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At least 37 records · Page 2

The Integrated Medical Model: A Probabilistic Simulation Model for Predicting In-Flight Medical Risks

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that uses simulation to predict mission medical risk. Given a specific mission and crew scenario, medical events are simulated using Monte Carlo methodology to provide estimates of resource utilization, probability of evacuation, probability of loss of crew, and the amount of mission time lost due to illness. Mission and crew scenarios are defined by mission length, extravehicular activity (EVA) schedule, and crew characteristics including: sex, coronary artery calcium score, contacts, dental crowns, history of abdominal surgery, and EVA eligibility. The Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) houses the model inputs for one hundred medical conditions using in-flight, analog, and terrestrial medical data. Inputs include incidence, event durations, resource utilization, and crew functional impairment. Severity of conditions is addressed by defining statistical distributions on the dichotomized best and worst-case scenarios for each condition. The outcome distributions for conditions are bounded by the treatment extremes of the fully treated scenario in which all required resources are available and the untreated scenario in which no required resources are available. Upon occurrence of a simulated medical event, treatment availability is assessed, and outcomes are generated depending on the status of the affected crewmember at the time of onset, including any pre-existing functional impairments or ongoing treatment of concurrent conditions. The main IMM outcomes, including probability of evacuation and loss of crew life, time lost due to medical events, and resource utilization, are useful in informing mission planning decisions. To date, the IMM has been used to assess mission-specific risks with and without certain crewmember characteristics, to determine the impact of eliminating certain resources from the mission medical kit, and to design medical kits that maximally benefit crew health while meeting mass and volume constraints.

Risk Analysis↗

Improving representation of convective transport for scale‐aware parameterization: 2. Analysis of cloud‐resolving model simulations

Abstract Following Part I, in which 3‐D cloud‐resolving model (CRM) simulations of a squall line and mesoscale convective complex in the midlatitude continental and the tropical regions are conducted and evaluated, we examine the scale dependence of eddy transport of water vapor, evaluate different eddy transport formulations, and improve the representation of convective transport across all scales by proposing a new formulation that more accurately represents the CRM‐calculated eddy flux. CRM results show that there are strong grid‐spacing dependencies of updraft and downdraft fractions regardless of altitudes, cloud life stage, and geographical location. As for the eddy transport of water vapor, updraft eddy flux is a major contributor to total eddy flux in the lower and middle troposphere. However, downdraft eddy transport can be as large as updraft eddy transport in the lower atmosphere especially at the mature stage of midlatitude continental convection. We show that the single‐updraft approach significantly underestimates updraft eddy transport of water vapor because it fails to account for the large internal variability of updrafts, while a single downdraft represents the downdraft eddy transport of water vapor well. We find that using as few as three updrafts can account for the internal variability of updrafts well. Based on the evaluation with the CRM simulated data, we recommend a simplified eddy transport formulation that considers three updrafts and one downdraft. Such formulation is similar to the conventional one but much more accurately represents CRM‐simulated eddy flux across all grid scales.

Liu, Yi‐Chin↗

Piloted Evaluation of a UH-60 Mixer Equivalent Turbulence Simulation Model

A simulation study of a recently developed hover/low speed Mixer Equivalent Turbulence Simulation (METS) model for the UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter was conducted in the NASA Ames Research Center Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS). The experiment was a continuation of previous work to develop a simple, but validated, turbulence model for hovering rotorcraft. To validate the METS model, two experienced test pilots replicated precision hover tasks that had been conducted in an instrumented UH-60 helicopter in turbulence. Objective simulation data were collected for comparison with flight test data, and subjective data were collected that included handling qualities ratings and pilot comments for increasing levels of turbulence. Analyses of the simulation results show good analytic agreement between the METS model and flight test data, with favorable pilot perception of the simulated turbulence. Precision hover tasks were also repeated using the more complex rotating-frame SORBET (Simulation Of Rotor Blade Element Turbulence) model to generate turbulence. Comparisons of the empirically derived METS model with the theoretical SORBET model show good agreement providing validation of the more complex blade element method of simulating turbulence.

