Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “long memory”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Satellite Gravimetry Improves Seasonal Streamflow Forecast Initialization in Africa

West Africa is one of the poorest regions in the world and highly vulnerable to extreme hydrological events due to the lack of reliable monitoring and forecast systems. For the first time, we demonstrate that initial hydrological conditions informed by satellite-based terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates improve seasonal streamflow forecasts. TWS variability detected by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites is assimilated into a land surface model during 2003–2016 and used to initialize 6-month hindcasts (i.e., forecasts of past events) during West Africa's wet seasons. We find that GRACE data assimilation (DA) generally increases groundwater and soil moisture storage in the region, resulting in increased evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff. Total runoff is particularly lower at the headwaters of the Niger River, positively impacting streamflow simulations and hindcast initializations. Compared to simulations without GRACE-DA, hindcasts are notably improved at locations draining from large basin areas, in particular, over the Niger River basin, which is consistent with GRACE's coarse spatial resolution. The long memory of groundwater and deep soil moisture, two main TWS components updated by GRACE-DA, is reflected in prolonged improvements in the streamflow hindcasts. Model accuracy at Niamey, Niger, the most populated city where streamflow observations are available, improved up to 33% during the flood season. These new findings directly contribute to ongoing developments in food security, flood potential forecast, and water-related disaster warning systems for Africa.

Augusto Getirana↗
NASA NTRS2023

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimal strategies for optical quantum memories using long-lived noble-gas spins

Nuclear spins of noble gases exhibit exceptionally long coherence times and can potentially serve as a long-lived storage medium for quantum information. We analyze and compare the performance of two mechanisms for mapping the quantum state of light onto the collective spin state of noble gases. The first mechanism utilizes collisional exchange with the electronic spin state of metastable noble-gas atoms, while the second relies on spin-exchange collisions with ground-state alkali-metal atoms. We describe the operation of an optical quantum memory relying on these two mechanisms using a compact model and study strategies that optimize the memory storage efficiency. Through numerical simulations, we identify optimal sequences for storing optical signals with different signal bandwidths and electronic spin relaxation rates. This work highlights the qualitative difference between the two approaches for using noble gases as long-lived quantum memories at noncryogenic conditions and outlines the regimes in which they are expected to be efficient.

atomic ensemble↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inductive predictions of hydrologic events using a Long Short-Term Memory network and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool

We present machine learning methods to predict hydrologic features such as streamflow and soil moisture from spatially and temporally varying hydrological and meteorological data. Here, we used a temporal reduction technique to reduce computation and memory requirements and trained a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to predict soil moisture and streamflow over multiple watersheds. We show LSTM networks can be trained in a fraction of the time required by complex process-based and attention-based models such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and GeoMAN without sacrificing accuracy. We also demonstrate that outside data - sourced from a watershed other than the target - can be used to train LSTM to comparable or even superior prediction accuracy. The success of LSTM in such spatially-inductive settings shows hydrologic features can be predicted with minimal prior knowledge of the watershed in question. Finally, we make all methodologies of this work publicly available as an end-to-end software pipeline that facilitates rapid prototyping of hydrologic learners.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

One-Step Ahead Prediction of Thermal Mixing Tee Sensors with Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) Neural Networks

High-temperature advanced reactors under development, such as sodium fast reactors (SFR) and molten salt cooled reactors (MSCR), are expected to offer lower levelized cost of energy (LCOE) compared to existing light water reactor (LWR’s). In the existing light water reactors (LWR’s), operation and maintenance (O&M) expenses constitute the largest fraction of the total operating cost. Some of the O&M costs are related maintenance of sensors which can fail due to exposure to harsh environment in a reactor. The O&M costs of Advanced Reactor (AR)’s are expected to constitute a significant fraction of the total cost as well, because of high temperature and radiation level in AR are likely to cause material fatigue and premature failure of sensors and components. The O&M costs in AR’s could be reduced through integration of advanced informatics of performance-related sensors into a digital twin designed for reactor monitoring. For example, machine learning (ML) could be employed for real-time validation and correction of performance-related sensors, and reducing the number of performance-related physical sensor units through virtual sensing. As part of the effort, we investigate real-time validation of thermal hydraulic sensors through one-step ahead forecasting of sensor values using long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNN). The sensors are installed in a flow loop containing a thermal mixing tee, which is a common experimental model to study thermal fatigue in a thermal hydraulic loop. In addition, nonlinear transients generated in a thermal mixing tee constitute a good challenge data set for training and validation of ML algorithms. Sensors in this study include thermocouples, flow meters, and optical fibers for distributed temperature sensing. In one experiment, measurement data sets were obtained for a loop was filled with water, and in another experiment, measurements were performed on a loop filled with liquid metal Galinstan. We have also conducted preliminary investigation of one-step ahead prediction of fiber optics-based distributed temperature sensing with LSTM networks. In predicting fiber-based temperature measurements, we treated each gauge pitch of the fiber as an independent sensor. Accuracy of one-step ahead forecasting was estimated by calculating root mean square error (RMSE) for the test segment of time series of each sensor. RMSE’s for temperature sensors in water loop were, for the most part, lower than for the same sensors in Galinstan loop. The RMSE’s for flow meters were similar for both loops. The RMSE’s for distributed temperature measured with the fiber optic sensor were similar to those of the point sensors. Results of this study demonstrated the capability of LSTM one-step ahead forecasting with RMSE comparable to uncertainty in sensor measurements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Erbium quantum memory platform with long optical coherence via back-end-of-line deposition on foundry-fabricated photonics

