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At least 37 records · Page 2

Evaluation of Naturally Occurring Be-7 Activity on LANL Stack Filter Clumps

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is responsible for providing solutions to challenging issues through multidisciplinary science, engineering, and technology that impact national security. As part of the Radioactive Air Emissions Management (RAEM) Team, it is our responsibility to ensure LANL operates within the requirements of the Code of Federal Regulations 40 CFR 61, Subpart H, National Emission Standards for Emissions of Radionuclides Other Than Radon From Department of Energy Facilities (Rad-NESHAP). The standard states, “Emissions of radionuclides to the ambient air from Department of Energy facilities shall not exceed those amounts that would cause any member of the public to receive in any year an effective dose equivalent of 10 mrem/yr” (EPA, 2002) During a routine assessment of LANL’s Rad-NESHAP compliance program, an opportunity for improvement was identified that addresses the evaluation of routine stack samples which potentially have naturally occurring radioactive materials (NORM) on the filter media. In the past and based on professional judgment, detections of NORM such as K-40 and Be-7 typically were rejected from the analytical results. The assessment finding suggested developing a technical criterion to ensure that such rejections were justified, comparing actual measured values with anticipated NORM concentrations for various stacks located at LANL. The significance of accepting or rejecting samples as “true” or “NORM” and its impact on the RAEM’s mission and compliance to the regulations is explained later in the document. Additionally, this document will describe the process and calculations for how such results are to be accepted as actual samples “true positive” or rejected as NORM.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Microgravity Science in Space Flight Gloveboxes

Microgravity science studies the influences of gravity on phenomena in fluids, materials processes, combustion, and human cell growth in the low acceleration environment of space flight. During the last decade, the accomplishment of the flight research in the field has evolved into an effective cooperation between the flight crew in the Shuttle and the ground-based investigator using real-time communication via voice and video links. This team structure has led to interactive operations in which the crew performs the experimentation while guided, as necessary, by the science investigator who formulated the investigation and who will subsequently interpret and analyze the data. One of the primary challenges to implementing this interactive research has been the necessity of structuring a means of handling fluids, gases, and hazardous materials in a manned laboratory that exhibits the novelty of weightlessness. Developing clever means of designing experiments in closed vessels is part of the solution- but the space flight requirement for one and two failure-tolerant containment systems leads to serious complications in the physical handling of sample materials. In response to the conflict between the clear advantage of human operation and judgment, versus the necessity to isolate the experiment from the crewmember and the spacecraft environment, the Microgravity Research Program has initiated a series of Gloveboxes in the various manned experiment carriers. These units provide a sealed containment vessel whose interior is under a negative pressure with respect to the ambient environment but is accessible to a crewmember through the glove ports.

Baugher, Charles↗

Psychosocial Modeling of Insider Threat Risk Based on Behavioral and Word Use Analysis

In many insider crimes, managers and other coworkers observed that the offenders had exhibited signs of stress, disgruntlement, or other issues, but no alarms were raised. Barriers to using such psychosocial indicators include the inability to recognize the signs and the failure to record the behaviors so that they can be assessed. A psychosocial model was developed to assess an employee’s behavior associated with an increased risk of insider abuse. The model is based on case studies and research literature on factors/correlates associated with precursor behavioral manifestations of individuals committing insider crimes. A complementary Personality Factor modeling approach was developed based on analysis to derive relevant personality characteristics from word use. Several implementations of the psychosocial model were evaluated by comparing their agreement with judgments of human resources and management professionals; the personality factor modeling approach was examined using email samples. If implemented in an operational setting, these models should be part of a set of management tools for employee assessment to identify employees who pose a greater insider threat.

behavioral modeling↗

NASA aviation safety reporting system

A sample of reports relating to operations during winter weather is presented. Several reports involving problems of judgment and decisionmaking have been selected from the numerous reports representative of this area. Problems related to aeronautical charts are discussed in a number of reports. An analytic study of reports involving potential conflicts in the immediate vicinity of uncontrolled airports was performed; the results are discussed in this report. It was found that in three-fourths of 127 such conflicts, neither pilot, or only one of the pilots, was communicating position and intentions on the appropriate frequency. The importance of providing aural transfer of information, as a backup to the visual see and avoid mode of information transfer is discussed. It was also found that a large fraction of pilots involved in potential conflicts on final approach had executed straight-in approaches, rather than the recommended traffic pattern entries, prior to the conflicts. A selection of alert bulletins and responses to them by various segments of the aviation community is presented.

