Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “linear extrapolation method”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Cosmological forecasts for future galaxy surveys with the linear point standard ruler: Toward consistent BAO analyses far from a fiducial cosmology

The linear point (LP) standard ruler was identified as the basis of a purely geometric method for exploiting the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO). The LP exploits the BAO feature imprinted in the galaxy two-point correlation function to measure cosmological distances independent of any specific cosmological model. We forecast the expected precision of future and ongoing spectroscopic galaxy surveys to measure distances leveraging the linear point. We investigate the cosmological implications of our forecasted results. We focus in particular on a relevant working example: the detection of the late-time cosmic acceleration independent of other cosmological probes. Further, our findings show that, even within the Λ⁢CDM standard cosmological paradigm, estimated distances need to be reliable over a very wide parameter range in order to realize their maximum utility. This is particularly relevant if we aim to properly characterize cosmological tensions. The LP is a promising candidate approach to achieve this reliability. In contrast, widely employed procedures in BAO analysis estimate distances keeping fixed cosmological parameters to fiducial values close to cosmic-microwave-background constraints in flat-Λ⁢CDM. It is unclear whether they are purely geometric methods. Moreover, they rely on untested extrapolations to explore the parameter space away from those fiducial flat-Λ⁢CDM values. We recommend that all BAO methodologies be validated across the full range of models and parameters over which their results are quoted, first by means of linear predictions and then N -body simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Investigation of the mechanical and microstructural evolution of a Cu based bulk metallic glass during ion irradiation

Ion irradiation and annealing experiments were performed on Cu 60 Zr 20 Hf 10 Ti 10 bulk metallic glass (BMG) specimens to investigate their irradiation- and temperature-induced microstructural and mechanical property evolution. For the ion irradiations, samples were exposed to 9 MeV Ni 3+ ions to a midrange (~1.2 μm depth) dose of 10 displacements per atom (dpa) at temperatures ranging from room temperature to 360 °C (the corresponding peak dose at ~2.8 μm depth was ~25 dpa). Bulk X-ray diffraction (XRD) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) characterization revealed that the alloy did not crystallize during irradiation up to 290 °C but did partially crystallize at 360 °C. XRD analysis revealed that the crystallization which occurred in the sample irradiated at 360 °C was caused by thermal effects instead of irradiation displacement damage. Subsequent Rietveld refinement analysis of the XRD measurements revealed the presence of two distinct crystal phases, namely a CuTiZr hexagonal structure belonging to the P63/mmc space group and a CuTi tetragonal structure belonging to the P4/mmm space group. Nanoindentation experiments revealed that no pronounced hardness changes occurred in the specimens irradiated at room temperature and 290°C, although significant hardening was observed in the sample irradiated at 360 °C. The significant increase in the hardness at 360°C was ascribed to thermally induced partial crystallization of the alloy instead of the ion irradiation. In general, the results of the nanoindentation experiments and XRD characterization suggest that although the Cu BMG exhibits good stability during irradiation at temperatures up to 290 °C it is not suitable for irradiation environments where the temperature is 360 °C for extended periods of time. The Lam and Chong extrapolation method, which has been used to study the indentation size effect (ISE) in amorphous alloys, was employed to quantify how irradiation and temperature affect this type of behavior in the BMG. However, the poor linear fitting of the indentation hardness data by this model indicate that a new ISE model is likely needed to quantify indentation hardening in BMGs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep material network via a quilting strategy: visualization for explainability and recursive training for improved accuracy

Recent developments integrating micromechanics and neural networks offer promising paths for rapid predictions of the response of heterogeneous materials with similar accuracy as direct numerical simulations. The deep material network is one such approaches, featuring a multi-layer network and micromechanics building blocks trained on anisotropic linear elastic properties. Once trained, the network acts as a reduced-order model, which can extrapolate the material’s behavior to more general constitutive laws, including nonlinear behaviors, without the need to be retrained. However, current training methods initialize network parameters randomly, incurring inevitable training and calibration errors. Here, we introduce a way to visualize the network parameters as an analogous unit cell and use this visualization to “quilt” patches of shallower networks to initialize deeper networks for a recursive training strategy. The result is an improvement in the accuracy and calibration performance of the network and an intuitive visual representation of the network for better explainability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Supercharged Octane Number and a Supercharged Octane Index

