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Central and Eastern North America Ground-Motion Characterization (NGA-East)

This document is the final project report of the Next Generation Attenuation for Central and Eastern North America (CENA) project (NGA-East). The NGA-East objective was to develop a new ground-motion characterization (GMC) model for the CENA region. The GMC model consists of a set of new ground-motion models (GMMs) for median and standard deviation of ground motions and their associated weights to be used with logic-trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses (PSHA). NGA-East is a large multidisciplinary project coordinated by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), at the University of California. The project has two components: (1) a set of scientific research tasks, and (2) a model-building component following the framework of the “Seismic Senior Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3” (Budnitz et al. 1997; NRC 2012). Component (2) is built on the scientific results of component (1) of the NGA-East project. This report documents the tasks under component (2) of the project. Under component (1) of NGA-East, several scientific issues were addressed, including: (a) development of a new database of ground motion data recorded in CENA; (b) development of a regionalized ground-motion map for CENA, (c) definition of the reference site condition; (d) simulations of ground motions based on different methodologies; and (e) development of numerous GMMs for CENA. The scientific tasks of NGA-East were all documented as a series of PEER reports. The scope of component (2) of NGA-East was to develop the complete GMC. This component was designed as a SSHAC Level 3 study with the goal of capturing the ground motions’ center, body, and range of the technically defensible interpretations in light of the available data and models. The SSHAC process involves four key tasks: evaluation, integration, formal review by the Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP), and documentation (this report). Key tasks documented in this report include review and evaluation of the empirical groundmotion database, the regionalization of ground motions, and screening sets of candidate GMMs. These are followed by the development of new median and standard deviation GMMs, the development of new analyses tools for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty in ground motions, and the documentation of implementation guidelines of the complete GMC for PSHA computations. Appendices include further documentation of the relevant SSHAC process and additional supporting technical documentation of numerous sensitivity analyses results. The PEER reports documenting component (1) of NGA-East are also considered “attachments” to the current report and are all available online on the PEER website (https://peer.berkeley.edu/). The final NGA-East GMC model includes a set of 17 GMMs defined for 24 ground-motion intensity measures, applicable to CENA in the moment magnitude range of 4.0 to 8.2 and covering distances up to 1500 km. Standard deviation models are also provided for site-specific analysis (single-station standard deviation) and for general PSHA applications (ergodic standard deviation). Adjustment factors are provided for consideration of source-depth effects and hanging-wall effects, as well as for hazard computations at sites in the Gulf Coast region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model for Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada (Rev. 0)