Source record↗

Eucalyptus – An Analysis Suite for Fault Trees with Uncertainty Quantification

Eucalyptus is a novel code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to incorporate uncertainty quantification into Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). This tool addresses the challenge of imperfect knowledge in “grey-box” systems by allowing analysts to incorporate and propagate uncertainty from component-level assessments to system-level effects. Eucalyptus facilitates a consistent evaluation of the impact of subject matter expert judgment and knowledge gaps on overall system response by Monte Carlo generation of possible system fault trees, sampling probabilities of the existence of subsystems and components. Here, the code supports the specification of fault trees through text and allows export to various formats, including auto-generated images, easing analysis and reducing errors. It has undergone extensive verification testing, demonstrating its reliability and readiness for deployment, and leverages on-node parallelism for rapid analysis. Example analyses are shown that include the identification of system failure paths and quantification of the value of further information about system components.

Fault Tree Analysis↗

Adaptive Sampling using Support Vector Machines

Reliability/safety analysis of stochastic dynamic systems (e.g., nuclear power plants, airplanes, chemical plants) is currently performed through a combination of Event-Tress and Fault-Trees. However, these conventional methods suffer from certain drawbacks: • Timing of events is not explicitly modeled • Ordering of events is preset by the analyst • The modeling of complex accident scenarios is driven by expert-judgment For these reasons, there is currently an increasing interest into the development of dynamic PRA methodologies since they can be used to address the deficiencies of conventional methods listed above.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Quantitative Exposure Assessment Professional Judgment Validation Study

Professional judgement is a key element of an exposure assessment program. Industrial hygienists frequently rely on it to make judgements about the acceptability of occupational exposures to chemical, biological, and physical agents. Often this must be done with little or no quantitative sampling data. This is especially true in the case of research and development, where activities may be short duration and non-routine. In this situation there are very limited opportunities for sampling, and therefore, professional judgement becomes a major tool industrial hygienists rely upon. One of the limitations of professional judgement is that exposures may be misclassified. That is, an exposure deemed to be unacceptable may in fact be acceptable and unnecessary effort and expense may be incurred as a result. On the other hand, an exposure may be judged acceptable when it is in fact unacceptable, resulting in an overexposure and potential injury or illness. It is therefore crucial that professional judgement be validated. In this study we evaluated 106 acceptable exposure determinations with retrospective quantitative exposure monitoring to validate the performance of Sandia National Laboratory industrial hygienists at performing exposure determinations with professional judgement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Carbonaceous Chondrite Based Simulant of Phobos

In support of an ESA-funded concept study considering a sample return mission, a simulant of the Martian moon Phobos was needed. There are no samples of the Phobos regolith, therefore none of the four characteristics normally used to design a simulant are explicitly known for Phobos. Because of this, specifications for a Phobos simulant were based on spectroscopy, other remote measurements, and judgment. A composition based on the Tagish Lake meteorite was assumed. The requirement that sterility be achieved, especially given the required organic content, was unusual and problematic. The final design mixed JSC-1A, antigorite, pseudo-agglutinates and gilsonite. Sterility was achieved by radiation in a commercial facility.

simulant↗

A Tool Measuring Remaining Thickness of Notched Acoustic Cavities in Primary Reaction Control Thruster NDI Standards

Stress corrosion cracking in the relief radius area of a space shuttle primary reaction control thruster is an issue of concern. The current approach for monitoring of potential crack growth is nondestructive inspection (NDI) of remaining thickness (RT) to the acoustic cavities using an eddy current or remote field eddy current probe. EDM manufacturers have difficulty in providing accurate RT calibration standards. Significant error in the RT values of NDI calibration standards could lead to a mistaken judgment of cracking condition of a thruster under inspection. A tool based on eddy current principle has been developed to measure the RT at each acoustic cavity of a calibration standard in order to validate that the standard meets the sample design criteria.

