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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic risk assessment for geologic CO 2 sequestration

At a geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS) site, geologic uncertainty usually leads to large uncertainty in the predictions of properties that influence metrics for leakage risk assessment, such as CO 2 saturations and pressures in potentially leaky wellbores, CO 2 /brine leakage rates, and leakage consequences such as changes in drinking water quality in groundwater aquifers. The large uncertainty in these risk-related system properties and risk metrics can lead to over-conservative risk management decisions to ensure safe operations of GCS sites. The objective of this work is to develop a novel approach based on dynamic risk assessment to effectively reduce the uncertainty in the predicted risk-related system properties and risk metrics. We demonstrate our framework for dynamic risk assessment on two case studies: a 3D synthetic example and a synthetic field example based on the Rock Springs Uplift (RSU) storage site in Wyoming, USA. Results show that the U.S. National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) coupled with a conformance evaluation can be used to effectively quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the predictions of risk-related system properties and risk metrics in GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-informed machine learning for fault-leakage reduced-order modeling

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a promising technology for mitigating CO 2 emissions. The overall success of GCS depends on safe operations that are informed by risk assessment and have proper mitigation plans in place. Performing quantitative probabilistic risk assessment for a GCS site using traditional reservoir simulators can be challenging due to the high computational costs. To overcome this challenge, the US Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) project has developed an integrated assessment modeling approach that utilizes computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROM) for simulating various parts of a GCS storage site to quantify uncertainty. Here, in this study, we develop a reduced-order model for fault leakage risk assessment. We use a deep learning approach to build the reduced-order model. We perform a sensitivity analysis and find that the deep learning model yields high accuracy with a much smaller computational cost than full-physics simulation. We also evaluate the performance of the model in scenarios where simulations are not possible to run, providing analysis not previously performed in fault-leakage ROM analyses. Based on a sensitivity analysis of the model, we suggest a simplified conceptual model for fault leakage and site monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heuristic algorithms for design of integrated monitoring of geologic carbon storage sites

Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) is a tool developed under the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) to enhance geologic carbon storage safety and efficiency. Using potential leakage scenarios generated externally by the users preferred history-matching approach, DREAM constructs ideal combinations of sensor locations in the right place at the right time to detect as many leaks as possible, detect them as early as possible, and minimize cost. This user-friendly tool, developed in Java, features a window-based GUI for input and a 3D visualization tool for viewing the domain space and optimized monitoring plans. DREAM's latest version accommodates real-world usage by allowing for joint optimization of wellbore point sensor placements and surface geophysics survey geometries, and by using more efficient multi-objective optimization algorithms. We show an example where, these two improvements combined allow us to support containment assurance and go from detecting 80–90 % of the potential CO 2 leakage to +99.7 %, a step-change improvement that can make the deciding difference in whether a site is suitable for geologic carbon storage. Though developed for geologic carbon storage, this tool would be equally applicable in many surface or offshore environmental monitoring projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

pnnl/dream_v3

The Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) tool was developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). DREAM is an optimization tool created to identify optimal monitoring schemes that minimize the time to first detection of CO2 leakage from a subsurface storage formation. DREAM acts as a post-processer on user-provided output from subsurface leakage simulations. While DREAM was developed for CO2 leakage scenarios, it is applicable to any subsurface leakage simulation of the same output format

Kupis, Shyla↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) is an open-source toolkit developed as part of the US Department of Energy SMART and NRAP programs. ORION is designed to help both expert and non-expert users understand the seismic hazard at a site. This tool analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection of fluid, and can be used to identify potential mitigation strategies for observed or forecasted seismic activity. ORION is built using Python, and has an optional GUI where users can easily configure model parameters, evaluate temporal and spatial forecasts, and inspect key data (seismicity, fluid injection, pressure models, etc.).

