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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Asteroseismic modelling of solar-type stars: a deeper look at the treatment of initial helium abundance

ABSTRACT Detailed understanding of stellar physics is essential towards a robust determination of stellar properties (e.g. radius, mass, and age). Among the vital input physics used in the modelling of solar-type stars which remain poorly constrained, is the initial helium abundance. To this end, when constructing stellar model grids, the initial helium abundance is estimated either (i) by using the semi-empirical helium-to-heavy element enrichment ratio, (ΔY/ΔZ), anchored to the standard big bang nucleosynthesis value, or (ii) by setting the initial helium abundance as a free variable. Adopting 35 low-mass, solar-type stars with multiyear Kepler photometry from the asteroseismic ‘LEGACY’ sample, we explore the systematic uncertainties on the inferred stellar parameters (i.e. radius, mass, and age) arising from the treatment of the initial helium abundance in stellar model grids. The stellar masses and radii derived from grids with free initial helium abundance are lower compared to those from grids based on a fixed ΔY/ΔZ ratio. We find the systematic uncertainties on mean density, radius, mass, and age arising from grids which employ a fixed value of ΔY/ΔZ and those with free initial helium abundance to be ∼ 0.9 per cent, ∼ 2 per cent, ∼ 5 per cent, and ∼ 29 per cent, respectively. We report that the systematic uncertainties on the inferred masses and radii arising from the treatment of initial helium abundance in stellar grids lie within the expected accuracy limits of ESA’s PLATO, although this is not the case for the age.

Nsamba, Benard↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights into Methodologies and Operational Details of Resource Adequacy Assessment: A Case Study with Application to a Broader Flexibility Framework

Assessing and maintaining resource adequacy (RA) is a core pillar of power systems. However, recent changes in the physical makeup of these systems and the conditions under which these systems must operate have yielded a renewed interest in the methods, metrics, and assumptions that underpin RA assessments. In this paper, we systematically explore a wide range of RA modeling dimensions, including: the objective function and level of operational detail in the underlying model formulation; the quantity (look-ahead) and quality (accuracy) of data that is available for making operational decisions within those models; and the physical configuration of solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage hybrid resources. We apply a set of probabilistic RA tools and production cost modeling tools to a realistic test system based loosely on a future Electric Reliability Council of Texas power system dominated by solar PV resources. Under the assumptions of our system and models, we find that multi-stage probabilistic assessments may provide a more robust evaluation of RA by capturing a wider range of operational and system interactions, but this comes at a computational cost of 1-2 orders of magnitude longer run time depending on the specific configuration. In addition, the information on thermal generator availability impacts RA performance by an order of magnitude more than solar resource forecasts, which is driven by the comparatively larger magnitude of thermal outages than solar forecast errors within our test system. Lastly, the flexibility provided by hybrid and other resources can help reduce system load-shedding event frequencies and enable the system to be more robust to inaccurate forecast information, and alternative hybrid inverter sizes can impact RA levels by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Our results point to the importance of a broader flexibility framework to describe the interaction between (1) flexibility "supply" from both physical resource capabilities and operational constraints considered in the modeling, and (2) flexibility "demand" from forecast errors, thermal generator outages, and other sources of uncertainty, as well as their RA impacts. Results are likely sensitive to the system buildout explored; future work could consider additional system configurations and conditions.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗
DOE OSTI2022

New oscillation and scattering constraints on the tau row matrix elements without assuming unitarity

The tau neutrino is the least well measured particle in the Standard Model. Most notably, the tau neutrino row of the lepton mixing matrix is quite poorly constrained when unitarity is not assumed. In this paper, we identify data sets involving tau neutrinos that improve our understanding of the tau neutrino part of the mixing matrix, in particular ν ${\tau}$ appearance in atmospheric neutrinos. We present new results on the elements of the tau row leveraging existing constraints on the electron and muon rows for the cases of unitarity violation, with and without kinematically accessible steriles. We also show the expected sensitivity due to upcoming experiments and demonstrate that the tau neutrino row precision may be comparable to the muon neutrino row in a careful combined fit.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A global analysis strategy to resolve neutrino NSI degeneracies with scattering and oscillation data