Sun, Yushi↗

Subjective assessment of simulated helicopter blade-slap noise

The effects of several characteristics of helicopter blade slap upon human annoyance are examined. Blade slap noise was simulated by using continuous and impulsive noises characterized by five parameters: The number of sine waves in a single impulse; the frequency of the sine waves; the impulse repetition frequency; the sound pressure level (SPL) of the continuous noise; and the idealized crest factor of the impulses. Ten second samples of noise were synthesized with each of the five parameters at representative levels. The annoyance of each noise was judged by 40 human subjects. Analysis of the subjective data indicated that each of the five parameters had a statistically significant effect upon the annoyance judgments. The impulse crest factor and SPL of the continuous noise had very strong positive relationships with annoyance. The other parameters had smaller, but still significant, effects upon the annoyance judgments.

Lawton, B. W.↗

Communication of Energy Efficiency Information to Remodelers: Lessons From Current Practice

The effective communication of energy efficiency and building science information to remodeling contractors is achieved through varying formats, timelines, and modes depending on who is delivering the information, who is intended to receive it, and what technical, intellectual,and time resources the recipients have at their disposal. Determining what type of communication is effective does notlend itself to a clearly quantifiable test but rather a qualitative one. That qualitative judgment can be supported by the research of current practices deemed effective for one or more of the following reasons: it has led to the successful completion of a certifying test or other evaluation, it has been widely used for the remodeling industry, it has been considered effective by a sampling ofremodeling contractors, and/or it has proven effective in the field for the BARA team. These criteria were used to create a select list of communications to be further analyzed to determine why they are effective and how less successful formats or strategies can be revised for greater effectiveness.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A Report on the Validation of Beryllium Strength Models

This report discusses work on validating beryllium strength models with flyer plate and Taylor rod experimental data. Strength models are calibrated with Hopkinson bar and quasi-static data. The Hopkinson bar data for beryllium provides strain rates up to about 4000 per second. A limitation of the Hopkinson bar data for beryllium is that it only provides information on strain up to about 0.15. The lack of high strain data at high strain rates makes it difficult to distinguish between various strength model settings. The PTW model has been calibrated many different times over the last 12 years. The lack of high strain data for high strain rates has resulted in these calibrated PTW models for beryllium exhibiting significantly different behavior when extrapolated to high strain. For beryllium, the α parameter of PTW has recently been calibrated to high precision shear modulus data. In the past the α value for beryllium was set based on expert judgment. The new α value for beryllium was used in a calibration of the beryllium PTW model by Sky Sjue. The calibration by Sjue used EOS table information to model the temperature dependence of the heat capacity. Also, the calibration by Sjue used EOS table information to model the density changes of the beryllium sample during the Hopkinson bar and quasi-static experiments. In this paper, the calibrated PTW model by Sjue is compared against experimental data and other strength models. The other strength models being considered are a PTW model calibrated by Shuh- Rong Chen and a Steinberg-Guinan type model by John Pedicini. The three strength models are used in a comparison against flyer plate and Taylor rod data. The results show that the Chen PTW model provides better agreement to this data. The Chen PTW model settings have been previously adjusted to provide a better fit to flyer plate data, whereas the Sjue PTW model has not been changed based on flyer plate data. However, the Sjue model provides a reasonable fit to flyer plate and Taylor rod data, and also gives a better match to recently analyzed Z-machine data which has a strain of about 0.35 and a strain rate of 3e5 s -1 .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Sensitivity Analysis, Reduced-order Modeling, and Optimization of a Gas-Cooled Pebble Bed Reactor using Equilibrium-Core and DLOFC Performance

This work presents and applies a workflow for performing design optimization on gas-cooled pebble-bed reactors. Based on previous research, a representative equilibrium core of a pebble-bed reactor and a depressurized loss-of-forced-cooling model are created. These applications are built using the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE), specifically utilizing Griffin, Pronghorn, and Bison. After defining design-related parameters and quantities of interest regarding reactor safety and efficiency, this multiphysics model is sampled using the MOOSE stochastic tools module. The result is a comprehensive dataset of configurations, enabling sensitivity analysis and the generation of reduced-order models. Subsequently, the dataset and reduced-order models are employed in an optimization study aimed at maximizing fuel utilization while adhering to safety and operational constraints. The optimization process leads to an improvement of fuel utilization by approximately 10\%, compared to engineering-judgment-based nominal conditions.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sensitivity analysis, surrogate modeling, and optimization of pebble-bed reactors considering normal and accident conditions

