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An experimental methodology for a fuzzy set preference model

A flexible fuzzy set preference model first requires approximate methodologies for implementation. Fuzzy sets must be defined for each individual consumer using computer software, requiring a minimum of time and expertise on the part of the consumer. The amount of information needed in defining sets must also be established. The model itself must adapt fully to the subject's choice of attributes (vague or precise), attribute levels, and importance weights. The resulting individual-level model should be fully adapted to each consumer. The methodologies needed to develop this model will be equally useful in a new generation of intelligent systems which interact with ordinary consumers, controlling electronic devices through fuzzy expert systems or making recommendations based on a variety of inputs. The power of personal computers and their acceptance by consumers has yet to be fully utilized to create interactive knowledge systems that fully adapt their function to the user. Understanding individual consumer preferences is critical to the design of new products and the estimation of demand (market share) for existing products, which in turn is an input to management systems concerned with production and distribution. The question of what to make, for whom to make it and how much to make requires an understanding of the customer's preferences and the trade-offs that exist between alternatives. Conjoint analysis is a widely used methodology which de-composes an overall preference for an object into a combination of preferences for its constituent parts (attributes such as taste and price), which are combined using an appropriate combination function. Preferences are often expressed using linguistic terms which cannot be represented in conjoint models. Current models are also not implemented an individual level, making it difficult to reach meaningful conclusions about the cause of an individual's behavior from an aggregate model. The combination of complex aggregate models and vague linguistic preferences has greatly limited the usefulness and predictive validity of existing preference models. A fuzzy set preference model that uses linguistic variables and a fully interactive implementation should be able to simultaneously address these issues and substantially improve the accuracy of demand estimates. The parallel implementation of crisp and fuzzy conjoint models using identical data not only validates the fuzzy set model but also provides an opportunity to assess the impact of fuzzy set definitions and individual attribute choices implemented in the interactive methodology developed in this research. The generalized experimental tools needed for conjoint models can also be applied to many other types of intelligent systems.

Turksen, I. B.↗

Soybean canopy reflectance modeling data sets

Numerous mathematical models of the interaction of radiation with vegetation canopies have been developed over the last two decades. However, data with which to exercise and validate these models are scarce. During three days in the summer of 1980, experiments are conducted with the objective of gaining insight about the effects of solar illumination and view angles on soybean canopy reflectance. In concert with these experiment, extensive measurements of the soybean canopies are obtained. This document is a compilation of the bidirectional reflectance factors, agronomic, characteristics, canopy geometry, and leaf, stem, and pod optical properties of the soybean canopies. These data sets should be suitable for use with most vegetation canopy reflectance models.

Ranson, K. J.↗

Steady-state fuel performance analyses for the preliminary fuel concept of general atomics fast modular reactor

Here this manuscript presents the fuel performance analysis results of the General Atomics Fast Modular Reactor (FMR) based on an axi-symmetric (2D-RZ) geometry. Three fuel performance model sets that fit the FMR fuel specifications best, i.e., a BISON baseline model set, a BISON diffusion enhancement model set, and a BISON-FASTGRASS model set, were identified and evaluated against a series of relevant experimental cases featuring high burnup and low irradiation temperature conditions. The three BISON-based model sets were then utilized to conduct a comprehensive fuel performance analysis of the FMR fuel under normal operation including the shutdown/restarting periods for refueling. The evaluation of the fuel performance parameters, represented by temperature, internal pressure, stress, and strain, shows that the FMR fuel maintains its thermal and mechanical integrity during normal operation. Technology gaps and limitations are also discussed to guide future efforts for extending the performance analysis to transient scenarios as well as improving the fuel performance evaluation through experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Parameterization of Model Validating Sets for Uncertainty Bound Optimizations

Given measurement data, a nominal model and a linear fractional transformation uncertainty structure with an allowance on unknown but bounded exogenous disturbances, easily computable tests for the existence of a model validating uncertainty set are given. Under mild conditions, these tests are necessary and sufficient for the case of complex, nonrepeated, block-diagonal structure. For the more general case which includes repeated and/or real scalar uncertainties, the tests are only necessary but become sufficient if a collinearity condition is also satisfied. With the satisfaction of these tests, it is shown that a parameterization of all model validating sets of plant models is possible. The new parameterization is used as a basis for a systematic way to construct or perform uncertainty tradeoff with model validating uncertainty sets which have specific linear fractional transformation structure for use in robust control design and analysis. An illustrative example which includes a comparison of candidate model validating sets is given.