A new, revised three-dimensional (3-D) hydrostratigraphic framework model (HFM) for the Central and Western Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units 101 and 102 was completed in 2019. The initial (Phase I) model was completed in 2002 and was documented in A Hydrostratigraphic Model and Alternatives for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada (BN, 2002). Subsequent flow and transport modeling revealed the need to collect additional data to reduce uncertainties. The Phase II data collection and characterization effort included extensive well drilling and testing activities, and rebuilding of the Phase I 3-D HFM, resulting in the Phase II HFM (NSTec, 2014). Further drilling (Well ER-20-12), data collection, and interpretive work (e.g., Thirsty Canyon Lineament [Wurtz and Day, 2018]) were incorporated into the Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (PM-OV) HFM. The PM-OV HFM incorporates the area of interest from the Phase II HFM and adds additional areas, primarily to the north and west with minor additions to the south and east. The new, expanded area matches the PM-OV groundwater basin as defined in Fenelon et al. (2016) and includes Pahute Mesa, a former nuclear testing area at the Nevada National Security Site; and Oasis Valley, a groundwater discharge area downgradient from contaminant source areas on Pahute Mesa. The data and information necessary to build the PM-OV HFM are provided in Navarro (2019). The PM-OV HFM will be used by hydrologic modelers who are tasked with developing a model to determine how contaminants are transported by groundwater flow in an area of complex geology. The model area is large (more than 6,250 square kilometers) and geologically complex, including Paleozoic- to Mesozoic-age structures (e.g., thrust faults, Thirsty Canyon Lineament), at least seven Tertiary-age calderas, several intrusive bodies, and many relatively recent basin-and-range normal faults. Investigators from the U.S. Geological Survey; National Security Technologies, LLC; National Laboratories; and U.S. Department of Energy contractors have organized the more than 300 volcanic units and other rocks in the model area into 77 hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs). The volcanic rocks are subdivided into 42 aquifers, 11 confining units, and 9 composite units (containing both aquifer and confining unit rocks). The underlying pre-Tertiary rocks were divided into 5 HSUs, comprising 2 aquifers and 3 confining units. The model also includes 1 alluvial aquifer unit, 8 intrusive confining units, and 1 granite confining unit. The model depicts the thickness, extent, and geometric relationships of these HSUs (“layers” in the model) along with all the major structural features that control them, including calderas and faults. The most substantive differences between the Phase II HFM and the PM-OVHFM include (1) addition of the new data and resulting revised interpretations from the additional area encompassed by the PM-OV groundwater basin; (2) incorporation of 16 new faults; (3) 12 boreholes from the northern extension; (4) 2 additional caldera-collapse collars; and (5) correlation of the simulated faulting and hydrostratigraphy in the eastern part of the model domain with the delineations represented in the neighboring Rainier Mesa-Shoshone Mountain HFM-Prime and Yucca Flat-Climax Mine HFM. All PM-OV HFM delineations were based on published and unpublished data from geophysical investigations, surface geologic maps, and drill-hole records. Phase II approached model uncertainty using the model-building software to test model configurations and hydrologic consequences using a range of values for parameters such as fault offset amounts and HSU elevations. The PM-OV HFM expands on this approach to encompass the entire PM-OV groundwater basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multimodality in the Search for New Physics in Pulsar Timing Data and the Case of Kination-amplified Gravitational-wave Background from Inflation

We investigate the kination-amplified inflationary gravitational-wave background (GWB) interpretation of the signal recently reported by various pulsar timing array (PTA) experiments. Kination is a post-inflationary phase in the expansion history dominated by the kinetic energy of some scalar field, characterized by a stiff equation of state w = 1. Within the inflationary GWB model, we identify two modes that can fit the current data sets (NANOGrav and EPTA) with equal likelihood: the kination-amplification (KA) mode and the ordinary, no-kination-amplification (no-KA) mode. The multimodality of the likelihood motivates a Bayesian analysis with nested sampling. We analyze the free spectra of current PTA data and mock free spectra constructed with higher signal-to-noise ratios using nested sampling. The analysis of the mock spectrum designed to be consistent with the best fit to the NANOGrav 15 yr (NG15) data successfully reveals the expected bimodal posterior for the first time while excluding the reheating mode that appears in the fit to the current NG15 data, making a case for our correct and comprehensive treatment of potential multimodal posteriors arising from future PTA data sets. The resultant Bayes factor is $\mathcal{B}$ $\equiv$ Z no–KA /Z KA = 2.9 ± 1.9, indicating comparable statistical significance between the two modes. Given the theoretical model-building challenges of producing highly blue-tilted primordial tensor spectra, the KA mode has the advantage of requiring less blue primordial spectra, compared with the no-KA mode. The synergy between future cosmic microwave background polarization, pulsar timing, and laser interferometer measurements of gravitational waves will help resolve the ambiguity implied by the multimodal posterior in PTA-only searches.