Lusardi, Jeff A.↗

Molecular Simulation Models of Carbon Dioxide Intercalation in Hydrated Sodium Montmorillonite

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies provide effective options for reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and mitigating global climate change. Geologic CO 2 storage involves the injection of supercritical CO 2 into deep geologic formations overlain by sealing formations and geologic traps that prevent the CO 2 from escaping. The ability of seals to retain injected CO 2 depends on their permeability and geomechanical property evolution. Caprocks are often comprised of shale or mudstone enriched with swelling clay minerals that can expand or contract upon interaction with CO 2 . Intercalation of CO 2 into interlayer of swelling clay causes evolution of the geomechanical stress and can promote fracture formation. The interlayer of expanded clay provides ample space for additional permanent CO 2 storage and its subsequent transformation into carbonates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Generic Multibody Parachute Simulation Model

Flight simulation of dynamic atmospheric vehicles with parachute systems is a complex task that is not easily modeled in many simulation frameworks. In the past, the performance of vehicles with parachutes was analyzed by simulations dedicated to parachute operations and were generally not used for any other portion of the vehicle flight trajectory. This approach required multiple simulation resources to completely analyze the performance of the vehicle. Recently, improved software engineering practices and increased computational power have allowed a single simulation to model the entire flight profile of a vehicle employing a parachute.

Neuhaus, Jason Richard↗

Improving Land Surface Temperature Simulation in CoLM Over the Tibetan Plateau through Fractional Vegetation Cover Derived from a Remotely Sensed Clumping Index and Model-Simulated Leaf Area Index

Parameterizations of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in land surface models have important effects on simulations of surface energy budget, especially in arid and semiarid regions. This study uses a FVC scheme in which FVC is derived from leaf area index and a remotely sensed clumping index. The performance of the new scheme (SMFVC) is evaluated against Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) and in situ soil temperature observations, together with two other FVC schemes, a general FVC scheme (CTL) based on land cover map and a climatology-based FVC scheme (RSFVC) that uses long-term remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index of MODIS. The three FVC schemes were implemented in the Common Land Model (CoLM) and applied in the Tibetan Plateau using the same forcing data and default parameters. Our results demonstrate that FVC schemes have significant influence on the CoLM performance: (1) the RSFVC and SMFVC schemes significantly reduce the LST biases found in CTL, particularly in grassland and during summer; (2) soil temperature evaluation by in situ observations from three networks on the Tibetan Plateau corroborates the LST results; and (3) the improvements are mainly related to representing temporal (seasonal) variability and subgrid heterogeneity of FVC, which improves surface albedo and surface energy balance. In other words, by including more vegetation characteristics, such as using a clumping index, land surface models may better simulate surface vegetation condition and further better represent the land surface energy budget over the Tibetan Plateau.

Li, Chengwei↗

A stochastic perturbation method to generate inflow turbulence in large-eddy simulation models: Application to neutrally stratified atmospheric boundary layers

Despite the variety of existing methods, efficient generation of turbulent inflow conditions for large-eddy simulation (LES) models remains a challenging and active research area. Herein, we extend our previous research on the cell perturbation method, which uses a novel stochastic approach based upon finite amplitude perturbations of the potential temperature field applied within a region near the inflow boundaries of the LES domain [Muñoz-Esparza et al., “Bridging the transition from mesoscale to microscale turbulence in numerical weather prediction models,” Boundary-Layer Meteorol., 153, 409–440 (2014)]. The objective was twofold: (i) to identify the governing parameters of the method and their optimum values and (ii) to generalize the results over a broad range of atmospheric large-scale forcing conditions, U{sub g} = 5 − 25 m s{sup −1}, where U{sub g} is the geostrophic wind. We identified the perturbation Eckert number, Ec=U{sub g}{sup 2}/ρc{sub p}θ{sup ~}{sub pm}, to be the parameter governing the flow transition to turbulence in neutrally stratified boundary layers. Here, θ{sup ~}{sub pm} is the maximum perturbation amplitude applied, c{sub p} is the specific heat capacity at constant pressure, and ρ is the density. The optimal Eckert number was found for nonlinear perturbations allowed by Ec ≈ 0.16, which instigate formation of hairpin-like vortices that most rapidly transition to a developed turbulent state. Larger Ec numbers (linear small-amplitude perturbations) result in streaky structures requiring larger fetches to reach the quasi-equilibrium solution, while smaller Ec numbers lead to buoyancy dominated perturbations exhibiting difficulties for hairpin-like vortices to emerge. Cell perturbations with wavelengths within the inertial range of three-dimensional turbulence achieved identical quasi-equilibrium values of resolved turbulent kinetic energy, q, and Reynolds-shear stress, . In contrast, large-scale perturbations acting at the production range exhibited reduced levels of , due to the formation of coherent streamwise structures, while q was maintained, requiring larger fetches for the turbulent solution to stabilize. Additionally, the cell perturbation method was compared to a synthetic turbulence generator. The proposed stochastic approach provided at least the same efficiency in developing realistic turbulence, while accelerating the formation of large-scales associated with production of turbulent kinetic energy. Also, it is computationally inexpensive and does not require any turbulent information.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Simulation of Heterogeneous Atom Probe Tip Shape Evolution during Field Evaporation Using a Level Set Method and Different Evaporation Models

