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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A data-driven operational model for traffic at the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport

Airports are on the front line of significant innovations, allowing the movement of more people and goods faster, cheaper, and with greater convenience. As air travel continues to grow, airports will face challenges in responding to increasing passenger vehicle traffic, which leads to lower operational efficiency, poor air quality, and security concerns. This paper evaluates methods for traffic demand forecasting combined with traffic microsimulation, which will allow airport operations staff to accurately predict traffic and congestion. Using two years of detailed data describing individual vehicle arrivals and departures, aircraft movements, and weather at Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport, we evaluate multiple prediction methods including the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) family of models, traditional machine learning models, and DeepAR, a modern recurrent neural network (RNN). We find that these algorithms are able to capture the diurnal trends in the surface traffic, and all do very well when predicting the next 30 minutes of demand. Longer forecast horizons are moderately effective, demonstrating the challenge of this problem and highlighting promising techniques as well as potential areas for improvement. Traffic demand is not the only factor that contributes to terminal congestion, because temporary changes to the road network, such as a lane closure, can make benign traffic demand highly congested. Combining a demand forecast with a traffic microsimulation framework provides a complete picture of traffic and its consequences. The result is an operational intelligence platform for exploring policy changes, as well as infrastructure expansion and disruption scenarios. To demonstrate the value of this approach, we present results from a case study at DFW Airport assessing the impact of a policy change for vehicle routing in high demand scenarios. This framework can assist airports like DFW as they tackle daily operational challenges, as well as explore the integration of emerging technology and expansion of their services into long term plans.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Propagating synthetic populations with dynamic Bayesian networks: a framework for long-horizon demographic forecasting

This study presents a dynamic demographic microsimulator using dynamic Bayesian networks to forecast long–term changes in household and individual life events. Leveraging longitudinal Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data, two networks for individuals and households were modeled to simulate transitions in employment, income, education, marriage, childbirth, leaving the parental home, home ownership, mortality, and household formation or dissolution. Across 1,000 simulation runs spanning 24 years, household–level outcomes remain highly accurate and individual–level predictions reasonable. Although accuracy naturally declines with projection horizon, performance remains promising at both levels. This study addresses a key limitation of existing population synthesis models, which typically generate only a single static snapshot of the population. In conclusion, by introducing a framework that propagates cross-sectional outputs into the future, the microsimulator enables the tracking of demographic evolution over time, enhances realism in population-based simulations, and supplies credible inputs to agent-based travel demand models.

Demographic modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

A modeling framework for designing and evaluating curbside traffic management policies at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport

Emerging mobility technologies are changing the transportation system landscape. This is especially evident at airports, such as the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). Without careful analysis, these changes could lead to inefficient and costly airport operations. This paper presents a modeling framework that integrates travel mode encoding, demand projection, and microsimulation to enable airports to develop, simulate, and evaluate curbside traffic managements policies and measure their impact. Here, the framework is utilized to analyze several traffic scenarios and policies for DFW: a baseline scenario which represents DFW traffic pattern as observed in 2018 and projected to 2045, a transit network company (TNC) electrification policy, a TNC queuing policy, a policy that increased transit ridership, a bus-only policy which considers the use of only buses inside DFW, an autonomous vehicle (AV) policy which investigates the impact of autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption on airport operations, and an example COVID-19 scenario which models the impact of the COVID19 pandemic. The simulations’ results demonstrate that: increasing the DFW transit ridership postpones the need for airport curbside expansion the most; encouraging shared-mobility with the bus-only policy produces the most savings in curbside congestion delays; automation and electrification for all passenger vehicle trips to/from DFW generates the most saving in fuel consumption and emissions; and uncontrolled AV adoption incurs the highest increase in fuel consumption, delay, and emissions and could require immediate airport capacity extension. Without policy intervention or investment in additional infrastructure capacity, these results predict the current operations would face significant congestion on high demand days starting as early as 2028. While derived in close partnership with DFW, the methodology presented here can be generalized to any airport.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

DICER: Data Intensive Computing Environment and Runtime for Evaluating Unprecedented Scale of Geospatial-Temporal Human Mobility Data

