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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Detecting Methane From Leaking Pipelines and as Greenhouse Gas in the Atmosphere

Laser remote sensing measurements of trace gases from orbit can provide unprecedented information about important planetary science and answer critical questions about planetary atmospheres. Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenically produced greenhouse gas. Though its atmospheric abundance is much less than that of CO2 (1.78 ppm vs. 380 ppm), it has much larger greenhouse heating potential. CH4 also contributes to pollution in the lower atmosphere through chemical reactions, leading to ozone production. Atmospheric CH4 concentrations have been increasing as a result of increased fossil fuel production, rice farming, livestock, and landfills. Natural sources of CH4 include wetlands, wild fires, and termites, and perhaps other unknown sources. Important sinks for CH4 include non-saturated soils and oxidation by hydroxyl radicals in the atmosphere. Remotely measuring CH4 and other biogenic molecules (such as ethane and formaldehyde) on Mars also has important implications on the existence of life on Mars. Measuring CH4 at very low (ppb) concentrations from orbit will dramatically improve the sensitivity and spatial resolution in the search for CH4 vents and sub-surface life on other planets. A capability has been developed using lasers and spectroscopic detection techniques for the remote measurements of trace gases in open paths. Detection of CH4, CO2, H2O, and CO in absorption cells and in open paths, both in the mid- IR and near-IR region, has been demonstrated using an Optical Parametric Amplifier laser transmitter developed at GSFC. With this transmitter, it would be possible to develop a remote sensing methane instrument. CH4 detection also has very important commercial applications. Pipeline leak detection from an aircraft or a helicopter can significantly reduce cost, response time, and pinpoint the location. The main advantage is the ability to rapidly detect CH4 leaks remotely. This is extremely important for the petrochemical industry. This capability can be used in manned or unmanned airborne platforms for the detection of leaks in pipelines and other areas of interest where a CH4 leak is suspected.

Riris, Haris↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global Methane Budget 2000–2020