Accurate reconstruction of spatial positions of field evaporated ions from detector patterns depends on a correct understanding of the tip shape evolution and evaporation laws of component atoms. Reconstruction artifacts introduced in the heterogeneous tip can be contributed by the assumption on homogeneous evaporation behavior. A level set method based specimen shape evolution model is developed in this study to simulate the evaporation of synthetic layered-structured atom probe tip. The simulation results of the shape evolution by the present level set model agree well with the literature data using other numerical approaches, i.e. finite difference method. The asymmetric evolving shape predicted by the level set model demonstrates that the complex evaporation behavior of heterogeneous tips and interface curvature can potentially lead to the tip reconstruction distortion. Compared with other shape evaporation methods the new method provides considerably higher resolution and computational efficiency with the aid of the intrinsic subgrid scale accuracy.

atom probe tomography, field evaporation, tip shap↗

Feedback density and causal complexity of simulation model structure

Measures of simulation model complexity generally focus on outputs; we propose measuring the complexity of a model’s causal structure to gain insight into its fundamental character. This article introduces tools for measuring causal complexity. First, we introduce a method for developing a model’s causal structure diagram, which characterises the causal interactions present in the code. Causal structure diagrams facilitate comparison of simulation models, including those from different paradigms. Next, we develop metrics for evaluating a model’s causal complexity using its causal structure diagram. We discuss cyclomatic complexity as a measure of the intricacy of causal structure and introduce two new metrics that incorporate the concept of feedback, a fundamental component of causal structure. The first new metric introduced here is feedback density, a measure of the cycle-based interconnectedness of causal structure. The second metric combines cyclomatic complexity and feedback density into a comprehensive causal complexity measure. Finally, we demonstrate these complexity metrics on simulation models from multiple paradigms and discuss potential uses and interpretations. These tools enable direct comparison of models across paradigms and provide a mechanism for measuring and discussing complexity based on a model’s fundamental assumptions and design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Investigations of vertical wind variations at a mountain top in the Himalaya using Doppler Lidar observations and model simulations

Hight-resolved observations of vertical winds remain nearly non-existing over the Himalayas, despite of an­ticipated crucial role of vertical motions in transporting pollution across the Himalayan hms. The present study analyze the vertical wind observations from surface to 1 km above ground level over Manora Peak (29.4° N; 79.5° E; 1958 m ams!) in the Himalaya performed using a Doppler Lidar during the Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX). Vertical wind exhibited a pronounced diurnal variability at Manora Peak comprising of upward motions during the daytime (05-10 UT) and downward motions during nighttime typical of a mountain­valley system. Mean vertical wind speeds are observed to be varying from -0.8 to +0.8 ms- 1 during the study period with a variance of 0.1-1.5 m2s·2, which is attributed to the thermally driven turbulence. Mean vertical winds are observed to be stronger in the Doppler Lidar profiles above Manora Peak (-0_8 to 0.8 ms- 1) as compared to near surface measurements at this station using an ultrasonic anemometer ( -0.4 to 0.4 ms - 1 ), and low altitude stations in India. Daytime vertical wind speeds are observed to be higher during pre-monsoon (0.81 ms- 1), as compared to post-monsoon (0.24 ms- 1) and winter (0.33 ms- 1)_ Average Black Carbon (BC) concentrations are significantly higher during strong upward vertical winds, which indicates efficient transport of polluted air mass from low-altitude regions to the Himalaya. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model reproduces the observed diurnal pattern in the vertical wind at the observation site however the model un­derestimates the variability.