With the significant increase in sources and volume of human mobility data through commercial data vendors as well as microsimulation of cities, the scale of geospatial-temporal data to analyze and assess for mobility characterization has grown to the level of Big Data. There are mobility related commercial organizations deploying scalable computing, but often the system architecture, workflow, and intermediate processing components are not fully disclosed in relevant scope. Current research literature has a notable lack of studies demonstrating architectures and workflows for human mobility analytics that are implemented on a TeraByte scale of geospatial-temporal data. In this context, this paper presents a hyperscale-level system solution named DICER (Data Intensive Computing Environment and Runtime) for processing and analytics of geospatial-temporal data at big data scale. Although the cluster computing architecture of DICER with Apache Spark job running on Kubernetes cluster is not new, there are innovations in the workflow, hierarchical processing logic, and a wide range of intermediate preprocessing and mobility metrics calculation. We have performed case studies to validate the effectiveness of DICER system solution by performing detailed analytics and assessment of human mobility microsimulation output at three different scopes and scale, including a usecase with 16.97 TeraByte and 259.2 Billion rows of data. In addition, we have presented another case study of utilizing DICER to perform the same mobility processing and comparative analytics on large-scale commercially available geospatial-temporal data. All these case studies validate the efficiency and usefulness of DICER in computing population mobility characteristics from geospatial-temporal trajectory data at an unprecedented scale (not only just data volume, but also combination of: number of user entities, temporal frequency, spatial resolution, data duration).

De, Debraj↗
DOE OSTI2024

In Silico Human Mobility Data Science: Leveraging Massive Simulated Mobility Data (Vision Paper)

Human mobility data science using trajectories or check-ins of individuals has many applications. Recently, we have seen a plethora of research efforts that tackle these applications. However, research progress in this field is limited by a lack of large and representative datasets. The largest and most commonly used dataset of individual human trajectories captures fewer than 200 individuals, while datasets of individual human check-ins capture fewer than 100 check-ins per city per day. Thus, it is not clear if findings from the human mobility data science community would generalize to large populations. Since obtaining massive, representative, and individual-level human mobility data is hard to come by due to privacy considerations, the vision of this work is to embrace the use of data generated by large-scale socially realistic microsimulations. Informed by both real data and leveraging social and behavioral theories, massive spatially explicit microsimulations may allow us to simulate entire megacities at the person level. The simulated worlds, which do not capture any identifiable personal information, allow us to perform “in silico” experiments using the simulated world as a sandbox in which we have perfect information and perfect control without jeopardizing the privacy of any actual individual. In silico experiments have become commonplace in other scientific domains such as chemistry and biology, permitting experiments that foster the understanding of concepts without any harm to individuals. This work describes challenges and opportunities for leveraging massive and realistic simulated alternate worlds for in silico human mobility data science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Evolutionary Algorithm to Personalize Stool-Based Colorectal Cancer Screening

Fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) is an established method for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Measured FIT-concentrations are associated with both present and future risk of CRC, and may be used for personalized screening. However, evaluation of personalized screening is computationally challenging. In this study, a broadly applicable algorithm is presented to efficiently optimize personalized screening policies that prescribe screening intervals and FIT-cutoffs, based on age and FIT-history. We present a mathematical framework for personalized screening policies and a bi-objective evolutionary algorithm that identifies policies with minimal costs and maximal health benefits. The algorithm is combined with an established microsimulation model (MISCAN-Colon), to accurately estimate the costs and benefits of generated policies, without restrictive Markov assumptions. The performance of the algorithm is demonstrated in three experiments. In Experiment 1, a relatively small benchmark problem, the optimal policies were known. The algorithm approached the maximum feasible benefits with a relative difference of 0.007%. Experiment 2 optimized both intervals and cutoffs, Experiment 3 optimized cutoffs only. Optimal policies in both experiments are unknown. Compared to policies recently evaluated for the USPSTF, personalized screening increased health benefits up to 14 and 4.3%, for Experiments 2 and 3, respectively, without adding costs. Generated policies have several features concordant with current screening recommendations. The method presented in this paper is flexible and capable of optimizing personalized screening policies evaluated with computationally-intensive but established simulation models. It can be used to inform screening policies for CRC or other diseases. For CRC, more debate is needed on what features a policy needs to exhibit to make it suitable for implementation in practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Impacts of Autonomous Electric Vehicles Adoption on Vehicle Miles Traveled and CO2 Emissions

Autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) can potentially revolutionize the transportation landscape, offering a safer, contact-free, easily accessible, and more eco-friendly mode of travel. Prior to the market uptake of AEVs, it is critical to understand the consumer segments that are most likely to adopt these vehicles. Beyond market adoption, it is also important to quantify the impact of AEVs on broader transportation systems and the environment, such as impacts on the annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this pilot study, using survey data, a statistical model correlating AEV adoption intention and socioeconomic and built environment attributes was estimated, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to understand the importance of factors impacting AEV adoption. We found that the market segments range from early adopters who are wealthy, technologically savvy, and relatively young to non-adopters who are more cautious to new technologies. This is followed by a synthetic population microsimulation of market penetration for the San Francisco Bay Area. With five household vehicle replacement scenarios, we assessed the annual VMT and tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions change associated with vehicle replacement. It is found that adopting AEVs can potentially reduce more than 5 megatons of CO2 yearly, which is approximately 30% of the total CO2 emitted by internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in the region.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Stopping Ages for Colorectal Cancer Screening

