Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “low intensity fire”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

Land-use history, fire regime, and large-mammal herbivory affect deer-preferred plant diversity in longleaf pine woodlands

Since ecological systems often experience multiple disturbances, understanding changes in important ecological interactions, such as plant-herbivore interactions, may require studies capable of disentangling the unique and interactive effects of multiple forms of disturbance. For example, understanding how mammalian herbivores affect plant communities may require understanding how widespread past disturbances, such as agricultural land use, interact with contemporary disturbances, such as prescribed fire. Here, we tested if past agricultural land use and contemporary fire regime modified the effects of mammalian herbivory on focal plant communities by measuring the richness of plant species preferred by deer at 26 longleaf pine woodlands containing paired open and large-mammal exclusion plots. Land-use history significantly affected the community composition of deer-preferred species, and focal species were 8.19 times more likely to be present in post-agricultural sites than non-agricultural sites. Large-mammal herbivory only affected plant species richness in woodlands with low fire frequencies wherein focal species were on average 2.23 times more likely to be present in exclusion plots than open plots. These results suggest that past and present disturbances can mediate contemporary plant-animal interactions and may explain spatial patterns in the intensity of large-mammal herbivory. Our findings also suggest that common management practices, such as use of prescribed burns, may indirectly promote plant species richness by reducing deer herbivory.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Heating effects on pyrogenic organic matter mass loss and temperature in a sand matrix in a lab setting from 2022

This dataset contains data associated with the preprint “A laboratory method for simulating the effects of subsequent fires on pyrogenic organic matter at different exposure depths in a sand matrix” (https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.07.30.605814), which has been accepted for publication in the International Journal of Wildland Fire. The dataset was generated to investigate the effects of subsequent fires on preexisting pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM) at different soil depths. Specifically, we designed a laboratory method to simulate soil heating from above, applying realistic heat flux profiles (High, Low, Control) derived from jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) log burns. Using a cone calorimeter, these profiles were applied to buried jack pine PyOM (produced at 350°C) in a sand matrix pyrocosm to examine PyOM mass loss at different depths (surface, 1 cm, 5 cm). Each treatment (e.g., High heat flux at 1 cm depth) was applied once to five replicates in a pyrocosm.The dataset includes mass loss fraction of PyOM and time-series temperature profiles (measured with type K thermocouples). Additionally, calibration datasets for high and low heat flux profiles are provided, including programmed heat flux profile data and three sets of calibration results. All datasets are in .csv format and were analyzed in R using code found at https://github.com/MengmengLuo/Reburning-pyrogenic-organic-matter-A-laboratory-method-for-dosing-dynamic-heat-fluxes-from-above. This dataset supports research on PyOM transformations during subsequent fires, and methodological advancements in simulating soil heating. It can be used to explore fire-induced PyOM alterations across different fire intensities and soil depths.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intense formation of secondary ultrafine particles from Amazonian vegetation fires and their invigoration of deep clouds and precipitation

New particle formation (NPF) in fire smoke is thought to be unlikely due to large condensation and coagulation sinks that scavenge molecular clusters. We analyze aircraft measurements over the Amazon and find that fires significantly enhance NPF and ultrafine particle (UFP < 50 nm diameter) numbers compared to background conditions, contrary to previous understanding. We identify that the nucleation of dimethylamine with sulfuric acid, which is aided by the formation of extremely low volatility organics in biomass-burning smoke, can overcome the large condensation and coagulation sinks and explain aircraft observations. We show that freshly formed clusters rapidly grow to UFP sizes through biomass-burning secondary organic aerosol formation, leading to a 10-fold increase in UFP number concentrations. Here, we find a contrasting effect of UFPs on deep convective clouds compared to the larger particles from primary emissions for the case investigated here. UFPs intensify the deep convective clouds and precipitation due to increased condensational heating, while larger particles delay and reduce precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Elevated Forest Canopy Loss After Wildfires in Moist and Cool Forests in the Pacific Northwest

