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At least 37 records · Page 2

Image Processing Methods for Coronal Hole Segmentation, Matching, and Map Classification

The paper presents the results from a multi-year effort to develop and validate image processing methods forselecting the best physical models based on solar image observations. The approach consists of selecting the physical models based on their agreement with coronal holes extracted from the images. Ultimately, the goal is to use physical models to predict geomagnetic storms. We decompose the problem into three subproblems: (i) coronal hole segmentation based on physical constraints, (ii) matching clusters of coronal holes between different maps, and (iii) physical map classification. For segmenting coronal holes, we develop a multi-modal method that uses segmentation maps from three different methods to initialize a level-set method that evolves the initial coronal hole segmentation to the magnetic boundary. Then, we introducea new method based on Linear Programming for matchingclusters of coronal holes. The final matching is then performedusing Random Forests. The methods were carefully validatedusing consensus maps derived from multiple readers, manualclustering, manual map classification, and method validation for50 maps. The proposed multi-modal segmentation method significantly outperformed SegNet, U-net, Henney-Harvey, and FCNby providing accurate boundary detection. Overall, the methodgave a 95.5% map classification accuracy.

Jatla, Venkatesh↗

Improving the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) Using a Physics-Based Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) Model

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is a widely used resource providing satellite-derived solar data across the United States and globally. While the NSRDB employs a physical model for computing global horizontal irradiance (GHI), its current method for estimating cloudy-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI) relies on surface observations and empirical models. Recently, a novel physics-based approach, the Fast All-Sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI), was developed to enhance the DNI forecasting. FARMS-DNI incorporates both direct and scattered solar radiation within the circumsolar region, resulting in improved day-ahead DNI predictions when integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar). This study integrates FARMS-DNI into the NSRDB algorithm to generate high-resolution DNI data from satellite resources. Our findings reveal that FARMS-DNI effectively mitigates the substantial DNI overestimation present in the conventional NSRDB across surface sites, particularly in conditions categorized as cloudy overcast. Consequently, this innovative model substantially enhances the overall accuracy of the NSRDB.

Xie, Yu↗

Scientific study in solar and plasma physics relative to rocket and balloon projects

The goals of this research are to provide scientific and technical capabilities in the areas of solar and plasma physics contained in research programs and instrumentation development relative to current rocket and balloon projects; to develop flight instrumentation design, flight hardware, and flight program objectives and participate in peer reviews as appropriate; and to participate in solar-terrestrial physics modeling studies and analysis of flight data and provide theoretical investigations as required by these studies.

Wu, S. T.↗

Standard solar model. II - g-modes

The paper presents the g-mode oscillation for a set of modern solar models. Each solar model is based on a single modification or improvement to the physics of a reference solar model. Improvements were made to the nuclear reaction rates, the equation of state, the opacities, and the treatment of the atmosphere. The error in the predicted g-mode periods associated with the uncertainties in the model physics is predicted and the specific sensitivities of the g-mode periods and their period spacings to the different model structures are described. In addition, these models are compared to a sample of published observations. A remarkably good agreement is found between the 'best' solar model and the observations of Hill and Gu (1990).

Guenther, D. B.↗

Standard solar model

A set of solar models have been constructed, each based on a single modification to the physics of a reference solar model. In addition, a model combining several of the improvements has been calculated to provide a best solar model. Improvements were made to the nuclear reaction rates, the equation of state, the opacities, and the treatment of the atmosphere. The impact on both the structure and the frequencies of the low-l p-modes of the model to these improvements are discussed. It is found that the combined solar model, which is based on the best physics available (and does not contain any ad hoc assumptions), reproduces the observed oscillation spectrum (for low-l) within the errors associated with the uncertainties in the model physics (primarily opacities).

Guenther, D. B.↗

Physical properties of solar chromospheric plages. III - Models based on Ca II and Mg II observations

Solar plages are modeled using observations of both the Ca II K and the Mg II h and k lines. A partial-redistribution approach is employed for calculating the line profiles on the basis of a grid of five model chromospheres. The computed integrated emission intensities for the five atmospheric models are compared with observations of six regions on the sun as well as with models of active-chromosphere stars. It is concluded that the basic plage model grid proposed by Shine and Linsky (1974) is still valid when the Mg II lines are included in the analysis and the Ca II and Mg II lines are analyzed using partial-redistribution diagnostics.

