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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Dissipation Scaled Internal Wave Drag in a Global Heterogeneously Coupled Internal/External Mode Total Water Level Model

This study showcases a global, heterogeneously coupled total water level system wherein salinity and temperature outputs from a coarser-resolution (~12 km) ocean general circulation model are used to calculate density-driven terms within a global, higher-resolution (~2.5 km) depth-averaged total water level model. We demonstrate that the inclusion of baroclinic forcing in the barotropic model requires modification of the internal wave drag term to prevent excess degradation of tidal results compared to the barotropic model. By scaling the internal tide dissipation by an easy to calculate dissipation ratio, the resulting heterogeneously coupled model has complex root mean square errors (RMSE) of 2.27 cm in the deep ocean and 12.16 cm in shallow waters for the M 2 tidal constituent. While this represents a 10%–20% deterioration as compared to the barotropic model, the improvements in total water level prediction more than offset this degradation. Global median RMSE compared to observations of total water levels, 30-day sea levels, and non-tidal residuals improve by 1.86 (18.5%), 2.55 (42.5%), and 0.36 (5.3%) cm respectively. The drastic improvement in model performance highlights the importance of including density-driven effects within global hydrodynamic models and will help to improve the results of both hindcasts and forecasts in modeling extreme and nuisance flooding. With only an 11% increase in model run time compared to the fully barotropic total water level model, this approach paves the way for high resolution coastal water level and flood models to be used alongside climate models, improving operational forecasting of total water levels.

Blakely, Coleman Peter [University of Notre Dame, ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Steric Sea Level Rise and Relationships with Model Drift and Water Mass Representation in GFDL CM4 and ESM4

Abstract Density-driven steric seawater changes are a leading-order contributor to global mean sea level rise. However, intermodel differences in the magnitude and spatial patterns of steric sea level rise exist at regional scales and often emerge during the spinup and preindustrial control integrations of climate models. Steric sea level results from an eddy-permitting climate model, GFDL CM4, are compared with a lower-resolution counterpart, GFDL-ESM4. The results from both models are examined through basin-scale heat budgets and watermass analysis, and we compare the patterns of ocean heat uptake, redistribution, and sea level differ in ocean-only [i.e., Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)] and coupled climate configurations. After correcting for model drift, both GFDL CM4 and GFDL-ESM4 simulate nearly equivalent ocean heat content change and global sea level rise during the historical period. However, the GFDL CM4 model exhibits as much as a 40% increase in surface ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean and subsequent increases in horizontal export to other ocean basins after bias correction. The results suggest regional differences in the processes governing Southern Ocean heat export, such as the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW), and gyre transport between the two models, and that sea level changes in these models cannot be fully bias-corrected. Since the process-level differences between the two models are evident in the preindustrial control simulations of both models, these results suggest that the control simulations are important for identifying and correcting sea level–related model biases.

Krasting, John P. [a NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Precise Fermi level engineering in a topological Weyl semimetal via fast ion implantation

The precise controllability of the Fermi level is a critical aspect of quantum materials. For topological Weyl semimetals, there is a pressing need to fine-tune the Fermi level to the Weyl nodes and unlock exotic electronic and optoelectronic effects associated with the divergent Berry curvature. However, in contrast to two-dimensional materials, where the Fermi level can be controlled through various techniques, the situation for bulk crystals beyond laborious chemical doping poses significant challenges. Here, we report the milli-electron-volt (meV) level ultra-fine-tuning of the Fermi level of bulk topological Weyl semimetal tantalum phosphide using accelerator-based high-energy hydrogen implantation and theory-driven planning. By calculating the desired carrier density and controlling the accelerator profiles, the Fermi level can be experimentally fine-tuned from 5 meV below, to 3.8 meV below, to 3.2 meV above the Weyl nodes. High-resolution transmission electron microscopy reveals the crystalline structure is largely maintained under irradiation, while electrical transport indicates that Weyl nodes are preserved and carrier mobility is also largely retained. Our work demonstrates the viability of this generic approach to tune the Fermi level in semimetal systems and could serve to achieve property fine-tuning for other bulk quantum materials with ultrahigh precision.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring Electrode-Level State-of-Charge and State-of-Health Dynamics in Lithium-Ion Battery Cells: Modeling and Experimental Identification