Neutrino non-standard interactions (NSI) with the first generation of standard model fermions can span a parameter space of large dimension and exhibit degeneracies that cannot be broken by a single class of experiment. Oscillation experiments, together with neutrino scattering experiments, can merge their observations into a highly informational dataset to combat this problem. We consider combining neutrino-electron and neutrino-nucleus scattering data from the Borexino and COHERENT experiments, including a projection for the upcoming coherent neutrino scattering measurement at the CENNS-10 liquid argon detector. We extend the reach of these data sets over the NSI parameter space with projections for neutrino scattering at a future multi-ton scale dark matter detector and future oscillation measurements from atmospheric neutrinos at the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE). In order to perform this global anal- ysis, we adopt a novel approach using the copula method, utilized to combine posterior information from different experiments with a large, generalized set of NSI parameters. We find that the contributions from DUNE and a dark matter detector to the Borexino and COHERENT fits can improve constraints on the electron and quark NSI parameters by up to a factor of 2 to 3, even when relatively many NSI parameters are left free to vary in the analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

FY2024 Q4 L2 Milestone 8237 for Opacity-on-NIF

This document addresses parts 2 and 3 of the original milestone request. In the following writeup, the development of OpSpecTR at LLNL by LLNL and NNSS personnel will be detailed first, followed by a write-up of the development of Vme-resolved simulaVons of the opacity-on-NIF experiment. Capsule backlight simulaVons, hohlraum simulaVons, and sample simulaVons from CASSIO are combined to produce the line of sight from the capsule to an effecVve OpSpec posiVon. Spectra are generated by post-processing these simulaVons from either Spect3D, a commercial software by Prism ComputaVonal Sciences, or FESTR (Finite Element Spectroscopic Transport of RadiaVon), a LANL code. While the simulaVons do not at this stage proceed late enough to include the worst of the backgrounds generated from the hohlraum experimentally and each post-processing simulaVon includes only one ray for each spectrometer channel, these efforts represent proof of concept for a new capability to complete Vme-resolved and Vmegated simulaVons for the complete line of sight of the complex opacity-on-NIF geometry. Future work will be discussed at the end of the report for both efforts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

IMoFi - Intelligent Model Fidelity: Physics-Based Data-Driven Grid Modeling to Accelerate Accurate PV Integration (Final Report)

This report summarizes the work performed under a project funded by U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) to use grid edge measurements to calibrate distribution system models for improved planning and grid integration of solar PV. Several physics-based data-driven algorithms are developed to identify inaccuracies in models and to bring increased visibility into distribution system planning. This includes phase identification, secondary system topology and parameter estimation, meter-to-transformer pairing, medium-voltage reconfiguration detection, determination of regulator and capacitor settings, PV system detection, PV parameter and setting estimation, PV dynamic models, and improved load modeling. Each of the algorithms is tested using simulation data and demonstrated on real feeders with our utility partners. The final algorithms demonstrate the potential for future planning and operations of the electric power grid to be more automated and data-driven, with more granularity, higher accuracy, and more comprehensive visibility into the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

IMoFi (Intelligent Model Fidelity): Physics-Based Data-Driven Grid Modeling to Accelerate Accurate PV Integration Updated Accomplishments

This report summarizes the work performed under a project funded by U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO), including some updates from the previous report SAND2022-0215, to use grid edge measurements to calibrate distribution system models for improved planning and grid integration of solar PV. Several physics-based data-driven algorithms are developed to identify inaccuracies in models and to bring increased visibility into distribution system planning. This includes phase identification, secondary system topology and parameter estimation, meter-to-transformer pairing, medium-voltage reconfiguration detection, determination of regulator and capacitor settings, PV system detection, PV parameter and setting estimation, PV dynamic models, and improved load modeling. Each of the algorithms is tested using simulation data and demonstrated on real feeders with our utility partners. The final algorithms demonstrate the potential for future planning and operations of the electric power grid to be more automated and data-driven, with more granularity, higher accuracy, and more comprehensive visibility into the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring AI/ML-based Real-time Anomaly Detection in DUNE for Supernova Burst Neutrinos