Abstract. Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. CH4 is the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2), and both emissions and atmospheric concentrations of CH4 have continued to increase since 2007 after a temporary pause. The relative importance of CH4 emissions compared to those of CO2 for temperature change is related to its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger radiative effect, and acceleration in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in quantifying the factors responsible for the observed atmospheric growth rate arise from diverse, geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the uncertain magnitude and temporal change in the destruction of CH4 by short-lived and highly variable hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to improve, synthesise, and update the global CH4 budget regularly and to stimulate new research on the methane cycle. Following Saunois et al. (2016, 2020), we present here the third version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal CH4 budget, integrating results of top-down CH4 emission estimates (based on in situ and Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) atmospheric observations and an ensemble of atmospheric inverse-model results) and bottom-up estimates (based on process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). We present a budget for the most recent 2010–2019 calendar decade (the latest period for which full data sets are available), for the previous decade of 2000–2009 and for the year 2020. The revision of the bottom-up budget in this 2025 edition benefits from important progress in estimating inland freshwater emissions, with better counting of emissions from lakes and ponds, reservoirs, and streams and rivers. This budget also reduces double counting across freshwater and wetland emissions and, for the first time, includes an estimate of the potential double counting that may exist (average of 23 Tg CH4 yr−1). Bottom-up approaches show that the combined wetland and inland freshwater emissions average 248 [159–369] Tg CH4 yr−1 for the 2010–2019 decade. Natural fluxes are perturbed by human activities through climate, eutrophication, and land use. In this budget, we also estimate, for the first time, this anthropogenic component contributing to wetland and inland freshwater emissions. Newly available gridded products also allowed us to derive an almost complete latitudinal and regional budget based on bottom-up approaches. For the 2010–2019 decade, global CH4 emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (top-down) to be 575 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 553–586, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this amount, 369 Tg CH4 yr−1 or ∼ 65 % is attributed to direct anthropogenic sources in the fossil, agriculture, and waste and anthropogenic biomass burning (range 350–391 Tg CH4 yr−1 or 63 %–68 %). For the 2000–2009 period, the atmospheric inversions give a slightly lower total emission than for 2010–2019, by 32 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 9–40). The 2020 emission rate is the highest of the period and reaches 608 Tg CH4 yr−1 (range 581–627), which is 12 % higher than the average emissions in the 2000s. Since 2012, global direct anthropogenic CH4 emission trends have been tracking scenarios that assume no or minimal climate mitigation policies proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (shared socio-economic pathways SSP5 and SSP3). Bottom-up methods suggest 16 % (94 Tg CH4 yr−1) larger global emissions (669 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 512–849) than top-down inversion methods for the 2010–2019 period. The discrepancy between the bottom-up and the top-down budgets has been greatly reduced compared to the previous differences (167 and 156 Tg CH4 yr−1 in Saunois et al. (2016, 2020) respectively), and for the first time uncertainties in bottom-up and top-down budgets overlap. Although differences have been reduced between inversions and bottom-up, the most important source of uncertainty in the global CH4 budget is still attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and inland freshwaters. The tropospheric loss of methane, as the main contributor to methane lifetime, has been estimated at 563 [510–663] Tg CH4 yr−1 based on chemistry–climate models. These values are slightly larger than for 2000–2009 due to the impact of the rise in atmospheric methane and remaining large uncertainty (∼ 25 %). The total sink of CH4 is estimated at 633 [507–796] Tg CH4 yr−1 by the bottom-up approaches and at 554 [550–567] Tg CH4 yr−1 by top-down approaches. However, most of the top-down models use the same OH distribution, which introduces less uncertainty to the global budget than is likely justified. For 2010–2019, agriculture and waste contributed an estimated 228 [213–242] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 211 [195–231] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. Fossil fuel emissions contributed 115 [100–124] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 120 [117–125] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. Biomass and biofuel burning contributed 27 [26–27] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the top-down budget and 28 [21–39] Tg CH4 yr−1 in the bottom-up budget. We identify five major priorities for improving the CH4 budget: (i) producing a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting CH4 based on a robust classification of different types of emitting ecosystems; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of CH4 observations at local (e.g. FLUXNET-CH4 measurements, urban-scale monitoring, satellite imagery with pointing capabilities) to regional scales (surface networks and global remote sensing measurements from satellites) to constrain both bottom-up models and atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) integration of 3D variational inversion systems using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane as well as information in the bottom-up inventories on anthropogenic super-emitters detected by remote sensing (mainly oil and gas sector but also coal, agriculture, and landfills) to improve source partitioning. The data presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GKQ9-2RHT (Martinez et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Atmospheric Inverse Modelling of Methane Budgets with Copernicus Land Water and Wetness Data to Detect Land Use-Related Emissions

Climate change mitigation requires countries to report their annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sinks, including those from land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF). In Finland, the LULUCF sector plays a crucial role in achieving net-zero GHG emissions, as the sector is expected to be a net sink. However, accurate estimates of LULUCF-related GHG emissions, such as methane (CH 4 ), remain challenging. We estimated LULUCF-related CH 4 emissions in Finland in 2013–2020 by combining national land cover and remote-sensed surface wetness data with CH 4 emissions estimated by an inversion model. According to our inversion model, most of Finland’s CH 4 emissions were attributed to natural sources such as open pristine peatlands. However, our research indicated that forests with thin tree cover surrounding open peatlands may also be a significant source of CH 4 . Unlike open pristine peatlands and pristine peatlands with thin tree cover, surrounding transient forests are included in the Finnish GHG inventory if they meet the criteria used for forest land. The current Finnish national GHG inventory may therefore underestimate CH 4 emissions from forested organic soils surrounding open peatlands, although more precise methods and data are needed to verify this. Given the potential impact on net GHG emissions, CH 4 emissions from transitional forests on organic soils should be further investigated. Furthermore, the results demonstrate the potential of combining atmospheric inversion modelling of GHGs with diverse data sources and highlight the need for methods to more easily combine atmospheric inversions with national GHG inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