Cosmology↗

Clearing up the Strong $CP$ problem

The absence of a neutron electric dipole moment (EDM) constrains the quantum chromodynamics (QCD) theta angle to be less than one part in ten billion, posing the Strong $CP$ problem. We revisit two classes of proposed solutions. First, we show that when $P$ or $CP$ is realized as a gauged discrete symmetry - as can arise in quantum gravity - the vacuum necessarily preserves $CP$, contrary to recent claims that discrete-symmetry solutions fail. Gauged discrete models face model-building challenges, such as avoiding contributions to the neutron EDM after spontaneous $P$ or $CP$ breaking, but in principle have no fundamental obstructions. Second, we critically examine recent arguments that the Strong $CP$ problem is illusory, demonstrating that a nonzero neutron EDM at finite $\barθ$ follows directly from well-understood QCD dynamics. Taken together, our results reinforce the reality of the Strong $CP$ problem and highlight gauged discrete-symmetry realizations of $P$ or $CP$ as plausible solutions.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

Modelling of DNA-protein recognition

Computer model-building procedures using stereochemical principles together with theoretical energy calculations appear to be, at this stage, the most promising route toward the elucidation of DNA-protein binding schemes and recognition principles. A review of models and bonding principles is conducted and approaches to modeling are considered, taking into account possible di-hydrogen-bonding schemes between a peptide and a base (or a base pair) of a double-stranded nucleic acid in the major groove, aspects of computer graphic modeling, and a search for isogeometric helices. The energetics of recognition complexes is discussed and several models for peptide DNA recognition are presented.

Rein, R.↗

StarPlan: A model-based diagnostic system for spacecraft

The Sunnyvale Division of Ford Aerospace created a model-based reasoning capability for diagnosing faults in space systems. The approach employs reasoning about a model of the domain (as it is designed to operate) to explain differences between expected and actual telemetry; i.e., to identify the root cause of the discrepancy (at an appropriate level of detail) and determine necessary corrective action. A development environment, named Paragon, was implemented to support both model-building and reasoning. The major benefit of the model-based approach is the capability for the intelligent system to handle faults that were not anticipated by a human expert. The feasibility of this approach for diagnosing problems in a spacecraft was demonstrated in a prototype system, named StarPlan. Reasoning modules within StarPlan detect anomalous telemetry, establish goals for returning the telemetry to nominal values, and create a command plan for attaining the goals. Before commands are implemented, their effects are simulated to assure convergence toward the goal. After the commands are issued, the telemetry is monitored to assure that the plan is successful. These features of StarPlan, along with associated concerns, issues and future directions, are discussed.

Heher, Dennis↗

Building the Scientific Modeling Assistant: An interactive environment for specialized software design

The construction of scientific software models is an integral part of doing science, both within NASA and within the scientific community at large. Typically, model-building is a time-intensive and painstaking process, involving the design of very large, complex computer programs. Despite the considerable expenditure of resources involved, completed scientific models cannot easily be distributed and shared with the larger scientific community due to the low-level, idiosyncratic nature of the implemented code. To address this problem, we have initiated a research project aimed at constructing a software tool called the Scientific Modeling Assistant. This tool provides automated assistance to the scientist in developing, using, and sharing software models. We describe the Scientific Modeling Assistant, and also touch on some human-machine interaction issues relevant to building a successful tool of this type.

Keller, Richard M.↗

Construction of an advanced software tool for planetary atmospheric modeling

Scientific model-building can be a time intensive and painstaking process, often involving the development of large complex computer programs. Despite the effort involved, scientific models cannot be distributed easily and shared with other scientists. In general, implemented scientific models are complicated, idiosyncratic, and difficult for anyone but the original scientist/programmer to understand. We propose to construct a scientific modeling software tool that serves as an aid to the scientist in developing, using and sharing models. The proposed tool will include an interactive intelligent graphical interface and a high-level domain-specific modeling language. As a test bed for this research, we propose to develop a software prototype in the domain of planetary atmospheric modeling.

