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DOE OSTI2022

Water and Climate Impacts on ERCOT Long-Term Systems Assessment

Water and climate change pose many potential challenges to the electric power system. Substantial water is withdrawn every day to support thermoelectric power generating unit operations, and changes to water supply have the potential to affect generation dispatch. Climate change can accelerate growing demand for electricity, which can necessitate additional generating capacity, often in locations with limited water supply. Drought conditions also threaten thermoelectric power plant operations due to streamflow and reservoir levels dropping below intake structures, or water temperatures exceeding a power plants' permitted operating conditions. Here we explore how future climate change might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning in Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) using a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on the future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation for four future climate projections. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated for these scenarios. These climate impacts are applied to five alternative electricity futures in an electricity capacity expansion model that projects future generation and transmission capacity additions in ERCOT. Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on future generation and transmission capacity needs, with temperature-driven increases in peak and average load resulting in 5-15 GW additional generating capacity and up to 1 GW additional transmission capacity. Additional capacity is a diverse mix of PV, natural gas, and wind, depending on the makeup of economic, policy and technology assumptions. Climate impacts increase total system costs 2-5%, while the marginal cost of energy and emissions are not affected substantially by climate change effects.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cost-Benefit Assessment of Krypton and Xenon Recovery from Aqueous Reprocessing

The purpose of this paper is to provide an understanding of the cost-benefit of capturing Kr and Xe from the existing process of aqueous reprocessing of UNF. The study accomplishes this with a market assessment of Xe prices and volumes today, coupled with a cost estimate of Kr and Xe capture out of cryogenic distillation within aqueous reprocessing. The market assessment shows that the average price of Xe is about $\$ $60/L while the average price of Kr is about $\$ $1/L. The assessment also shows that the market structure for Xe is one of oligopoly, in other words, very few suppliers to the Xe market. The assessment shows growing demand for Xe, particularly in medical applications like anesthesia. The cost assessment finds the unit cost of Xe to range from $\$ $71.50/L to $\$ $131.13/L. This range is only slightly above the current range of market prices today, and with growing demand for Xe, prices could reach the range it would take to support extraction of Xe from aqueous reprocessing. On the other hand, the estimated cost range for Kr is $\$ $830.15/L up to $\$ $1,522.52/L, which far exceeds the range of market prices for Kr. However, as the text notes, Kr capture is already part of aqueous reprocessing so these costs are sunk costs (already incurred) whereas the cost estimates for Xe are marginal cost (if Xe is desired, then the cost estimate would result from the Xe capture).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A scoping study of far-SOL main-wall protection limiters for steady-state operation of compact pilot plant tokamaks

We present a novel method for handling steady-state heat fluxes incident on the main wall of pilot plant-scale magnetic fusion devices, based on the utilization of protection limiters in the far scrape-off layer (SOL). This method helps avoid large plasma-wall gaps, without excessively compromising blanket performance. We present an optimization algorithm for determining the appropriate size and scale of these protection limiters given (1) probability distributions of SOL plasma parameters and (2) assumed risk tolerance. As part of this optimization, we have developed an analytic description of parallel heat fluxes across limiter shadows, and an objective cost function (the ‘Far-SOL Marginal Cost’) to quantify the impact that different main-wall thermal management design choices have on reactor capital cost. Applying the model to a midscale fusion pilot plant concept shows that making use of far-SOL protection limiters can reduce capital costs on the order of $500 M, relative to naively increasing the plasma-wall gap. Our analysis demonstrates that the far-SOL power decay length is the highest-leverage plasma assumption for thermal loading of the first wall, and the primary cost driver for main wall thermal management. The relative cost efficiency of protection limiters increases as assumptions on the far-SOL heat flux become more pessimistic. The concepts described in this paper motivate the further development of far-SOL protection limiters as part of larger efforts to design economical core-edge-wall compatible solutions for a fusion pilot plant.

Design under uncertainty↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Long-Term Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage to Reference Power Generation Technologies Using CO2 Avoidance Cost in the U.S.

