SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “objective uncertainty quantification”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis: Version 6.15 User's Manual

The Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible interface between simulation codes and iterative analysis methods. Dakota contains algorithms for optimization with gradient and nongradient-based methods; uncertainty quantification with sampling, reliability, and stochastic expansion methods; parameter estimation with nonlinear least squares methods; and sensitivity/variance analysis with design of experiments and parameter study methods. These capabilities may be used on their own or as components within advanced strategies such as surrogate-based optimization, mixed integer nonlinear programming, or optimization under uncertainty. By employing object-oriented design to implement abstractions of the key components required for iterative systems analyses, the Dakota toolkit provides a flexible and extensible problem-solving environment for design and performance analysis of computational models on high performance computers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dakota, A Multilevel Parallel Object-Oriented Framework for Design Optimization, Parameter Estimation, Uncertainty Quantification, and Sensitivity Analysis (V.6.16 User's Manual)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for multicomponent CALPHAD model optimization and uncertainty quantification

CALPHAD model parameter optimization is inherently challenging due to non-smooth objective functions, high-dimensional parameter spaces, and the need for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Traditional weighted nonlinear least squares approaches are computationally efficient but local, whereas black-box global optimizers and ensemble Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods provide broader exploration at substantial computational cost. The objective of this work is to combine the global exploration capability of gradient-informed Hamiltonian Monte Carlo – specifically the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS) – with local deterministic refinement using BFGS to efficiently optimize multicomponent CALPHAD models with minimal manual intervention. Analytic gradients are computed via the Jansson derivative framework. The methodology is demonstrated on the Cr—Fe binary system and extended to the Cr—Fe—Ni ternary system with 32 degrees of freedom. For Cr—Fe, NUTS achieves comparable or superior optimality relative to ensemble MCMC while requiring over an order-of-magnitude fewer likelihood evaluations. Parameter uncertainties are quantified through NUTS sampling and propagated to thermodynamic observables using local expansion, demonstrating a novel modular approach that combines binary and ternary parameter subsets without requiring global relaxation. These results establish gradient-informed exploration as a scalable strategy for multicomponent CALPHAD optimization and provide a practical route towards efficient higher-order database development with quantified uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach to Inference in Transient Surface Kinetics

Here, in this work, we develop a novel Bayesian approach to study the adsorption and desorption of CO onto a Pd(111) surface, a process of great importance in natural sciences. The motivation for this work comes from the recent availability of time-resolved infrared spectroscopy data and the need for model interpretability and uncertainty quantification in chemical processes. The objective is to learn the relevant parameters that characterize the process: coverage with time, rate constants, activation energies, and pre-exponential factors. Our approach consists of three main schemes: (i) a problem design and probabilistic model for the whole system, (ii) a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler to learn the hidden coverages and rate constant parameters, and (iii) two Bayesian formulations to infer the activation energies and pre-exponential factors. The flexibility of the Bayesian framework allows for uncertainty quantification where possible and integration of mathematical constraints in the model to reflect the system physically. We found that our results for the activation energies and pre-exponential factor are in agreement with those reported in the experimental literature, independently, and we provide discussions on the advantages and disadvantages as well as applicability to other systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Solving Stochastic Inverse Problems for Property–Structure Linkages Using Data-Consistent Inversion and Machine Learning

Determining process–structure–property linkages is one of the key objectives in material science, and uncertainty quantification plays a critical role in understanding both process–structure and structure–property linkages. In this work, we seek to learn a distribution of microstructure parameters that are consistent in the sense that the forward propagation of this distribution through a crystal plasticity finite element model matches a target distribution on materials properties. This stochastic inversion formulation infers a distribution of acceptable/consistent microstructures, as opposed to a deterministic solution, which expands the range of feasible designs in a probabilistic manner. Furthermore, to solve this stochastic inverse problem, we employ a recently developed uncertainty quantification framework based on push-forward probability measures, which combines techniques from measure theory and Bayes’ rule to define a unique and numerically stable solution. This approach requires making an initial prediction using an initial guess for the distribution on model inputs and solving a stochastic forward problem. To reduce the computational burden in solving both stochastic forward and stochastic inverse problems, we combine this approach with a machine learning Bayesian regression model based on Gaussian processes and demonstrate the proposed methodology on two representative case studies in structure–property linkages.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for inverse problems with application to ptychographic reconstruction