Kroll, Kayla↗
DOE OSTI2023

User’s Manual for Seal_Flux: A Seal Barrier Reduced-Order Model (Update)

This report provides a brief description on the use of the Seal_Flux computer program developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). The Seal_Flux code simulates the flow of CO 2 through a low permeability rock horizon or seal formation overlying the storage reservoir into which CO 2 is injected. A two-phase, relative permeability approach with Darcy’s law is used for one-dimensional (1D) flow computations of CO 2 through the horizon in the vertical direction. The code also allows the simulation of time-dependent processes that can influence such flow. However, as part of its design, Seal_Flux is what can be termed a “reduced-order model” (ROM) and is not intended as a full-functioning flow code. The theory and simulation in the code is streamlined and directed towards the implementation of Monte Carlo risk analyses of CO 2 transport or as termed in this context as “leakage.” While presented in this report as a stand-alone tool, the Seal_Flux code is intended to function in the future as one of several models as part of an integrated, systems-level model of CO 2 storage performance. Finally, the code is written in Python 3.10 to provide an open framework for further development by others and to assist in linking the code with other modules in an integrated assessment model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

SMART Deliverable 6.1.2a: Application of the ORION tool to the IBDP Carbon Storage Site

Forecasting and managing potential induced seismic activity is one of the challenges facing commercialscale geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), as well as other geologic energy extraction and byproduct disposal technologies. Historically, the process to develop robust, science-based forecasts of induced seismicity has required an integrated effort from experts in seismology, geomechanics, and reservoir engineering to manage data, develop and evaluate models of subsurface processes, and to calibrate and interpret the results from a range of models to understand site behavior relative to prescribed standards and in the context of uncertainty in geologic characterization data, forecasting models, and operational scenario uncertainty. The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) toolkit is an open-source, observation-based forecasting toolkit that is being co-developed by two U.S. DOE-funded initiatives: the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) and the Scienceinformed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative. ORION is designed to provide functionality to support decision making about seismic hazard analysis and risk management for GCS stakeholders ranging from the public to site operators to expert seismologists. The tool, which is written as open-source code in the Python programming language, is composed of a desktop graphical user interface (GUI) and an underlying forecasting engine. The forecasting engine uses available reservoir properties, well and fluid injection scenario details, and observed seismic catalog data as inputs to produce a set of temporal and spatio-temporal seismic forecasts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Git and Software Tools for CTS

This presentation will provide an overview of the progress made helping the EDX4CCS, SMART, and NRAP projects virtualize their CO2 Transport and Storage software tools to boost their stakeholder availability through the DisCO2ver platform. This presentation will also cover helpful software development tools with a focus on researchers and developers who have not had formal training or many years of experience in software engineering best practices.

Zaengle, Dakota↗
DOE OSTI2024

HERO CarbonSAFE Phase 2 Project in the Columbia River Basalt Group

The Hermiston, Oregon Basalt CarbonSAFE Phase II project (HERO CarbonSAFE) seeks to accelerate the deployment of commercial carbon dioxide (CO2) storage projects in basaltic rocks. Basalt CO2 storage has several advantages to conventional saline storage reservoirs including 1. The potential for rapid mineralization of CO2, 2. Associated decreases in pressure and CO2 migration risks, 3. Reduced long-term monitoring requirements with respect to plume tracking, 4. Widespread geographic distribution and, 5. Large storage potential due to thickness, porosity, and CO2 interactions with basalt. And for locations such as the Pacific Northwest, Hawaii, Iceland, India and Japan, basalts may offer the only economically feasible option for local CO2 storage. However, there are limited field-scale assessments of CO2 storage in basalt, and current carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) permitting and regulatory frameworks were developed for conventional saline reservoirs. HERO CarbonSAFE is designed to address research gaps and uncertainties associated with basalt storage. Specifically, the project will assess the feasibility of CO2 injection in the deep layered basalts, long-term storage (mineralization), practical approaches for large-scale implementation (50+ million metric tons of CO2 over 30 years), lithology-specific risks, and the technoeconomic potential for CO2 storage in basalts. The HERO CarbonSAFE project will assess feasibility of developing a commercial-scale (50+ million metric tons of CO2) geological storage complex within the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a layered continental flood basalt complex that underlies Calpine’s natural gas-fired Hermiston Power Project (HPP) in Hermiston, OR (Figure 1). Under this 2-year CarbonSAFE Phase II project, the HERO team will conduct a data acquisition campaign that includes drilling a stratigraphic well to a total depth of ~1,500 m into the thick layered basalts proximal to HPP. A comprehensive well logging and hydrologic testing program will be augmented with new core collected from flow zones and sealing units, and comprehensive laboratory testing to help refine the kinetic rates of mineralization. The newly acquired information will be integrated with existing data from regional wells to correlate basalt injection zone properties to develop storage hub/commercial-scale models. Using these models, the project team will evaluate injection scenarios to define the technical and economic potential for storing a minimum of 50 million metric tons of CO2 over a 30-year period, along with a robust sensitivity analysis on key parameters governing reservoir viability for sustainable injection over a commercial project lifetime. Specific technical objectives of HERO are: (1) assessing the reservoir response of a series of stacked layered reservoir flowtop sequences occurring in this area of the CRBG to commercial-scale injection volumes; (2) extending prior efforts by the project team to characterize the deep layered basalts encountered in regional studies, to leverage prior investments by U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Carbon Storage program; (3) leveraging DOE’s mineralization characterization efforts to advance model parametrization for commercial scale injection of CO2 in basalts; (4) conducting risk assessments associated with scaling up to commercial storage hub injection goals, while validating DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) tools, to identify potential constraints that would prevent the CRBG from serving as a commercial-scale storage complex; (5) developing mitigation plans to address identified risks; (6) developing a commercial-scale injection and monitoring, verification and accounting (MVA) strategy; (7) utilizing computational models to define and minimize, if possible, the Area of Review (AoR) under Class VI regulations; and (8) developing a robust CO2 management strategy for CRBG that also considers a regional source/sink approach that is responsive to stakeholder needs and industrial demand. Specific institutional objectives are: (1) identifying and developing plans to mitigate the nontechnical challenges associated with the build-out of a commercial-scale storage complex within the CRBG with integrated CO2 sources; (2) implementing the community outreach plan; (3) conducting regulatory research, including a survey of issues related to pore space ownership, MVA and long-term assurance of mineralization-based storage, to support an eventual application for a UIC Class VI permit; (4) advancing the project’s plan for CO2 liability management; and (5) continuing to refine and update the project’s economic model. The final objective is the preparation of a comprehensive Site Characterization Plan that draws upon the technical and institutional feasibility assessments to prepare the project for future commercialization efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Task 5: Developing a Tool to Quantify Liability of Geologic Carbon Storage