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can sequester atmospheric CO2, while producing electricity. The CO2 avoidance cost (CAC) is used to calculate the marginal cost of avoided CO2 emissions for BECCS as compared to other established energy technologies. A comparative analysis using four different reference-case power plants for CAC calculations is performed here to evaluate the CO2 avoidance cost of BECCS implementation. Results from this work demonstrate that BECCS can generate electricity at costs competitive with other neutral emissions technologies, while simultaneously removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Approximately 73% of current coal power plants are approaching retirement by the year 2035 in the U.S. After considering CO2 sequestered from the atmosphere and coal power plant CO2 emissions displaced by BECCS, CO2 emissions can be reduced by 1.4 billion tonnes per year in the U.S. alone at a cost of $88 to $116 per tonne of CO2 removed from the atmosphere, for 10% to 90% of available biomass used, respectively. CAC calculations in this paper indicate that BECCS can help the U.S. and other countries transition to a decarbonized electricity grid, as simulations presented in this paper predict that BECCS power plants operate at lower CACs than coal plants with CCS.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2021

Financial feasibility of water conservation in agriculture

Global water use for food production needs to be reduced to remain within planetary boundaries, yet the financial feasibility of crucial measures to reduce water use is poorly quantified. Here, we introduce a novel method to compare the costs of water conservation measures with the added value that reallocation of water savings might generate if used for expansion of irrigation. Based on detailed water accounting through the use of a high-resolution hydrology-crop model, we modify the traditional cost curve approach with an improved estimation of demand, increasing marginal cost per water conservation measure combination and add a correction to control for impacts on downstream water availability. We apply the method to three major river basins in the Indo-Gangetic plain (Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra), a major global food producing region but increasingly water stressed. Our analysis shows that at basin level only about 10% (Brahmaputra) to just over 20% (Indus and Ganges) of potential water savings would be realised; the equilibrium price for water is too low to make the majority of water conservation measures cost effective. The associated expansion of irrigated area is moderate, about 7% in the Indus basin, 5% in the Ganges and negligible in the Brahmaputra, but farmers' gross profit increases more substantially, by 11%. Increasing the volumetric cost of irrigation water influences supply and demand in a similar way and has little influence on water reallocation. Controlling for the impact on return flows is important and more than halves the amount of water available for reallocation.

Geography / Land Utilization↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal design of solar-driven electrolytic hydrogen production systems within electricity markets

Hydrogen has the potential to be a key contributor toward a low-carbon economy. Generating hydrogen by electrolysis using renewable energy is one way to support a decarbonized economy; however, its cost is not typically competitive with the carbon-emitting incumbent technology, steam methane reforming. The ability of electrolysis to integrate with electricity markets presents a unique cost reduction opportunity due to the perceived future availability of low and zero-marginal cost renewable energy sources. Additionally, as renewables, and particularly, photovoltaics are installed on the grid, they have a value deflation effect. This work evaluates solar-electrolysis configurations using a mathematical programming framework to maximize system net present value. The framework has been tested with specific weather conditions and financial mechanisms in California. Our findings indicate that a spectrum of potential cost competitive solutions is available for systems that (i) have market configurations resembling hybrid retail/wholesale, resulting in a hydrogen production cost range of US$6.2 kg-1–US$6.6 kg-1, or full wholesale market participation, reducing production cost to US$2.6 kg-1–US$3.1 kg-1, and (ii) achieve projected future cost reductions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Oxygen Storage Incorporated Into Net Power and the Allam–Fetvedt Oxy-Fuel sCO2 Power Cycle—Techno-Economic Analysis

