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The analysis of star catalogs. 2: An intercomparison among the GC, the N30, and the FK5(B1950.0/FK4)

We use the general method of compiled data set analysis developed in our first paper (Bucciarelli et. al. 1994) and extend our analysis of fundamental star catalogs to include the two American ones. The problems found in the FK3/FK4/FK5 sequence are not present in either the GC or the N30. This lends support to the hypothesis advanced in our previous paper that the FK3, and to a lesser extent the FK4 declination system, are distorted by high angular frequency systematics. On the other hand, both the GC and N30 equatorial coordinate and proper motion distributions nicely follow the predictions of mathematical statistics. As with the FK3/FK4/FK5 analysis, the new results are as seen by the FK5 (on the FK4/B1950.0 system).

Taff, L. G.↗

Fade Dynamics and Its Evolution: The Other Part of the Acts Rain Prediction Model

The inception of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project has required as similarly advanced statistical mathematical modeling formalism to describe the behavior of the 30/20 GHz links emanating to and from the earth terminals through the deleterious effects of the earth's atmosphere. The resulting ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model has been thoroughly described in [Manning, 1990]. In the present paper, the basic rudiments of this model will be reviewed; Section 1 covers the static or time-independent portion of the model and Section 2 covers the dynamic of time-dependent portion. The results of Section 2 are then applied to a new approximate solution of the famous problem of the time duration tau of a fade of random process below some threshold. This is known as the fade duration. The new approximate solution was published in Russian [Denisenko] and, unfortunately, was never published into English. Hence, this work is restated following [Denisenko] in Section 3 which is immediately applied to the random rain fade process. The results for all five ACTS propagation sites as well as Tampa, FL are then given.

Manning, Robert M.↗

Fade Dynamics and its Evolution: The Other Part of the ACTS Rain Prediction Model

The inception of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project has required a similarly advanced statistical mathematical modeling formalism to describe the behavior of the 30/20 GHz links emanating to and from the earth terminals through the deleterious effects of the earth's atmosphere. The resulting ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model has been thoroughly described in (Manning). In the present paper, the basic rudiments of this model will be reviewed; Section 1 covers the static or time-independent portion of the model and Section 2 covers the dynamic or time-dependent portion. The results of Section 2 are then applied to a new approximate solution of the famous problem of the time duration tau of a fade of a random process below some threshold. This is known as the fade duration. The new approximate solution was published in Russian (Denisenko) and, unfortunately, was never published into English. Hence, this work is restated following (Denisenko) in Section 3 which is immediately applied to the random rain fade process. The results for all five ACTS propagation sites as well as Tampa, FL are then given.

Manning, Robert M.↗

Solar Radiation Transport in the Cloudy Atmosphere: A 3D Perspective on Observations and Climate Impacts

The interplay of sunlight with clouds is a ubiquitous and often pleasant visual experience, but it conjures up major challenges for weather, climate, environmental science and beyond. Those engaged in the characterization of clouds (and the clear air nearby) by remote sensing methods are even more confronted. The problem comes, on the one hand, from the spatial complexity of real clouds and, on the other hand, from the dominance of multiple scattering in the radiation transport. The former ingredient contrasts sharply with the still popular representation of clouds as homogeneous plane-parallel slabs for the purposes of radiative transfer computations. In typical cloud scenes the opposite asymptotic transport regimes of diffusion and ballistic propagation coexist. We survey the three-dimensional (3D) atmospheric radiative transfer literature over the past 50 years and identify three concurrent and intertwining thrusts: first, how to assess the damage (bias) caused by 3D effects in the operational 1D radiative transfer models? Second, how to mitigate this damage? Finally, can we exploit 3D radiative transfer phenomena to innovate observation methods and technologies? We quickly realize that the smallest scale resolved computationally or observationally may be artificial but is nonetheless a key quantity that separates the 3D radiative transfer solutions into two broad and complementary classes: stochastic and deterministic. Both approaches draw on classic and contemporary statistical, mathematical and computational physics.

Davis, Anthony B.↗

NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) 3.1: Model Verification and Validation

The NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) 3.1 Model Verification and Validation (V&V) document accompanies the delivery of the latest ORDEM 3.1 model (Vavrin & Manis, 2019) and provides a detailed description of the V&V activities used to verify that the model was built correctly and validate the model against independent, real world sources of data obtained from sampling the orbital debris environment. This ORDEM 3.1 Model V&V document, along with the related ORDEM 3.1 Model Process document – which covers details of the mathematical, statistical, and physical basis of the model – are intended to inform credibility assessments, risk analyses, uncertainty characterizations, and other applications derived from use of the model by the ORDEM 3.1 user community.

