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DOE OSTI2026

Toward an AI-Powered Software Pipeline for Real-Time Tracking and Analysis of Wildfire and Smoke

Real-time tracking of wildfires and smoke is crucial for effective response, minimizing damage, protecting lives, and efficiently managing resources during fire emergencies. We develop a web-based AI-powered pipeline that detects wildfires in aerial video and estimates deployment-relevant behavior metrics, including cumulative burned area, burned-area growth rate, fire spread direction, and smoke dispersion. The system combines a YOLO-based detector with YCbCr-based fire segmentation, HSV-based smoke segmentation, Farneback optical flow, and centroid-based spatiotemporal tracking. Using ground sampling distance (GSD), pixel-level fire masks are converted to physical burned-area measurements by correlating fire pixel counts with camera altitude and tilt angle. We benchmark YOLO variants and non-YOLO baselines (GoogLeNet, CNN, DBN, Autoencoder, U-Net, and AlexNet) on the IEEE FLAME dataset and a newly created aerial frame dataset, Wildfire-DB. Cross-dataset evaluation uses a strict threshold-transfer protocol: decision thresholds are selected on FLAME validation and transferred unchanged to Wildfire-DB to quantify generalization under domain shift. YOLOv6 achieves the strongest cross-dataset frame-level fire detection on Wildfire-DB (ROC-AUC 0.8200, PR-AUC 0.8044, and transferred-threshold F1 0.7596). For tracking-oriented deployment requiring oriented localization, YOLO11-OBB provides the most reliable cross-dataset behavior among OBB-capable models while remaining computationally feasible. To analyze the feasibility of UAV deployment, we further measure inference efficiency using synchronized GPU and CPU power logs on a fixed workload of 1569 frames. YOLO-family models process the video in 5.73–12.47 seconds with net energy of 1247.28–1775.39 J, substantially lower latency and energy than heavier classification and reconstruction baselines. Overall, model optimality depends on operational objectives: YOLOv6 is best for cross-dataset detection robustness, whereas YOL...

Color segmentation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robustness of pairwise kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect to optical-cluster-selection bias

The pairwise kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect measures both the pairwise motion between galaxy groups and clusters and the amount of gas within them, providing a tracer for cosmic growth. To interpret the cosmological information in the kSZ measurements, it is crucial to understand the optical-cluster-selection bias on the kSZ observables. Line-of-sight structures that contribute to both the optical observable (e.g., richness) and the cosmological signal can induce a correlation between these two quantities at a fixed cluster mass. The selection bias arising from this correlation is a key systematic effect for cosmological analyses. For cosmological observables such as cluster abundance and weak lensing, controlling this selection bias may help explain the tension between the DES-Y1 results and the Planck constraints. In order to test for a kSZ effect equivalent of such a bias, we adopted an alternative mock richness based on galaxy counts within cylindrical volumes along the line of sight. We applied the cylindrical count method to hydrodynamical simulations across a wide range of galaxy-selection criteria, assigning richness consistent with DES-Y1 to the mock clusters. When comparing optically selected clusters to mass-selected halos, we find no significant bias on pairwise kSZ signals, pairwise velocities, or optical depth within our uncertainty limits of approximately 16, 10, and 8%, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cr plasma-material-interaction in PISCES-RF: D thermal release, retention, and erosion

Pure chromium (Cr) targets were exposed to high-flux deuterium (D) plasmas in the Pisces-RF linear plasma device, and measurements of D retention, release, and erosion were subsequently performed. Post-exposure D retention was quantified using temperature-programmed desorption on Cr targets irradiated by 50 eV ions over a broad range of exposure temperatures (423–873 K) and ion fluences (3 × 10 24 – 3 × 10 26 m −2 ). The retained D inventory was observed to decrease rapidly with increased exposure temperature, from approximately ∼7 × 10 20 m −2 at ∼ 420 K, to then saturate near ∼ 10 20 m −2 for exposure temperatures above ∼550 K. Separately, at fixed exposure temperature (∼450 K), D retention was found to have only a weak dependence on increasing ion fluence. Lastly, the erosion of Cr in D plasma was investigated for ion impact energies in the range 40 ≤ E i ≤ 250 eV. Erosion was inferred using optical emission spectroscopy (OES) from the ratio of emission lines (Cr I (425.4 nm)/D I (656.1 nm)) measured close to the target. Conversion of the OES yield data to net erosion yield was made with singular ion energy target mass-loss measurements. These net erosion yield data were then further corrected to obtain gross erosion yield by accounting for a re-deposition factor, computed using a simple model. The gross erosion yield is found to be 2–4 times lower than predicted by SDTrimSP, consistent with that typically observed for light-ion sputtering under high-flux plasma conditions.