Kelch, W. L.↗

Physics of the inner heliosphere 1-10R sub O plasma diagnostics and models

The physics of solar wind flow in the acceleration region and impulsive phenomena in the solar corona is studied. The study of magnetohydrodynamic wave propagation in the corona and the solutions for steady state and time dependent solar wind equations gives insights concerning the physics of the solar wind acceleration region, plasma heating and plasma acceleration processes and the formation of shocks. Also studied is the development of techniques for placing constraints on the mechanisms responsible for coronal heating.

Withbroe, G. L.↗

A two-dimensional solar model

A two-dimensional, nearly flux constant solar atmosphere which includes a physical model of granulation is presented. If the inhomogeneous character of the solar photosphere is neglected in the construction of empirical models, the result is an underestimate of the temperature gradient in the layers below a Rosseland optical depth of 0.5 and an overestimate of the convective flux penetration into the observable layers. The two-dimensional model adequately reproduces the mean limb darkening, the magnitude and center-to-limb variation of the intensity fluctuations, and the rms vertical and horizontal convective velocities.

Nelson, G. D.↗

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Sensitivity of solar g-modes to varying G cosmologies

The sensitivity of the solar g-mode oscillation spectrum to variability in the universal gravitational constant G is described. Solar models in varying G cosmologies were constructed by evolving a zero-age main-sequence stellar model to the Sun's current age, while allowing the value of G to change according to the power law G(t) proportional to t(exp -beta), where Beta approximately equals delta G/GH and H is the Hubble constant. All solar models were constrained to the observed luminosity and radius at the current age of the Sun by adjusting the helium abundance and the mixing-length parameter of the models in the usual way for standard stellar models. Low-l g-mode oscillation periods were calculated for each of the models and compared to the claimed observation of the solar g-mode oscillation spectrum by Hill & Gu (1990). If one accepts Hill & Gu's claims, then within the uncertainties of the physics of the solar model calculation, our models rule out all but (delta G/GH) less than approximately 0.05. In other words, we conclude that G could not have varied by more than 2% over the past 4.5 Gyr, the lifetime of the present-day Sun. This result lends independent support to the validity of the standard solar model.

Guenther, D. B.↗

Coronal Diagnostic Experiment (CODEX)

Understanding solar wind sources and acceleration mechanisms is an overarching solar physics goal. Current models are highly under-constrained due to the limitations of the existing data, particularly in the ~3-10 Rs range. COronal Diagnostic Experiment (CODEX) is designed to deliver the first global, comprehensive data sets that will impose crucial constraints and answer targeted essential questions, including: Are there signatures of hot plasma released into the solar wind from previously closed fields? What are the velocities and temperatures of the density structures that are observed so ubiquitously within streamers and coronal holes? To provide these crucial measurements, NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, in collaboration with the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute, and Italian National Institute for Astrophysics (INAF) will develop a next-generation coronagraph for the International Space Station. This imaging coronagraph uses multiple filters to obtain simultaneous measurements of electron density, temperature, and velocity within a single instrument. This will be the first time all three have been measured simultaneously for this critical field-of-view, and CODEX achieves these measurements multiple times a day.

Jeff Newmark↗

CHUWD-H v1.0: a comprehensive historical hourly weather database for U.S. urban energy system modeling

Reliable and continuous meteorological data are crucial for modeling the responses of energy systems and their components to weather and climate conditions, particularly in densely populated urban areas. However, existing long-term datasets often suffer from spatial and temporal gaps and inconsistencies, posing great challenges for detailed urban energy system modeling and cross-city comparison under realistic weather conditions. Here we introduce the Historical Comprehensive Hourly Urban Weather Database (CHUWD-H) v1.0, a 23-year (1998-2020) gap-free and quality-controlled hourly weather dataset covering 550 weather station locations across all urban areas in the contiguous United States. CHUWD-H v1.0 synthesizes hourly weather observations from stations with outputs from a physics-based solar radiation model and a reanalysis dataset through a multi-step gap filling approach. A 10-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation suggests that the accuracy of this gap filling approach surpasses that of conventional gap filling methods. Designed primarily for urban energy system modeling, CHUWD-H v1.0 should also support historical urban meteorological and climate studies, including the validation and evaluation of urban climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Higher Flux from the Young Sun as an Explanation for Warm Temperatures for Early Earth and Mars

