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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Type Ia supernova magnitude step from the local dark matter environment

ABSTRACT Residuals in the Hubble diagram at optical wavelengths and host galaxy stellar mass are observed to correlate in type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) (‘magnitude step’). Among possible progenitor channels for the associated explosions, those based on dark matter (DM) have attracted significant attention, including our recent proposal that ‘normal’ SNe Ia from bare detonations in sub-Chandrasekhar white dwarf stars are triggered by the passage of asteroid-mass primordial black holes (PBHs): the magnitude step could then originate from a brightness dependence on stellar properties, on DM properties, or both. Here, we present a method to estimate the local DM density and velocity dispersion of the environment of SN Ia progenitors. We find a luminosity step of $0.52\pm 0.11\,$ mag corresponding to bins of high versus low DM density in a sample of 222 low-redshift events from The Open Supernova Catalog. We investigate whether the magnitude step can be attributed to local DM properties alone, assuming asteroid-mass PBHs. Given the inverse correlation between SN Ia brightness and PBH mass, an intriguing explanation is a spatially inhomogeneous PBH mass function. If so, a strong mass segregation in the DM density-dependent PBH mass scale is needed to explain the magnitude step. While mass segregation is observed in dense clusters, it is unlikely to be realized on galactic scales. Therefore, if DM consists of asteroid-mass PBHs, the magnitude step is more likely to exist, and dominantly to be attributed to local stellar properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Review of the November 11, 1905 Earthquake: Seismic Intensity Data, Magnitude, and Location Report

The macroseismic location and magnitude of the Shoshone 1905 earthquake has been based on the application of objective and quantitative approaches that produce estimates of earthquake source location and magnitude, and associated uncertainties. The performance of all three approaches applied depends critically on the characteristics of the seismic intensity field. Regional intensity attenuation relations were derived based on a calibration set of earthquakes and then, the procedure was validated using three independent very recent events. The macroseismic epicenter location was determined by either a grid search procedure, the spatial distribution of the sites experiencing the largest intensities, or a combination of both. The macroseismic magnitude estimates are based on the derived regional intensity attenuation relations. There is consistency in the location and magnitude of the November 1905 earthquake as obtained by the three methods. The overlapping region of the 68% bootstrap resampling solutions suggests a reliable epicenter location within 41.550N ? 42.060N and 113.478W ? 112.320W. This region encloses the original Oaks (1992) epicenter location. Macroseismic magnitude estimates range between 5.87 and 6.05.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Application of magnitude estimation scaling to the assessment of subjective loudness response to simulated sonic booms

A laboratory study was conducted for the following reasons: (1) to investigate the application of magnitude estimation scaling for evaluating the subjective loudness of sonic booms; and (2) to compare the relative merits of magnitude estimation and numerical category scaling for sonic boom loudness evaluation. The study was conducted in the NASA LeRC's sonic boom simulator and used a total of 80 test subjects (48 for magnitude estimation and 32 for numerical category scaling). Results demonstrated that magnitude estimation was a practical and effective method for quantifying subjective loudness of sonic booms. When using magnitude estimation, the subjects made valid and consistent ratio judgments of sonic boom loudness irrespective of the frequency of presentation of the standard stimulus. Presentation of the standard as every fourth stimulus was preferred by the subjects and is recommended as the standard presentation frequency to be used in future tests.

S McDaniel↗

NASA NTRS1998

Improved instrumental magnitude prediction expected from version 2 of the NASA SKY2000 master star catalog