Lim, K. B.↗

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Masked Particle Modeling on Sets: Towards Self-Supervised High Energy Physics Foundation Models

Abstract We propose masked particle modeling (MPM) as a self-supervised method for learning generic, transferable, and reusable representations on unordered sets of inputs for use in high energy physics (HEP) scientific data. This work provides a novel scheme to perform masked modeling based pre-training to learn permutation invariant functions on sets. More generally, this work provides a step towards building large foundation models for HEP that can be generically pre-trained with self-supervised learning and later fine-tuned for a variety of down-stream tasks. In MPM, particles in a set are masked and the training objective is to recover their identity, as defined by a discretized token representation of a pre-trained vector quantized variational autoencoder. We study the efficacy of the method in samples of high energy jets at collider physics experiments, including studies on the impact of discretization, permutation invariance, and ordering. We also study the fine-tuning capability of the model, showing that it can be adapted to tasks such as supervised and weakly supervised jet classification, and that the model can transfer efficiently with small fine-tuning data sets to new classes and new data domains.

Heinrich, Lukas (ORCID:0000000240487584)↗

Parameterization of Model Validating Sets for Uncertainty Bound Optimizations

Given experimental data and a priori assumptions on nominal model and a linear fractional transformation uncertainty structure, feasible conditions for model validation is given. All unknown but bounded exogenous inputs are assumed to occur at the plant outputs. With the satisfaction of the feasible conditions for model validation, it is shown that a parameterization of all model validating sets of plant models is possible. The new parameterization can be used as a basis for the development of a systematic way to construct model validating uncertainty models which have specific linear fractional transformation structure for use in robust control design and analysis. The proposed feasible condition (existence) test and the parameterization is computationally attractive as compared to similar tests currently available.

Lim, K. B.↗

Calculations of the limb radiance of Venus in the 600 to 700 per cm region and their application to spacecraft navigation.

Limb radiance profiles for Venus in the 600 to 700 per cm spectral band are derived for two sets of model atmospheres. The radiance computations make use of a strong line transmission model. Both an extreme variability atmospheric model set and a normal variability set are derived and discussed, as are the effects of clouds and surface pressure uncertainties. A horizon locator concept based on the derived radiance profiles is presented, through its implementation in a conceptual systems design. The locator concept developed shows promise of locating the Venus limb to better than 2 km accuracy at the horizon, or 0.05 deg for a 500-km orbit.

Ohring, G.↗

Modeling of Protection in Dynamic Simulation Using Generic Relay Models and Settings

This paper shows how generic protection relay models available in planning tools can be augmented with settings that are based on NERC standards or best engineering practice. Selected generic relay models in Siemens PSS®E have been used in dynamic simulations in the proposed approach. Undervoltage, overvoltage, underfrequency, and overfrequency relays have been modeled for each generating unit. Distance-relay protection was modeled for transmission system protection. Two types of load-shedding schemes were modeled: underfrequency (frequency-responsive non-firm load shedding) and underfrequency and undervoltage firm load shedding. Several case studies are given to show the impact of protection devices on dynamic simulations. This is useful for simulating cascading outages.

cascading failures↗

A fuzzy set preference model for market share analysis

Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing, and market segmentation. The success of new products depends on accurate market share prediction and design decisions based on consumer preferences. The vague linguistic nature of consumer preferences and product attributes, combined with the substantial differences between individuals, creates a formidable challenge to marketing models. The most widely used methodology is conjoint analysis. Conjoint models, as currently implemented, represent linguistic preferences as ratio or interval-scaled numbers, use only numeric product attributes, and require aggregation of individuals for estimation purposes. It is not surprising that these models are costly to implement, are inflexible, and have a predictive validity that is not substantially better than chance. This affects the accuracy of market share estimates. A fuzzy set preference model can easily represent linguistic variables either in consumer preferences or product attributes with minimal measurement requirements (ordinal scales), while still estimating overall preferences suitable for market share prediction. This approach results in flexible individual-level conjoint models which can provide more accurate market share estimates from a smaller number of more meaningful consumer ratings. Fuzzy sets can be incorporated within existing preference model structures, such as a linear combination, using the techniques developed for conjoint analysis and market share estimation. The purpose of this article is to develop and fully test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation), and how much to make (market share prediction).