A computationally efficient model serves as a critical prerequisite for battery performance analysis and advanced battery management algorithm design. Although battery models that capture cell-level behavior have been widely explored in existing literature, electrode-level battery models have received much lesser attention till to date. However, such electrode-level models can significantly increase battery performance and life by enabling electrode-level health-conscious control. Such electrode-level control can effectively expand usable energy and power limits of the battery cells by utilizing the knowledge of individual electrodes' charge and health. In this context, this paper presents a comprehensive battery model developed with a reference electrode insertion that captures (i) electrode-level charge/discharge dynamics, (ii) stoichiometric and temporal dependencies of electrode-level resistances, (iii) solid electrolyte interface (SEI) layer growth as key degradation phenomenon, and (iv) capacity fade and resistance rise in each electrode due to nominal battery aging. The proposed model is identified, and a preliminary validation is performed utilizing terminal voltage and negative electrode potential data collected from a pouch cell under one continuous cycling and accelerated aging conditions where the cell experienced 14% capacity loss.

aging↗
DOE OSTI2026

Servomotor-driven leveling elements for machine tool frame-to-floor alignment

This paper presents the results of aligning the frame to concrete floor of a large 5-axis machine tool by leveling element adjustments using servomotors instead of manual operation. The machine tool leveling elements used in this study are mechanical devices that attach the machine tool frame to the concrete foundation. These leveling elements are also adjustable so that each location along the machine tool can be uniquely adjusted such that the geometric errors of the frame are minimized, and the accuracy of the machine tool is improved. Off-the-shelf servomotors and connection equipment were installed at each of 12 leveling element locations for a precision 5-axis machine tool at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The servomotors allow a technician to align the machine tool frame remotely, instead of crawling under the machine tool to iteratively manually adjust each of the 12 leveling elements. The open-loop servomotor-leveling element system design is presented in this paper as well as machine tool frame alignment results. The servomotor system significantly reduces leveling element adjustment time, eliminates the need for under-machine access, reduces technician physical strain, and significantly improves the adjustment repeatability.

Honeycutt, Andrew [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmogenic surface exposure ( 10 Be) dating of raised beaches in Marguerite bay, Antarctic Peninsula: Implications for relative sea-level history

Understanding the dynamics of ice mass loss in polar regions is crucial for deciphering climate change and Glacio Isostatic Adjustment patterns. This study focuses on Marguerite Bay, located in the south-central Antarctic Peninsula. We dated raised beaches to investigate relative sea-level changes using the cosmogenic surface exposure ( 10 Be) method. Previous studies have provided valuable insights into the region's glacial history, but limitations in dating techniques and age estimates necessitate further investigation. By analysing raised shingle beaches in Gaul Cove of Horseshoe Island and the southern coast of Calmette Bay, this research aims to contribute relative sea-level change history for these areas. In Horseshoe Island's Gaul Cove, raised beaches clustered on prominent steps reveal a 15 m relative sea-level change over the last 3.31 ka. Differently, Calmette Bay exhibits a 36 m relative sea-level fall over the last 7.29 ka. Finally, these findings indicate significant and differential glacial-isostatic adjustments in both regions during the middle and late Holocene. Additionally, our data reveal accelerated sea-level fall periods corresponding to Holocene deglaciation and glacial advance events, indicating the shorelines' relative sea-level change sensitivity to climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of thermal and mechanical properties with inventory level of the molten salt storage tank in central receiver concentrating solar power plants