Importance Prior studies have shown that the benefits, harms, and costs of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at older ages are associated with a patient’s sex, health, and screening history. However, these studies were hypothetical exercises and not directly informed by data on CRC risk. Objective To identify the optimal stopping ages for CRC screening by sex, comorbidity, and screening history from a cost-effectiveness perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation first validated the MISCAN-Colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon) model against community-based CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2 subcohorts of the PRECISE (Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Precision and Outcomes in Community-Based Populations) cohort. Subsequently, different CRC screening scenarios were simulated in older individuals. Cohorts of US adults aged 76 to 90 years varied by sex and comorbidity status (none, low, moderate, or severe). Statistical and sensitivity analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024. Exposures CRC screening histories including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy, such as a negative colonoscopy result from 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 years before the index age; 1 to 5 negative FIT results within 5 years of the index age, with different patterns of recency; or a combination of negative colonoscopy and negative FIT results. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes included estimated lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG) associated with 1 additional FIT or colonoscopy. Optimal stopping age for screening, defined as the oldest age for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was still below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $\$$100 000 per QALYG, was evaluated. Results The first of the 2 PRECISE subcohorts used in validating the simulation model included 25 974 adults (15 060 females [58.0%]; 54.7% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index date. The second subcohort consisted of 118 269 adults (67 058 females [56.7%]; 90.5% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative FIT result 1 year before the index date. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity levels, and recent CRC screenings were associated with reduced incremental benefit and cost-effectiveness of additional screening. For the reference cohort of 76-year-old females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, 1 additional colonoscopy cost $\$$38 226 per QALYG. For cohorts with otherwise equivalent characteristics, associated costs increased to $\$$1 689 945 per QALYG for females at age 90 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy results 10 years before the index age, $\$$51 604 per QALYG for males at age 76 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, and $\$$108 480 per QALYG for females at age 76 years with severe comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age and decreased to $\$$16 870 per QALYG for females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 30 years before the index age. The optimal stopping ages across different cohorts ranged from younger than 76 to 86 years for colonoscopy and younger than 76 to 88 years for FIT. Conclusions and Relevance In this economic evaluation, age, sex, screening history, comorbidity, and future screening modality were associated with the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and optimal stopping age for CRC screening. These results can inform guideline development and patient-directed informed decision-making.

Harlass, Matthias [Erasmus Erasmus University Medi↗
DOE OSTI2021

Shared automated vehicle fleet operations for first-mile last-mile transit connections with dynamic pooling

Shared automated vehicles (SAVs) have the potential to promote transit ridership by providing efficient first-mile last-mile (FMLM) connections through reduced operational costs to fleet providers and lower out-of-pocket costs to riders. To help plan for a future of integrated mobility, this paper investigates the impacts of SAVs serving FMLM connections, as a mode that provides flexibility in access/egress decisions and is well coordinated with train station schedules. To achieve this objective, a novel dynamic pooling algorithm was introduced to match SAVs with riders while coordinating the riders' arrival times at the light-rail station to a known train schedule. Microsimulations of SAVs and travelers throughout two central Austin neighborhoods show how larger service areas, higher levels of SAV demand, and longer arrival times between successive trains require larger SAV fleet sizes and higher SAV utilization rates to deliver close traveler wait times. Four-person SAVs appear to perform similar to 6-seat SAVs but will cost less to provide. Using a dynamic pooling algorithm tightly coordinated with train arrivals (every 15 min) delivers 87% of travelers to their stations in time to catch the next train, whereas uncoordinated assignments deliver just 58% of travelers in time.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the evaluation and selection of network-level traffic control policies: Perimeter control, TUC, and their combination

