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At least 37 records · Page 2

Terrain-Influenced Winds and Fire-Fire Interactions in Wildland Fire Simulations [Dissertation]

Ensemble-based approaches to prescribed fire planning cannot be supported by computational fluid dynamics based models like FIRETEC and the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) because they are too computationally expensive and cannot leverage large eddy simulation approaches like CAWFE and WRF-SFIRE because they have too coarse of resolution. QUIC-Fire was developed to fill this gap but it cannot currently address complex terrain, that is typical for instance in the Western United States. This dissertation describes a variety of improvements made to QUIC-Fire and its various incorporated algorithms in an effort to make it a viable tool in simulating wildland and prescribed fires on terrain. The modifications made to QUIC-Fire are described in three chapters. The first chapter describes the extension of the diagnostic wind model QUIC-URB, the wind engine of QUIC-Fire, to a terrain-following coordinate system. The terraininfluenced winds it generates are analyzed and compared. In particular, this chapter presents the mathematical derivation of the wind solver leading to a linear system of equations that are solved through the successive over-relaxation method. The model is validated against a standard test used in previous works (the Askervein Hill) and against a new dataset from measurements in the Socorro Mountains, New Mexico. The terrain-following implementation captures the correct phenomenology for the isolated Askervein Hill, with a wind speed up at the top of the hill. The model agrees well with measurements on the upwind side of the peak, but overestimates speed-up on the downwind side of the hill. This is due to the inability of the model to generate flow separation and wake-eddy dynamics. On a common laptop, the divergence-free wind field is obtained in 6 s, making the solver appealing for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. The Socorro Mountain is highly complex, with many cliff faces, peaks, and valleys. Although the model captures the magnitude and direction of inlet and outlet areas of the domain, it performs rather poorly in the valley region and in the regions near the steep cliffs. Hence, the model shows good agreement with data in areas of open sloped terrain but lacks in areas where flow separation and thermally driven effects may be present (neither effect is addressed in this work). In the second chapter the implementation of the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB into QUIC-Fire, and the necessary changes needed to include terrain are described. No changes to the underlying fire spread algorithm are made other than what is required to correctly account for the inclusion of terrain. Previously published FIRETEC results that use five different topographies that share the same centerline profile are compared to simulation results from the modified QUIC-Fire that use the same topographies and fuels. QUIC-Fire results show overall similar behaviors in terms of how the topographies affect fire shapes and trends in spread rates. Due to the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB being unable to generate flow separations at the crest of hills, fire spread rates in these regions across all topographies are over-predicted when compared to FIRETEC. Lateral fire growth shows similar trends with FIRETEC between topographies but does not capture the increase in spread due to a diagonal interface between grassland and forested fuel region of the domain. These results suggest that there are three algorithms within QUIC-Fire that could use improvement: how flame tilt angle is accounted for, the incorporation of non-local drag effects, and the inclusion of the wake-eddy parameterizations that are used in QUIC-URB. Lastly, the third chapter describes a modification to the initial guess used for the calculation of the QUIC-URB mass-conserved wind solution during fire simulations. The modification is aimed at improving fire-fire interactions in QUIC-Fire simulations. The modification consists of using the solution from the previous timestep as the starting point for the calculation of the solution for the next timestep. Fire-fire interactions is greatly improved by the change but a new source of error is introduced. Due to how plumes are modelled in QUIC-Fire the new solution contains errors where gaps in the plume structure are present. However, these errors are mostly limited to the upper atmosphere, where they do not affect fire behavior at the surface, and their magnitude isn’t significant enough to discount the amount of new fire phenomenology now captured in QUIC-Fire with the change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The effect of terrain-influenced winds on fire spread in QUIC-Fire

