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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anomaly Detection Based on Machine Learning for the CMS Electromagnetic Calorimeter Online Data Quality Monitoring

Using a semi-supervised machine learning approach we present a real-time anomaly detection system based on an autoencoder used for online data quality monitoring of the CMS electromagnetic calorimeter operating at the CERN LHC. We introduce a novel method that maximizes the anomaly detection performance making use of the time-dependence of anomalies and the spatial variations in the detector response. The autoencoder-based system efficiently detects anomalies in real time and maintains a very low false discovery rate. We validate the performance of this novel system with anomalies from LHC collision data taken in 2018 and 2022. In addition, results are presented after deploying the autoencoder-based system in the CMS online Data Quality Monitoring workflow at the beginning of LHC Run 3 resulting in the system to detect issues that were missed by the existing system.

Harilal, Abhirami [Carnegie Mellon University, Pit↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient and assured reinforcement learning-based building HVAC control with heterogeneous expert-guided training

Abstract Building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems account for nearly half of building energy consumption and $$20\%$$ of total energy consumption in the US. Their operation is also crucial for ensuring the physical and mental health of building occupants. Compared with traditional model-based HVAC control methods, the recent model-free deep reinforcement learning (DRL) based methods have shown good performance while do not require the development of detailed and costly physical models. However, these model-free DRL approaches often suffer from long training time to reach a good performance, which is a major obstacle for their practical deployment. In this work, we present a systematic approach to accelerate online reinforcement learning for HVAC control by taking full advantage of the knowledge from domain experts in various forms . Specifically, the algorithm stages include learning expert functions from existing abstract physical models and from historical data via offline reinforcement learning, integrating the expert functions with rule-based guidelines, conducting training guided by the integrated expert function and performing policy initialization from distilled expert function. Moreover, to ensure that the learned DRL-based HVAC controller can effectively keep room temperature within the comfortable range for occupants, we design a runtime shielding framework to reduce the temperature violation rate and incorporate the learned controller into it. Experimental results demonstrate up to 8.8 X speedup in DRL training from our approach over previous methods, with low temperature violation rate.

Xu, Shichao↗
DOE OSTI2026

A bi-level advanced control framework for large-scale control of buildings with system-level impact

Increased electricity consumption combined with new forms of generation is testing the reliability of our grid infrastructure. This work describes a method to improve the reliability of the grid through large-scale advanced building control. This paper develops a bi-level distributed control framework to shift the load of 153 buildings to achieve a system-level objective of tracking a power reference signal. This bi-level control is based on the previously-developed ANPV-MPC, a predictive controller that uses a Bayesian neural network to generate an accurate control model and adapt to changing conditions over time. By shifting the building electricity demand to better match the available power, the grid system supplying the buildings is more reliable as evidenced by the analysis of node voltages across an IEEE 13-bus distribution system. The proposed bi-level control framework tracks the system-level power reference with enough accuracy to regulate node voltages across the IEEE 13-bus distribution system within ANSI limits of ±5%. Additionally, the adaptive nature of ANPV-MPC allows each building across the system to adapt to changing conditions, further amplifying the system-level reliability.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

pbd-industrial-limit-of-performance (PBD limit of performance) v1.0.0

Software repository that contains models used for a paper about Platform-Based Design with limit of performance analysis for an industrial pilot study. This repository contains process and control models in Modelica and IDAES and scripts to develop an ML based controller that computes the control function that maximizes the techno-economic performance of cost and energy computed by the model. This software is meant to be released to reproduce the work described in a Journal publication that is now drafted with the working title "Energy System Limit of Performance Analysis using an Online Machine Learning Multi-Resolution Optimization Framework".

Amusat, Oluwamayowa [Lawrence Berkeley National La↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating lightweight unsupervised online IDS for masquerade attacks in CAN

Vehicular controller area networks (CANs) are susceptible to masquerade attacks by malicious adversaries. In masquerade attacks, adversaries silence a targeted ID and then send malicious frames with forged content at the expected timing of benign frames. As masquerade attacks could seriously harm vehicle functionality and are the stealthiest attacks to detect in CAN, recent work has devoted attention to compare frameworks for detecting masquerade attacks in CAN. However, most existing works report offline evaluations using CAN logs already collected using simulations that do not comply with the domain’s real-time constraints. Here we contribute to advance the state of the art by presenting a comparative evaluation of four different non-deep learning (DL)-based unsupervised online intrusion detection systems (IDS) for masquerade attacks in CAN. Our approach differs from existing comparative evaluations in that we analyze the effect of controlling streaming data conditions in a sliding window setting. In doing so, we use realistic masquerade attacks being replayed from the ROAD dataset. We show that although evaluated IDS are not effective at detecting every attack type, the method that relies on detecting changes in the hierarchical structure of clusters of time series produces the best results at the expense of higher computational overhead. We discuss limitations, open challenges, and how the evaluated methods can be used for practical unsupervised online CAN IDS for masquerade attacks.

Anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning based x-ray spectrometer for high repetition rate characterization of betatron radiation

Betatron radiation produced from a laser-wakefield accelerator is a broadband, hard x-ray (>1 keV) source that has been used in a variety of applications in medicine, engineering, and fundamental science. Further development and optimization of stable, high repetition rate (HRR) (>1 Hz) betatron sources will provide a means to extend their application base to include single-shot dynamical measurements of ultrafast processes or dense materials. Recent advances in laser technology used in such experiments have enabled increases in shot-rate and system stability, providing improved statistical analysis and detailed parameter scans. However, unique challenges exist at high repetition rate, where data throughput and source optimization are now limited by diagnostic acquisition rates and analysis. Here, we present the development of a machine-learning algorithm for the real-time analysis of betatron radiation. We report on the fielding of this deep learning algorithm for online source characterization at the Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique's Advanced Laser Light Source. By fine-tuning an algorithm originally trained on a fully synthetic dataset using a subset of experimental data, the algorithm can predict the betatron critical energy with a percent error of 7.2 % with a reconstruction time of 1.5 ms, providing a valuable tool for real-time, multi-objective optimization at HRR.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Online Detection of Power Grid Anomalies via Federated Learning

Data from sensors is critical for advanced applica- tions that support efficient, reliable, and resilient electric grid operations. Historically, data from phasor measurement units (PMU) has been utilized to develop a wide variety of wide area control and protection applications suitable for power grid control centers. However, until now, most of these could not be deployed for automated operations due to a set of data corruption challenges and uncertainty in the incoming data pipeline. In this paper, we address the problem of detecting different variety of anomalies that are evident in different high- speed power grid measurements. The paper discusses a workflow for handling problems with data acquisition and highlights some of the key findings suitable for anomaly detection in a centralized and distributed environment. The effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated with results utilizing realistic PMU datasets

Shinkle, Matthew W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning materials properties with accurate predictions, uncertainty estimates, domain guidance, and persistent online accessibility

One compelling vision of the future of materials discovery and design involves the use of machine learning (ML) models to predict materials properties and then rapidly find materials tailored for specific applications. However, realizing this vision requires both providing detailed uncertainty quantification (model prediction errors and domain of applicability) and making models readily usable. At present, it is common practice in the community to assess ML model performance only in terms of prediction accuracy (e.g. mean absolute error), while neglecting detailed uncertainty quantification and robust model accessibility and usability. Here, we demonstrate a practical method for realizing both uncertainty and accessibility features with a large set of models. We develop random forest ML models for 33 materials properties spanning an array of data sources (computational and experimental) and property types (electrical, mechanical, thermodynamic, etc). All models have calibrated ensemble error bars to quantify prediction uncertainty and domain of applicability guidance enabled by kernel-density-estimate-based feature distance measures. All data and models are publicly hosted on the Garden-AI infrastructure, which provides an easy-to-use, persistent interface for model dissemination that permits models to be invoked with only a few lines of Python code. We demonstrate the power of this approach by using our models to conduct a fully ML-based materials discovery exercise to search for new stable, highly active perovskite oxide catalyst materials.

domain of applicability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Virtual to Physical: Reinforcement Learning to Optimize SNS Particle Accelerator Controls

Complex accelerators must have control systems that can handle dynamic nonlinear environments. This makes traditional control methods unsuitable as they can struggle to adapt to these uncertainties. This provides an ideal environment for reinforcement learning algorithms as they are adaptable and generalizable. We present a reinforcement learning pipeline that can effectively handle the dynamics of a complex accelerator. We test and prove our pipelines capabilities on multiple environments including the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and the Beam Test Facility (BTF) at Oakridge National Lab (ORNL). Due to the limited time available to train an online algorithm like reinforcement learning on a real accelerator, we utilize a virtual twin accelerator (VIRAC) developed by ORNL to pretrain the policy and show its ability to converge in the virtual environment. We then test the adaptability of the pretrained RL model by applying it on the real accelerator and comparing the results. Utilizing our Scientific Optimization and Controls Toolkit (SOCT) and open-source standards such as Gymnasium we create and solve for a MEBT orbit correction problem in the SNS and an emittance maximization problem in the BTF. We show how Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) can solve this optimization environment in the virtual accelerator and transfer this policy onto the real accelerator for inference and model retraining. We show how reinforcement learning can be utilized as a control system for complex accelerators and provide a model pipeline for how an implementation performs and can be adapted to new accelerator control problems.

