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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1977

Severe weather prediction studies

A numerical forecast model is described which uses three-dimensional primitive equations to predict the evolution of the wind, temperature and moisture fields along with the subsynoptic-scale convective activity. There are 15 vertical levels set on a longitude-latitude horizontal grid. In this study, the horizontal grid distance is 70 km (0.625 deg latitude and 0.816 deg longitude at 40 deg N) and the time step is 90 sec. Orography is included and terrain coordinates are adopted. The forecast model is used to test two tornado-producing storms with very different synoptic structures. A 12 hr forecast is carried out for both cases. The rms errors of the forecast indicate much smaller errors in the middle troposphere than in the lower troposphere. The results demonstrate that a rather fine-mesh limited-area numerical model is capable of providing a valuable short-range forecast of the circulation and the mesoscale precipitation features.

Chang, C.-B.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A quasi-static model of global atmospheric electricity. I - The lower atmosphere

A quasi-steady model of global lower atmospheric electricity is presented. The model considers thunderstorms as dipole electric generators that can be randomly distributed in various regions and that are the only source of atmospheric electricity and includes the effects of orography and electrical coupling along geomagnetic field lines in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The model is used to calculate the global distribution of electric potential and current for model conductivities and assumed spatial distributions of thunderstorms. Results indicate that large positive electric potentials are generated over thunderstorms and penetrate to ionospheric heights and into the conjugate hemisphere along magnetic field lines. The perturbation of the calculated electric potential and current distributions during solar flares and subsequent Forbush decreases is discussed, and future measurements of atmospheric electrical parameters and modifications of the model which would improve the agreement between calculations and measurements are suggested.

Hays, P. B.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Sudden stratospheric warmings forced by mountains

A global, quasigeostrophic model of planetary wave interaction with the mean zonal flow has been used to simulate sudden stratospheric warmings forced by mean tropospheric zonal winds interacting with orography. Planetary waves m = 1 and 2 are simultaneously computed and interact with each other only through the mean zonal flow. An increase in the jet stream maximum from 36 to 48 m/sec is sufficient to initiate repeated major warmings with an approximate 80 day cycle. These results are in agreement with the observed anticorrelation of the annual variation of the winter monthly averaged jet stream strength and polar night jet strength.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Form-drag instability, multiple equilibria and propagating planetary waves in baroclinic, orographically forced, planetary wave systems

A two-layer baroclinic model is used to study the planetary-scale motions of a thermally driven atmosphere in the presence of topography, and in doing so to extend previous results obtained with a barotropic model. Highly truncated spectral equations are used to obtain multiple wavelike stationary equilibrium states, to examine the instabilities that produce them, and to study the instabilities that feed on them and give rise to traveling planetary waves. Although the equilibria cannot exist without orography, their energy comes from the potential energy of the mean flow, not from kinetic energy transfer via the mountain torque. Low-index (blocking) equilibria as well as high-index equilibria require a large thermal driving and are associated with both orographic and baroclinic instability of the Hadley circulation. It is suggested that blocking in nature is a quasi-stable circulation arising from orographic instability with strong thermal driving; and that observed low-frequency, propagating planetary waves are due to instabilities of the quasi-stationary, topographically forced equilibria.

Charney, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Global analysis of January and July sea level pressure

A global analysis of monthly mean sea level pressure for January and July over a 16 year period (1961 through 1976) is presented. For both hemispheres, the summer circulation is characterized by continental lows and oceanic highs. The prominent features of the Northern Hemispheric winter circulation, forced by diabatic heat sources and orography, are Aleutian low, Icelandic low and Siberian high. The interannual variability is small over the tropics and large over the extratropics. Maximum variability occurs over the locations of Icelandic and Aleutian lows in the Northern Hemispheric winter. The locations and intensities of the Southern Hemispheric subtropical highs, which occur over the oceans, are remarkably similar in January and July and show small interannual variability. The north Atlantic and south Atlantic subtropical highs attain their maximum intensity at the same time, during July.