The SKY2000 Master Star Catalog (MC), Version 2 and its predecessors have been designed to provide the basic astronomical input data needed for satellite acquisition and attitude determination on NASA spacecraft. Stellar positions and proper motions are the primary MC data required for operations support followed closely by the stellar brightness observed in various standard astronomical passbands. The instrumental red-magnitude prediction subsystem (REDMAG) in the MMSCAT software package computes the expected instrumental color index (CI) [sensor color correction] from an observed astronomical stellar magnitude in the MC and the characteristics of the stellar spectrum, astronomical passband, and sensor sensitivity curve. The computation is more error prone the greater the mismatch of the sensor sensitivity curve characteristics and those of the observed astronomical passbands. This paper presents the preliminary performance analysis of a typical red-sensitive CCDST during acquisition of sensor data from the two Ball CT-601 ST's onboard the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). A comparison is made of relative star positions measured in the ST FOV coordinate system with the expected results computed from the recently released Tycho Catalogue. The comparison is repeated for a group of observed stars with nearby, bright neighbors in order to determine the tracker behavior in the presence of an interfering, near neighbor (NN). The results of this analysis will be used to help define a new photoelectric photometric instrumental sensor magnitude system (S) that is based on several thousand bright star magnitudes observed with the PXTE ST's. This new system will be implemented in Version 2 of the SKY2000 MC to provide improved predicted magnitudes in the mission run catalogs.

Sande, C. B.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Magnitude and sign correlations in heartbeat fluctuations

We propose an approach for analyzing signals with long-range correlations by decomposing the signal increment series into magnitude and sign series and analyzing their scaling properties. We show that signals with identical long-range correlations can exhibit different time organization for the magnitude and sign. We find that the magnitude series relates to the nonlinear properties of the original time series, while the sign series relates to the linear properties. We apply our approach to the heartbeat interval series and find that the magnitude series is long-range correlated, while the sign series is anticorrelated and that both magnitude and sign series may have clinical applications.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using a 1D Radially Symmetric Coda Envelope Model for Robust Moment Magnitude ( M w ) Estimation in Iraq’s Tectonically Diverse Zones

Robust estimation of moment magnitude (M w ) can be challenging for Iraq due to the strong lateral heterogeneity across diverse tectonic zones. We aim to improve moment magnitude estimation by investigating the reliability of using a 1D coda envelope model in diverse tectonic zones of different lateral effects and offer a way forward for reliable estimates of M w for small events that are difficult to waveform model. Iraq comprises two main tectonic zones: (1) the Outer platform, consisting of the northwestern Zagros fold-thrust belt and the Mesopotamian foredeep, and (2) the Inner Arabian platform which is overlain by the Iraqi desert. A simple 1D coda envelope model was used because coda waves have a low sensitivity to the source and path heterogeneity. Three separate coda calibrations were conducted to investigate the robustness of a single 1D calibration to fit the country: Whole-region calibration, Zagros calibration, and Mesopotamia calibration. In the whole-region calibration, we used stations from both the Zagros and Mesopotamia zones. In the two other calibration models, we used only stations that were in those particular zones. Ground-truth reference spectra derived from the coda spectral ratio method were used to constrain high-frequency site terms. There was no drastic difference when comparing the moment magnitudes calculated from the waveform modeling and the three calibration models. The results show that the 1D coda envelope model is a reliable method even for a region with diverse tectonic zones. Therefore, we recommend using the whole-region calibration model for moment magnitude estimation that provides more complete path coverage and avoids biases introduced by path correction failures. The proposed calibration is a fundamental step in updating the comprehensive earthquake catalog and probabilistic seismic hazard assessments for Iraq.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimizing a magnitude-limited spectroscopic training sample for photometric classification of supernovae

ABSTRACT In preparation for photometric classification of transients from the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) we run tests with different training data sets. Using estimates of the depth to which the 4-m Multi-Object Spectroscopic Telescope (4MOST) Time Domain Extragalactic Survey (TiDES) can classify transients, we simulate a magnitude-limited sample reaching rAB ≈ 22.5 mag. We run our simulations with the software snmachine, a photometric classification pipeline using machine learning. The machine-learning algorithms struggle to classify supernovae when the training sample is magnitude limited, in contrast to representative training samples. Classification performance noticeably improves when we combine the magnitude-limited training sample with a simulated realistic sample of faint high-redshift supernovae observed from larger spectroscopic facilities; the algorithms’ range of average area under receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) scores over 10 runs increases from 0.547–0.628 to 0.946–0.969 and purity of the classified sample reaches 95 per cent in all runs for two of the four algorithms. By creating new, artificial light curves using the augmentation software avocado, we achieve a purity in our classified sample of 95 per cent in all 10 runs performed for all machine-learning algorithms considered. We also reach a highest average AUC score of 0.986 with the artificial neural network algorithm. Having ‘true’ faint supernovae to complement our magnitude-limited sample is a crucial requirement in optimization of a 4MOST spectroscopic sample. However, our results are a proof of concept that augmentation is also necessary to achieve the best classification results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Do Machine Learning Approaches Offer Skill Improvement for Short-Term Forecasting of Wind Gust Occurrence and Magnitude?

