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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

On‐site surrogates for large‐scale calibration

Abstract Motivated by a computer model calibration problem from the oil and gas industry, involving the design of a honeycomb seal, we develop a new Bayesian methodology to cope with limitations in the canonical apparatus stemming from several factors. We propose a new strategy of on‐site design and surrogate modeling for a computer simulator acting on a high‐dimensional input space that, although relatively speedy, is prone to numerical instabilities, missing data, and nonstationary dynamics. Our aim is to strike a balance between data‐faithful modeling and computational tractability in a calibration framework—tailoring the computer model to a limited field experiment. Situating our on‐site surrogates within the canonical calibration apparatus requires updates to that framework. We describe a novel yet intuitive Bayesian setup that carefully decomposes otherwise prohibitively large matrices by exploiting the sparse blockwise structure. Empirical illustrations demonstrate that this approach performs well on toy data and our motivating honeycomb example.

Huang, Jiangeng↗
DOE OSTI2025

Covariance operator estimation via adaptive thresholding

This paper studies sparse covariance operator estimation for nonstationary processes with sharply varying marginal variance and small correlation lengthscale. We introduce a covariance operator estimator that adaptively thresholds the sample covariance function using an estimate of the variance component. Building on recent results from empirical process theory, we derive an operator norm bound on the estimation error in terms of the sparsity level of the covariance and the expected supremum of a normalized process. Furthermore, our theory and numerical simulations demonstrate the advantage of adaptive threshold estimators over universal threshold and sample covariance estimators in nonstationary settings.

Al-Ghattas, Omar [University of Chicago, IL (Unite↗
DOE OSTI2026

Time irreversibility as an indicator of approaching tipping points in Earth subsystems

With shifting environmental trends, many Earth system elements may be poised to undergo critical transitions or ‘tipping’. Reliable anticipation of these tipping elements is vital to inform policy decisions. Many of the current methods for tipping point detection are based on loss of resilience or ‘critical slowdown’ of the system as it approaches a tipping point. However, these methods are prone to false alarms; the detected slowdown may be an artifact of nonstationary noise unrelated to tipping behavior. Here, we explore the efficacy of early warning signs based on a nonequilibrium thermodynamics framework. The model-free detection method relies on the increased intrinsic time-irreversibility due to detailed balance breaking, preceding the onset of tipping or instabilities. We demonstrate that these EWSs are effective for tipping point detection and robust against false alarms due to nonstationary noise, using idealized models for two key elements of the Earth system that are prone to tipping: the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Arctic sea-ice loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lagrangian and Eulerian drag models that are consistent between Euler-Lagrange and Euler-Euler (two-fluid) approaches for homogeneous systems

The undisturbed flow of a particle is of fundamental importance since it controls both the undisturbed flow force and the perturbation force (which includes quasisteady, added-mass, and history forces). Here we use the pairwise interaction extended point particle framework to evaluate the undisturbed flow of each particle through superposition of the perturbation flow induced by all its neighbors. This approach allows calculation of various statistics related to undisturbed fluid velocity under conditions of both stationary and nonstationary particles. In a random distribution of stationary particles, while the macroscale undisturbed flow is slowly varying, the microscale undisturbed flow that arises due to the perturbation flow of neighbors varies substantially from one particle to another and this in turn leads to large variation in the hydrodynamic force exerted on the particles. The effect of particle motion is generally to increase the particle-to-particle variation in the undisturbed fluid velocity of the particles. We observe that this increase is greater for the transverse component than for the streamwise component. As a result, with increasing random particle motion, the distribution of undisturbed fluid-velocity fluctuation becomes isotropic. Three different normalized forces are defined: $Φ^L$ is the Lagrangian normalized force on an individual particle suitable for application in a microscale-informed Euler-Lagrange simulation, $Φ^E$ is the Eulerian normalized average force suitable for application in an Euler-Euler simulation, and $Φ^{LE}$ is the Lagrangian normalized force on an individual particle suitable for application in the standard Euler-Lagrange simulation. In this work, we establish precise relations between these different definitions. The drag laws developed based on particle-resolved direct numerical simulation results and experiments are appropriate for application only as the Eulerian normalized average force. We introduce the force consistency relation and use it to obtain an expression for $Φ^L$, which when applied to each particle and averaged over all the particles equals $Φ^E$. The results are first obtained in the limit of stationary particles and then extended to the general case of nonstationary particles.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?

Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.

