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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Deterministic High-Fidelity Neutronics Simulation of Pebble Bed Reactors Using Pebble Tracking Transport

The pebble tracking transport (PTT) algorithm offers a high-fidelity deterministic approach for neutron transport for pebble bed reactors (PBRs). This approach requires the mesh for the active-core region to consist exclusively of tetrahedral elements, where each node in the pebble-packing region represents a pebble centroid. This paper investigates the application of PTT for full-scale PBRs, considering both the isothermal and the temperature-dependent core conditions. Macroscopic cross sections are generated using Serpent 2 full-core eigenvalue simulations where pebbles are grouped into disjoint subsets using machine learning. To minimize the need for individual cross-section sets for each pebble in the core, K-means clustering is used to group pebbles by temperature and neutronic environment parameters. Here, we compare the multiplication factor and power rate distributions between PTT simulations using the Griffin reactor physics software and reference solutions from Serpent 2. Our analysis shows that a full-core, high-fidelity PTT calculation produces accurate results with minimal local (pebblewise) errors. Additionally, timing results indicate that PTT simulations converge rapidly on modern supercomputing platforms.

Griffin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Systematic characterization of unknown compounds via dimensionality reduction of time series

Analysis of ambient aerosols provides valuable insight into particle sources and formation chemistry. However, due to the complexity of atmospheric data and the dynamic nature of aerosol composition, a substantial fraction of data often become discarded by conventional analysis methods. Furthermore, a large fraction of chemical species within those data are unidentifiable due to a lack of matching spectral information, resulting in suboptimal characterization of chemical composition. Previous work has demonstrated techniques for cataloging analytes in a chromatographic dataset by deconvolution of mass spectra, but integration of these analytes throughout a large dataset remains time consuming. Here, we present a method to automatically identify an ion for quantitation for single-ion chromatogram based peak fitting and integration, enabling comprehensive integration of analytes with minimal user interaction. The resulting time series are clustered with a machine-learning based dimensionality reduction technique to systematically investigate the underlying characteristics of the categorized analytes and gain new insights into the chemical composition and physicochemical properties of the unidentifiable analytes. We apply these methods to existing atmospheric datasets collected in Manacapuru, Brazil during the GoAmazon2014/5 campaign to identify new analytes and interpret their variability and transformations in the atmosphere. The analysis results generate 408 time series from cataloged analytes of interest, and the clustering of those time series with spherical k-means results in 8 distinct clusters. We find the analytes form clusters based on their distinct physicochemical properties, demonstrating the method’s ability to systematically identify and selectively filter contaminants and instrumental analytes and characterize the unidentifiable analytes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A weather pattern responsible for increasing wildfires in the western United States

Abstract The western United States (U.S.) has been experiencing more severe wildfires, in part due to climate change, but the underlying synoptic patterns and their modulation in driving fire weather is unclear. Here we investigated the relationship between weather regimes (WRs) and fire weather indices, specifically vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. By identifying five singular WRs using k-means clustering, we found that a particular regime (WR-2), one characterized by a distinct tripolar wave train pattern over the continental U.S., has exhibited an increased frequency since 1980. The ascribed WR-2 regime was found to be mainly responsible for rising trends in the fire weather indices, especially VPD. Further, the average fire indices of the WR-2 regime played a more important role than the frequency in shaping the rising trends in the fire weather indices. The increased frequency of the WR-2 WR was mainly attributed to anthropogenic forcing and, the year-to-year variation of the frequency was associated with sea surface temperature anomalies over the subtropical eastern Pacific. Human-induced climate change might have furthered the exacerbation of wildfire danger in the western U.S. by modulating the behaviors of WRs and fire weather indices.

Zhang, Wei (ORCID:0000000221698749)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing transfer learning in angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES) with spatially-aware representations via graph convolution

A recent application of machine learning has been to spatially-resolved angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES). Here we advance the state-of-the-art by applying representational learning to transform ARPES data into an embedding space of a pre-trained self-supervised learning model, thus enhancing the pipeline that improves the bandstructure classification and domain assignment/segmentation performance compared to a k-means clustering method. In the current iteration, the real-space information is entered into the domain assignment through the graph convolution method, which improves the transfer learning performance of the original self-supervised model. Lastly, an unsupervised automated tool is developed that incorporates these techniques to enable automatic domain assignment.

