Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “optimization under uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

481 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Boron Coordination in Multicomponent Glasses: Analytical Models and Machine Learning With Uncertainty

Borosilicate glasses are extensively used in a variety of applications from kitchenware to nuclear waste immobilization due to the strong network formed by the Si-O-B bond that makes it resistant to chemical corrosion and gives it a low thermal expansion. Boron, however, exists in both trigonal BO3 and tetrahedral BO4 bonds in glass systems, which impacts the chemical durability and thermal resistance of the glass, amongst other properties. Boron coordination (N4), or the ratio of the amount of BO4 to BO3 within a glass, may aid in predicting these properties but is difficult to derive without experimental data due to the complexity of impacts from varied glass compositions and processing factors. For this reason, compositional models have been developed to predict boron coordination, but the models typically include a limited number of glass components. To help fill this gap in the models, in this work, a diverse multicomponent glass dataset of 809 glasses is compiled from a literature search, and then a number of analytical and machine learning (ML) models are trained on the dataset. Previously developed modified Bernstein and modified Du Stebbins analytical models were fitted to update parameters with the new dataset. Then, partially Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian process regressor, and heteroskedastic deterministic neural networks were evaluated. The ML models examined all have different strategies to overcome the potential for overfitting as a result of a limited training dataset, and return results that account for model uncertainty, which can be valuable for understanding model reliability. For the first time, cooling rate is introduced as an input parameter for ML models, showing consistent improvements in performance and solidifying the importance of including parameters outside of composition alone for N4 prediction. The machine learning models examined here show promise in accurate predictions of boron coordination in borosilicate glasses, all achieving R2 values of 0.91.

boron coordination↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reaction Optimization for Enzymatic Deconstruction of Industrially Relevant Nylon Composites

Plastics such as polyamides (PAs) possess unique physicochemical properties that make them indispensable in modern society. However, their energy‐intensive production and challenging end‐of‐life management highlight the urgent need for efficient recycling or remanufacturing solutions. Enzymatic depolymerization offers a promising route toward circular recycling, yet remains constrained by limited enzyme characterization, lack of validation under industrially relevant conditions and substrates, and overall performance. Here, we optimized the reaction conditions for three recently discovered nylon‐degrading enzymes. One of them, Nyl12, achieved product titers with PA6 and PA66 that exceed previously reported values, without enzyme engineering or substrate pretreatment. We further demonstrated the scalability of the process and its application to complex PA‐based materials used in microelectronic components. Analysis of substrate features, including surface area and particle size, revealed key parameters governing enzymatic activity and provided a framework for future pretreatment and process optimization efforts. In combination, these efforts provide a new benchmark for enzymatic nylon recycling.

nylon↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decoupling Failure Pathways in Li-O 2 Cells Operated Under Lean Electrolyte Conditions

The operation of lithium-oxygen (Li-O 2 ) batteries under lean electrolyte conditions offers higher energy density but leads to rapid degradation and short cycle life. Although cathode passivation and electrolyte decomposition occur in all regimes, we show that under lean electrolyte conditions, failure is primarily driven by progressive electrolyte consumption at the lithium/solid electrolyte interphase (SEI), rather than by irreversible cathode passivation. Poor wetting of the lithium surface results in heterogeneous SEI growth and high local current densities, which accelerate electrolyte loss and cell failure. Strategies aimed at improving interfacial stability, including optimized wetting and SEI forming additives, significantly extend cycle life without compromising energy density. Our results establish anode-electrolyte interactions as the dominant degradation mechanism under lean electrolyte conditions, and emphasize the need to engineer a stable Li/SEI interface for long-lasting Li-O 2 batteries.

Córdoba, Daniel [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable Triacetic Acid Lactone Production from Sugarcane by Fermentation and Crystallization