Dollan, Ishrat J↗
DOE OSTI2024

Measurement-driven large-eddy simulations of a diurnal cycle during a wake-steering field campaign

Abstract. High-fidelity flow modeling with data assimilation enables accurate representation of the wind farm operating environment under realistic, nonstationary atmospheric conditions. Capturing the temporal evolution of the turbulent atmospheric boundary layer is critical to understanding the behavior of wind turbines under operating conditions with simultaneously varying inflow and control inputs. This paper has three parts: the identification of a case study during a field evaluation of wake steering; the development of a tailored mesoscale-to-microscale coupling strategy that resolved local flow conditions within a large-eddy simulation (LES), using observations that did not completely capture the wind and temperature fields throughout the simulation domain; and the application of this coupling strategy to validate high-fidelity aeroelastic predictions of turbine performance and wake interactions with and without wake steering. The case study spans 4.5 h after midnight local time, during which wake steering was toggled on and off five times, achieving yaw offset angles ranging from 0 to 17°. To resolve nonstationary nighttime conditions that exhibited shear instabilities, the turbulence field was evolved starting from the diurnal cycle of the previous day. These background conditions were then used to drive wind farm simulations with two different models: an LES with actuator disk turbines and a steady-state engineering wake model. Subsequent analysis identified two representative periods during which the up- and downstream turbines were most nearly aligned with the mean wind direction and had observed yaw offsets of 0 and 15°. Both periods corresponded to partial waking on the downstream turbine, which had errors in the LES-predicted power of 4 % and 6 %, with and without wake steering. The LES was also able to capture conditions during which an upstream turbine wake induced a speedup at a downstream turbine and increased power production by up to 13 %.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Monitoring covariance in multivariate time series: Comparing machine learning and statistical approaches

Abstract In complex systems with multiple variables monitored at high‐frequency, variables are not only temporally autocorrelated, but they may also be nonlinearly related or exhibit nonstationarity as the inputs or operation changes. One approach to handling such variables is to detrend them prior to monitoring and then apply control charts that assume independence and stationarity to the residuals. Monitoring controlled systems is even more challenging because the control strategy seeks to maintain variables at prespecified mean levels, and to compensate, correlations among variables may change, making monitoring the covariance essential. In this paper, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) is compared with a multivariate random forest (MRF) and a neural network (NN) for detrending multivariate time series prior to monitoring the covariance of the residuals using a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. Machine learning models have an advantage when the data's structure is unknown or may change. We design a novel simulation study with nonlinear, nonstationary, and autocorrelated data to compare the different detrending models and subsequent covariance monitoring. The machine learning models have superior performance for nonlinear and strongly autocorrelated data and similar performance for linear data. An illustration with data from a reverse osmosis process is given.

Weix, Derek↗
DOE OSTI2019

On the Cauchy Problem for the Wave Equation with Data on the Boundary

The Cauchy problem for the wave equation in Ω × ℝ with data given on some part of the boundary ∂Ω × ℝ is considered. A reconstruction algorithm for this problem based on analytic expressions is given. This result is applicable to the problem of determining a nonstationary wave field arising in geophysics, photoacoustic tomography, tsunami wave source recovery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fluctuation–dissipation relation for a quantum Brownian oscillator in a parametrically squeezed thermal field

In this paper we study the nonequilibrium evolution of a quantum Brownian oscillator, modeling the internal degree of freedom of a harmonic atom or an Unruh–DeWitt detector, coupled to a nonequilibrium and nonstationary quantum field bath and inquire whether a fluctuation–dissipation relation (FDR) can exist after/if it approaches equilibration. This is a nontrivial issue because a squeezed field bath cannot reach equilibration and yet, as this work shows, the system oscillator indeed can, which is a necessary condition for FDRs. We discuss three different settings: (A) The bath field essentially remains in a squeezed thermal state throughout, whose squeeze parameter is a mode- and time-independent constant. This situation is often encountered in quantum optics and quantum thermodynamics. (B) The bath field is initially in a thermal state, but is subjected to a parametric process leading to mode- and time-dependent squeezing. This scenario is encountered in cosmology and dynamical Casimir effects. The squeezing in the bath in both types of processes will affect the oscillator’s nonequilibrium evolution. We show that at late times it approaches equilibration and this stationarity condition warrants the existence of a FDR. The trait of squeezing is marked by the oscillator’s effective equilibrium temperature, and the proportionality factor in the FDR is only related to the stationary component of the noise kernel of the bath field. Setting (C) is more subtle: A finite system–bath coupling strength can set the oscillator in a squeezed state even though the bath field is stationary and does not engage in any parametric process. The squeezing of the system in this case is in general time-dependent but becomes constant when the internal dynamics is fully relaxed. We begin with comments on the broad range of physical processes involving squeezed thermal baths and end with some remarks on the significance of FDRs in capturing the essence of quantum backreaction in nonequilibrium and stochastic systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic learning on manifolds constrained by nonlinear partial differential equations for small datasets

