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Results for “likelihood ratio test”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Data-directed search for new physics based on symmetries of the SM

We propose exploiting symmetries (exact or approximate) of the Standard Model (SM) to search for physics Beyond the Standard Model (BSM) using the data-directed paradigm (DDP). Symmetries are very powerful because they provide two samples that can be compared without requiring simulation. Focusing on the data, exclusive selections which exhibit significant asymmetry can be identified efficiently and marked for further study. Using a simple and generic test statistic which compares two matrices already provides good sensitivity, only slightly worse than that of the profile likelihood ratio test statistic which relies on the exact knowledge of the signal shape. This can be exploited for rapidly scanning large portions of the measured data, in an attempt to identify regions of interest. We also demonstrate that weakly supervised Neural Networks could be used for this purpose as well.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing a supernova’s standing accretion shock instability with neutrinos and gravitational waves

Here, we perform a novel multi-messenger analysis for the identification and parameter estimation of the Standing Accretion Shock Instability (SASI) in a core collapse supernova with neutrino and gravitational wave (GW) signals. In the neutrino channel, this method performs a likelihood ratio test for the presence of SASI in the frequency domain. For gravitational wave signals we process an event with a modified constrained likelihood method. Using simulated supernova signals, the properties of the Hyper-Kamiokande neutrino detector, and O3 LIGO Interferometric data, we produce the two-dimensional probability density distribution (PDF) of the SASI activity indicator and calculate the probability of detection P D as well as the false identification probability P FI . We discuss the probability to establish the presence of the SASI as a function of the source distance in each observational channel, as well as jointly. Compared to a single-messenger approach, the joint analysis results in P D (at P FI = 0.1) of SASI activities that is larger by up to ≈ 40% for a distance to the supernova of 5 kpc. We also discuss how accurately the frequency and duration of the SASI activity can be estimated in each channel separately. Our methodology is suitable for implementation in a realistic data analysis and a multi-messenger setting.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hypothesis tests on Rayleigh wave radiation pattern shapes: a theoretical assessment of idealized source screening

SUMMARY Shallow seismic sources excite Rayleigh wave ground motion with azimuthally dependent radiation patterns. We place binary hypothesis tests on theoretical models of such radiation patterns to screen cylindrically symmetric sources (like explosions) from non-symmetric sources (like non-vertical dip-slip or non-VDS faults). These models for data include sources with several unknown parameters, contaminated by Gaussian noise and embedded in a layered half-space. The generalized maximum likelihood ratio tests that we derive from these data models produce screening statistics and decision rules that depend on measured, noisy ground motion at discrete sensor locations. We explicitly quantify how the screening power of these statistics increase with the size of any dip-slip and strike-slip components of the source, relative to noise (faulting signal strength) and how they vary with network geometry. As applications of our theory, we apply these tests to (1) find optimal sensor locations that maximize the probability of screening non-circular radiation patterns and (2) invert for the largest non-VDS faulting signal that could be mistakenly attributed to an explosion with damage, at a particular attribution probability. Finally, we quantify how certain errors that are sourced by opening cracks increase screening rate errors. While such theoretical solutions are ideal and require future validation, they remain important in underground explosion monitoring scenarios because they provide fundamental physical limits on the discrimination power of tests that screen explosive from non-VDS faulting sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1998

