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NASA NTRS2015

Wind Magnetic Clouds for 2010-2012: Model Parameter Fittings, Associated Shock Waves, and Comparisons to Earlier Periods

We fitted the parameters of magnetic clouds (MCs) as identified in the Wind spacecraft data from early 2010 to the end of 2012 using the model of Lepping, Jones, and Burlaga (J. Geophys. Res. 95, 1195, 1990). The interval contains 48 MCs and 39 magnetic cloud-like (MCL) events. This work is a continuation of MC model fittings of the earlier Wind sets, including those in a recent publication, which covers 2007 to 2009. This period (2010 - 2012) mainly covers the maximum portion of Solar Cycle 24. Between the previous and current interval, we document 5.7 years of MCs observations. For this interval, the occurrence frequency of MCs markedly increased in the last third of the time. In addition, over approximately the last six years, the MC type (i.e. the profile of the magnetic-field direction within an MC, such as North-to-South, South-to-North, all South) dramatically evolved to mainly North-to-South types when compared to earlier years. Furthermore, this evolution of MC type is consistent with global solar magnetic-field changes predicted by Bothmer and Rust (Coronal Mass Ejections, 139, 1997). Model fit parameters for the MCs are listed for 2010 - 2012. For the 5.7 year interval, the observed MCs are found to be slower, weaker in estimated axial magnetic-field intensity, and shorter in duration than those of the earlier 12.3 years, yielding much lower axial magnetic-field fluxes. For about the first half of this 5.7 year period, i.e. up to the end of 2009, there were very few associated MC-driven shock waves (distinctly fewer than the long-term average of about 50 % of MCs). But since 2010, such driven shocks have increased markedly, reflecting similar statistics as the long-term averages. We estimate that 56 % of the total observed MCs have upstream shocks when the full interval of 1995 - 2012 is considered. However, only 28 % of the total number of MCLs have driven shocks over the same period. Some interplanetary shocks during the 2010 - 2012 interval are seen to apparently occur without an obvious MC-driver, probably indicating an encounter with a distant flank of a MC-driven shock. Some of these may be driven by a different kind of structure, however.

Magnetic clouds↗

NASA NTRS2022

Solar Temperature Variations Computed from SORCE SIM Irradiances Observed During 2003-2020

NASA’s Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) instrument produced about 17 years of daily average Spectral Solar Irradiance ( SSI ) data for wavelengths 240 nm – 2416 nm. We choose a day of minimal solar activity, 2008-08-24, during the 2008 − 2009 minimum between cycles 23 and 24, and compute the brightness temperature (𝑇 o ) from that day’s solar spectral irradiance (𝑆𝑆𝐼 o ). We consider small variations of T and SSI about these reference values, and derive linear and quadratic analytic approximations by Taylor expansion about the reference day values. To determine approximation accuracy, we compare to exact brightness temperatures T computed from the Planck spectrum, by solving analytically for T , or equivalent root-finding in Wolfram Mathematica. We find that the linear analytic approximation overestimates, while the quadratic underestimates the exact result. This motivates search for statistical “fit” models “in between” the two analytic models, with minimum root-mean-square-error RMSE. We make this search using open-source statistical R software, determine coefficients for linear and quadratic fit models, and compare statistical with analytic RMSE’s. When only linear analytic and fit models are compared, the fit model is superior at ultraviolet, visible, and near infrared wavelengths. This again holds true when comparing only quadratic models. Quadratic is superior to linear for both analytic and statistical models, and statistical fits give smallest RMSE’s. Lastly, we use linear analytic and fit models to find an interpolating function in wavelength, useful in case the SIM results need adjustment to another choices of wavelengths, to compare or extend to any other instrument.

SORCE↗

NASA NTRS1982

Relativistic precessing jets in quasars and radio galaxies - Models to fit high resolution data

The formulation of generalized models tracing the geometry and intensity of the synchrotron emission from precessing, twin, relativistic jets as projected on the plane of the sky is presented. It is shown that neither the shape of the image nor its relative intensities are altered by including the effects of a cosmological redshift and a relative velocity between the source and observer. The models are fitted to the available data for several quasars and radio galaxies and demonstrate the plausibility of the phenomenon. Probable selection effects are considered and diagnostics given for recognizing objects showing this behavior. In the radio galaxies considered, velocities up to about 0.2c and precession periods of 1,000,000 yr are deduced. In the QSOs investigated, velocities of 0.7c and greater are found and periods of order 10,000 yr. In some cases precession cone angles increase with time. Consequences in terms of lifetimes of QSO behavior and binary supermassive objects are discussed.