Chromium↗

DOE OSTI2026

Entropy-defect synergy for dual luminescence mechanism in spinel: Time-resolved anti-counterfeiting and fingerprint visualization

Multimodal luminescent materials, while promising for anti-counterfeiting, often lack dynamic time-dependent responses and controllable spatial distribution, limiting their encryption capabilities in the spatiotemporal dimension. Here, this work presents a coordinated control strategy based on entropy and defect engineering, and uses a backpropagation (BP) neural network for material screening to successfully prepare spinel Mg 0.8 (Fe 0.04 Co 0.04 Ni 0.04 Cu 0.04 Zn 0.04 )Cr 2 O 4 (MgA 5 CO) phosphors with time-dependent dynamic luminescence behavior. This phosphor simultaneously activated the d-d transition luminescence (∼618 nm) derived from Co 2+ /Cr 3+ and the defect luminescence (∼398 nm) related to zinc vacancies (V Zn ) in a single-phase solid solution. The phosphor exhibits a time-dependent color evolution from pink to purple under fixed-wavelength excitation, due to the different excited-state dynamics and decay lifetimes associated with the d-d transition and defect luminescence. Structural characterization and spectral analysis confirmed the existence of V Zn and its significant role in defect luminescence process. The fluorescent and dynamic luminescent properties of entropy-based spinel oxide enable its use in advanced anti-counterfeiting applications like fingerprint recognition and color-changing dedicated anti-counterfeiting mark, showing promise in high-end and time-dynamic anti-counterfeiting fields. This research not only developed a new type of fluorescent dynamic anti-counterfeiting material, but also provided a new idea for constructing advanced optical functional materials with multiple luminescence mechanisms.

Defect project↗

DOE OSTI2026

Universal Relationship between Limiting Current and Electrochemical Transport Properties in Malonate-Based Polymer Electrolytes

There is considerable interest in developing high-performance electrolytes for rechargeable lithium batteries. For practical applications, the electrolyte must support large dc currents. However, the parameters most often reported in the literature, conductivity, κ, and current fraction, ρ + , reflect ion transport in the limit of infinitesimal currents. In this limit, the efficacy of an electrolyte is given by the product κρ + . The limiting current density, i lim , is the maximum current density that can be applied across an electrolyte; the cell voltage diverges if the applied current density exceeds ilim. This parameter reflects ion transport in the limit of large dc currents and is therefore of practical interest. It would therefore be convenient if i lim could be predicted from measurements of κρ + . In order to explore this possibility, we studied six malonate-based polymers and PEO at a fixed salt concentration (r = 0.08) and temperature (90°C) using symmetric cells with planar electrodes. Unfortunately, there is no correlation between ilim and κρ + . When the applied current density, i, is less than ilim, the cell voltage approaches a stable plateau, ϕ plateau . Here, we found a linear dependence between i and thickness-normalized plateau potential, ϕ plateau L –1 , irrespective of the magnitude of the applied current. In all seven polymer electrolytes, we found a linear correlation between ilim and the slopes of these lines, σ. In other words, measurements of σ can be used to predict the limiting current.

Jana, Rounak [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2026

Galaxy Size and Rotation Curve Diversity in ΛCDM with Baryons

The observed rotation curves of dwarf galaxies exhibit significant diversity at fixed halo mass, challenging galaxy formation within the cold dark matter (CDM) model. Previous cosmological galaxy formation simulations with baryonic physics fail to reproduce the full diversity of rotation curves, suggesting that there is a flaw in baryonic feedback models, observational bias, or that an alternative to CDM must be invoked. In this work, we use the Marvelous Massive Dwarf zoom-in simulations, a suite of high-resolution dwarf simulations with M 200 ∼ 10 10 –10 11 M ⊙ and M * ∼ 10 7 –10 9 M ⊙ , designed to target the mass range where the galaxy rotation curve diversity is maximized, i.e., between and 100 km s −1 . We add to this a set of low-mass galaxies from the Marvel Dwarf Zoom Volumes to extend the galaxy mass range to lower values. Our fiducial star formation and feedback models produce simulated dwarfs with a broader range of rotation curve shapes, similar to observations. These simulations both create dark matter cores via baryonic feedback, reproducing the slower-rising rotation curves, while also allowing for compact galaxies and steeply rising rotation curves. Our simulated dwarfs also reproduce the observed size–M * relation, including scatter, producing both extended and compact dwarfs for the first time in simulated field dwarfs. However, the slowly rising and high baryon mass fraction, as well as the steeply rising and low baryon mass fraction, remain missing. We explore star formation and feedback models and conclude that previous simulations may have had feedback that was too strong to produce compact dwarfs.