Role of metabolic gases in bubble formation during hypobaric exposures

Our hypothesis is that metabolic gases play a role in the initial explosive growth phase of bubble formation during hypobaric exposures. Models that account for optimal internal tensions of dissolved gases to predict the probability of occurrence of venous gas emboli were statistically fitted to 426 hypobaric exposures from National Aeronautics and Space Administration tests. The presence of venous gas emboli in the pulmonary artery was detected with an ultrasound Doppler detector. The model fit and parameter estimation were done by using the statistical method of maximum likelihood. The analysis results were as follows. 1) For the model without an input of noninert dissolved gas tissue tension, the log likelihood (in absolute value) was 255.01. 2) When an additional parameter was added to the model to account for the dissolved noninert gas tissue tension, the log likelihood was 251.70. The significance of the additional parameter was established based on the likelihood ratio test (P < 0.012). 3) The parameter estimate for the dissolved noninert gas tissue tension participating in bubble formation was 19. 1 kPa (143 mmHg). 4) The additional gas tissue tension, supposedly due to noninert gases, did not show an exponential decay as a function of time during denitrogenation, but it remained constant. 5) The positive sign for this parameter term in the model is characteristic of an outward radial pressure of gases in the bubble. This analysis suggests that dissolved gases other than N2 in tissues may facilitate the initial explosive bubble-growth phase.

NASA Center JSC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Target Detection via Cognitive Radars Using Change-Point Detection, Learning, and Adaptation

Many radar detection algorithms that assume a stationary environment (clutter) have been proposed and analyzed over the years. However, in practice, changes in the nonstationary environment can perturb the parameters of the clutter distribution, or even alter the clutter distribution family, which can greatly deteriorate the target detection capability. To avoid such potential performance degradation, cognitive radar systems are envisioned which are required to rapidly realize the nonstationarity, accurately learn the new characteristics of the environments, and adaptively update the detector. In this paper, aiming to develop a fully cognitive radar for target detection in nonstationary environments, we propose a unifying framework that integrates (i) change-point detection of clutter distributions by using a data-driven cumulative sum (CUSUM) algorithm and its extended version, (ii) learning/identification of clutter distribution by applying sparse theory and kernel density estimation methods, and (iii) adaptive target detection by automatically modifying the likelihood-ratio test and corresponding detection threshold. Further, with extensive numerical examples, we demonstrate the achieved improvements in detection performance due to the proposed framework in comparison to a nonadaptive case, an adaptive matched filter (AMF) method, and the clairvoyant case. Herein, we also use Wilcoxon rank-sum tests to evaluate the statistical significance of the performance improvements

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microphysical Sensitivity of Superparameterized Precipitation Extremes in the Contiguous United States Due to Feedbacks on Large-Scale Circulation

Superparameterized (SP) global climate models have been shown to better simulate various features of precipitation relative to conventional models, including its diurnal cycle as well as its extremes. While various studies have focused on the effect of differing microphysics parameterizations on precipitation within limited-area cloud-resolving models, we examine here the effect on contiguous U.S. (CONUS) extremes in a global SP model. We vary the number of predicted moments for hydrometeor distributions, the character of the rimed ice species, and the representation of raindrop self-collection and breakup. Using a likelihood ratio test and accounting for the effects of multiple hypothesis testing, we find that there are some regional differences, particularly during spring and summer in the Southwest and the Midwest, in both the current climate and a warmer climate with uniformly increased sea surface temperatures. These differences are most statistically significant and widespread when the number of moments is changed. To determine whether these results are due to (fast) local effects of the different microphysics or the (slower) ensuing feedback on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, we run a series of short, 5-day simulations initialized from reanalysis data. We find that the differences largely disappear in these runs and therefore infer that the different parameterizations impact precipitation extremes indirectly via the large-scale circulation. Finally, we compare the present-day results with hourly rain gauge data and find that SP underestimates extremes relative to observations regardless of which microphysics scheme is used given a fixed model configuration and resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Grid-based minimization at scale: Feldman-Cousins corrections for light sterile neutrino search

High Energy Physics (HEP) experiments generally employ sophisticated statistical methods to present results in searches of new physics. In the problem of searching for sterile neutrinos, likelihood ratio tests are applied to short-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments to construct confidence intervals for the parameters of interest. The test statistics of the form Δχ2 is often used to form the confidence intervals, however, this approach can lead to statistical inaccuracies due to the small signal rate in the region-of-interest. In this paper, we present a computational model for the computationally expensive Feldman-Cousins corrections to construct a statistically accurate confidence interval for neutrino oscillation analysis. The program performs a grid-based minimization over oscillation parameters and is written in C++. Our algorithms make use of vectorization through Eigen3, yielding a single-core speed-up of 350 compared to the original implementation, and achieve MPI data parallelism by employing DIY. We demonstrate the strong scaling of the application at High-Performance Computing (HPC) sites. We utilize HDF5 along with HighFive to write the results of the calculation to file.