Gasoline knock resistance is characterized by the Research and Motor Octane Number (RON and MON), which are rated on the CFR octane rating engine at naturally aspirated conditions. However, modern automotive downsized boosted spark ignition (SI) engines generally operate at higher cylinder pressures and lower temperatures relative to the RON and MON tests. Using the naturally aspirated RON and MON ratings, the octane index (OI) characterizes the knock resistance of gasolines under boosted operation by linearly extrapolating into boosted “beyond RON” conditions via RON, MON, and a linear regression K factor. Using OI solely based on naturally aspirated RON and MON tests to extrapolate into boosted conditions can lead to significant errors in predicting boosted knock resistance between gasolines due to non-linear changes in autoignition and knocking characteristics with increasing pressure conditions. Here, a new “Supercharged Octane Number” (SON) method was developed on the CFR engine at increased intake pressures, which improved the correlation to boosted knock-limited automotive SI engine data over RON for several surrogate fuels and gasolines, including five “Co-Optima” RON 98 fuels and an E10 regular grade gasoline. Furthermore, the conventional OI was extended to a newly introduced Supercharged Octane Index (OI S ) based on SON and RON, which significantly improved the correlation to fuel knock resistance measurements from modern boosted SI engine knock-limited spark advance tests. This demonstrated the first proof of concept of a SON and OI S to better characterize a fuel’s knock resistance in modern boosted SI engines.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning a molecular Hamiltonian for predicting electron dynamics

We develop a computational method to learn a molecular Hamiltonian matrix from matrix-valued time series of the electron density. As we demonstrate for three small molecules, the resulting Hamiltonians can be used for electron density evolution, producing highly accurate results even when propagating 1,000 time steps beyond the training data. As a more rigorous test, we use the learned Hamiltonians to simulate electron dynamics in the presence of an applied electric field, extrapolating to a problem that is beyond the field-free training data. We find that the resulting electron dynamics predicted by our learned Hamiltonian are in close quantitative agreement with the ground truth. Our method relies on combining a reduced-dimensional, linear statistical model of the Hamiltonian with a time-discretization of the quantum Liouville equation within time-dependent Hartree Fock theory. In conclusion, we train the model using a least-squares solver, avoiding numerous, CPU-intensive optimization steps. For both field-free and field-on problems, we quantify training and propagation errors, highlighting areas for future development.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Comparative analysis of microstructure and reactive sites for nuclear graphite IG-110 and graphite matrix A3

Nuclear graphite and graphite matrix are both high-purity, fine-grain, graphitized materials designed for use in Fluoride-Salt Cooled High Temperature Reactors (FHRs), High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs), and Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). Their ability to chemisorb radioisotopes (such as tritium) and their chemical stability is dependent upon the density of reactive carbon sites (RCS), which varies among grades of graphite and changes with neutron irradiation. While nuclear graphites have been extensively characterized, much less data is available for graphite matrix. The current study performs a comparative analysis of IG-110 nuclear graphite and A3 graphite matrix, by X-ray Diffraction (XRD), Raman, and H 2 uptake at 700 °C with H 2 partial pressure range of 300 Pa and 22 kPa. At 10 kPa, the RCS occupied by H 2 uptake per number of carbon atoms at the edge of a crystallite, H/C edge , is 600(300) appm for IG-110 and 2300(200) appm for A3. Prior empirical studies for nuclear graphite establish a linear relationship between H/C and C edge /C and degree of graphitization. The present study shows that these correlations no longer hold when extrapolating to graphite matrix; the type of defects and the defect density at the crystallite surface are different between IG-110 and A3 due to differences in raw materials and manufacturing method.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

