comparable greenhouse gas emissions compared to pond-based systems, especially as the grid is anticipated to evolve to a lower carbon intensity. The costs of algae biofuel production range from $\$12–16$ per GGE at the current pilot scale. Depending on whether the source of the carbon is fossil or biogenic, the net emissions are 68 g CO 2 e per MJ and −4 g CO 2 e per MJ respectively. If the marine algae species is used instead of the freshwater species, it offers an additional 16 g CO 2 e per MJ carbon fixation in the form of calcium carbonate. The findings point to broadly desirable trends in GHG emissions and costs, while the discussion aims to shed light on areas that could further improve the scalability of the system.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS

Deep Learning Method for Detecting Precursors to Adverse Events

With the recent advancements in Deep Learning methods, the ability to model large complex heterogeneous data sets are fundamentally changing industry and research. Coupled with hardware improvements, and ease of implementation, a wide variety of deep neural network architectures can quickly be developed to solve a sweeping range of problems such as: object detection in images, automatic healthcare diagnosis using heterogenous data sources, real time language translating and sentence prediction, upscaling low resolution images, and forecasting of multivariate timeseries. Generally, many of these architectures outperform classical machine learning approaches in their respective tasks, however, this typically comes at a cost of interpretability. These black box algorithms generally suffer from lack of transparency in both model complexity as well as the rationale behind the prediction. This lack of comprehension, is driving an emerging area of interest in “Explainable AI”. An algorithm called: “Deep Temporal Multiple Instance Learning”1 was a recently developed to identify precursors to adverse events and has been applied in the aviation domain. The deep learning architecture is designed to capture the evolution of the probability of the outcome over the time preceding the adverse event using a multiple instance learning approach as illustrated in Figure 1. Precursors are defined when the probability of the event has exceeded a threshold at some point in the timeseries, at which point, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine contributing factors. The contributing factors are used to explain and define the precursor during the periods where the probability score is high. The identified contributing factors are then presented to subject matter experts to provide objective insights into the leading factors associated with the particular adverse event. The algorithm has been tested on flight data from a commercial airline and has the ability to discover precursors to known adverse events that take the form of safety critical operations, such as unstable approach events on final approach. Apart from detecting precursors to adverse events, the converse can also be leveraged to discover corrective actions. These positive actions manifest themselves as periods in the timeseries when the precursor score has been lowered from an elevated state; meaning that if the system had been left uncorrected, it would have eventually reached the adverse event state. Characterizing these state changes can help identify successful interventions that may not have been known before. Policy makers and procedure designers can use this additional knowledge to craft more safety and efficient resilient procedures for future operations and therefore improve the overall performance of the National Airspace.

Matthews, Bryan L.

Dynamics of Thermally Driven Domain Transformation in Ferroelectric Thin Films

An important feature in ultrathin ferroelectric films is the spontaneous formation of nanoscale polarization domain patterns. Epitaxial strain can greatly increase the ferroelectric transition temperature such that films can be in the ferroelectric state during growth. On the other hand, depolarization fields compete with ferroelectricity in ultrathin films, and, consequently, the optimal domain configuration during growth is a moving target. Under these conditions it is readily possible for a grown film to be in a nonequilibrium domain configuration. As the energy landscape in the system is quite complex, the relaxation dynamics by which a system can evolve towards the true equilibrium configuration are also quite interesting. Here, to capture the details of this process we used Bragg-geometry x-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS), in which x-ray scattering speckle patterns contain the information from the domain arrangements inside the film. With modest heating (∼15⁢0 °C) domain relaxation from 𝑇 (tetragonal) to 𝑀 𝐶 (monoclinic) was observed in BaTiO 3 films grown on ultrathin ferroelectric PbTiO 3 layers. Two-time correlation analysis reveals fascinating details associated with sticking points and reversals in the process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Addressing and Presenting Quality of Satellite Data via Web-Based Services

With the recent attention to climate change and proliferation of remote-sensing data utilization, climate model and various environmental monitoring and protection applications have begun to increasingly rely on satellite measurements. Research application users seek good quality satellite data, with uncertainties and biases provided for each data point. However, different communities address remote sensing quality issues rather inconsistently and differently. We describe our attempt to systematically characterize, capture, and provision quality and uncertainty information as it applies to the NASA MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth data product. In particular, we note the semantic differences in quality/bias/uncertainty at the pixel, granule, product, and record levels. We outline various factors contributing to uncertainty or error budget; errors. Web-based science analysis and processing tools allow users to access, analyze, and generate visualizations of data while alleviating users from having directly managing complex data processing operations. These tools provide value by streamlining the data analysis process, but usually shield users from details of the data processing steps, algorithm assumptions, caveats, etc. Correct interpretation of the final analysis requires user understanding of how data has been generated and processed and what potential biases, anomalies, or errors may have been introduced. By providing services that leverage data lineage provenance and domain-expertise, expert systems can be built to aid the user in understanding data sources, processing, and the suitability for use of products generated by the tools. We describe our experiences developing a semantic, provenance-aware, expert-knowledge advisory system applied to NASA Giovanni web-based Earth science data analysis tool as part of the ESTO AIST-funded Multi-sensor Data Synergy Advisor project.