Cruz, Akaxia [Flatiron Institute, New York, NY (Un↗

DOE OSTI2026

High Pressure X-ray Diffraction and Equation of State of Hydrazine

Synchrotron X-ray diffraction has been used to investigate the structure and equation of state (EOS) of hydrazine (N 2 H 4 ) up to 54.3 GPa at 298 K. The diffraction patterns could be fit to a monoclinic unit-cell structure and put strong constraints on previously reported phase transitions documented by vibrational spectroscopy over this pressure range. Pressure–volume ( P–V ) data were fit using a Vinet EOS, yielding parameters: V 0 = 45.2 Å 3 /molecule (fixed), K 0 = 11.8(7) GPa, and K 0 ′ = 6.5(2). Previously measured high-pressure vibrational frequency shifts were used to estimate the vibrational free energy and model P–V–T isotherms from 0 to 1200 K. The results of the P–V–T isotherms are compared to existing shock Hugoniot data on hydrazine and 298 K isotherms for assemblages of possible decomposition products. This comparison suggests dissociation at high density under shock loading. Good correspondence was found between the static lattice EOS as calculated by the model and the previously reported EOS as calculated by density functional theory. Finally, these results resolve existing uncertainties about the EOS and crystal symmetry of hydrazine at high pressure and provide valuable baseline information on this important energetic material.

diffraction↗

DOE OSTI2026

Purpose, Design, and Analysis of the NSTX-U Centerstack Casing Lateral Support Shims

The National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) centerstack casing surrounds the central magnet core of NSTXU. It provides the inner vacuum boundary of the plasma chamber and supports the radially inboard plasma facing components lining the plasma chamber. The casing is supported like a cantilever, fixed at the lower flange by a connection to the TF Bundle through a G-10 ring. It is flexibly supported at the top by bellows, and insulated shims intended to react the largest part of the inventory of the disruption loads at the upper support, thereby protecting the upper and lower connections from excessive loads. A large part of the qualification of the casing and tiles requires addressing and quantifying disruption loads. These have been estimated based on extensions of the behavior of NSTX during its run period roughly 15 years ago. Structural qualification of the Upgrade used these estimates of the loading as input to calculations to demonstrate adequacy for a “most probable” disruption. The estimates are included in a requirements document to guide conservative design of all components loaded by disruptions. However, the changes made for the upgrade made the extrapolation of disruption behavior uncertain. Disruptions include axisymmetric loading from axisymmetric currents induced in the vessel shells. In addition, more complex currents called Halo currents are a result of plasma poloidal currents impinging on the casing. The halo currents add another layer of uncertain behavior and net lateral loading to the casing. As a result, NSTX-U is equipped with a number of instruments intended to assess the nature and severity of disruptions. The casing shims are required for lateral support of the casing, but these have also been converted to load cells to provide another measure of the magnitude of symmetric and asymmetric loading. Some of the logic in the development of the requirements document are presented. Electromagnetic analysis of axisymmetric and halo loading is described. Global simulations of the casing transient dynamic response, and local analysis and testing of the shim/load cell are included. The shim load cells and other instrumentation will be an important guide in planning NSTX-U experiments beyond its next run period expected in late 2026 or early 2027.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development of Hydrogen Burner for FT4000® Aeroderivative Engine - Final Report