In situ aerobic methane oxidation rates in a stratified lake

Abstract Microbial aerobic methane oxidation is an important sink for aquatic methane worldwide. Despite its importance to global methane fluxes, few aerobic methane oxidation rates have been obtained in freshwater or marine environments without imposing changes to the microbial community through use of ex situ methods. A novel in situ incubation method for continuous time‐series measurements was used in Jordan Lake, North Carolina, during 2020–2021, to determine reaction kinetics for aerobic methane oxidation rates across a wide range of naturally varying methane (55–1833 nM) and dissolved oxygen (DO; 28–366 μM) concentrations and temperatures (17–30°C). Methane oxidation began immediately at the start of each of 21 incubations and methane oxidation rates were 1 st order with respect to methane. The data density allowed for accurate calculation of 1 st ‐order rate constants,k, that ranged from 0.018 to 0.462 h −1 (R 2 > 0.967). Addition of ammonium (20–45 μM) to natural concentrations ranging from 0.057 to 2.4 μM did not change aerobic methane oxidation rate kinetics, suggesting that the natural population of aerobic methane oxidizers in this eutrophic lake was not nitrogen limited. Values ofkinversely correlated most strongly with initial DO concentrations (R 2 = 0.82) rather than temperature. Values forkincreased with Julian day throughout our sampling period, suggesting seasonal influences on methane oxidation via responses to geochemical changes or shifts in microbial community abundance and composition. These experiments demonstrate a high variability in the enzymatic capacity for 1 st ‐order methane oxidation rates in this eutrophic lake that is tightly and inversely coupled to oxygen concentrations. Measurements of in situ aerobic methane oxidation rate constants allow for the direct quantification and modeling of the microbial community's capacity for methane oxidation over a wide range of natural methane concentrations.

Marine & Freshwater Biology↗
NASA NTRS2020

Increasing anthropogenic methane emissions arise equally from agricultural and fossil fuel sources

Climate stabilization remains elusive, with increased greenhouse gas concentrations already increasing global average surface temperatures 1.1°C above pre-industrial levels (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel use, deforestation, and other anthropogenic sources reached ~ 43 billion metric tonnes in 2019 (Friedlingstein et al 2019, Jackson et al 2019). Storms, floods, and other extreme weather events displaced a record 7 million people in the first half of 2019 (IDMC 2019). When global mean surface temperature four million years ago was 2°C–3°C warmer than today (a likely temperature increase before the end of the century), ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica melted and parts of East Antarctica’s ice retreated, causing sea levels to rise 10–20 m (World Meteorological Organization 2019). Methane (CH4) emissions have contributed almost one quarter of the cumulative radiative forcings for CO2, CH4, and N2O (nitrous oxide) combined since 1750 (Etminan et al 2016). Although methane is far less abundant in the atmosphere than CO2, it absorbs thermal infrared radiation much more efficiently and, in consequence, has a global warming potential (GWP) ~86 times stronger per unit mass than CO2 on a 20-year timescale and 28- times more powerful on a 100-year time scale (IPCC 2014). Global average methane concentrations in the atmosphere reached ~1875 parts per billion (ppb) at the end of 2019, more than two-and-a-half times preindustrial levels (Dlugokencky 2020). The largest methane sources include anthropogenic emissions from agriculture, waste, and the extraction and use of fossil fuels as well as natural emissions from wetlands, freshwater systems, and geological sources (Kirschke et al 2013, Saunois et al 2016a, Ganesan et al 2019). Here, we summarize new estimates of the global methane budget based on the analysis of Saunois et al (2020) for the year 2017, the last year of the new Global Methane Budget and the most recent year data are fully available. We compare these estimates to mean values for the reference ‘stabilization’ period of 2000–2006 when atmospheric CH4 concentrations were relatively stable. We present data for sources and sinks and provide insights for the geographical regions and economic sectors where emissions have changed the most over recent decades.

fossil fuel sources↗
NASA NTRS1992

Emissions of biogenic sulfur gases from northern bogs and fens

Sulfur gases are important components of the global cycle of S. They contribute to the acidity of precipitation and they influence global radiation balance and climate. The role of terrestrial sources of biogenic S and their effect on atmospheric chemistry remain as major unanswered questions in our understanding of the natural S cycle. The role of northern wetlands as sources and sinks of gaseous S by measuring rates of S gas exchange as a function of season, hydrologic conditions, and gradients in tropic status was investigated. Experiments were conducted in wetlands in New Hampshire, particularly a poor fen, and in Mire 239, a poor fen at the Experimental Lakes Area (ELA) in Ontario. Emissions were determined using Teflon enclosures, gas cryotrapping methods and gas chromatography (GC) with flame photometric detection. Dynamic (sweep flow) and static enclosures were employed which yielded similar results. Dissolved S gases and methane were determined by gas stripping followed by GC.