Wospakrik, Marianette↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probing the PeV region in the astrophysical neutrino spectrum using 𝜈 𝜇 from the Southern sky

IceCube has observed a diffuse astrophysical neutrino flux over the energy region from a few TeV to a few PeV. At PeV energies, the spectral shape is not yet well measured due to the low statistics of the data. This analysis probes the gap between 1 and 10 PeV by using high-energy downgoing muon neutrinos. Here, to reject the large atmospheric muon background, two complementary techniques are combined. The first technique selects events with high stochasticity to reject atmospheric muon bundles whose stochastic energy losses are smoothed due to high muon multiplicity. The second technique vetoes atmospheric muons with the IceTop surface array. Using 9 yrs of data, we found two neutrino candidate events in the signal region, consistent with expectation from background, each with relatively high signal probabilities. A joint maximum likelihood estimation is performed using this sample and an independent 9.5-yr sample of tracks to measure the neutrino spectrum. A likelihood ratio test is done to compare the single power-law (SPL) vs SPL+cutoff hypothesis; the SPL+cutoff model is not significantly better than the SPL. High-energy astrophysical objects from four source catalogs are also checked around the direction of the two events. No significant coincidence was found.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University Chicago] (ORCID:0000↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast estimation of the look-elsewhere effect using Gaussian random fields

Abstract We discuss the use of Gaussian random fields to estimate the look-elsewhere effect correction. We show that Gaussian random fields can be used to model the null-hypothesis significance maps from a large set of statistical problems commonly encountered in physics, such as template matching and likelihood ratio tests. Some specific examples are searches for dark matter using pixel arrays, searches for astronomical transients, and searches for fast-radio bursts. Gaussian random fields can be sampled efficiently in the frequency domain, and the excursion probability can be fitted with these samples to extend any estimation of the look-elsewhere effect to lower p values. In addition, in cases where the Gaussian random field is stationary and the parameter space is Euclidean, the look-elsewhere effect correction can be computed analytically. We demonstrate these methods using two example template matching problems. Finally, we apply these methods to estimate the trial factor of a $$4^3$$ 4 3 accelerometer array for the detection of dark matter tracks in the Windchime project. When a global significance of $$3\sigma $$ 3 σ is required, the estimated trial factor for such an accelerometer array is $$10^{14}$$ 10 14 for a one-second search, and $$10^{22}$$ 10 22 for a 1-year search.

Qin, Juehang (ORCID:0000000182288949)↗
DOE OSTI2026

MTRE

Multi-Token Reliability Estimation (MTRE) is a lightweight, white-box hallucination detector for vision-language models. Instead of using only the first output token, MTRE aggregates logits from the first ~10 tokens and feeds them to a small attention-based reliability head; per-token scores are combined via a sequential log-likelihood-ratio test with early-stopping, and an MTRE-t variant calibrates thresholds via cross-fitting. MTRE reports average gains of +9.4% Accuracy and +14.8% AUROC over common baselines across MAD-Bench, MM-SafetyBench, MathVista, and arithmetic/counting tasks, while adding ~4.3M params and ~1% inference overhead (~26 MB VRAM, ~0.94 ms per detection). Key limitation: requires access to early token logits and is evaluated on a handful of open-source 7B VLMs.