Shukla, K K.↗

Expert systems and simulation models; Proceedings of the Seminar, Tucson, AZ, November 18, 19, 1985

The seminar presents papers on modeling and simulation methodology, artificial intelligence and expert systems, environments for simulation/expert system development, and methodology for simulation/expert system development. Particular attention is given to simulation modeling concepts and their representation, modular hierarchical model specification, knowledge representation, and rule-based diagnostic expert system development. Other topics include the combination of symbolic and discrete event simulation, real time inferencing, and the management of large knowledge-based simulation projects.

Source record↗

Incorporation of shuttle CCT parameters in computer simulation models

Computer simulations of shuttle missions have become increasingly important during recent years. The complexity of mission planning for satellite launch and repair operations which usually involve EVA has led to the need for accurate visibility and access studies. The PLAID modeling package used in the Man-Systems Division at Johnson currently has the necessary capabilities for such studies. In addition, the modeling package is used for spatial location and orientation of shuttle components for film overlay studies such as the current investigation of the hydrogen leaks found in the shuttle flight. However, there are a number of differences between the simulation studies and actual mission viewing. These include image blur caused by the finite resolution of the CCT monitors in the shuttle and signal noise from the video tubes of the cameras. During the course of this investigation the shuttle CCT camera and monitor parameters are incorporated into the existing PLAID framework. These parameters are specific for certain camera/lens combinations and the SNR characteristics of these combinations are included in the noise models. The monitor resolution is incorporated using a Gaussian spread function such as that found in the screen phosphors in the shuttle monitors. Another difference between the traditional PLAID generated images and actual mission viewing lies in the lack of shadows and reflections of light from surfaces. Ray tracing of the scene explicitly includes the lighting and material characteristics of surfaces. The results of some preliminary studies using ray tracing techniques for the image generation process combined with the camera and monitor effects are also reported.

Huntsberger, Terry↗

Conceptual Modeling Framework for E-Area PA HELP Infiltration Model Simulations

A conceptual modeling framework based on the proposed E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) closure cap design is presented for conducting Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) model simulations of intact and subsided cap infiltration scenarios for the next E-Area Performance Assessment (PA).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

PSH Transient Simulation Modeling

PSH Transient Simulation Modeling presentation from the WPTO FY14 - FY16 Peer Review. Transient effects are an important consideration when designing a PSH system, yet numerical techniques for hydraulic transient analysis still need improvements for adjustable-speed (AS) reversible pump-turbine applications.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Seasonally Frozen Soil Monitoring Using Passive Microwave Satellite Data and Simulation Modeling

Satellite data and simulation modeling were used to assess seasonally frozen soils in the central US - Canada borders area (46-53 degrees N and 96-108 degrees). We used Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) satellite data to delineate the top layer of frozen soils. SMMR is a passive microwave sensor having five channels (6.6, 10, 18, 21 and 37 GHz) with a horizontal and vertical polarization. SMRR data are available between 1978-1987 with noon and midnight overpass and footprint sizes between 25 km and 150 km. SMMR data were processed from resampled 1/4 degree grid cells during fall freeze-up and spring thaw (fall 1985 - spring 1987). The dielectric properties of a target may directly affect the satellite signal. The dielectric value is an order of magnitude smaller for frozen soil water. There are other significant changes to the emitted microwave signal from changes to the surface physical temperature, attenuation of the soil signal from plant water and soil moisture. We further characterized the temporal and spatial dynamic of frozen soils using the FroST (Frozen Soil Temperature) simulation model. The FroST model was used to further predict soil water and ice content, and soil temperature. SMMR results were compared versus 5-cm soil temperature data from available weather stations (14 in Canada and 11 for available months in the US). SMMR data were analyzed as a function of frequency, polarization, polarization difference, and "frequency gradient". In addition, vegetation density, physical temperature and snow depth were also considered. Preliminary analysis of SMMR derived frozen soil/thaw classification using a simple threshold classification indicates a mean overall classification accuracy by season of 85 percent. A sensitivity analysis for different soils with varying amounts of snow was conducted with FroST, which showed that the amount of snow, and the time of snow fall and melt affected the ice and water content, and depth of thaw. These results indicate a potential source of flooding and erosion under conditions when melting snow and spring rains provide a source of infiltrating water.

Toll, D. L.↗