Inverse problems in imaging are commonly solved by optimization or learned surrogates that return a single reconstruction, while uncertainty information is often unavailable. In many experimental settings, however, uncertainty is required to assess reliability, guide downstream analysis, and prioritize additional measurements. In this note, we present a compact uncertainty-quantification framework based on local objective curvature, and then specialize it to ptychographic reconstruction. We further show how repeated reconstructions can be aggregated in a statistically principled way, including a practical implementation path for PtychoNN.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelized probabilistic machine learning and uncertainty quantification for computational energy applications

Here, this paper presents the development and demonstration of massively parallel probabilistic machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), an open-source computational platform for parallel finite element and finite volume analyses. In addressing the computational expense and uncertainties inherent in complex multiphysics simulations, this paper integrates Gaussian process (GP) variants, active learning, Bayesian inverse UQ, adaptive forward UQ, Bayesian optimization, evolutionary optimization, and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) within MOOSE. It also elaborates on the interaction among key MOOSE systems — Sampler, MultiApp, Reporter, and Surrogate — in enabling these capabilities. The modularity offered by these systems enables development of a multitude of probabilistic ML and UQ algorithms in MOOSE. Example code demonstrations include parallel active learning and parallel Bayesian inference via active learning. The impact of these developments is illustrated through five applications relevant to computational energy applications: UQ of nuclear fuel fission product release, using parallel active learning Bayesian inference; very rare events analysis in nuclear microreactors using active learning; advanced manufacturing process modeling using multi-output GPs (MOGPs) and dimensionality reduction; fluid flow using deep GPs (DGPs); and tritium transport model parameter optimization for fusion energy, using batch Bayesian optimization. These capabilities are part of the MOOSE framework.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tech-X contributions to the Center for Tokamak Transients (CTTS) Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) project (Final Report)

The Center for Tokamak Transients Simulations (CTTS) consists of computational plasma physicists, computer scientists, and applied mathematicians who are together developing and applying simulation software to improve our understanding of and ability to predict and control transient events in tokamak discharges, particularly those that lead to violent disruptions. We have major simulation activities concerning disruptions that are caused by violating ideal MHD stability criteria, vertical displacement events, resistive wall modes, and tearing modes. We are performing comprehensive modeling of disruption mitigation techniques, particularly by shattered pellet injection (SPI). The Center is built around two mature extended MHD codes: NIMROD and M3D-C1. These codes are being extended in a number of ways as required by the demands of disruption modeling, and are being optimized to work well for larger problem size and modern computer architectures as required to model tokamak plasmas with realistic parameters over the required timescales. The codes will be coupled to the FronTier code for state-of-the-art modeling of SPI. Validation with experimental data on DIII-D, NSTX, and JET is being facilitated by rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ). The high-level objectives of the center are to: (1) Develop better understanding and improved predictive capability of when crossing a linear stability boundary will likely lead to a disruption, (2) Provide a tool for calculating vessel forces, both axisymmetric and non-axisymmetric, for worst case VDE and other disruptions in tokamaks, (3) Develop increased understanding and improved predictive capability for locked mode disruptions and how best to avoid them, (4) Develop, verify, and validate 3D models for disruption mitigation by shattered pellets that can be used to design and optimize a system for future tokamaks, and (5) Increase the efficiency and scalability of the M3D-C1 and NIMROD codes so that they can model disruptions in ITER scale devices using the most powerful DOE HPC hardware, and (6) Demonstrate code-coupling via FronTier coupling with NIMROD and M3D-C1 and by interfacing these codes within a WDM framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk-averse optimal control of semilinear elliptic PDEs

In this paper, we consider the optimal control of semilinear elliptic PDEs with random inputs. These problems are often nonconvex, infinite-dimensional stochastic optimization problems for which we employ risk measures to quantify the implicit uncertainty in the objective function. In contrast to previous works in uncertainty quantification and stochastic optimization, we provide a rigorous mathematical analysis demonstrating higher solution regularity (in stochastic state space), continuity and differentiability of the control-to-state map, and existence, regularity and continuity properties of the control-to-adjoint map. Our proofs make use of existing techniques from PDE-constrained optimization as well as concepts from the theory of measurable multifunctions. We illustrate our theoretical results with two numerical examples motivated by the optimal doping of semiconductor devices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation via a Surrogate‐Accelerated Multi‐Objective Optimization