Friedland, Peter↗

System monitoring and diagnosis with qualitative models

A substantial foundation of tools for model-based reasoning with incomplete knowledge was developed: QSIM (a qualitative simulation program) and its extensions for qualitative simulation; Q2, Q3 and their successors for quantitative reasoning on a qualitative framework; and the CC (component-connection) and QPC (Qualitative Process Theory) model compilers for building QSIM QDE (qualitative differential equation) models starting from different ontological assumptions. Other model-compilers for QDE's, e.g., using bond graphs or compartmental models, have been developed elsewhere. These model-building tools will support automatic construction of qualitative models from physical specifications, and further research into selection of appropriate modeling viewpoints. For monitoring and diagnosis, plausible hypotheses are unified against observations to strengthen or refute the predicted behaviors. In MIMIC (Model Integration via Mesh Interpolation Coefficients), multiple hypothesized models of the system are tracked in parallel in order to reduce the 'missing model' problem. Each model begins as a qualitative model, and is unified with a priori quantitative knowledge and with the stream of incoming observational data. When the model/data unification yields a contradiction, the model is refuted. When there is no contradiction, the predictions of the model are progressively strengthened, for use in procedure planning and differential diagnosis. Only under a qualitative level of description can a finite set of models guarantee the complete coverage necessary for this performance. The results of this research are presented in several publications. Abstracts of these published papers are presented along with abtracts of papers representing work that was synergistic with the NASA grant but funded otherwise. These 28 papers include but are not limited to: 'Combined qualitative and numerical simulation with Q3'; 'Comparative analysis and qualitative integral representations'; 'Model-based monitoring of dynamic systems'; 'Numerical behavior envelopes for qualitative models'; 'Higher-order derivative constraints in qualitative simulation'; and 'Non-intersection of trajectories in qualitative phase space: a global constraint for qualitative simulation.'

Kuipers, Benjamin↗

Construction of an advanced software tool for planetary atmospheric modeling

Scientific model-building can be a time intensive and painstaking process, often involving the development of large complex computer programs. Despite the effort involved, scientific models cannot be distributed easily and shared with other scientists. In general, implemented scientific models are complicated, idiosyncratic, and difficult for anyone but the original scientist/programmer to understand. We propose to construct a scientific modeling software tool that serves as an aid to the scientist in developing, using and sharing models. The proposed tool will include an interactive intelligent graphical interface and a high-level domain-specific modeling language. As a testbed for this research, we propose to develop a software prototype in the domain of planetary atmospheric modeling.

Friedland, Peter↗

Past, Present, and Future Capabilities of the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel from an Aeroelasticity Perspective

The NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) has provided a unique capability for aeroelastic testing for forty years. The facility has a rich history of significant contributions to the design of many United States commercial transports, military aircraft, launch vehicles, and spacecraft. The facility has many features that contribute to its uniqueness for aeroelasticity testing, perhaps the most important feature being the use of a heavy gas test medium to achieve higher test densities. Higher test medium densities substantially improve model-building requirements and therefore simplify the fabrication process for building aeroelastically scaled wind tunnel models. Aeroelastic scaling for the heavy gas results in lower model structural frequencies. Lower model frequencies tend to a make aeroelastic testing safer. This paper will describe major developments in the testing capabilities at the TDT throughout its history, the current status of the facility, and planned additions and improvements to its capabilities in the near future.

Cole, Stanley R.↗

Test Activities in the Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel and a Summary of Recent Facility Improvements

The Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) has provided a unique capability for aeroelastic testing for over forty years. The facility has a rich history of significant contributions to the design of many United States commercial transports, military aircraft, launch vehicles, and spacecraft. The facility has many features that contribute to its uniqueness for aeroelasticity testing, perhaps the most important feature being the use of a heavy gas test medium to achieve higher test densities compared to testing in air. Higher test medium densities substantially improve model-building requirements and therefore simplify the fabrication process for building aeroelastically scaled wind tunnel models. This paper describes TDT capabilities that make it particularly suited for aeroelasticity testing. The paper also discusses the nature of recent test activities in the TDT, including summaries of several specific tests. Finally, the paper documents recent facility improvement projects and the continuous statistical quality assessment effort for the TDT.