Godbole, R. V.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Winter and summer simulations with the GLAS climate model

The GLAS climate model is a general circulation model based on the primitive equations in sigma coordinates on a global domain in the presence of orography. The model incorporates parameterizations of the effects of radiation, convection, large scale latent heat release, turbulent and boundary layer fluxes, and ground hydrology. Winter and summer simulations were carried out with this model, and the resulting data are compared to observations.

Shukla, J.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A simple mechanism for blocking

Numerical experiments show that blocking in a barotropic atmosphere can occur as a resonant enhancement of Rossby lee waves forced by two stationary sources of potential vorticity. In particular, if an upstream source of stationary forcing enhances the northerly flow over orography, then blocking occurs downstream of the mountain. In an analytical study, we show that, in the presence of friction, Rossby lee waves generate a rectified current downstream of the mountain, which does not vanish in the limit of zero friction. The relevance of this study to observed generation of blocking in the Atlantic Ocean and immediately upstream of the Rockies is discussed.

Kalnay-Rivas, E.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Predictability of ultralong waves in global and hemispheric quasi-geostrophic barotropic models

A global quasi-geostrophic barotropic model, including orography, zonal forcing, and frictional dissipation, is compared to two hemispheric models, one with antisymmetric equatorial boundary conditions and one with symmetric boundary conditions. The stationary solutions in the global model and the hemispheric models are found to be different, because the hemispheric models lack either the symmetric or antisymmetric waves, and because the nonlinear feedbacks are much larger in the hemispheric models. Time-dependent calculations show that the hemispheric models can excite anomalous Rossby waves and can produce erroneous short-range forecasts in middle latitudes. It is concluded that global models are preferred for making both short-range and long-range forecasts for middle latitudes.

Roads, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Estimates of the seasonal mean vertical velocity fields of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere

Indirect methods are employed to estimate the wintertime and summertime mean vertical velocity fields of the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and intercomparisons are made, together with comparisons with mean seasonal patterns of cloudiness and precipitation. Twice-daily NMC operational analyses produced general circulation statistics for 11 winters and 12 summers, permitting calculation of the seasonal NMC averages for 6 hr forecasts, solution of the omega equation, integration of continuity equation downward from 100 mb, and solution of the thermodynamic energy equation in the absence of diabatic heating. The methods all yielded similar vertical velocity patterns; however, the magnitude of the vertical velocities could not be calculated with great accuracy. Orography was concluded to have less of an effect in summer than in winter, when winds are stronger.

White, G. H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Investigation of the equatorial orographic-dynamic mechanism applying the bounded derivative method

A system of equations which describe the motion of a barotropic fluid in the presence of bottom topography are presented. The mathematical expression for orography is developed and the bounded derivative initialization method is applied to suppress gravitational oscillations. A stationary orographic trough is simulated. The geopotential and zonal motion have maximum deviation from the mean state at the top of the mountain. Regarding meridional speed, outflow occurs on the windward slope and inflow on the leeward slope. Divergence of order (10(-6)s(-1) is found on the windward slope while convergence of the same order of magnitude resides on the leeward slope. This outcome may have interesting implications regarding real climatology occurring over the equatorial regions of continental land masses.

Semazzi, F. H. M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Diagnosis of the GLAS climate model's stationary planetary waves using a linearized steady state model

Orography and geographically fixed heat sources which force a zonally asymmetric motion field are examined. An extensive space-time spectral analysis of the GLAS climate model (D130) response and observations are compared. An updated version of the model (D150) showed a remarkable improvement in the simulation of the standing waves. The main differences in the model code are an improved boundary layer flux computation and a more realistic specification of the global boundary conditions.

Youngblut, C.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Numerical study of terrain-induced mesoscale motions and hydrostatic form drag in a heated, growing mixed layer

Han et al. (1982) have found in a previous numerical study of terrain-induced mesoscale motions that the orography caused a steady-state flow pattern to occur. The study was concerned with a simplified case in which no surface heating occurred. The present investigation considers an extension of this study to the more realistic case of a heated, growing daytime mixed layer containing horizontal variations of potential temperature as well as velocity. The model is also extended to include three layers above the mixed layer. It is found for a heated, growing mixed layer, that the mesoscale form drag is a thermal-anomaly or buoyancy effect associated with horizontal variations of potential temperature within the layer.