Accurate simulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is challenging due to uncertainties in representing convectively generated gravity waves. We develop an end-to-end uncertainty quantification workflow that calibrates these gravity wave processes in E3SM for a realistic QBO. Central to our approach is a domain knowledge-informed, compressed representation of high-dimensional spatio-temporal wind fields. By employing a parsimonious statistical model that learns the fundamental frequency from complex observations, we extract interpretable and physically meaningful quantities capturing key attributes. Building on this, we train a probabilistic surrogate model that approximates the fundamental characteristics of the QBO as functions of critical physics parameters governing gravity wave generation. Leveraging the Karhunen–Loève decomposition, our surrogate efficiently represents these characteristics as a set of orthogonal features, capturing cross-correlations among multiple physics quantities evaluated at different pressure levels and enabling rapid surrogate-based inference at a fraction of the computational cost of full-scale simulations. Finally, we analyze the inverse problem using a multi-objective approach. Our study reveals a tension between amplitude and period that constrains the QBO representation, precluding a single optimal solution. To navigate this, we quantify the bi-criteria trade-off and generate a set of Pareto optimal parameter values that balance the conflicting objectives. This integrated workflow improves the fidelity of QBO simulations and offers a versatile template for uncertainty quantification in complex geophysical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Manifold Learning-Based Polynomial Chaos Expansions for High-Dimensional Surrogate Models

In this work we introduce a manifold learning-based method for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in systems describing complex spatiotemporal processes. Our first objective is to identify the embedding of a set of high-dimensional data representing quantities of interest of the computational or analytical model. For this purpose, we employ Grassmannian diffusion maps, a two-step nonlinear dimension reduction technique which allows us to reduce the dimensionality of the data and identify meaningful geometric descriptions in a parsimonious and inexpensive manner. Polynomial chaos expansion is then used to construct a mapping between the stochastic input parameters and the diffusion coordinates of the reduced space. An adaptive clustering technique is proposed to identify an optimal number of clusters of points in the latent space. The similarity of points allows us to construct a number of geometric harmonic emulators which are finally utilized as a set of inexpensive pretrained models to perform an inverse map of realizations of latent features to the ambient space and thus perform accurate out-of-sample predictions. Thus, the proposed method acts as an encoder-decoder system which is able to automatically handle very high-dimensional data while simultaneously operating successfully in the small-data regime. The method is demonstrated on two benchmark problems and on a system of advection-diffusion-reaction equations which model a first-order chemical reaction between two species. In all test cases, the proposed method is able to achieve highly accurate approximations which ultimately lead to the significant acceleration of UQ tasks.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Computing Strategy 2026

Quantum computing (QC) is a rapidly maturing technology with the potential for revolutionary impacts on stockpile stewardship science and national security. Recent developments in fault-tolerant architectures have compressed vendor roadmaps, and predictions of a production-ready quantum computer by the mid-2030s are becoming increasingly credible. This strategy provides a roadmap for integrating QC into the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program by investing in four strategic focus areas: 1. Develop Capabilities in Mission-Relevant Quantum Applications: ASC will prioritize developing quantum-ready applications in mission areas that have shown significant promise for quantum advantage, including simulations of materials in extreme environments, nuclear dynamics, solving linear and nonlinear partial differential equations, and uncertainty quantification. These applications directly support stockpile stewardship science and modernization objectives. 2. Conduct R&D in Algorithms, Software, and Hardware: Sustained research into quantum algorithms, robust software tools, and quantum hardware is essential. ASC will develop efficient quantum algorithms; invest in quantum compilers, debuggers, and performance tools; and explore specialized quantum hardware tailored to NNSA’s unique requirements. 3. Engage with Vendors and Partners: Early and active collaboration with commercial quantum hardware vendors and academic partners is critical. Through testbeds, co-design agreements, and quantum demonstration facilities, ASC will influence hardware design, gain early access to emerging technologies, and ensure that quantum platforms evolve to meet mission needs. 4. Build Knowledge, Experience, and Workforce: Expanding and upskilling the quantum-trained workforce is essential to long-term success. This includes hiring, internal training, university outreach, and postdoctoral support to ensure ASC maintains the expertise required to operate, program, and integrate quantum systems as they become available. While quantum computing will never replace classical computing, it has the potential to solve certain problems with speed and accuracy that would be unachievable using any conceivable classical high-performance computing (HPC) system. By investing strategically in QC, ASC will help propel the emergent QC industry, maintain U.S. technological leadership, ensure mission readiness, and position itself to rapidly adopt quantum technologies as they mature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bi-fidelity variational auto-encoder for uncertainty quantification

