Multifidelity Finite Element and Surrogate Modeling of Post-Shock Miniature Springs for Optimal Experimental Design
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Shimanek, John David [Sandia National Laboratories↗
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Results for “multifidelity optimization”
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AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems
Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Bayesian, Multifidelity Operator Learning for Complex Engineering Systems–A Position Paper
Abstract Deep learning has significantly improved the state-of-the-art in computer vision and natural language processing, and holds great potential to design effective tools for predicting and simulating complex engineering systems. In particular, scientific machine learning seeks to apply the power of deep learning to scientific and engineering tasks, with operator learning (OL) emerging as a particularly effective tool. OL can approximate nonlinear operators arising in complex engineering systems, making it useful for simulating, designing, and controlling those systems. In this position paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of OL, including its potential applications to complex engineering domains. We cover three variations of OL approaches: deterministic OL for modeling nonautonomous systems, OL with uncertainty quantification (UQ) capabilities, and multifidelity OL. For each variation, we discuss drawbacks and potential applications to engineering, in addition to providing a detailed explanation. We also highlight how multifidelity OL approaches with UQ capabilities can be used to design, optimize, and control engineering systems. Finally, we outline some potential challenges for OL within the engineering domain.
Computer Science↗
Exploration of multifidelity UQ sampling strategies for computer network applications.
Network modeling is a powerful tool to enable rapid analysis of complex systems that can be challenging to study directly using physical testing. Here, two approaches are considered: emulation and simulation. The former runs real software on virtualized hardware, while the latter mimics the behavior of network components and their interactions in software. Although emulation provides an accurate representation of physical networks, this approach alone cannot guarantee the characterization of the system under realistic operative conditions. Operative conditions for physical networks are often characterized by intrinsic variability (payload size, packet latency, etc.) or a lack of precise knowledge regarding the network configuration (bandwidth, delays, etc.); therefore uncertainty quantification (UQ) strategies should be also employed. UQ strategies require multiple evaluations of the system with a number of evaluation instances that roughly increases with the problem dimensionality, i.e., the number of uncertain parameters. It follows that a typical UQ workflow for network modeling based on emulation can easily become unattainable due to its prohibitive computational cost. In this paper, a multifidelity sampling approach is discussed and applied to network modeling problems. The main idea is to optimally fuse information coming from simulations, which are a low-fidelity version of the emulation problem of interest, in order to decrease the estimator variance. By reducing the estimator variance in a sampling approach it is usually possible to obtain more reliable statistics and therefore a more reliable system characterization. Several network problems of increasing difficulty are presented. For each of them, the performance of the multifidelity estimator is compared with respect to the single fidelity counterpart, namely, Monte Carlo sampling. For all the test problems studied in this work, the multifidelity estimator demonstrated an increased efficiency with respect to MC.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Design and Analysis of Multifidelity Finite Element Simulations
Abstract The numerical accuracy of finite element analysis (FEA) depends on the number of finite elements used in the discretization of the space, which can be varied using the mesh size. The larger the number of elements, the more accurate the results are. However, the computational cost increases with the number of elements. In current practice, the experimenter chooses a mesh size that is expected to produce a reasonably accurate result, and for which the computer simulation can be completed in a reasonable amount of time. Improvements to this approach have been proposed using multifidelity modeling by choosing two or three mesh sizes. However, mesh size is a continuous parameter, and therefore, multifidelity simulations can be performed easily by choosing a different value for the mesh size for each of the simulations. In this article, we develop a method to optimally find the mesh sizes for each simulation and satisfy the same time constraints as a single or a double mesh size experiment. A range of different mesh sizes used in the proposed method allows one to fit multifidelity models more reliably and predict the outcome when meshes approach infinitesimally small, which is impossible to achieve in actual simulations. We illustrate our approach using an analytical function and a cantilever beam finite element analysis experiment.