Wildfire frequency, intensity, and rate of spread are increasing across the Western U.S, resulting in more severe ecosystem impacts. Significant tree mortality can occur years after fire events, but this has received little attention compared to the immediate tree loss during a fire. We overlapped forest cover loss data with burn severity maps in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and quantified the total and delayed forest canopy loss after fires. We found that wildfires resulted in total canopy loss fraction (CLF) of 84%, 53%, and 22% within 3 years in areas burned at high, moderate, and low severity, respectively. The delayed canopy loss accounted for approximately 1/3, 1/2, and 2/3 of the total canopy loss for high, moderate, and low severity burns. Delayed canopy loss was greater in moist and cool areas than in dry and warm areas, likely because tree species in wetter environments were less adapted to survive when fires did occur. Across all forests, delayed CLF doubled as temperature increased from the climatological mean to a hot anomaly and tripled as vapor pressure deficit increased from a wet anomaly to a dry anomaly. Fire impacts on forest ecosystems are likely to intensify under future climate scenarios as wildfires expand into areas that historically experienced infrequent fires. The impacts can also be exacerbated by more frequent compound extreme events, such as droughts, heatwaves, and fires. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted forest management strategies, particularly in mesic forests, to mitigate future fire impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From the Fire: A Deeper Look at the Phoenix Stream

We use 6 yr of data from the Dark Energy Survey to perform a detailed photometric characterization of the Phoenix stellar stream, a 15° long, thin, dynamically cold, low-metallicity stellar system in the Southern Hemisphere. We use natural splines, a nonparametric modeling technique, to simultaneously fit the stream track, width, and linear density. This updated stream model allows us to improve measurements of the heliocentric distance (17.4 ± 0.1 (stat.) ±0.8 (sys.) kpc) and distance gradient (−0.009 ± 0.006 kpc deg$^{−1}$) of Phoenix, which corresponds to a small change of 0.13 ± 0.09 kpc in heliocentric distance along the length of the stream. We measure linear intensity variations on degree scales, as well as deviations in the stream track on ∼2° scales, suggesting that the stream may have been disturbed during its formation and/or evolution. We recover three peaks and one gap in linear intensity along with fluctuations in the stream track. Compared to other thin streams, the Phoenix stream shows more fluctuations and, consequently, the study of Phoenix offers a unique perspective on gravitational perturbations of stellar streams. We discuss possible sources of perturbations to Phoenix, including baryonic structures in the Galaxy and dark matter subhalos.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Long-range transported North American wildfire aerosols observed in marine boundary layer of eastern North Atlantic

Wildfire is a major source of biomass burning aerosols, which greatly impact Earth climate. Tree species in North America (NA) boreal forests can support high-intensity crown fires, resulting in elevated injection height and longer lifetime (on the order of months) of the wildfire aerosols. Given the long lifetime, the properties of aged NA wildfire aerosols are required to understand and quantify their effects on radiation and climate. Here we present comprehensive characterization of climatically relevant properties, including optical properties and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activities of aged NA wildfire aerosols, emitted from the record-breaking Canadian wildfires in August 2017. Despite the extreme injection height of ~12 km, some of the wildfire plumes descended into the marine boundary layer in the eastern North Atlantic over a period of ~2 weeks, owing to the dry intrusions behind mid-latitude cyclones. The aged wildfire aerosols have high single scattering albedos at 529 nm (ω 529 ; 0.92–0.95) while low absorption Ångström exponents (Å abs ) at 464 nm/648 nm (0.7–0.9). In comparison, Å abs of fresh/slightly aged ones are typically 1.4–3.5. This low Å abs 529 and low Å abs ~110 nm diameter) with thick non-absorbing coatings. The accelerated descent of the wildfire plume also led to strong increase of CCN concentration at the supersaturation levels representative of marine low clouds. The hygroscopicity parameter, κ CCN , of the aged wildfire aerosols varies from 0.2 to 0.4, substantially lower than that of background marine boundary layer aerosols. However, the high fraction of particles with large diameter (i.e., within accumulation size ranges, ~100–250 nm) compensates for the low values of κ, and as a result, the aged NA wildfire aerosols contribute more efficiently to CCN population. These results provide direct evidence that the long-range transported NA wildfires can strongly influence CCN concentration in remote marine boundary layer, therefore the radiative properties of marine low clouds. Given the expected increases of NA wildfire intensity and frequency and regular occurrence of dry intrusion following mid-latitude cyclones, the influence of NA wildfire aerosols on CCN and clouds in remote marine environment need to be further examined.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Decarbonization Potential of Global Fired Clay Brick Production