ELSI — An open infrastructure for electronic structure solvers

Routine applications of electronic structure theory to molecules and periodic systems need to compute the electron density from given Hamiltonian and, in case of non-orthogonal basis sets, overlap matrices. System sizes can range from few to thousands or, in some examples, millions of atoms. Different discretization schemes (basis sets) and different system geometries (finite non-periodic vs. infinite periodic boundary conditions) yield matrices with different structures. The ELectronic Structure Infrastructure (ELSI) project provides an open-source software interface to facilitate the implementation and optimal use of high-performance solver libraries covering cubic scaling eigensolvers, linear scaling density-matrix-based algorithms, and other reduced scaling methods in between. In this paper, we present recent improvements and developments inside ELSI, mainly covering (1) new solvers connected to the interface, (2) matrix layout and communication adapted for parallel calculations of periodic and/or spin-polarized systems, (3) routines for density matrix extrapolation in geometry optimization and molecular dynamics calculations, and (4) general utilities such as parallel matrix I/O and JSON output. The ELSI interface has been integrated into four electronic structure code projects (DFTB+, DGDFT, FHI-aims, SIESTA), allowing us to rigorously benchmark the performance of the solvers on an equal footing. Based on results of a systematic set of large-scale benchmarks performed with Kohn–Sham density-functional theory and density-functional tight-binding theory, we identify factors that strongly affect the efficiency of the solvers, and propose a decision layer that assists with the solver selection process. As a result, we describe a reverse communication interface encoding matrix-free iterative solver strategies that are amenable, e.g., for use with planewave basis sets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Battery Life Models

Predictive battery life models are commonly utilized to extrapolate degradation trends observed during accelerated aging tests for simulation of degradation in real-world applications. Thus, fitting accelerated aging data as accurately as possible and with low uncertainty is crucial for making believable projections of battery lifetime, but it is challenging to identify algebraic expressions that accurately fit multivariate degradation trends. A review of models published in literature reveal some common expressions for fitting calendar aging data, which is only dependent on temperature and state-of-charge, but no consistency across many models for fitting cycle aging data, indicating the need for a statistically rigorous data driven approach for developing empirical models. This talk will describe a machine-learning assisted method for identification of predictive battery life models utilizing bilevel optimization and symbolic regression. Bilevel optimization with cross-validation is used to statistically determine cell- and stress-dependent model parameters, while symbolic regression identifies both linear and multiplicative candidate expressions to predict stress-dependent degradation rates by selecting low-order subsets of features from a generated feature library. Because model expressions are identified empirically, it is crucial to ensure resulting models behave according to physical expectations, so the stability of models for interpolation or extrapolation is interrogated qualitatively through simulation and quantitatively through cross-validation and uncertainty quantification via bootstrap resampling. This model identification approach substantially improves upon models identified purely using expert judgement in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty. Model simulation and validation is then conducted by deriving a state-equation form of the predictive model, enabling simulation of battery aging under dynamic stresses. This enables validation of the predictive battery model on lab-based tests with varying conditions or on drive-cycle or application-cycle testing protocols. Parameter uncertainty can be carried forward into model simulation, giving lifetime estimates and confidence windows for cell- or system-level lifetime. The financial impact of battery model uncertainty can be estimated by incorporating uncertainty into a technoeconomic model.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Evaluation of Spectral Methods for Robust Reactor Noise Estimation

Reactor noise analysis provides a noninvasive means to determine neutron kinetic parameters from stochastic fluctuations in detector signals. However, standard cross-power spectral density (CPSD) analyses can be sensitive to numerical processing choices, which may introduce processing-dependent systematic shifts in estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant (α) and limit reproducibility. This study uses a hybrid multitaper–Welch spectral estimator to analyze subcritical noise measurements from a fast-spectrum critical assembly. The decay constant α was extracted using three frequency-domain methods: the CPSD, the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), and the generalized magnitude-squared coherence (GMSC). These coherence-based estimators normalize detector auto-spectral structure and are expected to reduce the sensitivity of fitted α values to processing parameters. A Sobol global sensitivity analysis identified which numerical inputs most strongly influence the fitted values of α. All estimators produced a linear dependence of α on inverse count rate, with delayed-critical extrapolations near 1.7 × 10 4 s −1 , in agreement within 8% of MCNP6.3 KOPTS benchmark calculations. Sensitivity results show that while the CPSD depends on both time-bin width and taper selection, the MSC and GMSC are dominated by time-bin width alone, indicating reduced parameter coupling and greater robustness to processing variability. These findings demonstrate the feasibility and practical value of coherence-based spectral estimators for extracting α from reactor noise and support their broader application to multi-detector and irregular datasets in subcritical system characterization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the Tl 2H 2 potential energy surface: A comparative analysis with group 13 systems and experiment

