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At least 37 records · Page 2

Uncertainty Modeling for Robustness Analysis of Control Upset Prevention and Recovery Systems

Formal robustness analysis of aircraft control upset prevention and recovery systems could play an important role in their validation and ultimate certification. Such systems (developed for failure detection, identification, and reconfiguration, as well as upset recovery) need to be evaluated over broad regions of the flight envelope and under extreme flight conditions, and should include various sources of uncertainty. However, formulation of linear fractional transformation (LFT) models for representing system uncertainty can be very difficult for complex parameter-dependent systems. This paper describes a preliminary LFT modeling software tool which uses a matrix-based computational approach that can be directly applied to parametric uncertainty problems involving multivariate matrix polynomial dependencies. Several examples are presented (including an F-16 at an extreme flight condition, a missile model, and a generic example with numerous crossproduct terms), and comparisons are given with other LFT modeling tools that are currently available. The LFT modeling method and preliminary software tool presented in this paper are shown to compare favorably with these methods.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

Parametric Study of a YAV-8B Harrier in Ground Effect Using Time-Dependent Navier-Stokes Computations

Flow simulations using the time-dependent Navier-Stokes equations remain a challenge for several reasons. Principal among them are the difficulty to accurately model complex flows, and the time needed to perform the computations. A parametric study of such complex problems is not considered practical due to the large cost associated with computing many time-dependent solutions. The computation time for each solution must be reduced in order to make a parametric study possible. With successful reduction of computation time, the issue of accuracy, and appropriateness of turbulence models will become more tractable.

Shishir, Pandya↗

A parametric study of dissociation and ionization models at 12 km/sec

Thermochemical nonequilibrium-solution dependence on available models for the chemical reaction rates is examined. Solutions from the Kang and Dunn (1973) reaction-rate set, the Park rate set of 1987, and the Park rate set of 1991 are compared. The blunt-nosed, axisymmetric geometry considered is a 60-deg sphere cone with nose radius of 1.07 m and cicular aft skirt. The nonequilibrium test case is 12 km/sec entry into the earth's atmosphere at 80 km altitude. The model variations are implemented into the Langley aerothermodynamics upwind relaxation algorithm code. While variations in the reaction rates have no effect on the surface pressure distribution and little effect on the convective heating, the effect on degree of ionization and radiative heating can be a factor of three.

Mitcheltree, R. A.↗

Some factors influencing radiation of sound from flow interaction with edges of finite surfaces

Edges of surfaces which are exposed to unsteady flow cause both strictly acoustic effects and hydrodynamic effects, in the form of generation of new hydrodynamic sources in the immediate vicinity of the edge. An analytical model is presented which develops the explicit sound-generation role of the velocity and Mach number of the eddy convection past the edge, and the importance of relative scale lengths of the turbulence, as well as the relative intensity of pressure fluctuations. The Mach number (velocity) effects show that the important paramater is the convection Mach number of the eddies. The effects of turbulence scale lengths, isotropy, and spatial density (separation) are shown to be important in determining the level and spectrum of edge sound radiated for the edge dipole mechanism. Experimental data is presented which provides support for the dipole edge noise model in terms of Mach number (velocity) scaling, parametric dependence on flow field parameter, directivity, and edge diffraction effects.

Hayden, R. E.↗

Numerical experiments in climate stability.

Two semiempirical climate models are formulated as time-dependent problems in order to study the stability of their asymptotic steady state equilibrium solutions to perturbations in internal (in this case, initial) conditions. For fixed external conditions the time-dependent versions of these models exhibit fully transitive behavior to positive perturbations in initial conditions, slight intransivity to negative perturbations up to -18 K, and an ice-covered earth regime is obtained for extremely large negative perturbations in initial temperatures (below -18 K). The parametrization found to be most critical in these models is the albedo-temperature coupling, especially in tropical regions. The temperature albedo parametrization from an intransitive climate model used in a time-dependent form of one of the preceding models is found to be highly sensitive to negative perturbations in both internal and external conditions. Numerical experimentation with these semiempirical models shows the important role of the tropics in maintaining the equilibrium climate and suggests that the radiation balance in equatorial latitudes might have a controlling influence on the equatorward extent of the polar ice cap.

