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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

DEPRECATED AI-Batt-OS (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models - Open Source) [SWR 21-17]

DEPRECATED. This repository was archived by the owner on Jun 30, 2026. It is now read-only. Open source implementation of some of the methods utilized by AI-Batt, a battery lifetime modeling and analysis toolkit provided by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). This software demonstrates the use of bi-level optimization and symbolic regression techniques to semi-autonomously identify algebraic models predicting the capacity fade of lithium-ion batteries during calendar aging. Modeling the degradation of batteries is a complex task, due to the difficulty in separating the time-dependent and time-independent factors impacting cell level degradation, across multiple data series with different numbers of measurements and/or data quality. Bi-level optimization enables model parameters to be optimized to either the entire data set or to individual data series, allowing statistical disambiguation of global behaviors (data series independent) and local behaviors (data series dependent). Symbolic regression is used to automatically search for optimal low-dimesional models predicting the variation of locally optimized parameters versus time-independent experimental variables from millions of possible models, resulting in a more accurate and repeatable model identification process than is possible by a manual search. The provided tools also implement cross-validation and bootstrap resampling schemes, empowering statistical model comparison/selection and quantification of model uncertainties. An example script replicates the results from the manuscript "Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning", submitted to ECS. All code is written in MATLAB. Requires the Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox. Contact Dr. Paul Gasper at Paul.Gasper@nlr.gov for any questions.

Gasper, Paul↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recent Improvements in PV+Battery Modeling in NREL's System Advisor Model

This poster covers recent updates to the NREL System Advisor Model's battery model that can be coupled to the PV model to add value to both front of meter and behind the meter systems. Topics include new dispatch algorithms focusing on smoothing the output of a PV plant to meet ramp rate requirements and responding to price signals to maximize system revenue, validated battery lifetime models, grid outage simulations and resiliency metrics, and the new levelized cost of storage (LCOS) metric. We will also share preliminary results from NREL analysis projects using these features.

battery↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding EBC Lifetimes and Performance for Industrial Gas Turbines

Hydrogen or hydrogen blend fuels are expected to replace natural gas in land-based industrial gas turbines (IGTs) to support a greener power economy. Silicon carbide (SiC) base ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) are considered for replacement of Ni-based superalloys to facilitate future efficiency improvements. SiC CMCs require environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) to mitigate volatilization from high-temperature steam, thus making the EBC lifetime critical information for identifying CMC component lifetimes. The goal of this project is to determine the maximum bond coating temperature underneath the EBC for achieving an IGT component lifetime goal of 25,000 h, which is far greater than current CMC component lifetime requirements for aero-turbine applications. To provide data for the lifetime model, laboratory testing used plasma-sprayed rare-earth silicate EBCs on monolithic SiC substrates with an intermediate Si bond coating. Specimens exposed to 1-h thermal cycles in flowing air-steam environments and reaction kinetics were assessed from 700°-1350°C by measuring the thickness of the thermally grown silica scales. The silica growth and phase transformation appear critical in predicting EBC lifetime and several strategies have been explored to reduce the oxide growth rate and improve EBC durability at elevated temperatures. Advanced characterization using Raman spectroscopy has helped clarify this system.

Ridley, Mackenzie↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding Environmental Barrier Coating Lifetimes and Performance for Industrial Gas Turbines

Hydrogen or hydrogen blend fuels are expected to replace natural gas in land-based industrial gas turbines (IGTs) to support a greener power economy. Silicon carbide (SiC) base ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) are considered for replacement of Ni-based superalloys to facilitate future efficiency improvements. SiC CMCs require environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) to mitigate volatilization from high-temperature steam, thus making the EBC lifetime critical information for identifying CMC component lifetimes. Here, the goal of this project is to determine the maximum bond coating temperature underneath the EBC for achieving an IGT component lifetime goal of 25,000 h, which is far greater than current CMC component lifetime requirements for aeroturbine applications. To provide data for the lifetime model, laboratory testing used atmospheric plasma-sprayed rare-earth silicate EBCs on monolithic SiC substrates with an intermediate Si bond coating. Specimens exposed to 1-h thermal cycles in flowing air–steam environments and reaction kinetics were assessed from 700 °C to 1350 °C by measuring the thickness of the thermally grown silica scales. The silica growth and phase transformation appear critical in predicting EBC lifetime and several strategies have been explored to reduce the oxide growth rate and improve EBC durability at elevated temperatures. Advanced characterization using Raman spectroscopy has helped clarify this system.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Investigation into High Voltage Spiral Generators Utilizing Thyristor Input Switches