Perimeter control (PC) of urban traffic networks can be effective in increasing network-wide efficiency. PC operates on the border of a protected region of a traffic network. Most studies thus far considered fixed-time plans for the inner part of these regions. A few studies have shown that combining PC with locally actuated or decentralized traffic control systems may have positive effects on traffic performance, including better-defined Network Macroscopic Fundamental Diagrams (NMFDs), increased network throughput, and reduced delays. The Traffic-responsive Urban Control (TUC) is a real-time network-wide traffic control system with particular design characteristics, such as the balancing of link's occupancies and an inherent gating feature. These characteristics suggest that TUC may enhance the traffic network performance when combined with PC whilst improving the resulting NMFDs and network throughput and delays. Here, in this work, we investigate the effect of feedback perimeter control (FPC), TUC, and their combination on the NMFD and on the traffic conditions of general traffic and public transport in the microsimulation of a realistic model of the Christchurch Central Business District in New Zealand. We perform a thorough investigation of practical aspects of both control strategies and their combination, including parameter tuning and infrastructure requirements, and how they may affect the control system choice. Results show higher throughput and less hysteresis on the NMFDs, particularly when TUC is involved. PC provides benefits concentrated in the protected region which can greatly benefit public transportation if there is an overlap with the transit network. The combination of TUC and FPC boosts network-wide throughput.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Distributed optimization for multi-commodity urban traffic control

A distributed method for concurrent traffic signal and routing control of traffic networks is proposed. The method is based on the multi-commodity store-and-forward model, in which the destinations are the commodities. The system benefits from the communication between vehicles and infrastructure, providing optimal signal timings to intersections and routes to vehicles on a link-by-link basis. Using the augmented Lagrangian to model the constraints into the objective, the baseline centralized problem is decomposed into a set of objective-coupled subproblems, one for each intersection, enabling the solution to be computed by a distributed- gradient projection algorithm. Further, the intersection agents only need to communicate and coordinate with neighboring intersections to ensure convergence to the optimal solution while tolerating suboptimal iterations that offer more flexibility, unlike other distributed approaches. Through microsimulation, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in traffic networks with time-varying demand. Computational analysis shows that the distributed problem is suitable for real-time applications. A robustness analysis show that the distributed formulation enables a graceful degradation of the system in case of failure.

Augmented Lagrangian↗
DOE OSTI2026

Automatic Lane-Level Road Network Extraction from Aerial Imagery for Transportation Digital Twins

Accurate road networks are essential for credible traffic microsimulation and transportation digital twins, yet high-definition maps are often difficult to obtain due to limited availability, high cost, or proprietary restrictions. Some build networks from crowdsourced data, such as OpenStreetMap, but these sources often contain geometric and semantic inconsistencies. Others create networks manually, a process that is labor-intensive and difficult to scale. To address these limitations, this work presents an end-to-end pipeline that automatically extracts georeferenced, lane-level road networks from publicly available high-resolution satellite imagery and converts them into simulation-ready assets. The developed end-to-end pipeline has three primary modules: (1) A computer-vision-based module first detects directed lane geometries and intersection layouts. (2) A heuristic-based topology construction module then identifies approach and exit legs and establishes conflict-free lane-to-lane connections. (3) Finally, an automatic simulation-building module converts the extracted network into standard formats, e.g., OpenDRIVE, and generates routable SUMO networks. The framework supports both complete network construction from scratch and local-scale refinement of existing networks through lane-count correction, transition recovery, and geometric regularization. The proposed pipeline provides a practical pathway to generate traffic simulation networks from satellite imagery, significantly reducing manual reconstruction effort and enabling scalable, continuously updated transportation digital twins.

Guo, Hetian [University of Georgia, Athens] (ORCID↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tax Credits for Clean Electricity: The Distributional Impacts of Supply-Push Policies in the Power Sector

We evaluate distributional and efficiency consequences of the bulk power clean electricity tax credits authorized by the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. To do so, we link detailed electricity capacity expansion, computable general equilibrium, microsimulation, and air pollution models to estimate economic welfare and health incidence across demographic groups. We evaluate trade-offs between policy efficiency and income progressivity by comparing the tax credits to cap-and-trade policies. The tax credits encourage increased clean electricity investment, resulting in a reallocation of capital from elsewhere in the economy, higher prices for capital and other goods, lower power prices, and lower emissions. The tax credits yield progressive outcomes for economic welfare at the expense of efficiency while all modeled policies demonstrate progressivity in health impacts. The health benefits, absent climate benefits, exceed total policy costs and provide greater benefits for low-income and historically marginalized households given coincidence of household locations and emissions exposure intensity.

distributional impacts↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benefits of colorectal cancer screening using fecal immunochemical testing with varying positivity thresholds by age and sex