Turksen, I. B.↗

A Report on the Validation of Beryllium Strength Models

This report discusses work on validating beryllium strength models with flyer plate and Taylor rod experimental data. Strength models are calibrated with Hopkinson bar and quasi-static data. The Hopkinson bar data for beryllium provides strain rates up to about 4000 per second. A limitation of the Hopkinson bar data for beryllium is that it only provides information on strain up to about 0.15. The lack of high strain data at high strain rates makes it difficult to distinguish between various strength model settings. The PTW model has been calibrated many different times over the last 12 years. The lack of high strain data for high strain rates has resulted in these calibrated PTW models for beryllium exhibiting significantly different behavior when extrapolated to high strain. For beryllium, the α parameter of PTW has recently been calibrated to high precision shear modulus data. In the past the α value for beryllium was set based on expert judgment. The new α value for beryllium was used in a calibration of the beryllium PTW model by Sky Sjue. The calibration by Sjue used EOS table information to model the temperature dependence of the heat capacity. Also, the calibration by Sjue used EOS table information to model the density changes of the beryllium sample during the Hopkinson bar and quasi-static experiments. In this paper, the calibrated PTW model by Sjue is compared against experimental data and other strength models. The other strength models being considered are a PTW model calibrated by Shuh- Rong Chen and a Steinberg-Guinan type model by John Pedicini. The three strength models are used in a comparison against flyer plate and Taylor rod data. The results show that the Chen PTW model provides better agreement to this data. The Chen PTW model settings have been previously adjusted to provide a better fit to flyer plate data, whereas the Sjue PTW model has not been changed based on flyer plate data. However, the Sjue model provides a reasonable fit to flyer plate and Taylor rod data, and also gives a better match to recently analyzed Z-machine data which has a strain of about 0.35 and a strain rate of 3e5 s -1 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

An interactive environment for the analysis of large Earth observation and model data sets

We propose to develop an interactive environment for the analysis of large Earth science observation and model data sets. We will use a standard scientific data storage format and a large capacity (greater than 20 GB) optical disk system for data management; develop libraries for coordinate transformation and regridding of data sets; modify the NCSA X Image and X Data Slice software for typical Earth observation data sets by including map transformations and missing data handling; develop analysis tools for common mathematical and statistical operations; integrate the components described above into a system for the analysis and comparison of observations and model results; and distribute software and documentation to the scientific community.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗

An interactive environment for the analysis of large Earth observation and model data sets

We propose to develop an interactive environment for the analysis of large Earth science observation and model data sets. We will use a standard scientific data storage format and a large capacity (greater than 20 GB) optical disk system for data management; develop libraries for coordinate transformation and regridding of data sets; modify the NCSA X Image and X DataSlice software for typical Earth observation data sets by including map transformations and missing data handling; develop analysis tools for common mathematical and statistical operations; integrate the components described above into a system for the analysis and comparison of observations and model results; and distribute software and documentation to the scientific community.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗

An interactive environment for the analysis of large Earth observation and model data sets

Envision is an interactive environment that provides researchers in the earth sciences convenient ways to manage, browse, and visualize large observed or model data sets. Its main features are support for the netCDF and HDF file formats, an easy to use X/Motif user interface, a client-server configuration, and portability to many UNIX workstations. The Envision package also provides new ways to view and change metadata in a set of data files. It permits a scientist to conveniently and efficiently manage large data sets consisting of many data files. It also provides links to popular visualization tools so that data can be quickly browsed. Envision is a public domain package, freely available to the scientific community. Envision software (binaries and source code) and documentation can be obtained from either of these servers: ftp://vista.atmos.uiuc.edu/pub/envision/ and ftp://csrp.tamu.edu/pub/envision/. Detailed descriptions of Envision capabilities and operations can be found in the User's Guide and Reference Manuals distributed with Envision software.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗

A hereditary integral, transient network approach to modeling permanent set and viscoelastic response in polymers

An efficient numerical framework is presented for modeling viscoelasticity and permanent set of polymers. It is based on the hereditary integral form of transient network theory, in which polymer chains belong to distinct networks each with different natural equilibrium states. Chains continually detach from previously formed networks and reattach to new networks in a state of zero stress. The free energy of these networks is given in terms of the deformation gradient relative to the configuration at which the network was born . A decomposition of the kernel for various free energies allows for a recurrence relationship to be established, bypassing the need to integrate over all time history. The technique is established for both highly compressible and nearly incompressible materials through the use of neo-Hookean, Blatz–Ko, Yeoh, and Ogden-Hill material models. Multiple examples are presented showing the ability to handle rate-dependent response and residual strains under complex loading histories.