This report details an effort to develop a retrofittable fuel/air injector for the FT4000® aeroderivative gas turbine that enables use of hydrogen as a carbon-free fuel for efficient power generation. The FT4000 engine’s low-NOx combustor was developed by Pratt & Whitney and RTX Technology Research Center with core technology from the Pratt & Whitney PW4000 turbofan aircraft engine. The current FT4000 production engine operates on either natural gas or No. 2 fuel oil with water injection to achieve high thermal efficiency and low emissions. This engine is fielded by Mitsubishi Power Aero and delivers 70 MW of power with a simple-cycle efficiency of over 41% when operating with wet compression. The work reported here advances the technology readiness level of the FT4000 combustor for operation with hydrogen, starting with an experimental assessment of the current production hardware with increasing hydrogen content mixed with natural gas and ending with improved nozzle concepts for fully robust operation with 100% hydrogen. High-pressure single-sector combustor rig tests have been completed, demonstrating the ability for the dual fuel nozzle to operate an FT4000 combustor on 100% hydrogen with low nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Metal temperature measurements and video images of the flame structure from zero to 100% hydrogen highlight opportunities to improve the fuel nozzle robustness for high hydrogen conditions. The design of new fuel/air mixer concepts to improve durability and operability with high hydrogen levels was also completed. A total of eleven new concepts were developed and analyzed, ranging from modifications to the bill-of-materials nozzle to fully clean sheet designs. The concepts were evaluated with non-reacting and reacting flow evaluations to assess the performance of the new hardware designs. Non-reacting tests included Phase Doppler Particle Analysis (PDPA) for droplet size and velocity, mechanical patternation for liquid water flux, and planar laser induced fluorescence (PLIF) with acetone-seeding for gaseous fuel/air mixing characterization. Five scaled candidate fuel nozzle designs, in addition to a scaled bill-of-materials nozzle, were then successfully evaluated in an atmospheric pressure burner rig. The nozzles were evaluated for performance with natural gas, hydrogen/natural gas blends, and pure hydrogen. For 100% hydrogen, the nozzles were evaluated with and without water injection. Optical and infrared imaging of the flame and fuel nozzle was captured. NOx emissions were sampled from fixed emissions probes. The results show measurable differences between the various designs, and the data was used to down-select the two most promising designs to advance to future full pressure rig testing. Results from this study have cleared the current production FT4000 engines with dual fuel nozzles to operate at baseload power on blends of hydrogen mixed with natural gas and water. Two promising nozzle designs have been developed to enable fully robust operation with up to 100% hydrogen. These nozzles require validation at full baseload operating conditions before they can be introduced to the field.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Dense nuclear matter equation of state from heavy-ion collisions

The nuclear equation of state (EOS) is at the center of numerous theoretical and experimental efforts in nuclear physics. With advances in microscopic theories for nuclear interactions, the availability of experiments probing nuclear matter under conditions not reached before, endeavors to develop sophisticated and reliable transport simulations to interpret these experiments, and the advent of multi-messenger astronomy, the next decade will bring new opportunities for determining the nuclear matter EOS, elucidating its dependence on density, temperature, and isospin asymmetry. Among controlled terrestrial experiments, collisions of heavy nuclei at intermediate beam energies (from a few tens of MeV/nucleon to about 25 GeV/nucleon in the fixed-target frame) probe the widest ranges of baryon density and temperature, enabling studies of nuclear matter from a few tenths to about 5 times the nuclear saturation density and for temperatures from a few to well above a hundred MeV, respectively. Collisions of neutron-rich isotopes further bring the opportunity to probe effects due to the isospin asymmetry. However, capitalizing on the enormous scientific effort aimed at uncovering the dense nuclear matter EOS, both at RHIC and at FRIB as well as at other international facilities, depends on the continued development of state-of-the-art hadronic transport simulations. Furthermore, this white paper highlights the essential role that heavy-ion collision experiments and hadronic transport simulations play in understanding strong interactions in dense nuclear matter, with an emphasis on how these efforts can be used together with microscopic approaches and neutron star studies to uncover the nuclear EOS.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Dark Energy Survey supernova program: a reanalysis of cosmology results and evidence for evolving dark energy with an updated Type Ia supernova calibration

We present improved cosmological constraints from a re-analysis of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 5-year sample of Type Ia supernovae (DES-SN5YR). This re-analysis includes an improved photometric cross-calibration, recent white dwarf observations to cross-calibrate between DES and low-redshift surveys, retraining the salt3 light-curve model and fixing a numerical approximation in the host-galaxy colour law. Our fully recalibrated sample, which we call DES-Dovekie, comprises ~1600 likely Type Ia SNe from DES and ~200 low-redshift SNe from other surveys. With DES-Dovekie, we obtain Ω m = 0.330 ± 0.015 in flat Lambda-cold dark matter (⁠ΛCDM) which changes Ω m by –0.022 compared to DES-SN5YR. Combining DES-Dovekie with cosmic microwave background data from Planck, Atacama Cosmology Telescope, and South Pole Telescope and the DESI DR2 measurements in a flat CDM cosmology, we find ω 0 = –0.803 ± 0.054 and ω a = –0.72 ± 0.21⁠. Our results hold a significance of 3.2σ, reduced from 4.2σ for DES-SN5YR, to reject the null hypothesis that the data are compatible with the cosmological constant. This significance is equivalent to a Bayesian model preference odds of approximately 5:1 in favour of the flat ω 0 ω a CDM model. Using generally accepted thresholds for model preference, our updated data exhibits only a weak preference for evolving dark energy.

dark energy↗