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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the propagation of parametric uncertainty on flux balance analysis

Flux balance analysis (FBA) and associated techniques operating on stoichiometric genome-scale metabolic models play a central role in quantifying metabolic flows and constraining feasible phenotypes. At the heart of these methods lie two important assumptions: (i) the biomass precursors and energy requirements neither change in response to growth conditions nor environmental/genetic perturbations, and (ii) metabolite production and consumption rates are equal at all times (i.e., steady-state). Despite the stringency of these two assumptions, FBA has been shown to be surprisingly robust at predicting cellular phenotypes. In this paper, we formally assess the impact of these two assumptions on FBA results by quantifying how uncertainty in biomass reaction coefficients, and departures from steady-state due to temporal fluctuations could propagate to FBA results. In the first case, conditional sampling of parameter space is required to re-weigh the biomass reaction so as the molecular weight remains equal to 1 g mmol –1 , and in the second case, metabolite (and elemental) pool conservation must be imposed under temporally varying conditions. Results confirm the importance of enforcing the aforementioned constraints and explain the robustness of FBA biomass yield predictions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Process Interactions Can Change Process Ranking in a Coupled Complex System Under Process Model and Parametric Uncertainty

For a complex hydrologic system with multiple processes and process interactions, global sensitivity analysis is often used to identify important or influential parameters for model development and improvement. The identification is complicated by process model uncertainty, when a system process can be represented by multiple process models. This study develops a new total-effect process sensitivity index to identify influential processes under model uncertainty. This is done by extending Sobol's total-effect parameter sensitivity index for one system model to total-effect process sensitivity index for multiple system models to account for uncertainty in process models and model parameters. The total-effect process sensitivity index includes not only the first-order process sensitivity index for measuring the importance of individual processes but also higher-order indices that account for process interactions. The total-effect process sensitivity index can identify an influential process that itself and its interactions with other processes influence a model output. Here, the total-effect process sensitivity index is applied to two numerical examples: (a) Sobol's G*-functions with analytical solutions of first-order and total-effect process sensitivity indices, and (b) groundwater flow models with interactions between recharge, geology, and snowmelt processes. The second evaluation shows that, due to second-order and higher-order process interactions, the first-order and total-effect process sensitivity indices give different process ranking. It is thus necessary to estimate both first-order and total-effect process sensitivity indices to appreciate the difference between the first-order impact of a process alone and the overall total-effect impact of the process itself and its interactions with other processes on a model output.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dose Exceedance Distance Sensitivity Based on Parametric Uncertainty

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) collaborated with the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) Office of Nuclear Security and Incident Response (NSIR) and Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES) to investigate the reasonable variability in the estimation of dose exceedance distances. SNL performed calculations using the MACCS code to elucidate the sensitivity of dose exceedance distances to variations in user input parameters.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
NASA NTRS1990

Robust tracking of a flexible spacecraft subject to induced disturbances and parametric uncertainties

A variable structure control technique combined with an operator spline for bilinear systems is implemented to a fast moving deformable structure for purposes of achieving robust tracking performance. The control torque applied to the structure is based on estimates of the structure parameters and on upper bounds of the model errors. For a rapid rotation of the deformable structure, the elastic response can be modeled by oscillators driven by angular acceleration, where stiffness and damping coefficients are also angular velocity and acceleration dependent. By transforming this 'slew-driven' elastic dynamics into a bilinear form, an operator spline can be constructed, that gives a low order estimate of the induced disturbance. An upper bound between the estimated deformation and the unknown exact deformation is also generated, which can be used where required in the sliding control correction.