Abstract Wind gusts, and in particular intense gusts, are societally relevant but extremely challenging to forecast. This study systematically assesses the skill enhancement that can be achieved using artificial neural networks (ANNs) for forecasting of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. Geophysical predictors from the ERA5 reanalysis are used in conjunction with an autoregressive term in regression and ANN models with different predictors, and varying model complexity. Models are derived and assessed for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons for three high passenger volume airports in the United States. Model uncertainty is assessed by deriving models for 1000 different randomly selected training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets. Gust prediction fidelity in independent test samples is critically dependent on inclusion of an autoregressive term. Gust occurrence probabilities derived using five-layer ANNs exhibit consistently higher fidelity than those from regression models and shallower ANNs. Inclusion of the autoregressive term and increasing the number of hidden layers in ANNs from 1 to 5 also improve the model performance for gust magnitudes (lower RMSE, increased correlation, and model standard deviations that more closely approximate observed values). Deeper ANNs (e.g., 20 hidden layers) exhibit higher skill in forecasting strong (17–25.7 m s −1 ) and damaging (≥25.7 m s −1 ) wind gusts. However, such deep networks exhibit evidence of overfitting and still substantially underestimate (by 50%) the frequency of strong and damaging wind gusts at the three airports considered herein. Significance Statement Improved short-term forecasting of wind gusts will enhance aviation safety and logistics and may offer other societal benefits. Here we present a rigorous investigation of the relative skill of models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude that employ different statistical methods. It is shown that artificial neural networks (ANNs) offer considerable skill enhancement over regression methods, particularly for strong and damaging wind gusts. For wind gust magnitudes in particular, application of deeper learning networks (e.g., five or more hidden layers) offers tangible improvements in forecast accuracy. However, deeper networks are vulnerable to overfitting and exhibit substantial variability with the specific training and testing data subset used. Also, even deep ANNs reproduce only half of strong and damaging wind gusts. These results indicate the need for future work to elucidate the dynamical mechanisms of intense wind gusts and advance solutions to their prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detection of supernova magnitude fluctuations induced by large-scale structure

The peculiar velocities of supernovae and their host galaxies are correlated with the large-scale structure of the Universe, and can be used to constrain the growth rate of structure and test the cosmological model. In this work, we measure the correlation statistics of the large-scale structure traced by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Bright Galaxy Survey Data Release 1 sample, and magnitude fluctuations of type Ia supernova from the Pantheon+ compilation across redshifts z < 0.1. We find a detection of the cross-correlation signal between galaxies and type Ia supernova magnitudes. Fitting the normalised growth rate of structure f sigma_8 to the auto- and cross-correlation function measurements we find f sigma_8 = 0.384 +0.094 -0.157, which is consistent with the Planck LambdaCDM model prediction, and indicates that the supernova magnitude fluctuations are induced by peculiar velocities. Using a large ensemble of N-body simulations, we validate our methodology, calibrate the covariance of the measurements, and demonstrate that our results are insensitive to supernova selection effects. We highlight the potential of this methodology for measuring the growth rate of structure, and forecast that the next generation of type Ia supernova surveys will improve f sigma_8 constraints by a further order of magnitude.

Nguyen, A. [Swinburne U., Ctr. Astrophys. Supercom↗

NASA NTRS1972

The methods of paired comparisons and magnitude estimation in judging the noisiness of aircraft

The point of subjective equality in regard to perceived noisiness for each of 14 pairs of aircraft noises was obtained using both magnitude estimation technique and the method of paired comparisons. Both methods gave approximately the same estimates of the points of subjective equality for the noise pairs, and both showed similar correspondence to predictive physical measures. Nevertheless, the two methods appear to have greater face validity to the listeners. However, the magnitude estimation technique appears to be more efficient; for a given level of reliability it requires approximately 50% of the testing time required by the paired comparison method. The functions relating physical intensity to the estimated magnitude of subjective noisiness had slopes ranging from about .61 to .29 for the aircraft noises employed in this study, indicating a required change of about 5 to 10 db for a doubling in subjective magnitude. Some physical units of noise measurement were found to be very predictive (standard errors of estimate as low as 1.9 db) of the subjective judgements of noisiness.