Fired clay bricks (FCBs) are a dominant building material globally due to their low cost and simplicity of production, especially in low- and middle-income countries. With a projected rising housing demand, commensurate growth in brick demand is anticipated, the production of which could result in significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Robust models are needed to estimate brick demand and emissions to systematically address decarbonization pathways. Few sources report production values; hence, we present two novel proxy models: (i) a consumption prediction model, relying on country-specific clay extraction data, dynamic building stock modeling, and average material intensity use allowing for projections to 2050; and (ii) a GHG emissions model, using literature-based data and production technology-specific inputs. Based on these models, the current global FCB consumption is estimated as 2.18 Gt annually, resulting in approximately 500 million tCO2e (1% of current global GHG emissions). If unaddressed, this fraction could increase to 3.5-5% in 2050 considering a moderate SSP 2-4.5 climate change mitigation scenario. Consequently, we explored three potential decarbonization pathways: (i) improving energy efficiency; (ii) shifting production to best practices; and (iii) replacing half of FCB demand with hollow concrete blocks, resulting in 27%, 49%, and 51% reduction in GHG emissions, respectively.

Olsson, Josefine A↗

Preliminary techno-economic assessment of gas switching reforming (GSR) of natural gas for pure hydrogen production and power generation with integrated CO2 capture

The increasing demand for hydrogen and the CO2 intensity of natural gas (NG) reforming motivate the development of low-carbon-emission hydrogen production technologies. Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) with integrated CO2 capture, a technology based on Chemical Looping Reforming (CLR), has been experimentally proven and shows potential for scale-up. In this study, select oxygen carriers (OC) (NiO/Al2O3, Fe2O3-CeO2/Al2O3, and magnetite) were tested in methane steam reforming in a fixed bed reactor to determine their relative reactivities under relevant conditions for GSR (800 °C, 7 bar total pressure). Process models were then developed to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of GSR for hydrogen production (GSR-H2) and a combined cycle (GSR-CC) in which high-purity H2 is fired in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Operating at 10 bar and 1100 °C and with the additional recovery steps implemented increased H2 production by ∼ 30% and improved efficiency relative to prior studies. For GSR-H2, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is 1.61–1.64 $/kg-H2, competitive with a reference SMR case, though operating and maintenance costs are higher due to increased electricity demand. GSR-CC has a significantly higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than its reference NGCC (natural gas combined cycle) plant, suggesting it is less competitive; however, increasing production scale could make it more attractive. Life-cycle results for GSR-H2 indicate NG consumption drives ∼ 75% of total global warming impacts (∼2.3 kg CO2 eq/kg H2). An environmental, health, and safety screening suggests iron-based carriers are comparatively safer, whereas NiO may pose greater risks. Overall, GSR-H2 is a scalable, competitive option for hydrogen production using nickel and non-nickel OC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

High power edge-cum-surface emitting terahertz laser arrays phased locked by vacuum guided plasmon waves

Terahertz semiconductor quantum-cascade lasers (QCLs) are widely implemented with metallic cavities that support low-loss plasmonic optical modes at long wavelengths. However, resonant optical modes in such cavities suffer from poor radiative characteristics due to their subwavelength transverse dimensions. Consequently, single-mode terahertz QCLs with metallic cavities and large (>100 mW) output power have only been realized in the surface-emitting configuration that affords a large radiating surface. Here, we demonstrate a method to enhance radiative outcoupling from such plasmonic lasers for high-power emission in the edge-emitting (end-fire or longitudinal) direction. Single-sided plasmon waves propagating in vacuum are resonantly excited in surrounding medium of metallic cavities with the QCL semiconductor medium. The vacuum guided plasmon waves with a large wavefront phase-lock multiple metallic cavities longitudinally, which leads to intense radiation in multiple directions, including that in the longitudinal direction in a narrow single-lobed beam. The multicavity array radiates predominantly in a single spectral mode. A peak-power output of 260 mW and a slope efficiency of 303 mW/A are measured for the end-fire beam from a 3.3 THz QCL operating at 54 K in a Stirling cooler. Finally, single-mode operation and lithographic tuning across a bandwidth of ~150 GHz are demonstrated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparative assessment of new oxygen carrier materials for gas switching reforming of natural gas: Techno-economics assessment, life cycle analysis, and experimental insights