Gower, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Diffuse galactic continuum emission measured by COMPTEL and the cosmic-ray electron spectrum

Diffuse galactic continuum gamma-ray emission in the 0.75-30 MeV range from the inner Galaxy has been studied using data from COMPTEL on the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory. Observations of the inner Galaxy from the Sky Survey have been used. The imaging properties of COMPTEL enable spatial analysis of the gamma-ray distribution using model fitting. A model based on atomic and molecular gas distributions in the Galaxy has been used to derive the emissivity spectrum of the gamma-ray emission and this spectrum is compared with theoretical estimates of bremsstrahlung emission from cosmic-ray electrons.

Strong, A. W.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Herschel Extreme Lensing Line Observations: Dynamics of Two Strongly Lensed Star-Forming Galaxies near Redshift z=2*

We report on two regularly rotating galaxies at redshift z approx. = 2, using high-resolution spectra of the bright [C microns] 158 micrometers emission line from the HIFI instrument on the Herschel Space Observatory. Both SDSS090122.37+181432.3 ("S0901") and SDSSJ120602.09+514229.5 ("the Clone") are strongly lensed and show the double-horned line profile that is typical of rotating gas disks. Using a parametric disk model to fit the emission line profiles, we find that S0901 has a rotation speed of v sin(i) approx. = 120 +/- 7 kms(sup −1) and a gas velocity dispersion of (standard deviation)g < 23 km s(sup −1) (1(standard deviation)). The best-fitting model for the Clone is a rotationally supported disk having v sin(i) approx. = 79 +/- 11 km s(sup −1) and (standard deviation)g 4 kms(sup −1) (1(standard deviation)). However, the Clone is also consistent with a family of dispersion-dominated models having (standard deviation)g = 92 +/- 20 km s(sup −1). Our results showcase the potential of the [C microns] line as a kinematic probe of high-redshift galaxy dynamics: [C microns] is bright, accessible to heterodyne receivers with exquisite velocity resolution, and traces dense star-forming interstellar gas. Future [C microns] line observations with ALMA would offer the further advantage of spatial resolution, allowing a clearer separation between rotation and velocity dispersion.

LENSING↗

NASA NTRS1999

Some Peculiar Properties of Magnetic Clouds as Observed by the WIND Spacecraft

We aimed at understanding the common characteristics of magnetic clouds, relevant to solar-interplanetary connections, but exceptional ones were noted and are stressed here through a short compendium. The study is based on analyses of 28 good or better events (Out of 33 candidates) as identified in WIND magnetic field and plasma data. These cloud intervals are provided by WIND-MFI's Website under the URL (http://lepmfi.gsfc.nasa.gov/mfi/mag_cloud_publ.html#table). The period covered is from early 1995 to November 1998. A force free, cylindrically symmetric, magnetic field model has been applied to the field data in usually 1-hour averaged form for the cloud analyses. Some of the findings are: (1) one small duration event turned out to have an approximately normal size which was due to a distant almost "skimming" passage by the spacecraft; (2) One truly small event was observed, where 10 min averages had to be used in the model fitting; it had an excellent model fit and the usual properties of a magnetic cloud, except it possessed a small axial magnetic flux; (3) One cloud ha a dual axial-field-polarity, in the sense that the "core" had one polarity and the annular region around it had an opposite polarity. This event also satisfied the model and with a ve3ry good chi-squared value. Some others show a hint of this dual polarity; (4) The temporal distribution of occurrence clouds over the 4 years show a dip in 1996; (5) About 50 % of the clouds had upstream shocks; any others had upstream pressure pulses; (6) The overall average speed (390 km/s) of the best 28 events is less than the normally quoted for the average solar wind speed (420 km/s) The average of central cloud speed to the upstream solar wind speed was not much greater than one (1.08), even though many of these clouds were drivers of interplanetary shocks. Cloud expansion is partly the reason for the existence of upstream shocks; (7) The cloud axes often (about 50 % of the time) revealed reasonable attitudes with respect to the interpreted solar source, from simple geometry, but many bore no relationship, suggesting that their observations at 1 AU were probably those of the legs of the global cloud often having near-radial axes; (8) many clouds appear to have magnetic holes at or their their boundaries.

Berdichevsky, D.↗

NASA NTRS2006

X-ray and Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect Measurements of the Gas Mass Fraction in Galaxy Clusters

We present gas mass fractions of 38 massive galaxy clusters spanning redshifts from 0.14 to 0.89, derived from Chandra X-ray data and OVRO/BIMA interferometric Sunyaev-Zel' dovich Effect (SZE) measurements. We use three models for the gas distribution: (1) an isothermal Beta-model fit jointly to the X-ray data at radii beyond 100 kpc and to all of the SZE data, (2) a nonisothermal double Beta-model fit jointly to all of the X-ray and SZE data, and (3) an isothermal Beta-model fit only to the SZE spatial data. We show that the simple isothermal model well characterizes the intracluster medium (ICM) outside of the cluster core, and provides consistently good fits to clusters spanning a wide range of morphological properties. The agreement in the results shows that the core can be satisfactorily accounted for by either excluding the core in fits to the X-ray data (the 100 kpc-cut model) or modeling the intracluster gas with a non-isothermal double Beta-model. We find that the SZE is largely insensitive to structure in the core.