Engineering↗
Hybrid Wing Body Planform Design with Vehicle Sketch Pad
The objective of this paper was to provide an update on NASA s current tools for design and analysis of hybrid wing body (HWB) aircraft with an emphasis on Vehicle Sketch Pad (VSP). NASA started HWB analysis using the Flight Optimization System (FLOPS). That capability is enhanced using Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter(Registered TradeMark). Model Center enables multifidelity analysis tools to be linked as an integrated structure. Two major components are linked to FLOPS as an example; a planform discretization tool and VSP. The planform discretization tool ensures the planform is smooth and continuous. VSP is used to display the output geometry. This example shows that a smooth & continuous HWB planform can be displayed as a three-dimensional model and rapidly sized and analyzed.
Wells, Douglas P.↗
Parallel simulated annealing with embedded machine learning and multifidelity models for reactor core design
This paper presents extensions to a penalty-free, parallel simulated annealing (SA) algorithm for multi-constrained combinatorial optimization with the aim of embedding multi-fidelity physics models into the annealing procedure. The method uses a low-fidelity, quickly executing model for rapid design space exploration and a high-fidelity model for detailed constraint resolution and on-the-fly bias correction. Machine learning models updated within the annealing procedure were used to bridge the gap between the multi-fidelity models, which led to accurate rapid exploration and efficient detailed constraint resolution. A software implementation of the new multi-fidelity optimization methods, called ML-PSA, was demonstrated on a continuous multi-fidelity optimization problem and a constrained combinatorial PWR lattice design problem. These problems demonstrate some of the features, parallel performance characteristics, and extensible nature of the multi-fidelity SA methods. This paper shows that the developed software and procedure are a general optimization tool that can be applied to a wide variety of scientific and engineering design optimization applications. (authors)
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Ensemble approximate control variate estimators: Applications to multi-fidelity importance sampling.
The recent growth in multifidelity uncertainty quantification has given rise to a large set of variance reduction techniques that leverage information from model ensembles to provide variance reduction for estimates of the statistics of a high-fidelity model. In this paper we provide two contributions: (1) we utilize an ensemble estimator to account for uncertainties in the optimal weights of approximate control variate (ACV) approaches and derive lower bounds on the number of samples required to guarantee variance reduction; and (2) we extend an existing multifidelity importance sampling (MFIS) scheme to leverage control variates. Our approach directly addresses a limitation of many multifidelity sampling strategies that require the usage of pilot samples to estimate covariances. As such we make significant progress towards both increasing the practicality of approximate control variates—for instance, by accounting for the effect of pilot samples—and using multifidelity approaches more effectively for estimating low-probability events. The numerical results indicate our hybrid MFIS-ACV estimator achieves up to 50% improvement in variance reduction over the existing state-of-the-art MFIS estimator, which had already shown an outstanding convergence rate compared to the Monte Carlo method, on several problems of computational mechanics.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Adaptive, Active Learning, and Multifidelity Monte Carlo Methods in the MOOSE Stochastic Tools Module
MOOSE is an open-source computational platform for constructing multi-physics models and executing them in a massively parallel fashion. It has a stochastic tools module (STM) for forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) and surrogate modeling. This presentation details some recent developments to the STM with respect to the implementation of adaptive, active learning, and multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for forward UQ of computational models. Specifically, the adaptive Monte Carlo methods include Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-driven algorithms like adaptive importance sampling and parallelized subset simulation for statistical QoI estimation, rare events analysis, and stochastic gradient-free optimization. The active learning methods include Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates and their training via Adam optimization, design of acquisition functions, and integration with samplers like Monte Carlo, adaptive importance, and parallelized subset simulation. These active learning methods are also designed to work in a batch mode, wherein, the required calls to the full computational model are executed in parallel whenever a user-specified batch size is met. The multifidelity methods in STM are broadly divided into two categories: hierarchical, where a defined hierarchy exists among the low-fidelity models, and peer, where all the low-fidelity models are treated equally. A GP surrogate is used to learn the differences between the low- and high-fidelity models in both multifidelity categories, and acquisition functions from the active learning classes are used to decide whether to rely on a low-fidelity model or call the expensive high-fidelity model. Alongside the software description and usage, applications are also presented to nuclear engineering computational models including a TRISO nuclear fuel particle, a reactor pressure vessel, and a heat-pipe microreactor.