Molten salt thermal energy storage (TES) tanks ensure steady power output of concentrating solar power (CSP) plants; however, recent tank failures have highlighted the need for further analysis. Current studies primarily focus on analyzing the molten salt flow, heat transfer, and thermal efficiency. Additionally, research on the latest tank structures is limited and lacks newest experimental validation. This study measures temperature and molten salt inventory levels in the high-temperature tank at a 50 MW central receiver CSP plant, connected to the power grid in 2019. A multi-physics model was developed to evaluate thermal and mechanical properties of TES tanks by combining computational fluid dynamics and finite element modeling using real plant data. Heat loss, temperature, displacement, and stress distribution of the tank at different inventory levels were investigated. Results show that ambient air velocity near the tank roof reaches 2.14 m/s, much higher than 0.2 m/s near the wall. The temperatures of inventory fluid and tank are close, varying slightly at different levels due to thermal conduction and radiation. Because the heat loss strongly depends on temperature, the total tank loss remains nearly constant across inventory levels. Larger temperature gradients and thermal stresses are primarily localized along the tank floor edge and the air-salt interface. Notably, the maximum thermal stress at the tank edge is three times higher than that at the interface. The magnitude of total stress changes by less than 5 MPa with and without thermal load, indicating that high temperatures exert only a minor impact on tank stress. In contrast, thermal load significantly affects tank deformation, particularly at the roof edge, where values exceed 150 mm. Despite the large variation in molten salt levels, tank wall temperatures and displacements present a minor change, suggesting a weak correlation with inventory levels. In conclusion, the findings obtained in this study provide important insights on the TES tank that could be used to optimize tank design and operation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spectroscopy and dynamics of the v = 1 levels derived from the OH(D) stretching modes in the I‾∙HDO complex using CW and time-resolved, resonant two-photon infrared excitation of the cryogenically cooled ions

The vibrational energy levels of the two isotopomers adopted by the I‾∙HDO ion-molecule complex occur such that the OH(D) stretching fundamentals span its dissociation energy, thus enabling a spectroscopic investigation of the dynamics displayed by a system prepared in the vicinity of the dissociation threshold. This regime is explored using infrared photoexcitation of the mass-selected complexes cooled in a cryogenic radiofrequency (Paul) ion trap. Survey spectra are obtained at modest resolution using two-color, IR-IR photodissociation with nanosecond lasers to establish the level structure and unimolecular decay dynamics of the v = 1 and 2 levels of the bound OH(D) oscillator. The v = 1 levels are prepared by fixed frequency excitation in the trap and the absorption spectra arising from this excited state are probed by photofragmentation of the complex with a second pulsed IR laser after a variable delay time (0 to 20 ms). The transitions to levels above the dissociation threshold for I‾ + HDO formation are observed to be sharp (~5 cm -1 FWHM). At low pressure, the bound OD (v = 1) population relaxes very slowly (~3 ms), consistent with resonant fluorescence in the IR. The collisional quenching rate constants of this level by the He buffer gas were estimated to be on the order 3 x 10 -12 cm 3 /s based on a crude Stern-Volmer analysis. Here, the rotational fine structure and linewidths (≲0.01 cm -1 FWHM) arising from transitions of the non-bonded OH stretch fundamental of the OD-bound isotopomer that lies just above the dissociation energy are determined using single photon photodissociation by excitation of the 10 K ions with a single-frequency, CW IR laser in the ion trap.

Cryogenic ion infrared spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual‐Transformer Deep Learning Framework for Seasonal Forecasting of Great Lakes Water Levels

Abstract The Great Lakes of North America form one of the largest freshwater systems on Earth, and their lake‐wide average water levels (lake levels) can fluctuate by more than 0.5 m on a seasonal scale. These fluctuations pose substantial challenges for coastal resilience, flood risk management, and navigation planning. Accurate seasonal forecasting of lake levels using traditional mechanistic models is challenging due to the complex physical mechanisms and coupled hydroclimatic processes involved. Recently, deep learning has gained prominence in geoscience applications for its ability to recognize intricate patterns within multiphysical data sets. Here, we introduce a novel Dual‐Transformer deep learning framework, tested on the Great Lakes. This architecture integrates two modified Transformer models: the Prophet, which predicts underlying trends, and the Critic, which refines the Prophet's predictions. The final lake level prediction is derived by weighting the outputs of both models through a multi‐layer perceptron, jointly trained with the Prophet and Critic to enhance overall accuracy. Our results demonstrate that the innovative learning framework achieves the highest prediction accuracy compared to established deep learning models when using identical input features. It attains a root mean square error of 4–7 cm in predicting lake levels up to 6 months in advance across the lakes. Additionally, the Dual‐Transformer model runs six orders of magnitude faster than conventional mechanistic models, producing results in less than one second on a typical personal computer. These findings suggest that our deep learning framework has strong potential to advance lake level prediction and carries important implications for water management and disaster mitigation, thereby enhancing the quality of life in coastal regions.