Demello, William Zamboni↗
NASA NTRS2018

Average Versus High Surface Ozone Levels over the Continental USA: Model Bias, Background Influences, and Interannual Variability

US background ozone (O3) includes O3 produced from anthropogenic O3 precursors emitted outside of the USA, from global methane, and from any natural sources. Using a suite of sensitivity simulations in the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model, we estimate the influence from individual background sources versus US anthropogenic sources on total surface O3 over 10 continental US regions from 2004 to 2012. Evaluation with observations reveals model biases of +0-19ppb in seasonal mean maximum daily 8h average (MDA8) O3, highest in summer over the eastern USA. Simulated high-O3 events cluster too late in the season. We link these model biases to excessive regional O3 production (e.g., US anthropogenic, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), and soil NOx, emissions), or coincident missing sinks. On the 10 highest observed O3 days during summer (O3_top10obs_JJA), US anthropogenic emissions enhance O3 by 5-11ppb and by less than 2ppb in the eastern versus western USA. The O3 enhancement from BVOC emissions during summer is 1-7 ppb higher on O3_top10obs_JJA days than on average days, while intercontinental pollution is up to 2ppb higher on average versus on O3_top10obs_JJA days. During the summers of 2004-2012, monthly regional mean US background O3 MDA8 levels vary by up to 15ppb from year to year. Observed and simulated summertime total surface O3 levels on O3_top10obs_JJA days decline by 3ppb (averaged over all regions) from 2004-2006 to 2010-2012, reflecting rising US background (+2ppb) and declining US anthropogenic O3 emissions (6ppb) in the model. The model attributes interannual variability in US background O3 on O3_top10obs days to natural sources, not international pollution transport. We find that a 3-year averaging period is not long enough to eliminate interannual variability in background O3 on the highest observed O3 days.

Guo, Jean J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized model experiments and climate projections of different emissions scenarios. We argue that although this approach was practical to allow parallel development of Earth system model simulations and detailed socioeconomic futures, carbon cycle uncertainty as represented by diverse, process-resolving Earth system models (ESMs) is not manifested in the scenario outcomes, thus omitting a dominant source of uncertainty in meeting the Paris Agreement. Mitigation policy is defined in terms of human activity (including emissions), with strategies varying in their timing of net-zero emissions, the balance of mitigation effort between short-lived and long-lived climate forcers, their reliance on land use strategy, and the extent and timing of carbon removals. To explore the response to these drivers, ESMs need to explicitly represent complete cycles of major GHGs, including natural processes and anthropogenic influences. Carbon removal and sequestration strategies, which rely on proposed human management of natural systems, are currently calculated in integrated assessment models (IAMs) during scenario development with only the net carbon emissions passed to the ESM. However, proper accounting of the coupled system impacts of and feedback on such interventions requires explicit process representation in ESMs to build self-consistent physical representations of their potential effectiveness and risks under climate change. We propose that CMIP7 efforts prioritize simulations driven by CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and projected deployment of carbon dioxide removal technologies, as well as land use and management, using the process resolution allowed by state-of-the-art ESMs to resolve carbon–climate feedbacks. Post-CMIP7 ambitions should aim to incorporate modeling of non-CO2 GHGs (in particular, sources and sinks of methane and nitrous oxide) and process-based representation of carbon removal options. These developments will allow three primary benefits: (1) resources to be allocated to policy-relevant climate projections and better real-time information related to the detectability and verification of emissions reductions and their relationship to expected near-term climate impacts, (2) scenario modeling of the range of possible future climate states including Earth system processes and feedbacks that are increasingly well-represented in ESMs, and (3) optimal utilization of the strengths of ESMs in the wider context of climate modeling infrastructure (which includes simple climate models, machine learning approaches and kilometer-scale climate models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying microbial functional guilds performing cryptic organotrophic and lithotrophic redox cycles in anaerobic granular biofilms