Finite element method↗

ROCker: accurate detection and quantification of target genes in short-read metagenomic data sets by modeling sliding-window bitscores

Functional annotation of metagenomic and metatranscriptomic data sets relies on similarity searches based on e-value thresholds resulting in an unknown number of false positive and negative matches. To overcome these limitations, we introduce ROCker, aimed at identifying position-specific, most-discriminant thresholds in sliding windows along the sequence of a target protein, accounting for non-discriminative domains shared by unrelated proteins. ROCker employs the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to minimize false discovery rate (FDR) and calculate the best thresholds based on how simulated shotgun metagenomic reads of known composition map onto well-curated reference protein sequences and thus, differs from HMM profiles and related methods. We showcase ROCker using ammonia monooxygenase (amoA) and nitrous oxide reductase (nosZ) genes, mediating oxidation of ammonia and the reduction of the potent greenhouse gas, N 2 O, to inert N 2 , respectively. ROCker typically showed 60-fold lower FDR when compared to the common practice of using fixed e-values. Previously uncounted ‘atypical’ nosZ genes were found to be two times more abundant, on average, than their typical counterparts in most soil metagenomes and the abundance of bacterial amoA was quantified against the highly-related particulate methane monooxygenase (pmoA). Therefore, ROCker can reliably detect and quantify target genes in short-read metagenomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Computational Fluid Dynamics Simulation of Gasoline Compression Ignition

Gasoline compression ignition (GCI) is a low temperature combustion (LTC) concept that has been gaining increasing interest over the recent years owing to its potential to achieve diesel-like thermal efficiencies with significantly reduced engine-out nitrogen oxides (NOx) and soot emissions compared to diesel engines. In this work, closed-cycle computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are performed of this combustion mode using a sector mesh in an effort to understand effects of model settings on simulation results. One goal of this work is to provide recommendations for grid resolution, combustion model, chemical kinetic mechanism, and turbulence model to accurately capture experimental combustion characteristics. Grid resolutions ranging from 0.7 mm to 0.1 mm minimum cell sizes were evaluated in conjunction with both Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) and Large Eddy Simulation (LES) based turbulence models. Solution of chemical kinetics using the multi-zone approach is evaluated against the detailed approach of solving chemistry in every cell. The relatively small primary reference fuel (PRF) mechanism (48 species) used in this study is also evaluated against a larger 312-species gasoline mechanism. Based on these studies the following model settings are chosen keeping in mind both accuracy and computation costs – 0.175 mm minimum cell size grid, RANS turbulence model, 48-species PRF mechanism, and multi-zone chemistry solution with bin limits of 5 K in temperature and 0.05 in equivalence ratio. With these settings, the performance of the CFD model is evaluated against experimental results corresponding to a low load start of injection (SOI) timing sweep. The model is then exercised to investigate the effect of SOI on combustion phasing with constant intake valve closing (IVC) conditions and fueling over a range of SOI timings to isolate the impact of SOI on charge preparation and ignition. Simulation results indicate that there is an optimum SOI timing, in this case -30?aTDC (after top dead center), which results in the most stable combustion. Advancing injection with respect to this point leads to significant fuel mass burning in the colder squish region, leading to retarded phasing and ultimately misfire for SOI timings earlier than -42?aTDC. On the other hand, retarding injection beyond this optimum timing results in reduced residence time available for gasoline ignition kinetics, and also leads to retarded phasing, with misfire at SOI timings later than -15?aTDC.

Energy conversion↗

The Solar Neighborhood. XLVII. Comparing M-dwarf Models with Hubble Space Telescope Dynamical Masses and Spectroscopy

We use HST/STIS optical spectroscopy of 10 M dwarfs in five closely separated binary systems to test models of M-dwarf structure and evolution. Individual dynamical masses ranging from 0.083 to 0.405 M {sub ⊙} for all stars are known from previous work. We first derive temperature, radius, luminosity, surface gravity, and metallicity by fitting the BT-Settl atmospheric models. We verify that our methodology agrees with empirical results from long-baseline optical interferometry for stars of similar spectral types. We then test whether or not evolutionary models can predict those quantities given the stars’ known dynamical masses and the conditions of coevality and equal metallicity within each binary system. We apply this test to five different evolutionary model sets: the Dartmouth models, the MESA/MIST models, the models of Baraffe et al., the PARSEC models, and the YaPSI models. We find marginal agreement between evolutionary model predictions and observations, with few cases where the models respect the condition of coevality in a self-consistent manner. We discuss the pros and cons of each family of models and compare their predictive power.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