Cole, Stanley R.↗

Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) Testability Analysis Report

As system designs become more complex, determining the best locations to add sensors and test points for the purpose of testing and monitoring these designs becomes more difficult. Not only must the designer take into consideration all real and potential faults of the system, he or she must also find efficient ways of detecting and isolating those faults. Because sensors and cabling take up valuable space and weight on a system, and given constraints on bandwidth and power, it is even more difficult to add sensors into these complex designs after the design has been completed. As a result, a number of software tools have been developed to assist the system designer in proper placement of these sensors during the system design phase of a project. One of the key functions provided by many of these software programs is a testability analysis of the system essentially an evaluation of how observable the system behavior is using available tests. During the design phase, testability metrics can help guide the designer in improving the inherent testability of the design. This may include adding, removing, or modifying tests; breaking up feedback loops, or changing the system to reduce fault propagation. Given a set of test requirements, the analysis can also help to verify that the system will meet those requirements. Of course, a testability analysis requires that a software model of the physical system is available. For the analysis to be most effective in guiding system design, this model should ideally be constructed in parallel with these efforts. The purpose of this paper is to present the final testability results of the Advanced Diagnostic and Prognostic Testbed (ADAPT) after the system model was completed. The tool chosen to build the model and to perform the testability analysis with is the Testability Engineering and Maintenance System Designer (TEAMS-Designer). The TEAMS toolset is intended to be a solution to span all phases of the system, from design and development through health management and maintenance. TEAMS-Designer is the model-building and testability analysis software in that suite.

Ossenfort, John↗

Watching Without Seeing a Tool to Surveil Astronaut Health Outcomes While Maintaining Astronaut Medical Privacy

BACKGROUND The Privacy Act of 1974 regulates the use a nd disclosure of personally identifiable information by US Federal agencies. The Act applies to biographical, financial, a nd other identity-linked information, a s well a s personal health information (PHI). As such, the use of astronaut PHI is limited to authorized personnel for preapproved uses, with data reporting often limited to aggregated information about groups. These limitations on the use a nd reporting of astronaut PHI complicates surveillance efforts, wherein epidemiologists a t the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)monitor the incidence of targeted health conditions in the astronaut population, or to discover emerging trends of aging and disease. Stratification on one or more covariates –particularly time-period, sex, a nd mission participation –can lead to extremely small datasets such that the reporting of results is potentially attributable to individuals. An additional challenge is the small size of the astronaut population, both in terms of numbers of individuals a s well a s in terms of density of exposure time. Such small datasets yield volatile rate estimates that are difficult to interpret. To a id the epidemiological surveillance efforts, a surveillance tool is required that can (a) satisfy the need for rapid computation of condition-specific incidence and mortality rates; (b) improve the statistical estimates of these estimated rates; and (c) maintain astronaut privacy. Here we describe a nd demonstrate such a tool. METHODS We devised a system that models incidence a nd mortality rates rather than calculating them directly. This ha s the advantage of using all the available data to derive the estimates, lea ding to rates that a re not attributable to any one individual, a nd a re a s numerically stable a s they can be given the extremely limited data. The system models disease endpoints using a Poisson regression model with exposure density (measured in person-years) a s a n offset term. By doing so the model is estimating event counts per person-year, equivalent to modeling the rates directly. It uses a standard (pre-specified)set of covariates; the system does not engage in “model-building” as model parsimony is not the goa l. Instead, it is explicitly recognized that if a covariate is not statistically significant a nd not a confounder then it will likely have very little effect on the estimate of the incidence a nd mortality rates. Users are able to specify the disease endpoint of interest and the covariates over which they would like to stratify. The system then uses the resulting model to compute the estimated rates for the user-chosen configuration of variables as visualizes those either over an age range within a specified time-period, or over time for astronauts with a specified age range. RESULTS The first iteration of the tool computes incidence a nd mortality rates for cardiovascular conditions and cancers. Code ha s been developed to retrieve the appropriate data from the IMPALA analysis platform, compute the models for incidence a nd mortality, a nd then use those models to generate the corresponding rate curves. A companion graphical user interface allows the user to specify the curves and visualize the results. CONCLUSIONS It is important to note that the rapid surveillance tool described here is neither meant to be a definitive assessment of the incidence or mortality of any particular disease or condition in the astronaut population, nor is it meant to be used for research purposes. Rather, it is meant as an early indicator that in-depth investigation may be warranted. By automating a repetitive process and leveraging carefully curated astronaut health outcomes, the tool makes possible a rapid “first look” into known areas of concern, and, if used judiciously, may surface new areas of concern for long-term astronaut health. This work is supported in part by the Translational Research Institute for Space Health (TRISH) through NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AO69A.

