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DOE OSTI2026

A Faster-Than-Real-Time Framework for Reliability-Oriented Simulation of PV Inverters

Physics-of-Failure (PoF) based reliability assessment for photovoltaic (PV) inverters requires long-duration electrical and electrothermal stress histories, yet generating such stress histories with high-fidelity switching models over year long mission profiles is computationally prohibitive. Conventional methods either sacrifice modeling fidelity for speed or require runtimes that are impractical for design iteration and uncertainty studies. To address this bottleneck, this paper presents a High-Performance Computing (HPC) based simulation frame work for faster-than-real-time reliability-oriented simulation. The proposed framework integrates the Average-to-Switching (A2S) method with parallel computing techniques to accelerate switching-level waveform reconstruction. We further introduce optimization strategies, including cluster merging and sensitivity based mission profile screening, to reduce the computational burden. Evaluated using real-world mission profile inputs and a MATLAB/Simulink switching-model reference, the framework reduces the simulation time for a one-year mission from an intractable multi-year duration to approximately 7.3 minutes while maintaining low waveform error. This acceleration provides a practical reliability-oriented simulation engine that can be coupled with component-specific aging models for subsequent PV inverter PoF assessment.

High-performance Computing↗

DOE OSTI2020

Initial microstructural model for creep-fatigue damage in Grade 91 steel

This report describes an initial Crystal Plasticity Finite Element Method (CPFEM) model for cyclic plasticity and damage in Grade 91 steel. The objective of this work is to develop a framework for modeling creep-fatigue interaction in Grade 91 steel to better predict the onset of damage in high temperature microreactor components. Many microreactor concepts envision low operating pressures but relatively high thermal stresses. Under these conditions, creep-fatigue will likely be the dominant design failure mechanism. Physically based models, like the one under development here, could lead to a better understanding of creep-fatigue mechanisms and the effect of stress multiaxiality and hold time on creep-fatigue damage. In turn, this could lead to more efficient microreactor component designs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Systematic Enterprise Risk Management by Integrating the RISMC Toolkit and Cost-Benefit Analysis (Final Report)

The goal of this research is to theorize and quantify the relationships between safety and the financial performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (SoTeRiA) theoretical framework, which connects the social aspects (e.g., safety culture) and structural features (e.g., safety practices) of an organization with organizational safety and financial risks, is used to theorize the direct and indirect relationships between safety and the financial performance of NPPs. An Integrated Enterprise Risk Management (I-ERM) methodological framework is developed to operationalize SoTeRiA to quantify NPP safety and financial performance in a unified platform where their underlying physical degradation mechanisms, coupled with maintenance performance (considering human and organizational factors), are explicitly incorporated to depict the interconnections and dependencies between safety and financial performance. In this study, NPP safety refers to both occupational safety and system safety (estimated from Probabilistic Risk Assessment, PRA), and financial performance refers to the monetary values associated with NPP operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies. This report covers a case study demonstrating the feasibility of the I-ERM methodological framework. More detailed development of one of the I-ERM modules, i.e., Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) analysis, and its connection with other I-ERM modules is demonstrated in a second case study. The outcome of this research will help NPP decision-makers create cost-saving maintenance strategies while maintaining safety by providing cost- and risk-informed recommendations regarding maintenance work processes and operational strategies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Power Electronics and Electric Machines

The advanced power electronics and electric machines (APEEM) research group at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has developed world-class experimental and modeling capabilities for designing and evaluating efficient and reliable power electronics and electric machines thermal management systems. They also design, fabricate and characterize advanced power electronics packaging, and are developing state-of-health monitoring techniques. These researchers deliver safe, reliable, high performing, power-dense components that allow seamless integration between renewable energy sources, electric transportation, and the grid, helping to make widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption and greenhouse gas emissions reduction more feasible. This document outlines the group's major capabilities in the areas of power electronics; module development and characterization; thermal modeling and management; thermomechanical reliability analysis of devices, modules, inverters/converters, and electric machines; physics-of-failure-based reliability analysis; and microelectronics. It also overviews the group's state-of-the-art equipment for fluid-based thermal management; thermal measurement & characterization; thermomechanical reliability analysis; micro- and power electronics measurement & characterization; and prototype fabrication, as well as the group's world-class modeling and simulation capabilities.

advanced gate drivers↗

DOE OSTI2023

Virtual supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) automation controller

One or more virtual supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) controllers are provided. The virtual SCADA controller(s) may be deployed upon a detection of a failure of a physical SCADA controller. An on-site module may detect failure including a security breach which causes the physical SCADA controller to be disconnected from a network and the virtual SCADA controller(s) to take over control. The virtual SCADA controller(s) may be on-site or off-site.