Deardorff, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Fungi of Mount Babia Gora. 3: The indicating value of macromycetes in the forest associations

The results of a mycological investigation of the forests of the upper mountain forest zone of Mt. Babia Gora and the synthetic characteristics of participation of macromycetes in all the forests studied are presented. Regularities and distinct connections were found in the occurrence of macromycetes on the background of various forest associations, differences in exposure, orography, climate, and changes induced by man.

Bujakiewicz, A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Orographic Effects in Atmospheric Circulation

The role of orography on the large-scale and regional atmospheric circulation, with special emphasis on lee cyclogenesis was studied. Effects observed in the actual atmosphere as well as numerical weather prediction and general circulation models are included.

Duffy, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Application of the Bounded Derivative Initialization Method

The utility of the bounded derivative method (BDM) as an initialization tool was examined using real data and the GLAS fourth order global barotropic model. Two constraints on initial data were derived. The first constraint based on the BDM is an equation for calculating initial divergence. The second constraint yields an additional equation of elliptic type for computing the initial height field. This equation is more general than the balance equation first proposed by Charney (1955). It also has more terms which include the contributions of initial divergence and orography. The development of a data insertion scheme based on the BDM is discussed.

Semazzi, F. H. M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Experiments on the Assimilation of Patches of Data Using a Barotropic Model

Experiments were performed to examine the impact of adopting various procedures in the assimilation of patches of data during the progress of a numerical forecast. A barotropic model described by Takacs and Balgovind, 1983 is used for the experiments. The model is global and its discretization is similar to the GLA Fourth Order GCM. The effect of orography is included in the model. The experiments are of an identical twin kind. The nature run starts from global fields of wind (u and v) and height (h) at 300 mb. They are real data of January, 1979 OOZ which were interpolated from the adjacent sigma levels of the GLA GCM and then balanced by the bounded derivative method. From this initial state a 6 day forecast is performed. At intervals of 3 hours this information is saved over sectors of 60 width in longitude, from the south pole to the north pole, to simulate data coverage and observational frequency of a polar orbiting satellite.

Semazzi, F. H. M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Some Recent Developments in Numerical Modelling at ECMWF

A new atmospheric model was introduced into operational forecasting at the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, on 21 April 1983. The principal differences between this model and the Center's first operational model were in the adiabatic formulation, which, in the new model, includes use of a spectral representation in the horizontal, a more general vertical coordinate, and a modified, more-efficient, time-stepping scheme. In addition, new programming techniques and standards were adopted to facilitate both the model's use as a research tool and its adaptation to make full use of the features of the recently-acquired CRAY X-MP computer. A number of revisions were also made in detailed aspects of the formulation of the parameterization schemes. The operational change to this new model was accompanied by a second important change, namely the use of a higher envelope orography in the lower boundary conditions of the model. Problems in the operational performance of the model and development preparatory to the future operational implementation of a high resolution version of the model on the CRAY X-MP are discussed.

Simmons, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

An investigation of the equatorial orographic-dynamic mechanism

A barotropic model over an equatorial beta-plane is used to investigate the response when a uniform zonal current crosses an isolated hypothetical mountain centered at the equator. The bounded derivative initialization method is applied to suppress gravity-inertia motions. A quasi-stationary trough is generated at the top of the orography. Its intensity is greater in the easterly case than in the westerly case of the initial zonal current. A diagnostic equation is derived to interpret this difference in the solution. The quasi-stationary orographic divergence field which is positive on the windward slope and negative on the leeward slope (for both easterly and westerly cases of the initial zonal current) is responsible for maintaining the trough. The difference in the intensity of the trough is due to the contribution of the beta-u effect, which changes sign with the direction of the initial zonal flow.

Semazzi, F. H. M.↗