Clarke, F. R.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The visual surface brightness relation and the absolute magnitudes of RR Lyrae stars. II - RR Lyrae and X Arietis

The theoretical surface brightness relation for RR Lyrae stars has been combined with new VR photometry to determine distances, radii, and absolute magnitudes for X Arietis and RR Lyrae. For X Arietis, a pulsational variation in the radius from 5.06 solar radii to 5.96 solar radii, a distance of 495 + or - 50 pc, and an intensity mean absolute magnitude of +0.59 + or - 0.25 is obtained. The corresponding quantities for RR Lyrae are 4.81-5.67 solar radii, 263 + or - 39 pc, and an intensity mean absolute magnitude of +0.61 + or - 0.35. The larger errors quoted for RR Lyrae are due to uncertainties arising from the Blazhko effect. Results are discussed in the context of the dependence of RR Lyrae absolute magnitudes on metal abundance.

Manduca, A.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Distance and absolute magnitudes of the brightest stars in the dwarf galaxy Sextans A

In an attempt to improve present bright star calibration, data were gathered for the brightest red and blue stars and the Cepheids in the Im V dwarf galaxy, Sextans A. On the basis of a magnitude sequence measured to V and B values of about 22 and 23, respectively, the mean magnitudes of the three brightest blue stars are V=17.98 and B=17.88. The three brightest red supergiants have V=18.09 and B=20.14. The periods and magnitudes measured for five Cepheids yield an apparent blue distance modulus of 25.67 + or - 0.2, via the P-L relation, and the mean absolute magnitudes of V=-7.56 and B=-5.53 for the red supergiants provide additional calibration of the brightest red stars as distance indicators. If Sextans A were placed at the distance of the Virgo cluster, it would appear to have a surface brightness of 23.5 mag/sq arcec. This, together with the large angular diameter, would make such a galaxy easily discoverable in the Virgo cluster by means of ground-based surveys.

Sandage, A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

A reevaluation of the 20-micron magnitude system

The 20-micron infrared magnitude system is reexamined by observing primary infrared standards and seven A V stars. The purpose is to determine whether Alpha Lyr has colors consistent with the average of A0 stars and to determine the relative magnitude of the primary standards to that of Alpha Lyr. The data presented are consistent with the interpretation that the spectrum of Alpha Lyr is a blackbody and that it is a viable flux standard at 10 and 20 microns. The absolute flux density scale, the physical quantity of interest, is found to be consistent with an extrapolation of the Alpha Lyr spectrum from the near infrared on the basis of the comparison of stars to Mars and asteroids. Adoption of a 0.0 magnitude for Alpha Lyr requires that the magnitudes given by Morrison and Simon (1973) and by Simon et al. (1972) be revised downward by 0.14 mag.

Tokunaga, A. T.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Examination of two methods for statistical analysis of data with magnitude and direction emphasizing vestibular research applications

When the dependent (or response) variable response variable in an experiment has direction and magnitude, one approach that has been used for statistical analysis involves splitting magnitude and direction and applying univariate statistical techniques to the components. However, such treatment of quantities with direction and magnitude is not justifiable mathematically and can lead to incorrect conclusions about relationships among variables and, as a result, to flawed interpretations. This note discusses a problem with that practice and recommends mathematically correct procedures to be used with dependent variables that have direction and magnitude for 1) computation of mean values, 2) statistical contrasts of and confidence intervals for means, and 3) correlation methods.

Vestibule↗

NASA NTRS2016

Determination of the Meteor Limiting Magnitude

The limiting meteor magnitude of a meteor camera system will depend on the camera hardware and software, sky conditions, and the location of the meteor radiant. Some of these factors are constants for a given meteor camera system, but many change between meteor shower or sporadic source and on both long and short timescales. Since the limiting meteor magnitude ultimately gets used to calculate the limiting meteor mass for a given data set, it is important to have an understanding of these factors and to monitor how they change throughout the night, as a 0.5 magnitude uncertainty in limiting magnitude translates to a uncertainty in limiting mass by a factor of two.