This research provides a valuable tool that streamlines the optimization process while significantly increasing its accuracy. This study creates a robust framework for reactor design optimization by incorporating comprehensive modeling using the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle, or BlueCRAB, within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). BlueCRAB is the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's code suite for non-light water reactor analysis and includes the Griffin, Pronghorn, and Bison applications. This not only improves the efficiency of the optimization process but also enhances the reliability of the results. Such a tool is essential for advancing the state-of-the-art in pebble-bed reactor technology and is critical for achieving the goals of Generation IV reactors, which aim for safe, sustainable, and economically viable nuclear energy solutions. This work presents and applies this workflow on pebble-bed reactors while considering both normal and off-normal conditions. A representative gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor at equilibrium core conditions serves as the nominal design specification for normal operation and is based on previous research. The depressurized loss-of-forced-cooling accident is deployed for off-normal conditions in this work. After defining design-related parameters and quantities of interest regarding reactor safety and performance, this multiphysics model is sampled using the MOOSE stochastic tools module. The result is a comprehensive dataset of configurations, enabling sensitivity analysis and the generation of surrogate models. Subsequently, the dataset and surrogate models are employed in two optimization studies aimed at maximizing fuel utilization and economic profit while adhering to safety and operational constraints. Performing the optimization process with fuel utilization as the metric leads to an improvement of approximately 10%, compared to engineering-judgment-based nominal conditions. The optimization on economic profit leads to an estimated increase of ~300 million USD over the lifetime of the reactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Application of Statistically Derived CPAS Parachute Parameters

The Capsule Parachute Assembly System (CPAS) Analysis Team is responsible for determining parachute inflation parameters and dispersions that are ultimately used in verifying system requirements. A model memo is internally released semi-annually documenting parachute inflation and other key parameters reconstructed from flight test data. Dispersion probability distributions published in previous versions of the model memo were uniform because insufficient data were available for determination of statistical based distributions. Uniform distributions do not accurately represent the expected distributions since extreme parameter values are just as likely to occur as the nominal value. CPAS has taken incremental steps to move away from uniform distributions. Model Memo version 9 (MMv9) made the first use of non-uniform dispersions, but only for the reefing cutter timing, for which a large number of sample was available. In order to maximize the utility of the available flight test data, clusters of parachutes were reconstructed individually starting with Model Memo version 10. This allowed for statistical assessment for steady-state drag area (CDS) and parachute inflation parameters such as the canopy fill distance (n), profile shape exponent (expopen), over-inflation factor (C(sub k)), and ramp-down time (t(sub k)) distributions. Built-in MATLAB distributions were applied to the histograms, and parameters such as scale (sigma) and location (mu) were output. Engineering judgment was used to determine the "best fit" distribution based on the test data. Results include normal, log normal, and uniform (where available data remains insufficient) fits of nominal and failure (loss of parachute and skipped stage) cases for all CPAS parachutes. This paper discusses the uniform methodology that was previously used, the process and result of the statistical assessment, how the dispersions were incorporated into Monte Carlo analyses, and the application of the distributions in trajectory benchmark testing assessments with parachute inflation parameters, drag area, and reefing cutter timing used by CPAS.