Leptoukh, Gregory

Usage of ChatGPT for Engineering Design and Analysis Tool Development

ChatGPT, a generative AI large language model, has recently captured significant attention in both the computer science community and the broader public domain. It has demonstrated a wide range of capabilities, from answering simple questions to writing fully functional computer code. This study spotlights both the capabilities and limitations of ChatGPT when addressing engineering problems. The model's capacity to generate practical engineering tools is highlighted through an example of a prompt that leads to an interactive plotting tool, enabling the examination of the fluid boundary layer around a fan blade. Subsequently, the paper also uncovers potential pitfalls in ChatGPT’s application, shown through an unsuccessful attempt to use ChatGPT to automate a process in Ansys Workbench through scripting. The research further investigates ChatGPT's proficiency in addressing inquiries and providing explanations about the functionalities of OpenMDAO, an open-source, multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization tool developed at NASA Glenn Research Center. Finally, an optimization methodology, developed with ChatGPT’s help, is applied to the structural optimization of a fan blade. The developed optimization method utilizes T-Blade3 for geometry generation, Ansys Mechanical for meshing and finite element analysis, and sci-kit learn’s MLPRegressor method to generate a trained neural network model of the design space. OpenMDAO is then used to find the optimal point within the design space. The outcome is a significant reduction in stress in the optimized model—less than one-fifth of the stress value in the baseline model.

Design

Usage of ChatGPT for Engineering Design and Analysis Tool Development

ChatGPT, a generative AI large language model, has recently captured significant attention in both the computer science community and the broader public domain. It has demonstrated a wide range of capabilities, from answering simple questions to writing fully functional computer code. This study spotlights both the capabilities and limitations of ChatGPT when addressing engineering problems. The model's capacity to generate practical engineering tools is highlighted through an example of a prompt that leads to an interactive plotting tool, enabling the examination of the fluid boundary layer around a fan blade. Subsequently, the paper also uncovers potential pitfalls in ChatGPT’s application, shown through an unsuccessful attempt to use ChatGPT to automate a process in Ansys Workbench through scripting. The research further investigates ChatGPT's proficiency in addressing inquiries and providing explanations about the functionalities of OpenMDAO, an open-source, multidisciplinary design, analysis, and optimization tool developed at NASA Glenn Research Center. Finally, an optimization methodology, developed with ChatGPT’s help, is applied to the structural optimization of a fan blade. The developed optimization method utilizes T-Blade3 for geometry generation, Ansys Mechanical for meshing and finite element analysis, and sci-kit learn’s MLPRegressor method to generate a trained neural network model of the design space. OpenMDAO is then used to find the optimal point within the design space. The outcome is a significant reduction in stress in the optimized model—less than one-fifth of the stress value in the baseline model.