Abstract With the planned future reliance on variable renewable energy, the ability to store energy for prolonged time periods will be required to reduce the disruption of market fluctuations. This paper presents a method to analyze a hybrid liquid-oxygen (LOx) storage/direct-fired supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power cycle and optimize the economic performance over a diverse range of scenarios. The system utilizes a modified version of the NET Power process to produce energy when energy demand exceeds the supply while displacing much of the cost of the air separation unit (ASU) energy requirements through cryogenic storage of oxygen. The model uses marginal cost of energy data to determine the optimal times to charge and discharge the system over a given scenario. The model then applies ramp rates and other time-dependent factors to generate an economic model for the system without storage considerations. The size of the storage system is then applied to create a realistic model of the plant operation. From the real plant operation model, the amount of energy charged and discharged, the capital expenditures (CAPEX) of each system, energy costs and revenue and other parameters can be calculated. The economic parameters are then combined to calculate the net present value (NPV) of the system for the given scenario. The model was then run through the SMPSO genetic algorithm in Python for a variety of geographic regions and large-scale scenarios (high solar penetration) to maximize the NPV based on multiple parameters for each subsystem. The LOx storage requirements will also be discussed.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Pumped Thermal Energy Storage Performance and Cost Using Silica Storage Media

Pumped Thermal Energy Storage (PTES) is an electricity storage system that is suitable for long-duration energy storage (10-1000 h) due to its low marginal cost of energy capacity. We present a techno-economic model of a PTES system that uses particle thermal energy storage. Particles have low costs and can be operated over a wide temperature range leading to increased efficiency and reduced costs compared to other PTES designs. We show how the round-trip efficiency, specific power output, capital cost, and levelized cost of storage (LCOS) depend on parameters such as the pressure ratio, heat exchanger approach temperature and pressure loss, and maximum temperature. We compare particle-PTES (P-PTES) performance to PTES which uses liquid thermal energy storage - i.e. molten salt hot storage and methanol cold storage (MS-PTES). We find that using silica particles for storage advances PTES technology: P-PTES can be operated at higher maximum temperatures than MS-PTES. Furthermore, P-PTES can achieve lower approach temperatures in the heat exchangers than MS-PTES without increasing capital costs, because P-PTES uses direct-contact heat transfer in fluidized bed heat exchangers. As a result, we find that P-PTES systems achieve higher round-trip efficiency than MS-PTES (66 % versus 57 %) and lower LCOS (e.g. 0.115 +- 0.03 $/kWhe versus 0.171 +- 0.04 $/kWhe for 10 h discharge). The low cost of particles and containment means that P-PTES can provide long-duration energy storage at low capital cost per unit energy capacity. For example, the total capital cost per unit energy reduces from 245 $/kWhe at 10 h to 38 $/kWhe at 100 h. These costs are considerably lower than MS-PTES (72 $/kWhe at 100 h) and also outcompete current and future Li-ion battery system projections (100-265 $/kWhe).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the efficacy of aluminide coatings to improve oxidation resistance of high performance engine valve alloys

Increasing peak cylinder pressures and operating temperatures of turbo-charged internal combustion engines (ICEs) engines present new challenges for existing materials employed in engine exhaust valves. Oxidation induced degradation of current Ni based alloys for these components will be a life-limiting mechanism while strict cost margins in the automotive transportation industry further limit the choice of suitable candidate materials. Metallic diffusion aluminide coatings can provide a cost-effective way to improve the oxidation resistance of underlying materials. In this study, the high temperature oxidation behavior of diffusion nickel aluminide coatings on two Ni based alloys (commercially available alloy 31V and a developmental alloy) during cyclic oxidation behavior in air+10% H 2 O at 900 °C was investigated. A complete depletion of the beneficial Al-rich β-(NiFe)Al phase was observed in the coating on alloy 31V while a significant fraction of this phase was retained in the coating on the second alloy. A coupled thermodynamic-kinetic model showed that the disappearance of the Al-rich phase in the coating on 31V was mainly due to the combined effect of steeper chemical potential gradients of Al and Ti between the coating and the substrate and their faster diffusivities compared to the coated developmental alloy. Finally, a higher content of Fe was shown to support the retention of β-(NiFe)Al phase in the coating on the developmental alloy while the presence of Ti in the alloy was shown to be detrimental for long-term coating performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Funding a Just Transition Away from Coal in the U.S. Considering Avoided Damage from Air Pollution