Here in this manuscript, we describe the implementation of the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB into QUIC-Fire and a demonstration of the impacts of terrain-influenced winds on QUIC-Fire-simulated fire spread. No changes to the underlying QUIC-Fire fire spread algorithm were made other than what was required to correctly account for the inclusion of terrain. This paper summarizes simulations used to understand how the QUIC-URB terrain-influenced winds affect upslope fire behavior without additional changes to the QUIC-Fire fire spread algorithm. Previously published FIRETEC results are compared to simulation results from the modified QUIC-Fire (incorporating terrain-influenced winds) that use the same topographies and fuels. QUIC-Fire results showed overall similar behaviors in terms of how the topographies affected fire shapes and trends in spread rates. Due to the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB being unable to generate flow separations at the crest of hills, fire spread rates in these regions across all non-flat topographies were over-predicted when compared to FIRETEC. Lateral fire growth showed similar trends with FIRETEC between topographies but did not capture the increase in spread due to a diagonal interface between grassland and forested fuel regions in the test domain. These simulations suggest possible refinements that are necessary to improve QUIC-Fire and thus guide ongoing efforts related to: how flame tilt angle is accounted for, the incorporation of non-local drag effects, and the inclusion of the wake-eddy parameterizations that are used in QUIC-URB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

“Thought I’d Share First” and Other Conspiracy Theory Tweets from the COVID-19 Infodemic: Exploratory Study

Background: The COVID-19 outbreak has left many people isolated within their homes; these people are turning to social media for news and social connection, which leaves them vulnerable to believing and sharing misinformation. Health-related misinformation threatens adherence to public health messaging, and monitoring its spread on social media is critical to understanding the evolution of ideas that have potentially negative public health impacts. Objective: The aim of this study is to use Twitter data to explore methods to characterize and classify four COVID-19 conspiracy theories and to provide context for each of these conspiracy theories through the first 5 months of the pandemic. Methods: We began with a corpus of COVID-19 tweets (approximately 120 million) spanning late January to early May 2020. We first filtered tweets using regular expressions (n=1.8 million) and used random forest classification models to identify tweets related to four conspiracy theories. Our classified data sets were then used in downstream sentiment analysis and dynamic topic modeling to characterize the linguistic features of COVID-19 conspiracy theories as they evolve over time. Results: Analysis using model-labeled data was beneficial for increasing the proportion of data matching misinformation indicators. Random forest classifier metrics varied across the four conspiracy theories considered (F1 scores between 0.347 and 0.857); this performance increased as the given conspiracy theory was more narrowly defined. We showed that misinformation tweets demonstrate more negative sentiment when compared to non-misinformation tweets and that theories evolve over time, incorporating details from unrelated conspiracy theories as well as real-world events. Conclusions: Although we focus here on health-related misinformation, this combination of approaches is not specific to public health and is valuable for characterizing misinformation in general, which is an important first step in creating targeted messaging to counteract its spread. Initial messaging should aim to preempt generalized misinformation before it becomes widespread, while later messaging will

5g↗

Modeling of hepatitis B virus infection spread in primary human hepatocytes

ABSTRACT Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection poses a significant global health threat, causing severe liver diseases including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. We characterized HBV DNA kinetics in primary human hepatocytes (PHHs) over 32 days post-inoculation (p.i.) and modified ourin-vivoagent-based modeling (ABM) to gain insights into the HBV lifecycle and spreadin vitro. Parallel PHH cultures were mock-treated or treated with HBV entry inhibitor Myr-preS1 (6.25 µg/mL) was initiated 24 h p.i. In untreated PHH, three viral DNA kinetic patterns were identified: (i) an initial decline, followed by (ii) rapid amplification and (iii) slower amplification/accumulation. In the presence of Myr-preS1, viral DNA and infected cell numbers in phase 3 were effectively blocked, with minimal to no increase. This suggests that phase 2 represents viral amplification in initially infected cells, while phase 3 corresponds to viral spread to naïve cells. The ABM reproduced well the HBV kinetic patterns observed and predicted that the viral eclipse phase lasts between 18 and 38 h. After the eclipse phase, the viral production rate increased over time, starting with a slow production cycle of 1 virion per day, which gradually accelerated to 1 virion per hour after 3 days. Approximately 4 days later, virion production reached a steady state production rate of 4 virions/h. The estimated median efficacy of Myr-preS1 in blocking HBV spread was 91% (range: 90–92%). The HBV kinetics and the predicted estimates of the HBV eclipse phase duration and HBV production cycles in PHH are similar to those predicted in uPA/SCID mice with human livers. IMPORTANCE While primary human hepatocytes (PHHs) are the most physiologically relevant culture system for studying HBV infectionin vitro, a comprehensive understanding of HBV infection kinetics and spread in PHH is lacking. In this study, we characterize HBV viral kinetics and modify ourin vivoagent-based modeling (ABM) to provide quantitative insights into the HBV production cycle and viral spread in PHH. The ABM provides an estimate of the HBV eclipse phase duration, HBV production cycles, and Myr-preS1 efficacy in blocking HBV spread in PHH. The results resemble those predicted in uPA/SCID mice with human livers, demonstrating that estimated HBV infection kinetic parameters in PHHin vitromirror those observed in thein vivoHBV infection chimeric mouse model.