Kingery, A.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Climate change alters flood magnitudes and mechanisms in climatically-diverse headwaters across the northwestern United States

Abstract Flooding caused by high streamflow events poses great risk around the world and is projected to increase under climate change. This paper assesses how climate change will alter high streamflow events by changing both the prevalence of different driving mechanisms (i.e. ‘flood generating processes’) and the magnitude of differently generated floods. We present an analysis of simulated changes in high streamflow events in selected basins in the hydroclimatically diverse Pacific Northwestern United States, classifying the events according to their mechanism. We then compare how the different classes of events respond to changes in climate at the annual scale. In a warmer future, high flow events will be caused less frequently by snowmelt and more frequently by precipitation events. Also, precipitation-driven high flow events are more sensitive to increases in precipitation than are snowmelt-driven high flow events, so the combination of the increase in both frequency and magnitude of precipitation-driven high flow events leads to higher flood likelihood than under each change alone. Our comparison of the results from two emissions pathways shows that a reduction in global emissions will limit the increase in magnitude and prevalence of these precipitation-driven events.

S Chegwidden, Oriana (ORCID:0000000313763835)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Variation of sign and magnitude of the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction of a ferromagnet with an oxide interface

We demonstrate that both the magnitude and sign of the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction can be tuned by modifying the type and thickness of an oxide layer adjacent to a ferromagnet. In this work, we focus on Ti/Cu/Co 90 Fe 10 /Ta($d_{\text{Ta}}$)/Oxide/Ta structures, where the Ta interlayer thickness $d_{\text{Ta}}$ ranged from 0 nm to 3 nm, followed by an exposure to oxygen and “Oxide” can mean CoFeO x and/or TaO x . We used Brillouin light scattering spectroscopy to directly determine the volume-averaged Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction from the nonreciprocity of the spin-wave frequency. The magnitude of the interfacial Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction, $D_{\text{DMI}}$, ranges from – 0.17 to +0.09(±0.02) mJ/m 2 , clearly showing a change in both sign and magnitude, with an increase of Ta interlayer thickness. The modification of the oxide interface allows us to systematically change the hybridization of the 3$\textit{d}$–CoFe orbitals from 3$\textit{d}$–5$\textit{d}$ to 3$\textit{d}$–2$\textit{p}$ and analyze the influence on the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction. Importantly, we can vary the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction while maintaining a relatively small value of the damping parameter.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2021

Local-Distance Seismic Event Relocation and Relative Magnitude Estimation, Applications to Mining Related Seismicity in the Powder River Basin, Wyoming

Recent efforts to characterize small ( M w < 3 ) seismic events at local distances have become more important because of the increased observation of human-triggered and induced seismicity and the need to advance nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities. The signals generated by low-magnitude seismic sources necessitate the use of nearby short-period observations, which are sensitive to local geological heterogeneity. Local to near-regional distance ( < 300 km ) surface and shear waves can dominate short-period observations from small, shallow seismic sources. In this work, we utilize these observations to estimate precise, relative locations and magnitudes of ~ 700 industrial mining events in Wyoming, using nearly 360,000 observations. The precise, relative location estimates (with formal location uncertainty estimates of less than 1 km) collapse a diffuse collection of mining events into discrete clusters associated with individual blasting operations. We also invert the cross-correlation amplitudes to estimate precise, relative moment magnitude estimates, which help validate and identify disparities in the event sizes reported by regional network catalogs. Joint use of multiple phases allows for the inclusion of more seismic events due to the increase in the number of observations. In some cases, using a single phase allowed us to relocate only 50% of the original reported seismic events within a cluster. Combining shear- and surface-wave phases increased the number of events to above 90% of the original events, allowing us to characterize a broader range of event sizes, source to station distances, and event distributions. This analysis takes a step toward making a fuller characterization of small industrial seismic events observed at local distances.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