Smith, Jared M.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Testing Recommendations for Thermal Failure Analysis

Minimizing ranges of uncertainty in failure QOIs is vital for making informed engineering decisions. To improve our decision-making ability, it is necessary to have a QOI representation that captures more complex failure modes. Capturing the physics of complex time-dependent temperature failure in explicit detail can be computationally and experimentally expensive. To avoid this blooming of complication and costs, an empirical QOI component-level failure/damage model may be sufficient to help identify component-level failure. In this context, failure and damage are abstractions of more complicated processes that lead to the cessation of normal operating behavior, not a representation of mechanical damage, such as void formation. Such a model requires minimal increases in computational cost and experimental burden. The proposed QOI serves as an indicator that something has likely failed, similar to the previous critical failure temperatures or pressures. This QOI will not replace any existing failure QOIs. It will be calculated alongside them, allowing for preservation of legacy style QOI measurements with new context from the new QOI.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hybrid Particle Method for Computational Shock Physics

A long-standing area of research for Eulerian shock wave physics codes has been the treatment of strength and damage for materials. Here we present a method that will aid in the analysis of strength and failure in shock physics applications where excessive diffusion of critical variables can occur and control the solution outcome. Eulerian methods excel for large deformation simulations in general but are inaccurate in capturing structural behavior. Lagrangian methods provide better structural response, but finite element meshes can become tangled. Therefore, a technique for merging Lagrangian and Eulerian treatments of material response, within a single numerical framework, was implemented in the Multiple Component computational shock physics hydrocode. The capability is a Lagrangian/Eulerian Particle Method (LEPM) that uses particles to interface a Lagrangian treatment of material strength with a more traditional Eulerian treatment of the Equation of State (EOS). Lagrangian numerical methods avoid the advection diffusion found in Eulerian methods, which typically strongly affects strength constitutive law internal variables, such as equivalent plastic strain, porosity and/or damage. The Lagrangian capability enhances existing capabilities and permits accurate predictions of high rate, large deformation and/or shock of mechanical structures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Natural Language Processing-Enhanced Nuclear Industry Operating Experience Data Analysis: Aggregation and Interpretation of Multi-Report Analysis Results

Industry-wide operating experience is a critical source of raw data for reliability and risk model parameter estimations for nuclear power plants. A large portion of operating experience data are failure events stored as reports that contain unstructured data, such as narratives. In current practice, a failure report is usually reviewed and manually coded by analysts. The coding is based on extracting several event characteristics such as system name, component type, sub-part type, failure mode, and failure cause. Event narratives are mostly used to help understand events and extract their characteristics. In this line of research, we aim to maximize the usage of event narratives by leveraging natural language processing (NLP) methods to automatically convert an event narrative to a causal graph. This research has promise to improve physical understanding of failure initiation and propagation and to facilitate use of non-failure data (e.g., near-misses and degradations) to complement the limited data pool of failures. In our previous work, we developed an NLP tool and applied it to analyze a number of licensee event reports submitted by U.S. nuclear power plants to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In this paper, we will report our recent research progress in aggregating the results of multiple reports, developing network model(s), and drawing statistical insights.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic Evaluation of Geomechanical Risks in CO2 Storage: An Exploration of Caprock Integrity Metrics Using a Multilaminate Model

The probabilistic uncertainty assessment of geomechanical risk—specifically, caprock failure—attributable to CO2 injection, as presented in a simplified hypothetical geological model, was the focus of this study. Our approach amalgamates the implementation of a multilaminate model, the creation of a response surface model in conjunction with the Box–Behnken sampling design, the execution of associated numerical modeling experiments, and the utilization of Monte Carlo simulations. Probability distributions to encapsulate the inherent variability (elastic and mechanical properties of the caprock and reservoir) and uncertainty in prediction estimates (vertical displacement, total strain, and F value) were employed. Our findings reveal that the Young modulus of the caprock is a key factor controlling equivalent total strain but is insufficient as a stand-alone indicator of caprock integrity. It is confirmed that the caprock can accommodate significant deformation without failure, if it possesses a low Young’s modulus and high mechanical strength properties, such as the friction angle and uniaxial compressive strength. Similarly, vertical displacement was found to be an unreliable indicator for caprock integrity, as caprock failure can occur across a broad spectrum of vertical displacements, particularly when both the Young modulus and mechanical strength properties have wide ranges. This study introduces the F value as the most dependable indicator for caprock failure, although it is a theoretical attribute (the shortest distance between the Mohr circle and the nearest failure envelope used to measure the sensitivity to failure) and not physically measurable in the field. Deviatoric stress levels were found to vary based on stress regimes, with the maximum levels observed under extensive and compressive stress regimes. In conjunction with the use of the response surface method, this study demonstrates the efficacy of the multilaminate framework and the Mohr–Coulomb constitutive model in providing a simplified, yet effective, probabilistic model of the mechanical behavior of caprock failure, reducing mathematical and computational complexities.