Virology↗

In Situ Imaging of Faujasite Surface Growth Reveals Unique Pathways of Zeolite Crystallization

Zeolite crystallization occurs by complex processes involving a variety of possible mechanisms. The sol gel media used to prepare zeolites leads to heterogeneous mixtures of solution and solid states with diverse solute species. At later stages of zeolite synthesis when growth occurs predominantly from solution, classical two-dimensional nucleation and spreading of layers on crystal surfaces via the addition of soluble species is the dominant pathway. At earlier stages, these processes occur in parallel with nonclassical pathways involving crystallization by particle attachment (CPA). The relative roles of solution- and solid-state species in zeolite crystallization have been a subject of debate. Here, in this work, we investigate the growth mechanism of a commercially relevant zeolite, faujasite (FAU). In situ atomic force microscopy (AFM) measurements reveal that supernatant solutions extracted from a conventional FAU synthesis at various times do not result in growth, indicating that FAU growth predominantly occurs from the solid state through a disorder-to-order transition of amorphous precursors. Elemental analysis shows that supernatant solutions are significantly more siliceous than both the original growth mixture and the FAU zeolite product; however, in situ AFM studies using a dilute clear solution with a lower Si/Al ratio revealed three-dimensional growth of surfaces that is distinct from layer-by-layer and CPA pathways. This unique mechanism of growth differs from those observed in studies of other zeolites. Given that relatively few zeolite frameworks have been the subject of mechanistic investigation by in situ techniques, these observations of FAU crystallization raise the question whether its growth pathway is characteristic of other zeolite structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Impact of Parameterized Lateral Mixing on the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in a Coupled Climate Model

This study examines the impact of changing the lateral diffusion coefficient ARedi on the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The lateral diffusion coefficient ARedi is poorly constrained, with values ranging across an order of magnitude in climate models. The ACC is difficult to accurately simulate, and there is a large spread in eastward transport in the Southern Ocean (SO) in these models. This paper examines how much of that spread can be attributed to different eddy parameterization coefficients. A coarse-resolution, fully coupled model suite was run with A Redi = 400, 800, 1200, and 2400 m 2 s -1 . Additionally, two simulations were run with two-dimensional representations of the mixing coefficient based on satellite altimetry. Relative to the 400 m 2 s -1 case, the 2400 m 2 s -1 case exhibits 1) an 11% decrease in average wind stress from 50° to 65°S, 2) a 20% decrease in zonally averaged eastward transport in the SO, and 3) a 14% weaker transport through the Drake Passage. The decrease in transport is well explained by changes in the thermal current shear, largely due to increases in ocean density occurring on the northern side of the ACC. In intermediate waters these increases are associated with changes in the formation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific. We hypothesize that the deep increases are associated with changes in the wind stress curl allowing Antarctic Bottom Water to escape and flow northward.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of Plasma Etching on Dopant Compensation between p- and n-Type Poly-Si Fingers in Passivated Interdigitated Back Contact Solar Cells

Efficiencies surpassing 26% have been achieved for single-junction Si solar cells based on the interdigitated back contact (IBC) architecture. However, the possibility of lateral shunting between the doped fingers has limited industrial adoption thus far. To avoid this possibility of shunt, complicated patterning techniques of the doped rear fingers have been developed, but spreading can still occur through multiple pathways during cell processing. Patterning can be simplified by using masked plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD), but spreading during deposition will also lead to contamination of the isolation region between doped fingers. We significantly reduce the effect of this spreading through a short, gentle plasma etching step, which enables a trap-assisted compensation mechanism to take effect more easily than without the plasma etch. These two effects combined allow for the use of a simple patterning technique while still maintaining a highly resistive region between the doped fingers, and will reduce the complexity of IBC cell fabrication overall.