Bhattarai, Manish [Los Alamos National Labs]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Intrusive Uncertainty Quantification and Optimal Experiment Design in the Open-Source Pyomo Ecosystem

This contribution describes ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE, two pillars of the open-source Python-based Pyomo ecosystem for computational optimization with (partial differential) algebraic equation mathematical models. Specifically, ParmEst facilitates intrusive frequentist parameter estimation (PE) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) through built-in features, such as covariance matrix estimation, bootstrapping, and likelihood ratio tests. Complementary, Pyomo.DoE enables optimal experiment design by maximizing various metrics of the Fisher information matrix, such as A-optimality (trace), D-optimality (determinant), E-optimality (minimum eigenvalue), and ME-optimality (condition number). ParmEst and Pyomo.DoE can solve high-dimensional optimization problems by leveraging the model structure and exact derivative information. Finally, we will discuss future opportunities to integrate PE and UQ capabilities with optimization under uncertainty, including robust optimization with non-convex models via PyROS.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detection of Cosmological 21 cm Emission with the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment

We present a detection of 21 cm emission from large-scale structure (LSS) between redshift 0.78 and 1.43 made with the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment. Radio observations acquired over 102 nights are used to construct maps that are foreground filtered and stacked on the angular and spectral locations of luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission-line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars (QSOs) from the eBOSS clustering catalogs. We find decisive evidence for a detection when stacking on all three tracers of LSS, with the logarithm of the Bayes factor equal to 18.9 (LRG), 10.8 (ELG), and 56.3 (QSO). An alternative frequentist interpretation, based on the likelihood ratio test, yields a detection significance of 7.1σ (LRG), 5.7σ (ELG), and 11.1σ (QSO). These are the first 21 cm intensity mapping measurements made with an interferometer. We constrain the effective clustering amplitude of neutral hydrogen (H I ), defined as ${{ \mathcal A }}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}\equiv {10}^{3}\,{{\rm{\Omega }}}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}\left({b}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}+\langle \,f{\mu }^{2}\rangle \right)$, where Ω H I is the cosmic abundance of H I , b H I is the linear bias of H I , and $\langle$fμ 2 $\rangle$ = 0.552 encodes the effect of redshift-space distortions at linear order. We find ${{ \mathcal A }}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}={1.51}_{-0.97}^{+3.60}$ for LRGs (z = 0.84), ${{ \mathcal A }}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}={6.76}_{-3.79}^{+9.04}$ for ELGs (z = 0.96), and ${{ \mathcal A }}_{{\rm{H}}\,{\rm\small{I}}}={1.68}_{-0.67}^{+1.10}$ for QSOs (z = 1.20), with constraints limited by modeling uncertainties at nonlinear scales. We are also sensitive to bias in the spectroscopic redshifts of each tracer, and we find a nonzero bias Δ v = - 66 ± 20 km s -1 for the QSOs. We split the QSO catalog into three redshift bins and have a decisive detection in each, with the upper bin at z = 1.30 producing the highest-redshift 21 cm intensity mapping measurement thus far.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Limits on Leptonic TeV Emission from the Cygnus Cocoon with Swift-XRT

$\gamma$-ray observations of the Cygnus Cocoon, an extended source surrounding the Cygnus X star-forming region, suggest the presence of a cosmic ray accelerator reaching energies up to a few PeV. The very-high-energy (VHE; 0.1-100~TeV) $\gamma$-ray emission may be explained by the interaction of cosmic-ray hadrons with matter inside the Cocoon, but an origin of inverse Compton radiation by relativistic electrons cannot be ruled out. Inverse Compton $\gamma$-rays at VHE are accompanied by synchrotron radiation peaked in X-rays. Hence, X-ray observations may probe the electron population and magnetic field of the source. We observed eleven fields in or near the Cygnus Cocoon with the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory's X-Ray Telescope (Swift-XRT) totaling 110 ksec. We fit the fields to a Galactic and extra-galactic background model and performed a log-likelihood ratio test for an additional diffuse component. We found no significant additional emission and established upper limits in each field. By assuming that the X-ray intensity traces the TeV intensity and follows an dN/dE ∝ E -2.5 spectrum, we obtained a 90% upper limit of F X < 8.7 x 10 -11 erg cm -2 s -1 or 5.2 x10 -11 erg cm -2 s -1 on the X-ray flux of the entire Cygnus Cocoon between 2 and 10 keV depending on the choice of hydrogen column density model. This suggests that no more than one quarter of the $\gamma$-ray flux at 1 TeV is produced by inverse Compton scattering, when assuming an equipartition magnetic field of ~20 μG.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1975