Design

Reaction Wheel Disturbance Model Extraction Software - RWDMES

The RWDMES is a tool for modeling the disturbances imparted on spacecraft by spinning reaction wheels. Reaction wheels are usually the largest disturbance source on a precision pointing spacecraft, and can be the dominating source of pointing error. Accurate knowledge of the disturbance environment is critical to accurate prediction of the pointing performance. In the past, it has been difficult to extract an accurate wheel disturbance model since the forcing mechanisms are difficult to model physically, and the forcing amplitudes are filtered by the dynamics of the reaction wheel. RWDMES captures the wheel-induced disturbances using a hybrid physical/empirical model that is extracted directly from measured forcing data. The empirical models capture the tonal forces that occur at harmonics of the spin rate, and the broadband forces that arise from random effects. The empirical forcing functions are filtered by a physical model of the wheel structure that includes spin-rate-dependent moments (gyroscopic terms). The resulting hybrid model creates a highly accurate prediction of wheel-induced forces. It accounts for variation in disturbance frequency, as well as the shifts in structural amplification by the whirl modes, as the spin rate changes. This software provides a point-and-click environment for producing accurate models with minimal user effort. Where conventional approaches may take weeks to produce a model of variable quality, RWDMES can create a demonstrably high accuracy model in two hours. The software consists of a graphical user interface (GUI) that enables the user to specify all analysis parameters, to evaluate analysis results and to iteratively refine the model. Underlying algorithms automatically extract disturbance harmonics, initialize and tune harmonic models, and initialize and tune broadband noise models. The component steps are described in the RWDMES user s guide and include: converting time domain data to waterfall PSDs (power spectral densities); converting PSDs to order analysis data; extracting harmonics; initializing and simultaneously tuning a harmonic model and a wheel structural model; initializing and tuning a broadband model; and verifying the harmonic/broadband/structural model against the measurement data. Functional operation is through a MATLAB GUI that loads test data, performs the various analyses, plots evaluation data for assessment and refinement of analysis parameters, and exports the data to documentation or downstream analysis code. The harmonic models are defined as specified functions of frequency, typically speed-squared. The reaction wheel structural model is realized as mass, damping, and stiffness matrices (typically from a finite element analysis package) with the addition of a gyroscopic forcing matrix. The broadband noise model is realized as a set of speed-dependent filters. The tuning of the combined model is performed using nonlinear least squares techniques. RWDMES is implemented as a MATLAB toolbox comprising the Fit Manager for performing the model extraction, Data Manager for managing input data and output models, the Gyro Manager for modifying wheel structural models, and the Harmonic Editor for evaluating and tuning harmonic models. This software was validated using data from Goodrich E wheels, and from GSFC Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) wheels. The validation testing proved that RWDMES has the capability to extract accurate disturbance models from flight reaction wheels with minimal user effort.

Blaurock, Carl

Techno-Economic Analysis of Green Hydrogen Energy Storage in a Cryogenic Flux Capacitor

Abstract The Cryogenic Flux Capacitor (CFC) is a cold, dense energy storage core that is being studied in the cryo-compressed, about 300 bar and 80K, region of gaseous hydrogen (GH2) storage and liquid hydrogen (LH2) region near the normal boiling point. Hydrogen storage is improved by physically bonding the molecules within the nanoscale pores of the aerogel composite blanket material. The process of bonding or debonding is governed by principles of physical adsorption (physisorption) and thermodynamics. The large surface area afforded by the nanoporous aerogel (∼1,000 m2/g) allows its storage performance to easily exceed capacities of high-pressure GH2 storage for an equivalent volume. With the integrated aerogel, subscale tests have shown that storage is increased by about 36% over a simple tank filled with GH2 at the same operating temperature and pressure. For LH2 conditions, the CFC is shown to operate at improved densities, but testing is ongoing. For the techno-economic analysis (TEA), the source of hydrogen is compared between onsite steam methane reforming (SMR) and onsite solar photovoltaic (PV) panels providing power to electrolyzers to produce green GH2. The TEA compares pure hydrogen produced at a small scale for a 25 MW power system and at a large scale in a 500 MW power system. The system allowed for hydrogen imports and exports at a set price with a tank sized for 10 hours of power production. The two power producing technologies are a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) and hydrogen fuel cells. The SMR system uses natural gas as an input and includes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) system. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH), and levelized cost of storage (LCOS) are developed based on the capital cost and operating cost of the systems. The results are shown for current costs using a 2021 benchmark and DOE projections for cost improvements by 2030. The TEA showed that onsite hydrogen generation from SMR has an LCOH of about 1.4 to 2 USD per kg over the life of the plant and the PV hydrogen production LCOH is about 5.2 to 5.5 USD per kg. The LCOS of conventional GH2 systems is estimated to be $210/MWh and cost of storage for LH2 systems is $205/MWh for fuel cell systems and $249/MWh for CCGT systems. CFC improved the LCOS of all these systems to $198/MWh, $191/MWh and $233/MWh respectively. The LCOE also improved with conventional systems between $171/MWh and $228/MWh improved by CFC to between $167/MWh and $212/MWh. Using projections for improvement in costs following DOE’s goals by 2030, green hydrogen improved to as low as $78/MWh LCOS and LCOE for conventional cases. CFC improved over conventional storage with the lowest LCOS being $62/MWh and the lowest LCOE being $73/MWh. These results correspond to an LCOH of $2/kg. Finally, the TEA shows how LCOE is improved for hydrogen conditioning and storage over conventional systems and caverns in the 10 to 50 hour range.