The increasing demand for hydrogen and the CO 2 intensity of natural gas (NG) reforming motivate the development of low-carbon-emission hydrogen production technologies. Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) with integrated CO 2 capture, a technology based on Chemical Looping Reforming (CLR), has been experimentally proven and shows potential for scale-up. In this study, select oxygen carriers (OC) (NiO/Al 2 O 3 , Fe 2 O 3 -CeO 2 /Al 2 O 3 , and magnetite) were tested in methane steam reforming in a fixed bed reactor to determine their relative reactivities under relevant conditions for GSR (800 °C, 7 bar total pressure). Process models were then developed to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of GSR for hydrogen production (GSR-H 2 ) and a combined cycle (GSR-CC) in which high-purity H 2 is fired in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Operating at 10 bar and 1100 °C and with the additional recovery steps implemented increased H 2 production by ∼ 30% and improved efficiency relative to prior studies. For GSR-H 2 , the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is 1.61–1.64 $/kg-H 2 , competitive with a reference SMR case, though operating and maintenance costs are higher due to increased electricity demand. GSR-CC has a significantly higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than its reference NGCC (natural gas combined cycle) plant, suggesting it is less competitive; however, increasing production scale could make it more attractive. Life-cycle results for GSR-H 2 indicate NG consumption drives ∼ 75% of total global warming impacts (∼2.3 kg CO 2 eq/kg H 2 ). An environmental, health, and safety screening suggests iron-based carriers are comparatively safer, whereas NiO may pose greater risks. Overall, GSR-H 2 is a scalable, competitive option for hydrogen production using nickel and non-nickel OC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Zeolite Membrane Reactor for Pre-Combustion Carbon Dioxide Capture (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Water-gas shift (WGS) reaction followed by carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) separation is a critical step in the integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) process for fossil-fuel-fired electrical power generation with CO 2 capture. To intensify the IGCC process hydrogen-permselective zeolite membrane reactor offers promise to replace the conventional energy-intensive fixed-bed reactors and solvent-based CO 2 capture units. The objectives of this project were to develop a bench-scale zeolite membrane reactor (total membrane area: 932 cm 2 for a 21-tube membrane bundle) for the water-gas-shift reaction of raw syngas from an oxygen-blown coal-gasifier for H 2 production with simultaneous CO 2 separation at the capability of about 2 kilograms H 2 per day (equivalent to 2 kW IGCC power plant) and to demonstrate significant progress toward achieving overall performance goal of 90% CO 2 capture rate with 95% CO 2 purity at the cost of electricity 30% less than the baseline carbon capture approaches. This report summarizes results obtained in this project on scaling up the zeolite membrane reactor by a factor of 200 in membrane area, tests of the bench-scale zeolite membrane reactor for the water-gas-shift reaction at high temperature and high-pressure, and techno-economic analysis of the integration of the zeolite membrane reactor in IGCC power plant for the electrical generation with CO 2 capture. With effective pore modification by catalytic cracking deposition of MDES (methyldiethoxysilane), fabrication of MFI-type zeolite membranes was successfully scaled-up from a lab-scale disk type to bench-scale multiple-tube bundles on low-cost alumina supports. A Co-Mo based sour shift catalyst was evaluated and used in the zeolite membrane reactors for water-gas-shift reaction. The reaction kinetic and gas-permeation equations were developed and employed in mathematic models to guide/predict experiments/performance of zeolite membrane reactors for water-gas shift reaction. Multiple-tube zeolite membrane bundles and reactors were designed, fabricated and tested for gas separation and water-gas-shift reactions with real raw syngas from a coal-fired gasifier operated at high temperature and pressure. The zeolite membrane reactors demonstrated good long-term thermal and chemical stability and constant H 2 permeance (>300 GPU) together with a Knudsen selectivity (~4.7) for H 2 over CO 2 in the field test (cumulative time >28 hours) with high-sulfur coal-derived syngas. The zeolite-membrane-reactor integrated IGCC process was designed using the performance experimentally measured by the University of Cincinnati team with a single-tube zeolite membrane reactor that offers a CO conversion >98% with more than 90% of CO 2 and H 2 captured. With the above integrative approaches, a techno-economic analysis for a cost-benefit comparison was performed to uncover features that determine the power output, capital expenditure, operating expenditure, cost of electricity and cost of CO 2 capture in a 550-MW zeolite-membrane-reactor integrated IGCC process. The integration of the zeolite membrane reactor in IGCC could provide a significant reduction of 80% and 27% in the power consumption for Selexol™ Acid Gas Removal and CO 2 compression, respectively, which lowers the total auxiliary power consumption by 12.5%. However, the low pressure required at permeate stream for maintaining the driving force of hydrogen permeation through the zeolite membrane costs a huge power in permeate compressor, compensating the power consumption reduction achieved with the membrane reactor. Thus, for coal-fired IGCC for electricity generation with 90% CO 2 captured, the integration of the membrane reactor could provide a CO conversion ~99% and a significant drop in cost-of-electricity using zeolite membrane with H 2 permeance >600 GPU and the H 2 /CO 2 selectivity over 70.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Preliminary Techno-Economic Assessment of Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) of Natural Gas for Pure Hydrogen Production and Power Generation with Integrated CO2 Capture