R J Reynolds↗

REACTER: A Versatile Tool for Large-Scale Reactive Molecular Dynamics

Accurately describing reactive events over long length and time scales remains a grand challenge of computational materials science. REACTER is a general protocol for modeling chemical reactions using classical force fields, and is implemented in the popular molecular dynamics software LAMMPS. REACTER has a growing user base and has been used as a model-building tool for a variety of materials, including thermoplastics, thermosets, glassy materials and composites. The method has also been applied to accelerated modeling of reversible chemical reactions, such as the formation of electrochemical components for batteries. Recently, the REACTER protocol has received some major upgrades to enhance its ability to predict when reactions occur and to make it easier to use. Force field parameters can now be automatically assigned to newly created bonds, angles and other interactions. Advanced reaction constraints have also been added, including an Arrhenius constraint to enforce an effective activation energy, a root-mean-square-deviation option for complex geometrical constraints, and a constraint based on the total potential energy of the atoms involved in a reactive site. This potential energy constraint allows for the accurate reproduction of DFT-based tight-binding (DFTB3) predicted bond dissociation curves for mechanically induced bond breaking.

polymer simulations, molecular dynamics↗

Critical Progressive Damage Analysis Model Features for Low-Velocity Impact on Thermoset and Thermoplastic Panels

A previous verification and validation framework evaluated the ability of various progressive damage analysis (PDA) tools to predict the mechanical response and damage state in post-buckled stiffened aerospace structures composed of fiber-reinforced thermoset composite materials. Herein, the ability of PDA tools to predict damage in thermoplastic composite materials subject to low-velocity impact (LVI) loading has been assessed. LVI tests and analyses have been conducted for similar panels, comprising thermoset or thermoplastic composite materials. Preliminary test/analysis correlations revealed that using the same combination of PDA model features and finite element model-building guidelines for the thermoset and thermoplastic LVI specimens resulted in underprediction of matrix crack lengths and delaminated area in the thermoplastic analyses despite yielding good correlations for the thermoset specimens. In this paper, the quality of the test/analysis correlations for analyses of thermoplastic LVI specimens performed with different combinations of PDA model features using the NASA CompDam material model are presented. Model features that were assessed in terms of effect on the quality of the test/analysis correlation include the representation of damageable interfaces, residual thermal stresses, and fiber damage.

Frank Leone↗

Critical Progressive Damage Analysis Model Features for Low-Velocity Impact on Thermoset and Thermoplastic Panels

A previous verification and validation framework evaluated the ability of various progressive damage analysis (PDA) tools to predict the mechanical response and damage state in post-buckled stiffened aerospace structures composed of fiber-reinforced thermoset composite materials. Herein, the ability of PDA tools to predict damage in thermoplastic composite materials subject to low-velocity impact (LVI) loading has been assessed. LVI tests and analyses have been conducted for similar panels, comprising thermoset or thermoplastic composite materials. Preliminary test/analysis correlations revealed that using the same combination of PDA model features and finite element model-building guidelines for the thermoset and thermoplastic LVI specimens resulted in underprediction of matrix crack lengths and delaminated area in the thermoplastic analyses despite yielding good correlations for the thermoset specimens. In this paper, the quality of the test/analysis correlations for analyses of thermoplastic LVI specimens performed with different combinations of PDA model features using the NASA CompDam material model are presented. Model features that were assessed in terms of effect on the quality of the test/analysis correlation include the representation of damageable interfaces, residual thermal stresses, and fiber damage.

Frank Leone↗