This talk provides an overview of work being done on NRAP Phase 3 Task 5. Task 5 involves the liability or cost of responding to potential adverse events. The focus of Task 5 is on the cost of responding to potential leakage of CO2 and brine out of the storage formation or induced seismic incidents.

Morgan, David↗
DOE OSTI2023

Geomechanical Characterization of the Mount Simon Sandstone and Eau Claire Formation of Northern Illinois Basin

The purpose of this paper is to analyze publicly available geomechanical data from two carbon storage sites in the Illinois Basin: the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) in Macon County, IL and the FutureGen2.0 project in Morgan County, IL, cancelled before injection began. This study estimates the magnitudes and directions of the least compressive principal stress gradient using hydraulic fracture-based stress measurement tests, borehole breakouts, and sonic logs in the Eau Claire Formation (primary confining zone) and the Mount Simon Sandstone (targeted reservoir). The range of stresses expected in the underlying Precambrian basement is also investigated. The evaluation of the state of stress is carried out in a probabilistic manner using the State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT) developed under the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) program. Finally, the paper also provides a discussion on distinctions between fracture initiation pressure, propagation pressure, and fracture closure pressure, given that hydraulic fracture testing results show a significant difference between these three values. The discussion also addresses why the fracture closure pressure should be preferred in injection pressure determinations, a critical point in geological carbon storage projects.

de Toledo Camargo, Julia↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep-learning-enhanced assessment of wellbore barrier effectiveness in geologic storage systems with intermediate aquifers

For geologic systems where carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is injected underground, existing wells represent potential pathways for fluid migration. Here, this study introduces a novel deep learning model to quantify the likelihood and potential magnitude of fluid migration through wellbores at sites with intermediate aquifers or thief zones between the injection units and underground drinking water sources. Synthetic datasets, generated using reservoir simulations, captured a wide range of subsurface conditions, well attributes, operational parameters, and fluid migration scenarios. Among the regression models developed to predict brine and CO 2 leakage rates and CO 2 saturations along leaky wellbores, convolutional neural network (CNN) outperformed both Light Gradient Boosting Machine and deep neural network. Additionally, a CNN-based classification model was created to predict whether brine and CO 2 would leak along a wellbore, further improving performance over regression alone. The best models were integrated into the National Risk Assessment Partnership Open-source Integrated Assessment Model for rapid, stochastic assessment of storage system containment and leakage risks. A case study demonstrated the model’s ability to simulate fluid migration through existing wells with multiple intermediate aquifers. This computationally efficient wellbore model offers value in support of site performance evaluation and risk-informed decision making by stakeholders.

CO2 leakage↗