Schneider, S. H.↗

The Minimum-Mass Surface Density of the Solar Nebula using the Disk Evolution Equation

The Hayashi minimum-mass power law representation of the pre-solar nebula (Hayashi 1981, Prog. Theo. Phys.70,35) is revisited using analytic solutions of the disk evolution equation. A new cumulative-planetary-mass-model (an integrated form of the surface density) is shown to predict a smoother surface density compared with methods based on direct estimates of surface density from planetary data. First, a best-fit transcendental function is applied directly to the cumulative planetary mass data with the surface density obtained by direct differentiation. Next a solution to the time-dependent disk evolution equation is parametrically adapted to the planetary data. The latter model indicates a decay rate of r -1/2 in the inner disk followed by a rapid decay which results in a sharper outer boundary than predicted by the minimum mass model. The model is shown to be a good approximation to the finite-size early Solar Nebula and by extension to extra solar protoplanetary disks.

Davis, Sanford S.↗

The Surface Density Distribution in the Solar Nebula

The commonly used minimum mass power law representation of the pre-solar nebula is reanalyzed using a new cumulative-mass-model. This model predicts a smoother surface density approximation compared with methods based on direct computation of surface density. The density is quantified using two independent analytical formulations. First, a best-fit transcendental function is applied directly to the basic planetary data. Next a solution to the time-dependent disk evolution equation is parametrically adapted to the solar nebula data. The latter model is shown to be a good approximation to the finite-size early Solar Nebula, and by extension to other extra solar protoplanetary disks.

Davis, Sanford S.↗

Battery Cell-to-Pack Scaling Laws for Electric Aircraft

Battery pack gravimetric energy density is one of the most important, yet often miss-estimated design parameters for sizing all-electric aircraft. Proper accounting for thermal, structural, and operational safety margins are frequently lost when extrapolating performance from the cell level to the aircraft level. This paper summarizes the relevant engineering and certification details needed to better account for the penalties associated when assembling battery packs. The relationship between the cell and pack energy density is not linear, as is often assumed. Furthermore, the relationship varies depending on pack requirements, cell chemistry, and architecture. Parametric, high-fidelity models are used to determine optimal battery pack sizes over a range of conditions to better quantify technology scaling effects.

Battery Electric Aircraft↗

Battery Cell-to-Pack Scaling Trends for Electric Aircraft

Battery pack gravimetric energy density is one of the most important, yet often miss- estimated design parameters for sizing all-electric aircraft. Proper accounting for thermal, structural, and operational safety margins are frequently lost when extrapolating performance from the cell level to the aircraft level. This paper summarizes the relevant engineering and certification details needed to better account for the penalties associated when assembling battery packs. The relationship between the cell and pack energy density is not linear, as is often assumed. Furthermore, the relationship varies depending on pack requirements, cell chemistry, and architecture. Parametric, high-fidelity models are used to determine optimal battery pack sizes over a range of conditions to better quantify technology scaling effects.

Battery Electric Aircraft↗

Cirrus clouds. I - A cirrus cloud model. II - Numerical experiments on the formation and maintenance of cirrus

A simplified cirrus cloud model is presented which may be used to investigate the role of various physical processes in the life cycle of a cirrus cloud. The model is a two-dimensional, time-dependent, Eulerian numerical model where the focus is on cloud-scale processes. Parametrizations are developed to account for phase changes of water, radiative processes, and the effects of microphysical structure on the vertical flux of ice water. The results of a simulation of a thin cirrostratus cloud are given. The results of numerical experiments performed with the model are described in order to demonstrate the important role of cloud-scale processes in determining the cloud properties maintained in response to larger scale forcing. The effects of microphysical composition and radiative processes are considered, as well as their interaction with thermodynamic and dynamic processes within the cloud. It is shown that cirrus clouds operate in an entirely different manner than liquid phase stratiform clouds.