High voltage nanosecond pulses are widely used in scientific research, but their wider adoption in industry requires compact, cost effective and easy to use generators to be developed. This paper presents modelling and experimental investigations into one method of producing such pulses – a spiral generator with a solid-state, thyristor-based input switch. It includes how the pulses are formed within the spiral, why a high speed input switch is required, how the geometry of the spiral dictates its output characteristics, and the effects of different loads. Using thyristors, often connected in series to increase the operating voltage of the spiral, enables the spiral generators to have low jitter, high repetition rate, and long lifetime. Modelling of the circuit used a combination of telegraph equations to account for the wave propagation along the spiral and a lumped circuit exchanging charge between the spiral, the input switch, and the load. The model is verified by detailed experimental results with the relative error being < 10% in most cases. Here, the output voltage pulse was often observed to have an initial peak of much lower magnitude than the subsequent peak(s) – which can only be fully explained by considering wave propagation effects. Lower input switch inductance, shorter switching time, larger mean diameter of the spiral, and increasing the width of the copper tape that makes up the spiral can all increase the voltage multiplication efficiency. Though increasing the number of turns that make up the spiral can increase the output voltage, it can also lower the multiplication efficiency. By understanding the effects of different geometries the spiral can be optimized to drive different loads - three applications of such spiral generators are then presented: pulses with 10 kV amplitude and 10 kHz repetition rate for driving DBD plasma, pulses with amplitude of 10 kV and 10 kV/ns rising rate for triggering of advanced solid state switches, and pulses with -50 kV amplitude and 50 ns rising time for triggering high current gas switches through field distortion.1 Index Terms—spiral generator, nanosecond pulses, telegraph equations, series-connected thyristor module, pulse forming process

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ultrafast Exciton Dynamics of CH 3 NH 3 PbBr 3 Perovskite Nanoclusters

Exciton dynamics of perovskite nanoclusters has been investigated for the first time using femtosecond transient absorption (TA) and time-resolved photoluminescence (TRPL) spectroscopy. The TA results show two photoinduced absorption signals at 420 and 461 nm and a photoinduced bleach (PB) signal at 448 nm. The analysis of the PB recovery kinetic decay and kinetic model uncovered multiple processes contributing to electron-hole recombination. The fast component (~8 ps) is attributed to vibrational relaxation within the initial excited state, and the medium component (~60 ps) is attributed to shallow carrier trapping. The slow component is attributed to deep carrier trapping from the initial conduction band edge (~666 ps) and the shallow trap state (~40 ps). The TRPL reveals longer time dynamics, with modeled lifetimes of 6.6 and 93 ns attributed to recombination through the deep trap state and direct band edge recombination, respectively. In conclusion, the significant role of exciton trapping processes in the dynamics indicates that these highly confined nanoclusters have defect-rich surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Rapid Characterization and Statistical Analysis of High-Volume Field-Harvested Photovoltaic Connectors

Photovoltaic (PV) installations heavily depend on connectors for efficient module and string interconnections without requiring skilled labor. Yet this seemingly innocuous component of PV systems is a leading cause of module failures, multiple high-profile fires, and lawsuits in the PV industry. This work aims to answer critical questions regarding why connectors fail and the contributing factors to their failure. The study involves collecting and analyzing more than 17,000 field-harvested connectors from various solar installations across the United States. The vast dataset, which includes connector metadata, visual inspections, and resistance measurements, provides unprecedented insight into the state of health of PV connectors across the US, including the geographic locations, connector types, and installation practices most prone to failures. The work presented here describes a novel rapid characterization method for processing large numbers of connectors and is supported by parallel forensic analysis to discern the root causes of failures as well as a levelized cost of lifetime model to determine the economic ramifications of connector failure. Ultimately, the findings may inform PV developers about the best practices to extend connector longevity and lead to more resilient and reliable PV systems.

connectors↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating steam oxidation kinetics of environmental barrier coatings

Environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) are a commercially proven means of protecting SiC-based materials in gas turbine environments. However, there are little specific data in the literature on the impact of coatings like Yb 2 Si 2 O 7 on preventing accelerated SiO 2 growth in the presence of H 2 O. Quantification of reduced rates are necessary for evaluating and comparing EBC effectiveness and incorporation of silica growth rates into future EBC lifetime models. In this study, baseline kinetics of silica formation on bare Si and chemically vapor deposited (CVD) SiC in the 1250–1425 °C range were obtained via 100 h isothermal exposures in dry air and steam environments utilizing a SiC reaction tube to mitigate specimen volatility. An Arrhenius plot of the resulting rates was constructed, representing baseline minimum and maximum rates for Si and SiC oxidation at ambient pressure. Various EBC systems on CVD SiC substrates including air plasma sprayed (APS) EBCs with and without a Si bond coating and with surface roughening to enhance Yb 2 Si 2 O 7 adhesion were subjected to 1-h furnace cycle testing in air with 90vol%H 2 O at 1250–1350°C for up to 500 cycles. After exposure, silica formation rates were measured and compared to the baseline rates to assess EBC effectiveness, where EBC effectiveness is gauged as the propensity to reduce underlying rates of silica formation. With a Si bond coating, a ~180 µm Yb 2 Si 2 O 7 (YbDS) top coating reduced rates over the entire 1250°-1350°C range. Without a Si bond coating, ~60 µm (YbDS) coatings deposited directly onto CVD SiC exhibited poor adhesion, and had to be deposited onto substrates with enhanced roughness at 1350°C. Finally, while exhibiting good adhesion at 1350°C, overall the single layer YbDS coating exhibited a decreasing effectiveness from 1250° to 1350°C.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electrode Erosion and Prefire Studies Towards Fusion Scale Pulsed Power

This study presents a comprehensive investigation of electrode erosion and discharge behavior in spark gap switches over long switching cycle lifetimes. Brass, copper–tungsten (CuW), and stainless steel electrodes are tested under controlled conditions to quantify material degradation, debris accumulation, and changes in breakdown voltage. High-resolution imaging and statistical analysis of spark channel locations and gap breakdown voltages reveal how surface evolution influences long-term performance and reliability. These results provide essential data for lifetime modeling and inform design strategies for pulsed power systems in emerging applications such as private sector fusion energy and large-scale facilities like Sandia’s Z Machine and proposed ZX upgrades, where high repetition reliability and predictable behavior are critical.

electrical breakdown↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-Term Thermal Aging of Modified Sylgard 184 Formulations

Primarily used as an encapsulant and soft adhesive, Sylgard 184 is an engineered, high-performance silicone polymer that has applications spanning microfluidics, microelectromechanical systems, mechanobiology, and protecting electronic and non-electronic devices and equipment. Despite its ubiquity, there are improvements to be considered, namely, decreasing its gel point at room temperature, understanding volatile gas products upon aging, and determining how material properties change over its lifespan. In this work, these aspects were investigated by incorporating well-defined compounds (the Ashby–Karstedt catalyst and tetrakis (dimethylsiloxy) silane) into Sylgard 184 to make modified formulations. As a result of these additions, the curing time at room temperature was accelerated, which allowed for Sylgard 184 to be useful within a much shorter time frame. Additionally, long-term thermal accelerated aging was performed on Sylgard 184 and its modifications in order to create predictive lifetime models for its volatile gas generation and material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physiochemical Machine Learning Models Predict Operational Lifetimes of CH3NH3PbI3 Perovskite Solar Cells