The increasing demand for hydrogen and the CO2 intensity of natural gas (NG) reforming motivate the development of low-carbon-emission hydrogen production technologies. Gas Switching Reforming (GSR) is an advanced auto-thermal reforming technology that produces hydrogen or syngas from natural gas. It integrates inherent CO2 capture by utilizing a specialized oxygen carrier in a single fluidized bed reactor, eliminating the need for complex, energy-intensive post-combustion separation. GSR technology builds upon Chemical Looping Reforming (CLR), an experimentally proven technology with strong potential for scaling up. In this study, select oxygen carriers (OC) (NiO/Al2O3, Fe2O3-CeO2/Al2O3, and magnetite) were tested in methane steam reforming in a fixed bed reactor to determine their relative reactivities under relevant conditions for GSR (800 °C, 7 bar total pressure). Process models were then developed to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of GSR for hydrogen production (GSR-H₂) and a combined cycle (GSR-CC) in which high-purity H₂ is fired in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Operating at 10 bar and 1100 °C and with the additional recovery steps implemented increased H₂ production by ~30% and improved efficiency relative to prior studies. For GSR-H₂, the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) is 1.61–1.64 $/kg-H₂, competitive with a reference SMR case, though operating and maintenance costs are higher due to increased electricity demand. GSR-CC has a significantly higher levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) than its reference NGCC (natural gas combined cycle) plant, suggesting it is less competitive; however, increasing production scale could make it more attractive. Life-cycle results for GSR-H2 indicate NG consumption drives ~75% of total global warming impacts (~2.3 kg CO2 eq/kg H2). An environmental, health, and safety screening suggests iron-based carriers are comparatively safer, whereas NiO may pose greater risks. Overall, GSR-H2 is a scalable, competitive option for hydrogen production using nickel and non-nickel OC.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Rapid Patterning and Advanced Device Structures for Low Cost Manufacturable Crystalline Si IBC Cells

