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Artificial Intelligence in Nuclear Safeguards; Evaluating Safeguards and Security Risks and Benefits for Advanced and Small Modular Reactor Deployments

Rapidly growing interest in advanced and small modular reactor (A/SMR) technologies presents challenges as well as opportunities for implementing international safeguards and security. A/SMR deployments are expected to be more numerous, more geographically dispersed, and more varied in their designs, placing new demands on the data systems and analytical tools used to support oversight (Alberti et al., 2023; Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission et al., 2024). Because of this variability, the importance and reliance on data systems for A/SMR deployments is expected to be higher than for previous reactor generations. Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) offer potential capabilities to address the high variability inherent in A/SMR technology. The beneficiaries of AI-assisted tools include facility operators, government regulators, IAEA inspectors, and A/SMR vendors. This report analyzes how AI/ML-assisted technologies can strengthen the implementation of IAEA safeguards and security measures. It also identifies AI-assisted tools to strengthen operator, facility, and regulator knowledge management practices and examines the potential risks AI/ML-based tools may introduce to IAEA safeguards and security efforts. It concludes with a set of hypothetical, standards-style requirements for AI/ML systems used in safeguards contexts, grounded in an inspector-centric view of system verification. Despite the potential benefits of AI/ML systems, understanding potential intentional and unintentional failure modes is critical for ensuring adequate protection of nuclear materials and facilities. Unique features of A/SMRs including sealed cores, remote and novel paradigms of operation, off-site reactor fabrication, novel fuel forms, and varied refueling requirements, introduce challenges for traditional safeguards technological approaches (Pensado et al., 2024; Federation of American Scientists, 2025). AI/ML systems deployed to address these challenges may introduce new risks requiring systematic evaluation rooted in both AI-specific risk frameworks, such as the NIST AI Risk Management Framework (NIST AI RMF), and established cyber risk management standards such as NIST SP 800-30 (National Institute of Standards and Technology [NIST], 2023; NIST, 2012).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

ORNL FY2024 Nuclear Data Evaluation Contributions: Cu, La, N, and Ta [Slides]

63,65 Cu angular distributions resolved for ENDF/B-VIII.1, consistent with both differential data and integral benchmark performance. 139 La RRR and URR evaluations will be merged with the LANL high energy evaluation, and to be submitted to the future ENDF-B release (post-VIII.1). 14 N RRR evaluation is planned to produce n+ 14 N, p+ 14 C, and a+ 11 B contributions to be submitted to the future ENDF-B release (post-VIII.1). 181 Ta covariances repaired and reported as intended in an errata to ENDF/B-VIII.1.

139-La

Evaluating advanced nuclear fission technologies for future decarbonized power grids

Advanced nuclear fission, which encompasses various innovative nuclear reactor designs, could contribute to the decarbonization of the United States electricity sector. However, little is known about how cost-competitive these reactors would be compared to other technologies, or about which aspects of their designs offer the most value to a decarbonized power grid. We employ an electricity system optimization model and a case study of a decarbonized U.S. Eastern Interconnection circa 2050 to generate initial indicators of future economic value for advanced reactors and the sensitivity of future value to various design parameters, the availability of competing technologies, and the underlying policy environment. These results can inform long-term cost targets and guide near-term innovation priorities, investments, and reactor design decisions. We find that advanced reactors should cost $\$5.7$–$\$7.3$/W to gain an initial market share (assuming 30 year asset life and 3.5 %–6.5 % real weighted average cost of capital), while those that include thermal storage in their designs can cost up to $\$6.0$/W–$\$7.7$/W (not including cost of storage). Since the marginal value of advanced fission reactors declines as market penetration increases, break-even costs fall ~32 % at 100 GW of cumulative capacity and ~51 % at 300 GW. Additionally, policies that provide investment tax credits for nuclear energy create the most favorable environment for advanced nuclear fission. In conclusion, these findings can inform near-term resource allocation decisions by stakeholders, innovators and investors working in the energy technology sector.

