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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Computationally efficient and error aware surrogate construction for numerical solutions of subsurface flow through porous media

Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by the solution of Darcy’s partial differential equation for a given permeability field. The subsurface permeability is modeled as a random field since it is known only up to statistical properties. This induces uncertainty in the computed pressure. Solving the partial differential equation for an ensemble of random permeability simulations enables estimating a probability distribution for the pressure at the critical location. These simulations are computationally expensive, and practitioners often need rapid online guidance for real-time pressure management. An ensemble of numerical partial differential equation solutions is used to construct a Gaussian process regression model that can quickly predict the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. The Gaussian process surrogate analyzes the ensemble of numerical pressure solutions at the critical location as noisy observations of the true pressure solution, enabling robust inference using the conditional Gaussian process distribution. Our first novel contribution is to identify a sampling methodology for the random environment and matching kernel technology for which fitting the Gaussian process regression model scales as O ( n log n ) instead of the typical O ( n 3 ) rate in the number of samples n used to fit the surrogate. The surrogate model allows almost instantaneous predictions for the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. Our second contribution is a novel algorithm to calibrate the uncertainty in the surrogate model to the discrepancy between the true pressure solution of Darcy’s equation and the numerical solution. Finally, although our method is derived for building a surrogate for the solution of Darcy’s equation with a random permeability field, the framework broadly applies to solutions of other partial differential equations with random coefficients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Comparing Ice Jam Hindcasting Models with Tree Scar Data

Hindcasting models can use historic ice jam observations and hydroclimatic data to identify conditions that form ice jams.However, historic ice jam records are often sparse or incomplete. New sources of historic ice jam data could improve hindcasting models, leading to better ice jam forecasting and flood warning systems. Because ice jams damage riparian trees, marker rings associated with historic scars include information about ice jam frequency and severity. This study examined marker rings from 56 trees along the Muskegon River to supplement the historic ice jam data on this system. The study team compared tree ring data to results from hindcasting models, which were independently validated with newspaper reports on 1,500 separate days. Logistic regression converted the marker ring data into annual ice jam probabilities. Ice jam dates from the dendrochronology data were too noisy to train or validate a hindcasting model. However, the marker ring data did confirm that ice jams on the Muskegon are nonstationary. Ice jams are significantly more likely now than they were before 1966.The marker rings also helped to distinguish between false-negatives and nondetects in the hindcasting model.

Stanford Gibson↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the eigenvector bias of Fourier feature networks: From regression to solving multi-scale PDEs with physics-informed neural networks

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) are demonstrating remarkable promise in integrating physical models with gappy and noisy observational data, but they still struggle in cases where the target functions to be approximated exhibit high-frequency or multi-scale features. Here in this work we investigate this limitation through the lens of Neural Tangent Kernel (NTK) theory and elucidate how PINNs are biased towards learning functions along the dominant eigen-directions of their limiting NTK. Using this observation, we construct novel architectures that employ spatio-temporal and multi-scale random Fourier features, and justify how such coordinate embedding layers can lead to robust and accurate PINN models. Numerical examples are presented for several challenging cases where conventional PINN models fail, including wave propagation and reaction–diffusion dynamics, illustrating how the proposed methods can be used to effectively tackle both forward and inverse problems involving partial differential equations with multi-scale behavior.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generative Ensemble Regression: Learning Particle Dynamics from Observations of Ensembles with Physics-informed Deep Generative Models

Here, we propose a new method for inferring the governing stochastic ordinary differential equations (SODEs) by observing particle ensembles at discrete and sparse time instants, i.e., multiple “snapshots.” Particle coordinates at a single time instant, possibly noisy or truncated, are recorded in each snapshot but are unpaired across the snapshots. By training a physics-informed generative model that generates “fake” sample paths, we aim to fit the observed particle ensemble distributions with a curve in the probability measure space, which is induced from the inferred particle dynamics. We employ different metrics to quantify the differences between distributions, e.g., the sliced Wasserstein distances and the adversarial losses in generative adversarial networks. We refer to this method as generative “ensemble-regression” (GER), in analogy to the classic “point-regression,” where we infer the dynamics by performing regression in the Euclidean space. We illustrate the GER by learning the drift and diffusion terms of particle ensembles governed by SODEs with Brownian motions and Lévy processes up to 100 dimensions. We also discuss how to treat cases with noisy or truncated observations. Apart from systems consisting of independent particles, we also tackle nonlocal interacting particle systems with unknown interaction potential parameters by constructing a physics-informed loss function. Finally, we investigate scenarios of paired observations and discuss how to reduce the dimensionality in such cases by proving a convergence theorem that provides theoretical support.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A kinetic-based regularization method for data science applications