Recent record efficiency Si cells have had an interdigitated back contact (IBC) design where both positive and negative contacts are fabricated on the back side of the Si wafer. Many industry groups have investigated IBC cells but used photolithography to pattern the rear contacts although it is considered impractical for low cost, high volume manufacturing. Alternative patterning methods using lasers and mechanical masking have been utilized in fabrication of patterned regions in IBC Si solar cells to replace photolithography. Another exciting advance in Si solar cell technology has been replacing the high temperature diffusion of doped regions inside the crystalline Si wafer with low temperature deposition of very thin layers of doped amorphous hydrogenated Si (a-Si:H) on the Si wafer. This is called a Si heterojunction (HJ) device. The a-Si:H provides excellent passivation of surface defects and has produced the highest open circuit voltages (VOC) of any Si solar cell device structure. The Institute of Energy Conversion (IEC) demonstrated the first IBC-HJ solar cell combining these two strategies in 2007 and has fabricated IBC-HJ cells with 20% efficiency using three photolithography steps. Despite the demonstrated efficiency potential of this device by industry groups (>26%) there is no commercial production because of the challenges of patterning and processing the structure in an industrial environment. Our work sought to address that challenge. The objective of this 3 year project was to develop the processing for the IBC-HJ Si solar cell using lasers for patterning and contact formation instead of photolithography. Laser patterning enables rapid, contactless manufacturing of patterned regions. We intensively studied laser fired contacts, laser patterning of the a-Si multi-layer stacks and metal layers and the use of plasma shadow masks. After an exhaustive focus in the first year on the laser fired emitter (LFE) and contact (LFC), we were unable to achieve VOC greater than 660 mV, compared to the 720 mV required to meet our milestones. We discovered that an additional issue with our original IBC structure was the presence of an inversion layer at the back surface connecting the p and n regions which reduced the VOC and fill factor (FF). We developed innovative methods for characterizing the inversion layer. These two limitations in the original design lead to development of a new IBC-HJ process sequence and device structure which we called Plasma Masked Laser Processed (PMLP). It retained the original high efficiency features including manufacturability. The LFC was replaced with a standard n-type a-Si HJ contact. The inversion layer was eliminated by replacing the previous p-type stack in the gap with an n-type or SiN stack. The PMLP used laser ablation of a multi-layer a-Si stack followed by chemical etching to open the n-contact. It required deposition of a patterned stack through a mask in the plasma deposition chamber. This turned out to be a source of significant problems due to inevitable unwanted deposition ‘leakage’ under the mask. This formed a blocking contact on the emitter which significantly reduced Voc and FF. Several iterations in PMLP device structure and chemical etching steps resulted in a large improvements, e.g. the efficiency increasing from 3 to 15% and Voc from 450 to 660 mV but they were unable to completely eliminate it. The best IBC-HJ device we fabricated had only 15% efficiency. For perspective, our standard FHJ devices had 20% efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The hazard components of representative key risks. The physical climate perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II in order to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks, expected to become severe as a consequence of the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions, exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems, and responses through (mal)adaptation measures. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs by holistically assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, their treatment cannot always organize such assessment according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes, often times having to extrapolate the big-picture evolution of risk from either qualitative effects of “low” medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C). In this study we offer as systematic a representation as possible – given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group 1 (WGI) supplemented when needed by more recent literature. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels to the extent possible. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with global average temperature change has been assessed. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - the link to increasing global temperatures can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice-sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different levels of warming remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems when these changes happen in conjunction with these systems’ conditions of exposure and vulnerability, and in lack of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in an often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future possible evolution which represents an important component – if never the only one – of the potential future evolution of risk severity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DETECTING FIRE WITH MACHINE LEARNING-ENABLED VISUAL MONITORING FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ENVIRONMENTS