atom probe↗

Strong Upper-Plate Heterogeneity at the Hikurangi Subduction Margin (North Island, New Zealand) Imaged by Adjoint Tomography

We use earthquake-based adjoint tomography to invert for three-dimensional structure of the North Island, New Zealand, and the adjacent Hikurangi subduction zone. The study area, having a shallow depth to the plate interface below the North Island, offers a rare opportunity for imaging material properties at an active subduction zone using land-based measurements. Starting from an initial model derived using ray tomography, we perform iterative model updates using spectral element and adjoint simulations to fit waveforms with periods ranging from 4–30 s. We perform 28 model updates using an L-BFGS optimization algorithm, improving data fit and introducing P- and S-wave velocity changes of up to ±30%. Resolution analysis using point spread functions show that our measurements are most sensitive to heterogeneities in the upper 30 km. The most striking velocity changes coincide with areas related to the active Hikurangi subduction zone. Lateral velocity structures in the upper 5 km correlate well with New Zealand geology. Here, the inversion reveals increased along-strike heterogeneity on the margin. In Cook Strait we observe a low-velocity zone interpreted as deep sedimentary basins. In the central North Island, low-velocity anomalies are linked to surface geology, and we relate velocity structures at depth to crustal magmatic activity below the Taupō Volcanic Zone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Three Photon Excited Image Scanning Microscopy for in-Depth Super-Resolution Studies of Biological Samples

Multiphoton laser scanning microscopy is a powerful tool for deep imaging of thick biological samples. Image scanning microscopy (ISM) has demonstrated significant improvements in the signal-to-noise ratio in confocal laser scanning microscopy, while at the same time improving upon the effectively attainable resolution. Two-photon excitation (2PE), combined with ISM, has been shown to allow for deep tissue imaging with enhanced resolution compared to 2PE microscopy. Three-photon excitation (3PE) has enabled record imaging depth and contrast for multiphoton imaging, due to the superior suppression of out-of-focus signal generation. In this paper, we demonstrate super-resolution 3PE ISM. This is achieved using a single-photon avalanche detector array, and 1040-nm pulses for 3PE of blue fluorescence. This method enables subdiffraction limited resolution imaging of biological samples stained with blue fluorescent markers, such as mouse myocardial and spinal cord tissues stained with 4 ′ , 6 -diamidino-2-phenylindole. Deconvolution improves the resolving power further and allows for imaging with better than λ / 8 resolution with respect to the 3PE wavelength λ . With the ISM pixel reassignment procedure, we demonstrate a resolution enhancement of ∼ 1.6 laterally, compared to the resolution attained using a photomultiplier tube in a non-descanned detection arrangement, and a factor of ∼ 1.8 enhancement in axial resolution. The experimentally measured three-dimensional point spread function volume is shrunk ∼ 4.4 -fold, which is close to the theoretically expected enhancement. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Multiple-carrier-lifetime model for carrier dynamics in InGaN/GaN LEDs with a non-uniform carrier distribution

Here we introduce a multiple-carrier-lifetime model (MCLM) for light-emitting diodes (LEDs) with non-uniform carrier distribution, such as in multiple-quantum-well (MQW) structures. By employing the MCLM, we successfully explain the modulation response of V-pit engineered MQW LEDs, which exhibit an S 21 roll-off slower than –20 dB/decade. Using the proposed model and employing a gradient descent method, we extract effective recombination and escape lifetimes by averaging the carrier behavior across the quantum wells. Our results reveal slower effective carrier recombination and escape in MQW LEDs compared with LEDs emitting from a single QW, indicating the advantages of lower carrier density achieved through V-pit engineering. Notably, the effective carrier recombination time is more than one order of magnitude lower than the effective escape lifetime, suggesting that most carriers in the quantum wells recombine, while the escape process remains weak. To ensure the reliability and robustness of the MCLM, we subject it to a comprehensive threefold validation process. This work confirms the positive impact of spreading carriers into several quantum wells through V-pit engineering. In addition, the MCLM is applicable to other LEDs with a non-uniform carrier distribution, such as micro-LEDs with significant surface recombination and non-uniform lateral carrier profiles.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Dative Epitaxy of Commensurate Monocrystalline Covalent van der Waals Moiré Supercrystal