Energy & Fuels↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reliability Improvement and Effective Switching Layer Model of Thin-Film MoS 2 Memristors

2D memristors have demonstrated attractive resistive switching characteristics recently but also suffer from the reliability issue, which limits practical applications. Previous efforts on 2D memristors have primarily focused on exploring new material systems, while damage from the metallization step remains a practical concern for the reliability of 2D memristors. Here, the impact of metallization conditions and the thickness of MoS 2 films on the reliability and other device metrics of MoS 2 -based memristors is carefully studied. The statistical electrical measurements show that the reliability can be improved to 92% for yield and improved by ≈16× for average DC cycling endurance in the devices by reducing the top electrode (TE) deposition rate and increasing the thickness of MoS 2 films. Intriguing convergence of switching voltages and resistance ratio is revealed by the statistical analysis of experimental switching cycles. An “effective switching layer” model compatible with both monolayer and few-layer MoS 2 , is proposed to understand the reliability improvement related to the optimization of fabrication configuration and the convergence of switching metrics. In conclusion, the Monte Carlo simulations help illustrate the underlying physics of endurance failure associated with cluster formation and provide additional insight into endurance improvement with device fabrication optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep-Lynx-ML-Adapter

The Deep Lynx Machine Learning (ML) Adapter is a generic adapter that programmatically runs the ML as continuous data is received. Then, Jupyter Notebooks can be customized according to the project for pre-processing the data, building the machine learning models, prediction analysis of incoming data using an existing model, and forecasting anomalies / failures of the physical asset.

Wilsdon, KatherineN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transmission and Distribution Real-Time Analysis Software for Monitoring and Control: Design and Simulation Testing

The US electric grid is facing operational, stability, and security challenges. Transmission system operators need some measure of visibility into distribution system renewable generation. Distribution system generation needs to support transmission system voltage. The grid is experiencing an expansion in measurement systems. How to take full advantage of this expansion and defend against attacks, both cyber and physical, poses additional challenges. This paper introduces software designed to meet these challenges. At the center of the software is an Integrated System Model (ISM) that spans from transmission to secondary distribution. The ISM is employed in real-time abnormality detection, voltage stability forecasting, and multi-mode control. The software architecture along with selected analysis modules is presented. Testing results are presented for: 1—attacks on utility infrastructure; 2—energy savings from optimal control; 3—distribution system control response during a low voltage transmission system event; 4—cyber-attacks on PV inverters, where physical inverters are used in hardware-in-the-simulation-loop studies. Contributions of this work include real-time analysis that spans from three-phase transmission through secondary distribution; an approach for detecting abnormalities that employs measurements from three independent measurement systems; and a multi-mode distribution system control that responds to cyber-attacks, physical attacks, equipment failures, and transmission system needs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of Readily Available & Robust High Heat Flux Gardon Gauges

Concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies deliver concentrated solar energy as a heat source to industrial processes, power generation cycles, and chemical cycles. CSP systems require accurate and reliable high flux measurements, and next generation CSP systems will require flux measurement up to 1000 W/cm2. Existing flux measurement devices do not comprehensively meet the flux rating, cycle life, cost, and lead-time needs of stakeholders, necessitating the development of an improved flux sensor. In this study, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) partnered with Hukseflux Thermal Sensors to develop a low-cost, short lead-time, and robust flux sensor rated to 250 W/cm2. Three prototype circular foil gauge designs were assessed for performance at the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) at SNL. Each gauge design measured flux up to 250 W/cm2 with <5% measurement error. Following baseline error quantification, gauges were exposed to flux above 500 W/cm2 to assess gauge failure mechanisms. Gauges physically survived >500 W/cm2 flux exposure, but measurement error was found to increase after foil coatings reached 400 °C. The results of this study suggest that coating optical properties change at excessive temperatures and that foil coating temperature, rather than heat flux level, dictates the acceptable gauge measurement range.