Nuclear power plants are experiencing significant cost challenges to remain competitive with other energy-generation utilities. Unlike other industries, the cost of operation and maintenance activities is mostly attributed to workforce costs. To mitigate this, nuclear power plant stakeholders are increasingly interested in the development and deployment of machine learning methods to potentially automate or augment manually intensive tasks to reduce costs, especially for monitoring activities. One monitoring function that is visually demanding and that can occur frequently to meet the requirements of a fire protection program is visually monitoring an area for fire occurrence. Currently, fire watch activities consist of a worker physically stationed at a given location with the sole responsibility of observing a given area to ensure a fire is detected and mitigated promptly. This effort focused on the development and evaluation of a suitable deep convolutional neural network to classify individual video frames at a sub-second frequency for the occurrence of “fire” and “no fire” in varying industrial environments similar to nuclear power plants. It is believed that a trained neural network model could be integrated with existing facility video surveillance camera feeds to generate alerts when fire inferences occur in individual frames captured at sub-second temporal resolutions. Extensive effort was dedicated to identifying and curating suitable imagery training data representing varying environments and scene settings with and without flame features to maximize generalization in nuclear power plant environments. The data collection effort resulted in the aggregation of a large, labeled image library exceeding 12,000 images to support model training for diverse industrial environments. A deep neural network model incorporating parallel multi-scale capabilities was developed and trained to support accurate image-based detection of flame incidents of varying sizes and spectral feature properties within heterogeneous scenes. Analysis results show that the trained model can achieve high inference accuracy despite heterogeneous scene environments and components. Testing accuracy exceeded 95.0 percent with very low false positive and false negative inferences.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Systematically tracking the hourly progression of large wildfires using GOES satellite observations

Abstract. In the western United States, prolonged drought, a warming climate, and historical fuel buildup have contributed to larger and more intense wildfires as well as to longer fire seasons. As these costly wildfires become more common, new tools and methods are essential for improving our understanding of the evolution of fires and how extreme weather conditions, including heat waves, windstorms, droughts, and varying levels of active-fire suppression, influence fire spread. Here, we develop the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)-Observed Fire Event Representation (GOFER) algorithm to derive the hourly fire progression of large wildfires and create a product of hourly fire perimeters, active-fire lines, and fire spread rates. Using GOES-East and GOES-West geostationary satellite detections of active fires, we test the GOFER algorithm on 28 large wildfires in California from 2019 to 2021. The GOFER algorithm includes parameter optimizations for defining the burned-to-unburned boundary and correcting for the parallax effect from elevated terrain. We evaluate GOFER perimeters using 12 h data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)-derived Fire Event Data Suite (FEDS) and final fire perimeters from the California's Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP). Although the GOES imagery used to derive GOFER has a coarser resolution (2 km at the Equator), the final fire perimeters from GOFER correspond reasonably well to those obtained from FRAP, with a mean Intersection-over-Union (IoU) of 0.77, in comparison to 0.83 between FEDS and FRAP; the IoU indicates the area of overlap over the area of the union relative to the reference perimeters, in which 0 is no agreement and 1 is perfect agreement. GOFER fills a key temporal gap present in other fire tracking products that rely on low-Earth-orbit imagery, where perimeters are available at intervals of 12 h or longer or at ad hoc intervals from aircraft overflights. This is particularly relevant when a fire spreads rapidly, such as at maximum hourly spread rates of over 5 km h−1. Our GOFER algorithm for deriving the hourly fire progression using GOES can be applied to large wildfires across North and South America and reveals considerable variability in the rates of fire spread on diurnal timescales. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8327264, Liu et al., 2023).

Geology↗

Invasive Plant Species Management Plan for Los Alamos National Laboratory (Rev.3)