Quantifying the uncertainty of quantities of interest (QoIs) from physical systems is a primary objective in model validation. However, achieving this goal entails balancing the need for computational efficiency with the requirement for numerical accuracy. To address this trade-off, we propose a novel bi-fidelity formulation of variational auto-encoders (BF-VAE) designed to estimate the uncertainty associated with a QoI from low-fidelity (LF) and high-fidelity (HF) samples of the QoI. Here, this model allows for the approximation of the statistics of the HF QoI by leveraging information derived from its LF counterpart. Specifically, we design a bi-fidelity auto-regressive model in the latent space which is integrated within the VAE’s probabilistic encoder–decoder structure. An effective algorithm is proposed to maximize the variational lower bound of the HF log-likelihood in the presence of limited HF data, resulting in the synthesis of HF realizations with a reduced computational cost. Additionally, we introduce the concept of the bi-fidelity information bottleneck (BF-IB) to provide an information-theoretic interpretation of the proposed BF-VAE model. Our numerical results demonstrate that the BF-VAE leads to considerably improved accuracy, as compared to a VAE trained using only HF data, when limited HF data is available.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advances in Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework.

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology (FCT) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two high priorities for SFWST disposal R&D are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the SFWST ''Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment'' (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, ''GDSA Framework'', for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. ''GDSA Framework'' is supported by SFWST Campaign and its predecessor the Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) campaign. This report fulfills the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package (SF-20SN01030403) level 3 milestone — ''Advances in Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework'' (M3SF-20SN010304032). It presents high level objectives and strategy for development of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis tools, demonstrates uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) tools in GDSA Framework in FY20, and describes additional UQ/SA tools whose future implementation would enhance the UQ/SA capability of ''GDSA Framework''. This work was closely coordinated with the other Sandia National Laboratory GDSA work packages: the GDSA Framework Development work package (SF- 2051\101030404), the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis work package (SF-2051\101030405), and the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development work package (SF-20SN01030406). This report builds on developments reported in previous ''GDSA Framework'' milestones, particularly M2SF- 19SNO1030403.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2021)

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Office of Fuel Cycle Technology (FCT) is conducting research and development (R&D) on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two high priorities for SFWST disposal R&D are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the SFWST Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, GDSA Framework, for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. GDSA Framework is supported by SFWST Campaign and its predecessor the Used Fuel Disposition (UFD) campaign. This report fulfills the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package (SF-21SN01030404) level 3 milestone, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework (FY2021) (M3SF-21SN010304042). It presents high level objectives and strategy for development of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis tools, demonstrates uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) tools in GDSA Framework in FY21, and describes additional UQ/SA tools whose future implementation would enhance the UQ/SA capability of GDSA Framework. This work was closely coordinated with the other Sandia National Laboratory GDSA work packages: the GDSA Framework Development work package (SF-21SN01030405), the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis work package (SF-21SN01030406), and the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development work package (SF-21SN01030407). This report builds on developments reported in previous GDSA Framework milestones, particularly M3SF 20SN010304032.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupling SCALE with DAKOTA for Axial Burnup Profiles Assessment in Burnup Credit