We propose a physics-based regularization technique for function learning, inspired by statistical mechanics. By drawing an analogy between optimizing the parameters of an interpolator and minimizing the energy of a system, we introduce corrections that impose constraints on the lower-order moments of the data distribution. This minimizes the discrepancy between the discrete and continuum representations of the data, in turn allowing to access more favorable energy landscapes, thus improving the accuracy of the interpolator. Our approach improves performance in both interpolation and regression tasks, even in high-dimensional spaces. Unlike traditional methods, it does not require empirical parameter tuning, making it particularly effective for handling noisy data. We also show that thanks to its local nature, the method offers computational and memory efficiency advantages over Radial Basis Function interpolators, especially for large datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian learning with Gaussian processes for low-dimensional representations of time-dependent nonlinear systems

This work presents a data-driven method for learning low-dimensional time-dependent physics-based surrogate models whose predictions are endowed with uncertainty estimates. We use the operator inference approach to model reduction that poses the problem of learning low-dimensional model terms as a regression of state space data and corresponding time derivatives by minimizing the residual of reduced system equations. Standard operator inference models perform well with accurate training data that are dense in time, but producing stable and accurate models when the state data are noisy and/or sparse in time remains a challenge. Another challenge is the lack of uncertainty estimation for the predictions from the operator inference models. Our approach addresses these challenges by incorporating Gaussian process surrogates into the operator inference framework to (1) probabilistically describe uncertainties in the state predictions and (2) procure analytical time derivative estimates with quantified uncertainties. The formulation leads to a generalized least-squares regression and, ultimately, reduced-order models that are described probabilistically with a closed-form expression for the posterior distribution of the operators. The resulting probabilistic surrogate model propagates uncertainties from the observed state data to reduced-order predictions. Furthermore, we demonstrate the method is effective for constructing low-dimensional models of two nonlinear partial differential equations representing a compressible flow and a nonlinear diffusion–reaction process, as well as for estimating the parameters of a low-dimensional system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations representing compartmental models in epidemiology.

Data-driven model reduction↗
DOE OSTI2025

S AP F LOWER : an automated tool for sap flow data preprocessing, gap-filling, and analysis using deep learning

Sap flow, a critical process in plant water use and ecosystem water cycles, is often measured using thermal dissipation probes (TDP) due to their ease of installation and continuous data collection. However, sap flow data frequently include noise, outliers, and gaps, creating challenges for analysis and requiring substantial manual processing. We developed S AP F LOWER , a tool that automates data preprocessing, model training, gap-filling, sapwood area scaling and modeling, and water use analysis. It integrates autocleaning, machine learning and deep learning models (e.g. random forest, Gaussian process regression, long short-term memory (LSTM), bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM)), and efficient workflows to process sap flow data. S AP F LOWER can remove over 90% of noisy data while preserving legitimate variations and achieve high accuracy in gap-filling based on user-determined parameters. Random forest, LSTM, and BiLSTM models reduced root mean square error to 10% or less for long-term gaps. Model training and prediction can be performed efficiently within seconds. S AP F LOWER significantly enhances the efficiency and accessibility of TDP data analysis by automating complex tasks, enabling researchers without programming expertise to employ advanced techniques. Future improvements will focus on species-specific corrections for TDP and support for additional measurement methods. S AP F LOWER is openly available on GitHub (https://github.com/JiaxinWang123/SapFlower) and Zenodo (doi: 10.5281/zenodo.13665919).

ecosystem water balance↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mitiq: A software package for error mitigation on noisy quantum computers

We introduce Mitiq, a Python package for error mitigation on noisy quantum computers. Error mitigation techniques can reduce the impact of noise on near-term quantum computers with minimal overhead in quantum resources by relying on a mixture of quantum sampling and classical post-processing techniques. Mitiq is an extensible toolkit of different error mitigation methods, including zero-noise extrapolation, probabilistic error cancellation, and Clifford data regression. The library is designed to be compatible with generic backends and interfaces with different quantum software frameworks. We describe Mitiq using code snippets to demonstrate usage and discuss features and contribution guidelines. We present several examples demonstrating error mitigation on IBM and Rigetti superconducting quantum processors as well as on noisy simulators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Learning functional priors and posteriors from data and physics

In this work, we develop a new Bayesian framework based on deep neural networks to be able to extrapolate in space-time using historical data and to quantify uncertainties arising from both noisy and gappy data in physical problems. Specifically, the proposed approach has two stages: (1) prior learning and (2) posterior estimation. At the first stage, we employ the physics-informed Generative Adversarial Networks (PI-GAN) to learn a functional prior either from a prescribed function distribution, e.g., Gaussian process, or from historical data and physics. At the second stage, we employ the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method to estimate the posterior in the latent space of PI-GANs. In addition, we use two different approaches to encode the physics: (1) automatic differentiation, used in the physicsinformed neural networks (PINNs) for scenarios with explicitly known partial differential equations (PDEs), and (2) operator regression using the deep operator network (DeepONet) for PDE-agnostic scenarios. We then test the proposed method for (1) meta-learning for one-dimensional regression, and forward/inverse PDE problems (combined with PINNs); (2) PDE-agnostic physical problems (combined with DeepONet), e.g., fractional diffusion as well as saturated stochastic (100-dimensional) flows in heterogeneous porous media; and (3) spatial-temporal regression problems, i.e., inference of a marine riser displacement field using experimental data from the Norwegian Deepwater Programme (NDP). The results demonstrate that the proposed approach can provide accurate predictions as well as uncertainty quantification given very limited scattered and noisy data, since historical data could be available to provide informative priors. In summary, the proposed method is capable of learning flexible functional priors, e.g., both Gaussian and non-Gaussian process, and can be readily extended to big data problems by enabling mini-batch training using stochastic HMC or normalizing flows since the latent space is generally characterized as low dimensional.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1990

Error analysis for reducing noisy wide-gap concentric cylinder rheometric data for nonlinear fluids - Theory and applications

This work discusses the propagation of errors for the recovery of the shear rate from wide-gap concentric cylinder viscometric measurements of non-Newtonian fluids. A least-square regression of stress on angular velocity data to a system of arbitrary functions is used to propagate the errors for the series solution to the viscometric flow developed by Krieger and Elrod (1953) and Pawlowski (1953) ('power-law' approximation) and for the first term of the series developed by Krieger (1968). A numerical experiment shows that, for measurements affected by significant errors, the first term of the Krieger-Elrod-Pawlowski series ('infinite radius' approximation) and the power-law approximation may recover the shear rate with equal accuracy as the full Krieger-Elrod-Pawlowski solution. An experiment on a clay slurry indicates that the clay has a larger yield stress at rest than during shearing, and that, for the range of shear rates investigated, a four-parameter constitutive equation approximates reasonably well its rheology. The error analysis presented is useful for studying the rheology of fluids such as particle suspensions, slurries, foams, and magma.

Borgia, Andrea↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Determination of Radiative Forcing of Saharan Dust using Combined TOMS and ERBE Data

The direct radiative forcing of Saharan dust aerosols has been determined by combining aerosol information derived from Nimbus-7 TOMS with radiation measurements observed at the top of atmosphere (TOA) by NOAA-9 ERBE made during February-July 1985. Cloud parameters and precipitable water derived from the NOAA-9 HIRS2 instrument were used to aid in screening for clouds and water vapor in the analyses. Our results indicate that under "cloud-free" and "dry" conditions there is a good correlation between the ERBE TOA outgoing longwave fluxes and the TOMS aerosol index measurements over both land and ocean in areas under the influence of airborne Saharan dust. The ERBE TOA outgoing shortwave fluxes were also found to correlate well with the dust loading derived from TOMS over ocean. However, the calculated shortwave forcing of Saharan dust aerosols is very weak and noisy over land for the range of solar zenith angle viewed by the NOAA-9 ERBE in 1985. Sensitivity factors of the TOA outgoing fluxes to changes in aerosol index were estimated using a linear regression fit to the ERBE and TOMS measurements. The ratio of the shortwave-to-longwave response to changes in dust loading over the ocean is found to be roughly 2 to 3, but opposite in sign. The monthly averaged "clear-sky" TOA direct forcing of airborne Saharan dust was also calculated by multiplying these sensitivity factors by the TOMS monthly averaged "clear-sky" aerosol index. Both the observational and theoretical analyses indicate that the dust layer height, ambient moisture content as well as the presence of cloud all play an important role in determining the TOA direct radiative forcing due to mineral aerosols.

Hsu, N. Christina↗
DOE OSTI2023

Derivative-based SINDy (DSINDy): Addressing the challenge of discovering governing equations from noisy data

Recent advances in the field of data-driven dynamics allow for the discovery of ODE systems using state measurements. One approach, known as Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy), assumes the dynamics are sparse within a predetermined basis in the states and finds the expansion coefficients through linear regression with sparsity constraints. This approach requires an accurate estimation of the state time derivatives, which is not necessarily possible in the high-noise regime without additional constraints. We present an approach called Derivative-based SINDy (DSINDy) that combines two novel methods to improve ODE recovery at high-noise levels. First, we denoise the state variables by applying a projection operator that leverages the assumed basis for the system dynamics. Second, we use a second order cone program (SOCP) to find the derivative and governing equations simultaneously. We derive theoretical results for the projection-based denoising step, which allow us to estimate the values of hyperparameters used in the SOCP formulation. This underlying theory helps limit the number of required user-specified parameters. Finally, we present results demonstrating that our approach leads to improved system recovery for the Van der Pol oscillator, the Duffing oscillator, the Rössler attractor, and the Lorenz 96 model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

BigNeuron: a resource to benchmark and predict performance of algorithms for automated tracing of neurons in light microscopy datasets

BigNeuron is an open community bench-testing platform with the goal of setting open standards for accurate and fast automatic neuron tracing. We gathered a diverse set of image volumes across several species that is representative of the data obtained in many neuroscience laboratories interested in neuron tracing. Here, we report generated gold standard manual annotations for a subset of the available imaging datasets and quantified tracing quality for 35 automatic tracing algorithms. The goal of generating such a hand-curated diverse dataset is to advance the development of tracing algorithms and enable generalizable benchmarking. Together with image quality features, we pooled the data in an interactive web application that enables users and developers to perform principal component analysis, t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding, correlation and clustering, visualization of imaging and tracing data, and benchmarking of automatic tracing algorithms in user-defined data subsets. The image quality metrics explain most of the variance in the data, followed by neuromorphological features related to neuron size. Furthermore, we observed that diverse algorithms can provide complementary information to obtain accurate results and developed a method to iteratively combine methods and generate consensus reconstructions. The consensus trees obtained provide estimates of the neuron structure ground truth that typically outperform single algorithms in noisy datasets. However, specific algorithms may outperform the consensus tree strategy in specific imaging conditions. Finally, to aid users in predicting the most accurate automatic tracing results without manual annotations for comparison, we used support vector machine regression to predict reconstruction quality given an image volume and a set of automatic tracings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1979

Modern estimation techniques applied to microwave sensing of the marine boundary layer

Previous efforts in the area of satellite microwave sensing of the marine boundary layer have relied upon linear regression techniques to extract geophysical parameters from the microwave measurement data. The approach used in the present paper shifts emphasis away from the generation of regression weighting matrices which implicitly assume that the data are linear in the parameters to be determined and that the problem is statistically stationary. The idea is simply to employ modern computational estimation techniques to obtain parameter estimates from nonlinear noisy measurements. The approach is limited only to the region of validity of Grody's (1976) model. Attention is focused on documenting how estimation techniques, in particular the square root information filter (SRIF), are used to solve a nonlinear function optimization problem.

Bierman, G. J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Operator learning for predicting multiscale bubble growth dynamics

We report simulating and predicting multiscale problems that couple multiple physics and dynamics across many orders of spatiotemporal scales is a great challenge that has not been investigated systematically by deep neural networks (DNNs). Herein, we develop a framework based on operator regression, the so-called deep operator network (DeepONet), with the long-term objective to simplify multiscale modeling by avoiding the fragile and time-consuming “hand-shaking” interface algorithms for stitching together heterogeneous descriptions of multiscale phenomena. To this end, as a first step, we investigate if a DeepONet can learn the dynamics of different scale regimes, one at the deterministic macroscale and the other at the stochastic microscale regime with inherent thermal fluctuations. Specifically, we test the effectiveness and accuracy of the DeepONet in predicting multirate bubble growth dynamics, which is described by a Rayleigh–Plesset (R–P) equation at the macroscale and modeled as a stochastic nucleation and cavitation process at the microscale by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD). First, we generate data using the R–P equation for multirate bubble growth dynamics caused by randomly time-varying liquid pressures drawn from Gaussian random fields (GRFs). Our results show that properly trained DeepONets can accurately predict the macroscale bubble growth dynamics and can outperform long short-term memory networks. We also demonstrate that the DeepONet can extrapolate accurately outside the input distribution using only very few new measurements. Subsequently, we train the DeepONet with DPD data corresponding to stochastic bubble growth dynamics. Although the DPD data are noisy and we only collect sparse data points on the trajectories, the trained DeepONet model is able to predict accurately the mean bubble dynamics for time-varying GRF pressures. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that DeepONets can be employed to unify the macroscale and microscale models of the multirate bubble growth problem, hence providing new insight into the role of operator regression via DNNs in tackling realistic multiscale problems and in simplifying modeling with heterogeneous descriptions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving the efficiency of learning-based error mitigation

Error mitigation will play an important role in practical applications of near-term noisy quantum computers. Current error mitigation methods typically concentrate on correction quality at the expense of frugality (as measured by the number of additional calls to quantum hardware). To fill the need for highly accurate, yet inexpensive techniques, we introduce an error mitigation scheme that builds on Clifford data regression (CDR). The scheme improves the frugality by carefully choosing the training data and exploiting the symmetries of the problem. We test our approach by correcting long range correlators of the ground state of XY Hamiltonian on IBM Toronto quantum computer. We find that our method is an order of magnitude cheaper while maintaining the same accuracy as the original CDR approach. The efficiency gain enables us to obtain a factor of 10 improvement on the unmitigated results with the total budget as small as 2 ⋅ 10 5 shots. Furthermore, we demonstrate orders of magnitude improvements in frugality for mitigation of energy of the LiH ground state simulated with IBM's Ourense-derived noise model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2022

MLtool: Universal Supervised Machine Learning Tool to Model Tabulated Data

Machine Learning (ML) is a subfield of Artificial Intelligence that gives computers the ability to learn from past data without being explicitly programmed. The predictive capabilities of ML models have already been used to facilitate several scientific breakthroughs. However, the practical application of ML is often limited due to the gaps in technical knowledge of its users. The common issue faced by many scientific researchers is the inability to choose the appropriate ML pipelines that are needed to treat real-world data, which is often sparse and noisy. To solve this problem, we have developed an automated Machine Learning tool (MLtool) that includes a set of ML algorithms and approaches to aid scientific researchers. The current version of MLtool is implemented as an object-oriented Python code that is easily extensible. It includes 44 different regression algorithms used to model data. MLtool helps users select the best model for their data, based on the scoring metrics used. Besides regression algorithms, MLtool also includes a suite of pre- and post-processing techniques such as missing value imputation, categorical variable encoding, input feature normalization, uncertainty quantification, exploratory data analysis (EDA), etc. MLtool was tested on several publicly available multi-dimensional data sets and was found capable of making accurate predictions.

Machine learning↗