Kasparian, Armen [Thomas Jefferson National Accele↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Vertical Federated Machine Learning Against Adversarial Threats on Wide-Area Control System: Preprint

Federated machine learning (FL) is gaining significant popularity to develop cybersecurity solutions in power grids because of its advanced capability to support decentralized data handing at local devices, its privacy preservation, and its low-bandwidth requirement. However, the evolving adversarial machine learning (AML) threats raise significant concerns for the cybersecurity of FL architectures. The FL-based split neural network (SplitNN) achieves high performance through the decentralized training of local neural network models while preserving data privacy across multiple entities. In this paper, we propose a methodology for evaluating the performance of a vertical FLbased anomaly detector against different types of AML attacks, including denial-of-service attacks, adversarial data injection attacks, and replay attacks on the trained local models deployed in the grid network. For a case study, we consider the modified IEEE 13-bus system, and we develop SplitNN-based binary and multiclass classification models to detect, locate, and identify different types of data integrity attacks on the volt-watt control with two pooling layers: maximum pooling and AvgPool. Our experimental results, computed through performance metrics, reveal that the severity of these AML attacks varies with the integrated pooling mechanism, the type of classification model, and the nature of the cyberattack. Further, the AML attacks negatively impacted the prediction time per sample for the pretrained SplitNN during the online testing.

adversarial threats↗
DOE OSTI2025

Online energy consumption forecast for battery electric buses using a learning-free algebraic method

Accurately predicting the energy consumption plays a vital role in battery electric buses (BEBs) route planning and deployment. Based on the algebraic derivative estimation, we present a novel method to forecast the energy consumption in real time. In contrast to the mainstream machine-learning-based methods, the proposed method does not require access to the historical energy consumption data. It eliminates the time-consuming and computationally expensive offline training. Consequently, its prediction performance is not constrained by the quantity and quality of the training data. Moreover, the method can swiftly adapt to new situations not included in the previous driving cycles, which makes it especially suitable for emerging transport modes, e.g., on-demand transit services. In addition, its online execution only involves algebraic calculations, yielding superior calculation efficiency. Using real-world data, we comprehensively compare the performance of the proposed learning-free algebraic method with multiple representative machine-learning-based methods. Finally, the advantages and limitations of the proposed method are discussed in detail.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate the Fourier Forecasting Neural Network (FourCastNet), a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 global reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Here, our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Data assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate FourCastNet, a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 data. Our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Adrian, Melissa [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗
DOE OSTI2026

Decentralised Reinforcement Learning for Dynamic Cyberattack Response in Microgrid Networks

Microgrids rely on communication networks for reliable operation, which makes them inherently vulnerable to cyberattacks. Such attacks can destabilise system dynamics and drive states away from their nominal operating trajectories. Although several physics-informed and machine learning-based strategies have been developed to counter these threats, the rapidly evolving cyber landscape enables adversaries to bypass static defences or rules-based mitigation approaches. This paper proposes a dynamic, online-trained and fully decentralised reinforcement learning (RL)-based cyberattack response framework to protect microgrids from evolving cyberattacks. The proposed framework deploys multiple deep Q-networks (DQNs), each associated with a distributed energy resource (DER), to enable localised and adaptive attack mitigation. In this framework, each DQN processes local voltage and frequency measurements—combined with intrusion detection system (IDS) alerts—as observations and rewards to guide decision-making. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the robustness of the proposed framework under diverse attack scenarios and varying IDS-induced detection delays. Comparative analysis highlights its superiority over existing static or preexisting rules-based mitigation approaches. Finally, we present an analysis that shows the framework's scalability to real-life microgrids with more interacting agents.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance of the CMS high-level trigger during LHC Run 2

The CERN LHC provided proton and heavy ion collisions during its Run 2 operation period from 2015 to 2018. Proton-proton collisions reached a peak instantaneous luminosity of 2.1× 10 34 cm -2 s -1 , twice the initial design value, at √(s)=13 TeV. The CMS experiment records a subset of the collisions for further processing as part of its online selection of data for physics analyses, using a two-level trigger system: the Level-1 trigger, implemented in custom-designed electronics, and the high-level trigger, a streamlined version of the offline reconstruction software running on a large computer farm. This paper presents the performance of the CMS high-level trigger system during LHC Run 2 for physics objects, such as leptons, jets, and missing transverse momentum, which meet the broad needs of the CMS physics program and the challenge of the evolving LHC and detector conditions. Sophisticated algorithms that were originally used in offline reconstruction were deployed online. Highlights include a machine-learning b tagging algorithm and a reconstruction algorithm for tau leptons that decay hadronically.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance of the CMS high-level trigger during LHC Run 2

The CERN LHC provided proton and heavy ion collisions during its Run 2 operation period from 2015 to 2018. Proton-proton collisions reached a peak instantaneous luminosity of 2.1 $\times$ 10$^{34}$ cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$, twice the initial design value, at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV. The CMS experiment records a subset of the collisions for further processing as part of its online selection of data for physics analyses, using a two-level trigger system: the Level-1 trigger, implemented in custom-designed electronics, and the high-level trigger, a streamlined version of the offline reconstruction software running on a large computer farm. This paper presents the performance of the CMS high-level trigger system during LHC Run 2 for physics objects, such as leptons, jets, and missing transverse momentum, which meet the broad needs of the CMS physics program and the challenge of the evolving LHC and detector conditions. Sophisticated algorithms that were originally used in offline reconstruction were deployed online. Highlights include a machine-learning b tagging algorithm and a reconstruction algorithm for tau leptons that decay hadronically.

high energy physics↗