Chen, Yi [Great Lakes Research Center Michigan Tec↗
DOE OSTI2025

Theory of Two-Level Tunneling Systems in Superconductors

We develop a field theory formulation for the interaction of an ensemble of two-level tunneling systems (TLSs) with the electronic states of a superconductor. Predictions for the impact of two-level tunneling systems on superconductivity are presented, including T c and the spectrum of quasiparticle states for conventional BCS superconductors. We show that nonmagnetic TLS impurities in conventional s-wave superconductors can act as pair-breaking or pair-enhancing defects depending on the level population of the distribution of TLS impurities. We present calculations of the enhancement of superconductivity, both T c and the order parameter, for TLS defects in thermal equilibrium with the electrons and lattice. The scattering of quasiparticles by TLS impurities leads to subgap states below the bulk excitation gap, Δ, as well as resonances in the continuum above Δ. The energies and spectral weights of these states depend on the distribution of tunnel splittings, while the spectral weights are particularly sensitive to the level occupation of the TLS impurities. Under microwave excitation, or decoupling from the thermal bath, a nonequilibrium level population of the TLS distribution generates subgap quasiparticle states near the Fermi level that contribute to dissipation and thus degrade the performance of superconducting devices at low temperatures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

ObstacleSense: Low-Power Neuromorphic Vision for Corridor Obstacle Awareness in Low-Level ADAS

The automotive industry’s pursuit of Level 5 autonomy is constrained by substantial perception-compute power requirements, often reaching 1, 000 + watts in full autonomy stacks. Reducing this energy burden requires rethinking perception not only at the high-end autonomy level, but also at the foundational Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) level where low-power, safety-critical sensing can have broad impact. Neuromorphic vision provides a promising starting point: HD Dynamic Vision Sensors (DVS) can operate below 100 mW at the sensor level by reporting only asynchronous brightness changes. However, low-power sensing alone is insufficient if downstream perception reintroduces dense, energy-intensive computation. In particular, many event-driven object-detection pipelines still rely on CNN backbones, while purely spiking alternatives often trade away accuracy or ignore deployment constraints. We introduce ObstacleSense, a highly compact, CNN-free hybrid ANN–SNN framework for Level 0–1 forward-corridor obstacle awareness. Instead of performing full-scene object detection with a convolutional feature backbone, ObstacleSense targets the safety-critical question of whether the ego corridor is occupied and how far the nearest obstacle is. The architecture combines polarity-conditioned event encoding, lightweight temporal spiking dynamics, axial spatial mixing, and coarse-to-fine range estimation within a regular fixed-grid compute pattern. This design avoids the dense CNN backbone commonly used in event-based detection while maintaining a small state footprint suitable for eventual small-FPGA deployment. Before hardware mapping, we evaluate the software implementation using a model-side power proxy derived from MACs, weight and activation traffic, and spiking state updates under shared FP16 assumptions. On simulated CARLA event corpora, the deployment-oriented model achieves 0.9464 objectness F1, 0.9978 grid-level mAP, and 0.8987 m distance Mean Absolute Error at an estimated 1.92 mW proxy cost, while maintaining performance on unseen generalization test sequences.

Johnson-Scott, Zac [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Realizing tunable Fermi level in SnTe by defect control

The tuning of the Fermi level in tin telluride, a topological crystalline insulator, is essential for accessing its unique surface states and optimizing its electronic properties for applications such as spintronics and quantum computing. In this study, we demonstrate that the Fermi level in tin telluride can be effectively modulated by controlling the tin concentration during chemical vapor deposition synthesis. By introducing tin-rich conditions, we observed a blue shift in the x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy core-level peaks of both tin and tellurium, indicating an upward shift in the Fermi level. Further, this shift is corroborated by a decrease in work function values measured via ultraviolet photoelectron spectroscopy, confirming the suppression of Sn vacancies. Our findings provide a low-cost, scalable method to achieve tunable Fermi levels in tin telluride, offering a significant advancement in the development of materials with tailored electronic properties for next-generation technological applications.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vulnerability of Wetlands Due to Projected Sea-Level Rise in the Coastal Plains of the South and Southeast United States