A novel extension of the Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM) is presented. It makes it possible to synthesize solutions to a wide range of nonlinear stochastic boundary value problems described by partial differential equations (PDEs) for which a stochastic computational model (SCM) is available and which depend on a vector-valued random control parameter. The cost of a single numerical evaluation of this SCM is assumed to be such that only a limited number of points can be computed for constructing the training dataset (small data). Each point of the training dataset is made up of realizations from a vector-valued stochastic process (the stochastic solution) and the associated random control parameter on which it depends. The presented PLoM constrained by PDE allows for generating a large number of learned realizations of the stochastic process and its corresponding random control parameter. These learned realizations are generated so as to minimize the vector-valued random residual of the PDE in the mean-square sense. Appropriate novel methods are developed to solve this challenging problem. Three applications are presented. The first one is a simple uncertain nonlinear dynamical system with a nonstationary stochastic excitation. The second one concerns the 2D nonlinear unsteady Navier–Stokes equations for incompressible flows in which the Reynolds number is the random control parameter. Here, the last one deals with the nonlinear dynamics of a 3D elastic structure with uncertainties. The results obtained make it possible to validate the PLoM constrained by stochastic PDE but also provide further validation of the PLoM without constraint.

Machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multiscale geographically and temporally weighted regression (MGTWR): exploring the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of EV market adoption

As an innovative vehicle technology, electric vehicles are experiencing growing sales and have made significant inroads into the traditional automotive market in the United States and around the world. However, EV adoption rates vary significantly across space and over time, influenced by a complex interplay of socio-economic and infrastructural factors alongside federal and state policies. Here, this paper presents a comprehensive spatial–temporal investigation of EV market adoption within one city in the US, that of Chicago, utilizing Multiscale Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (MGTWR) alongside Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR). The aim is to unravel the spatial and temporal dynamics affecting EV adoption and to explore how the influence of various determinants of EV adoption, such as demographic factors and economic conditions, vary spatially. Moreover, by utilizing MGTWR, we provide insights into the evolution of these relationships over time, offering a predictive outlook on future EV market growth. Our findings, with an 86.6% prediction accuracy for EV market adoption, tailored policy measures to support accelerated EV adoption. Methodologically, this work advances MGWR frameworks by integrating temporal dynamics to examine nonstationary processes in spatially disaggregated contexts. These findings offer evidence–based guidance for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders in the automotive industry, supporting the transition toward a more sustainable and efficient transportation system.

EV Market Adoption↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Gaussian Process Inference of Liquid Structure from Scattering Data

We present a nonparametric Bayesian framework to infer radial distribution functions from experimental scattering measurements with uncertainty quantification using nonstationary Gaussian processes. The Gaussian process prior mean and kernel functions are designed to mitigate well-known numerical challenges with the Fourier transform, including discrete measurement binning and detector windowing, while encoding fundamental yet minimal physical knowledge of the liquid structure. We demonstrate uncertainty propagation of the Gaussian process posterior to unmeasured quantities of interest. Experimental radial distribution functions of liquid argon and water with uncertainty quantification are provided as both a proof of principle for the method and a benchmark for molecular models.

Chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2023

Many-Exciton Quantum Dynamics in a Ruddlesden–Popper Tin Iodide

We present a study on the many-body exciton interactions in a Ruddlesden–Popper tin halide, namely, (PEA) 2 SnI 4 (PEA = phenylethylammonium), using coherent two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy. The optical dephasing times of the third-order polarization observed in these systems are determined by exciton many-body interactions and lattice fluctuations. We investigate the excitation-induced dephasing (EID) and observe a significant reduction of the dephasing time with increasing excitation density as compared to its lead counterpart (PEA) 2 PbI 4 , which we have previously reported in a separate publication [J. Chem. Phys. 2020, 153, 164706]. Surprisingly, we find that the EID interaction parameter is four orders of magnitude higher in (PEA) 2 SnI 4 than that in (PEA) 2 PbI 4 . This increase in the EID rate may be due to exciton localization arising from a more statically disordered lattice in the tin derivative. This is supported by the observation of multiple closely spaced exciton states and the broadening of the linewidth with increasing population time (spectral diffusion), which suggests a static disordered structure relative to the highly dynamic lead-halide. Additionally, we find that the exciton nonlinear coherent lineshape shows evidence of a biexcitonic state with low binding energy (<10 meV) not observed in the lead system. We model the lineshapes based on a stochastic scattering theory that accounts for the interaction with a nonstationary population of dark background excitations. Our study provides evidence of differences in the exciton quantum dynamics between tin- and lead-based Ruddlesden–Popper metal halides (RPMHs) and links them to the exciton–exciton interaction strength and the static disorder aspect of the crystalline structure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identifying Different Classes of Seismic Noise Signals Using Unsupervised Learning

Abstract Proper classification of nontectonic seismic signals is critical for detecting microearthquakes and developing an improved understanding of ongoing weak ground motions. We use unsupervised machine learning to label five classes of nonstationary seismic noise common in continuous waveforms. Temporal and spectral features describing the data are clustered to identify separable types of emergent and impulsive waveforms. The trained clustering model is used to classify every 1 s of continuous seismic records from a dense seismic array with 10–30 m station spacing. We show that dominate noise signals can be highly localized and vary on length scales of hundreds of meters. The methodology demonstrates the complexity of weak ground motions and improves the standard of analyzing seismic waveforms with a low signal‐to‐noise ratio. Application of this technique will improve the ability to detect genuine microseismic events in noisy environments where seismic sensors record earthquake‐like signals originating from nontectonic sources.