Abstract Thallium chemistry is experiencing unprecedented importance. Therefore, it is valuable to characterize some of the simplest thallium compounds. Stationary points along the singlet and triplet TlH potential energy surface have been characterized. Stationary point geometries were optimized with the CCSD(T)/aug‐cc‐pwCVQZ‐PP method. Harmonic vibrational frequencies were computed at the same level of theory while anharmonic vibrational frequencies were computed at the CCSD(T)/aug‐cc‐pwCVTZ‐PP level of theory. Final energetics were obtained with the CCSDT(Q) method. Basis sets up to augmented quintuple‐zeta cardinality (aug‐cc‐pwCV5Z‐PP) were employed to obtain energetics in order to extrapolate to the complete basis set limits using the focal point approach. Zero‐point vibrational energy corrections were appended to the extrapolated energies in order to determine relative energies at 0 K. It was found that the planar dibridged isomer lies lowest in energy while the linear structure lies highest in energy. The results were compared to other group 13 MH (M = B, Al, Ga, In, and Tl) theoretical studies and some interesting variations are found. With respect to experiment, incompatibilities exist.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ab Initio Many Body Quantum Embedding and Local Correlation in Crystalline Materials using Interpolative Separable Density Fitting

We present an efficient implementation of ab initio many-body quantum embedding and local correlation methods for infinite periodic systems through translational symmetry adapted interpolative separable density fitting, an approach which reduces the scaling of the calculations to only linear with the number of k-points. Employing this methodology, we compute correlated ground-state coupled cluster energies within density matrix embedding and local natural orbital correlation frameworks for both weakly and strongly correlated solids, using up to 1000 k-points. By extrapolating the local correlation domains and k-point sampling we further obtain estimates of the full coupled cluster with singles, doubles, and perturbative triples ground-state energies in the thermodynamic limit.

Chemical Physics (physics.chem-ph)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Collaborative Research: Properties and Dynamics of the Shallow Crust (Final Report)

Ground motions recorded at one location are often extrapolated to nearby regions within a given radius. Here, we explore the appropriateness of spatial extrapolation using data from seven small aperture seismic network deployments in southern California. Six of these deployments are linear arrays of 4-13 stations, and one is a 2D array of 13 stations at Pinyon Flats Observatory. The spatial footprint array diameters are 3 km or less, and each array was operational for a year or more. From our base catalog (M2.5+ earthquakes; 4038 events; September 2010 - June 2023), automated methods remove temporally overprinted waveforms from nearby events (< 5 km) in quick succession (< 5 min) and data with nonviable waveforms. These 200 samples per second data are filtered at 0.5-25 Hz and must have signal-tonoise ratios (SNRs) of 2.5+. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) are derived individually from the maximum absolute values of each of the 3-component waveforms (vertical, northsouth, and east-west). Five of the seven arrays traverse the San Jacinto fault, and two do not. Ground motion observations are compared with theoretical estimates from Abrahamson et al., 2014. On average, arrays deployed within and across fault zones consistently record ground motions above theoretical expectations, whereas off-fault arrays record ground motions at or slightly below theoretical expectations. We attribute these differences to site conditions because these trends prevail for the full data suites. For each network and each individual channel, the coefficient of variation indicates that the standard deviations are ~30±6% of the mean. Exploring relative ground motion contributions from all three channels (ternary plots), as expected, most data show that vertical ground motions are attenuated compared to horizontal ones. However, this is not always the case for RA array data, where vertical motions can be ~2-3 times larger than horizontal motions for select events near Cahuilla, CA. These anomalously high vertical motions are focal mechanism-related. These results suggest that ternary plots created using only a small amount of data can be used as a data quality metric and a tool to find anomalous features in three-component data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of data driven low-rank matrix factorization for accelerated solutions of the Vlasov equation

Low-rank methods have shown success in accelerating simulations of a collisionless plasma described by the Vlasov equation, but still rely on computationally costly linear algebra every time step. We propose a data-driven factorization method using artificial neural networks, specifically with convolutional layer architecture, that trains on existing simulation data. At inference time, the model outputs a low-rank decomposition of the distribution field of the charged particles, and we demonstrate that this step is faster than the standard linear algebra technique. Numerical experiments show that the method achieves comparable reconstruction accuracy for interpolation tasks, generalizing to unseen test data in a manner beyond just memorizing training data; patterns in factorization also inherently followed the same numerical trend as those within algebraic methods (e.g., truncated singular-value decomposition). However, when training on the first 70% of a time-series data and testing on the remaining 30%, the method fails to meaningfully extrapolate. Despite this limiting result, the technique may have benefits for simulations in a statistical steady-state or otherwise showing temporal stability. These results suggest that while the model offers a computationally efficient alternative for datasets with temporal stability, its current formulation is best suited for interpolation rather than for predicting future states in time-evolving systems. This study thus lays the groundwork for further refinement of neural network-based approaches to low-rank matrix factorization in high-dimensional plasma simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Projective multiscale time-integration for electrostatic particle-in-cell methods