Abstract Coal is declining in the U.S. as part of the clean energy transition, resulting in remarkable air pollution benefits for the American public and significant costs for the industry. Using the AP3 integrated assessment model, we estimate that fewer emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and primary fine particulate matter driven by coal’s decline led to $300 billion in benefits from 2014 to 2019. Conversely, we find that job losses driven by less coal plant and mining activity resulted in $7.84 billion in foregone wages over the same timeframe. While the benefits were greatly distributed (mostly throughout the East), costs were highly concentrated in coal communities. Transferring a small fraction of the benefits to workers could cover these costs while maintaining societal net benefits. Forecasting coal fleet damages from 2020 to 2035, we find that buying out or replacing these plants would result in $589 billion in air quality benefits, which considerably outweigh the costs. The return on investment increases when policy targets the most damaging capacity, and net benefits are maximized when removing just facilities where marginal benefits exceed marginal costs. Evaluating competitive reverse auction policy designs akin to Germany’s Coal Exit Act, we find that adjusting bids based on monetary damages rather than based only on carbon dioxide emissions – the German design – provides a welfare advantage. Our benefit–cost analyses clearly support policies that drive a swift and just transition away from coal, thereby clearing the air while supporting communities needing assistance.

Dennin, Luke R. (ORCID:0000000205405520)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decarbonization of the Electric Power Sector and Implications for Low-Cost Hydrogen Production from Water Electrolysis

Increasing development of wind and solar generation in the power sector can create economic opportunities for the deployment of water electrolyzers that produce hydrogen. Temporal variation in the marginal cost of energy in future decarbonized grids can make it favorable for electrolyzers to dispatchably ramp hydrogen production up and down in response to low- and high-cost times. Using this strategy, low-cost hydrogen production is enabled by electrolyzers that are low-capital cost and tolerant to frequent on/off cycling. Ramping down hydrogen production to a designated turndown ratio can avoid performance degradation caused by on/off cycling by not shutting the electrolyzer completely off. This comes with a slight cost penalty which can be minimized if the turndown ratio is low (i.e., the system ramps down hydrogen production to close to zero). These results suggest that electrolyzers integrated into future power systems are likely to benefit from the ability to ramp operation up and down quickly and operate in a standby mode. This analysis forms a basis for comparative tradeoffs between electrolyzer capital cost, operating strategy, and system durability and demonstrates the importance of considering all three factors in technoeconomic analysis.

capital cost↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Economics of Power System Transitions

Electricity generated by fossil fuels is dispatchable, meaning that generators can be turned on when needed. By contrast, renewable energy tends to be intermittent because of the variability of natural sources such as wind and sunlight. New approaches are needed to solve the challenges to electricity systems posed by the growing share of variable renewable energy (VRE) in these systems. Specifically, how should the physical power system and markets for electricity be structured to deliver electricity at low cost and reflect consumers’ preferences for reliability? Current power systems have largely achieved these two goals through a competitive market for generation based on marginal cost pricing and through mandated overcapacity to ensure 100 percent reliability to consumers. Decarbonization-induced increases in the share of generation from nondispatchable VRE create operational challenges: ensuring 100 percent reliability in a VRE-dominated system will be costly and inefficient. Preferences for reliability are heterogeneous, as some consumers will insist on 100 percent reliable energy, whereas others may be willing to forgo reliability for lower cost. In this article, we discuss ways to design a power system and electricity market that can address this inefficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1979