08 HYDROGEN

Techno-Economic Analysis of Green Hydrogen Energy Storage in A Cryogenic Flux Capacitor

The Cryogenic Flux Capacitor (CFC) is a cold, dense energy storage core that is being studied in the cryo-compressed, about 300 bar and 80K, region of gaseous hydrogen (GH 2 ) storage and liquid hydrogen (LH 2 ) region near the normal boiling point. Hydrogen storage is improved by physically bonding the molecules within the nanoscale pores of the aerogel composite blanket material. The process of bonding or debonding is governed by principles of physical adsorption (physisorption) and thermodynamics. The large surface area afforded by the nanoporous aerogel (~1,000 m 2 /g) allows its storage performance to easily exceed capacities of high-pressure GH 2 storage for an equivalent volume. With the integrated aerogel, subscale tests have shown that storage is increased by about 36% over a simple tank filled with GH 2 at the same operating temperature and pressure. For LH 2 conditions, the CFC is shown to operate at improved densities, but testing is ongoing. For the techno-economic analysis (TEA), the source of hydrogen is compared between onsite steam methane reforming (SMR) and onsite solar photovoltaic (PV) panels providing power to electrolyzers to produce green GH 2 . The TEA compares pure hydrogen produced at a small scale for a 25 MW power system and at a large scale in a 500 MW power system. The system allowed for hydrogen imports and exports at a set price with a tank sized for 10 hours of power production. The two power producing technologies are a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) and hydrogen fuel cells. The SMR system uses natural gas as an input and includes a carbon capture and storage (CCS) system. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH), and levelized cost of storage (LCOS) are developed based on the capital cost and operating cost of the systems. The results are shown for current costs using a 2021 benchmark and DOE projections for cost improvements by 2030. The TEA showed that onsite hydrogen generation from SMR has an LCOH of about 1.4 to 2 USD per kg over the life of the plant and the PV hydrogen production LCOH is about 5.2 to 5.5 USD per kg. The LCOS of conventional GH 2 systems is estimated to be $210/MWh and cost of storage for LH 2 systems is $205/MWh for fuel cell systems and $249/MWh for CCGT systems. CFC improved the LCOS of all these systems to $198/MWh, $191/MWh and $233/MWh respectively. The LCOE also improved with conventional systems between $171/MWh and $228/MWh improved by CFC to between $167/MWh and $212/MWh. Using projections for improvement in costs following DOE’s goals by 2030, green hydrogen improved to as low as $78/MWh LCOS and LCOE for conventional cases. CFC improved over conventional storage with the lowest LCOS being $62/MWh and the lowest LCOE being $73/MWh. These results correspond to an LCOH of $2/kg. Finally, the TEA shows how LCOE is improved for hydrogen conditioning and storage over conventional systems and caverns in the 10 to 50 hour range.

Joshua Schmitt

Temperature-Staged Thermal Energy Storage Enabling Low Thermal Exergy Loss Reflux Boiling in Full Spectrum Solar Systems

Hybrid full spectrum solar systems (FSSS) designed to capture and convert the full solar wavelength spectrum use hybrid solar photovoltaic/thermodynamic cycles that require low thermal exergy loss systems capable of transferring high thermal energy rates and fluxes with very low temperature differentials and losses. One approach to achieving this capability are high-heat-flux reflux boiling systems that take advantage of high heat transfer boiling and condensation mechanisms. Advanced solar systems are also intermittent by their nature and their electrical generation is often out-of-phase with electric utility power demand, and their required power system cycling reduces efficiency, performance (dispatch ability), lifetime, and reliability. High temperature thermal energy storage (TES) at 300-600°C enables these reflux boiling systems to simultaneously store thermal energy internally to increase the energy dispatch ability of the associated solar system, as this can increase the power generation profile by several hours (up to 6-10 hours) per day. Many TES phase change materials (PCM’s) exist including KNO3, NaNO3, LiBr/KBr, MgCl2/NaCl/KCl, Zn/Mg, and CuCl/NaCl, which have various operating melting points and different latent heats of fusion. Common, cost effective TES PCM's are FeCl2/NaCl/KCl mixtures, whose phase change temperature can be varied and controlled by simple composition adjustments. This paper presents and discusses unique "temperature-staged" thermal energy storage configurations using these TES materials and analysis of such systems integrated into high-heat-flux reflux boiling systems. In this specific application, the TES materials are designed to operate at staged temperatures surrounding an operating design point near 350°C, while providing 18 kW of source heat transfer to operate a thermoacoustic power system during off-sun conditions (e.g., temporary cloud conditions, after sun-down). This work discusses relevant configurations, and critical thermal and entropy models of the TES configurations, which show the inherent minimization of thermal exergy during critical heat transfers within the configurations and systems envisioned.

Hendricks, Terry J.