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is currently under construction with far detectors consisting of 4 liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) modules at SURF (South Dakota Underground Research Facility) and a near detector complex with neutrino beam production at Fermilab to unambiguously determine neutrino mass ordering, to discover and precisely measure Charge-Parity (CP) violation phase in leptonic sector, to search for Beyond Stand Model (BSM) physics, and to study solar and supernova burst neutrinos. Anomalies in this project are classified in three categories: new physics signals, supernova burst neutrinos, and detector malfunction. We report here on promising early studies toward an Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning-based real-time anomaly detection system, using a prototype autoencoder model currently under development. Additionally, the current status of an improved model and its performance will be presented. The model will be evaluated not only for its sensitivity to supernova neutrinos, but also to BSM physics signals and detector malfunctions. We will also consider how such a real-time algorithm might be used in DUNE.

de Jonge, Anselm [Kirchhoff Inst. Phys.] (ORCID:00↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the electrochemical behavior and interfacial junction profiles of bipolar membranes at solar flux relevant operating current densities

A 1-dimensional, multi-physics model that accounts for the migration and diffusion of solution species, electrostatics, and chemical reactions, in particular water dissociation (WD), at bipolar membrane (BPM) interfaces was developed to study the electrochemical behavior of bipolar membranes (BPMs) at solar flux relevant operating current densities (tens of mA cm -2 ). Significant partial current densities for WD were observed at BPM voltages much less than the equilibrium voltage, e.g., 59 mV × ΔpH from both experiments and modeling. The co-ion leakage across the BPM at pH differentials accounted for the early presence of the partial current density for WD. Two distinctive electric field dependent WD pathways, the un-catalyzed pathway and the catalyzed pathway, were quantitatively and parametrically studied to improve the turn-on potential of the BPM. The catalyzed pathway accounted for the majority of the partial current density for WD at low voltages, while the un-catalyzed pathway dominated the WD at relatively high voltages. Significant WD was observed only within the interfacial CL (<5 nm), in which a large electric field was present. To improve the electrochemical behavior and the turn-on potential of BPMs, the impacts of the pKa of the immobilized WD catalysts, the electric-field dependent rate constant, the thickness of the catalyst layer and fixed charge density in BPMs on the partial current densities for WD were studied systematically. In addition, the electrochemical behavior and concentration profiles of BPMs in a buffered electrolyte were studied and contrasted with those in an un-buffered electrolyte from both modeling and experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to identify uncertainties of WRF-Solar variables in forecasting solar irradiance using a tangent linear sensitivity analysis

Uncertainty in predicting solar energy resources introduces major challenges in power system management and necessitates the development of reliable probabilistic solar forecasts. As the first part of the development of probabilistic forecasts based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar), this study presents a tangent linear approach to identify input variables responsible for the largest uncertainties in predicting surface solar irradiance and clouds. A tangent linear analysis is capable of efficiently investigating sensitivities of output variables with respect to various input variables of WRF-Solar because this approach avoids the computational burden of perturbing the initial conditions of individual input variables. We develop tangent linear models (TLMs) for six WRF-Solar physics packages that control the formation and dissipation of clouds and solar radiation, and we evaluate the validity of TLMs using a linearity test. The tangent linear sensitivity analysis is conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations to consider realistic input conditions. A simple method is used to quantify the impact of the uncertainty of input variables on the output variables from the TLMs. The results demonstrate that uncertainties in the output variables that are the focus of this study—including global horizontal irradiance, direct normal irradiance, cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes—are highly sensitive to uncertainties in 14 input variables. This study indicates that the tangent linear method can identify key variables of physics modules in WRF-Solar that can be stochastically perturbed to generate ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ageing Studies of Mega Battery Packs for Grid Storage Applications Using Physics Based Modeling

The lower Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) from wind and solar photovoltaics has enabled for greater integration of variable energy resources with energy storage tech-nologies such as larger centralized lithium-ion battery megapacks (with 1MWh total energy and 500V rating) to provide utility-scale services to grid operators. The daily cycling of standalone lithium-ion grid storage will reduce the battery cells' capacity due to several degradation mechanisms. A comprehensive physics-based Python tm framework called Liionpack was developed to estimate these megapacks' remaining life and ageing. The study includes various degradation mechanisms coupled to the electrochemical-thermal model at the pack level. The effect of the inhomogeneities from cell-to-cell thermodynamic and kinetic properties for different working conditions including temperature and charge/discharge protocols on the ageing of a megapack are presented here.