Granular biofilms used in anaerobic digester systems contain diverse microbial populations that interact to hydrolyze organic matter and produce methane within controlled environments. Prior research investigated the feasibility of utilizing granular biofilms obtained from an anaerobic digester to remove nitrate without the addition of exogenous electron donors. These granules possessed a unique structure of alternating light and dark iron sulfide and pyrite rich layers that potentially served as both an electron source and sink, linking carbon, nitrogen, sulfur, and iron cycles. To characterize the functional roles of diverse microbial populations enriched within these layered biofilms, we analyzed metagenomes obtained from three different granules. Comparisons between the functional gene content of forty metagenome assembled genomes (MAGs) identified phylogenetically cohesive functional guilds. Each of these functional MAG clusters was assigned to specific steps in anaerobic digestion (hydrolysis, acidogenesis, acetogenesis, and methanogenesis) and anaerobic respiration (denitrification and sulfate reduction). Comparisons with metagenomes derived from a variety of natural and engineered ecosystems confirmed that the enriched denitrifying bacteria were similar to populations typically found in wetlands and biological nitrogen removal systems. Analysis of read alignments to individual genes within the forty MAGs identified conserved genomic features that were representative of the functions that distinguished functional guilds. Overall, this research illustrates the utility of functional based classification of microorganisms for characterizing ecosystem functions and highlights the potential application of engineered ecosystems to serve as experimental models for complex natural ecosystems.

Ecosystem engineering↗
NASA NTRS1992

Plausible surface models for Titan

Current understanding of the nature of Titan's surface and some new ideas for explaining the curious radar returns from Saturn's largest satellite are reviewed. Pre-Voyager models of the surface, based largely on cosmochemistry and the discovery of atmospheric methane, allowed for a range of possibilities, including pure methane oceans. The Voyager 1 flyby ruled out this last possibility, replacing it with compelling observational arguments in favor of a mixed light hydrocarbon and nitrogen ocean. Ground based radar observations indicated a surprisingly reflective surface which is inconsistent with a hydrocarbon ocean and more reminiscent of the Galilean Satellites. Nonetheless, passive radiometric measurements of the surface do not support the notion that Titan's surface is like that of the Galilean satellites. One of the arguments against hydrocarbon oceans reflecting radar energy is that most solid, complex hydrocarbon and nitriles will be denser than the liquid and sink. Nonetheless, many of the aerosol species will coagulate in highly nonspherical patterns, and some species probably polymerize in long chains. Such chains will have very low sedimendation velocities in the ocean and may remain near the surface through ocean mixing process. The prospect of an oceanic 'soup' of polar polymers acting as volume reflectors at radio wevelengths suggests that the interpretation of radar observations needs evaluation.

Lunine, Jonathan I.↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4/yr (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4/yr or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4/yr or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4/yr larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4/yr larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4/yr, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30° N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4/yr lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4/yr by 8 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

methane budget↗
NASA NTRS2001

Modeling Modern Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Interannual Variations 1982-1993 - 2

A global run of a process-based methane model [Walter et al., this issue] is performed using high-frequency atmospheric forcing fields from ECMWF reanalyses of the period from 1982 to 1993. We calculate global annual methane emissions to be 260 Tg/ yr. 25% of methane emissions originate from wetlands north of 30 deg. N. Only 60% of the produced methane is emitted, while the rest is re-oxidized. A comparison of zonal integrals of simulated global wetland emissions and results obtained by an inverse modeling approach shows good agreement. In a test with data from two wetlands, the seasonality of simulated and observed methane emissions agrees well. The effects of sub-grid scale variations in model parameters and input data are examined. Modeled methane emissions show high regional, seasonal and interannual variability. Seasonal cycles of methane emissions are dominated by temperature in high latitude wetlands, and by changes in the water table in tropical wetlands. Sensitivity tests show that +/- 1 C changes in temperature lead to +/- 20 % changes in methane emissions from wetlands. Uniform changes of +/- 20% in precipitation alter methane emissions by about +/- 18%. Limitations in the model are analyzed. Simulated interannual variations in methane emissions from wetlands are compared to observed atmospheric growth rate anomalies. Our model simulation results suggest that contributions from other sources than wetlands and/or the sinks are more important in the tropics than north-of 30 deg. N. In higher northern latitudes, it seems that a large part, of the observed interannual variations can be explained by variations in wetland emissions. Our results also suggest that reduced wetland emissions played an important role in the observed negative methane growth rate anomaly in 1992.