Triacetic acid lactone (TAL) has the potential to serve as a bioderived platform chemical for commercial products including sorbic acid and recyclable polydiketoenamine plastics. In this study, we leveraged BioSTEAM to design, simulate, and evaluate (via techno-economic analysis, TEA, and life cycle assessment, LCA) TAL production from sugarcane. We experimentally characterized TAL solubility, calibrated solubility models, and designed a process to separate TAL from fermentation broths by crystallization. The biorefinery could produce TAL at a minimum product selling price (MPSP) of $\$3.73$–5.86·kg –1 (5th–95th percentiles; baseline at $\$4.60$·kg –1 ) and a carbon intensity (CI) of 5.31 [2.60–8.71] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 , which could enable financially viable, low-CI production of sorbic acid and polydiketoenamines. To drive down costs and CI, we explored the theoretical fermentation space (titer, yield, productivity combinations), operation scheduling and capacity expansion strategies (e.g., integrated sorghum processing), and potential separation improvements (mitigating TAL loss through pH control). Advancements in key design and technological parameters could further reduce MPSP by 51% to $\$2.26$·kg –1 [$\$1.97$–2.80·kg –1 ] and CI by 43% to 3.05 [1.91–4.15] kg CO 2 -eq·kg –1 . This research highlights the ability of agile TEA-LCA to screen promising designs, navigate sustainability trade-offs, prioritize research needs, and chart quantitative roadmaps to advance bioproducts and biofuels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced LiFSI-LiPF6 Electrolyte for Wide-Temperature and Thermally Stable Lithium-Ion Batteries

A new optimized LiFSI–LiPF6 dual-salt controlled-solvation electrolyte (E-DS) is demonstrated to enable practical graphite||LiNi0.8Mn0.1Co0.1O2 cells (˜4.0 mAh cm?²) to achieve exceptional performance and safety under extreme conditions. By optimizing anion coordination with the smaller, more dissociating FSI? anion, the E-DS forms ultrathin, dense, and inorganic-rich electrode/electrolyte interphases that dramatically suppress solvent decomposition, transition-metal dissolution, and surface reconstruction compared to the conventional LiPF6/carbonate electrolyte. Consequently, E-DS cells deliver >78% capacity retention after 300 cycles at 60 °C, retain fast discharging capacity at 30 °C, and operate effectively at -20 °C. Most strikingly, fully charged full cells with E-DS, even under overcharging to 4.8 V, show a lower heat evolution in stable formulations — transforming a traditionally unstable high-voltage/high-temperature configuration into an intrinsically safe state. This work establishes a new benchmark for carbonate-containing electrolytes, simultaneously achieving high energy density, fast-discharging capability, wide-temperature operation (-20 to 60 °C), and outstanding thermal safety in nickel-rich lithium-ion batteries.

electrode/electrolyte interphase↗
DOE OSTI2026

Digital Twin Based Condition Monitoring of LCC-LCC Inductive Power Transfer Systems

Inductive power transfer (IPT) systems provide a flexible, hands-free charging opportunity to electric vehicles (EV). The resonant network components and the transmitter and receiver coils are often subjected to high voltages or currents. Component aging in the compensation network and coils of resonant IPT systems is detrimental to the reliability and power transfer efficiency of the IPT system. Monitoring the component health of such multi-element complex systems requires robust optimization algorithms. This paper discusses condition monitoring of a resonant IPT system for an EV charger using a digital twin model. A hybrid estimation algorithm based on genetic algorithms and adaptive particle swarm optimization is developed to estimate the parameters of the digital twin model. Simulation results are used to verify the monitoring capabilities of the developed algorithm under various operating conditions of the IPT system.

Weldehawaryat, Lidya Mussie [graduate research ass↗
DOE OSTI2026

Jumpstart Opportunities to Unleash Leadership in Energy Storage (JOULES)

Current-generation Li-ion batteries with cobalt- and nickel-containing cathodes and graphite anodes are approaching performance and cost limits. In this program, 24M Technologies, Inc. (24M) is teaming with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and University of Michigan (UM) to develop low cost and fast charging sodium metal batteries with good low-temperature performance and high energy density, building upon previous work performed under ARPA-E programs. Key achievements include optimization of solid electrolyte and anode current collector, optimized cathode active materials, development of high-performance electrolyte formulations, and integration of these components into full cells. The cell design incorporates (1) an ultra-thick cathode (>9 mAh/cm 2 ) comprising advanced cobalt-free, sodium cathode active material, (2) advanced fast-charging electrolyte (up to 12 mS/cm) developed using machine learning and automated high-throughput screening technology by UM, and (3) ceramic modified separator that enable smooth Na transport and deposition, developed at MIT, enabling a high-energy density anode-free configuration and maximizing the energy density of sodium batteries. The team has successfully combined these approaches to sodium chemistry and paved the way to meeting the fast-charging, high-energy density, and low-cost requirements of next-generation drone, electric vertical take-off and -landing, and electric vehicle batteries. Performance for anode-free sodium cells developed under this program is more powerful than the commercial Li-ion batteries. The final deliverable cell design has achieved over 300 Wh/kg and volumetric energy density above 800 Wh/L (Table 1). Additionally, the team has achieved over (1) a lifetime of 340 cycles, (2) 80% capacity retention at -20 °C (compared 25 °C), and (3) the ability to fast charge to 80% SOC in 20 minutes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust Heat-Flux Sensors for Coal-Fired Boiler Extreme Environments