Realizing van der Waals (vdW) epitaxy in the 1980s represents a breakthrough that circumvents the stringent lattice matching and processing compatibility requirements in conventional covalent heteroepitaxy. However, due to the weak vdW interactions, there is little control over film qualities by the substrate. Typically, discrete domains with a spread of misorientation angles are formed, limiting the applicability of vdW epitaxy. In this study, the epitaxial growth of monocrystalline, covalent Cr 5 Te 8 2D crystals on monolayer vdW WSe 2 by chemical vapor deposition is reported, driven by interfacial dative bond formation. The lattice of Cr 5 Te 8 , with a lateral dimension of a few tens of micrometers, is fully commensurate with that of WSe 2 via 3 × 3 (Cr 5 Te 8 )/7 × 7 (WSe 2 ) supercell matching, forming a single-crystalline moiré superlattice. This work establishes a conceptually distinct paradigm of thin-film epitaxy, termed “dative epitaxy”, which takes full advantage of covalent epitaxy with chemical bonding for fixing the atomic registry and crystal orientation, while circumventing its stringent lattice matching and processing compatibility requirements; conversely, it ensures the full flexibility of vdW epitaxy, while avoiding its poor orientation control. Cr 5 Te 8 2D crystals grown by dative epitaxy exhibit square magnetic hysteresis, suggesting minimized interfacial defects that can serve as pinning sites.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tracking the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic Using the Evolutionary Rate

This project aimed to track the developing COVID-19 epidemic through measuring the virus evolutionary rate. This may give us a way to estimate the impact of prevention campaigns and other changes in the epidemiology that we otherwise would have difficulty to estimate. Based on our previous knowledge of how viruses are affected by their environment, we investigated how spread and prevention measures may affect the virus evolutionary rate. We found that SARS-CoV-2, which causes the COVID-19 epidemic, evolves relatively slow as compared to other RNA viruses. Thus, this makes it hard to see rate changes and track the spread at a fine scale. This did in fact mislead several high-profile reports in the early phases of the epidemic. We published comments and editorials in leading journals on this. Because the COVID-19 epidemic is till ongoing, and much data is still incoming, it is likely that evolutionary-epidemiological analyses will reveal important facts later on.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The future of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation: using large ensembles to illuminate time-varying responses and inter-model differences

Future changes in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are uncertain, both because future projections differ between climate models and because the large internal variability of ENSO clouds the diagnosis of forced changes in observations and individual climate model simulations. By leveraging 14 single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), we robustly isolate the time-evolving response of ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) variability to anthropogenic forcing from internal variability in each SMILE. We find nonlinear changes in time in many models and considerable inter-model differences in projected changes in ENSO and the mean-state tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient. We demonstrate a linear relationship between the change in ENSO SST variability and the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient, although forced changes in the tropical Pacific SST gradient often occur later in the 21st century than changes in ENSO SST variability, which can lead to departures from the linear relationship. Single-forcing SMILEs show a potential contribution of anthropogenic forcing (aerosols and greenhouse gases) to historical changes in ENSO SST variability, while the observed historical strengthening of the tropical Pacific SST gradient sits on the edge of the model spread for those models for which single-forcing SMILEs are available. Our results highlight the value of SMILEs for investigating time-dependent forced responses and inter-model differences in ENSO projections. The nonlinear changes in ENSO SST variability found in many models demonstrate the importance of characterizing this time-dependent behavior, as it implies that ENSO impacts may vary dramatically throughout the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-modal characterization methods of solid-electrolyte interphase in silicon-graphite composite electrodes