Realizing scalable quantum interconnects necessitates the integration of solid-state quantum memories with foundry photonics processes. While prior photonic integration efforts have relied upon specialized, laboratory-scale fabrication techniques, this work demonstrates the monolithic integration of a quantum memory platform with low-loss foundry photonic circuits via back-end-of-line deposition. We deposited thin films of titanium dioxide (Ti⁢O 2 ) doped with erbium (Er) onto silicon nitride nanophotonic waveguides and studied Er optical coherence at subkelvin temperatures with photon echo techniques. Furthermore, we suppressed optical dephasing through ex-situ oxygen annealing and optimized measurement conditions, which yielded an optical coherence time of 64 μ⁢s (a 5-kHz homogeneous linewidth) and slow spectral diffusion of 27 kHz over 4 ms, results that are comparable to state-of-the-art Er nanophotonic devices. Combined with second-long electron spin lifetimes and demonstrated electrical control of Er emission, our findings establish Er:Ti⁢O 2 on foundry photonics as a manufacturable platform for ensemble and single-ion quantum memories.

Electro-optic effects↗
NASA NTRS2022

Non-Volatile, Low Power, and High Density SiC Memory For Future Venus Missions

Long lived memory would transform Venus landers & missions. Venus durable memory demonstrated in earlier HOTTech with impractically high power and low bit capacity. This project seeks to develop and demonstrate the world’s first Venus-durable low power memory device (Non-Volatile Random Access Memory (NVRAM) to enhance extended Venus surface missions.

silicon carbide↗
DOE OSTI2022

Technical note: Using long short-term memory models to fill data gaps in hydrological monitoring networks

Abstract. Quantifying the spatiotemporal dynamics in subsurface hydrological flows over a long time window usually employs a network of monitoring wells. However, such observations are often spatially sparse with potential temporal gaps due to poor quality or instrument failure. In this study, we explore the ability of recurrent neural networks to fill gaps in a spatially distributed time-series dataset. We use a well network that monitors the dynamic and heterogeneous hydrologic exchanges between the Columbia River and its adjacent groundwater aquifer at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford site. This 10-year-long dataset contains hourly temperature, specific conductance, and groundwater table elevation measurements from 42 wells with gaps of various lengths. We employ a long short-term memory (LSTM) model to capture the temporal variations in the observed system behaviors needed for gap filling. The performance of the LSTM-based gap-filling method was evaluated against a traditional autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method in terms of error statistics and accuracy in capturing the temporal patterns of river corridor wells with various dynamics signatures. Our study demonstrates that the ARIMA models yield better average error statistics, although they tend to have larger errors during time windows with abrupt changes or high-frequency (daily and subdaily) variations. The LSTM-based models excel in capturing both high-frequency and low-frequency (monthly and seasonal) dynamics. However, the inclusion of high-frequency fluctuations may also lead to overly dynamic predictions in time windows that lack such fluctuations. The LSTM can take advantage of the spatial information from neighboring wells to improve the gap-filling accuracy, especially for long gaps in system states that vary at subdaily scales. While LSTM models require substantial training data and have limited extrapolation power beyond the conditions represented in the training data, they afford great flexibility to account for the spatial correlations, temporal correlations, and nonlinearity in data without a priori assumptions. Thus, LSTMs provide effective alternatives to fill in data gaps in spatially distributed time-series observations characterized by multiple dominant frequencies of variability, which are essential for advancing our understanding of dynamic complex systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Division of attention as a function of the number of steps, visual shifts, and memory load

The effects on divided attention of visual shifts and long-term memory retrieval during a monitoring task are considered. A concurrent vigilance task was standardized under all experimental conditions. The results show that subjects can perform nearly perfectly on all of the time-shared tasks if long-term memory retrieval is not required for monitoring. With the requirement of memory retrieval, however, there was a large decrease in accuracy for all of the time-shared activities. It was concluded that the attentional demand of longterm memory retrieval is appreciable (even for a well-learned motor sequence), and thus memory retrieval results in a sizable reduction in the capability of subjects to divide their attention. A selected bibliography on the divided attention literature is provided.