Johnson, Christopher W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Narrow Bipolar Events Using Mode Decomposition Methods

Multi-resolution analysis methods can reveal the underlying physical dynamics of nonstationary signals, such as those from lightning. In this paper we demonstrate the application of two multi-resolution analysis methods: Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) in a comparative way in the analysis of electric field change waveforms from lightning. EEMD and VMD decompose signals into a set of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). The IMFs can be combined using distance and divergence metrics to obtain noise reduction or to obtain new waveforms that isolate the physical processes of interest while removing irrelevant components of the original signal. We apply the EEMD and VMD methods to the observations of three close Narrow Bipolar Events (NBEs) that were reported by Rison et al. The ΔE observations reveal the occurrence of complex oscillatory processes after the main NBE sferic. We show that both EEMD and VMD are able to isolate the oscillations from the main NBE, with VMD being more effective of the two methods since it requires the least user supervision. The oscillations are found to begin at the end of the NBEs' downward fast positive breakdown and appear to be produced by a half-wavelength standing wave within a weakly-conducting resonant ionization cavity left behind in the wake of the streamer-based NBE event. In conclusion, additional analysis shows that one of the NBEs was likely initiated by an energetic cosmic ray shower, and also corrects a misinterpretation in the literature that fast breakdown is an artifact of NBE-like events in interferometer observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emergent Trends Complicate the Interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

Abstract Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationary climate conditions, either naturally occurring or forced by climate change. Here we investigate the emerging climatology and associated trends in drought classes defined by the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product that, since 2000, has been used to inform drought management in the United States. The USDM classifies drought intensity based in part on threshold percentiles in key hydroclimate quantities. Here we assess how those USDM‐defined drought threshold percentiles have changed over the last 23 years, examining precipitation, runoff, soil moisture (SM), terrestrial water storage (TWS), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and near‐surface air temperature. We also assess underlying trends in the frequency of drought classifications across the U.S. Our analysis suggests that the frequency of drought class occurrence is exceeding the threshold percentiles defined by the USDM in a number of regions in the United States, particularly in the American West, where the last 23 years have emerged as a prolonged dry period. These trends are also reflected in percentile‐based thresholds in precipitation, runoff, SM, TWS, VPD, and temperature. Our results emphasize that while the USDM appears to be accurately reflecting observed nonstationarity in the physical climate, such trends raise critical questions about whether and how drought diagnosis, classification, and monitoring should address long‐term intervals of wet and dry periods or trends.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Autotrophic and mixotrophic metabolism of an anammox bacterium revealed by in vivo 13 C and 2 H metabolic network mapping

Anaerobic ammonium-oxidizing (anammox) bacteria mediate a key step in the biogeochemical nitrogen cycle and have been applied worldwide for the energy-efficient removal of nitrogen from wastewater. However, outside their core energy metabolism, little is known about the metabolic networks driving anammox bacterial anabolism and use of different carbon and energy substrates beyond genome-based predictions. Here, we experimentally resolved the central carbon metabolism of the anammox bacterium Candidatus ‘Kuenenia stuttgartiensis’ using time-series 13 C and 2 H isotope tracing, metabolomics, and isotopically nonstationary metabolic flux analysis. Our findings confirm predicted metabolic pathways used for CO 2 fixation, central metabolism, and amino acid biosynthesis in K. stuttgartiensis , and reveal several instances where genomic predictions are not supported by in vivo metabolic fluxes. This includes the use of the oxidative branch of an incomplete tricarboxylic acid cycle for alpha-ketoglutarate biosynthesis, despite the genome not having an annotated citrate synthase. We also demonstrate that K. stuttgartiensis is able to directly assimilate extracellular formate via the Wood–Ljungdahl pathway instead of oxidizing it completely to CO 2 followed by reassimilation. In contrast, our data suggest that K. stuttgartiensis is not capable of using acetate as a carbon or energy source in situ and that acetate oxidation occurred via the metabolic activity of a low-abundance microorganism in the bioreactor’s side population. Together, these findings provide a foundation for understanding the carbon metabolism of anammox bacteria at a systems-level and will inform future studies aimed at elucidating factors governing their function and niche differentiation in natural and engineered ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