Romero, Leah M.↗

A new field-laboratory methodology for assessing human response to noise

Gross measures of community annoyance with intrusive noises have been made in a number of real environment surveys which indicate that aircraft noise may have to be reduced 30-40 EPNdb before it will generally be considered acceptable. Interview studies, however, cannot provide the precise information which is needed by noise abatement engineers of the variable human response to different types and degrees of noise exposure. A new methodological field-survey approach has been developed to provide such information. The integrated attitudes and experiences of a random sample of subjects in the real environment are obtained by a prior field survey. Then these subjects record their more precise responses to controlled noise exposures in a new realistic laboratory. The laboratory is a sound chamber furnished as a typical living room (18 ft x 14 ft) and subjects watch a color TV program while they judge simulated aircraft flyovers that occur at controlled levels and intervals. Methodological experiments indicate that subjects in the laboratory have the sensation that the airplanes are actually moving overhead across the ceiling of the chamber. It was also determined that annoyance judgments in the laboratory stabilize after three flyovers are heard prior to a judgment of annoyance.

Borsky, P. N.↗

Human Performance Contributions to Safety in Commercial Aviation

Every day in aviation, pilots, air traffic controllers, and other front-line personnel perform countless correct judgments and actions in a variety of operational environments. These judgments and actions are often the difference between an accident and a non-event. Ironically, data on these behaviors are rarely collected or analyzed. Data-driven decisions about safety management and design of safety-critical systems are limited by the available data, which influence how decision makers characterize problems and identify solutions. Large volumes of data are collected on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on behaviors that result in routine successful outcomes, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of nonrepresentative safety data. This assessment aimed to find and document “safety successes” made possible by human operators. With many Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) Programs and Projects focusing on increased automation and autonomy and decreased human involvement, failure to fully consider the human contributions to successful system performance in civil aviation represents a significant risk — a risk that has not been recognized to date. Without understanding how humans contribute to safety, any estimate of predicted safety of autonomous capabilities is incomplete and inherently suspect. Furthermore, understanding the ways in which humans contribute to safety can promote strategic interactions among safety technologies, functions, procedures and the people using them. Without this understanding, the full benefits of an integrated, optimized human/technology or autonomous system will not be realized. Historically, safety has been consistently defined in terms of the occurrence of accidents or recognized risks (i.e., in terms of things that go wrong). These adverse outcomes are explained by identifying their causes, and safety is restored by eliminating or mitigating these causes. An alternative to this approach is to focus on what goes right and identify how to replicate that process. Focusing on the rare cases of failures attributed to “human error” provides little information about why human performance routinely prevents adverse events. Hollnagel has proposed that things go right because people continuously adjust their work to match their operating conditions. These adjustments become increasingly important as systems continue to grow in complexity. Thus, the definition of safety should reflect not only “avoiding things that go wrong” but “ensuring that things go right.” The basis for safety management requires developing an understanding of everyday activities. However, few mechanisms to monitor everyday work exist in the aviation domain, which limits opportunities to learn how designs function in reality. This concept of safety thinking and safety management is reflected in the emerging field of resilience engineering. According to Hollnagel, a system is resilient if it can sustain required operations under expected and unexpected conditions by adjusting its functioning prior to, during, or following changes, disturbances, and opportunities. To explore “positive” behaviors that contribute to resilient performance in commercial aviation, the assessment team examined a range of existing sources of data about pilot and air traffic control (ATC) tower controller performance, including subjective interviews with domain experts and objective aircraft flight data records. These data were used to identify strategies that support resilient performance, methods for exploring and refining those strategies in existing data, and proposed methods for capturing and analyzing new data.

Null, Cynthia H.↗

Barriers to Developing Sustainable Supply of Lignocellulosic Feedstock for Production of Biofuels

Thirteen unique storage conditions of baled corn stover biomass were studied to examine the impact of bale type, baling technique, and storage practice on moisture control and product degradation over time. Square bales were found to outperform round bales in terms of moisture regulation and physical stability across all treatment types and at all sampling times. Within square bales, the control of moisture content in short term storage (3 months) is comparable between tarped and untarped stacks. In long term storage (9 months), bale wrapping outperforms both tarped and open stacks. In terms of overall moisture control, stack tarping allows moisture to leave initially wet bales, but allows dry bales to gain large amounts of moisture over time. Initial moisture content was found to drive self-heating and depend heavily on storage practice. While differences in dry matter loss over time are unclear, bale stability was lowest in the untarped stack, moderate in tarped stacks, and greatest in wrapped stacks. Overall, bale storage has been shown to be a dynamic system which requires special judgment to be made depending on the state of inbound material and the desired storage duration.

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