Capacity expansion

Machine learning-assisted identification of potential sources of bias in measurements of prompt-fission neutron spectra

Unrecognized sources of uncertainty (USU) can bias the reported mean and/or covariance of experimental nuclear data. These biases, in turn, can propagate through evaluated nuclear data to application simulations or may poorly inform nuclear theory that is fitted to the experimental data. Such unknown sources of bias must be tied to the inherent physical constituents of the measurements such as the characteristics of a detector response or a background reduction technique. Here, in this article, a sparse Bayesian learning model is used to support experts in their efforts to identify and characterize USU in experimental prompt fission neutron spectra (PFNS) for spontaneous fissioning of 252 Cf by linking observed biases to features of the measurement system. Three different bias components were found. The first acts as a verification case for the algorithm as it identifies a bias coming from a well-known source related to the use of 6 Li in the neutron detection system. The second two cases demonstrate how this method can benefit the evaluation of experimental nuclear data by identifying, quantifying, and relating unknown biases to potential causes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

ENDF/B-VIII.1

The ENDF/B-VIII.1 release is the newest evaluated nuclear data library produced, distributed, and recommended by CSEWG for use in nuclear science and technology applications. Among the many key advances, relative to the previous version ENDF/B-VIII.0, are: re-evaluation of 239Pu file by a joint international effort; updated 16,18O, 19F, 28-30Si, 50-54Cr, 55Mn, 54,56,57Fe, 63,65Cu, 139La, 233,235,238U, and 240,241Pu neutron nuclear data by the IAEA-coordinated INDEN collaboration; significant changes for 3He, 6Li, 9Be, 51V, 88Sr, 103Rh, 140,142Ce, Dy, 181Ta, Pt, 206-208Pb, and 234,236U neutron data; new nuclear data for the photo-nuclear, being 196 adopted from the IAEA2019 Photonuclear Data Library and one new file from JENDL-5; and new evaluations for the charged-particle and atomic sublibraries. Numerous thermal neutron scattering kernels were re-evaluated or provided for the very first time. Additionally, new covariance testing was implemented. ENDF/B-VIII.1 reduced bias in the simulations of many integral experiments with particular progress noted for fluorine, copper and stainless steel containing benchmarks. Data issues which had hindered the deployment of ENDF/B-VIII.0 for commercial nuclear power applications in high burn-up situations, were addressed. ENDF/B-VIII.1 data are distributed in both ENDF-6 and GNDS formats.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Forward modeling approach to nuclear reaction cross sections: Applications in neutron inelastic scattering

The development of nuclear reaction models for the production of evaluated nuclear data has traditionally been performed by comparing measured cross sections with predictions from reaction model codes whose physical input parameters are adjusted to obtain the best agreement between measured and modeled results. To more directly probe reaction model inputs, this work introduces a forward modeling approach to experimental reaction cross-section determination, where the most important physical input parameters to reaction model calculations are obtained via 𝜒 2 minimization between measured and calculated observables. This was demonstrated using data collected by the Gamma Energy Neutron Energy Spectrometer for Inelastic Scattering (GENESIS) at the 88-inch cyclotron at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, a detection array consisting of organic liquid scintillators and high-purity germanium (HPGe) detectors. Using a broad-spectrum neutron beam and a 99.98%-enriched 56 Fe target, GENESIS was used to perform a simultaneous measurement of 56 Fe 𝛾-ray production cross sections and secondary neutron energy and angle distributions. The results of the forward modeling approach to the determination of energy-differential 𝛾-ray production cross sections for the yrast 4 + → 2 + and 6 + → 4 + transitions, as well as eight other off-yrast transitions, were compared against those obtained using conventional techniques, and the results are in good agreement. In addition to discrete 𝛾-ray yield total scattered neutron energy-angular distributions as a function of incident neutron energy were also obtained using forward modeling and found to agree with evaluated data, with the exception of elastic scattering at small angles. The fitted reaction model parameters obtained through forward modeling were also used to calculate the cross section for the unobserved (𝑛, 2⁢𝑛) reaction; excellent agreement with the current evaluation was obtained, providing a validation of the predictive capabilities of the forward model approach. This work bridges the gap between nuclear data experiment and evaluation by providing a new means for extracting inelastic neutron-scattering cross sections and neutron-induced 𝛾-ray production data while directly probing reaction model physics.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Recommended Nuclear Structure and Decay Data for A=206 Isobars