ARPES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Near-term heatwave risk in HighResMIP models across different temperature zones of West Africa

This study projects near-future (2031–2050) changes in heatwave (HW) risk across West Africa (WA) using an ensemble of eight high-resolution global climate models from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project under a high-emission scenario. Using K-means clustering, we divided WA into four unique temperature zones and examined projected changes in extreme temperatures, HW occurrence and magnitude. Our results indicate a statistically significant increase in future HW events across most parts of WA, although considerable spread exists over the region and among individual models. The most pronounced increases are evident in the Sahel/Sahara and the Guinea Highlands subregions, with an ensemble mean increase of ∼10 HW events per year. In contrast, the lowest increase in HW events is projected in central WA, with increases ranging between 1 and 5 events per year. Similarly, the magnitude of HW events is projected to increase in most models, with Sahel/Sahara exhibiting the largest increases. Additionally, projections suggest that the strongest HWs will become more frequent, particularly in northern and southwestern WA. These findings highlight significant spatial heterogeneity in future HW risk across WA, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation strategies.

HighResMIP↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transfer Learning Trained LSTM Models for Household Load Profile Forecasting

Grid edge renewable energy resources, such as rooftop solar photovoltaics, closely interact with consumer load profiles. Therefore, forecasting future electricity demand, ideally at the individual household level, is indispensable. In this paper, we present a transfer learning enhanced household load profile forecasting method. First, we tune a long short-term memory forecasting model to perform day-ahead prediction of household electricity load profiles. Then we improve these individualized models using transfer learning, and we use k-means clustering to create optimal source data sets. We find average improvements of 4.38% (largest improvement of 10.71%) when the entire data set was used to train the source model and 2.45% (largest improvement of 11.57%) in the mean absolute error when households were first clustered and used to train separate source models for each cluster. We find that transfer learning with clustered data can effectively boost the forecasting performance of the LSTM models. We use realistic household power measurements for 148 real residential households in Austin, Texas.

deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying and Zoning Urban Heat Island Effects Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

This work explores the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects in Maricopa County, Arizona, employing a simulation-based approach that combines large-scale building energy modeling with advanced spatial analysis. Utilizing the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software suite, we simulated the energy consumption for approximately 1.35 million buildings based on the Model America version 1.0 (MAv1) dataset. Our methodology incorporated spatial analysis at multiple scales, including individual buildings, clusters of zones determined by K-means clustering, and geographical level evaluation based on Zip codes. The results revealed significant variations in energy consumption and heat emissions across different building types and urban zones. High-emission hotspots identified through clustering pointed to areas most contributing to the UHI effects. Zip code-based area analysis further contextualized these findings, offering an urban context-based perspective on emission distribution and informing potential urban energy policies for mitigating UHI effects.

Chowdhury, Shovan [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regime Characterization of Offshore Wind Resource Using Unsupervised Learning

Predictability of wind resource conditions is critical for offshore wind design and operations. While many studies of extreme wind conditions focus on specific events such as low-level jets or ramps, these rely on threshold definitions that limit generality. Here we present a data-driven framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), self-organizing maps (SOM), and k-means clustering to classify wind resource conditions as typical and anomalous from climatological data. Anomalies are defined not by fixed thresholds but by flagging samples located far from SOM node centers inside the baseline SOM structure. This reframes extremes as rare ebents and hence, likely difficult to anticipate by numerical weather prediction models. We applied this approach to 23 years (2000–2022) of hourly profiles from the NOW-23 hindcast model at the Humboldt Wind Energy Area. Classification is conducted on a feature space consisting of 10 m wind speed and direction, bulk shear and veer across 30–270 m, and a low-level jet index. Dimensionality reduction is achieved through PC. A 2 × 3 OM lattice trained on the PCA vectors identified six baseline regimes spanning weak to strong flow states. High quantization-error profiles are identified and re-clustered into four anomalous regimes. The baseline regimes exhibited clear seasonal and diurnal cycles. Meanwhile, the anomalous regimes represented <10 % of all hours but showed distinct combinations of speed, shear, and veer, when compared to the baseline regimes. Anomalous regimes are typically short-lived (~few hours), yet their transitions can lead to hub-height wind changes of −18 to +9 m s -1 . For a representative 15 MW turbine, these shifts imply rapid swings in capacity factor from near-full output to negligible generation. Validation with lidar buoy data showed 51% agreement in SOM labels across ~6,000 overlapping hours, with most mismatches confined to adjacent speed classes. HRRR comparisons further revealed that anomalous regimes were disproportionately associated with forecast biases exceeding 5 m s -1 . Together, these results reframe extremes in offshore wind from absolute maxima or minima to weather states that are difficult to anticipate from models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electron-Proton Scattering Event Generation using Structured Tokenization