Karray, Fakhreddine↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

HIFiRE Flight 2 Unstart Reliability Analysis

The objective of this work was to assess the unstart reliability of the HIFiRE Flight 2 system. To do this, a quantification of margins and uncertainties framework was used for comparing model predictions of the predicted combustion induced shock location to the predicted last stable shock location within the isolator. Uncertainty sources included parametric uncertainty in the flight conditions, the heat release model, and turbulence modeling, as well as model verification errors. Additionally, an estimate of model-form uncertainty was established by comparing the model to measured ground test data. A computationally efficient non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach was used to propagate parametric uncertainty through the computational flu-ids dynamics models of both the ground test configuration and the flight vehicle. Compared to direct-connect ground test data, computational fluid dynamics predictions yielded about two duct heights of model-form uncertainty. This was applied to a prediction of flight vehicle unstart margin at the Mach 6.5 flight condition. Building up all of the computational model uncertainty, including parametric uncertainty, verification errors, and the determined model-form uncertainty, a 95% probability level based confidence ratio, or a ratio of total uncertainty to a statistical margin measure, was found to be 0.31 for the flight system.

Thomas K West↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Minimum-Variance Control Allocation Considering Parametric Model Uncertainty

The control allocation problem was investigated for linear dynamical systems with known parametric uncertainty. Minimizing a cost function that penalizes the variance of the error in achieving commanded forces and moments on the vehicle resulted in a special case of the weighted pseudo-inverse allocator. Rather than an engineer designing the weighting matrix, it is computed from the covariances of the control effectiveness parameters. This minimum-variance allocator balances the effectiveness of the control inputs against the corresponding levels of uncertainty. The approach was demonstrated using simulations of aircraft with realistic uncertainty levels operating in open-loop and closed-loop configurations. Results showed that when model uncertainty is known, significant, and unevenly distributed amongst the controls, the minimum-variance allocator more often achieves the intended forces and moments on the vehicle in comparison to other allocators, which can lead to increased performance, reliability, and safety during flight tests. The cost for this robustness is a diminished achievable moment space for the vehicle.

Control allocation↗
NASA NTRS2011

Assessment of Radiative Heating Uncertainty for Hyperbolic Earth Entry

This paper investigates the shock-layer radiative heating uncertainty for hyperbolic Earth entry, with the main focus being a Mars return. In Part I of this work, a baseline simulation approach involving the LAURA Navier-Stokes code with coupled ablation and radiation is presented, with the HARA radiation code being used for the radiation predictions. Flight cases representative of peak-heating Mars or asteroid return are de ned and the strong influence of coupled ablation and radiation on their aerothermodynamic environments are shown. Structural uncertainties inherent in the baseline simulations are identified, with turbulence modeling, precursor absorption, grid convergence, and radiation transport uncertainties combining for a +34% and ..24% structural uncertainty on the radiative heating. A parametric uncertainty analysis, which assumes interval uncertainties, is presented. This analysis accounts for uncertainties in the radiation models as well as heat of formation uncertainties in the flow field model. Discussions and references are provided to support the uncertainty range chosen for each parameter. A parametric uncertainty of +47.3% and -28.3% is computed for the stagnation-point radiative heating for the 15 km/s Mars-return case. A breakdown of the largest individual uncertainty contributors is presented, which includes C3 Swings cross-section, photoionization edge shift, and Opacity Project atomic lines. Combining the structural and parametric uncertainty components results in a total uncertainty of +81.3% and ..52.3% for the Mars-return case. In Part II, the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are applied to 1960s era shock-tube and constricted-arc experimental cases. It is shown that experiments contain shock layer temperatures and radiative ux values relevant to the Mars-return cases of present interest. Comparisons between the predictions and measurements, accounting for the uncertainty in both, are made for a range of experiments. A measure of comparison quality is de ned, which consists of the percent overlap of the predicted uncertainty bar with the corresponding measurement uncertainty bar. For nearly all cases, this percent overlap is greater than zero, and for most of the higher temperature cases (T >13,000 K) it is greater than 50%. These favorable comparisons provide evidence that the baseline computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are adequate for Mars-return simulations. In Part III, the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I are applied to EAST shock-tube cases. These experimental cases contain wavelength dependent intensity measurements in a wavelength range that covers 60% of the radiative intensity for the 11 km/s, 5 m radius flight case studied in Part I. Comparisons between the predictions and EAST measurements are made for a range of experiments. The uncertainty analysis presented in Part I is applied to each prediction, and comparisons are made using the metrics defined in Part II. The agreement between predictions and measurements is excellent for velocities greater than 10.5 km/s. Both the wavelength dependent and wavelength integrated intensities agree within 30% for nearly all cases considered. This agreement provides confidence in the computational technique and uncertainty analysis presented in Part I, and provides further evidence that this approach is adequate for Mars-return simulations. Part IV of this paper reviews existing experimental data that include the influence of massive ablation on radiative heating. It is concluded that this existing data is not sufficient for the present uncertainty analysis. Experiments to capture the influence of massive ablation on radiation are suggested as future work, along with further studies of the radiative precursor and improvements in the radiation properties of ablation products.