Optimization of space manufacturing systems

Four separate analyses are detailed: transportation to low earth orbit, orbit-to-orbit optimization, parametric analysis of SPS logistics based on earth and lunar source locations, and an overall program option optimization implemented with linear programming. It is found that smaller vehicles are favored for earth launch, with the current Space Shuttle being right at optimum payload size. Fully reusable launch vehicles represent a savings of 50% over the Space Shuttle; increased reliability with less maintenance could further double the savings. An optimization of orbit-to-orbit propulsion systems using lunar oxygen for propellants shows that ion propulsion is preferable by a 3:1 cost margin over a mass driver reaction engine at optimum values; however, ion engines cannot yet operate in the lower exhaust velocity range where the optimum lies, and total program costs between the two systems are ambiguous. Heavier payloads favor the use of a MDRE. A parametric model of a space manufacturing facility is proposed, and used to analyze recurring costs, total costs, and net present value discounted cash flows. Parameters studied include productivity, effects of discounting, materials source tradeoffs, economic viability of closed-cycle habitats, and effects of varying degrees of nonterrestrial SPS materials needed from earth. Finally, candidate optimal scenarios are chosen, and implemented in a linear program with external constraints in order to arrive at an optimum blend of SPS production strategies in order to maximize returns.

Akin, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Asteroid/comet encounter opportunities for the Galileo VEEGA mission

The opportunity for the Galileo spacecraft to perform a close flyby of an asteroid or distant observation of a comet while on the Venus-Earth-Earth-Gravity-Assist (VEEGA) mission to Jupiter is discussed. More than 120 nominal trajectories were used in a scan program to identify asteroids passing within 30 million km of the spacecraft. A total of 47 asteroids were examined to determine the propellant cost of a close flyby. The possible flybys include a double asteroid flyby with No. 951 in October, 1991, with a flyby of No. 243 in August 1993. The factors considered in the selection of an asteroid include the propellant margin cost of modifying a nominal trajectory to include a close flyby, the size and type of asteroid, and the Jupiter arrival date.

Johannesen, Jennie R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Risk as a Resource: A New Paradigm

In the new NASA, risk management must be developed as a skill to a far greater degree than has existed in the past. Past approaches have produced great successes but at great cost and lengthy schedules. In the future, risk and its component contributors must be re-evaluated. There are three contexts of risk that will be addressed in this paper: risk as a resource, which expands and shifts traditional risk considerations; marginal cost of risk, which addresses the cumulative and time related effects of risk reduction; and an alternative definition or new meaning of success and how it relates to work.

risk management risk success mission risk↗

DOE OSTI2022

Storage Futures Study: Grid Operational Impacts of Widespread Storage Deployment

This report, the fifth in the Storage Futures Study series, uses cost-driven scenarios from the ReEDS model as a starting point to examine the operational impacts of grid-scale storage deployment and relationships between this deployment and the contribution of variable renewable energy. We use commercial production cost modeling software to evaluate hourly operation of five scenarios that reach between 210 gigawatts (GW) and 930 GW of installed storage by 2050. We find that storage plays an important role in these power systems between now and 2050 - by storing the lowest-marginal cost generation (often, overgeneration from solar or wind plants) and generating energy during the highest net load periods of the day and year. Storage helps with the integration of variable renewable energy and by providing an important resource to provide continued reliable power.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Storage Futures Study: Grid Operational Impacts of Widespread Storage Deployment

battery↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Economic Accessibility of CO2 Sequestration through Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in the US

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is one strategy to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. To assess the potential scale and cost of CO2 sequestration from BECCS in the US, this analysis models carbon sequestration net of supply chain emissions and costs of biomass production, delivery, power generation, and CO2 capture and sequestration in saline formations. The analysis includes two biomass supply scenarios (near-term and long-term), two biomass logistics scenarios (conventional and pelletized), and two generation technologies (pulverized combustion and integrated gasification combined cycle). Results show marginal cost per tonne CO2 (accounting for costs of electricity and CO2 emissions of reference power generation scenarios) as a function of CO2 sequestered (simulating capture of up to 90% of total CO2 sequestration potential) and associated spatial distribution of resources and generation locations for the array of scenario options. Under a near-term scenario using up to 206 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 181 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $62 to $137 per tonne CO2; under a long-term scenario using up to 740 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 737 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $42 to $92 per tonne CO2. These estimates of CO2 sequestration potential may be reduced if future competing demand reduces resource availability or may be increased if displaced emissions from conventional power sources are included. Results suggest there are large-scale opportunities to implement BECCS at moderate cost in the US, particularly in the Midwest, Plains States, and Texas.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