Recent work such as Omnijet-$\alpha$ has demonstrated that effective tokenization combined with transformer-based architectures can produce effective foundation models for jet physics. While tokenization may help models capture generalizable event characteristics, it also introduces discretization errors that may compromise the precision required for downstream physics analyses. As the number and complexity of the particle features grow, these errors are likely to grow proportionally. In this study, we investigate new tokenization strategies to improve the application of generative transformer models to \textsc{Pythia8} simulations of electron-proton scattering at the Electron-Ion Collider. Specifically, we propose a feature-based structured tokenization approach that utilizes multiple tokens per particle, improving expressivity, while reducing the total number of unique tokens needed. We evaluate this method against grid-based binning, K-means clustering, and vector-quantized variational auto-encoders on the event simulations. Our results show that feature-based structured tokenization reduces discretization error, leading to more accurate generative modeling of particle-level events.

Goldenberg, Steven [Thomas Jefferson National Acce↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Anomaly Detection in Neural Network Security and SRF Cavities

This dissertation explores the development and deployment of machine learning approaches to address critical challenges in anomaly detection across two distinct domains: neural network security in federated learning settings and cavity behavior analysis in particle accelerator operations at Jefferson Lab in Newport News, Virginia. Anomaly detection identifies deviations from expected patterns, safeguarding systems in cybersecurity, industry, and research against malicious activities and failures. This dissertation demonstrates how our machine learning approaches enhance detection accuracy and efficiency in both neural network security and industrial applications. First, we investigate vulnerabilities in deep neural networks deployed in federated learning. Although federated learning preserves user privacy by training models locally, it remains vulnerable to backdoor attacks, in which malicious participants embed hidden triggers that induce targeted misbehavior. We propose a self-supervised contrastive learning framework to detect and mitigate such backdoor attacks. In our experiments, this method achieves higher detection accuracy and lower false positive rates than existing defenses, while operating without access to local model updates or original training data and thus preserving the privacy guarantees of the federated setting. Second, we address the operational reliability of superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). Our research leverages an unsupervised learning approach, combined with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and k-means clustering, to identify anomalous behaviors in SRF cavities. Our method detects subtle anomalous behavior by analyzing SRF signal data. This knowledge allows for the early detection and resolution of potential faults, significantly improving the efficiency and reliability of operations. Third, we extend these insights to time-series anomaly detection more broadly. We design a contrastive-learning based model tailored to increasingly dynamic environments and academic research. This model improves detection accuracy in settings that require real-time monitoring and predictive maintenance. Our research underscores the broader applicability and impact of advanced machine learning techniques in anomaly detection. By extracting meaningful patterns from complex data, machine learning can significantly enhance security in distributed neural networks and improve the efficiency of particle accelerator operations. This dissertation serves as a stepping stone for future investigations into the vast possibilities of anomaly detection, inspiring further exploration and development of machine learning techniques in this field.

Ferguson, Hal [Old Dominion University]↗
DOE OSTI2026

From microbial diversity to functional potential using dimensionality reduction

The high dimensionality of microbial diversity data from ‘omics observations can be reduced using Machine Learning, with many recent studies showcasing ML utility for exploratory ecological feature finding and process prediction. Here, we compare the Self Organizing Map (SOM) dimensionality reduction method to the well-documented sample-based Principal Coordinate Analysis (PCoA) and taxa-based Weighted Gene Correlation Network Analysis (WGCNA) using near daily 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing data from the 2019 to 2020 MOSAiC International Arctic Drift Expedition. We then map k-means clustering outputs from each method to available metagenomes, extracting functionally distinct seasonal microbial ecotypes in the surface Arctic Ocean. Our results indicate the SOM method better represented expected seasonal transitions and identified a greater number of metabolically distinct functional groups than the more traditional PCoA ordination. Ultimately, we identified four community ecotypes with distinct taxonomic and functional cut-offs driven by seasonality, water mass, and substrate turnover, highlighting the importance of succession in functional diversity for the central Arctic Ocean. These results reinforce ML dimensionality reduction as a meaningful translator in the mining of historical amplicon datasets to address modern mechanistic questions and potentially provide ’omics informed ecotype diversity to leverage in mechanistic biogeochemical models.