Native species are plants and animals that continually occupy a natural range without direct or indirect introduction and/or care by humans. They are adapted to the environmental conditions and processes of the ecosystem in which they reside. A species introduced into a novel ecosystem can either exploit that ecosystem and thrive or be unable to survive in that ecosystem (Hobbs et al. 2006). Alien or non-native species are species that are intentionally or accidentally introduced into a novel ecosystem and are capable of living and propagating within the physical parameters of that ecosystem. Invasive species is a species that is non-native (or alien) to the ecosystem under consideration and a noxious species are those whose introduction causes or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm. The term invasive species is applicable to plants and animals alike; however, this invasive species management plan currently focuses on invasive vegetation. Invasive plant species are usually capable of rapid colonization of disturbed ground, such as after a change in wildfire regime intensity and frequency (Reilly et al. 2020) or anthropogenic ground disturbance (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992). Climate change facilitates the spread and establishment of many alien species and creates new opportunities for them to become invasive (Turbelin and Catford 2021). As climate change impacts increase in the coming decades, we may see in an increase in invasive species establishment. See a list of definitions of terms pertinent to this document in Appendix A: Definitions. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) hosts populations of non-native and invasive species all typical of the northern New Mexico region (Martin 2004; NMDA 2020). By implementing an invasive species management plan, LANL will have readily accessible management strategies for invasive species that are found on-site. The benefits of managing invasive species include a decrease in wildland fire risks, an increase in soil productivity, an increase in (productive or beneficial) wildlife habitat, an increase in water quantity and quality, and the restoration of impacted areas (Burke and Grime 1996; Hobbs and Huenneke 1992; D’Antonio and Hobbie 2005; MacDougall et al. 2013; Reilly et al. 2020). The aforementioned benefits from invasive species management directly enable the LANL mission by ensuring compliance requirements are met and site-wide programs, such as the Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan, are supported for a mutually beneficial outcome. An example for the LANL site specifically, controlling non-native annual plant species, for example, could reduce the costs associated with stabilizing soils during the stormwater pollution prevention compliance process. Roadway and utility right-of-way areas are another place where an integrated vegetation management strategy would promote low growing perennial plants in a way that is mutually beneficial to habitat and the institution through lowered maintenance costs. There is also an economic benefit to managing invasive species. In one nationwide study, invasive plants had an estimated impact cost of $190.45 billion (Fantel-Lepczyk et al. 2022). Investing in preventative measures and surveillance could help to offset future control and management costs of invasive species that have the potential to become established. The State of New Mexico has developed plant species lists and recommendations through the New Mexico Department of Agriculture’s Noxious Weeds Management Act, Article 7D (NM Statute § 76-7D-4 2021); however, effective invasive species management must rely on local knowledge of the site and region. Los Alamos County (LAC) has already compiled a target invasive plant species list and species-specific management objectives (Martin 2004). Therefore, the New Mexico Noxious Weed List and the LAC invasive plant species list, as well as management objectives from those documents, are integrated into LANL’s invasive plant species management plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing impacts of selective logging on water, energy, and carbon budgets and ecosystem dynamics in Amazon forests using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator

Abstract. Tropical forest degradation from logging, fire, and fragmentation not only alters carbon stocks and carbon fluxes, but also impacts physical land surface properties such as albedo and roughness length. Such impacts are poorly quantified to date due to difficulties in accessing and maintaining observational infrastructures, as well as the lack of proper modeling tools for capturing the interactions among biophysical properties, ecosystem demography, canopy structure, and biogeochemical cycling in tropical forests. As a first step to address these limitations, we implemented a selective logging module into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) by mimicking the ecological, biophysical, and biogeochemical processes following a logging event. The model can specify the timing and aerial extent of logging events, splitting the logged forest patch into disturbed and intact patches; determine the survivorship of cohorts in the disturbed patch; and modifying the biomass and necromass (total mass of coarse woody debris and litter) pools following logging. We parameterized the logging module to reproduce a selective logging experiment at the Tapajós National Forest in Brazil and benchmarked model outputs against available field measurements. Our results suggest that the model permits the coexistence of early and late successional functional types and realistically characterizes the seasonality of water and carbon fluxes and stocks, the forest structure and composition, and the ecosystem succession following disturbance. However, the current version of FATES overestimates water stress in the dry season and therefore fails to capture seasonal variation in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Moreover, we observed a bias towards low stem density and leaf area when compared to observations, suggesting that improvements are needed in both carbon allocation and establishment of trees. The effects of logging were assessed by different logging scenarios to represent reduced impact and conventional logging practices, both with high and low logging intensities. The model simulations suggest that in comparison to old-growth forests the logged forests rapidly recover water and energy fluxes in 1 to 3 years. In contrast, the recovery times for carbon stocks, forest structure, and composition are more than 30 years depending on logging practices and intensity. This study lays the foundation to simulate land use change and forest degradation in FATES, which will be an effective tool to directly represent forest management practices and regeneration in the context of Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