The simulation of problems in kinetic plasma physics is often challenging due to strongly coupled phenomena across multiple scales. In this work, we propose a wavelet-based coarse-grained numerical scheme, based on the framework of Equation-Free Projective Integration, for a kinetic plasma system modeled by the Vlasov–Poisson equations. A kinetic particle-in-cell (PIC) code is used to simulate the meso scale dynamics for short time intervals. This allows the extrapolation over long time-steps of the behavior of a coarse wavelet-based discretization of the system. To validate the approach and the underlying concepts, we perform two 1D1V numerical experiments: nonlinear propagation and steepening of an ion wave, and the expansion of a plasma slab in vacuum. The direct comparisons to resolved PIC simulations show good agreement. We show that the speedup of the projective integration scheme over the full particle scheme scales linearly with the system size, demonstrating efficiency while taking into account fully kinetic, non-Maxwellian effects. This suggests that the approach is potentially interesting for kinetic plasma problems with a large separation of scales.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum error mitigation by layerwise Richardson extrapolation

A widely used method for mitigating errors in noisy quantum computers is Richardson extrapolation, a technique in which the overall effect of noise on the estimation of quantum expectation values is captured by a single parameter that, after being scaled to larger values, is eventually extrapolated to the zero-noise limit. We generalize this approach by introducing layerwise Richardson extrapolation (LRE), an error mitigation protocol in which the noise of different individual layers (or larger chunks of the circuit) is amplified and the associated expectation values are linearly combined to estimate the zero-noise limit. The coefficients of the linear combination are analytically obtained from the theory of multivariate Lagrange interpolation. LRE leverages the flexible configurational space of layerwise unitary folding, allowing for a more nuanced mitigation of errors by treating the noise level of each layer of the quantum circuit as an independent variable. Furthermore, we provide numerical simulations demonstrating scenarios where LRE achieves superior performance compared to traditional (single-variable) Richardson extrapolation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temperature Uncertainty Modeling with Proxy Structural Data as Geostatistical Constraints for Well Siting: An Example Applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aim of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations . The data used to support the modeling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modeling, the latter considered "secondary" data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally likely temperature models (i.e., realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: Vprior and entropy. Vprior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e., linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g., dilation versus distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, Vprior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with highe r probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comp arison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

3D temperature modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Temperature uncertainty modelling with proxy structural data as geostatistical constraints for well siting: an example applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural geology information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aims of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations. The data used to support the modelling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modelling (distance to fault, distance to fault intersections and terminations, Coulomb stress change and dilation tendency), the latter considered ‘secondary’ data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally-likely temperature models (i.e. realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: V prior and entropy. V prior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because of the dipping ellipsoid shape created and that the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e. linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g. dilation v. distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, V prior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with higher probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comparison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the effect of composition on nuclear waste immobilization glasses’ durability by nonparametric machine learning

Abstract Ensuring the long-term chemical durability of glasses is critical for nuclear waste immobilization operations. Durable glasses usually undergo qualification for disposal based on their response to standardized tests such as the product consistency test or the vapor hydration test (VHT). The VHT uses elevated temperature and water vapor to accelerate glass alteration and the formation of secondary phases. Understanding the relationship between glass composition and VHT response is of fundamental and practical interest. However, this relationship is complex, non-linear, and sometimes fairly variable, posing challenges in identifying the distinct effect of individual oxides on VHT response. Here, we leverage a dataset comprising 654 Hanford low-activity waste (LAW) glasses across a wide compositional envelope and employ various machine learning techniques to explore this relationship. We find that Gaussian process regression (GPR), a nonparametric regression method, yields the highest predictive accuracy. By utilizing the trained model, we discern the influence of each oxide on the glasses’ VHT response. Moreover, we discuss the trade-off between underfitting and overfitting for extrapolating the material performance in the context of sparse and heterogeneous datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