In this project, robust heat-flux measurement systems were developed. The heat-flux sensors utilize thermoelectric effects to directly transduce the heat-flux inputs to analog electrical voltage signals. They were constructed from dedicated materials that can withstand temperatures of at least 1000°C and maintain adequate performance at these conditions for prolonged periods of time. The proposed approaches took into account numerous considerations, including system cost, sensor head resilience, sensor footprint, data accuracy, response time, and maintenance requirements. Through modern thermoelectric materials design, methodical materials selection and rigorous testing in materials characterization labs and medium-scale fire research facilities, we have demonstrated functioning laboratory prototypes, upon which one could base industrial heat-flux sensing platforms capable of operating in the challenging high-temperature, corrosive environments of the boilers of coal-fired power plants. A distributed sensor array for heat-flux measurements throughout the furnace water-wall, the superheater area and the economizer coils can provide critical data for the power plant control systems to increase efficiency, improve safety and reduce down times. For example, the combined heat-flux sensor/control systems can contribute to the optimization of burner and boiler operations under flexible loads, the optimization of heat-exchange conditions and overall reduction of heat rate and emissions, the prediction of imminent overheating conditions, and the optimization of the soot-blowing protocols.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI-Batt (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models) [SWR 21-36]

Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models (AI-Batt) AI-Batt is a MATLAB code base for developing lifetime models for batteries from accelerated aging data. The code base provides many functions for processing, visualizing, and modeling battery aging data, making the data processing, exploration, and modeling workflow substantially faster. These tools are tailored for working with battery aging data sets, which usually consist of many separate time-series for each cell, with many test conditions and possible replicates at each condition, which makes it difficult to simply process or visualize the data set. Complex modeling tasks, such as cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification have been implemented to enable thorough statistical investigation of model predictions. Additionally, several machine-learning algorithms are implemented to autonomously identify suitable models via symbolic regression. Data processing functions automatically cast data from the struct data type, which is commonly used to store experimental data, but is not an acceptable input for most algorithms, to the table data type, which can be easily used as input to any optimization algorithm. Also, the data can be separated into time-invariant and time-variant data tables, which is helpful for exploring the data set as well as developing separate models for time-variant and time-invariant aging mechanisms. For example, in aging tests with constant temperature, temperature is a time-invariant experimental condition. Visualization tools enable plotting of data, model fits, and model simulations possible with single-line function calls, empowering data exploration of complex data sets with both time-varying and time-invariant trends. Plots can be automatically generated for the whole data set, or separated by data group (groups of test replicates) or individual data series. Data points or data series can be automatically colored by the value of a variable with a variety of color maps, and model predictions can also be colored by the value of a fit statistic. Comparisons between data sets and the predictions/simulations of different models on the same data set can be easily plotted as well. Distributions of parameter values from bootstrap resampling can be plotted to visualize the reliability of parameter estimation, or determine any correlations between parameters. Modeling tools handle the complex task of creating and parsing symbolic equations for modeling battery lifetime. Equations are parsed to grab relevant data variables, parameter values, or specified sub-models for input into optimization, evaluation, or simulation functions. Models can be optimized locally (one set of parameters for each data series), bi-level (some parameters shared across the data set), or globally (single set of parameters for all data). Functions implementing symbolic regression algorithms help users to discover effective model equations, even in poorly sampled, high-dimensional data.

Smith, Kandler [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NR↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integral Nuclear Data and Benchmarking Needs for Fusion Energy Systems

Fusion energy systems are currently being designed and optimized using radiation transport codes. To deal with the unique environment inside a fusion-based system, many of these designs incorporate novel materials able to withstand the high radiation fields, ensure adequate cooling and thermal protection, and produce tritium. Validation plays a vital role in building trust in the predictive power of these models and computational methods. Validation of a code consists of modeling documented real-world experiments and comparing the code-predicted response to the measured response. Adequate validation requires measured responses from real-world experiments, also known as integral data, that mimic the system being designed, including materials, impinging radiation, and temperature, among other variables. The most trusted integral data are experimental responses that have been through a rigorous benchmarking process that develops a recommended computational model and evaluates all experimental uncertainties. Finally, there are a few research groups around the world that have been producing integral data for fusion applications, but a substantial investment is needed to address the unique validation needs of the fusion community.