Background Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) performance for colorectal cancer screening varies by age and sex, yet most FIT-based screening programs use uniform positivity thresholds. This study assessed the potential benefits of stratifying FIT thresholds based on age and sex. Methods We conducted a meta-analysis of FIT sensitivity and specificity at various positivity thresholds by age and sex. We then used these estimates in 2 microsimulation models of colorectal cancer and projected lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained from age- and sex-stratified FIT strategies. FIT thresholds ranged from 10 to 50 µg hemoglobin per gram of feces. Results For current uniform FIT screening (20 µg hemoglobin/gram of feces), models projected 85.67 to 122.15 QALYs gained at incremental costs of ‒$982 to $504 per 1000 individuals compared with no screening. At equivalent costs to current uniform screening, only 1 model found stratified FIT approaches cost-effective, yielding a marginal increase of 1.04 and 1.10 QALYs gained/1000 female and male individuals, respectively. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000/QALYs gained, both models found stratified FIT cutoffs to be the best strategy, with cutoffs being equal to or higher for males and lowest at older ages (70-75 years). Uniform strategies showed comparable effectiveness, falling within 1 quality-adjusted life-day per person of efficient strategies at up to $112 more per person. Results were sensitive to FIT test performance characteristics and 1-time setup costs. Conclusion Stratifying FIT thresholds by age and sex may be cost-effective compared to current screening. The gain in expected health benefits with stratified FIT screening, however, is likely small.

Harlass, Matthias↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy-Efficient Driving in Connected Corridors via Minimum Principle Control: Vehicle-in-the-Loop Experimental Verification in Mixed Fleets

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) can plan and actuate control that explicitly considers performance, system safety, and actuation constraints in a manner more efficient than their human-driven counterparts. In particular, eco-driving is enabled through connected exchange of information from signalized corridors that share their upcoming signal phase and timing (SPaT). This is accomplished in the proposed control approach, which follows first principles to plan a free-flow acceleration-optimal trajectory through green traffic light intervals by Pontryagin's Minimum Principle in a feedback manner. Urban conditions are then imposed from exogeneous traffic comprised of a mixture of human-driven vehicles (HVs) - as well as other CAVs. As such, safe disturbance compensation is achieved by implementing a model predictive controller (MPC) to anticipate and avoid collisions by issuing braking commands as necessary. The control strategy is experimentally vetted through vehicle-in-the-loop (VIL) of a prototype CAV that is embedded into a virtual traffic corridor realized through microsimulation. Up to 36% fuel savings are measured with the proposed control approach over a human-modelled driver, and it was found connectivity in the automation approach improved fuel economy by up to 26% over automation without. Additionally, the passive energy benefits realizable for human drivers when driving behind downstream CAVs are measured, showing up to 22% fuel savings in a HV when driving behind a small penetration of connectivity-enabled automated vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Systematic Comparison for Consistent Scenario Development Using Microscopic Simulation Software

This study aims to explore a methodology that enables the development of consistent traffic micro simulation for emerging traffic and vehicle control technologies for improved mobility and energy efficiency across different modeling platforms. Researchers might study the same application on different platforms and have the need to benchmark across platforms. However, there lacks a systematic study on simulation software comparison, especially for emerging mobility and energy efficiency applications. For this, a systematic scenario development and evaluation approach is presented and demonstrated to compare scenarios generated in different traffic microsimulation platforms. Network-level and vehicle-level trip performance results of the traffic scenario are evaluated in three microscopic simulation platforms - VISSIM, AIMSUN, and SUMO. The results indicate that the network-level performance is consistent among the three software suites except when the demand is high, where the energy consumption performance varies.

Saroj, Abhilasha [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000191178063)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automobile and Technology Lifecycle-Based Assignment (ATLAS) v2.0.12

ATLAS is a comprehensive vehicle transaction and technology adoption microsimulator. ATLAS evolves the fleet mix of individual households by simulating the transaction (vehicle addition, disposal, and replacement) and choice (vehicle type, vintage, powertrain, and tenure) decisions in response to the co-evolving demographics, land use, and vehicle technology simulations. Different from the existing vehicle models that are either static or aggregated (e.g. stock model), ATLAS is fully disaggregated and dynamic following a sequential and circumstantial decision-making trajectory. This fine-grained approach not only enhances the realism of the simulation but also provides a nuanced understanding of the dynamics inherent in vehicle fleet evolution. ATLAS outputs are fully compatible with subsequent agent-based transportation modeling system and can enable distributional effect analysis regarding the fleet turnover among heterogeneous populations. ATLAS expands the typical new sale focused vehicle choice modeling to including used vehicle transactions that are of increasing interests to understanding the vehicle adoption behavior among lower income households.

Jin, Ling↗