Maximum likelihood failure detection techniques applied to the shuttle orbiter reaction control subsystem

A technique for on-board detection and identification of hard failures and leaks of the shuttle orbiter reaction control subsystem jets, during the orbital flight phase, is presented. The method uses gimbal angle and linear accelerometer measurements from the orbiter inertial measurement unit and requires no additional hardware. Extended Kalman filters with residual traps are employed for state estimation, and generalized likelihood ratio tests for jet failure identification. Rigid body simulation results indicate identification times of less than 2 seconds for hard jet failures and less than 70 seconds for jet leaks.

Deckert, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Sensor failure detection system

Advanced concepts for detecting, isolating, and accommodating sensor failures were studied to determine their applicability to the gas turbine control problem. Five concepts were formulated based upon such techniques as Kalman filters and a screening process led to the selection of one advanced concept for further evaluation. The selected advanced concept uses a Kalman filter to generate residuals, a weighted sum square residuals technique to detect soft failures, likelihood ratio testing of a bank of Kalman filters for isolation, and reconfiguring of the normal mode Kalman filter by eliminating the failed input to accommodate the failure. The advanced concept was compared to a baseline parameter synthesis technique. The advanced concept was shown to be a viable concept for detecting, isolating, and accommodating sensor failures for the gas turbine applications.

Beattie, E. C.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A model of the human observer and decision maker

The decision process is described in terms of classical sequential decision theory by considering the hypothesis that an abnormal condition has occurred by means of a generalized likelihood ratio test. For this, a sufficient statistic is provided by the innovation sequence which is the result of the perception an information processing submodel of the human observer. On the basis of only two model parameters, the model predicts the decision speed/accuracy trade-off and various attentional characteristics. A preliminary test of the model for single variable failure detection tasks resulted in a very good fit of the experimental data. In a formal validation program, a variety of multivariable failure detection tasks was investigated and the predictive capability of the model was demonstrated.

Wewerinke, P. H.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Edge detection for synthetic aperture radar and other noisy images

The development is examined of a new edge detector which is shown to perform adequately in the non-Gaussian multiplicative noise environment which characterizes radar images. This edge detector operates over larger local neighborhood and is less susceptible to noise than previous edge detectors and is therefore more suitable for radar. In addition, a radar image noise model is employed for the design of this new operator. This edge detector is unique in that it is assumed that every local area belongs to either the class of local areas not containing edges or to the class of local areas containing edges. Each pixel's local neighborhood is then assigned to one of these two classes using a statistical hypothesis (a likelihood ratio) test. It is demonstrated that this algorithm is useful for detecting edges in radar images.

Frost, V. S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Statistical analysis of astronomical data containing upper bounds - General methods and examples drawn from X-ray astronomy

Statistical procedures taken from the field of survival analysis have been adapted to astronomical usage and have been applied to a sample of stars in the B-V color range between 0.1 and 0.5 with measured soft X-ray luminosities and projected equatorial velocities. The two-sample problem and linear regression problem with arbitrarily censored data were studied. A new method for determining the linear regression between two random variables in the presence of arbitrary censoring has been developed which can also be used for a likelihood-ratio test for the independence of two random variables and for principal-component analysis in the presence of arbitrary censoring. The required numerical computations can be carried out straightforwardly and rapidly.

Schmitt, J. H. M. M.↗