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Multi-output multilevel best linear unbiased estimators via semidefinite programming
Multifidelity forward uncertainty quantification (UQ) problems often involve multiple quantities of interest and heterogeneous models (e.g., different grids, equations, dimensions, physics, surrogate and reduced-order models). While computational efficiency is key in this context, multi-output strategies in multilevel/multifidelity methods are either sub-optimal or non-existent. In this paper we extend multilevel best linear unbiased estimators (MLBLUE) to multi-output forward UQ problems and we present new semidefinite programming formulations for their optimal setup. Not only do these formulations yield the optimal number of samples required, but also the optimal selection of low-fidelity models to use. While existing MLBLUE approaches are single-output only and require a non-trivial nonlinear optimization procedure, the new multi-output formulations can be solved reliably and efficiently. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of the new methods and formulations in practical UQ problems with model heterogeneity.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Multifidelity Ensemble Kalman Filtering Using Surrogate Models Defined by Theory-Guided Autoencoders
Data assimilation is a Bayesian inference process that obtains an enhanced understanding of a physical system of interest by fusing information from an inexact physics-based model, and from noisy sparse observations of reality. The multifidelity ensemble Kalman filter (MFEnKF) recently developed by the authors combines a full-order physical model and a hierarchy of reduced order surrogate models in order to increase the computational efficiency of data assimilation. The standard MFEnKF uses linear couplings between models, and is statistically optimal in case of Gaussian probability densities. This work extends the MFEnKF into to make use of a broader class of surrogate model such as those based on machine learning methods such as autoencoders non-linear couplings in between the model hierarchies. We identify the right-invertibility property for autoencoders as being a key predictor of success in the forecasting power of autoencoder-based reduced order models. We propose a methodology that allows us to construct reduced order surrogate models that are more accurate than the ones obtained via conventional linear methods. Numerical experiments with the canonical Lorenz'96 model illustrate that nonlinear surrogates perform better than linear projection-based ones in the context of multifidelity ensemble Kalman filtering. We additionality show a large-scale proof-of-concept result with the quasi-geostrophic equations, showing the competitiveness of the method with a traditional reduced order model-based MFEnKF.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Release on the Virtual Test Bed of a Molten Salt Reactor Experiment SAM-Pronghorn Coupled Model using the Domain Overlapping Approach
The nuclear industry is taking leaps in innovations with companies seeking a sustainable energy future through advanced nuclear reactors. The Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program seeks to substantiate and bolster the deployment of advanced reactors through flexible multifidelity, multiphysics simulations of advanced nuclear reactors. Applications like SAM for one-dimensional systems thermalhydraulics, and Pronghorn for multidimensional coarse mesh thermal-hydraulics, are geared to support innovations in industry by facilitating design, optimization, and licensing of advanced nuclear reactors. Coupling systems thermal-hydraulics and computational fluid dynamics codes can be difficult as the pressure coupling converges slowly; however, it is important to obtain the desired accuracy in each part of the primary loop. The authors of this model created an Overlapping-Domain Coupling (ODC) approach to coupling SAM and Pronghorn. Leveraging this coupling technique, a Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) model was developed and released to the NEAMS/National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) Virtual Test Bed (VTB). The MSRE was chosen to be modeled because of the wealth of experimental data available and because of the strong physics coupling between the core and primary circuit. This paper contextualizes the history of the MSRE, describes the thermal hydraulics models used, and detail the implementation of multidimensional thermal-hydraulics and system codes based on the ODC method for the MSRE model. Finally, this paper presents how other modelers could apply the SAM Pronghorn ODC for other advanced reactor models.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Screening and Discovery of Metal Compound Active Sites for Strong and Selective Adsorption of N 2 in Air