Coastal wetlands are vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise, yet knowledge about their extent and distribution is often limited. We developed a land cover classification of wetlands in the coastal plains of the southern United States along the Gulf of Mexico (Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida) using 6161 very-high (2 m per pixel) resolution WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images from 2012 to 2015. Area extent estimations were obtained for the following vegetated classes: marsh, scrub, grass, forested upland, and forested wetland, located in elevation brackets between 0 and 10 m above sea level at 0.1 m intervals. Sea-level trends were estimated for each coastal state using tide gauge data collected over the period 1983–2021 and projected for 2100 using the trend estimated over that period. These trends were considered conservative, as sea level rise in the region accelerated between 2010 and 2021. Estimated losses in vegetation area due to sea level rise by 2100 are projected to be at least 12,587 km 2 , of which 3224 km 2 would be coastal wetlands. Louisiana is expected to suffer the largest losses in vegetation (80%) and coastal wetlands (75%) by 2100. Such high-resolution coastal mapping products help to guide adaptation plans in the region, including planning for wetland conservation and coastal development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A two-loop four-point form factor at function level

Recently, the maximally-helicity-violating four-point form factor for the chiral stress-energy tensor in planar $\mathcal{N}$ = 4 super Yang-Mills was computed to three loops at the level of the symbol associated with multiple polylogarithms. It exhibits antipodal self-duality, or invariance under the combined action of a kinematic map and reversing the ordering of letters in the symbol. Here we lift the two-loop form factor from symbol level to function level. We provide an iterated representation of the function’s derivatives (coproducts). In order to do so, we find a three-parameter limit of the five-parameter phase space where the symbol’s letters are all rational. We also use function-level information about dihedral symmetries and the soft, collinear, and factorization limits, as well as limits governed by the form-factor operator product expansion (FFOPE). We provide plots of the remainder function on several kinematic slices, and show that the result is compatible with the FFOPE data. We further verify that antipodal self-duality is valid at two loops beyond the level of the symbol.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating the opioid epidemic across the United States: Associations between county-level characteristics and overdose mortality

The opioid crisis remains a critical public health challenge in the United States. Despite national efforts that reduced opioid prescribing by nearly 44% between 2011 and 2021, opioid overdose deaths more than tripled during the same period. This alarming trend reflects a major shift in the crisis, with illegal opioids now driving the majority of overdose deaths instead of prescription opioids. Although supply-side factors fueling this transition have been widely studied, the structural and community-level conditions that shape overdose mortality are less well understood. To help address this gap, this study has three primary objectives: (1) overcome structural gaps in national data to construct a complete nationwide county-level dataset from 2010 to 2022; (2) using data analysis, identify and investigate spatiotemporal anomalies in overdose mortality; and (3) using two machine-learning models, quantify the importance of thirteen social vulnerability variables in predicting overdose mortality. Our results identify unemployment and limited vehicle access as key county-level predictors of overdose mortality. Higher levels of these vulnerabilities are associated with elevated mortality, whereas lower levels are associated with reduced mortality. These findings highlight factors that may be relevant for public health planning and policy prioritization within the context of the opioid crisis.

Anomaly analysis↗
DOE OSTI2024

The interactivity of sources and dietary levels of resistant starches – impact on growth performance, starch, and nutrient digestibility, digesta oligosaccharides profile, cecal microbial metabolites, and indicators of gut health in broiler chickens