Johnston, Christopher O.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying structural errors in cloud condensation nuclei activity from reduced representation of aerosol size distributions

Aerosol effects on clouds and radiation are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in radiative forcing relative to the pre-industrial atmosphere. While previous studies have assessed the impact of parametric uncertainty on modeled forcing, structural errors from the numerical representation of particle distributions have not been well quantified. Here we present a framework for quantifying error in aerosol size distributions and cloud condensation nuclei activity, which we apply to the widely used 4-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). Box model predictions from the MAM4 are evaluated against the Particle Monte Carlo Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (PartMC-MOSAIC), a benchmark model that tracks the evolution of individual particles. We show that size distributions simulated by MAM4 diverge from those simulated by PartMC-MOSAIC after only a few hours of aging by condensation and coagulation in polluted conditions, which leads to large errors in modeled cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. We find that differences between MAM4 and PartMC-MOSAIC are largest under polluted conditions, where the size distribution evolves rapidly though aging by condensation of semi-volatile substances and coagulation among particles. These findings suggest that structural error in modeled aerosol properties contributes to the large inter-model variability in aerosol radiative forcing.

Fierce, Laura M.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Fixed-Order Mixed Norm Designs for Building Vibration Control

This study investigates the use of H2, mu-synthesis, and mixed H2/mu methods to construct full order controllers and optimized controllers of fixed dimensions. The benchmark problem definition is first extended to include uncertainty within the controller bandwidth in the form of parametric uncertainty representative of uncertainty in the natural frequencies of the design model. The sensitivity of H2 design to unmodeled dynamics and parametric uncertainty is evaluated for a range of controller levels of authority. Next, mu-synthesis methods are applied to design full order compensators that are robust to both unmodeled dynamics and to parametric uncertainty. Finally, a set of mixed H2/mu compensators are designed which are optimized for a fixed compensator dimension. These mixed norm designs recover the H2 design performance levels while providing the same levels of robust stability as the mu designs. It is shown that designing with the mixed norm approach permits higher levels of controller authority for which the H2 designs are destabilizing. The benchmark problem is that of an active tendon system. The controller designs are all based on the use of acceleration feedback.

Whorton, Mark S.↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Study of Fixed-Order Mixed Norm Designs for a Benchmark Problem in Structural Control

This study investigates the use of H2, p-synthesis, and mixed H2/mu methods to construct full-order controllers and optimized controllers of fixed dimensions. The benchmark problem definition is first extended to include uncertainty within the controller bandwidth in the form of parametric uncertainty representative of uncertainty in the natural frequencies of the design model. The sensitivity of H2 design to unmodelled dynamics and parametric uncertainty is evaluated for a range of controller levels of authority. Next, mu-synthesis methods are applied to design full-order compensators that are robust to both unmodelled dynamics and to parametric uncertainty. Finally, a set of mixed H2/mu compensators are designed which are optimized for a fixed compensator dimension. These mixed norm designs recover the H, design performance levels while providing the same levels of robust stability as the u designs. It is shown that designing with the mixed norm approach permits higher levels of controller authority for which the H, designs are destabilizing. The benchmark problem is that of an active tendon system. The controller designs are all based on the use of acceleration feedback.

Whorton, Mark S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Comparison of Control Allocation Methods in the Presence of Parametric Model Uncertainty

When allocating redundant effectors to virtual control commands, linear (generalized inverse) allocators have historically been used on aircraft and spacecraft. While simple to implement, generalized inverses are unable to realize a significant portion of the attainable moments. To address this drawback, the control allocation problem can also be formulated as a linear programming or quadratic programming problem and solved using convex optimization based solvers. These approaches have been shown to access a larger set of attainable moments, however, little work has been done to understand the performance of convex optimization-based control allocation in the presence of parametric model uncertainty. This paper seeks to compare the performance of several control allocation approaches, including two forms of generalized inverse allocators, the pseudo inverse and minimum-variance, and the linear programming and quadratic programming approach in the presence of parametric model uncertainty. The performance of these four allocators were tested on an aircraft model in the presence of realistic parametric model uncertainty and the convex optimization approaches were shown to outperform the generalized inverses.

Luke J Miller↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison between Hayabusa 2 Spectral Measurements and Simulations

Recent Hayabusa 2 spectral measurements are compared with state-of-the-art shock-layer radiation simulations resulting from the LAURA/HARA code suite. These simulations include coupled ablation, which accounts for the injection of ablation products into the flowfield, and coupled radiation, which accounts for radiative energy loss in the flowfield. To enable the cou- pled ablation simulations, a best-estimate model is developed for Hayabusa’s carbon-phenolic ablator based on available published information. The comparison between the simulations and measurements focuses on three atomic nitrogen lines, two atomic oxygen lines, one atomic hydrogen line, and the CN Violet band system. Parametric uncertainties are evaluated for these features using a recently developed capability in LAURA/HARA. These uncertainties capture the impact of flowfield and radiation modeling uncertainties on the observed radiation simulations, and include the impact of coupled radiation and ablation product emission. The resulting parametric uncertainties range from 50 to over 100% for the atomic lines, and 80% for CN Violet. Uncertainties in flowfield kinetics and non-Boltzmann modeling provide the dominant contribution to these uncertainties. For the atomic nitrogen and oxygen lines, com- parisons between the nominal simulations and measurements show agreement well within these simulation uncertainty bounds, with the measurements within 20% of the nominal simulation over most of the trajectory, and within 10% at peak emission. This excellent agreement is un- precedented for observed radiation measurements of atomic lines, where previous Stardust and Hayabusa 1 comparisons were significantly worse. The improved agreement for these Hayabusa 2 comparisons is both the result of improved measurement quality and enhanced flowfield and radiation modeling. For the ablation product emission from the 656 nm atomic hydrogen line, the agreement between measurements and simulations is within ±20% for all trajectory points except one outlier. This good comparison is surprising considering this species depends on the ablation rate and is shown to have strong wake contribution, which both contribute to the large ≈±70% parametric uncertainty. For the ablation product emission from CN Violet, the simulations over-predict the measurements by over a factor of two early in the trajectory, with the comparison improving later in the trajectory. This disagreement for CN Violet is consistent with the ≈±80% parametric uncertainty bounds evaluated for the simulations. To utilize the excellent agreement between the atomic line simulations and measurements in the assessment of the radiative heating margin for a future flight vehicle, the flowfield property binning (FPB) approach is applied. Using the Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry System (EES) as an example, the combination of the excellent Hayabusa comparisons and the FPB analysis justify nearly a 10% reduction in the radiative heating margin from an assumed baseline margin of 30%. This direct quantitative link between observed radiation measurements and the radia- tive heating margin of future flight vehicles demonstrates the value of these observed radiation measurements.

Shock-Layer Radiative Heating↗