Composite silicon-graphite (Si-Gr) anodes can improve battery energy density, due to Si's high gravimetric capacity, while mitigating mechanical degradation of the anode and solid-electrolyte interphase (SEI) caused by Si volumetric expansion. Optimizing these anodes is challenging, in part due to difficulty characterizing the SEI structure and composition. In this work, we present multi-modal characterization of the SEI on composite Si-Gr anodes to relate SEI chemical composition and structure to functional properties. Discrepancies in elemental concentrations from X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, Auger electron spectroscopy, and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) are attributed to varying information depth and lateral resolution of the individual probes. However, by combining quantitative composition information with spatially resolved element mapping from scanning transmission electron microscopy, EDS, and electron energy loss spectroscopy, a holistic picture of the SEI emerges. We observe the bilayer SEI structure and a direct correlation between elemental Li and F, suggesting that most Li in the SEI exists as lithium fluoride (LiF). Further, LiF concentration is directly proportional to the maximum SEI resistivity, as determined by scanning spreading resistance microscopy. Lastly, there is an inverse relationship between lithium carbonate and LiF concentration in the SEI, providing insight into the detailed chemistry of SEI formation and evolution.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Biomechanics of Indirect Traumatic Optic Neuropathy Using a Computational Head Model With a Biofidelic Orbit

Indirect traumatic optic neuropathy (ITON) is an injury to the optic nerve due to head trauma and usually results in partial or complete loss of vision. In order to advance a mechanistic understanding of the injury to the optic nerve, we developed a head model with a biofidelic orbit. Head impacts were simulated under controlled conditions of impactor velocity. The locations of impact were varied to include frontal, lateral, and posterior parts of the head. Impact studies were conducted using two types of impactors that differed in their rigidity relative to the skull. The simulated results from both the impactors suggest that forehead impacts are those to which the optic nerve is most vulnerable. The mode and location of optic nerve injury is significantly different between the impacting conditions. Simulated results using a relatively rigid impactor (metal cylinder) suggest optic nerve injury initiates at the location of the intracranial end of the optic canal and spreads to the regions of the optic nerve in the vicinity of the optic canal. In this case, the deformation of the skull at the optic canal, resulting in deformation of the optic nerve, was the primary mode of injury. On the other hand, simulated results using a relatively compliant impactor (soccer ball) suggest that primary mode of injury comes from the brain tugging upon the optic nerve (from where it is affixed to the intracranial end of the optic canal) during coup countercoup motion of the brain. This study represents the first published effort to employ a biofidelic simulation of the full length of the optic nerve in which the orbit is integrated within the whole head.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Data from: "Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest"

This data package contains data used to support conclusions drawn in “Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest”, by Kueppers et al. 2017. Data were collected in field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), located on Niwot Ridge, on the eastern slope of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA. Files containing geospatial data are also included, to provide additional locational context.There are four document formats associated with this archive: three comma-separated values (.csv) files, three Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) files, one .pdf data user’s guide, four keyhole markup language (.kml) files, and a compressed folder containing seven ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The .csv files can be opened using any simple text-editor software, R, or Microsoft Excel. The .xlsx files can only be opened using Microsoft Excel. The .kml file can be opened by Google Earth and Google Maps, and the shapefiles can be opened with any GIS application compatible with the file type, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS, and QGIS.We provide two versions of the seedling data file: “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20150522_20150525rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015) and “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20160408rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016). PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015 contains the data we used in the paper. PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016 contains an updated version of these data that includes sampling from later years. The main differences between the two files lie in the columns titled “k[YEAR],” which describe the number of seedlings that were killed in a particular year. In PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016, there also is an additional year of data for k2015, and k2014 also has additional data input for the 2014 cohort. Additionally, in years 2010-2014, there are minor differences in the number of seedlings killed -- in as few as 0 plots (in 2011) to as many as 5 plots (in 2014) -- due to errors in data input that were rectified in later years.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Upslope range shifts by subalpine tree species are a widely anticipated effect of climate change. Climate niche models predict subalpine forests to expand upslope, given more suitable growing conditions for adult trees. However, these models do not take into account climates required for successful seedling recruitment and establishment, an essential element for expansion. Further, localized upper treeline populations are hypothesized to contain favorable traits for colonizing the alpine. To test these expectations and to expand our knowledge of seedling recruitment under climate change, we designed a common garden, climate-warming experiment spread across an elevation gradient at Niwot Ridge in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We focus on two widespread Western North American species, Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex. Engelm) and limber pine (Pinus flexilis James), which occur at treeline. While the former is considered a late-seral species more tolerant of shade, limber pine is a shade-intolerant pioneer species able to establish on infertile sites.Every autumn, seeds of the two species were collected from high- (3370 m–3570 m) and low-provenance (2910–3240 m) sources close to the experimental sites and sown in our plots. A subset of plots were heated and another subset watered over the summer months to offset the effects of warming. Across five years, we found that seeds originating from low elevation recruited more strongly for both species, although this provenance difference diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. Despite the recruitment of low-provenance seed, warming treatments decreased recruitment at all elevations. Combining this with the likeliness and availability of lower-quality, high provenance seed moving upslope at the treeline, tree migration into the alpine may be slowed. Overall, our findings suggest that the hardier limber pine is likely to become a more significant species in subalpine forest communities in the future, while the more sensitive Engelmann spruce may experience range contraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Arctic Aerosol Sources and Mixing States Field Campaign Report