Fusion↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electronic structure prediction of medium and high entropy alloys across composition space

We propose machine learning (ML) models to predict the electron density — the fundamental unknown of a material’s ground state — across the composition space of concentrated alloys. From this, other physical properties can be inferred, enabling accelerated exploration. A significant challenge is that the number of descriptors and sampled compositions required for accurate prediction grows rapidly with species. To address this, we employ Bayesian Active Learning (AL), which minimizes training data requirements by leveraging uncertainty quantification capabilities of Bayesian Neural Networks. Compared to the strategic tessellation of the composition space, Bayesian-AL reduces the number of training data points by a factor of 2.5 for ternary (SiGeSn) and 1.7 for quaternary (CrFeCoNi) systems. We also introduce easy-to-optimize, body-attached-frame descriptors, which respect physical symmetries while keeping descriptor-vector size nearly constant as alloy complexity increases. Our ML models demonstrate high accuracy and generalizability in predicting both electron density and energy across composition space.

materials science↗
DOE OSTI2025

Customizable wave tailoring nonlinear materials enabled by bilevel inverse design

Abstract Passive wave transformation via nonlinearity is ubiquitous in settings from acoustics to optics and electromagnetics. It is well known that different nonlinearities yield different effects on propagating signals, which raises the question of “what precise nonlinearity is the best for a given wave tailoring application?” In this work, considering a one-dimensional spring-mass chain connected by polynomial springs (a variant of the Fermi-Pasta-Ulam-Tsingou system), we introduce a bilevel inverse design method which couples the shape optimization of structures for tailored constitutive responses with reduced-order nonlinear dynamical inverse design. We apply it to two qualitatively distinct problems—minimization of peak transmitted kinetic energy from impact, and pulse shape transformation—demonstrating our method’s breadth of applicability. For the impact problem, we obtain two fundamental insights. First, small differences in nonlinearity can drastically change the dynamic response of the system, from severely under- to outperforming a comparative linear system. Second, the oft-used strategy of impact mitigation via “energy locking” bistability can be significantly outperformed by our optimal nonlinearity. We validate this case with impact experiments and find excellent agreement. This study establishes a framework for broader passive nonlinear mechanical wave tailoring material design, with applications to computing, signal processing, shock mitigation, and autonomous materials.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Manipulating Na/TM Ratio‐Driven Structural Heterogeneity of O3‐NaNi 1/3 Fe 1/3 Mn 1/3 O 2 Cathode for High‐Voltage Sodium‐Ion Batteries

The stability of O3-type NaNi 1/3 Fe 1/3 Mn 1/3 O 2 under high-voltage cycling is dictated by how synthesis encodes lattice strain and redox heterogeneity. Here, in this study, the role of Na:TM stoichiometry is systematically resolved by tuning the NaOH:precursor ratio during solid-state synthesis. The stoichiometric condition (Na:TM = 1.00) yields minimized microstrain, enabling uniform O3–P3 phase evolution and homogeneous multi-metal redox with preserved octahedral symmetry. In contrast, Na-excess compositions inherit disordered intermediates and heterogeneous distortion fields that trigger abrupt multiphase transitions and promote localized charge redistribution. In situ XRD captures the divergence in phase-transition pathways, TXM resolves particle-level redox heterogeneity, and XANES corroborates a stronger and more reversible Fe redox contribution at stoichiometry, shifting to diminished Fe participation and spatially inhomogeneous redox at higher Na content. These results establish Na:TM stoichiometry as a critical synthesis parameter controlling both structural coherence and redox stability. Electrochemically, the stoichiometric composition exhibits smooth voltage profiles with minimal polarization growth and retains nearly 80% of its initial capacity after 100 cycles even at an extended 4.2 V cutoff, whereas Na-excess compositions show significantly reduced initial coulombic efficiency and rapid voltage fade. Precise stoichiometric tuning provides a scalable route to defect-suppressed O3 frameworks, enabling structurally resilient, high-voltage sodium-layered cathodes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