Starr, D. OC.↗

Effects of model deficiencies on parameter estimation

Reliable structural dynamic models will be required as a basis for deriving the reduced-order plant models used in control systems for large space structures. Ground vibration testing and model verification will play an important role in the development of these models; however, fundamental differences between the space environment and earth environment, as well as variations in structural properties due to as-built conditions, will make on-orbit identification essential. The efficiency, and perhaps even the success, of on-orbit identification will depend on having a valid model of the structure. It is envisioned that the identification process will primarily involve parametric methods. Given a correct model, a variety of estimation algorithms may be used to estimate parameter values. This paper explores the effects of modeling errors and model deficiencies on parameter estimation by reviewing previous case histories. The effects depend at least to some extent on the estimation algorithm being used. Bayesian estimation was used in the case histories presented here. It is therefore conceivable that the behavior of an estimation algorithm might be useful in detecting and possibly even diagnosing deficiencies. In practice, the task is complicated by the presence of systematic errors in experimental procedures and data processing and in the use of the estimation procedures themselves.

Hasselman, T. K.↗

Analytic model of aurorally coupled magnetospheric and ionospheric electrostatic potentials

This paper describes modest but significant improvements on earlier studies of electrostatic potential structure in the auroral region, using the adiabatic auroral arc model. With certain simplifying assumptions, new analytic nonlinear solutions fully exhibiting the parametric dependence of potentials on magnetospheric (e.g., cross-tail potential) and ionospheric (e.g., recombination rate) parameters are found. No purely phenomenological parameters are introduced. The results are in reasonable agreement with observed average auroral potential drops, inverted-V scale sizes, and dissipation rates. The dissipation rate is quite comparable to tail energization and transport rates and should have a major effect on tail and magnetospheric dynamics. Various relations between the cross-tail potential and auroral parameters (e.g., total parallel currents and potential drops) are given which can be studied with existing data sets.

Cornwall, John M.↗

SMOS Salinity Retrieved from New Seawater Dielectric Constant Models at L-band

The accuracy of the Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) retrieved from L-Band radiometer measurements is strongly dependent on the accuracy of the modelling of the dielectric constant. Two new parametrizations have recently been developed based on one hand on the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite multi-angular brightness temperature measurements [1] (BV) and on the other hand on new laboratory measurements [3] (GW2020). These two approaches are fully independent. The brightness temperatures, Tb, simulated with the BV and GW2020 parametrizations are compared with each other and with the ones derived from dielectric constant models previously in use in the SMOS, Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Aquarius SSS retrievals. Tb simulated with the BV and GW2020 parametrizations agree particularly well for most SSS and SST commonly observed over the open ocean and are found to be in closer agreement than with earlier parametrizations. Nevertheless, uncertainty remains at low SST where a ∼ 0.1 K relative difference between the two models is observed. A complete reprocessing of SMOS SSS (2010–2020) has been performed using the BV parametrization instead of the Klein and Swift (1977) model previously used in SMOS processing. When compared with Argo derived near surface salinity maps, clear improvements are observed in warm and cold regions. Remaining uncertainties in cold waters will be discussed relatively to the uncertainties in SMOS Tb linked to sea ice contamination and given the constraints given by the GW2020 laboratory measurements.

J. Boutin↗

UQTools: The Uncertainty Quantification Toolbox - Introduction and Tutorial

UQTools is the short name for the Uncertainty Quantification Toolbox, a software package designed to efficiently quantify the impact of parametric uncertainty on engineering systems. UQTools is a MATLAB-based software package and was designed to be discipline independent, employing very generic representations of the system models and uncertainty. Specifically, UQTools accepts linear and nonlinear system models and permits arbitrary functional dependencies between the system s measures of interest and the probabilistic or non-probabilistic parametric uncertainty. One of the most significant features incorporated into UQTools is the theoretical development centered on homothetic deformations and their application to set bounding and approximating failure probabilities. Beyond the set bounding technique, UQTools provides a wide range of probabilistic and uncertainty-based tools to solve key problems in science and engineering.