LaRoque, Samuel J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Validation of a Best-Fit Pharmacokinetic Model for Scopolamine Disposition after Intranasal Administration

An intranasal gel formulation of scopolamine (INSCOP) was developed for the treatment of Motion Sickness. Bioavailability and pharmacokinetics (PK) were determined per Investigative New Drug (IND) evaluation guidance by the Food and Drug Administration. Earlier, we reported the development of a PK model that can predict the relationship between plasma, saliva and urinary scopolamine (SCOP) concentrations using data collected from an IND clinical trial with INSCOP. This data analysis project is designed to validate the reported best fit PK model for SCOP by comparing observed and model predicted SCOP concentration‐time profiles after administration of INSCOP.

Wu, L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Algorithm for the Fitting of Planet Models to Kepler Light Curves

We describe an algorithm which fits model planetary system parameters to light curves from Kepler Mission target stars. The algorithm begins by producing an initial model of the system which is used to seed the fit,with particular emphasis on obtaining good transit timing parameters. An attempt is then made to determine whether the observed transits are more likely due to a planet or an eclipsing binary. In the event that the transits are consistent with a transiting planet, an iterative fitting process is initiated: a wavelet-based whitening filter is used to eliminate stellar variations on timescales long compared to a transit; a robust nonlinear fitter operating on the whitened light curve produces a new model of the system; and the procedure iterates until convergence upon a self-consistent whitening filter and planet model. The fitted transits are removed from the light curve anda search for additional planet candidates is performed upon the residual light curve. The fitted models are used in additional tests which identify false positive planet detections: multiple planet candidates with near-identical fitted periods are far more likely to be an eclipsing binary, for example, while target stars in which the model lightcurve is correlated with the star centroid position may indicate a background eclipsing binary, and subtraction of all model planet candidates yields a light curve of pure noise and stellar variability, which can be used to study the probability that the planet candidates result from statistical fluctuations in the data.

Exoplanet↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quantifying radiation quality for space relevant radiation types: Fitting excess risk models to outbred mice data

Accurately quantifying the differences in radiation quality between space and terrestrial environments is important for predicting health risks for astronauts.Recently, Edmundson et al. 2020[1] provided valuable new results from out-bred mice linking tumor induction and genetic background aer exposure to low and high-LET radiation. The goal of the current study is to more rigorously estimate a relative biological effectiveness (RBE) factor by leveraging the solid tumor data from Edmundson et al. 2020. Excess relative risk (ERR) models and excess absolute risk (EAR) models were fit using Poisson regression similar to the models that the Radiation Effects Research Foundation uses to fit atomic bomb survivor data. Linear ERR and EAR slopes were simulated usingBayesian analyses, and RBE values were calculated from the ratio of the heavy ion linear slope to the gamma linear slope using the full posterior distribution.

Lori J. Chappell↗

NASA NTRS1979

An aperture synthesis study of Saturn and its rings at 3.71-cm wavelength

Aperture synthesis maps of Saturn and its ring system are presented. The maps are free from most of the assumptions about the brightness structure of Saturn that were used in a previous model-fitting analysis. Generally, the maps confirm the model-fitting results, with the exception that the brightness temperature of the planet determined by the models is greater than it needs to be in order to match the contours in the map. This discrepancy is attributed to random errors in the phase of the visibility function.

Schloerb, F. P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Fitting dynamic models to the Geosat sea level observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean. I - A free wave model

Free, equatorially trapped sinusoidal wave solutions to a linear model on an equatorial beta plane are used to fit the Geosat altimetric sea level observations in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Kalman filter technique is used to estimate the wave amplitude and phase from the data. The estimation is performed at each time step by combining the model forecast with the observation in an optimal fashion utilizing the respective error covariances. The model error covariance is determined such that the performance of the model forecast is optimized. It is found that the dominant observed features can be described qualitatively by basin-scale Kelvin waves and the first meridional-mode Rossby waves. Quantitatively, however, only 23 percent of the signal variance can be accounted for by this simple model.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗

NASA NTRS1978

Structure and evolution of solar radio bursts at 26.4 MHz

Results are reported for multiple-baseline interferometric measurements of type II, III, IV, and V solar radio bursts at 26.4 MHz. Thirty-two burst events in a two-month period are analyzed by fitting a double-Gaussian two-dimensional source-brightness distribution model to the observed interferometer visibility function. The multibaseline time-sharing interferometer system employed is described in detail, the model-fitting technique is outlined, and values of the model-fit parameters are given for all 32 cases, which include two type II bursts, three type IV bursts, 17 type III bursts, seven type V bursts, and three bursts of type III, V pairs. The temporal evolution of source structure, size, and motion is examined for the different burst types. The core-halo source structure for the type III bursts is interpreted in comparison to two models, one of which assumes scattering and refraction of a point source while the other postulates primarily refraction from an ensemble of sources distributed over a wide sector in solar longitude.