Here, evaluated nuclear structure and decay data for all nuclei with mass number A=206 ( 206 Pt, 206 Au, 206 Hg, 206 Tl, 206 Pb, 206 Bi, 206 Po, 206 At, 206 Rn, 206 Fr, 206 Ra and 206 Ac), are presented. All available experimental data are compiled and evaluated, and best values for level and γ-ray energies, quantum numbers, lifetimes, γ-ray intensities and transition probabilities, as well as other nuclear properties, are recommended. Inconsistencies and discrepancies that exist in the literature are discussed. A number of computer codes (https://www-nds.iaea.org/public/ensdf_pgm/) developed by members of the NSDD network were used during the evaluation process. This work supersedes the earlier evaluation by F.G. Kondev (2008Ko21), published in Nuclear Data Sheets 109, 1527 (2008).

Kondev, F. G. [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL),

Experimental uncertainty quantification using templates of expected measurement uncertainties for fast neutron-induced total, capture, and scattering cross sections

Careful experimental uncertainty quantification (UQ) is key for developing trustworthy evaluated nuclear data. Templates to account for missing or under-reported experimental uncertainties were recently developed by the covariance committee of Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). In this work, we illustrate the practical application and limitations of these templates for selected neutron-induced reactions, including (n, tot), (n, γ), and (n, xn) in the fast energy range, to illustrate their use in data analyses for nuclear data evaluations. We show that while the templates provide consistent framework, proper implementation still requires detailed knowledge of experimental conditions and careful treatment of nonlinear effects in cross section derivation. Case studies highlight how template-assisted UQ improves consistency with previous evaluations such as ENDF/B and reveals open challenges in propagating uncertainties across different energy regimes. The main contribution of this paper is to connect formal template recommendations with their use in practical evaluation workflows, clarifying both their benefits and current limitations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

ENDF/B-VIII.1: Updated Nuclear Reaction Data Library for Science and Applications

The ENDF/B-VIII.1 library is the newest recommended evaluated nuclear data file by the Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG) for use in nuclear science and technology applications, and incorporates advances made in the six years since the release of ENDF/B-VIII.0. Among key advances made are that the 239 Pu file was reevaluated by a joint international effort and that updated 16,18 O, 19 F, 28–30 Si, 50–54 Cr, 55 Mn, 54,56,57 Fe, 63,65 Cu, 139 La, 233,235,238 U, and 240,241 Pu neutron nuclear data from the IAEA coordinated INDEN collaboration were adopted. Over 60 neutron dosimetry cross sections were adopted from the IAEA's IRDFF-II library. In addition, the new library includes significant changes for 3 He, 6 Li, 9 Be, 51 V, 88 Sr, 103 Rh, 140,142 Ce, Dy, 181 Ta, Pt, 206–208 Pb, and 234,236 U neutron data, and new nuclear data for the photonuclear, charged-particle and atomic sublibraries. Numerous thermal neutron scattering kernels were reevaluated or provided for the very first time. On the covariance side, work was undertaken to introduce better uncertainty quantification standards and testing for nuclear data covariances. The significant effort to reevaluate important nuclides has reduced bias in the simulations of many integral experiments with particular progress noted for fluorine, copper, and stainless steel containing benchmarks. Data issues hindered the successful deployment of the previous ENDF/B-VIII.0 for commercial nuclear power applications in high burnup situations. These issues were addressed by improving the 238 U and 239,240,241 Pu evaluated data in the resonance region. The new library performance as a function of burnup is similar to the reference ENDF/B-VII.1 library.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Corrections to official ENDF/B Evaluation Releases for SCALE Nuclear Data

The official ENDF/B nuclear data evaluation releases in the past two decades have incrementally incorporated more detailed information, new nuclide evaluations, and very often have improved the accuracy of radiation transport codes when modeling shielding, fission reactors, criticality benchmarks, and fusion systems. However, like any large collaborative data compilation, these releases have all included small errors. This report documents the small corrections to ENDF/B releases ENDF/B-VII.1, ENDF/B-VIII.0, and ENDF/B-VIII.1 that have been applied during nuclear data processing to produce data libraries for the SCALE code system.