Halide perovskites are promising photovoltaic (PV) materials with the potential to lower the cost of electricity and greatly expand the penetration of PV if they can demonstrate long-term stability under illumination in the presence of moisture and oxygen. The solar cell service lifetime as quantified by the T80 (the time required for the power conversion efficiency to drop to 80% of its starting value) is a useful metric to assess stability. The T80 for utility, commercial, or residential PV systems needs to be several decades in order to yield low-cost electricity, and thus it is not practical to directly measure the T80. It would be useful if T80 could be predicted from the initial dynamics of a solar cell’s performance, but until now no models have been developed to forecast T80. In this work, we report the development of machine learning models to predict T80 of ITO/NiOx/CH3NH3PbI3/C60/BCP/Ag solar cells operating at maximum power point under 1-sun equivalent photon flux in air at varying temperatures and relative humidities. Efficiency losses are driven by short-circuit current and fill factor, indicating that chemical decomposition of the perovskite is a major contributor to degradation. Spatial patterns evident from in situ dark field optical microscopy suggest that the electric field gradient at device edges plays a significant role in perovskite decomposition, along with photochemical reactions with O2 and H2O. Models are trained using a menu of features from three distinct categories: (i) features based on measurements of the initial rates of change of device parameters, (ii) features based on the ambient conditions during operation (temperature, & partial pressure of H2O), and (iii) features based on underlying physics and chemistry. We show that a theory-based physiochemical feature derived from a model of the chemical reaction kinetics of the rate of degradation of the CH3NH3PbI3 is particularly valuable for prediction. This physiochemical feature was selected as the first or second most dominant feature in the best performing models. With a dataset consisting of 45 accelerated degradation experiments with T80 that range over a factor of 30, the model predicts T80 with an accuracy of about 40% (|predicted T80 - observed T80| / observed T80) on samples not used in training. This hybrid ML approach should be effective when applied to other compositions, device architectures, and advanced packaging schemes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lifetime measurements in 206 Po with a shell-model interpretation

The lifetimes of the first excited 2⁺ and 4⁺ states in 206 Po were measured using the recoil-distance Dopplershift method. The experimental results were compared to large-scale shell-model calculations that describe the deduced transition probabilities well. Those calculations were extended to the neighboring 204,208 Po isotopes giving a good overall description of the yrast states. However, the calculations underpredict the energies of the 6+1 and 8+1 states, which suggests that further improvement of the proton-neutron interaction is required.

190 ≤ A ≤ 219↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tensile Property and Lifetime Prediction for Low-Temperature Aged Uranium-Niobium Alloys

Thermal aging models and lifetime predictions for uranium-niobium (U-Nb) alloys were created using an approach similar to those previously employed. Lifetime estimates for generic U-6Nb components were thus updated; the reported value being 800 years. This update represents a small change in lifetime vs. that of the 2012 assessment (540 years). This lifetime estimate emerged from consideration of several model fits specific to the aging datasets and properties chosen. Aging was quantified using quasi-static tensile properties measured on specimens artificially aged for up to 10 years. The major change relative to the most recent 2012 LANL assessment was that a more comprehensive body of U-Nb literature data was mined, in addition to being augmented by the latest LANL and UK AWE data. The tensile data compilation was published separately (LANL report LA-14493, December 2016). Recognizing the chemical banding of industrially produced U-6Nb, models were developed for the mid-range (6 wt.%) and extrema (4 and 8 wt.%) compositions. Lifetime estimates were calculated for all three alloy classes (4, 6, 8 wt.% nominal) and two measures of total tensile elongation (TE) to failure, namely TE-ext. — extensometer method, and TE-NCD — normalized crosshead displacement method. The conservative assumption was made that whichever composition (4, 6, or 8 wt.% Nb) and property (TE-ext or TE-NCD) was the first to cross the ductility failure threshold would limit the lifetime of the entire component. Tensile strength properties did not figure into the lifetime predictions, but could be useful as age-sensitive diagnostics and were also modeled. Of these, only first yield strength is expected to show a change at 40°C aging vs. time = 0 over the ~100-year timespan of engineering interest. Second yield strength evolves more slowly, and ultimate tensile strength slower still. Among all the models, the apparent activation energies for aging were mostly in the narrow 29– 37 kcal/mol range, which is close to that for diffusion of Nb in gamma-uranium. This agreement may be coincidental. The data from recent long-term aging studies substantially improved the model fit quality and robustness of the lifetimes. Appendices document sensitivity studies of the model fits and lifetimes with respect to using more limited datasets. These results highlight the limitations of relying solely on data from scattered literature studies and smaller datasets more generally.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Standard Model prediction of the Bc lifetime

Applying an operator product expansion approach we update the Standard Model prediction of the B c lifetime from over 20 years ago. The non-perturbative velocity expansion is carried out up to third order in the relative velocity of the heavy quarks. The scheme dependence is studied using three different mass schemes for the b ¯ and c quarks, resulting in three different values consistent with each other and with experiment. Special focus has been laid on renormalon cancellation in the computation. Uncertainties resulting from scale dependence, neglecting the strange quark mass, non-perturbative matrix elements and parametric uncertainties are discussed in detail. The resulting uncertainties are still rather large compared to the experimental ones, and therefore do not allow for clear-cut conclusions concerning New Physics effects in the B c decay.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