Chen, H. S.-L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of plate and asthenospheric flow models for the thermal evolution of oceanic lithosphere

Although seafloor depth and heat flow for young oceanic lithosphere can be descibed by modeling the lithosphere as the boundary layer of a cooling halfspace, a long standing question has been why data at older ages deviate from those expected for a halfspace. Two classes of models have been proposed for these deviations. In one, heat added from below 'flattens' depth and heat flow. In the other, asthenospheric flow beneath the lithosphere perturbs the depths. We compare recent versions of the model classes: the GDH1 thin-lithosphere plate model (Stein and Stein, 1992) and an asthenospehric flow model (Phipps Morgan and Smith, 1992). The plate model fits heat flow data better than the flow model for all cases considered, and topographic data in all but one case. The flow model significantly overpredicts depths for the North Atlantic, because the assumed asthenospheric flow in the plate motion direction would yield deepening for old ages rather than the observed flattening. Overall, the GDH1 global average model does better than this flow model, whose parameters were fit to specific plates. Moreover, the plate models fit to specific plates do better than the flow model. Plate models thus appear more useful than this flow model, suggesting that deviations from a cooling halfspace are largely thermal in origin.

Stein, Carol A.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Curve fitting and modeling with splines using statistical variable selection techniques

The successful application of statistical variable selection techniques to fit splines is demonstrated. Major emphasis is given to knot selection, but order determination is also discussed. Two FORTRAN backward elimination programs, using the B-spline basis, were developed. The program for knot elimination is compared in detail with two other spline-fitting methods and several statistical software packages. An example is also given for the two-variable case using a tensor product basis, with a theoretical discussion of the difficulties of their use.

Smith, P. L.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Observations of interstellar helium with a gas absorption cell - Implications for the structure of the local interstellar medium

A photometer sensitive at the 584 A line of He 1, incorporating a helium gas resonance absorption cell, was flown on the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project in July 1975. The instrument observed much of the night-time sky, and returned 42 min of usable data. The data were analyzed by fitting to a model of resonant scattering of solar 584 A flux from nearby interstellar helium. Good model fits were obtained for an interstellar gas bulk velocity vector pointing toward alpha = 72 deg, delta = +15 deg, with speed 20 km/s, with interstellar medium temperatures from 5000 to 20,000 K and with neutral interstellar helium density (8.9 plus or minus 10 to the -3rd/cu cm). In the context of theoretical studies of the interstellar medium by McKee and Ostriker (1977), the results may indicate that the sun lies in the warm, partially ionized periphery of a cold interstellar cloud, surrounded by a high-temperature gas heated by old supernova remnants.

Freeman, J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Limits on the radius and a possible atmosphere of Charon from its 1980 stellar occultation

Walker's (1980) stellar occultation data for Charon are presently fit by a model which encompasses the possibility of differential refraction by an atmosphere, followed by a sudden occultation behind Charon's limb. The 601.5-km Charon radius lower limit thus obtained may serve as a constraint in models of the mutual event data; while the model fits considered support a Charonian atmosphere of indeterminate composition, time resolution is insufficient for certainty and the data may be interpretable as indications of either a slight extinction near Charon or an entirely unidentified and unassociated effect.

Elliot, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Producing the universal spectrum of cosmological gamma-ray bursts with the Klein-Nishina cross section

A power-law spectrum attenuated through Compton scattering by an optically thick medium produces spectra that have a characteristic energy of several hundred keV. Add a redshift, and one finds that this model can qualitatively reproduce the color-color diagrams found for individual gamma-ray bursts. This model is easily tested through model fits to burst spectra and through comparisons of the parameters derived from model fits to the limits on parameters derived from the burst log N - log P(sub max) curve. The heavy attenuation makes the amount of energy released in the burst approximately equal to 10(exp 3) times larger than is inferred from the observed flux. The requirements of high optical depth and no photon-photon pair creation place a lower limit on the size of the scattering region. This size suggests that the attenuation occurs in giant molecular clouds in the cores of galaxies. This indicates that gamma-ray bursts are probably from supermassive black holes. If the Lorentz factor of the radiation source is large, the optical depth, and therefore the hardness ratio of a burst, can change over the duration of the burst.

Brainerd, J. J.↗