In a 21-d study, 480 Cobb 500 (off-sex) male broiler chicks were used to investigate the effects of feeding different sources and levels of resistant starches (RS) on growth performance, nutrient and energy utilization, and intestinal health in broiler chickens. The birds were allocated to 10 dietary treatments in a 3 × 3 + 1 factorial arrangement. The factors were 3 RS-sources (RSS): banana starch (BS), raw potato starch (RPS), and high-amylose corn starch (HCS); each at 3 levels (RSL) 25, 50, or 100 g/kg plus a corn-soybean meal control diet. Birds and feed were weighed on d 0, 8, and 21. On d 21, samples of jejunal tissue and digesta were collected for chemical analysis. Data were analyzed using the mixed model procedure of JMP with factor levels nested with the control. In the 0 to 21 phase, the birds fed the RPS diets had higher (P = 0.011) FI than those fed HCS or control diets, and FCR was greater (P = 0.030) in birds that received BS diets than in other diets. RSS × RSL was significant (P < 0.05) for total tract nutrient retention, AME, and AMEn on d 21. The starch digestibility was higher (P < 0.001) in birds that received the control diet than in RS diets, and decreased as RS levels increased, except for HCS. The apparent metabolizable energy (AME) and nitrogen-corrected AME (AMEn) were higher (P < 0.001) in birds fed 100 g/kg HCS diet, with both decreasing with increasing levels of BS and RPS, except for HCS. Relative ileal oligosaccharides profile showed significant (P < 0.05) RSS × RSL with a higher relative abundance of Hex(3) (P = 0.01) and Pent(3) (P = 0.001) in HCS diets. In conclusion, RS may influence gut health and growth performance in broiler chickens through modulation of cecal SCFA and nutrient digestion, but these depend largely on the botanical origin and concentrations of individual RS.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulation With Uncertainty Quantification of Regional Sea‐Level Change Caused by the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Abstract Projecting regional sea‐level change under various climate‐change scenarios typically involves running forward simulations of the Earth's gravitational, rotational and deformational (GRD) response to ice‐mass change, which requires substantial computational cost if applied to probabilistic frameworks requiring thousands to millions of samples. Here we build emulators of regional sea‐level change at 27 coastal locations, due to the GRD effects associated with future Antarctic Ice Sheet mass change over the 21st century. The emulators are evaluated against a numerical sea‐level model applied to an ensemble of ice‐sheet model simulations of the Antarctic Ice Sheet through 2100. We build a physics‐based emulator using a recent sensitivity kernel approach and compare it to machine learning based emulators (neural network and conditional variational autoencoder methods). In order to quantify uncertainty, we derive well‐calibrated prediction intervals for regional sea‐level change via split‐conformal inference and linear regression, and show that Monte Carlo dropout does not yield well‐calibrated uncertainties in this instance. We also demonstrate substantial gains in computational efficiency using both the physics‐based emulator and neural networks in comparison to the numerical model for the complete regional sea‐level solution. Overall, we find the physics‐based emulator modestly outperforms the machine learning emulators for this problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Increased flood exposure in the Pacific Northwest following earthquake-driven subsidence and sea-level rise

Climate-driven sea-level rise is increasing the frequency of coastal flooding worldwide, exacerbated locally by factors like land subsidence from groundwater and resource extraction. However, a process rarely considered in future sea-level rise scenarios is sudden (over minutes) land subsidence associated with great (>M8) earthquakes, which can exceed 1 m. Along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts, the next great Cascadia subduction zone earthquake could cause up to 2 m of sudden coastal subsidence, dramatically raising sea level, expanding floodplains, and increasing the flood risk to local communities. Here, we quantify the potential expansion of the 1% floodplain (i.e., the area with an annual flood risk of 1%) under low (~0.5 m), medium (~1 m), and high (~2 m) earthquake-driven subsidence scenarios at 24 Cascadia estuaries. If a great earthquake occurred today, floodplains could expand by 90 km 2 (low), 160 km 2 (medium), or 300 km 2 (high subsidence), more than doubling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario. By 2100, when climate-driven sea-level rise will compound the hazard, a great earthquake could expand floodplains by 170 km 2 (low), 240 km 2 (medium), or 370 km 2 (high subsidence), more than tripling the flooding exposure of residents, structures, and roads under the high subsidence scenario compared to the 2023 floodplain. Our findings can support decision-makers and coastal communities along the Cascadia subduction zone as they prepare for compound hazards from the earthquake cycle and climate-driven sea-level rise and provide critical insights for tectonically active coastlines globally.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