The Arctic is warming at a faster rate than anywhere else on Earth, with rapidly shrinking sea ice extent transforming the region. Depending on chemical and physical properties, atmospheric aerosols directly scatter and/or absorb radiation, serve as cloud droplet and/or ice crystal nuclei, and/or reduce the reflectiveness of the snow surface, thereby altering the atmospheric energy budget. There is a wide spread in the magnitude of simulated arctic aerosol radiative forcing, and significant differences in aerosol concentration levels and seasonal cycles often exist between models and observations. Increasing local natural and anthropogenic emissions are significant, with uncertain climate impacts due to complex feedbacks. Model evaluations, however, are limited by the dearth of arctic aerosol observations available and an inadequate understanding of arctic aerosol processes. The majority of previous arctic aerosol observations have been made through intensive spring/summer field campaigns, with few intensive measurement studies focused on the fall-winter transition, a period when freeze-up is occurring later and thinning sea ice is resulting in wintertime ice fracturing. Aerosol monitoring at arctic coastal stations has provided knowledge of long-term seasonal trends in aerosol concentrations. The completed ARM field campaign addresses observational and knowledge gaps through detailed aerosol size and chemical composition measurements during the fall-winter transition in the coastal Arctic and through the entire annual cycle in the central Arctic. The observations are improving our understanding of the sources and processes controlling the aerosol population in the rapidly changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Laser-heated capillary discharge plasma waveguides for electron acceleration to 8 GeV

A plasma channel created by the combination of a capillary discharge and inverse Bremsstrahlung laser heating enabled the generation of electron bunches with energy up to 7.8 GeV in a laser-driven plasma accelerator. The capillary discharge created an initial plasma channel and was used to tune the plasma temperature, which optimized laser heating. Although optimized colder initial plasma temperatures reduced the ionization degree, subsequent ionization from the heater pulse created a fully ionized plasma on-axis. The heater pulse duration was chosen to be longer than the hydrodynamic timescale of ≈ 1 ns, such that later temporal slices were more efficiently guided by the channel created by the front of the pulse. Here, simulations are presented which show that this thermal self-guiding of the heater pulse enabled channel formation over 20 cm. The post-heated channel had lower on-axis density and increased focusing strength compared to relying on the discharge alone, which allowed for guiding of relativistically intense laser pulses with a peak power of 0.85 PW and wakefield acceleration over 15 diffraction lengths. Electrons were injected into the wake in multiple buckets and times, leading to several electron bunches with different peak energies. To create single electron bunches with low energy spread, experiments using localized ionization injection inside a capillary discharge waveguide were performed. A single injected bunch with energy 1.6 GeV, charge 38 pC, divergence 1 mrad, and relative energy spread below 2% full-width half-maximum was produced in a 3.3 cm-long capillary discharge waveguide. This development shows promise for mitigation of energy spread and future high efficiency staged acceleration experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