Photocatalytic nitrogen fixation has the potential to provide a greener route for producing nitrogen-based fertilizers under ambient conditions. Computational screening is a promising route to discover new materials for the nitrogen fixation process, but requires identifying “descriptors” that can be efficiently computed. In this work, we argue that selectivity toward the adsorption of molecular nitrogen and oxygen can act as a key descriptor. A catalyst that can selectively adsorb nitrogen and resist poisoning of oxygen and other molecules present in air has the potential to facilitate the nitrogen fixation process under ambient conditions. Here we provide a framework for active site screening based on multifidelity density functional theory (DFT) calculations for a range of metal oxides, oxyborides, and oxyphosphides. The screening methodology consists of initial low-fidelity fixed geometry calculations and a second screening in which more expensive geometry optimizations were performed. The approach identifies promising active sites on several TiO 2 polymorph surfaces and a VBO 4 surface, and the full nitrogen reduction pathway is studied with the BEEF-vdW and HSE06 functionals on two active sites. The findings suggest that metastable TiO 2 polymorphs may play a role in photocatalytic nitrogen fixation, and that VBO 4 may be an interesting material for further studies.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Release on the Virtual Test Bed of an MSRE thermal hydraulics model
The nuclear industry is taking leaps in innovations with companies seeking a sustainable energy future through advanced nuclear reactors. The \gls{DOE}’s \gls{neams} program seeks to substantiate and bolster the deployment of advanced reactors through flexible multifidelity, multiphysics simulations of advanced nuclear reactors. Applications like SAM for one-dimensional systems thermal-hydraulics, and Pronghorn for multidimensional coarse mesh thermal-hydraulics, are geared to support innovations in industry by facilitating design, optimization, and licensing of advanced nuclear reactors. Coupling systems thermal-hydraulics and computational fluid dynamics codes can be difficult as the pressure coupling converges slowly; however, it is important to obtain the desired accuracy in each part of the primary loop. The authors of this model created an \gls{odc}~\cite{Mau23} approach to coupling SAM and Pronghorn. Leveraging this coupling technique, a \gls{msre} model was developed and released to the \gls{neams}/\gls{nric} \gls{vtb}. The \gls{msre} was chosen to be modeled because of the wealth of experimental data available and because of the strong physics coupling between the core and primary circuit \cite{doi:10.13182/NT8-2-118}. This document contextualizes the history of the \gls{msre}, describes the thermal hydraulics models used, and detail the implementation of multidimensional thermal-hydraulics and system codes based on the \gls{odc} method~\cite{Penn} for the \gls{msre} model. Finally, this document presents how other modelers could apply the SAM-Pronghorn \gls{odc} for other advanced reactor models. Current item is the set of slides for ANS Winter 23. The release of the model and the ANS summary have already been approved
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Release on the Virtual Test Bed of an MSRE thermal hydraulics model
The nuclear industry is taking leaps in innovations with companies seeking a sustainable energy future through advanced nuclear reactors. The \gls{DOE}’s \gls{neams} program seeks to substantiate and bolster the deployment of advanced reactors through flexible multifidelity, multiphysics simulations of advanced nuclear reactors. Applications like SAM for one-dimensional systems thermal-hydraulics, and Pronghorn for multidimensional coarse mesh thermal-hydraulics, are geared to support innovations in industry by facilitating design, optimization, and licensing of advanced nuclear reactors. Coupling systems thermal-hydraulics and computational fluid dynamics codes can be difficult as the pressure coupling converges slowly; however, it is important to obtain the desired accuracy in each part of the primary loop. The authors of this model created an \gls{odc}~\cite{Mau23} approach to coupling SAM and Pronghorn. Leveraging this coupling technique, a \gls{msre} model was developed and released to the \gls{neams}/\gls{nric} \gls{vtb}. The \gls{msre} was chosen to be modeled because of the wealth of experimental data available and because of the strong physics coupling between the core and primary circuit \cite{doi:10.13182/NT8-2-118}. This document contextualizes the history of the \gls{msre}, describes the thermal hydraulics models used, and detail the implementation of multidimensional thermal-hydraulics and system codes based on the \gls{odc} method~\cite{Penn} for the \gls{msre} model. Finally, this document presents how other modelers could apply the SAM-Pronghorn \gls{odc} for other advanced reactor models.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