This paper presents a computational study that demonstrates the application of the SCALE code system in conjunction with the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (DAKOTA) for the analysis of key factors influencing the evaluation of burnup credit (BUC) in pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The primary objective of this analysis is to characterize the model by utilizing parameterization, uncertainty quantification, and optimization studies. Using this approach, we can comprehensively assess the system and conduct informed predictive studies. This study highlights the effectiveness of the SCALE code system integrated within the DAKOTA framework in terms of efficiency and capability. With the coupling of the burnup code ORIGAMI with the CSAS or TSUNAMI-3D sequence embedded in a DAKOTA analysis, we can characterize the factors that influence the k eff of PWR 17x17 spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in the GBC-32 computational benchmark cask for the assessment of BUC in criticality safety analysis. The coupling methodology used in this study is not exclusive to BUC analysis. However, the choice to apply this methodology to the BUC problem is particularly significant because of the diverse range of aspects it encompasses in nuclear criticality safety analyses. This problem presents a unique opportunity to explore and address multiple facets of such analyses related to BUC and illustrates the capability of the SCALE code system with DAKOTA. This analysis makes use of historical reference data for the axial burnup profile, where the entire space within the bounds is considered. Both SCALE and DAKOTA are currently integrated in the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling Simulation (NEAMS) Workbench code system, which has a user-friendly graphical interface that simplifies the setup of simulations and configuration of input parameters as well as the visualization of simulation results.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Model Validation and Uncertainty Quantification on the KRUSTY Microreactor Design Using GRIFFIN Neutron Transport Code [Poster]

Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and INL have developed a GRIFFIN steady state neutronics model for the multiphysics simulations of the Kilopower Reactor Using Sterling TechnologY (KRUSTY) microreactor in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). The reliability of such deterministic neutronics models can be validated by comparing with computations from Monte Carlo codes (e.g. MCNP, SERPENT, OpenMC, Shift, etc). Furthermore, potential modeling/design improvements can be identified by incorporating uncertainty quantification (UQ), which can be performed by MOOSE’s Stochastic Tools Module (STM). KRUSTY is a prototype for a 5-kW thermal nuclear-powered space reactor. Its primary components consist of nuclear fuel, heat pipes, a control rod, a reflector, and the shielding. The fuel consists of 3 stacked U-7.65Mo cylinders with a hole in the center for the control rod. 8 liquid sodium heat pipes transfer fission energy from the solid fuel block to the Sterling power conversion system where the energy is extracted, and the cooled sodium flows back to the core via capillary action . The movable Boron Carbide control rod regulates the neutron population during startup or when a reactor temperature boost is needed . The beryllium oxide reflector is in 3 places in the reactor; it surrounds the core axially, it lies beneath the core on a platen, and it is present in the shim. The axial and lower reflectors rest on an adjustable stainless-steel platen that moves upward to cover the fuel and help the reactor reach criticality. Lastly, radial stainless steel surrounds the core offering protection from radiation exposure .

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

From noise to information: The transfer function formalism for uncertainty quantification in reconstructing the nuclear density

The neutron distribution of neutron-rich nuclei provides critical information on the structure of finite nuclei and neutron stars. Parity violating experiments—such as PREX and CREX—provide a clean and largely model-independent determination of neutron densities. Such experiments, however, are challenging and expensive, which is why sound statistical arguments are required to maximize the information gained. We introduce a new framework, the “transfer function formalism,” aimed at uncertainty quantification, model selection, and experimental design in the context of neutron densities. The transfer functions (TFs) are built analytically by expressing the linear response of the objective function (e.g., χ2) to small perturbations of the data. Using the TF formalism, we are able to analyze the expected overall uncertainty—quantified in terms of bias and variance—of the mean square radius and interior density of 48 Ca and 208 Pb. Using relativistic mean field models as a proxy for the weak-charge density—and assuming that a total of five measurements could be performed on the weak form factor of 48 Ca and 208 Pb—we identify the optimal models and experimental locations that minimize the uncertainty in the extraction of the radius and interior density. We also explore the use of the TF formalism to understand the influence of prior distributions for the model parameters, as well as the optimization of model hyperparameters not constrained by the data. Here,we establish how the choice of experimental locations and the model that is used can have a significant impact on the final uncertainties of the extracted quantities of interest. For challenging experiments such as CREX and PREX, a proper quantification of such uncertainties is critical. We have demonstrated how the TF formalism provides several advantages for this type of analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