Karra, Vikrant↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solar fusion III: New data and theory for hydrogen-burning stars

In stars that lie on the main sequence in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram, like our Sun, hydrogen is fused to helium in a number of nuclear reaction chains and series, such as the proton-proton chain and the carbon-nitrogen-oxygen cycles. Precisely determined thermonuclear rates of these reactions lie at the foundation of the standard solar model. This review, the third decadal evaluation of the nuclear physics of hydrogen-burning stars, is motivated by the great advances made in recent years by solar neutrino observatories, putting experimental knowledge of the proton-proton (𝑝⁢𝑝)-chain neutrino fluxes in the few-percent precision range. The basis of the review is a one-week community meeting held in July 2022 in Berkeley, California, and many subsequent digital meetings and exchanges. The relevant reactions of solar and stellar hydrogen burning are reviewed here from both theoretical and experimental perspectives. Recommendations for the state of the art of the astrophysical 𝑆 factor and its uncertainty are formulated for each of them. Furthermore, several other topics of paramount importance for the solar model are reviewed as well: recent and future neutrino experiments, electron screening, radiative opacities, and current and upcoming experimental facilities. In addition to reaction-specific recommendations, general recommendations are also formed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Expanded Set of Los Alamos OPLIB Tables in MESA: Type-1 Rosseland-mean Opacities and Solar Models

Abstract We present a set of 1194 Type-1 Rosseland-mean opacity tables for four different metallicity mixtures. These new Los Alamos OPLIB atomic radiative opacity tables are an order of magnitude larger in number than any previous opacity table release, and span regimes where previous opacity tables have not existed. For example, the new set of opacity tables expands the metallicity range to Z = 10 −6 to Z = 0.2, which allows improved accuracy of opacities at low and high metallicity, increases the table density in the metallicity range Z = 10 −4 to Z = 0.1 to enhance the accuracy of opacities drawn from interpolations across neighboring metallicities, and adds entries for hydrogen mass fractions between X = 0 and X = 0.1 including X = 10 −2 , 10 −3 , 10 −4 , 10 −5 , 10 −6 that can improve stellar models of hydrogen deficient stars. We implement these new OPLIB radiative opacity tables in MESA and find that calibrated solar models agree broadly with previously published helioseismic and solar neutrino results. We find differences between using the new 1194 OPLIB opacity tables and the 126 OPAL opacity tables range from ≈20% to 80% across individual chemical mixtures, up to ≈8% and ≈15% at the bottom and top of the solar convection zone respectively, and ≈7% in the solar core. We also find differences between standard solar models using different opacity table sources that are on par with altering the initial abundance mixture. We conclude that this new, open-access set of OPLIB opacity tables does not solve the solar modeling problem, and suggest the investigation of physical mechanisms other than the atomic radiative opacity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving the prediction of DNI with physics-based representation of all-sky circumsolar radiation

Direct normal irradiance (DNI) is often interpreted differently in ground measurements and forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, leading to substantial bias in DNI forecasting especially under cloudy-sky conditions. To mitigate the bias, we use the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI) to conduct physics-based simulations of solar radiation in the circumsolar region. The DNI is quantified using the sum of the radiation along the sun direction and the scattered radiation within the circumsolar region. FARMS-DNI is coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to predict day-ahead DNI in 9-km pixels over an extended domain covering the contiguous United States. The DNI forecasts for the entire year of 2018 are validated using surface-based observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) and Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) sites and a satellite-based solar radiation product developed by the procedure of the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). The results show that the WRF-Solar coupled with the conventional Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law underestimes the overall DNI forecasts by 30%-60%, which is a joint effect of the uncertainties in computing the circumsolar radiation and forecasting cloud properties. This bias is significantly reduced by using FARMS-DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