Walter, Bernadette P.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Global Wetland Contribution to 2000-2012 Atmospheric Methane Growth Rate Dynamics

Increasing atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have contributed to approximately 20% of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the importance of CH4 as a greenhouse gas, its atmospheric growth rate and dynamics over the past two decades, which include a stabilization period (1999-2006), followed by renewed growth starting in 2007, remain poorly understood. We provide an updated estimate of CH4 emissions from wetlands, the largest natural global CH4 source, for 2000-2012 using an ensemble of biogeochemical models constrained with remote sensing surface inundation and inventory-based wetland area data. Between 2000-2012, boreal wetland CH4 emissions increased by 1.2 Tg yr(sup -1) (-0.2-3.5 Tg yr(sup -1), tropical emissions decreased by 0.9 Tg yr(sup -1) (-3.2-1.1 Tg yr(sup -1), yet globally, emissions remained unchanged at 184 +/- 22 Tg yr(sup -1). Changing air temperature was responsible for increasing high-latitude emissions whereas declines in low-latitude wetland area decreased tropical emissions; both dynamics are consistent with features of predicted centennial-scale climate change impacts on wetland CH4 emissions. Despite uncertainties in wetland area mapping, our study shows that global wetland CH4 emissions have not contributed significantly to the period of renewed atmospheric CH4 growth, and is consistent with findings from studies that indicate some combination of increasing fossil fuel and agriculture-related CH4 emissions, and a decrease in the atmospheric oxidative sink.

Poulter, Benjamin↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Impacts of Fossil Fuel Emission Uncertainties and Accounting for 3-D Chemical CO2 Production on Inverse Natural Carbon Flux Estimates from Satellite and In Situ Data

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) inversions for estimating natural carbon fluxes typically do not allow for adjustment of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, despite significant uncertainties in emission inventories and inadequacies in the specification of international bunker emissions in inversions. Also, most inversions place CO2 release from fossil fuel combustion and biospheric sources entirely at the surface. However, a non-negligible portion of the emissions actually occurs in the form of reduced carbon species, which are eventually oxidized to CO2 downwind. Omission of this ‘chemical pump’ can result in a significant redistribution of the inferred total carbon fluxes among regions. We assess the impacts of different prescriptions of fossil fuel emissions and accounting for the chemical pump on flux estimation, with a novel aspect of conducting both satellite CO2 observation-based and surface in situ-based inversions. We apply 3-D carbon monoxide (CO) loss rates archived from a state-of-the-art GEOS chemistry and climate model simulation in a forward transport model run to simulate the distribution of CO2 originating from oxidation of carbon species. We also subtract amounts from the prior surface CO2 fluxes that are actually emitted in the form of fossil and biospheric CO, methane, and nonmethane volatile organic compounds (VOCs). We find that the posterior large-scale fluxes are generally insensitive to the finer-scale spatial differences between the ODIAC and CDIAC fossil fuel CO2 gridded datasets and assumptions about international bunker emissions. However, accounting for 3-D chemical CO2 production and the surface correction shifts the global carbon sink, e.g., from land to ocean and from the tropics to the north, with a magnitude and even direction that depend on assumptions about the surface correction. A GOSAT satellite-based inversion is more sensitive to the chemical pump than one using in situ observations, exhibiting substantial flux impacts of 0.28, 0.53, and -0.47 Pg C yr(exp -1) over tropical land, global land, and oceans, due to differences in the horizontal and vertical sampling of the wo observation types. Overall, the biases from neglecting the chemical pump appear to be minor relative to the flux estimate uncertainties and the differences between the in situ and GOSAT inversions, but their relative importance will grow in the future as observational coverage further increases and satellite retrieval biases decrease.