Observations indicate that the Earth was at least warm enough for liquid water to exist as far back as 4 Gyr ago, namely, as early as half a billion years after the formation of the Earth; in fact, there is evidence suggesting that Earth may have been even warmer then than it is now. These relatively warm temperatures required on early Earth are in apparent contradiction to the dimness of the early Sun predicted by the standard solar models. This problem has generally been explained by assuming that Earth's early atmosphere contained huge amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), resulting in a large enough greenhouse effect to counteract the effect of a dimmer Sun. However, recent work places an upper limit of 0.04 bar on the partial pressure of CO2 in the period from 2.75 to 2.2 Gyr ago, based on the absence of siderite in paleosols; this casts doubt on the viability of a strong CO2 greenhouse effect on early Earth. The existence of liquid water on early Mars has been even more of a puzzle; even the maximum possible CO2 greenhouse effect cannot yield warm enough Martian surface temperatures. These problems can be resolved simultaneously for both Earth and Mars, if the early Sun was brighter than predicted by the standard solar models. This could be accomplished if the early Sun was slightly more massive than it is now, i.e., if the solar wind was considerably stronger in the past than at present. A slightly more massive young Sun would have left fingerprints on the internal structure of the present Sun. Today, helioseismic observations exist that can measure the internal structure of the Sun with very high precision. The task undertaken here was to compute solar models with the highest precision possible at this time, starting with slightly greater initial masses. These were evolved to the present solar age, where comparisons with the helioseismic observations could be made. Our computations also yielded the time evolution of the solar flux at the planets - a key input to the climates of early Earth and Mars. Early solar mass loss is not the only influence that can alter the internal structure of the present Sun. There are minor uncertainties in the physics of the solar models and in the key observed solar parameters that also affect the present Sun's internal structure. It was therefore imperative to obtain an understanding of the effects of these other uncertainties, in order to disentangle them from the fingerprints that might be left by early solar mass loss. From these considerations, our work was divided into two parts: (1) We first computed the evolution of standard solar models with input parameters varied within their uncertainties, to determine their effect on the observable helioseismic quantities; (2) We then computed non-standard solar models with higher initial masses to test against the helioseismological observations.

Sackmann, I.-Juliana↗

STITCH: A Subgrid-Scale Model for Energy Buildup in the Solar Corona

The solar corona routinely exhibits explosive activity, in particular coronal mass ejections and their accompanying eruptive ares, that have global-scale consequences. These events and their smaller counterparts, coronal jets, originate in narrow, sinuous lament channels. The key processes that form and evolve the channels operate on still smaller spatial scales and much longer time scales, culminating in a vast separation of characteristic lengths and times that govern these explosive phenomena. In this article, we describe implementation and tests of an efficient subgrid-scale model for generating eruptive structures in magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) coronal simulations. STITCH {STatistical InjecTion of Condensed Helicity { is a physics-based, reduced representation of helicity condensation: a process wherein small-scale vortical surface convection forms ubiquitous current sheets, and pervasive reconnection across the sheets mediates an inverse cascade of magnetic helicity and free energy, thereby forming the lament channels. We have developed a formalism, STITCH, that abstracts these complex processes into a single term in Ohm's law and the induction equation that directly injects tangential magnetic flux into the low corona. We show that our approach is in very good agreement with a full helicity-condensation calculation that treats all of the dynamics explicitly, while enabling substantial reductions in temporal duration and spatial resolution. In addition, we illustrate the flexibility of STITCH at forming localized lament channels and at energizing complex surface flux distributions that have sinuous boundaries. STITCH is simple to implement and computationally ecient, making it a powerful technique for physics-based modeling of solar eruptive events.

J T Dahlin↗

Solar nutrinos

The topics covered include: an overview of the subject of solar neutrinos, a brief summary of the theory of stellar evolution, a description of the main sources of solar neutrinos, a brief summary of the results of the Brookhaven C1-37 experiment, an anaysis of the principal solar neutrino experiments, and a discussion of how solar neutrino experiments can be used to detect the collapse of stars in the Galaxy. A description of how the Ga-71 experiment can be used to decide whether the origin of the present discrepancy between theory and observation lies in conventional solar models or conventional physics is presented.

Bahcall, J. N.↗