HydroChrono: An Open-Source Hydrodynamics Package for Project Chrono
In this paper we present the development and verification of HydroChrono, a hydrodynamics package for the Project Chrono physics engine. This package includes the implementation of hydrodynamics equations, the added mass for multibody systems, the development of I/O functions as well as a Python API, and comparison against standard reference cases and other existing tools. HydroChrono provides a flexible, fully open-source solution for simulating wave energy converters (WECs), floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) platforms, and other hydrodynamic systems. Here we show, via comparisons with existing tools for benchmark verification cases, that HydroChrono accurately models hydrodynamic forces - making it a useful tool for the design and optimization of these systems. Additionally, the integration of HydroChrono with Project Chrono offers access to finite element modeling capabilities and high-fidelity modelling - with Chrono's existing coupling to CFD and SPH codes. This provides numerical modelers with a multifidelity simulation framework for designing and validating these systems. The development of HydroChrono provides a new, open-source solution for simulating hydrodynamic systems. Its compatibility with other simulation tools enables a more streamlined and efficient design process, advancing the field and providing new opportunities for innovation in this area.
BEM↗
Improving Multi-Model Trajectory Simulation Estimators using Model Selection and Tuning
Multi-model Monte Carlo methods have been demonstrated to be an efficient and accurate alternative to standard Monte Carlo (MC) in the model-based propagation of uncertainty in entry, descent, and landing (EDL) applications. These multi-model MC methods fuse predictions from low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity EDL model of interest to produce unbiased statistics with a fraction of the computational cost. The accuracy and efficiency of the multi-model MC methods are dependent upon the magnitude of correlations of the low-fidelity models with the high-fidelity model, but also upon the correlation amongst the low-fidelity models, and their relative computational cost. Because of this layer of complexity, the question of how to optimally select the set of low-fidelity models has remained open. In this work, methods for optimal model construction and tuning are investigated as a means to increase the speed and precision of trajectory simulation for EDL. Specifically, the focus is on the inclusion of low-fidelity model tuning within the sample allocation optimization that accompanies multi-model MC methods. Preliminary results indicate that low-fidelity model tuning can significantly improve efficiency and precision of trajectory simulations and provide an increased edge to multi-model MC methods when compared to standard MC. The challenges and potential benefits to exploring a fully iterative and comprehensive optimization strategy in future work are highlighted.
uncertainty quantification↗
Analysis of the Challenges in Developing Sample-Based Multi-fidelity Estimators for Non-deterministic Models
Multifidelity (MF) uncertainty quantification (UQ) seeks to leverage and fuse information from a collection of models to achieve greater statistical accuracy with respect to a single-fidelity counterpart, while maintaining an efficient use of computational resources. Despite many recent advancements in MF UQ, several challenges remain and these often limit its practical impact in certain application areas. In this manuscript, we focus on the challenges introduced by nondeterministic models to sampling MF UQ estimators. Nondeterministic models produce different responses for the same inputs, which means their outputs are effectively noisy. MF UQ is complicated by this noise since many state-of-the-art approaches rely on statistics, e.g., the correlation among models, to optimally fuse information and allocate computational resources. Here, we demonstrate how the statistics of the quantities of interest, which impact the design, effectiveness, and use of existing MF UQ techniques, change as functions of the noise. With this in hand, we extend the unifying approximate control variate framework to account for nondeterminism, providing for the first time a rigorous means of comparing the effect of nondeterminism on different multifidelity estimators and analyzing their performance with respect to one another. Numerical examples are presented throughout the manuscript to illustrate and discuss the consequences of the presented theoretical results.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