Timothy Kennedy↗

A Shift Selection Strategy for Parallel Shift-invert Spectrum Slicing in Symmetric Self-consistent Eigenvalue Computation

The central importance of large-scale eigenvalue problems in scientific computation necessitates the development of massively parallel algorithms for their solution. Recent advances in dense numerical linear algebra have enabled the routine treatment of eigenvalue problems with dimensions on the order of hundreds of thousands on the world’s largest supercomputers. In cases where dense treatments are not feasible, Krylov subspace methods offer an attractive alternative due to the fact that they do not require storage of the problem matrices. However, demonstration of scalability of either of these classes of eigenvalue algorithms on computing architectures capable of expressing massive parallelism is non-trivial due to communication requirements and serial bottlenecks, respectively. In this work, we introduce the SISLICE method: a parallel shift-invert algorithm for the solution of the symmetric self-consistent field (SCF) eigenvalue problem. The SISLICE method drastically reduces the communication requirement of current parallel shift-invert eigenvalue algorithms through various shift selection and migration techniques based on density of states estimation and k-means clustering, respectively. This work demonstrates the robustness and parallel performance of the SISLICE method on a representative set of SCF eigenvalue problems and outlines research directions that will be explored in future work.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Using the Monte Carlo Method to Evaluate the Reliability of Screening Multifamily Housing for Radon

When screening for radon in a multifamily housing complex using a fixed sample density (e.g., testing 1 in 10 (10%) or 1 in 4 units (25%)), the statistical confidence is dependent upon the assumed elevated radon frequency. For example, testing 25% of units in a complex estimated to have eight units with elevated radon levels will provide 90% confidence. However, if it is assumed that, in the same complex, there are only three units with elevated radon levels, the confidence drops to around 58% for the same sample density. Furthermore, in the previous example, if elevated radon levels are not found during the screening, all that can be stated is that the screening provides 90% confidence that there are no more than seven units in the complex with elevated radon levels. To more fully illustrate this uncertainty, ten separate multifamily housing radon data sets with 1 to 10 units with radon levels ≥4 pCi/L (Table 1) were selected for analysis using the Monte Carlo statistical method. Unlike other mathematically based statistical approaches, the Monte Carlo statistical method relies on repeated analysis of randomly selected data. from a 100% sampled complex at various sample densities. Success for each simulation is defined as finding at least one unit with elevated radon levels. In this statistical method, confidence in the overarching conclusion can be greatly enhanced by repeating the simulated screening hundreds or even thousands of times. For this study, each of the ten data sets was simulated 1,000 times. For each simulation, the data set was randomized three times before the fixed percentage of data was selected.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Database and deep-learning scalability of anharmonic phonon properties by automated brute-force first-principles calculations

Understanding the anharmonic phonon properties of crystal compounds—such as phonon lifetimes and thermal conductivities—is essential for investigating and optimizing their thermal transport behaviors. These properties also impact optical, electronic, and magnetic characteristics through interactions between phonons and other quasiparticles and fields. In this study, we develop an automated first-principles workflow to calculate anharmonic phonon properties and build a comprehensive database encompassing more than 6500 inorganic compounds. Utilizing this dataset, we train a graph neural network model to predict thermal conductivity values and spectra from structural parameters, demonstrating a scaling law in which prediction accuracy improves with increasing training data size. High-throughput screening with the model enables the identification of materials exhibiting extreme thermal conductivities—both high and low. The resulting database offers valuable insights into the anharmonic behavior of phonons, thereby accelerating the design and development of advanced functional materials.