Brown, Jesse M. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR

Validation of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS Code Procedure With the ENDF/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-Group Library: Boiling Water Reactor

The SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code procedure has been used in the confirmatory analysis for boiling water reactors by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In this study, the SCALE/Polaris v6.3.0–PARCS v3.4.2 code procedure with the Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF)/B-VII.1 AMPX 56-group library was validated by comparing the simulated results with the measured data for operating boiling water reactors, including Peach Bottom Unit 2 cycles 1–3, Hatch Unit 1 cycles 1–3, and Quad Cities Unit 1 cycles 1–3. The uncertainties and biases of the SCALE/Polaris–PARCS code package for boiling water reactor physics analysis were evaluated in the validation for key nuclear parameters such as reactivity and traversing in-core probe data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Release of ENDF81SaB: ENDF/B-VIII.1-Based ACE Data Files for Thermal Scattering

On August 30, 2024, the National Nuclear Data Center (NNDC) released the ENDF/B-VIII.1 nuclear data library. The library was released in the standard Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF) format. These files can be accessed on the NNDC's website (www.nndc.bnl.gov). The files provided in the thermal neutron scattering sublibrary were processed into A Compact ENDF (ACE)-formatted files, verified, and validated by the XCP-5 Nuclear Data Team, resulting in the ENDF81SaB application library. This report details the processing of these files and the quality assurance approach taken. This is not intended to be a full validation effort; rather, this library is intended to simply reproduce the released files for further validation testing by the community. The validation basis and details of the evaluations are documented in the forthcoming ``Big Paper''.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS

Deciphering spin-parity assignments of nuclear levels

Spin-parity assignments of nuclear levels are critical for understanding nuclear structure and reactions. However, inconsistent notation conventions and ambiguous reporting in research papers often lead to confusion and misinterpretations. Here, this paper examines the policies of the Evaluated Nuclear Structure Data File (ENSDF) and the evaluations by Endt and collaborators, highlighting key differences in their approaches to spin-parity notation. Sources of confusion are identified, including ambiguous use of strong and weak arguments and the conflation of new experimental results with prior constraints. Recommendations are provided to improve clarity and consistency in reporting spin-parity assignments, emphasizing the need for explicit notation conventions, clear differentiation of argument strengths, community education, and separate reporting of new findings. These steps aim to enhance the accuracy and utility of nuclear data for both researchers and evaluators.

Experimental Nuclear Physics

Westcott g factors extended to arbitrary neutron energy spectra

Westcott 𝑔 factors are used in Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) and Prompt Gamma-ray Activation Analysis (PGAA) to evaluate the impact of non-1∕𝑣 behavior in the neutron-capture cross sections of certain nuclei on activation product yields. This non-1∕𝑣 behavior arises from the presence of neutron resonances in the neutron- capture cross sections that overlap with the source neutron spectrum at low (< 5 eV) energies. Historically, Westcott 𝑔 factors that have been cataloged for NAA and PGAA applications are the result of calculations that assume a Maxwellian neutron flux distribution with a given temperature. In this work, we use this approach with updated neutron-capture cross sections from the Evaluated Nuclear Data File, version VIII.1 (ENDF/B-VIII.1) to tabulate Westcott 𝑔 factor values for a broad range of Maxwellian distribution temperatures, comparing the results against currently-available 𝑔 factors from International Atomic Energy Agency tables and other sources. Here, it was discovered during this analysis that the use of guided thermal and cold-neutron beams at certain facilities necessitates an approach for evaluating Westcott 𝑔 factors based on arbitrary non-Maxwellian spectra. In this paper, we present an approach for calculating 𝑔 factors with user-specified neutron spectra, and we demonstrate these methods to obtain Westcott 𝑔-factors for guided- and cold-neutron beams at the Budapest Research Reactor and the Forschungsreaktor München II reactor. As part of this work, open-source software has been developed that can be used to perform these calculations for applications in PGAA and NAA experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS