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This document describes the draft ruleset for Assent, an experimental wargame to practice consensus making in a crisis scenario.
This feasibility study was motivated by a need for alternative mandrel materials to meet the next generation of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) ablator capsules. In response, a new polymer material based on reversible covalent bonds was proposed, with the objective to design thermosets to withstand elevated temperatures (140-200 degrees Celsius) while also being thermally degradable on-demand via controlled decomposition at temperatures above 200 degrees Celsius. A series of cyclopentadiene (Cp) containing thermosets were designed and synthesized to evaluate curing, reversibility and degradability controlled via retro-Diels Alder reactions using Cp-cycloaddition adducts as crosslinks. Ultimately, the current iteration of materials and strategy pursued in this study was assessed as impractical for meeting the needs and objectives of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL) target fabrication program.
Item Purpose: Presentation of LYNM DN DNE2 at the AFRL TIM. Internal Peer Review Status: This item has completed internal peer review. HQ review status: This item has been reviewed and approved by HQ.
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Abstract Most real‐world networks are both dynamic and multivariate in nature, meaning that the network is associated with various attributes and both the network structure and attributes evolve over time. Visualizing dynamic multivariate networks is of great significance to the visualization community because of their wide applications across multiple domains. However, it remains challenging because the techniques should focus on representing the network structure, attributes and their evolution concurrently. Many real‐world network analysis tasks require the concurrent usage of the three aspects of the dynamic multivariate networks. In this paper, we analyze current techniques and present a taxonomy to classify the existing visualization techniques based on three aspects: temporal encoding, topology encoding, and attribute encoding. Finally, we survey application areas and evaluation methods; and discuss challenges for future research.
Ferroelectric materials such as BaTiO 3 show tremendous potential for emerging advances in memory devices, particular neuromorphic type devices. High density of memory can be obtained by stabilising polar domain walls at the nanoscale, regions of discontinuity between the well-defined polarization order parameter, but little is known about what controls their structure and dynamics in real nanoscale materials. Indeed, chiral polar domain walls have been observed in heterogeneous ferroelectrics, such as oxygen-deficient BaTiO 3 , but very little is known about how such polar-domains walls interact with defects. Indeed, a critical understanding of how dynamics of domain-walls depend on point-defects is crucial to create engineered ferroelectric memory devices. For this work, we perform large-scale simulations of nansocale domain-wall dynamics in pristine and defective BaTiO 3 using reactive force-field developed by us earlier (Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys., 2019, 21, 18240–18249), and capture their dynamical dependence on point defects using a graph dynamical neural-network approach, which we adapted to interrogate solids with well-defined order-parameters, and implemented using Pytorch based libraries. Our machine learning (ML) approach goes beyond the traditional post-processing methods to capture both spatial and temporal heterogeneities of large-scale molecular dynamics simulations of complex defective ferroelectric oxide materials. We crucially find that isolated oxygen vacancies introduce very localized spatial regions (~1–2 unit-cell in length) that show slow dipole relaxation due to formation of defect-dipoles, and that these defect-dipoles in turn slow the intrinsic dynamics of domain walls. Further, the roughness of domain walls, also influenced by vacancies, introduce dynamic heterogeneity along the domain-wall. As such we find a novel mechanism by which quenched disorder due to defects introduce dynamic heterogeneity thereby influencing response to external fields (particularly time varying fields) in a ferroelectric. Our study also emphasizes the need for creating digital twins of dynamical quantities to achieve autonomous in operando control of nanoscale switching.
Cross-linked polymer electrolytes containing structurally dynamic disulfide bonds have been synthesized to investigate their combined ion transport and adhesive properties. Dynamic network polymers of varying cross-link densities are synthesized via thiol oxidation of a bisthiol monomer, 2,2'-(ethylenedioxy)diethanethiol, and tetrathiol cross-linker, pentaerythritol tetrakis(3-mercaptopropionate). At optimal loading of lithium bis(trifluoromethane-sulfonyl-imide) (LiTFSI) salt, the ionic conductivities (σ) at 90 °C are about 1 × 10–4 and 1 × 10–5 S/cm at the lowest and highest cross-linking, respectively. Notably, in comparison to the equivalent nondynamic network, the dynamic network shows a positive deviation in σ above 90 °C, which suggests the enhancement of ion transport occurs from the difference in structural relaxation on account of the dissociation of disulfide bonds. Lap shear adhesion and conductivity tests on ITO-coated glass substrates reveal the dynamic network exhibits a higher adhesive shear strength of 0.2 MPa (vs 0.03 MPa for the nondynamic network) and higher σ after the application of external stimulus (UV light or heat). The adhesive strength and σ are stable over multiple debonding/rebonding cycles and, thus, demonstrating the utility of these structurally dynamic networks as solid polymer electrolyte adhesives.
A dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN)-based fault prognosis framework is proposed in this study to predict the future fault probabilities of gradual faults. The proposed framework utilizes the trend in prediction error generated from data driven forecasting models to estimate the future fault beliefs. The accuracy and scalability of the proposed method is evaluated using the data from a Modelica-based virtual testbed. Overall, the developed framework demonstrates good potential in estimating future fault probabilities of gradual faults.
Dynamics of linear pinch discharge driven by high current pulse-forming network - snowplow model
A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.
We implement a 2-time slice dynamic Bayesian network (2T-DBN) framework and make a 1-D state estimation simulation, an extension of the experiment in (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000) and compare different filtering techniques. Furthermore, we demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid DBN is possible by simulating fault detection in a watertank system, an extension of the experiment in (Koller & Lerner, 2000) using a hybrid 2T-DBN. In both experiments, we perform approximate inference using standard filtering techniques, Monte Carlo methods and combinations of these. In the watertank simulation, we also demonstrate the use of 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation. We show that the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) and UKF in a particle filtering framework outperform the generic particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) and EKF in a particle filtering framework with respect to accuracy in terms of estimation RMSE and sensitivity with respect to choice of network structure. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the watertank simulation using UKF and PFUKD and show that the algorithms are more sensitive to changes in the measurement noise level that the process noise level. Theory and implementation is based on (v.d. Merwe et al., 2000).
A VLSI implementable neural network architecture for dynamic assignment is presented. The resource allocation problems involve assigning members of one set (e.g. resources) to those of another (e.g. consumers) such that the global 'cost' of the associations is minimized. The network consists of a matrix of sigmoidal processing elements (neurons), where the rows of the matrix represent resources and columns represent consumers. Unlike previous neural implementations, however, association costs are applied directly to the neurons, reducing connectivity of the network to VLSI-compatible 0 (number of neurons). Each row (and column) has an additional neuron associated with it to independently oversee activations of all the neurons in each row (and each column), providing a programmable 'k-winner-take-all' function. This function simultaneously enforces blocking (excitatory/inhibitory) constraints during convergence to control the number of active elements in each row and column within desired boundary conditions. Simulations show that the network, when implemented in fully parallel VLSI hardware, offers optimal (or near-optimal) solutions within only a fraction of a millisecond, for problems up to 128 resources and 128 consumers, orders of magnitude faster than conventional computing or heuristic search methods.
This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.
Epoxy/anhydride cured thermosets are widely used in aerospace and wind energy structures. Recycling the enormous amounts of epoxy thermoset waste remains a global challenge. Vitrimerization, a practical, low-cost, eco-friendly and scalable method was developed for closed-loop recycling of the crosslinked epoxy by converting the permanent network into a vitrimer type dynamic network. Here we study the effect of virgin epoxy network properties on network reforming efficiency and the activation energy of the dynamic network by varying the epoxy/anhydride ratio. The results point out that the permanent network crosslink density and glass transition temperature have a more pronounced effect on vitrimerization efficiency by comparison with the concentration of free hydroxyl groups in the system. Furthermore, the result can be potentially used to better control vitrimerization efficiency in recycling epoxy thermoset polymers and tailor the vitrimerized products properties.
We demonstrate experimentally that inference in a complex hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) is possible using the 2 - T i e Slice DBN (2T-DBN) from [Koller & Lerner, 20001 to model fault detection in a watertank system. In [Koller & Lerner, 20001 a generic Particle Filter (PF) is used for inference. We extend the experiment and perform approximate inference using The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). Furthermore, we combine these techniques in a 'non-strict' Rao-Blackwellisation framework and apply it to the watertank system. We show that UKF and UKF in a PF framework outperfom the generic PF, EKF and EKF in a PF framework with respect to accuracy and robustness in terms of estimation RMSE. Especially we demonstrate the superiority of UKF in a PF framework when our beliefs of how data was generated are wrong. We also show that the choice of network structure is very important for the performance of the generic PF and the EKF algorithms, but not for the UKF algorithms. Furthermore, we investigate the influence of data noise in the water[ank simulation. Theory and implementation is based on the theory presented.
Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.
SAND2025-07645O Conin is a Python library that supports constrained analysis of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). It enables constrained inference and learning for hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks, dynamic Bayesian networks, and Markov networks. Conin interfaces with the pgmpy library to specify general probabilistic graphical models with a variety of optimization solvers to support learning and inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.