Chechile, R. A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long Short-Term Memory Networks for Pattern Recognition of Synthetical Complete Earthquake Catalog

Exploring the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquake activity, especially earthquake migration of fault systems, can greatly to understand the basic mechanics of earthquakes and the assessment of earthquake risk. By establishing a three-dimensional strike-slip fault model, to derive the stress response and fault slip along the fault under regional stress conditions. Our study helps to create a long-term, complete earthquake catalog. We modelled Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks for pattern recognition of the synthetical earthquake catalog. The performance of the models was compared using the mean-square error (MSE). Our results showed clearly the application of LSTM showed a meaningful result of 0.08% in the MSE values. Our best model can predict the time and magnitude of the earthquakes with a magnitude greater than Mw = 6.5 with a similar clustering period. These results showed conclusively that applying LSTM in a spatiotemporal series prediction provides a potential application in the study of earthquake mechanics and forecasting of major earthquake events.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Study of Mini-Batch Size on a Long Short-Term Memory Network for In-situ Sensing of Core-to-shell Ratio of Microencapsulated Phase Change Materials

Microencapsulated phase change materials are being studied for applications for thermal energy storage in concentrated solar fields. During fabrication, the thickness of the encapsulation cannot be readily measured for real-time control. Therefore, a machine learning network, specifically a Long Short-Term Memory network, is being developed to estimate the ratio of the shell radius to core radius based on a one second temperature history. The mini-batch size determines how often the algorithm weights are updated during network training, and shuffle indicates whether the training data is shuffled during training. A general factorial design is used to analyze the effects of varying mini-batch size and shuffle, along with the core-to-shell ratio, on the RMSE of the response from the Long Short-Term Memory network. It was found that the network performed better for smaller core to shell ratios (less than 0.6) and had the lowest RMSE when the minibatch size was 128. The minimum RMSE found was 0.00501.

Shannon, Rebecca↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving the Estimation of the Atmospheric Water Vapor Pressure Using Interpretable Long Short-Term Memory Networks: Dataset, Python code, and trained models

Atmospheric water vapor pressure is an essential meteorological control on land surface and hydrologic processes. It is not as frequently observed as other meteorologic conditions, but often inferred through the August–Roche–Magnus formula by simply assuming dew point and daily minimum temperatures are equivalent or by empirically correlating the two temperatures using an aridity correction. The performance of both methods varies considerably across different regions and during different time periods; obtaining consistently accurate estimates across space and time remains a great challenge. We applied an interpretable Long Short-Term Memory (iLSTM) network conditioned on static, location specific attributes to estimate daily vapor pressure for 83 FLUXNET sites in the United States and Canada. This data package includes all raw data of the 83 FLUXNET sites, input data for model training/validation/test, trained models and results, and python codes for the manuscript "Improving the Estimation of the Atmospheric Water Vapor Pressure Using an Interpretable Long Short-term Memory Network". Specifically, it consists of five parts. - First, "1_Daymet_data_83sites.zip" includes raw data downloaded from Daymet for the 83 sites used in the paper according to their longitude and latitude, in which vapor pressure is used. It also includes a pre-processed CSV data file combining all data from the 83 sites which is specifically used for the paper. - Second, "2_Fluxnet2015_data_83sites.zip" includes raw half hourly data of the 83 sites downloaded from FLUXNET2015 data portal, pre-processed daily data of the 83 sites, a CSV file including combined pre-processed daily data of the 83 sites, and a CSV file including the information (site ID, site name, latitude, longitude, data available period) of the 83 sites. - Third, "3_MODIS_LAI_data_83sites_raw.zip" includes raw leaf area index (LAI) data downloaded from the AppEEARs data portal. - Fourth, "4_Scripts.zip" includes all scripts related to model training and post-processing of a trained model, and a jupyter notebook showing an example for model post-processing. Two typo errors in files titled "run2get_args.py" and "postprocess.py" were corrected on March 27, 2024 to avoid confusions. - Finally, "Trained_models_and_results.zip" includes three folders and three files with suffix ".npy", and each folder corresponds to one file with suffix ".npy" with the same title. Each of the three folders include all trained models associated with one iLSTM model configuration (35 models for each configuration, details are described in the paper). Each file with suffix ".npy" includes the post-processed results of the corresponding 35 models under one iLSTM model configuration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