Kenny, Sean P.↗

Quantifying the Impact of Systems Interdependencies in Space Systems Architectures

Due to the high number of systems in a space mission architecture and to their complex interactions, identifying risk and critical operational dependencies is not obvious. Traditional systems engineering methodology and risk assessment does not capture the impact of interactions between systems nor the cascading effects of disruptions. Based on these considerations, the Systems Operational Dependency Analysis methodology was developed for use by systems analysts and decision makers. This methodology utilizes a parametric model of interdependencies between systems to quantify the direct and indirect impact of system disruptions on other systems, as well as identify root causes. The results are effective at providing decision support for prioritizing technology investment based on risk reduction associated with potential system disruptions. Expanding on research presented at IAC 2018 and based on a collaboration with NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, this paper applies the Systems Operational Dependency Analysis methodology to NASA Lunar Gateway in collaboration with NASA’s lunar exploration plans. The paper presents a hierarchical representation of the interdependencies between a Gateway habitat’s systems and subsystems, demonstrates quantification of the impact of disruption, and assesses the criticality of the constituent systems and subsystems.

Guariniello, Cesare↗

Elliptic surface grid generation on minimal and parmetrized surfaces

An elliptic grid generation method is presented which generates excellent boundary conforming grids in domains in 2D physical space. The method is based on the composition of an algebraic and elliptic transformation. The composite mapping obeys the familiar Poisson grid generation system with control functions specified by the algebraic transformation. New expressions are given for the control functions. Grid orthogonality at the boundary is achieved by modification of the algebraic transformation. It is shown that grid generation on a minimal surface in 3D physical space is in fact equivalent to grid generation in a domain in 2D physical space. A second elliptic grid generation method is presented which generates excellent boundary conforming grids on smooth surfaces. It is assumed that the surfaces are parametrized and that the grid only depends on the shape of the surface and is independent of the parametrization. Concerning surface modeling, it is shown that bicubic Hermite interpolation is an excellent method to generate a smooth surface which is passing through a given discrete set of control points. In contrast to bicubic spline interpolation, there is extra freedom to model the tangent and twist vectors such that spurious oscillations are prevented.

Spekreijse, S. P.↗

Measurements of the Coexistence Curve near the Liquid-Gas Critical Point

The shape of the liquid-gas coexistence curve of He-3 very near the critical point (-2x10(exp -6) < t < -5x10(exp -3) was measured using the quasi-static thermogram method. The study was performed in Earth s gravitational field using two different height calorimetry cells, both originally designed for simultaneous measurements of the isochoric heat capacity, isothermal compressibility, and PVT. The heights of two cells were 0.5 mm and 4.8 cm. The uncertainty in measuring the phase transition temperature was typically +/-2 micro-K. The measured coexistence curve near the critical point was strongly affected by the gravitational field. Away from the critical point, the coexistence curve obtained using this technique was also consistent with the earlier work using the local density measurements of Pittman et al. The recent crossover parametric model of the equation-of-state are used to analyze the height-dependent measured coexistence curves. Data analyses have indicated that microgravity will permit measurements within two additional decades in reduced temperatures beyond the best gravity-free data obtained in Earth-bound experiments.

Hahn, Inseob↗

Seawater Dielectric Constant At L-Band: How Consistent Are New Parametrisations Inferred from Smos and Laboratory Measurements?

The accuracy of the Sea Surface Salinity (SSS) retrieved from L-Band radiometer measurements is strongly dependent on the accuracy of the modelling of the dielectric constant (ε). Two new ε parametrizations have recently been developed based on one hand on the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite multi-angular brightness temperature measurements and on the other hand on new laboratory measurements. These two approaches are fully independent. These new ε parametrizations are compared with each other and with the ε models previously in use in the SMOS, Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Aquarius SSS retrievals. The two new ε parametrizations are found to be in closer agreement than with earlier parametrizations for most common ocean conditions. We will further study to which extent the recent SMOS CCI+SSS v3 reprocessing confirms the above results and could help resolve remaining inconsistencies.

SMOS↗