Arctic Ocean↗
DOE OSTI2025

Entropy-Assisted Quality Pattern Identification in Finance

Short-term patterns in financial time series form the cornerstone of many algorithmic trading strategies, yet extracting these patterns reliably from noisy market data remains a formidable challenge. In this paper, we propose an entropy-assisted framework for identifying high-quality, non-overlapping patterns that exhibit consistent behavior over time. We ground our approach in the premise that historical patterns, when accurately clustered and pruned, can yield substantial predictive power for short-term price movements. To achieve this, we incorporate an entropy-based measure as a proxy for information gain: patterns that lead to high one-sided movements in historical data yet retain low local entropy are more “informative” in signaling future market direction. Compared to conventional clustering techniques such as K-means and Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs), which often yield biased or unbalanced groupings, our approach emphasizes balance over a forced visual boundary, ensuring that quality patterns are not lost due to over-segmentation. By emphasizing both predictive purity (low local entropy) and historical profitability, our method achieves a balanced representation of Buy and Sell patterns, making it better suited for short-term algorithmic trading strategies. This paper offers an in-depth illustration of our entropy-assisted framework through two case studies on Gold vs. USD and GBPUSD. While these examples demonstrate the method’s potential for extracting high-quality patterns, they do not constitute an exhaustive survey of all possible asset classes.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

A bi-level spatiotemporal clustering approach and its application to drought extraction

We present a novel flexible bi-level spatiotemporal clustering algorithm to extract events based on their intensity and spatiotemporal structures. Our algorithm consists of using (i) a novel space-time k-means clustering to obtain spatiotemporally coherent intensity clusters, and (ii) a density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) to spatiotemporally section the intensity clusters into individual events. We discuss the development of the algorithm, the selection, tuning and meaning of the parameters within each step, as well as its validation. Finally, we apply the algorithm to a spatiotemporal drought index, standardized vapor pressure deficit drought index (SVDI), over the continental United States (US) from 1980–2021 and show that it captures historical drought events over the continental United States and their spatiotemporal extents.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1972

Unsupervised classification of remote multispectral sensing data

The new unsupervised classification technique for classifying multispectral remote sensing data which can be either from the multispectral scanner or digitized color-separation aerial photographs consists of two parts: (a) a sequential statistical clustering which is a one-pass sequential variance analysis and (b) a generalized K-means clustering. In this composite clustering technique, the output of (a) is a set of initial clusters which are input to (b) for further improvement by an iterative scheme. Applications of the technique using an IBM-7094 computer on multispectral data sets over Purdue's Flight Line C-1 and the Yellowstone National Park test site have been accomplished. Comparisons between the classification maps by the unsupervised technique and the supervised maximum liklihood technique indicate that the classification accuracies are in agreement.

Su, M. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Mapping of terrain by computer clustering techniques using multispectral scanner data and using color aerial film

Two clustering techniques were used for terrain mapping by computer of test sites in Yellowstone National Park. One test was made with multispectral scanner data using a composite technique which consists of (1) a strictly sequential statistical clustering which is a sequential variance analysis, and (2) a generalized K-means clustering. In this composite technique, the output of (1) is a first approximation of the cluster centers. This is the input to (2) which consists of steps to improve the determination of cluster centers by iterative procedures. Another test was made using the three emulsion layers of color-infrared aerial film as a three-band spectrometer. Relative film densities were analyzed using a simple clustering technique in three-color space. Important advantages of the clustering technique over conventional supervised computer programs are (1) human intervention, preparation time, and manipulation of data are reduced, (2) the computer map, gives unbiased indication of where best to select the reference ground control data, (3) use of easy to obtain inexpensive film, and (4) the geometric distortions can be easily rectified by simple standard photogrammetric techniques.

Smedes, H. W.↗
NASA NTRS1972

The composite sequential clustering technique for analysis of multispectral scanner data

The clustering technique consists of two parts: (1) a sequential statistical clustering which is essentially a sequential variance analysis, and (2) a generalized K-means clustering. In this composite clustering technique, the output of (1) is a set of initial clusters which are input to (2) for further improvement by an iterative scheme. This unsupervised composite technique was employed for automatic classification of two sets of remote multispectral earth resource observations. The classification accuracy by the unsupervised technique is found to be comparable to that by traditional supervised maximum likelihood classification techniques. The mathematical algorithms for the composite sequential clustering program and a detailed computer program description with job setup are given.

Su, M. Y.↗