James S Wang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plasma-based global pathway analysis to understand the chemical kinetics of plasma-assisted combustion and fuel reforming

The Global Pathway Analysis (GPA) algorithm helps analyze the chemical kinetics of complex combustion systems by identifying important global reaction pathways connecting a source species to a sink species through various important intermediate species (i.e., hub species). Here, the present work aims to extend GPA algorithm to plasma-assisted combustion and fuel reforming systems to identify the dominant global pathways in such systems at various conditions. In addition, the present study extends the ability of GPA algorithm to identify reaction cycles involving the excitation of high-concentration species (e.g., O 2 , N 2 , and fuel) to their vibrational and electronic states and the subsequent de excitation to their ground state, based on their significance on the reactivity of plasma-assisted systems in terms of gas heating and radical production. Provisions are made in the GPA algorithm to evaluate the reactivity of identified re action pathways and cycles based on the element-flux transfer (i.e., dominance), heat release, and radical production rate. The newly developed Plasma-based Global Pathway Analysis (PGPA) algorithm is then used to analyze the plasma assisted combustion of ammonia and reforming of methane. The PGPA analyses elucidated the significance of vibrational-translational cycles on the reactivity of NH 3 /air mixtures. Further, analyses on the production of NO ascribed the early reforming of NH 3 to N 2 and H 2 in impeding the production of NO during plasma-assisted NH 3 ignition. Lastly, the enhanced reforming of CH 4 /N 2 mixtures using plasma has been attributed to electron impact dissociation of CH 4 when compared to thermal reforming. In contrast, conventional path-Flux analysis (PFA) was found to require significant manual effort and pre-analysis intuitions from expert knowledge, making it arduous to provide valuable in sights into plasma chemistry. The user-friendly and automated nature of PGPA thus provides a valuable tool for assessing the kinetics of plasma-assisted systems helpful in analyzing and, further, a foundation in reducing plasma-assisted chemistry, without the needs of expert knowledge.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cell to Ecosystem: Understanding Methane and Associated Nutrient Cycling by Sediment Hosted Syntrophic Consortia and Their Viral Predators

The anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM) is a significant worldwide microbial process in anoxic lake and ocean sediments, responsible for sequestering up to 80% of this greenhouse gas. Often considered a metabolism on the edge of thermodynamic probability, the impact of ANaerobic MEthane-oxidizing ‘ANME’ archaea on carbon and nutrient cycling in sediment ecosystems is far reaching. They not only serve as a sink for methane coupled to diverse electron acceptors, but also catalyze the transformation of many important nutrients including nitrogen, phosphate, and iron. While information about the potential mechanisms supporting metabolism in AOM is now available, remarkably little has been learned about their nutritional requirements, their dependencies on bacterial partners, and consequentially their ultimate impact on nutrient transformation and bioavailability within sedimentary ecosystems, and beyond. Further, the role of viruses within sediment ecosystems represents an essential but vastly understudied aspect of the transformation of carbon and nutrients by AOM. Viruses are now widely appreciated as central players in biogeochemical cycles across diverse ecosystems. These nanoscale predators have been shown to enhance the turnover of essential nutrients, thus stimulating microbial growth and environmental viruses themselves may constitute an important reservoir of nitrogen and phosphorous. Little is known about the role of viruses in methane-impacted sedimentary ecosystems, however prior genomic and microscopy evidence suggests that AOM consortia are susceptible to phage infection. The overarching scientific goal of this multi-disciplinary research proposal is to build on these recent discoveries and expand our understanding of interactions and fundamental activities involved in cycling of carbon and nutrients by syntrophic methanotrophic archaeal-bacterial consortia and associated viruses in anoxic sedimentary environments. Our three specific objectives are to 1) Quantify energy and nutrient exchange (e.g. N, P, Fe and vitamins) within AOM consortia and between ANME-bacterial partners; 2) Identify virus-host interactions associated with AOM and assess C and N transfer through viruses in methane-impacted sediment ecosystems; 3) Model energy and nutrient exchange in AOM consortia and viral-host interactions (i.e. viral activity), and their environmental distribution patterns. Our experimental emphasis cuts across scales that are important for understanding microbial and viral interactions and activities within their habitats, as well as community wide biogeochemical transformations. These research goals will be accomplished through the application of novel molecular techniques targeting DNA, RNA, proteins, and metabolites combined with a unique multi-modal analytical imaging pipeline. We will then model the ecophysiological capabilities of diverse sediment-hosted methanotrophic consortia to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the energetic and nutritional interactions between different AOM partner couplings that occur in sediments.

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