McLaughlin, Luke (ORCID:0000000303711310)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Interpreting accelerated tests on perovskite modules using photooxidation of MAPbI 3 as an example

Solar panels (modules) based on metal halide perovskites are following a fast track to commercialization. Unlike more established solar cell materials, there are not yet decades-long field observations to increase consumer confidence. The "physics and chemistry of failure" approach is used in other industries and estimates product degradation based on laboratory accelerated tests integrated with an understanding of degradation mechanisms. This work uses that approach to quantify the relationship between accelerated tests and projected product behavior for metal halide perovskite modules. Degradation involving photooxidation of methylammonium lead iodide is used to illustrate the method. Acceleration factors in common accelerated tests are found to be low. Conclusions emphasize that the accelerated tests on photovoltaics should not be interpreted as equivalent across module types or as a green light for commercialization unless supported by the appropriate field data or physics and chemistry of failure analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States

The Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States provides state energy offices, public utility commissions, and partner organizations with a structured framework for integrating cyber-resilient engineering practices into energy planning, grantmaking, interconnection processes, and workforce development. As grid digitalization and the adoption of distributed energy resources accelerate, states face expanding cyber-physical risks that traditional cybersecurity measures alone cannot fully address. CIE offers a proactive, consequence-focused engineering methodology that emphasizes eliminating or mitigating high-impact failure modes through design, physical controls, and operational safeguards. The guide outlines the 12 core CIE principles, demonstrates their application through state-focused use cases—including grant evaluation rubrics, interconnection reviews, allow-list development, and training programs—and provides practical tools such as scoring frameworks, impact assessment methods, and implementation checklists. It also highlights pathways for state–utility collaboration and opportunities for technical assistance from national laboratories. By adopting CIE, states can enhance grid reliability, reduce lifecycle costs, strengthen supply-chain assurance, and foster a security-aware engineering culture that aligns with broader resilience and modernization goals. November 2025

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) Guide for States

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale dynamic experiments on fiber-reinforced composites with damage assessment using high-speed synchrotron X-ray phase-contrast imaging

We report fiber-reinforced composites (FRCs) have been widely used as protection materials to replace heavier metals. However, predictive capabilities for the impact-induced failure of FRCs have not been well-developed. In this work, we introduced an integrated technique to visualize the dynamic failure of FRCs, with the modified Kolsky bar loading and the high-speed synchrotron X-ray phase-contrast imaging (PCI). We summarize our experimental studies across the FRCs’ structural levels by using this integrated technique, including single-fiber tensile experiments, fiber/matrix debonding experiments, and single-edge notched bending experiments on composite laminates. It is revealed that the high-speed synchrotron X-ray PCI technique possesses sufficient spatial resolution to identify the failure behavior of a single fiber in the 10-μm scale level, as well as temporal resolution to identify the time sequence of internal dynamic damage evolution. The technique can penetrate through the opaque composite sample and provide real-time visualization of small-scale damaging mechanisms such as the embedded fiber’s sliding in the matrix and the fiber’s transverse debonding with the matrix. At an expanding scale, the technique can identify the crack initiation and track the cracking behavior inside a single ply or between different plies of a composite laminate. High-speed visualization inside the material by this integrated technique provides critical deformation and failure information to develop physical understanding of the damage inside composites under impact.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

14 MeV DT Neutron Test Facility at the Sandia Ion Beam Laboratory

A recently completed LDRD project has provided a new facility at Sandia for testing effects of energetic neutrons on electronic components. 14 MeV neutrons are produced with a deuterium ion beam onto a thin-film tritide target. The goal of the project was to increase the neutron fluence to levels needed for radiation effects testing and qualification. This goal was achieved through two technical advances. First, a new multi-layer target concept was developed to reduce the rate of tritium loss from the target by isotope exchange, thereby reducing tritium usage and increasing target lifetime. The second advance was the construction of a new test chamber designed to maximize neutron flux at test locations. Together, these increased the available neutron fluence by several orders of magnitude. This new capability is being used in tests for Sandia nuclear weapon programs, evaluation of commercial parts such as highly-scaled CMOS SRAM lCs, and tests of new devices under development at Sandia such as lll-V HBTs, gallium nitride high-voltage diodes, and for fundamental studies of physical mechanisms of device failure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