Ohnishi, Masato [University of Tokyo (Japan); Inst↗

Remote Sensing, Uncertainty Quantification, and a Theory of Data Systems; Workshop Report

The purpose of the workshop was to invite statisticians, applied mathematicians, computer scientists, data system architects, experts in remote sensing technology, and Climate and Earth System scientists to review, discuss, and plan research on issues related to large-scale, efficient analysis of distributed data using spatial statistical methods. Our motivation in organizing this event was to catalyze interchange among experts on the fast-emerging problem of analysis of distributed data. As part of SAMSI's 2017-2018 Program on Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Climate and the Earth System, a Working Group on Remote Sensing was established to address statistical and mathematical research problems in the analysis of remote sensing data. The Working Group has five subgroups: 1) Spatial Retrieval Methodology (the so-called \Spatial-X" subgroup); 2) Spatial Analysis for Hyperspectral Data (the so-called \Spatial-Y" subgroup); 3) Emulators for Complex Forward Models; 4) Optimization for Remote Sensing Retrievals; and 5) Theory of Data Systems (ToDS). The ToDS subgroup spent the first half of this academic year formulating a framework in which to consider the joint problem of a) optimizing statistical methods for environments where data are distributed and too large to move to a central location, and b) the design of data system infrastructures within which to implement those statistical methods. To x ideas, the Workshop focused on spatial statistical methods. To date there are many new spatial statistical methods designed with massive data sets in mind, in the literature. However, very few have been implemented for remote sensing data, and none have been implemented in operational settings like those used by NASA and NOAA. A major impediment to their use in these cases is that the data are not only massive, but are stored in different physical locations. These data must be brought together in some way in order to estimate spatial covariance functions, but moving data to a central location for analysis is tedious at best and impossible at worst. Some remote data reduction is almost certainly necessary, but how much? What are the consequences for inference? The fundamental issue underlying these questions is how to navigate the trade-space between costs and uncertainty in the estimates or inferences that are ultimately produced.

Braverman, Amy↗

Statistical prediction with Kanerva's sparse distributed memory

A new viewpoint of the processing performed by Kanerva's sparse distributed memory (SDM) is presented. In conditions of near- or over-capacity, where the associative-memory behavior of the model breaks down, the processing performed by the model can be interpreted as that of a statistical predictor. Mathematical results are presented which serve as the framework for a new statistical viewpoint of sparse distributed memory and for which the standard formulation of SDM is a special case. This viewpoint suggests possible enhancements to the SDM model, including a procedure for improving the predictiveness of the system based on Holland's work with genetic algorithms, and a method for improving the capacity of SDM even when used as an associative memory.

Rogers, David↗

Algorithm for Detection of Ground and Canopy Cover in Micropulse Photon-Counting Lidar Altimeter Data in Preparation for the ICESat-2 Mission

NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite-II (ICESat-2) mission is a decadal survey mission (2016 launch). The mission objectives are to measure land ice elevation, sea ice freeboard, and changes in these variables, as well as to collect measurements over vegetation to facilitate canopy height determination. Two innovative components will characterize the ICESat-2 lidar: 1) collection of elevation data by a multibeam system and 2) application of micropulse lidar (photon-counting) technology. A photon-counting altimeter yields clouds of discrete points, resulting from returns of individual photons, and hence new data analysis techniques are required for elevation determination and association of the returned points to reflectors of interest. The objective of this paper is to derive an algorithm that allows detection of ground under dense canopy and identification of ground and canopy levels in simulated ICESat-2 data, based on airborne observations with a Sigma Space micropulse lidar. The mathematical algorithm uses spatial statistical and discrete mathematical concepts, including radial basis functions, density measures, geometrical anisotropy, eigenvectors, and geostatistical classification parameters and hyperparameters. Validation shows that ground and canopy elevation, and hence canopy height, can be expected to be observable with high accuracy by ICESat-2 for all expected beam energies considered for instrument design (93.01%-99.57% correctly selected points for a beam with expected return of 0.93 mean signals per shot (msp), and 72.85%-98.68% for 0.48 msp). The algorithm derived here is generally applicable for elevation determination from photoncounting lidar altimeter data collected over forested areas, land ice, sea ice, and land surfaces, as well as for cloud detection.

Algorithms↗

A procedure of multiple period searching in unequally spaced time-series with the Lomb-Scargle method

Periodogram analysis of unequally spaced time-series, as part of many biological rhythm investigations, is complicated. The mathematical framework is scattered over the literature, and the interpretation of results is often debatable. In this paper, we show that the Lomb-Scargle method is the appropriate tool for periodogram analysis of unequally spaced data. A unique procedure of multiple period searching is derived, facilitating the assessment of the various rhythms that may be present in a time-series. All relevant mathematical and statistical aspects are considered in detail, and much attention is given to the correct interpretation of results. The use of the procedure is illustrated by examples, and problems that may be encountered are discussed. It is argued that, when following the procedure of multiple period searching, we can even benefit from the unequal spacing of a time-series in biological rhythm research.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